If your ARM is at 2.4% and you are struggling with a 1500 mos interest only payment , then a 2% increase will put your payment up to 2500 or so. Many have taken equity lines to help with the payment. When equity stops even a 1% increase will cause a lot of people to stop paying.
The Bank of England's quarterly inflation report on Wednesday signalled that the UK central bank was unlikely to embark on further interest rate cuts in the near future and that investors might have been mislead in pricing in such cuts. Analysts said the report was more hawkish than expected by forecasting a recovery in UK economic growth to rates above the economy's long-running trend rate in the years 2006 and 2007 after a patch of weaker growth this year
Bottom line.....Mortgage rates are the same they were 3 years ago. Only thing that has changed is that home prices in some markets have risen at perhaps too fast a pace.
Also..
Bank of England sees weaker UK growth -- FT The Bank of England's quarterly inflation report on Wednesday signalled that the UK central bank was unlikely to embark on further interest rate cuts in the near future and that investors might have been mislead in pricing in such cuts. Analysts said the report was more hawkish than expected by forecasting a recovery in UK economic growth to rates above the economy's long-running trend rate in the years 2006 and 2007 after a patch of weaker growth this year
“(BEIJING) Gold prices may reach US$725 an ounce by 2010 from the current level of about US$435 and China may overtake India as the world's largest consumer of gold jewellery, says Graham Birch, who helps manage US$8.5 billion in mining assets for Merrill Lynch & Co in London.
Jewellery demand alone in China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, rose 13 per cent in the first quarter and investment demand increased 36 per cent, according to the World Gold Council, a producer-funded group. Chinese incomes in urban areas rose 9.5 per cent in the first half and are forecast to surge further by the end of the decade.
'Gold is a good investment too,' said Cui Lin, an analyst with an affiliate of the state-run China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association in Beijing. Chinese individuals have been allowed this year to buy and sell gold at commercial banks, offering an attractive alternative to a falling stock market.
'The purchasing power of the Chinese for dollar-denominated commodities has clearly gone up,' said George Albino, senior analyst at Orion Securities Inc in Toronto. – Bloomberg”
Treasury Market Continues to Run: The market has forged new highs; pushing yields back through to the levels seen before last week's upside jobs report surprise. Technical factors are helping the push higher and the light, vacation related volume is adding to the extension. The boost in prices was aided and abetted by the UofM report which came in worse than expected and added to a market rising on safe-haven-weekend buying as well as healthy 10-year auction results from Thursday. The shorter-maturities are lagging as the week's earlier 3- and 5-year auctions had pretty poor showings and the fact that the Federal Reserve has shown no signs of holding off on further rate hikes, which will hit those instruments harder. The Fed's report of foreign holdings in Treasury debt continued to fall (please see below for chart). The dollar has held lower against the yen while recouping some ground against the euro all on "terribly sketchy, jumpy trade." Spot gold has tumbled from the high of 449.60 to trade unchanged at 445.90, but remains 2.0% higher on the week in the face of energy cost induced inflationary pressures. Front month crude oil has slithered higher as well, taking prices up to 66.95 and currently are trading 66.85 (+1.00). The energy market is feeling continued reverberations from the ongoing refinery concerns as the old gray plants just ain't what they used to be especially at near full capacity.
Well I have sold off my stocks (not all) and transferred one of my IRA $$ to Sterling Trust in Waco. I have about $31,000 I was going to distribute as follows with the following letter to a few dealers next week:
<< <i>I am converting an IRA into precious metals and I am soliciting bids to provide them. I have $31,000 US that will be spent in the next 48 hrs on the following.
40 - Gold 1 oz. American Eagles
16 – 100oz silver bars Englehard or JM only
Unknown – Silver 1 oz. American Eagles
The seller that can provide items 1 and 2 and the largest number of item #3 silver eagles will be awarded the bid and payment will be sent by Sterling Trust upon receipt of the invoice. The total should not exceed $31,000 US and will include ALL costs including insured shipment to Sterling Trust of WACO, Texas.
Please provide your quote in reply to this email. Bids will be accepted until the end of day Wednesday Aug. 17. The winning bid will be notified by 7:00AM PST Thursday Aug. 18 and the agreement finalized. >>
A) Is this the proper way to submit a bid? Should I buy now or wait till rates go up C) I was thinking Hanes Tulving, Bullion Direct , any others??
Can you convert an IRA at 52 yrs old to precious metals without a penalty?
There is no penalty as long as you keep the assets in an IRA. Many people think their IRA is a fixed vehicle that can not be changed. You can invest in a multitude of asset classes just as long as you keep the money with a custodian. That custodian can be a bank, mutual fund co., or brokerage firm.
You will only face a penalty if you take a distribution from your IRA and do not roll it back into a qualified plan within 60 days.
CC-- I have no advice on your situation. I have never placed metals into an IRA. My preference has always been mining stocks or metals mutual funds as they are much more liquid. Personally I see no advantage to owning the metal itself.
As I recall, certain forms of gold bullion are allowed into IRAs, but you cannot take possession of the gold and maintain the IRA. The custodian has it and I believe they charge a storage fee last time I checked.
Cohodk, you bring up a very interesting point...what's liquid and what's not.
I postulate that in an adverse situation, the banks will be either closed or inaccessible because of a run. It would follow that stocks may not be that liquid in a situation like that nor would bonds or mutual funds since those funds can't go into an account where they would be accessible. Is physical metal the only safe place to be in an adverse situation. Not that I'm contemplating a melt down but being in Houston is a lot like being in NY because we do have strategic assets (petroleum based) here and things could get wierd so, if we have to run...what is the best way to have assets? Is cash in the matress still king? What to do, what to do. Thanks for any reply.
Yes, In a serious meltdown banks, brokerage firms, mutual funds et al, would probably be closed for a short time--a matter of just days. The FED is no going to allow banks to be closed for an extended period of time as it know lack of liquidity would exaccerbate the problem. Interest rates would drop like a stone. Bond prices would go up. The stock market would probably take a serious hit and you would lose money over the short term. The markets that trade bullion would also be affected. The price of gold/silver may or may not go up. You should study the financial markets shortly after 9/11. This was a good test of our financial system and I believe they handled it quite well.
The problem with holding the physical metal is an IRA is that it is not only illiquid but unaccessable. How can you get your hands on those gold coins?
IMO if you expect a major meltdown then it is best to hold cash under the mattress. It is highly unlikely that merchants or services would accept gold as payment. They are however familiar with the US greenback and would almost without question accept it. Only an event that would call into question the existance of the USA would people prefer gold/silver over dollars. And in this scenerio it would probably be best to have a large stockpile of water, food, gasoline, a generator, a few selected weapons and lots of ammo.
That said...Is is a good idea to hold a few 1000 $ in gold coins...absolutely. It is always good to be prepared.
WOW this is new, are any of you having this happen? How many coins have I charged to my credit card over the past several years, perhaps 150.
Like many of you I use my charge card to get the job done and then pay the sucker off as soon as possible. So yesterday I buy this Bust Half, for medium 4 figures, and the dealer calls me today and says hey man your charge has been refused. So I think well he got the number wrong, and we go over it again, nope it’s right, and he runs it again, REJECTED. I give him another card, it goes through, and we are done.
When I called the card company they said that even with long time customers they were going to start verifying all medium to large charges due to the huge increase in IDENTITY THEFT. They gave me a toll free number, and told me to call in advance before I purchased any large items. Pretty crazy huh? So much for fast computerized charges?
NEW YORK, Aug 12 (Reuters) - A spike in China's holdings of U.S. agency debt to levels near their U.S. Treasury investment is helping drive Bush administration efforts to slash Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage portfolios, financial services consultant Federal Financial Analytics Inc. said on Friday.
Problems in either the Chinese banking or U.S. government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) systems that spur China's dumping of U.S. agencies could slam debt prices and cause a ripple effect in other markets.
China's U.S. agencies holdings are double what they were three years ago, leaving its "fragile" banking system vulnerable to GSE shocks, according to Federal Financial's report called "The China Syndrome."
"A worry is that they (China) would sell their holdings of GSE bonds because of problems in the Chinese banking system, and this would have a one-way effect on the GSE bond market" by hoisting extra supply on it, Basil Petrou, Federal Financial's managing partner, told Reuters.
"The other one is whether there would be a problem in the GSEs themselves which would generate a decision by the Chinese to sell their GSE bonds," he added. China holds $144.5 billion of U.S. agency debt as of May, near the $150 billion of Treasuries held, Federal Financial said, citing Treasury data. That represents 25 percent of all agency bonds versus 12 percent of all Treasuries in foreign hands.
Fishcooker it sure did. I went down to the bank to withdraw some cash and it was limited they would allow only I think $100 and that was it. I remember how it upset me for no one was ready for what occured. I got my cash and went and stockpiled on food, as I lived in the area where the first people were found to be tied to Bin Laden and I also live one mile from the Mosque and believe me you could not get anywhere near that mosque for people had surrounded it and let me tell you in this area it was touch and go....In times yes CASH IS KING!
Seems like silver coins would go over better with merchants than gold coins. Unless you have alot of the smallest denominations, gold coins would be too valuable to make simple purchases with. We don't walk around using $1,000 bills to make the small purchases of food, water, gasoline, or whatever is needed. I guess if you had a Hummer and needed to fill up the gas tank a small gold coin would be appropriate, but a loaf of bread or fresh tomato might cost three silver quarters. Seems like large gold coins would be overkill except for making your house payment.
Satisfaction lies in the effort, not in the attainment. Full effort is full victory. -Gandhi
<< <i>Well this is more than a little worrisome! >>
It sure is, GOLDSAINT.
The towers of intellect in the US decided in a fit of jingoistic stupidity to raise a big stink about China buying Unocal. Fer chrissakes, what could be BETTER? Have them spend some of their dollars on stock that we could NATIONALIZE if China got a bit big for their britches.
Who in the world (USA I mean) is so damn stupid as to want to keep the Chinese holding only the CURRENCY? Something they can dump in about 7 seconds on the Treasury market. Jeeezzzzuzzzz, we got some dopes runnin da show.
The USA must be in a DUMB race. Well, we got da president fer it.
dlimb2, we had a large number of people fail to receive paychecks that week. While that problem pales in comparison to the central events of 9/11, the realities of not being paid & not having banking access tend to alter one's financial strategy a bit.
TS, this ones for you...
"it's time for all Democrats to come together and block the sale of UNOCAL to China" - www.democrats.com
OH its great to know the deficit will only be 300 billion and not 400 billion........gee and I thought we were in trouble. Of course it doesn't count the "off budget" obligations.
Treasury Market Blasts Higher on Data and Technicals: The treasuries have ramped higher, running yields off to the lowest levels in August, defiantly chasing the yields lower even as the most recent jobs report showed increased hiring and the Federal Reserve marches on with its "measured" rate hikes. The Fed wants long-term yields higher? Shame, it is a conundrum. The day has seen a "steady up-tick in volume," compared to recent sessions, as well as some faster options action. The belly of the curve has seen the widest swings with the 5- and 10-years carving out 8 basis points apiece as the 2- and 30-years lag. The early CPI data had initially weighed on prices, but the industrial production and capacity utilization surprises let the genie out of the bottle and technical components stepped into play. The market will go after the 4.2% point on the 10's before the day is over and start obsessing with 4.185%. The curve has hung near the mid-19 level after a couple of dips narrower. Early options players stepped in buying-up directional out-of-the-money positions on the cheap. A fund came in and scooped up nearly 8K of the Dec 10-year 112 calls when ahead of the rally, and they are already pocketing a nice chunk-of-change on the play. Crude oil has been slipping off the session highs and is currently trading 66.15 (-012). The dollar has been stumbling around, giving back some ground on the euro, which has headed back to 1.2350 after a brief stint below 1.23. The gold has used the opportunity to recover some ground, pushing the spot back to a hair under 445 and is now back off at 444.65 (+2.25).
Topstuf, forget the 22 long rifle give me a double barrel shot gun. I have 6 rifles my father left me...one shootgun, an 1889 double barrel Remington in almost new condition, which my grandfather gave him when he was 9.
Yepper, looks like the triple whammy. Read in the WSJ that the car dealers have a glut of used cars on the lots because so many people took the bait on the Employee Pricing and traded in their old rides. Those that didn't buy new ones are jumpint into the used market to "trade up". So folks have just signed up for a bunch of 3-4 to 5 year debt in the last few months. Fed raised rates and will continue to do so until they are comfy and this is gonna nab the ARM guys. Gasoline is up a fair amount and continuing that way. So...gas, cars, and houses. Man, people just gotta be tapped by now.
<< <i>The DEPRESSION that is now unfolding this late summer will be enormous. >>
Depression? Do you really believe all this doom you are forecasting? Did the tech bubble cause a depression? The housing bubble won't either. Economic downturn maybe, but we are a long way from a depression.
<< <i>NO ONE.....is ready for it. Boomers will wonder what they were thinking when they did NOT buy bonds that yielded 5% >>
No One? I assume with the way you talk you're ready at least. Do you really think all the baby boomers have no money? Do you think none of their portfolio is staked in bonds? Are you the only person with a conservative investment strategy? I find that unlikely. "A good number of", or "many" would be more appropiate then talking in absolutes.
I have been saying since this thread was started that rates were not going to go up. There are too many people in need of income. Too much demand for cash flow. Remember in Japan savings rates went under 1%. I dont think we will go that low however I can see 3% on the 30yr.
This still doesnt mean depression. But we should be prepared for a continuation of contraction/expansion that we have seen over the past 5 years to continue for quite some time. All in all it hasnt been that bad out there, granted the housing market has helped to a great extent.
The difference I see is that while home prices in some areas may bust the effect will not be any greater than the collapse stock market in 2000-2001.
Many people saw their stock investments decline by 70% or more. I think housing prices may only give up their gains in the last year. In some areas this will be dramatic... 15-40%. This may and probably will cause a recession, I dont believe it will be especially severe.
In the end people always need someplace to live. They dont need stocks or bonds.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Americans who avoided driving, eating, drinking and smoking in July experienced no inflation whatsoever. Unfortunately, everyone else felt a serious pinch. The department's consumer price index, a widely followed inflation gauge, rose 0.5 percent in July, the biggest monthly increase since April. That left overall consumer prices 3.2 percent higher last month than they were a year earlier, the report showed. Economists like to throw out energy, but the question is, why X it out when it is not temporary," said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics in Boulder, Colorado.
By HILLARY CHURA New York Times In January, baby boomers will start hitting 60 at a rate of more than 4 million a year. The number of Americans 55 and older is expected to grow from 67 million this year to 97 million by 2020.
<< <i>But all the consumer SPENDING has been on money from home equity loans. That will ..... stop..... even if the houses just ....plateau.
We bin on a real toot. Time to pay up. >>
I agree there has been money taken in the form of home equity loans however I liken this buying stocks on margin. There are a few overextended individuals who will be killed however it is not enough to destroy the economy.
A question to the board.......How many of you took out home equity loans to fund frivilous activities or purchases? And by frivilious I mean items that you would not have ordinarily bought.
I think the CU Forum as a whole is far more conservative and into safer physical assets (coins, etc.) than Joe Average on the street. Our small sample is certainly not indicative of mainsteam USA imo. most people think we're nuts to consider coins, never mind Precious metals or other hard assets.
We may eventually see lower rates but I think the FED is going to war against inflation for a while and rates will only be going up for at least a year...possibly longer. They will print money until the cows come home as their primary defensive move.
"Looking at a 1-year chart, Silver look pretty darned tapped out. What say ye?"
Seems to be a buying opportunity only because silver is holding on the low end of its range but I still just don't see $8 silver on the near horizion, but I sure wish I could.
I just picked up silver and gold for my IRA, I'm thinking for the long term 10-20 year range, Definite up direction even if the next couple of years drops or levels off.
"It's the end of the world. True. No doubt about it. Goners. Kaput."
Nah, life is good. I'm sure everyone that has their head in the game has their metal by now and they are on Fixed Rate everythings, have a little cash stashed away, and are stocked up for what ever. This thread has really helped some folks, I'm sure.
I was reading an op-ed thing today that talked about the U.S. populace thinking cheap gas, medical care, and subsidized housing were entitlements...NOT! The cheap stuff, freebies, and subsidies seem to be starting to thin out some.
What a messy economy! Are we now going to have a recession right in the middle of our stagflation period?
Look at the news just the last few days,
Alan Greenspan predicted here on Saturday that the nation's frenzied housing boom - and the consumer spending that it has spurred - is near an end.
Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Katrina may cost insurers more than $30 billion, which would make it the most expensive storm to ever hit the U.S., a storm modeler said. SINGAPORE (Reuters) - U.S. crude prices surged 7 percent to a new record high above $70 a barrel in opening trade on Monday as Hurricane Katrina, one of the most powerful U.S. storms ever, shut in oil production and closed refineries.
Soaring Fuel Prices Finally Prompt U.S. Consumers to Cut Back.
A Hedge Fund Falls Off the Face of the Earth HELLO, this is Dan Marino," says a weary, raspy voice on an answering machine. Mr. Marino, the chief financial officer of the Bayou Group, a $400 million hedge-fund and brokerage firm that is under investigation by state and federal authorities in Connecticut.
The Associated Press Sunday, August 28, 2005 A chorus of economists, government officials and elected leaders both conservative and liberal are warning that America's nonstop borrowing has put the nation on the road to a major fiscal disaster _ one that could unleash plummeting home values, rocketing interest rates, lost jobs, stagnating wages and threats to government services ranging from health care to law enforcement.
Comments
Oh geez, I am about to close on a oceanfront 1 bedroom condominium between Lahaina and Kapalua, Maui!
The Bank of England's quarterly inflation report on Wednesday signalled that the UK central bank was unlikely to embark on further interest rate cuts in the near future and that investors might have been mislead in pricing in such cuts. Analysts said the report was more hawkish than expected by forecasting a recovery in UK economic growth to rates above the economy's long-running trend rate in the years 2006 and 2007 after a patch of weaker growth this year
Bottom line.....Mortgage rates are the same they were 3 years ago. Only thing that has changed is that home prices in some markets have risen at perhaps too fast a pace.
Also..
Bank of England sees weaker UK growth -- FT
The Bank of England's quarterly inflation report on Wednesday signalled that the UK central bank was unlikely to embark on further interest rate cuts in the near future and that investors might have been mislead in pricing in such cuts. Analysts said the report was more hawkish than expected by forecasting a recovery in UK economic growth to rates above the economy's long-running trend rate in the years 2006 and 2007 after a patch of weaker growth this year
The dollar is still the currency of preference.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Jewellery demand alone in China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, rose 13 per cent in the first quarter and investment demand increased 36 per cent, according to the World Gold Council, a producer-funded group. Chinese incomes in urban areas rose 9.5 per cent in the first half and are forecast to surge further by the end of the decade.
'Gold is a good investment too,' said Cui Lin, an analyst with an affiliate of the state-run China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association in Beijing. Chinese individuals have been allowed this year to buy and sell gold at commercial banks, offering an attractive alternative to a falling stock market.
'The purchasing power of the Chinese for dollar-denominated commodities has clearly gone up,' said George Albino, senior analyst at Orion Securities Inc in Toronto. – Bloomberg”
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>I am converting an IRA into precious metals and I am soliciting bids to provide them. I have $31,000 US that will be spent in the next 48 hrs on the following.
40 - Gold 1 oz. American Eagles
16 – 100oz silver bars Englehard or JM only
Unknown – Silver 1 oz. American Eagles
The seller that can provide items 1 and 2 and the largest number of item #3 silver eagles will be awarded the bid and payment will be sent by Sterling Trust upon receipt of the invoice. The total should not exceed $31,000 US and will include ALL costs including insured shipment to Sterling Trust of WACO, Texas.
Please provide your quote in reply to this email. Bids will be accepted until the end of day Wednesday Aug. 17. The winning bid will be notified by 7:00AM PST Thursday Aug. 18 and the agreement finalized.
>>
A) Is this the proper way to submit a bid?
C) I was thinking Hanes Tulving, Bullion Direct , any others??
Any other last minute suggestions??
There is no penalty as long as you keep the assets in an IRA. Many people think their IRA is a fixed vehicle that can not be changed. You can invest in a multitude of asset classes just as long as you keep the money with a custodian. That custodian can be a bank, mutual fund co., or brokerage firm.
You will only face a penalty if you take a distribution from your IRA and do not roll it back into a qualified plan within 60 days.
CC-- I have no advice on your situation. I have never placed metals into an IRA. My preference has always been mining stocks or metals mutual funds as they are much more liquid. Personally I see no advantage to owning the metal itself.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I postulate that in an adverse situation, the banks will be either closed or inaccessible because of a run. It would follow that stocks may not be that liquid in a situation like that nor would bonds or mutual funds since those funds can't go into an account where they would be accessible. Is physical metal the only safe place to be in an adverse situation. Not that I'm contemplating a melt down but being in Houston is a lot like being in NY because we do have strategic assets (petroleum based) here and things could get wierd so, if we have to run...what is the best way to have assets? Is cash in the matress still king? What to do, what to do. Thanks for any reply.
The problem with holding the physical metal is an IRA is that it is not only illiquid but unaccessable. How can you get your hands on those gold coins?
IMO if you expect a major meltdown then it is best to hold cash under the mattress. It is highly unlikely that merchants or services would accept gold as payment. They are however familiar with the US greenback and would almost without question accept it. Only an event that would call into question the existance of the USA would people prefer gold/silver over dollars. And in this scenerio it would probably be best to have a large stockpile of water, food, gasoline, a generator, a few selected weapons and lots of ammo.
That said...Is is a good idea to hold a few 1000 $ in gold coins...absolutely. It is always good to be prepared.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
How many coins have I charged to my credit card over the past several years, perhaps 150.
Like many of you I use my charge card to get the job done and then pay the sucker off as soon as possible. So yesterday I buy this Bust Half, for medium 4 figures, and the dealer calls me today and says hey man your charge has been refused. So I think well he got the number wrong, and we go over it again, nope it’s right, and he runs it again, REJECTED. I give him another card, it goes through, and we are done.
When I called the card company they said that even with long time customers they were going to start verifying all medium to large charges due to the huge increase in IDENTITY THEFT. They gave me a toll free number, and told me to call in advance before I purchased any large items. Pretty crazy huh? So much for fast computerized charges?
NEW YORK, Aug 12 (Reuters) - A spike in China's holdings of U.S. agency debt to levels near their U.S. Treasury investment is helping drive Bush administration efforts to slash Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage portfolios, financial services consultant Federal Financial Analytics Inc. said on Friday.
Problems in either the Chinese banking or U.S. government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) systems that spur China's dumping of U.S. agencies could slam debt prices and cause a ripple effect in other markets.
China's U.S. agencies holdings are double what they were three years ago, leaving its "fragile" banking system vulnerable to GSE shocks, according to Federal Financial's report called "The China Syndrome."
"A worry is that they (China) would sell their holdings of GSE bonds because of problems in the Chinese banking system, and this would have a one-way effect on the GSE bond market" by hoisting extra supply on it, Basil Petrou, Federal Financial's managing partner, told Reuters.
"The other one is whether there would be a problem in the GSEs themselves which would generate a decision by the Chinese to sell their GSE bonds," he added. China holds $144.5 billion of U.S. agency debt
as of May, near the $150 billion of Treasuries held, Federal Financial said, citing Treasury data. That represents 25 percent of all agency bonds versus 12 percent of all Treasuries in foreign hands.
Gold and silver did not matter the week after 9/11/01. Cash did.
<< <i>Well this is more than a little worrisome! >>
It sure is, GOLDSAINT.
The towers of intellect in the US decided in a fit of jingoistic stupidity to raise a big stink about China buying Unocal. Fer chrissakes, what could be BETTER? Have them spend some of their dollars on stock that we could NATIONALIZE if China got a bit big for their britches.
Who in the world (USA I mean) is so damn stupid as to want to keep the Chinese holding only the CURRENCY? Something they can dump in about 7 seconds on the Treasury market. Jeeezzzzuzzzz, we got some dopes runnin da show.
The USA must be in a DUMB race. Well, we got da president fer it.
TS, this ones for you...
"it's time for all Democrats to come together and block the sale of UNOCAL to China"
- www.democrats.com
Now, let's keep this on Gold, shall we?
OH its great to know the deficit will only be 300 billion and not 400 billion........gee and I thought we were in trouble. Of course it doesn't count the "off budget" obligations.
And Gold drops over 3 bucks on the "good news"
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Boomers will wonder what they were thinking when they did NOT buy bonds that yielded 5% >>
I take that to mean you think rates will go DOWN!!!!!!!
<< <i>Fed raised rates and will continue to do so until they are comfy and this is gonna nab the ARM guys. >>
You think rates are gonna go up!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Confusion
<< <i>The DEPRESSION that is now unfolding this late summer will be enormous. >>
Depression? Do you really believe all this doom you are forecasting? Did the tech bubble cause a depression? The housing bubble won't either. Economic downturn maybe, but we are a long way from a depression.
<< <i>NO ONE.....is ready for it. Boomers will wonder what they were thinking when they did NOT buy bonds that yielded 5% >>
No One? I assume with the way you talk you're ready at least. Do you really think all the baby boomers have no money? Do you think none of their portfolio is staked in bonds? Are you the only person with a conservative investment strategy? I find that unlikely. "A good number of", or "many" would be more appropiate then talking in absolutes.
TorinoCobra71
'Energizer compatible'
I have been saying since this thread was started that rates were not going to go up.
There are too many people in need of income. Too much demand for cash flow. Remember in Japan savings rates went under 1%. I dont think we will go that low however I can see 3% on the 30yr.
This still doesnt mean depression. But we should be prepared for a continuation of contraction/expansion that we have seen over the past 5 years to continue for quite some time. All in all it hasnt been that bad out there, granted the housing market has helped to a great extent.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The difference I see is that while home prices in some areas may bust the effect will not be any greater than the collapse stock market in 2000-2001.
Many people saw their stock investments decline by 70% or more. I think housing prices may only give up their gains in the last year. In some areas this will be dramatic... 15-40%. This may and probably will cause a recession, I dont believe it will be especially severe.
In the end people always need someplace to live. They dont need stocks or bonds.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Americans who avoided driving, eating, drinking and smoking in July experienced no inflation whatsoever. Unfortunately, everyone else felt a serious pinch. The department's consumer price index, a widely followed inflation gauge, rose 0.5 percent in July, the biggest monthly increase since April. That left overall consumer prices 3.2 percent higher last month than they were a year earlier, the report showed.
Economists like to throw out energy, but the question is, why X it out when it is not temporary," said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics in Boulder, Colorado.
By HILLARY CHURA
New York Times
In January, baby boomers will start hitting 60 at a rate of more than 4 million a year.
The number of Americans 55 and older is expected to grow from 67 million this year to 97 million by 2020.
<< <i>But all the consumer SPENDING has been on money from home equity loans.
That will ..... stop..... even if the houses just ....plateau.
We bin on a real toot. Time to pay up. >>
I agree there has been money taken in the form of home equity loans however I liken this buying stocks on margin. There are a few overextended individuals who will be killed however it is not enough to destroy the economy.
A question to the board.......How many of you took out home equity loans to fund frivilous activities or purchases? And by frivilious I mean items that you would not have ordinarily bought.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
safer physical assets (coins, etc.) than Joe Average on the street.
Our small sample is certainly not indicative of mainsteam USA imo.
most people think we're nuts to consider coins, never mind Precious metals or other hard assets.
We may eventually see lower rates but I think the FED is going to war against inflation for a while and rates will only be going up for at least a year...possibly longer. They will print money until the cows come home as their primary defensive move.
roadrunner
When 10 year olds are all running around with cell phones and Nike shoes, being "tapped out" is a tough sell.
Looking at a 1-year chart, Silver look pretty darned tapped out. What say ye?
Yep, when so many just bought in with 0 down
Seems to be a buying opportunity only because silver is holding on the low end of its range but I still just don't see $8 silver on the near horizion, but I sure wish I could.
<< <i>Silver is down to 6.67, any ideas whats happening?? >>
You bought it. Thats what happened. Just kidding. Prices usually drop as soon as I buy also.
Concern is economic weakness. That is a double whammy for silver as it means no inflation and slowing demand.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Nah, life is good. I'm sure everyone that has their head in the game has their metal by now and they are on Fixed Rate everythings, have a little cash stashed away, and are stocked up for what ever. This thread has really helped some folks, I'm sure.
I was reading an op-ed thing today that talked about the U.S. populace thinking cheap gas, medical care, and subsidized housing were entitlements...NOT! The cheap stuff, freebies, and subsidies seem to be starting to thin out some.
Enjoy!
Look at the news just the last few days,
Alan Greenspan predicted here on Saturday that the nation's frenzied housing boom - and the consumer spending that it has spurred - is near an end.
Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Katrina may cost insurers more than $30 billion, which would make it the most expensive storm to ever hit the U.S., a storm modeler said.
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - U.S. crude prices surged 7 percent to a new record high above $70 a barrel in opening trade on Monday as Hurricane Katrina, one of the most powerful U.S. storms ever, shut in oil production and closed refineries.
Soaring Fuel Prices Finally Prompt U.S. Consumers to Cut Back.
A Hedge Fund Falls Off the Face of the Earth HELLO, this is Dan Marino," says a weary, raspy voice on an answering machine. Mr. Marino, the chief financial officer of the Bayou Group, a $400 million hedge-fund and brokerage firm that is under investigation by state and federal authorities in Connecticut.
The Associated Press
Sunday, August 28, 2005
A chorus of economists, government officials and elected leaders both conservative and liberal are warning that America's nonstop borrowing has put the nation on the road to a major fiscal disaster _ one that could unleash plummeting home values, rocketing interest rates, lost jobs, stagnating wages and threats to government services ranging from health care to law enforcement.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870