<< <i>Don't know if you guys know this, but the Fed has apparently decided not to make the M3 data public anymore.
Here is an article about it.
And the official release. >>
Any idea why the Fed is not releasing this data any more? It is very useful to know M3: back in my undergraduate economics days (80's) this was the aggragate money supply to follow. I know M1 is more popular now - but M3 gives the broadest picture of the amount of dollars out there. >>
My guess is they are gonna inflate like hell and don't want anyone to know about it anymore. So much for a transparent Fed.
What's next to keep secret? TIC? CPI? Jobs Report? Trade Deficit? GDP? Current Account Balance? When they get bad, bury them Ben (Bernanke).
When the numbers get so bad they don't want to publish them, and you cannot massage them any further to spin a positive message, it's time to make them vanish.
Broad Money Supply has increased by 4X since 1980. I guess I would not want to keep publishing that either. Average money supply growth over the past 9 years has been about 10% per year. Gee, that sure sounds like inflation to me! But the CPI (constant price index) has averaged only 2-3% over that same period. Hmmmmm? Anothe signal to be diversified into Precious Metals?
Quite frankly, our Senators are going to have to extract an absolute promise from Ben Bernanke to restore the reporting of M-3 statistical numbers during his confirmation hearings in exchange for their votes to confirm him as the new Federal Reserve Chairman.
Otherwise, they should NOT confirm him as Chairman!
<< <i>Quite frankly, our Senators are going to have to extract an absolute promise from Ben Bernanke to restore the reporting of M-3 statistical numbers during his confirmation hearings in exchange for their votes to confirm him as the new Federal Reserve Chairman.
Otherwise, they should NOT confirm him as Chairman! >>
I don't think politicians have a clue about money supply. They couldn't tell M3 from their arses. Not only that, but all the mainstream media are having a lovefest for Bernanke. They think he is the perfect replacement.
So no, I don't believe transparent reporting of M3 will be reinstituted.
<< <i>Quite frankly, our Senators are going to have to extract an absolute promise from Ben Bernanke to restore the reporting of M-3 statistical numbers during his confirmation hearings in exchange for their votes to confirm him as the new Federal Reserve Chairman.
Otherwise, they should NOT confirm him as Chairman! >>
I don't think politicians have a clue about money supply. >>
Check that: I know Ron Paul has a clue. He'll probably speak up about this.
<< <i>That's peculiar. A lot of people pay a lot of attention to M-3 (including Alan Greenspan). >>
Oh that's no problem. It will still...... EXIST ..... it just won't be available to us peons. You know....the "Revenue Units"..... formerly known as "citizens."
I would also imagine that there will be a conduit to ...oh... say.... Goldman Sachs and like them guys.
However on the bright side, they are thinking of finally making a....realistic..... CPI for us.
Based on Malaysian placemats. Hey, everyone uses placemats don't they?
I am not to worried about this, no one in Government these days can keep a secret. In addition there are hundreds of thousands of reporters that are the nosiest folks in history, and all desperate for a story. WE WILL FIND OUT!
On the other hand this and much more can be expected while the Fed and the Gov. try to print trillions to pay for their boondoggle entitlements, and pork projects.
Ron Paul is one out of hundreds. Unfortunately he alone cannot do anything about the tide. It's the hundreds of our representatives who have no clue. Since he's not in the senate he has little clout in this matter.
Goldman Sachs is tied directly into the FED via the Plunge Protection Team and Exchange Stabilization Fund. They will have the M3 statistics as will others like JPM, Citi, etc.
Patriot Act 2 bullion reporting. Has this topic been discussed here before? It's an important one for people who are diversified into bullion.
As of January 2006, anyone buying or selling bullion, or any item that gets 50% or more of its value from the bullion, must be tracked. This means if you buy a $20 MS63 saint from your local dealer at $675 he must record the transaction along with your name and SSN. Affects you as a collector whether buying or selling. It may well soften the MS64 and down Saint Market, as well as $20 Libs in MS63 and lower grades. Even early date $20 Libs in circ will be affected. This may well cause a slight shift in demand away from the lower grade $20's and into the higher grade ones.
Anyone have any additional thoughts on this? Won't investors be a little hesitant to buy or sell Saints to dealers knowing the transaction is now completely transparent to the IRS? Since dealers already keep records of such transactions its not a big deal there. But Joe Collector doesn't want to have his transaction recorded, etc. The fines and penalties are stiff for non-compliance. The article in CW indicated that dealers who sell or buy $50,000 or more per year in bullion related items must track this. I would imagine that if you don't keep records and just say, I didn't reach the $50K threshold, the IRS will only dig deeper to see if you did or did not comply. The records must be very detailed.
I've heard conflicting reports from different dealers on who is really affected. But the consensus was that it was going to be a royal pain and it was going to affect the market in same way.
I would expect more demand for MS65/66 Saints in 2006 and somewhat less for the 64's. It may also move demand into MS63-65 $10 gold pieces as well. The MS62 $10 gold pieces would fall under the reporting. 90% silver bullion coins would also get more scrutiny as would circ Morgan and Peace silver dollars for example. Fortunately Wheat pennies would be exempt (lol) as they trade for 3X the bullion content. Gold bullion? That's precisely what the FEDs are after. It's not confiscation but it's the next closest thing to FDR. I guess if you buy platinum, gold, and palladium from the US Mint at less than 2X premium to the bullion value, you will now be automatically outed to the IRS.
<< <i>The dollar is up near resistance. Does it continue its rally or will it breakdown?
>>
It breaks.
Commodities are still up and markets are still sideways. Now with bonds acting poorly the dollar will have to break, though it will compete with bonds to release pressure. There's al- ways a chance a recession would delay all these moves but they are bound to occur.
OK RR...if this is true regarding reporting bullion sales then there will be a paper generated with your name on it...probably your ssa n? This begs the question...will the IR S start up a list of these people and start a little paper trail for each account holder? Is the fed going to out all the gold bugs? This will really mess up my game. Does the same hold for sales?...if so this would be a problem. Ok, so what to do?
I dont know which way the dollar will go. If it does in fact continue its rally then it will be completing a key technical formation that has a projected level of 102.
Seems like they already had thier training. I wonder if it includes having every 20th coin a fake containing an IRS GPS device.............or is that set for 2007?
Sept, 15th - With the recent passage of the US Patriot Act many dealers in precious metals and rare coins are now subject to the regulations in Section 352 within the Patriot Act. Non-compliance would result in federal penalties (fines and imprisonment). ICTA, with the endorsement and sponsorship of the PNG, CCBMA, NSDR and Collectors Universe, has taken on the responsibility of conducting a brief coin dealer educational seminar during the upcoming Long Beach Coin Expo.
With the help of former IRS Criminal Investigation Division (CID) Special Agent (ret.) Ray Gregson this seminar will focus on Coin Dealer compliance within Section 352 of the USA PATRIOT Act. He is an expert on money laundering and compliance plans. Section 352 Applies SPECIFICALLY to Dealers in Precious Metals, Stones or Jewels ("Precious Metals" Includes Bullion AND Certain US $20's, $10's, etc.). All dealers must comply by January 1, 2006 (whether or not you do cash transactions).
On-site registration will begin at 11:15 AM on Wednesday, September 21st in room 102-A of the Long Beach Convention Center. The seminar will begin promptly at 12:00 noon, so we recommend pre-registration to avoid delayed admission. For ICTA members, the pre-registration donation is $50; at the door $75 (fee covers up to 2 individuals from the same company).
O.K. Gentletmen, I have a couple of questions here, first you don’t suppose that the Fed is just going to stop PUBLISHING the data but will still release it?
“On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease the publication of the M-3 monetary aggregate. It will also cease publishing the following components:”
Second, RR just what do you think will happen with the thousands of Ebay dealers? Are the majority of them who have Mom and Pop operations going to keep track of Gold? Today just on Ebay there were 1150 $20 Gold pieces for sale, and in a hot market these would turn every day, so nearly 500,000 a year. Talk about no personal privacy, some fool on Ebay would have your S.C. number, your credit card number, your name, your address, etc. If any body thinks this guy is going to give my S.C. number to some stranger on Ebay they can think again. So either these folks will lose that business, and Ebay will also, or there are some exemptions or loop holes?
I'm generally a big fan of diversification, so if one thinks bullion has a valid place in something like a long-term portfolio, I would recommend diversifying its form. Obviously, if your goal is catastrophe help verses something like hedging inflation or stocks, nothing can beat physical bullion (good luck trying to collect it in a real catastrophe).
Perth Mint Certificates (offer a nice regional diversification in Australia) Physical bullion (best to stick with Government issues in my view for a variety of reasons) Equities of bullion-related companies Bonds of bullion-related companies Collectible coins Virtual bullion pools or shares of physical bullion Home safe Safety deposit box
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I've heard the gold bugs story for four decades. Same ole story today as back in the 60's. But, the notion of me giving my social security number to dealers stinks a mile away, and I'll have to find away around it.
in 1968 according to Kitco, the average price of Gold (London fix) was 38.69/oz In 2005 the average price (London fix) was 436.70/oz
So, the gain was 398.01/oz or 928.72% (398.01/38.69)
Over 38 years, makes the annualized gain 24.44%
Am I missing something? If this is correct, that is not too shabby. If this is the 'same ol story', sounds like it is one story I would like to listen to.
Mark Piersall Random Collector www.marksmedals.com
I think the problem has more to do with money laundering. I was at a local show with a dealer friend when a gentleman of Mediterranean origin approached and bought all the gold he had. He had a wad of 100's about 2 inches thick. It is very easy to buy gold and sell it back out without risking much. These guys can get 95% or more on their money.
I dont see a problem with it except that I'll be damned if I'm gonna give my SSN to anyone.
Greenspan dropped the first bomb yesterday with his announcement that foreigners may not want to keep financing the trade deficit, now go ahead Alan and tell the folks out there about how much money you guys are printing to pay for entitlements, and how that debt can never be paid.
You have to love a guy that finally tells the truth just as he is walking out the door.
Alan Greenspan Warns That Foreign Investors May Sour on Bankrolling America's Trade Deficits
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan cautioned Monday that foreign investors may sour on bankrolling America's mammoth trade deficits.
“The huge trade deficits the U.S. has been running up each year cannot persist indefinitely," at some point, investors will balk at further financing," he said. The Fed chief, who retires Jan. 31 after 18-plus years running the central bank, didn't say when this might occur.
So far, foreigners have been willing to lend the United States money to finance its current account imbalances. The worry is that at some point foreigners will lose their appetite for holding dollar-denominated investments. That could cause them to unload investments in U.S. stocks and bonds, which would send prices plunging and interest rates soaring.
Gold is infamous for preserving value over a long period of time. An ounce of gold bought you a suit in colonial times, and it does so today. The homes in my neighborhood cost around 1,000 ounces of gold 30-40 years ago, the same today. It's not the type of holding or investment you compare with various time periods or to stocks and such -- it's something you hold because, according to a history much longer that the stock market, it is another way to hedge inflation over the long-run, and it offers some unique catastrophe value. No one is going to run to stocks when something really bad happens, but lots of people will be running to their gold. Gold is money, and has been so for thousands of years. Sure, that could change -- but according to what people did after 9/11 (which was flock to tangibles like real estate and bullion) I am willing to bet odds are the next time something bad happens in the world tangibles will be popular again. People flock to safety in bad times, which is a big part of the reason that Government bonds, real estate, commodities, and precious metals all went up after 9/11 and stocks went down.
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Actually, the annualized gain is about 6.8 %, assuming a 37 year period from Nov 1968 to Nov 2005.
The calculation is as follows:
(436.7/38.69)^(1/37), ie, the ratio of the two prices raised to the one-thirty-seventh power.
If the 1968 London fix is as of Jan. 1, so that the period is about 38 years, the return of course will be slightly smaller. >>
Your right...I was trying to go through the formula by memory...I knew my number was too high. For the numbers, I used annual averages for both years, not jan 1 or dec 31.
Mark Piersall Random Collector www.marksmedals.com
<< <i>Greenspan dropped the first bomb yesterday with his announcement that foreigners may not want to keep financing the trade deficit, now go ahead Alan and tell the folks out there about how much money you guys are printing to pay for entitlements, and how that debt can never be paid.
You have to love a guy that finally tells the truth just as he is walking out the door.
Alan Greenspan Warns That Foreign Investors May Sour on Bankrolling America's Trade Deficits >>
It's the first chapter in the Fed Chief handbook: "Ass covering 101"
Thanks ttown, Very interesting especially about the “ functioning financial market” for Gold.
JOHANNESBURG (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Addressing delegates to the LBMA Precious Metals Conference on its last day, Russia's Head of External Reserves Management, Maria Guegina, said gold reserves as a proportion of all reserves may be doubled. Noting that Russia presently has 5% of its national reserve portfolio invested in gold, Guegina said, “10% of gold in reserves would be appropriate”.
She gave no time frame for the change. Guegina said the change was part of an ongoing effort to optimize the composition of assets and reserves managed by the bank. The bank is also encouraging the development of the Russian domestic gold market to be a fully functioning financial market akin to bonds and currencies.
Let's not forget that the last 30 years of asset inflation, stock booms, credit, 4X increases in the money stock, gold allowed to float after 180 yrs, is an aberration all unto itself. This experiment is still very young. To those who think they will retire or get rich on general stock indices from here, because the last 20 yrs were so good, may get a rude awakening. Sure, gold has stunk for 25 years on average. But commodities don't work that way nor do stocks. You need to be in one or the other as they are in long term ascents, not corrections and declines. I laugh my a$$ off every time I hear about the 50 or 100 year track record of gold. Same with stocks.
Back to Patriot Act 2. I need to do some heavy duty surfing on the net this next weekend to dig up some specifics as it seems most dealers I have come in contact with are uninformed on this. They are taking a wait and see attitude. Detailed discussions with 2 brick and mortar types have very negative feelings. Since they both handle over $100K per yr in bullion sales alone they need to keep records of who they bought and sold to. If it's dealers, no big issue as they carry tax ID #'s and the like. But I suspect they have to record each transaction to prove they are complying. All those individuals who buy a $1000 or so in bullion every year will push that dealer closer to $50K. Even if it is all small sales, it needs to be tracked. And if you are one of the little guys buying/selling then it seems plain to me that SSN's need to be recorded. Even dealers who may be close to making the $50K threshold probably should keep the records to prove that they do not need to comply (Catch 22?). Since the dealers have to comply I don't see a way around keeping your names off their list. While they may not have to send them in to the IRS, they need to have them for inspection at any time.......or risk severe fines and/or jail time.
One local dealer I know has already been beaten up once by the IRS on record keeping. So he's taking this more seriously than most. His accountant/lawyer's view is that both sides of the transactions are recorded, regardless of the source or the amount.
Ebayers may escape this if their activity is clearly smaller scale. But a mom and pop operation doing $50K in bullion needs to report it. Joe Ebayer probably won't be bothered. He can just say his total sales for the year are under $50K and show it. But someone like Duvall Gold, or other larger ebay bullion-like sellers will be reporting. It will be interesting to see if they are gonna ask you for your SSN before you get sent the coin. Hmmm.
Must agree that giving one's SSN to Joe Ebayer is not gonna happen. I wouldn't give it to Duvall Gold either. Maybe it would be best in the future to transact with smaller vest pocket types who may not have to report. But of course they would have to provide detailed records of all their annual sales to show that bullion sales did not exceed $50K. This act should be successfull in stopping money laundering of large transactions of $50K or more. But then again, that launderer can just step up to MS65 saints, Hi Reliefs, or key dates to bury his money........problem solved. Then they can sell those coins for cash or check anytime they want. Only wish our Congressman had thought of that loophole first. Ultimately it will only hurt the people that were complying in the first place, honest coin dealers.
Dec crude oil is $56.80pbl down 18 cents; access range is 56.70 to 57.11; inventory stats at 10:30est. Venezuela fire closes natural gas plant on Lake Maracaibo; we are hearing Petroleos de Venezuela oil output is unaffected by fire. OPEC cuts est for 2005 non-OPEC output growth by 94,000 b/d but also says world oil demand shows "signs of recovery"; forecasts 2006 world oil use to rise 1.52mln bpd or 1.8c
natural gas is up 8 cents to $11.64pbl (access range is 11.485 to 11.695). Dec heating oil is up .0011 to 1.6820/gal (range is 1.6788 to 1.6890). Dec unleaded is called 3/10ths of a penny higher to 1.4590/gal (range is 1.4575 to 1.4679)...
Dec gold is flying this morning despite the dollar trading at a 27-month high vs the yen; gold is up $4.50 to $473.50 an ounce; range is 469.30 to 473.80; the yellow metal metal is being helped by short-covering, which has pushed the metal through key technical resistance levels and also from word the Bank of England lowered its forecasts for UK economic growth, and China acknowledged its first bird flu cases in humans. Silver moving higher w/ gold; Dec now 6 cents higher at $7.85 per ounce (highs of the session on the COMEX)...
Copper falls 2.6 cents to $1.906 a pound a COMEX helped by speculation that China will sell 200,000 tons from its reserves. Our contacts say that if this is true and China has that much in reserves to sell, copper prices are worth a lot less than current prices. (watch copper stocks like PD, RTP, RIO, FCX for weakness after healthy recent run-up)...
This is not Gold or silver related (though Gold is up over $9 today) I was just noticing how much GM has dropped in the last few days and I was wondering what everyone thinks about GM and their problems. They were at one time seen as the very heart of US manufacturing, production, and ingenuity. If a GM-less world really a possibility at this point? If so, is it a signpost along the path the US economy is taking? Or it is simply an isolated and/or temporary case of mis-management?
Mark Piersall Random Collector www.marksmedals.com
<< <i>This is not Gold or silver related (though Gold is up over $9 today) I was just noticing how much GM has dropped in the last few days and I was wondering what everyone thinks about GM and their problems. They were at one time seen as the very heart of US manufacturing, production, and ingenuity. If a GM-less world really a possibility at this point? If so, is it a signpost along the path the US economy is taking? Or it is simply an isolated and/or temporary case of mis-management? >>
GM is not going to go out of business. They may however go bankrupt.
GM's problem is they didnt shift enough jobs overseas. You cant continue to pay unskilled workers 50-70k per year and hope to survive.
Well, see? That's GOOD news. Now if we have a real war where the enemy wants to come HERE and shoot US, we can import cheaper tanks an bullets from China.
We should save a BUNCH of money.
(Warning: This scenario is not as cheery if China happens to be the enemy someday)
“Our industrial base is moving overseas and we are being left with fast food, amusement health care”
Man is this true, just who’s bright idea was it anyway to turn America into a service economy?
“GM is not going to go out of business. They may however go bankrupt.”
I also agree with this, GM has about 100 billion in gross assets, but who knows what the real number is for their entitlements?
I believe they will go into bankruptcy in 2006 just to negotiate out of their long-term commitments.
Many others shall be going down that path with an estimated $450 billion in unfunded liabilities. What is really strange is that these companies must report their shortfalls to the Federal pension guarantee guys, but they in turn the Feds are prohibited from telling workers that a company is in trouble?
GM is not going to go out of business. They may however go bankrupt.
GM's problem is they didnt shift enough jobs overseas. You cant continue to pay unskilled workers 50-70k per year and hope to survive.
That should get things rolling. >>
What would that mean for stockholders? Would the stock recover somewhat from its 20 year lows? Or does the outstanding stock become worthless somehow? How a company can just declare bankrupcy, get rid of its debt, and keep on going as if nothing ever happened, since in theory, creditors have first claim on assets right? I see it happen with the airlines all the time, just not sure how it works.
Mark Piersall Random Collector www.marksmedals.com
Comments
<< <i>
<< <i>Don't know if you guys know this, but the Fed has apparently decided not to make the M3 data public anymore.
Here is an article about it.
And the official release. >>
Any idea why the Fed is not releasing this data any more? It is very useful to know M3: back in my undergraduate economics days (80's) this was the aggragate money supply to follow. I know M1 is more popular now - but M3 gives the broadest picture of the amount of dollars out there. >>
My guess is they are gonna inflate like hell and don't want anyone to know about it anymore. So much for a transparent Fed.
within 6 months all hell will break out.
Camelot
bury them Ben (Bernanke).
When the numbers get so bad they don't want to publish them, and you cannot massage them any further to spin a positive message, it's time to make them vanish.
Broad Money Supply has increased by 4X since 1980. I guess I would not want to keep publishing that either. Average money supply growth over the past 9 years has been about 10% per year. Gee, that sure sounds like inflation to me! But the CPI (constant price index) has averaged only 2-3% over that same period. Hmmmmm? Anothe signal to be diversified into Precious Metals?
roadrunner
<< <i>What's next to keep secret? TIC? CPI? Jobs Report? Trade Deficit? GDP? Current Account Balance? When they get bad,
bury them Ben (Bernanke).
>>
They don't have to keep the CPI secret, everybody knows it's just fiction.
Otherwise, they should NOT confirm him as Chairman!
<< <i>Quite frankly, our Senators are going to have to extract an absolute promise from Ben Bernanke to restore the reporting of M-3 statistical numbers during his confirmation hearings in exchange for their votes to confirm him as the new Federal Reserve Chairman.
Otherwise, they should NOT confirm him as Chairman! >>
I don't think politicians have a clue about money supply. They couldn't tell M3 from their arses.
Not only that, but all the mainstream media are having a lovefest for Bernanke. They think he is
the perfect replacement.
So no, I don't believe transparent reporting of M3 will be reinstituted.
<< <i>
<< <i>Quite frankly, our Senators are going to have to extract an absolute promise from Ben Bernanke to restore the reporting of M-3 statistical numbers during his confirmation hearings in exchange for their votes to confirm him as the new Federal Reserve Chairman.
Otherwise, they should NOT confirm him as Chairman! >>
I don't think politicians have a clue about money supply. >>
Check that: I know Ron Paul has a clue. He'll probably speak up about this.
<< <i>That's peculiar. A lot of people pay a lot of attention to M-3 (including Alan Greenspan). >>
Oh that's no problem. It will still...... EXIST ..... it just won't be available to us peons. You know....the "Revenue Units"..... formerly known as "citizens."
I would also imagine that there will be a conduit to ...oh... say.... Goldman Sachs and like them guys.
However on the bright side, they are thinking of finally making a....realistic..... CPI for us.
Based on Malaysian placemats. Hey, everyone uses placemats don't they?
<< <i>Check that: I know Ron Paul has a clue. He'll probably speak up about this. >>
Possibly. I just sure hope he doesn't commit suicide or something.
Think it'd be easier if the gummint just came out and thumbed its nose at us and declared itself to be what it is.....INVINCIBLE and IRRESPONSIBLE?
In addition there are hundreds of thousands of reporters that are the nosiest folks in history, and all desperate for a story. WE WILL FIND OUT!
On the other hand this and much more can be expected while the Fed and the Gov. try to print trillions to pay for their boondoggle entitlements, and pork projects.
Goldman Sachs is tied directly into the FED via the Plunge Protection Team and Exchange Stabilization Fund. They will have the M3 statistics as will others like JPM, Citi, etc.
roadrunner
As of January 2006, anyone buying or selling bullion, or any item that gets 50% or more of its value from the bullion, must be tracked. This means if you buy a $20 MS63 saint from your local dealer at $675 he must record the transaction along with your name and SSN.
Affects you as a collector whether buying or selling. It may well soften the MS64 and down Saint Market, as well as $20 Libs in MS63 and lower grades. Even early date $20 Libs in circ will be affected.
This may well cause a slight shift in demand away from the lower grade $20's and into the higher grade ones.
Anyone have any additional thoughts on this? Won't investors be a little hesitant to buy or sell Saints to dealers knowing the transaction is now completely transparent to the IRS? Since dealers already keep records of such transactions its not a big deal there. But Joe Collector doesn't want to have his transaction recorded, etc. The fines and penalties are stiff for non-compliance.
The article in CW indicated that dealers who sell or buy $50,000 or more per year in bullion related items must track this. I would imagine that if you don't keep records and just say, I didn't reach the $50K threshold, the IRS will only dig deeper to see if you did or did not comply. The records must be very detailed.
I've heard conflicting reports from different dealers on who is really affected. But the consensus was that it was going to be a royal pain and it was going to affect the market in same way.
I would expect more demand for MS65/66 Saints in 2006 and somewhat less for the 64's. It may also move demand into MS63-65 $10 gold pieces as well. The MS62 $10 gold pieces would fall under the reporting. 90% silver bullion coins would also get more scrutiny as would circ Morgan and Peace silver dollars for example. Fortunately Wheat pennies would be exempt (lol) as they trade for 3X the bullion content. Gold bullion? That's precisely what the FEDs are after. It's not confiscation but it's the next closest thing to FDR.
I guess if you buy platinum, gold, and palladium from the US Mint
at less than 2X premium to the bullion value, you will now be automatically outed to the IRS.
roadrunner
precious metals down. As the government prints trillions of dollars,
it gets the initial full value of the new money and we peons get the
devalued worth of the new money. It seems that the Government will
attempt to keep the big secret untill after the 06 congressional elections.
True Republicans have got to be sick to their stomachs . This outdoes
whatever the worst of Democrat excesses I have seen in my life time.
As a movie star once said" Were in for a bumpy ride".
Camelot
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>The dollar is up near resistance. Does it continue its rally or will it breakdown?
>>
It breaks.
Commodities are still up and markets are still sideways. Now with bonds acting poorly the
dollar will have to break, though it will compete with bonds to release pressure. There's al-
ways a chance a recession would delay all these moves but they are bound to occur.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Something that I came across :
M3 data and some analysis
Sept, 15th - With the recent passage of the US Patriot Act many dealers in precious metals and rare coins are now subject to the regulations in Section 352 within the Patriot Act. Non-compliance would result in federal penalties (fines and imprisonment). ICTA, with the endorsement and sponsorship of the PNG, CCBMA, NSDR and Collectors Universe, has taken on the responsibility of conducting a brief coin dealer educational seminar during the upcoming Long Beach Coin Expo.
With the help of former IRS Criminal Investigation Division (CID) Special Agent (ret.) Ray Gregson this seminar will focus on Coin Dealer compliance within Section 352 of the USA PATRIOT Act. He is an expert on money laundering and compliance plans. Section 352 Applies SPECIFICALLY to Dealers in Precious Metals, Stones or Jewels ("Precious Metals" Includes Bullion AND Certain US $20's, $10's, etc.). All dealers must comply by January 1, 2006 (whether or not you do cash transactions).
On-site registration will begin at 11:15 AM on Wednesday, September 21st in room 102-A of the Long Beach Convention Center. The seminar will begin promptly at 12:00 noon, so we recommend pre-registration to avoid delayed admission. For ICTA members, the pre-registration donation is $50; at the door $75 (fee covers up to 2 individuals from the same company).
That ain't going to go over very well.
RR
“On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease the publication of the M-3 monetary aggregate. It will also cease publishing the following components:”
Second, RR just what do you think will happen with the thousands of Ebay dealers?
Are the majority of them who have Mom and Pop operations going to keep track of Gold?
Today just on Ebay there were 1150 $20 Gold pieces for sale, and in a hot market these would turn every day, so nearly 500,000 a year. Talk about no personal privacy, some fool on Ebay would have your S.C. number, your credit card number, your name, your address, etc.
If any body thinks this guy is going to give my S.C. number to some stranger on Ebay they can think again. So either these folks will lose that business, and Ebay will also, or there are some exemptions or loop holes?
If not, use GLD or IAU on the market.
Relationships, understanding, unity of effort.
Perth Mint Certificates (offer a nice regional diversification in Australia)
Physical bullion (best to stick with Government issues in my view for a variety of reasons)
Equities of bullion-related companies
Bonds of bullion-related companies
Collectible coins
Virtual bullion pools or shares of physical bullion
Home safe
Safety deposit box
Same ole story today as back in the 60's.
But, the notion of me giving my social security number to dealers stinks a mile away, and I'll have to find away around it.
RR
Maybe I'll get a tax ID for my "business" and trade gold that way. The price of one is right.
in 1968 according to Kitco, the average price of Gold (London fix) was 38.69/oz
In 2005 the average price (London fix) was 436.70/oz
So, the gain was 398.01/oz or 928.72% (398.01/38.69)
Over 38 years, makes the annualized gain 24.44%
Am I missing something? If this is correct, that is not too shabby. If this is the 'same ol story', sounds like it is one story I would like to listen to.
Random Collector
www.marksmedals.com
Depends on your time frame.
Check your money had you bought gold 17 years ago. You'd just now be breaking even.
Dead money since then.
RR
Bad vibes coming out of washington.
Camelot
+1
Bad vibes indeed...I'm not happy about this.
I dont see a problem with it except that I'll be damned if I'm gonna give my SSN to anyone.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Actually, the annualized gain is about 6.8 %, assuming a 37 year period from Nov 1968 to Nov 2005.
The calculation is as follows:
(436.7/38.69)^(1/37), ie, the ratio of the two prices raised to the one-thirty-seventh power.
If the 1968 London fix is as of Jan. 1, so that the period is about 38 years, the return of course will be slightly smaller.
You have to love a guy that finally tells the truth just as he is walking out the door.
Alan Greenspan Warns That Foreign Investors May Sour on Bankrolling America's Trade Deficits
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan cautioned Monday that foreign investors may sour on bankrolling America's mammoth trade deficits.
“The huge trade deficits the U.S. has been running up each year cannot persist indefinitely,"
at some point, investors will balk at further financing," he said. The Fed chief, who retires Jan. 31 after 18-plus years running the central bank, didn't say when this might occur.
So far, foreigners have been willing to lend the United States money to finance its current account imbalances. The worry is that at some point foreigners will lose their appetite for holding dollar-denominated investments. That could cause them to unload investments in U.S. stocks and bonds, which would send prices plunging and interest rates soaring.
<< <i>Cnitas --
Actually, the annualized gain is about 6.8 %, assuming a 37 year period from Nov 1968 to Nov 2005.
The calculation is as follows:
(436.7/38.69)^(1/37), ie, the ratio of the two prices raised to the one-thirty-seventh power.
If the 1968 London fix is as of Jan. 1, so that the period is about 38 years, the return of course will be slightly smaller. >>
Your right...I was trying to go through the formula by memory...I knew my number was too high.
For the numbers, I used annual averages for both years, not jan 1 or dec 31.
Random Collector
www.marksmedals.com
Russia Gold Reserves
<< <i>Greenspan dropped the first bomb yesterday with his announcement that foreigners may not want to keep financing the trade deficit, now go ahead Alan and tell the folks out there about how much money you guys are printing to pay for entitlements, and how that debt can never be paid.
You have to love a guy that finally tells the truth just as he is walking out the door.
Alan Greenspan Warns That Foreign Investors May Sour on Bankrolling America's Trade Deficits
>>
It's the first chapter in the Fed Chief handbook: "Ass covering 101"
Very interesting especially about the “ functioning financial market” for Gold.
JOHANNESBURG (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Addressing delegates to the LBMA Precious Metals Conference on its last day, Russia's Head of External Reserves Management, Maria Guegina, said gold reserves as a proportion of all reserves may be doubled.
Noting that Russia presently has 5% of its national reserve portfolio invested in gold, Guegina said, “10% of gold in reserves would be appropriate”.
She gave no time frame for the change.
Guegina said the change was part of an ongoing effort to optimize the composition of assets and reserves managed by the bank. The bank is also encouraging the development of the Russian domestic gold market to be a fully functioning financial market akin to bonds and currencies.
Back to Patriot Act 2. I need to do some heavy duty surfing on the net this next weekend to dig up some specifics as it seems most dealers I have come in contact with are uninformed on this. They are taking a wait and see attitude. Detailed discussions with 2 brick and mortar types have very negative feelings. Since they both handle over $100K per yr in bullion sales alone they need to keep records of who they bought and sold to. If it's dealers, no big issue as they carry tax ID #'s and the like. But I suspect they have to record each transaction to prove they are complying. All those individuals who buy a $1000 or so in bullion every year will push that dealer closer to $50K. Even if it is all small sales, it needs to be tracked. And if you are one of the little guys buying/selling then it seems plain to me that SSN's need to be recorded. Even dealers who may be close to making the $50K threshold probably should keep the records to prove that they do not need to comply (Catch 22?). Since the dealers have to comply I don't see a way around keeping your names off their list. While they may not have to send them in to the IRS, they need to have them for inspection at any time.......or risk severe fines and/or jail time.
One local dealer I know has already been beaten up once by the IRS on record keeping. So he's taking this more seriously than most.
His accountant/lawyer's view is that both sides of the transactions are recorded, regardless of the source or the amount.
Ebayers may escape this if their activity is clearly smaller scale.
But a mom and pop operation doing $50K in bullion needs to report it. Joe Ebayer probably won't be bothered. He can just say his total sales for the year are under $50K and show it. But someone like
Duvall Gold, or other larger ebay bullion-like sellers will be reporting.
It will be interesting to see if they are gonna ask you for your SSN before you get sent the coin. Hmmm.
Must agree that giving one's SSN to Joe Ebayer is not gonna happen.
I wouldn't give it to Duvall Gold either. Maybe it would be best in the future to transact with smaller vest pocket types who may not have to report. But of course they would have to provide detailed records of all their annual sales to show that bullion sales did not exceed $50K. This act should be successfull in stopping money laundering of large transactions of $50K or more. But then again, that launderer can just step up to MS65 saints, Hi Reliefs, or key dates to bury his money........problem solved. Then they can sell those coins for cash or check anytime they want. Only wish our Congressman had thought of that loophole first. Ultimately it will only hurt the people that were complying in the first place, honest coin dealers.
roadrunner
Camelot
natural gas is up 8 cents to $11.64pbl (access range is 11.485 to 11.695). Dec heating oil is up .0011 to 1.6820/gal (range is 1.6788 to 1.6890). Dec unleaded is called 3/10ths of a penny higher to 1.4590/gal (range is 1.4575 to 1.4679)...
Dec gold is flying this morning despite the dollar trading at a 27-month high vs the yen; gold is up $4.50 to $473.50 an ounce; range is 469.30 to 473.80; the yellow metal metal is being helped by short-covering, which has pushed the metal through key technical resistance levels and also from word the Bank of England lowered its forecasts for UK economic growth, and China acknowledged its first bird flu cases in humans. Silver moving higher w/ gold; Dec now 6 cents higher at $7.85 per ounce (highs of the session on the COMEX)...
Copper falls 2.6 cents to $1.906 a pound a COMEX helped by speculation that China will sell 200,000 tons from its reserves. Our contacts say that if this is true and China has that much in reserves to sell, copper prices are worth a lot less than current prices. (watch copper stocks like PD, RTP, RIO, FCX for weakness after healthy recent run-up)...
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
If a GM-less world really a possibility at this point?
If so, is it a signpost along the path the US economy is taking? Or it is simply an isolated and/or temporary case of mis-management?
Random Collector
www.marksmedals.com
super large , large and medium size companies on the ropes
and the full recession has not hit yet. Our industrial base is
moving overseas and we are being left with fast food, amusement
health care, law, retail stores selling foreign made or assembled goods,
and shopping centers. The service end of many companies is now found
in India, Pakistan and points east. If we are to get involved in a world war,
I guess we can just wait for Red China to deliver our tank turrets, and fighter parts
to us. Specifically as for GM, its entire management staff should be fired and jailed
for acts of commiddion as well as acts of ommission. They were too slow to react, short sighted
procuce the wrong mix of cars at always the wrong time and procuce cars that are less reliable
then the American worker is capable of producing.
Camelot
<< <i>This is not Gold or silver related (though Gold is up over $9 today) I was just noticing how much GM has dropped in the last few days and I was wondering what everyone thinks about GM and their problems. They were at one time seen as the very heart of US manufacturing, production, and ingenuity.
If a GM-less world really a possibility at this point?
If so, is it a signpost along the path the US economy is taking? Or it is simply an isolated and/or temporary case of mis-management? >>
GM is not going to go out of business. They may however go bankrupt.
GM's problem is they didnt shift enough jobs overseas.
That should get things rolling.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Our industrial base is moving overseas >>
Well, see? That's GOOD news. Now if we have a real war where the enemy wants to come HERE and shoot US, we can import cheaper tanks an bullets from China.
We should save a BUNCH of money.
(Warning: This scenario is not as cheery if China happens to be the enemy someday)
on them delivering our military goods. In that event,
do you think they will continue to buy our treasury bonds?
Camelot
“Our industrial base is moving overseas and we are being left with fast food, amusement
health care”
Man is this true, just who’s bright idea was it anyway to turn America into a service economy?
“GM is not going to go out of business. They may however go bankrupt.”
I also agree with this, GM has about 100 billion in gross assets, but who knows what the real number is for their entitlements?
I believe they will go into bankruptcy in 2006 just to negotiate out of their long-term commitments.
Many others shall be going down that path with an estimated $450 billion in unfunded liabilities.
What is really strange is that these companies must report their shortfalls to the Federal pension guarantee guys, but they in turn the Feds are prohibited from telling workers that a company is in trouble?
<< <i>
GM is not going to go out of business. They may however go bankrupt.
GM's problem is they didnt shift enough jobs overseas.
That should get things rolling.
American business throws away enough money by lunchtime to pay the workers for a week.
<< <i>
GM is not going to go out of business. They may however go bankrupt.
GM's problem is they didnt shift enough jobs overseas.
That should get things rolling.
What would that mean for stockholders? Would the stock recover somewhat from its 20 year lows? Or does the outstanding stock become worthless somehow? How a company can just declare bankrupcy, get rid of its debt, and keep on going as if nothing ever happened, since in theory, creditors have first claim on assets right? I see it happen with the airlines all the time, just not sure how it works.
Random Collector
www.marksmedals.com