Ahhhh.....so THAT'S where you go to have your brain washed!!! I was wondering........
The Free-Market's solution to peak oil has been to encourage the burning of as much as possible in the shortest amount of time therefore ensuring that we'd be caught totally unprepared and suffer the consequences. I don't give a rat's ass if this statment applies to next week or 30 years from now, the free market WILL result in vast amounts of human misery if profit remains it's only motivation.
No matter how much you hate government, it's still the only way to force corporations to do the right thing. The free-market of the south shed blood over keeping slaves, and the free market of the industrial north shed blood over keeping child labor. That should be all the evidence you need, but Reagan did his job well thus we have websites like this one.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
Ahhhh.....so THAT'S where you go to have your brain washed!!! I was wondering........
The Free-Market's solution to peak oil has been to encourage the burning of as much as possible in the shortest amount of time therefore ensuring that we'd be caught totally unprepared and suffer the consequences. I don't give a rat's ass if this statment applies to next week or 30 years from now, the free market WILL result in vast amounts of human misery if profit remains it's only motivation.
No matter how much you hate government, it's still the only way to force corporations to do the right thing. The free-market of the south shed blood over keeping slaves, and the free market of the industrial north shed blood over keeping child labor. That should be all the evidence you need, but Reagan did his job well thus we have websites like this one. >>
Poor little man/woman/girl?/boy?, there you go again .
Things are never as good as we would wish. nor as bad a we might fear.
I made the point previously that the last 100 years or so of American life is an extreme anomaly that has no parallel in human history, with a few possible short exceptions during the British and Roman empires. I'm not suprised that most Americans have faith that we'll be okay and whatever problems we may face will be overcome with "good old American spirit".
Cheap oil has no solution. Neither does an economy dependent on gigantic increases in debt. We're headed for a period of human history that has no previous examples to guide us. We can't afford to assume everything will be okay, we have to plan for the worst possible future NOW even if we assume that all these problems will be solved. '
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
DETROIT (AFP) - Weak sales, heavy costs and stiff competition from Asian competitors have taken a huge bite out of the US auto industry.
The Big Three have fought back with aggressive pricing campaigns that offer consumers employee discounts, but many analysts say incentives will not be enough.
And after General Motors Corp. announced its second quarter of major losses this week, while Ford Motor Co. managed to squeeze a profit despite 906 million dollars in losses in its North American automotive business, some analysts are predicting that recent job cuts are just the tip of the iceberg
"I don't think GM is going disappear. But in order for GM to become a healthier company, it has to become a smaller company," said Joe Barker, an analyst with CSM Worldwide in Farmington Hills, Michigan.
"Ford has the same problem. They have to become a smaller company," he said.
Both Ford and GM said last week that they are looking at closing more plants, while GM said it is also planning to purchase more material in Asia and Ford said it will be making additional cuts to its salaried workforce.
But current plans offered by GM management are not sufficient to help turn the company around, said professor Peter Morici of the University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business.
"GM makes cars and trucks that cannot sell for a profit, and that is not likely to change anytime soon," he said. "Without a radical change in strategy and leadership, losses will mount up, the company will run out of cash and bondholders and banks will be left holding the bag."
Morici's prediction for GM? "The road ahead: a trip through Chapter 11," referring to the US bankruptcy protection law.
John Casesa, the top auto analyst for Merrill Lynch, said the 1.2-billion-dollar quarterly loss at GM's North American operations sets the stage for more changes inside the company.
"The loss, remarkably large in the seasonally strong second quarter, comes as pressure is mounting for major change at the company," Casesa added in a research note.
"The results reflect both a revenue problem and a cost problem," Casesa added.
Problems at Ford and GM are putting pressure on DaimlerChrysler, which had been posting better results due to a strong lineup of vehicles and solid cost cuts, Fitch Ratings Service said.
"Pricing pressures and (competitors') capacity expansion will continue to limit margin expansion and could neutralize at least parts of the operational improvements achieved at the Chrysler Group," Fitch noted in its report on DaimlerChrysler.
The Big Three have a competitive disadvantage against their Asian competitors because of the "legacy costs" of pension and health care benefits owed to a large group of retirees. GM suffers the most because of the sheer size of the company, and the degree to which it has shrunk.
GM currently employs about 110,000 union members, compared with about 400,000 union members 20 years ago. The company is currently in discussions with the United Auto Workers (UAW) union to find ways to reduce health care costs, which are estimated to be 5.6 billion dollars in 2005.
On Friday, the UAW said it had put together a team of analysts to examine GM's finances in order to determine if concessions are necessary. However, the union has often said that cost savings can be found without reopening the current contract.
Regardless of the outcome of talks with the union, GM faces a long road back to profitability, said Brian Johnson, analyst for Sanford Bernstein.
"The market is looking ahead to next year and hoping for good news then," he said. "The fourth quarter may firm up some, but not enough to increase profitability much."
"The survey, conducted by Hewitt Associates, a global human resources services firm, revealed that 45 percent of 200,000 individuals participating in 401(k) plans, opted to cash out of the retirement plan after leaving their job. "
Not alltogether unexpected information...from MSN Money today.
The Great Depression started with the auto industry faltering and massive layoffs. The massive layoffs haven't occured yet, although GM is letting 25,000 go and I think Ford is gonna drop 9000 or so. Stay tuned!
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
OK I'm convinced. But should I buy gold and silver now or will the price come down in a recession? How do I convert my IRA to gold and anyone here recommend a "custodian" who will actully have my gold in thier hand, seperate from others/
I'm buying silver metal right now. It's under $7 an ounce and the fundamentals are exceptional. I'm supplimenting it with a few gold purchases and will probably buy a lot in San Francisco this weekend.
Here's some information about putting metals into an IRA:
GOLD: At present, gold bars with a purity of 24 karat (0.995+ fineness) are allowed into an IRA. They must be hallmarked by a NYMEX- or COMEX-approved refiner/assayer. These bars come in the following sizes: 1 ounce, 10 ounces, kilo (32.15 ounces), 100 ounces, and 400 ounces. Gold coins having a purity of 24 karat (0.9999 fineness) are the only ones allowed in an IRA, with the exception of the 22 karat US Gold Eagle. Readily acceptible for gold IRAs are bullion coins from Australia, Austria and Canada. The South African Krugerrand is not allowed -- it is a 22 karat bullion coin.
IRA information SILVER: Regarding silver investments, only silver coins and bars with 0.999+ fineness are allowed. These include the 1 oz. US Silver Eagle, Canadian Silver Maple Leaf, and the Mexican Silver Libertad bullion coins. Investors can purchase 100 oz. silver bars and also 1000 oz. silver bars. Pre-1965 bags of US silver coins (dimes, quarters, half dollars, and silver dollars) are not allowed in an IRA because their alloy contains only 90% silver and thus does not meet the fineness standard.
You'll also need a custodian. I'd be VERY careful about who I choose for this job. I'm not sure if you can hold it yourself in a safe deposit box, but that would be my choice if it's available. (all of my metals are in a bank box)
Regarding how metals do in a recession, that's very hard to answer. Obviously during the 1980-81 recession, metals skyrocketed. High interest rates and high inflation always drive silver and gold up while low inflation and low interest rates keep it down. In any senario that involves the devaluation of the dollar, you want to be in hard currency. While I absolutely guarantee a recession/depression in the next 5 years, I'm still not sure what interest rates are going to do although I suspect that the massive debt load will drive them up.
If you want a higher risk, high reward investment try mining stocks. I have no experience in this area although Bill Gates is heavily invested in Pan American silver.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
<< <i>OK I'm convinced. But should I buy gold and silver now or will the price come down in a recession? How do I convert my IRA to gold and anyone here recommend a "custodian" who will actully have my gold in thier hand, seperate from others/
Any recommendations? Its about 35K >>
Dont buy the metal. You will have to open an IRA with a custodian who will charge you to hold the silver. If you believe gold/silver is the way to go then buy the mining stocks. Newmont is the largest and best and Barrick is second.
HIGH interest rates drive gold ....down. LOW interest rates drive it up.
The highest interest rates in US history (1980) is also when gold and silver reached their highest prices in history. Please explain how you determined that rising interest rates drive gold down?
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
I have to agree that hi rates drive gold down. People will sell gold and put thier money into hi yield accounts. Yes in 1980-2 the rates were hi and so was gold but the direction of gold was on the decline as a result of the hi rate. Inflation however was still strong and was in the process of decline. Both gold and inflation (and real estate) fell as a result of the rise in interest rates, the move was not immediate, it took time.
Now this is 2005 , not 1980. The US does not command 80% of the free market economy like it did then. Even if we have hi rates and low wages here that doesn't mean that gold will fall around the world. The dollar may continue to fall due to an over supply.
So , that is the difference, but is it a major one??
Also, stocks will fall with higher rates and so will bonds.
If inflation hits the value of the dollar........what is a safe place to be.....the Euro??
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
IBM to repatriate $9 bln in foreign earnings (84.15 -0.05)
-Update- The IBM board of directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per common share. The board also approved a plan to repatriate foreign earnings in accordance with the temporary repatriation incentive of the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004. The co said it intends to repatriate approx $9 bln under the plan and will record a tax charge and related tax liability of approx $450 mln in 3Q05 in connection with this repatriation
One thing is certain. If one is inside the bubble...it may be hard for that person to realize it.
The fed let the bottom fall out of rates after the 2000-1 tech bubble burst. That allowed some people to recoup their loses by investing in some commodities. Now that we are in a period of regularly advancing rates...the rational is that ..that will have a calming influence on commodity prices.
Anyone should be able to play the secular bear market in AU & AG...but IMHO it is just that ...a bear market.
Where are you gonna run to, Top? Switzerland? Afghanistan?
.....GOD
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
From MSN re: the energy bill that congress is going to receive for a vote
"The broad legislation includes measures to spur construction of new nuclear power plants, promote ways to reduce pollution from coal and provides a boon to farmers by requiring refiners to double the use of corn-based ethanol in gasoline to 7.5 billion gallons a year by 2012."
“Interesting article on the "boom" in San Diego. Rather than the brick and mortar type jobs that usually support real growth, it seems that the boom in San Diego (and possibly other cities) is not from new people flooding in, but rather a growth in the restaurant business (leisure and hospitality).”
RR, I guess everyone there better have a good time while they can ????
July 26 (Bloomberg) -- San Diego's $2 billion pension shortfall may decide the outcome of today's mayoral election, with one candidate saying bankruptcy is the best solution and two leading candidates saying they would consider it.
Durables Orders Very Strong: The economic statistics continue to impress. June durable goods new orders rose 1.4%. This followed a very strong 6.4% gain in May. There are plenty of aircraft orders to boost the numbers, but any way you cut it, orders are very strong. This reflects business confidence and augers very well for the economic outlook in the months ahead. Excluding transportation, new orders in June were up 2.6%. May was revised sharply higher to +0.9% from an original -0.3%. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft were up 3.8% after a 0.6% drop in May.
There is broad strength in the numbers and the data should be taken at face value. This is very bullish from an economic standpoint. Corporate profits are at record levels and further increases in business investment in the months ahead is highly likely.
The economy is going to appear to be strong until the Real Estate Bubble tops out. (this might have happened already) Then there will be a lag time of 6 months to a year while people spend the equity and fuel the economy. Afterwards the consumer will be out of spending capital again and that should be the end of this temporary boom cycle. The wildcard is interest rates and all those interest only adjustible rate loans that people signed up for. A strong rise in long term rates will cause a lot of forclosures and might start us down the slippery slope sooner.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
<< <i>The economy is going to appear to be strong until the Real Estate Bubble tops out. (this might have happened already) Then there will be a lag time of 6 months to a year while people spend the equity and fuel the economy. Afterwards the consumer will be out of spending capital again and that should be the end of this temporary boom cycle. The wildcard is interest rates and all those interest only adjustible rate loans that people signed up for. A strong rise in long term rates will cause a lot of forclosures and might start us down the slippery slope sooner. >>
and the stock market can barely hold a rally a week. What will happen when the rates go hi and the profits hit bottom.........Dow at 6000
It contains arguments from both sides. I personally get really disgusted when people say "everything is okay, we wont hit peak oil for another 20 years" because that basically writes off our current energy needs at the expense of our children. The real implications of peak oil far exceed a simple increase in gas prices. There are some very reputable scientists that say that without our oil subsidized food production, the earth cannot support our current population. If true, then in a post-peak oil future rich Americans who bid oil away from poor countries will literally be increasing the starvation rate.
Kinda makes you think.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
Durables Orders Very Strong: The economic statistics continue to impress. June durable goods new orders rose 1.4%. This followed a very strong 6.4% gain in May. There are plenty of aircraft orders to boost the numbers, but any way you cut it, orders are very strong. This reflects business confidence and augers very well for the economic outlook in the months ahead.
Of course it looks strong. But besides those booked air craft orders that will take months to deliver, how about all these "durable" auto sales at no profit to GM and the others? Many orders...no profit. Looks good on paper....for now. And don't forget other durable goods bought on credit as the last wind of the refi market plays out.
I got this email in from a stock trader friend yesterday, has anyone else heard this?
“The Feds have raised the minimum payment due with all credit companies from 2% to 4%. This will double all consumers credit card minimum bills. So, if your payment was $250.00 min, by January 2006 it will be $500.00 min.
Please take note that the new bankruptcy laws take effect about that same time. Most consumers will not be able to file for Chapter (whatever) any longer. Mmmmm, that is quite interesting. So, the way I see it, consumers will be squeezed next year, with Gas, inflation, credit card fees doubling, cant declare bankruptcy, how many will loose their house back to bank that could barely make their payments on these interest only loans?”
On that note, how will that affect consumer credit overall? Although numismatics is generally a big-ticket item traded by wealthy people, small-time collectors use credit cards...paypal, etc. Perhaps this development might have an impact on the coin market, especially on small-ticket items.
you can check out of coins anytime you like...but can you really leave?
Interesting article on how we will be powering cars in the future. For those Peak Oil fans who think that no one is worried about oil and the problem is being ignored.
your friend is right. it is a good measure as many people are just paying the minimum on their credit cards and take years to pay them off. i could understand this is troublesome if one has a large balance on their credit card or people who have trouble paying their credit cards but over all, it is a good idea as people will pay off their debt sooner.
i have worked with people who paid only the minimum. most people do not understand that paying the minimum on a major purchase is like paying twice as much as a cash purchase. strange but true, some believe that minimum payment is the amount to write the check out for. the increase will assist these people pay off their debt faster although i stand by the opinion one should pay off their credit cards as soon as they receive the bill in the mail.
worse case scenario instead of filing for "chapter whatever" ;] you may see people defaulting on their credit accounts. they will receive a 1099 and have to pay taxes on the default and the gov't gets theirs. .
From the "Fueling Cars" article...a common error...
"We all have to do something to save the planet," says Barbara Nanney"
Many people have the orientation that we have to save the earth, that we have to "help" mother nature, that we have to be responsible stewards so that we don't destroy the earth.
Well, here's the big news with a little something to think about...the earth doesn't care. The earth will do just fine regardless of what we do. In fact, all of the living creatures of the earth were destroyed at one time but you do not see any evidence of that now other than fossil record and, of course, petroleum deposits. If you ever notice an abandoned parking lot after a couple of years on it's own, you will notice that what was once an impermeable concrete lot now has little trees, lizards, birds and bugs, in 10 years...the parking lot is gone. The earth is quite adept at recovering itself regardless of our actions. In fact, the Amazonian basin shows little effect of the earth being "cleared" in our previous history, it is one of the most productive biological areas that we have. And, unless we crack the mantel with a nuke or somehow rip away the atmosphere with some of our technology causing the earth to become barren, then the earth will do just fine and remain as a host to many living things (including us). The earth is not dependent on humans, human stewardship, or anything that humans may or may not do. We can pollute the bejezus out of the water, the air, the soil and the earth doesn't care about us although it is quite capable of caring for us in a grand way. Either we work within the known laws of nature and physics or we will go the way of the dinosaur and that is not a warning or threat, it is what will happen as a simple matter of fact. It is not about saving mother nature...it is about saving our own buts. So, in that light, energy consumption, energy pollution, heat gain should become a little more than just a passing interest for us in the near future and our near term energy decisions will have a direct effect on our own success as a species. Just a thought...
Sorry for the diatribe but the opportunity presented itself.
By the way...very nice "peak oil" article and very nice "fueling cars" article, thanks for the excellent research.
The new bankruptcy bill will make it more difficult to file Chapter 7, and force many people into 5 year repayment plans. (Chapter 13) This is actually quite similar to indentured servitude (which was 7 years) although you wont be thrown into debtor's prison if you decide to stop working altogether. I own a law firm that prepares consumer bankruptcies and I can honestly say that this new law is one of the worst pieces of legislation in history. Most of this new law will take effect in October of this year, and if you're broke and MUST file PLEASE do it before then. You'll deeply regret it otherwise.
Well, here's the big news with a little something to think about...the earth doesn't care.
I agree the earth doesn't care. It might respond by exterminating our species and returning to business as usual. I think it's the people who will care. I really don't know what increasing carbon dioxide levels will do to the planet. Sadly, no one else does either so we're experimenting with the only home we have. Some people think global warming is a leftist scam. I really have no opinion either way because I don't think there is enough evidence, but I DO know that we're changing the atmosphere and that we have no historical record to determine what the effects will be. This isn't open to debate, check out the CO2 graph:
The funny thing is that we may run out of oil before we boost these numbers much higher. The nightmare is that we have enough coal to send that CO2 spike from your computer monitor to the ceiling.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
“it is a good measure as many people are just paying the minimum on their credit cards and take years to pay them off.”
most people do not understand that paying the minimum on a major purchase is like paying twice as much as a cash purchase.”
CSC
I would agree with all of the above except I might add that many folks paying the minimum with high balances are paying nearly all interest and some at 21%. What this would mean is that just in interest they pay for their purchases double every 5 MONTHS WOW.
What we need are some NEW USURY LAWS !
“Although numismatics is generally a big-ticket item traded by wealthy people, small-time collectors use credit cards...
...meanwhile, back in Rome...3 days before leaving for Budapest...”
OFFTHEHORSE
As a general rule it most collectors I know are very careful with their money, and realize the cost of their coins go through the roof if they pay large interest payments on the credit cards. That being said this is a good point and the industry could not survive without the small, and medium sized, collector.
Please continue to give us reports form overseas if you can. Are you going to any coin shops?
<< <i>I got this email in from a stock trader friend yesterday, has anyone else heard this?
“The Feds have raised the minimum payment due with all credit companies from 2% to 4%. This will double all consumers credit card minimum bills. So, if your payment was $250.00 min, by January 2006 it will be $500.00 min.
Wow, that's going to be real interesting to see what happens to most of the people who are up to their eyeballs in debt.
Budapest has some nice coin shops. However, I am pretty well spent, given my recent controversial purchase of a raw Saint Gaudens high relief (please see my thread). I also purchased the 2002 and 2003 20 and 50 euro gold Vatican proof coins.
Thanks, andrew (offthehorse)
you can check out of coins anytime you like...but can you really leave?
<< <i> I -É agree with all of the above except I might add that many folks paying the minimum with high balances are paying nearly all interest and some at 21%. What this would mean is that just in interest they pay for their purchases double every 5 MONTHS WOW. >>
absolutely- 21% is highway robbery. i advocate moving balances to lower % credit cards as well. sometimes you can negotiate the finance rate with the CC company, discover is the worst.
I have seen credit cards charge clients of mine as high at 31.99% on past due accounts or even higher. Especially when located in Delaware with no usury laws that I know of plus penalities which probably raise the raise as high as 100% or more. I even once had a small Discover Card that charged me 27.99% plus penalties a few years ago on a $200 balance that I thought I had paid off in full. Discover is one of the most deceitful credit cards in this planet. You should look at some of their 0% interest rate credit cards and the hoops you have to jump though to keep it.
The raising of the minimum from 2% to 4% is an excellent change for the future. However, customers should have been given a 2 year period to phase in these new rules such as raising fron 2 to 2.5% then 3% then 3.5% then 4%.
A sudden jump in minimums will cause the delinqency rate to skyrocket as consumers were not adequately advised.
Comments
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Ahhhh.....so THAT'S where you go to have your brain washed!!! I was wondering........
The Free-Market's solution to peak oil has been to encourage the burning of as much as possible in the shortest amount of time therefore ensuring that we'd be caught totally unprepared and suffer the consequences. I don't give a rat's ass if this statment applies to next week or 30 years from now, the free market WILL result in vast amounts of human misery if profit remains it's only motivation.
No matter how much you hate government, it's still the only way to force corporations to do the right thing. The free-market of the south shed blood over keeping slaves, and the free market of the industrial north shed blood over keeping child labor. That should be all the evidence you need, but Reagan did his job well thus we have websites like this one.
<< <i>Free Market News
Ahhhh.....so THAT'S where you go to have your brain washed!!! I was wondering........
The Free-Market's solution to peak oil has been to encourage the burning of as much as possible in the shortest amount of time therefore ensuring that we'd be caught totally unprepared and suffer the consequences. I don't give a rat's ass if this statment applies to next week or 30 years from now, the free market WILL result in vast amounts of human misery if profit remains it's only motivation.
No matter how much you hate government, it's still the only way to force corporations to do the right thing. The free-market of the south shed blood over keeping slaves, and the free market of the industrial north shed blood over keeping child labor. That should be all the evidence you need, but Reagan did his job well thus we have websites like this one. >>
Poor little man/woman/girl?/boy?, there you go again .
What was your name again?
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Another well thought out and well supported rebuttal by the right............
nor as bad a we might fear. Its easy to know what tomorrows
economy will be. You just have to wait a year or two for the answer.
Camelot
I made the point previously that the last 100 years or so of American life is an extreme anomaly that has no parallel in human history, with a few possible short exceptions during the British and Roman empires. I'm not suprised that most Americans have faith that we'll be okay and whatever problems we may face will be overcome with "good old American spirit".
Cheap oil has no solution. Neither does an economy dependent on gigantic increases in debt. We're headed for a period of human history that has no previous examples to guide us. We can't afford to assume everything will be okay, we have to plan for the worst possible future NOW even if we assume that all these problems will be solved.
'
DETROIT (AFP) - Weak sales, heavy costs and stiff competition from Asian competitors have taken a huge bite out of the US auto industry.
The Big Three have fought back with aggressive pricing campaigns that offer consumers employee discounts, but many analysts say incentives will not be enough.
And after General Motors Corp. announced its second quarter of major losses this week, while Ford Motor Co. managed to squeeze a profit despite 906 million dollars in losses in its North American automotive business, some analysts are predicting that recent job cuts are just the tip of the iceberg
"I don't think GM is going disappear. But in order for GM to become a healthier company, it has to become a smaller company," said Joe Barker, an analyst with CSM Worldwide in Farmington Hills, Michigan.
"Ford has the same problem. They have to become a smaller company," he said.
Both Ford and GM said last week that they are looking at closing more plants, while GM said it is also planning to purchase more material in Asia and Ford said it will be making additional cuts to its salaried workforce.
But current plans offered by GM management are not sufficient to help turn the company around, said professor Peter Morici of the University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business.
"GM makes cars and trucks that cannot sell for a profit, and that is not likely to change anytime soon," he said. "Without a radical change in strategy and leadership, losses will mount up, the company will run out of cash and bondholders and banks will be left holding the bag."
Morici's prediction for GM? "The road ahead: a trip through Chapter 11," referring to the US bankruptcy protection law.
John Casesa, the top auto analyst for Merrill Lynch, said the 1.2-billion-dollar quarterly loss at GM's North American operations sets the stage for more changes inside the company.
"The loss, remarkably large in the seasonally strong second quarter, comes as pressure is mounting for major change at the company," Casesa added in a research note.
"The results reflect both a revenue problem and a cost problem," Casesa added.
Problems at Ford and GM are putting pressure on DaimlerChrysler, which had been posting better results due to a strong lineup of vehicles and solid cost cuts, Fitch Ratings Service said.
"Pricing pressures and (competitors') capacity expansion will continue to limit margin expansion and could neutralize at least parts of the operational improvements achieved at the Chrysler Group," Fitch noted in its report on DaimlerChrysler.
The Big Three have a competitive disadvantage against their Asian competitors because of the "legacy costs" of pension and health care benefits owed to a large group of retirees. GM suffers the most because of the sheer size of the company, and the degree to which it has shrunk.
GM currently employs about 110,000 union members, compared with about 400,000 union members 20 years ago. The company is currently in discussions with the United Auto Workers (UAW) union to find ways to reduce health care costs, which are estimated to be 5.6 billion dollars in 2005.
On Friday, the UAW said it had put together a team of analysts to examine GM's finances in order to determine if concessions are necessary. However, the union has often said that cost savings can be found without reopening the current contract.
Regardless of the outcome of talks with the union, GM faces a long road back to profitability, said Brian Johnson, analyst for Sanford Bernstein.
"The market is looking ahead to next year and hoping for good news then," he said. "The fourth quarter may firm up some, but not enough to increase profitability much."
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Not alltogether unexpected information...from MSN Money today.
and creativity that are already in the works in some dusty lab
or being worked out in the mind of some unknown genious. Of course,
if things get really bad, we will have to go back to uncooked foods and
good old horse drawn trollys. Be lots of new jobs for pooper scoopers.
Camelot
Any recommendations? Its about 35K
Here's some information about putting metals into an IRA:
GOLD: At present, gold bars with a purity of 24 karat (0.995+ fineness) are allowed into an IRA. They must be hallmarked by a NYMEX- or COMEX-approved refiner/assayer. These bars come in the following sizes: 1 ounce, 10 ounces, kilo (32.15 ounces), 100 ounces, and 400 ounces. Gold coins having a purity of 24 karat (0.9999 fineness) are the only ones allowed in an IRA, with the exception of the 22 karat US Gold Eagle. Readily acceptible for gold IRAs are bullion coins from Australia, Austria and Canada. The South African Krugerrand is not allowed -- it is a 22 karat bullion coin.
IRA information
SILVER: Regarding silver investments, only silver coins and bars with 0.999+ fineness are allowed. These include the 1 oz. US Silver Eagle, Canadian Silver Maple Leaf, and the Mexican Silver Libertad bullion coins. Investors can purchase 100 oz. silver bars and also 1000 oz. silver bars. Pre-1965 bags of US silver coins (dimes, quarters, half dollars, and silver dollars) are not allowed in an IRA because their alloy contains only 90% silver and thus does not meet the fineness standard.
You'll also need a custodian. I'd be VERY careful about who I choose for this job. I'm not sure if you can hold it yourself in a safe deposit box, but that would be my choice if it's available. (all of my metals are in a bank box)
Regarding how metals do in a recession, that's very hard to answer. Obviously during the 1980-81 recession, metals skyrocketed. High interest rates and high inflation always drive silver and gold up while low inflation and low interest rates keep it down. In any senario that involves the devaluation of the dollar, you want to be in hard currency. While I absolutely guarantee a recession/depression in the next 5 years, I'm still not sure what interest rates are going to do although I suspect that the massive debt load will drive them up.
If you want a higher risk, high reward investment try mining stocks. I have no experience in this area although Bill Gates is heavily invested in Pan American silver.
<< <i>OK I'm convinced. But should I buy gold and silver now or will the price come down in a recession? How do I convert my IRA to gold and anyone here recommend a "custodian" who will actully have my gold in thier hand, seperate from others/
Any recommendations? Its about 35K >>
Dont buy the metal. You will have to open an IRA with a custodian who will charge you to hold the silver. If you believe gold/silver is the way to go then buy the mining stocks.
Newmont is the largest and best and Barrick is second.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The highest interest rates in US history (1980) is also when gold and silver reached their highest prices in history. Please explain how you determined that rising interest rates drive gold down?
Now this is 2005 , not 1980. The US does not command 80% of the free market economy like it did then. Even if we have hi rates and low wages here that doesn't mean that gold will fall around the world. The dollar may continue to fall due to an over supply.
So , that is the difference, but is it a major one??
Also, stocks will fall with higher rates and so will bonds.
If inflation hits the value of the dollar........what is a safe place to be.....the Euro??
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
IBM to repatriate $9 bln in foreign earnings (84.15 -0.05)
-Update- The IBM board of directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per common share. The board also approved a plan to repatriate foreign earnings in accordance with the temporary repatriation incentive of the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004. The co said it intends to repatriate approx $9 bln under the plan and will record a tax charge and related tax liability of approx $450 mln in 3Q05 in connection with this repatriation
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The fed let the bottom fall out of rates after the 2000-1 tech bubble burst. That allowed some people to recoup their loses by investing in some commodities. Now that we are in a period of regularly advancing rates...the rational is that ..that will have a calming influence on commodity prices.
Anyone should be able to play the secular bear market in AU & AG...but IMHO it is just that ...a bear market.
Time to run for yields.
Did you sell the house yet?
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
"The broad legislation includes measures to spur construction of new nuclear power plants, promote ways to reduce pollution from coal and provides a boon to farmers by requiring refiners to double the use of corn-based ethanol in gasoline to 7.5 billion gallons a year by 2012."
“Interesting article on the "boom" in San Diego. Rather than the brick and mortar type jobs that usually support real growth, it seems that the boom in San Diego (and possibly other cities) is not from new people flooding in, but rather a growth in the restaurant business (leisure and hospitality).”
RR,
I guess everyone there better have a good time while they can ????
July 26 (Bloomberg) -- San Diego's $2 billion pension shortfall may decide the outcome of today's mayoral election, with one candidate saying bankruptcy is the best solution and two leading candidates saying they would consider it.
Excluding transportation, new orders in June were up 2.6%. May was revised sharply higher to +0.9% from an original -0.3%. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft were up 3.8% after a 0.6% drop in May.
There is broad strength in the numbers and the data should be taken at face value. This is very bullish from an economic standpoint. Corporate profits are at record levels and further increases in business investment in the months ahead is highly likely.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The best time to sell is when everything looks the best. If you never remember anything else I say, please remember this. The flip side is also true.
The hard part is just knowing when it is the best.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Well, now. That will guarantee high gasoline prices through 2012... but we'll have to complain about Big Farmer instead of Big Oil.
Get your T-Shirts now!
<< <i>The economy is going to appear to be strong until the Real Estate Bubble tops out. (this might have happened already) Then there will be a lag time of 6 months to a year while people spend the equity and fuel the economy. Afterwards the consumer will be out of spending capital again and that should be the end of this temporary boom cycle. The wildcard is interest rates and all those interest only adjustible rate loans that people signed up for. A strong rise in long term rates will cause a lot of forclosures and might start us down the slippery slope sooner.
>>
and the stock market can barely hold a rally a week. What will happen when the rates go hi and the profits hit bottom.........Dow at 6000
It contains arguments from both sides. I personally get really disgusted when people say "everything is okay, we wont hit peak oil for another 20 years" because that basically writes off our current energy needs at the expense of our children. The real implications of peak oil far exceed a simple increase in gas prices. There are some very reputable scientists that say that without our oil subsidized food production, the earth cannot support our current population. If true, then in a post-peak oil future rich Americans who bid oil away from poor countries will literally be increasing the starvation rate.
Kinda makes you think.
Of course it looks strong. But besides those booked air craft orders that will take months to deliver, how about all these "durable" auto sales at no profit to GM and the others? Many orders...no profit.
Looks good on paper....for now. And don't forget other durable goods bought on credit as the last wind of the refi market plays out.
roadrunner
“The Feds have raised the minimum payment due
with all credit companies from 2% to 4%. This will double
all consumers credit card minimum bills. So, if your payment
was $250.00 min, by January 2006 it will be $500.00 min.
Please take note that the new bankruptcy laws take effect
about that same time. Most consumers will not be able
to file for Chapter (whatever) any longer.
Mmmmm, that is quite interesting.
So, the way I see it, consumers will be squeezed next year,
with Gas, inflation, credit card fees doubling, cant declare bankruptcy, how many will loose their house back to bank that could barely make their payments on these interest only loans?”
Fueling cars
your friend is right. it is a good measure as many people are just paying the minimum on their credit cards and take years to pay them off. i could understand this is troublesome if one has a large balance on their credit card or people who have trouble paying their credit cards but over all, it is a good idea as people will pay off their debt sooner.
i have worked with people who paid only the minimum. most people do not understand that paying the minimum on a major purchase is like paying twice as much as a cash purchase. strange but true, some believe that minimum payment is the amount to write the check out for. the increase will assist these people pay off their debt faster although i stand by the opinion one should pay off their credit cards as soon as they receive the bill in the mail.
worse case scenario instead of filing for "chapter whatever" ;] you may see people defaulting on their credit accounts. they will receive a 1099 and have to pay taxes on the default and the gov't gets theirs. .
"We all have to do something to save the planet," says Barbara Nanney"
Many people have the orientation that we have to save the earth, that we have to "help" mother nature, that we have to be responsible stewards so that we don't destroy the earth.
Well, here's the big news with a little something to think about...the earth doesn't care. The earth will do just fine regardless of what we do. In fact, all of the living creatures of the earth were destroyed at one time but you do not see any evidence of that now other than fossil record and, of course, petroleum deposits. If you ever notice an abandoned parking lot after a couple of years on it's own, you will notice that what was once an impermeable concrete lot now has little trees, lizards, birds and bugs, in 10 years...the parking lot is gone. The earth is quite adept at recovering itself regardless of our actions. In fact, the Amazonian basin shows little effect of the earth being "cleared" in our previous history, it is one of the most productive biological areas that we have. And, unless we crack the mantel with a nuke or somehow rip away the atmosphere with some of our technology causing the earth to become barren, then the earth will do just fine and remain as a host to many living things (including us). The earth is not dependent on humans, human stewardship, or anything that humans may or may not do. We can pollute the bejezus out of the water, the air, the soil and the earth doesn't care about us although it is quite capable of caring for us in a grand way. Either we work within the known laws of nature and physics or we will go the way of the dinosaur and that is not a warning or threat, it is what will happen as a simple matter of fact. It is not about saving mother nature...it is about saving our own buts. So, in that light, energy consumption, energy pollution, heat gain should become a little more than just a passing interest for us in the near future and our near term energy decisions will have a direct effect on our own success as a species. Just a thought...
Sorry for the diatribe but the opportunity presented itself.
By the way...very nice "peak oil" article and very nice "fueling cars" article, thanks for the excellent research.
Mike
Credit minimums being raised
Hmmm. Not a peep about working to earn more money?
The new bankruptcy bill will make it more difficult to file Chapter 7, and force many people into 5 year repayment plans. (Chapter 13) This is actually quite similar to indentured servitude (which was 7 years) although you wont be thrown into debtor's prison if you decide to stop working altogether. I own a law firm that prepares consumer bankruptcies and I can honestly say that this new law is one of the worst pieces of legislation in history. Most of this new law will take effect in October of this year, and if you're broke and MUST file PLEASE do it before then. You'll deeply regret it otherwise.
Well, here's the big news with a little something to think about...the earth doesn't care.
I agree the earth doesn't care. It might respond by exterminating our species and returning to business as usual. I think it's the people who will care. I really don't know what increasing carbon dioxide levels will do to the planet. Sadly, no one else does either so we're experimenting with the only home we have. Some people think global warming is a leftist scam. I really have no opinion either way because I don't think there is enough evidence, but I DO know that we're changing the atmosphere and that we have no historical record to determine what the effects will be. This isn't open to debate, check out the CO2 graph:
The funny thing is that we may run out of oil before we boost these numbers much higher. The nightmare is that we have enough coal to send that CO2 spike from your computer monitor to the ceiling.
Take a look at Gold...back up over $430 an oz and rising...
Your international roving financial reporter...
“it is a good measure as many people are just paying the minimum on their credit cards and take years to pay them off.”
most people do not understand that paying the minimum on a major purchase is like paying twice as much as a cash purchase.”
CSC
I would agree with all of the above except I might add that many folks paying the minimum with high balances are paying nearly all interest and some at 21%. What this would mean is that just in interest they pay for their purchases double every 5 MONTHS WOW.
What we need are some NEW USURY LAWS !
“Although numismatics is generally a big-ticket item traded by wealthy people, small-time collectors use credit cards...
...meanwhile, back in Rome...3 days before leaving for Budapest...”
OFFTHEHORSE
As a general rule it most collectors I know are very careful with their money, and realize the cost of their coins go through the roof if they pay large interest payments on the credit cards. That being said this is a good point and the industry could not survive without the small, and medium sized, collector.
Please continue to give us reports form overseas if you can. Are you going to any coin shops?
Terry
<< <i>I got this email in from a stock trader friend yesterday, has anyone else heard this?
“The Feds have raised the minimum payment due
with all credit companies from 2% to 4%. This will double
all consumers credit card minimum bills. So, if your payment
was $250.00 min, by January 2006 it will be $500.00 min.
Wow, that's going to be real interesting to see what happens to most of the people who are up to their eyeballs in debt.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Budapest has some nice coin shops. However, I am pretty well spent, given my recent controversial purchase of a raw Saint Gaudens high relief (please see my thread). I also purchased the 2002 and 2003 20 and 50 euro gold Vatican proof coins.
Thanks,
andrew (offthehorse)
<< <i> I -É agree with all of the above except I might add that many folks paying the minimum with high balances are paying nearly all interest and some at 21%. What this would mean is that just in interest they pay for their purchases double every 5 MONTHS WOW. >>
absolutely- 21% is highway robbery. i advocate moving balances to lower % credit cards as well. sometimes you can negotiate the finance rate with the CC company, discover is the worst.
The raising of the minimum from 2% to 4% is an excellent change for the future. However, customers should have been given a 2 year period to phase in these new rules such as raising fron 2 to 2.5% then 3% then 3.5% then 4%.
A sudden jump in minimums will cause the delinqency rate to skyrocket as consumers were not adequately advised.
Best to all!