and it has provided you with a lifestyle beyond anyone's imagination 100 years ago.iwog, you should not call me a twit.
I didn't call you a twit, Mrearlygold is the twit.
Anyway don't get too used to your lifestyle, it's almost over. Our entire economy is based on cheap oil which WILL end in the next 50 years if not in the next 5. Besides your premise is clearly false since all 1st world countries enjoy the same lifestyle as we do and most don't spend insane amounts on weapons to enjoy it. The benefits of our society are economic, NOT military based, and the USSR proved that throwing all your money away on weapons WILL eventually lead to ruin.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
<< <i>Over the years some of my biggest and best customers for better US Numismatics have been Asians.
An observation worth noting. These people (as a culture) weren't born yesterday.. >>
Baley, the Asians I know ( in Asia and the US) are all very successful business people who were not born into money. When they say they are going to do something, they do it. There's no half measures. They are also fully aware of how government systematically steals from people and precious metals, coins, gems, art, etc and other "portable" forms of wealth are in demand. I was somewhat involved in Hong Kong paper money about a year before the handover back to China and let me tell ya, everything along those lines went crazy.
I bought an ancient budhist buriel gold piece from the Han dynasty from a dealer friend in NY as a case in point for about 10K ( no they don't slab these boys and girls), and flipped it to a fellow from HK for 12K. It's easily worth 6 figures. Remember the Korean pieces at ANR's Eliasberg Sale?
I could tell you stories about life in Asia but it would really be off topic and it takes me too long to type. One of these days maybe we'll have voice accuated machines. That would be cool
Besides your premise is clearly false since all 1st world countries enjoy the same lifestyle as we do and most don't spend insane amounts on weapons to enjoy it.
Instead they tax you out the wazzoo. Germany and England both enjoy tax rates greater than 50%. The Scandinavian countries approach 90%.
Doesn't bother me a bit. The top tax rates should be increased back to post-world war II levels. Taxes for the lower classes should be cut, and the absolutely disgusting estate tax repeal should be reversed.
I'm not alone. Bill Gates and Warren Buffett advocate EXACTLY THE SAME THING!
Anyway the argument concerned military spending and if that was really the cause of prosperity. I simply pointed to other 1st world countries to disprove the assertion. It had nothing to do with taxes.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
<< <i>Anyway don't get too used to your lifestyle, it's almost over. >>
I remember a guy named Malthus a century and a half ago who said we were all going to starve to death. That didn't happen either.
<< <i>Our entire economy is based on cheap oil which WILL end in the next 50 years if not in the next 5. >>
No big deal, by then perhaps our politicians will have gotten a clue and we'll just use nuclear power and hydrogen cars.
I'd rather spend the money on the military than on welfare, SSI disability, etc. This is no joke--fully 40% of the customers who call in to get gas turned on, when asked who their employer is, say "I'm disabled." Is 40% of the state of Arkansas really disabled and unable to work? Or are people exploiting and manipulating the system, sitting at home on their lazy butts rather than going out and getting a job? We have two solutions to this problem: eliminate or dramatically reform social welfare programs, or enlarge the government by creating a beauracracy to oversee them. The latter is no solution at all.
Folks, we are going the way of the Romans. From 300-200 BC, the Roman Republic was solid and stable, relying on common sense rather than intense legalism to maintain its political stability. Look at the Americans With Disabilities Act. Imagine if the salient points had all been consolidated into a 30 page piece of legislation, rather than one than runs into the thousands of pages (after all, you have to write thousands of pages to fill all the loopholes that a reliance on common sense, rather than legalism, would have filled for you). Unfortunately for the Romans, well-intentioned individuals started exploiting loopholes for small things, eventually leading to people exploiting loopholes for big things, and the Republic collapsed. Our overly legalistic society creates bigger and bigger government. Eventually something will break. The size of the government is my concern--not the size of the military. Isn't there a problem when senators and congressmen don't have time to read the legislation they are voting on (or even sponsoring!) since each bill is dozens, if not hundreds, of pages long? They rely on aides to summarize the legislation, and make a voting decision based on summaries. Who then holds the power, the senators/congressmen, or the aides?
But I digress...
I heard they were making a French version of Medal of Honor. I wonder how many hotkeys it'll have for "surrender."
I remember a guy named Malthus a century and a half ago who said we were all going to starve to death. That didn't happen either.
Malthus probably didn't envision a way to make fertilizer out of fossil fuels and had no way of knowing that engines running on oil would power farm equipment greatly enhancing the capacity of food production. His prediction wasn't wrong anyway, it was simply early. There is no one on earth that thinks we can feed the current population without fossil fuels OR a suitable substitute. Predicting a substitute energy source to save the world in the future must be taken entirely on faith since such a substitute does not currently exist.
But I digress. The end of cheap oil WILL happen within a lifetime. Some people think it will happen in the next year.
I'd rather spend the money on the military than on welfare, SSI disability, etc.
The amount of money spent on welfare programs is trivial compared to the military budget. I just find it facinating that the people advocating war are the same ones advocating tax cuts.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
Interesting post on the boxes. I also think it is interesting about the comment of a cash system. More Americans need to do trading in cash when they can. I have not been to a coin show in some time, but I assume gold, silver, and many coins can be bought and sold for cash money. There is a lot to be learned from the Asians. Like many of the folks in Europe they have been screwed so many times by their governments they have already been to school on fiat paper money. My personal feeling is that the general population in the U.S. has no experience in this area and many are going to have some hard lessons to learn.
Tom, the reason I think that certified coins are the way to go, even in bullion high grade coins, is that if and when there are big jumps in gold, for instance, the counterfeiters will be out in force. I may have mentioned that I contacted a friend in Shanghai not long ago looking for Chinese coins. His advice was that he would stay totally out of that market as well over 50% of the coins for sale there were counterfeit.
One area that may do very well in the next few years are modern certified gold pieces. Many countries now produce various size gold coins that even certified sell for a small percentage over their bullion value. Having the coins certified also leaves you a claim to the coin being a collectable if there was ever a gold recall.
Tom, the reason I think that certified coins are the way to go, even in bullion high grade coins, is that if and when there are big jumps in gold, for instance, the counterfeiters will be out in force. I may have mentioned that I contacted a friend in Shanghai not long ago looking for Chinese coins. His advice was that he would stay totally out of that market as well over 50% of the coins for sale there were counterfeit.
Having the coins certified also leaves you a claim to the coin being a collectable if there was ever a gold recall. >>
Goldsaint, oh I agree with you onthe cerified part. I was only illustrating one piece in particular that can't be "slabbed".
I don't see how certifying any coins would prevent the government from seizing them. The lowlifes in government are by and large lawyers and as they've "interpreted" the Constitution in a way which has subverted if not the letter certainly the spirit of that grand document rendering it virtually meaningless at this point, they can certainly twist a couple words here, tweak one or two there and take anything they want. Only they have bigger fish to fry as we've recently seen with the new twist on property "rights".
Doesn't bother me a bit. The top tax rates should be increased back to post-world war II levels. Taxes for the lower classes should be cut, and the absolutely disgusting estate tax repeal should be reversed.
Well thats fine for you, but not me. If I bust my a$$ and work harder than my neighbor and make more money then I damm well better able to enjoy a greater lifestyle. Why should I be burdened by higher taxes because I gave up 4-8 years of my life to get an education that leads to a higher paying job? If my father works his a$$ off to build a nestegg for future generations then why should the government get a big chuck of it. They already taxed his income. There should be no estate taxes.
If Gates and Buffett want to give their money away then I say go ahead. They have enjoyed a fantastic lifestyle and will still be richer than 99% of the people if they give away 99% of their money. I'll be dammed if I will and they have no right imposing their will upon me.
<< <i>Can anyone summarize this thread in 25 words or less ?? >>
Lets see:
1. The sky is falling. 2. We are all doomed....doomed I say. 3. It is the end of the world as we know it. 4. Pack up the wife and kids and head for the hills. 5. The United States is a third world country. 6. Rarely does anyone want to stick to the original topic of this thread.
"Can anyone summarize this thread in 25 words or less"
25 words or less:
Discussion on metals, markets, and international economic predictions. Posters are urged to come into the thread with facts as opposed to hearsay or political opinions.
(Word count=25)
"Rarely does anyone want to stick to the original topic of this thread"
BEIJING - Chinese oil company CNOOC Ltd. is considering raising its $18.5 billion bid for Unocal Corp., according to a published report Wednesday.
The state-controlled company's board also was expected to consider making other changes to its bid, the Financial Times said, citing unidentified sources. It didn't say what the higher offer might be.
Spokesmen for Hong Kong-based CNOOC didn't immediately return telephone calls seeking comment.
A higher bid would reflect the state-controlled Chinese firm's determination to woo Unocal shareholders away from a competing bid of $16.6 billion by Chevron Corp.
"The board is unified. The board is interested in winning. Everyone is on the same page," the Financial Times quoted an unidentified person close to the Chinese offer as saying.
Unocal's 10-member board was expected to gather Wednesday to consider whether to recommend shareholders accept the CNOOC offer, revoking its earlier support for Chevron.
CNOOC and Unocal executives have been in talks on what changes to the Chinese bid might lead to it being declared superior to Chevron's by Unocal directors, according to the FT.
The Chinese firm says its all-cash offer is better than Chevron's promise of a mix of cash and stock because it would pay shareholders more and wouldn't result in as many job losses.
The CNOOC offer has prompted opposition from U.S. critics who say letting a Chinese state-controlled firm take over Unocal, the nation's ninth-largest oil company based in El Segundo, Calif., could endanger national security.
CNOOC has promised to cooperate with a U.S. government security review and says it would consider selling some assets in the United States and placing others under American control if necessary
Well thats fine for you, but not me. If I bust my a$$ and work harder than my neighbor and make more money then I damm well better able to enjoy a greater lifestyle. Why should I be burdened by higher taxes because I gave up 4-8 years of my life to get an education that leads to a higher paying job? If my father works his a$$ off to build a nestegg for future generations then why should the government get a big chuck of it. They already taxed his income. There should be no estate taxes.
Several points here. First of all you should be able to make more money than your neighbor and enjoy a greater lifestyle. You should be able to utilize the labor of other people to enrich yourself. That is the capitalist system that works.
Therefore the argument is what type of economic system is sustainable and will allow you this freedom. Giving the government less money in taxes than it spends IS NOT SUSTAINABLE. It will lead to a run-away debt, devaluation of the dollar, and a depression. Therefore YOU MUST agree on a tax policy that pays the government's bills.
So who do you want to pay the bills? You suck all the money out of the consumer class and you KILL the economy. This is what happened in the 1920's and is probably responsible for the string of depressions we had during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. You cannot overtax the class that does all the consuming. Bill Gates can only drive one car at a time. Warren Buffett can only fly one airplane at a time. This is why my point about the economy being a zero sum game is so important. You CANNOT make a million dollars without taking it from someone else. The more money you give to the upper class, the fewer consumers you have and the more factories you close. Economics 101.
So who do you tax the money from?? #1 on the list is dead people. Incredibly, you're making the argument that it's unfair to tax a DEAD PERSON twice. The argument you're REALLY making is that the heirs of a fortune are entitled to all the money simply because they were lucky enough to be born into a rich family. They didn't work for it, but they get it anyway? This is aristocracy and it leads to corruption, poverty, and often war. Just ask the French.
So who is left to tax? The elite upper classes that have gained their wealth by exploiting the labor of other people. As I said previously, you do not need 50 billion dollars to enjoy the most elite lifestyle. 50-100 million would work just fine. We should RESTORE our tax policy to post World War II levels because it worked well, was sustainable, and gave workers a minimum standard of living that enabled them to consume and grow the economy. This is NOT socialism/communism. In fact, it was the tax policy in effect during the McCarthy communist witch hunts and nobody questioned it.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
Giving the government less money in taxes than it spends IS NOT SUSTAINABLE
I agree with you 100%. But rather than try to get more money from people why not cut spending?
If you are having a rough financial year you cut back spending. If a company is having a rough go, it cuts back spending. The government is the only entity that increases its spending when the going gets rough. You better believe this is unsustainable.
Raising taxes only encourages more spending. This can only go on for so long. However a cut in spending would hurt the economy in the short term, it would lead to longer term growth and prosperity. The American consumer is still 2/3 of the economy vs 1/3 government. Keep the money in the hands of the people. They will spend it much more wisely than the govt. If you tax it all away from them then who is going to pick up the slack?
What this county needs is a good 'ole Boston tea party. Nobody pays their taxes for a year. Maybe that would get some heads rolling in Washington.
Now here is some economic news---The May trade deficit was $55.3 billion. That was slightly less than the expected $57.0 billion, and down slightly from $56.9 billion in April. This is positive in that it provides a bit more support to GDP calculations. Also of good news this morning was the report that import prices excluding oil were down 0.4% in June.
“Discussion on metals, markets, and international economic predictions. Posters are urged to come into the thread with facts as opposed to hearsay or political opinions.”
Thanks MH
I am sure that it is hard for all of us to control our urge to place the blame on many of the things that are now changing America, it certainly is for me, but lets try, please.
We live in interesting, volatile, and perhaps exciting financial times. There are currently more economic changes in one year in the World as there were in a decade a century before. Not only that, but for the first time in history the common man can get on the net and find the real truth of what is happening in high finance, government manipulations, and just wheeling and dealing.
I for one have changed nearly all my financial habits the last couple of years. After tax cash money is very hard to come by, and I really want to do my homework, and look at every side of all my purchases before I invest. I collect coins as a part of my over all investment strategy. I did not start that way 40 years ago, but the investment potential is now a big part of what I buy and how much I will pay.
In the coin area there are still many bargains out there if you have some education on world finance. This is important because doing a little research on who may be your buyer, even in several years, is very important.
Obviously much of the U.S. rare coin market is VERY offer valued. The auctions are going nuts and folks with money to burn are pouring money into many of these high-end coins. Unfortunately many of these folks will get burned. The reason is simple, every product has a pyramid equation attached to it. The cheaper any product is the more folks at the bottom of the pyramid the higher priced the less buyers.
Here is an excellent example in 1997 a fellow bought the Burke 1817/4 Bust half dollar, one of only seven known in all grades. This coin has been on the market for at least one year. It is for sale once again with a reserve estimate among most collectors of $150,000. Of the 10,000 Bust collectors in the U.S. everyone would love to own this coin but how many are at the top of the pyramid who can write the check? The coin goes to auction on July 27th.
Perhaps a more important question would be, if the buyer wanted $200,000 in a few years who will step to the plate?
“BEIJING - Chinese oil company CNOOC Ltd. is considering raising its $18.5 billion bid for Unocal Corp.,”
Hey Tom This is very interesting. The Chinese bid is already far and away better than the Chevron bid. It looks to me like the Chinese want to make this a test case. Obviously they want to start spending their U.S. paper. I think they want to make a clear case to the world if the bid is rejected either by the board or the congress. This is a very dangerous game. If the sale goes through it will be a signal to all holders of U.S. paper that America is for sale. The trillion dollars in U.S. debt out there, just to the Asians, is enough to buy nearly every major U.S. commodity and industrial company e own.
As I have said, I think this transaction is the most important financial item on the planet at this time.
If the Asian stop buying the debt were screwed, if we let them buy all or our companies were screwed.
How about this, lets tell them NO SALE, pass a 30% tariff on all foreign goods produced here, cut the government by 50% and cancel all entitlement programs but the safety nets for the VERY VERY POOR.
“ Now here is some economic news---The May trade deficit was $55.3 billion. That was slightly less than the expected $57.0 billion, and down slightly from $56.9 billion in April. This is positive in that it provides a bit more support to GDP calculations.”
Cohodk
Someone here is a real optimist if they think this is a POSITIVE. Lets forget the lose change and say that every month only hits $55 billion that’s still 660 BILLION DOLLARS GONE into the hands of the foreign devils. How many Unocal’s can you buy for 660 billion dollars?
I think you'll find that cutting spending in the current political climate is a pipe dream. Lets break down the budget:
Military spending: 400 billion + 100 billion special war funding. (estimate)
The current administration has people scared to death because of 20 men armed with box cutters. Any attempt to decrease the INSANE level of military spending will be viciously attacked by right wing wackos who think that a 20% reduction in spending would "gut" the military. In fact, one of the wackos has said as much in this very thread.
Interest on the national debt: 400 billion
Cutting this budget item would mean devaluation and ruin for our currency. It's gonna happen, but not by choice.
Health and Human services: 600 billion
Welfare!!!! Cut cut cut cut............. I'm sure the lies of the right have many people convinced that this is where you balance the budget. Nearly 500 billion of this budget is MEDICARE and MEDICADE, programs that have been greatly expanded under Bush and are currently a do-not-touch issue with both political parties.
So we have revenues of around 2 trillion dollars, and our current government cannot/wont touch 1.5 trillion in spending. What's the remaining 900 billion or so? Farm subsidies, corporate welfare, payments to foreign governments, pensions, insurance, NASA, etc. You want to see how hopeless the problem is??? The entire NASA budget for 2005 is 16 billion dollars. Our current deficit might be 500 billion a year. Totally eliminating NASA wouldn't even pay the interest on the deficit (not the debt) for a single year!!
I guess my point is that people think tax cuts grow on trees. When the top tax rate was 90%, people said it was too high. When it was 60% under Carter people said it was too high. When it was 39% under Clinton people said it was too high. This nonsense will only end with the next great depression and the realization that wealth disparity is financial suicide. Tax policy is the only way to fix this long term, and these protections are slowly going to hell.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
<< <i>Can anyone summarize this thread in 25 words or less ?? >>
Lets see:
1. The sky is falling. 2. We are all doomed....doomed I say. 3. It is the end of the world as we know it. 4. Pack up the wife and kids and head for the hills. 5. The United States is a third world country. 6. Rarely does anyone want to stick to the original topic of this thread.
Take your pick. >>
This looks pretty close. I nearly posted this morning that:
The sky is falling. No, it's not. The sky is falling. No it's not. The sky is falling. No, it's not. The sky is falling.
<< Malthus probably didn't envision a way to make fertilizer out of fossil fuels and had no way of knowing that engines running on oil would power farm equipment greatly enhancing the capacity of food production. His prediction wasn't wrong anyway, it was simply early. There is no one on earth that thinks we can feed the current population without fossil fuels OR a suitable substitute. Predicting a substitute energy source to save the world in the future must be taken entirely on faith since such a substitute does not currently exist. >>
And you can see the future far more clearly than Malthus could, I suppose? Nuclear power doesn't exist? Dang, that must've been some hangover! I could have sworn it did!
<< So who do you tax the money from?? #1 on the list is dead people. Incredibly, you're making the argument that it's unfair to tax a DEAD PERSON twice. The argument you're REALLY making is that the heirs of a fortune are entitled to all the money simply because they were lucky enough to be born into a rich family. They didn't work for it, but they get it anyway? This is aristocracy and it leads to corruption, poverty, and often war. Just ask the French. >>
I'll assume that your will leaves all your money to the government. After all, when you're dead it's fair we take everything. I guess you won't be leaving a cent to your children, since they didn't work for it and therefore shouldn't get ANY of it.
"They didn't work for it, but they get it anyway"--Sounds very similar to our welfare system.
I heard they were making a French version of Medal of Honor. I wonder how many hotkeys it'll have for "surrender."
I just cut and paste from a leading market website. The stock market will interpret this as a positive in that it was less than expected.
Kind of like saying Hurricane Dennis had 120 MPH winds instead of 140 MPH.
The stock market is a leading indicator of about 9-12 months. Today the SP-500 is near 4 yr highs. It is obvious that wall street is not concerned about the trade deficit. And there is not a more skittish bunch than the boys in Manhattan.
We are in for some major problems all of which will lead to inflation. How much and how fast is anyones guess. Just don't expect the whole system to collapse in the next six months, the guys in Washington have plenty of tricks to try to keep the game going. Furthermore, with half the world malnourished we can't expect anyone to cry for us when our retirees will get fewer cruises out of thier SS checks.
Live here is still dam good, just be sure you plan well for some rougher roads.
I just returned from Europe. All small cars, we waste so much gas here with F150s, Suburbans and Tahoes that carry one to person 50 miles to work. We are spoiled and we will some day pay. I'd like to see gas at 6 bucks a gallon and a nuclear reactor in every city. Time to get off our oil addiction.
<< <i> The stock market is a leading indicator of about 9-12 months. Today the SP-500 is near 4 yr highs. It is obvious that wall street is not concerned about the trade deficit. And there is not a more skittish bunch than the boys in Manhattan. >>
To me this isn't the end of the world but how should you protect yourself. Many lost half their wealth in 2000 in the stock market and the leading indicators didn't do much then when the automated buy/sell programs failed and the brokers couldn't convince the masses they were wrong. The end of the world....No. A major depression like the 30's is very possible. And like those smart rich investors then and the “all knowing” they’ll be jumping from buildings because they trusted the distorted government propaganda stats that is given out by whoever is in power. This has always been a trust/sales job and when that doesn't work watch out!
Here are a few examples:
1. The “illegals” are only taking jobs citizens don’t want.
My view is look around people! Have you noticed construction and roadwork is all Mexican? That’s not picking crops. Sorry to anyone here that’s Mexican here legally, this isn’t addressed toward you but any illegal. My ancestry originates from Italy in the late 1890’s and I have no ill felling toward immigrants.
2. The unemployment rate is 5% and the economy is roaring.
Again, if you go unemployed for too long your dropped off the list, so it should get better. This is a government distortion and the way these stats are designed. I’m a Republican and I like Bush but this is Washington’s propaganda and not just a party issue IMO. Whoever is in power the other side will point out this fact.
3. Jobs are growing and the economy is GREAT!
Again what are these jobs and are they high paying? IMO the high paying jobs are going to third world countries and being replaced by $8 to $12 an hour jobs. If I get laid off of my $40 hour job it will show up until I get laid off at my $20 an hour job and then the stats are distorted again. Americans aren’t doing better than the early 80’s to mid 90’s but the stats are rigged to suggest this. I have friends that have been laid off from high paying jobs to accept less and still get laid of 2 or 3 times in the last 8 years only to do worse every time in benefits and pay.
Argue if you will but stats are selected to show a point and dropped if they can’t defend them any longer. The stock market was dead for decades just like the coin market but if you pick the right years to present your claim or wait until a peak or near peak its looks so rosy. If you were caught up in the stock market in the 30’s or 40’s you were screwed or I’d hope you had several decades before retirement.
Here's a chart of the S&P. This is a 5 year chart, have we recoved? Looks like were still over 20% down from the peak if you expand it from 4 years to 5 years.
What concerns me most perhaps is the widespread belief that production will look like a bell curve. This is most unlikely. Bell curves describe the incidence of traits or individuals not the consumption of a commodity. As demand con- tinues to increase much of the increase is for plastics and other products that the world needs even more than cheap energy. This coupled with the fact that increasing numbers of wells will be sucked dry to meet higher prices means that the backside of this "curve" will be far steeper than the front. When oil peeks, it will be a very short time (less than a generation) before there is no oil available for energy.
Apocalypse now: how mankind is sleepwalking to the end of the Earth
Iwog....How do you find these websites?
I just returned from Europe. All small cars, we waste so much gas here with F150s, Suburbans and Tahoes that carry one to person 50 miles to work. We are spoiled and we will some day pay. I'd like to see gas at 6 bucks a gallon and a nuclear reactor in every city. Time to get off our oil addiction
Agreed 100%.....but it will take a long time. My lawyer just returned from Turkey where gas cost the equivilant of $10 per gallon. He said the economy seemed to be moving along quite well. Lots of cars on the road...albeit smaller. If the Turks can manage with energy costs that high then I imagine we can here as well.
I've read several books on the subject recently and even the most optimistic senarios become nightmares in only a generation or two. Even if production does follow a rough bell curve, it will SEEM like supply is falling off a cliff because demand will keep rising as the supply falls. Unlike other commodities, you cannot simply take oil away from the planet without killing millions. It's absolutely essential for food production and transportation and the planet cannot maintain 6.5 billion individuals without it. I've written several times about how the current economy defies explanation; even to someone as involved as Alan Greenspan. Perhaps the reason for this is that the economic reality of a limited energy supply has never been faced before in the history of civilization.
Most people who write on doomsday topics are crackpots. The Internet is filled with stories of alien plots, Jewish conspiracies, religious fundamentalist Armageddon predictions, Y2K, nuclear holocaust, global warming, etc. etc. etc. Americans have been numbed and dumbed to the point of automatically dismissing anyone who predicts a catastrophic change to their current way of life. Anyone predicting a disaster is labeled a chicken little.
That's why we're going to get blind-sided in the worst way. Peak oil is a FACT that cannot be argued, only the implications and timing is subject to debate. It will happen sometime between tomorrow and the next 30 years. (there's at least one industry expert that says November 2005) The country that suffers the most lifestyle change will be the country that uses the most. (look in the mirror) Anyone planning to live longer than 10 years or who intends to leave children or grandchildren on the planet after they die MUST plan for it or suffer greatly.
On a personal level I've modified my thinking greatly. I'm no longer a strong silver bull. I still think that we'll need a medium of exhange after the currency goes to hell, and the fundamentals in favor of silver skyrocketing are still present, but in an energy starved planet I can't see much demand for consumer electronics and photography. People are going to need that money to simply get to work. I'm putting more investments in alternative energy and following Warren Buffett's lead. Buy nuclear/hydro-electric rich utility companies.
Of course some people will not understand or believe the crisis until their local gas station closes for lack of supply. Here's some very recent news on the subject. Mainstream media is starting to get the hint that something is wrong.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
I've worked for Amoco for 22 years and BP for a time and I have to say peak oil is here! Sugar coat it all you want but when I worked at the Amoco Tulsa Research Center we found oil. The companies now buy companies to replace their reserves. No one is exploring for oil like the 80's or early 90's. As I've said before BP is the only oil company to replace their reserves and they are doing this by selling off the North Sea and the Gulf and Mexico to find/ oil in unstable parts of the world. Investing in some of these goverments are fine until you find the mother load and they nationalize their oil like Iran and other countries have done in the past.
The price of gold is reflected in energy prices, it takes a lot of earth moving to find a little gold or silver.
You are so right cladking, I know it from the resource management side and the curve in the studies for timber recovery, fishing stocks, oxygen depleation in streams, all the same. Bell on front and a cliff on the back as demand increases as the resource is depleated. The disappearance of oil will not be a slow, gradual bell, it will be over in rather short order. Just as you say, if there is no change in consumption or production the commodity will become scarce.
On the bright side, there is considerable interest in alternative fuels (hydrogen, corn oil, fuel cells, hydrogen, etc) but more importantly, people are making cars that can actually use them such as the Pirus and other hybrids that are on the market right now. The demand for hybrids is huge as evidenced by the backorder lists for these new generation vehicles. They are becoming mainstream as are alternative fuels. Whole public agencies are going hydrogen and fuel cells are already on line, there is indeed plenty of reason for optimism. We can tell the OPEC to pound sand...how poetic. Hopefully; oil will be like coal, gone the way of the dinosaur and only used by poor, backward countries. We will be using CNG/LNG for plastics and medicines and alt. fuels for our industry and vehicles and hopefully, the demand for liquid oil by modern societies will drop to a trickle.
How many of you are worried about the Russian and China alliance? We may have won the battle but lose the war IMO. Russia has oil and natural resources that China needs and China has the manufacturing and manpower Russia needs. To top that off China is now in an alliance with India for the trained technology personal they need. Can these alliances hold? Only time will tell but don’t be a fool, China and Russia are buying there time and aren’t our friends. Your thoughts?
BTW: No well is just pumped 24 X 7 it's managed. They pump for several hours and let the well rest until the oil from the field can flow back to he pump. A field has a big decline, unlike he bell curve of our schools where they fix it to come out that way.
Hydrogen can't save us. It's not an energy source, it's an energy carrier. To convert to a hydrogen economy we need a gigantic increase in the production of nuclear power plants immediately, but no one is listening. Not a single new nuclear power plant has been ordered in decades.
Hybrid vehicles can't fix the problem either. My wife's normal engine Honda Civic gets about 30-35 MPG as do most small cars in America today. The Prius gets 50 MPG. Although nice, it isn't a massive improvement and not a big factor in industry or the economy. Plastic, fertilizer, delivery systems, air travel, cooking, heating, and power generation have very little wiggle room when it comes to fossil fuel consumption.
Agreed 100%.....but it will take a long time. My lawyer just returned from Turkey where gas cost the equivilant of $10 per gallon. He said the economy seemed to be moving along quite well. Lots of cars on the road...albeit smaller. If the Turks can manage with energy costs that high then I imagine we can here as well.
The Turks can do this because oil production currently meets demand. Peak oil is about lack of supply at ANY price. When we hit the peak, the United States will be rich enough to bid $5 a gallon for gasoline thus taking it away from another country. This process will continue until the oil is removed from the poorest country who is probably using it for subsistance farming and famine will begin. A new equalibrium will be reached but only until the supply of oil drops AGAIN. Then the next poorest country on the list will have the oil turned off and THEY will starve. The next few decades isn't going to be pretty.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
<< <i>Hopefully; oil will be like coal, gone the way of the dinosaur and only used by poor, backward countries. >>
Most likely oil will be like coal. We will not run out of it, it will just become too expensive to produce forcing us to find alternative energy sources. These are out there but until oil becomes expensive enough to force the world to harness this potential we will continue using it as our main source of energy. Of course there will be a time of adjustment which will be difficult but the end of the world is not near. Alternative energy stocks are already doing well and as more money is poured into r&d the more efficient we will become with producing and using a form of energy besides oil.
The economic adjustment required will be a huge drop in GDP and depression. Even the best senarios cannot eliminate the huge jump in cost of doing business.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
Iwog, please read the following: Hydrogen is the third most abundant element on the earth's surface, where it is found primarily in water (H²O) and organic compounds. It is generally produced from hydrocarbons or water; and when burned as a fuel, or converted to electricity, it joins with oxygen to again form water.
<< <i> The economic adjustment required will be a huge drop in GDP and depression. Even the best senarios cannot eliminate the huge jump in cost of doing business. >>
Was there a huge depression when the world switched from coal to oil as the primary energy source? We're not going to run out of oil tomorrow so hopefully the change over will be gradual. Necessity creates invention here is an example oil from waste
The plant in Carthage is using a technology called thermal depolymerization, which applies pressure and heat to the waste. The byproduct of the process is water clean enough to discharge into a treatment plant and minerals that can be used to make fertilizer and other products. The Carthage plant reportedly is designed to produce 400 to 500 barrels of oil per day from 200 tons of waste from a variety of sources. Officials from the plant estimate the oil produced to have a cost of $15 per barrel, half of the current world market price for crude oil.
Iwog, please read the following: Hydrogen is the third most abundant element on the earth's surface, where it is found primarily in water (H²O) and organic compounds. It is generally produced from hydrocarbons or water; and when burned as a fuel, or converted to electricity, it joins with oxygen to again form water.
Yes I know the chemistry of hydrogen, what's your point? Hydrogen cannot be an energy source, it can only be an energy carrier. There is no free hydrogen on planet earth and ALL non-fossil fuel sources of hydrogen cost more energy to produce then you get back.
"...reality has a well-known liberal bias." -- Stephen Colbert
Not to argue the point but in the era of converting coal to oil happened when this country was young and we didn’t really relay on energy as a whole. We were a farming country using horses to plows and little industrialization. Think of China or India, which is about to go though the same process that will drive up prices. It will hurt them but they can adapt since they haven’t made the transformation as a country yet.
Rewind to the 1880’s before all the technology along with cars and a population explosion and you can see the issue. Nuclear energy will make a come back no doubt but we need to do it NOW! These plants take a decade before they go online and we haven’t even started. We’ll survive IMO but it will be with a number of solutions at a high cost.
If a 1930’s style depression hits today were not equipped to handle it. All the skills and the agricultural society is long gone here, most don’t know or couldn’t live off the land like we could then. Those city folks thinking that Middle America are fools would find it very hard when they didn’t have food, energy, or national protection delivered to them by us. In this case….the stupid “Country Boy” will survive.
My family lives in Joplin and Monett and I haven't heard of the process your reporting but here in Tulsa the Trash to Energy was a huge flop. You seperated your garabage and paid more for them to pick it up to covert it to energy, they couldn't make it with a front end load. Nice link.
<< <i>Iwog, please read the following: Hydrogen is the third most abundant element on the earth's surface, where it is found primarily in water (H²O) and organic compounds. It is generally produced from hydrocarbons or water; and when burned as a fuel, or converted to electricity, it joins with oxygen to again form water. >>
So far as I know nearly all means of separating oxygen from hydrogen requires a tremendous amount of energy. Indeed, more energy is required than is released for useful work because of mechanical inefficiencies. This means even more pollution is produced than using electricity directly except where it's transported great distances.
We do have abundant coal and the means to quickly build the plants to produce hydrogen.
Comments
and it has provided you with a lifestyle beyond anyone's imagination 100 years ago.
even the internet you are using to cut me down.
iwog, you should not call me a twit.
edited to add: this thread is too rough for me. i will leave it alone.
Iwog is at the top of the list of certifiables here on the forum. Take no offense.
An observation worth noting. These people (as a culture) weren't born yesterday..
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I didn't call you a twit, Mrearlygold is the twit.
Anyway don't get too used to your lifestyle, it's almost over. Our entire economy is based on cheap oil which WILL end in the next 50 years if not in the next 5. Besides your premise is clearly false since all 1st world countries enjoy the same lifestyle as we do and most don't spend insane amounts on weapons to enjoy it. The benefits of our society are economic, NOT military based, and the USSR proved that throwing all your money away on weapons WILL eventually lead to ruin.
<< <i>Over the years some of my biggest and best customers for better US Numismatics have been Asians.
An observation worth noting. These people (as a culture) weren't born yesterday.. >>
Baley, the Asians I know ( in Asia and the US) are all very successful business people who were not born into money. When they say they are going to do something, they do it. There's no half measures. They are also fully aware of how government systematically steals from people and precious metals, coins, gems, art, etc and other "portable" forms of wealth are in demand. I was somewhat involved in Hong Kong paper money about a year before the handover back to China and let me tell ya, everything along those lines went crazy.
I bought an ancient budhist buriel gold piece from the Han dynasty from a dealer friend in NY as a case in point for about 10K ( no they don't slab these boys and girls), and flipped it to a fellow from HK for 12K. It's easily worth 6 figures. Remember the Korean pieces at ANR's Eliasberg Sale?
I could tell you stories about life in Asia but it would really be off topic and it takes me too long to type. One of these days maybe we'll have voice accuated machines. That would be cool
I won't even reply to that nameless jerk off.
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Instead they tax you out the wazzoo. Germany and England both enjoy tax rates greater than 50%. The Scandinavian countries approach 90%.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm not alone. Bill Gates and Warren Buffett advocate EXACTLY THE SAME THING!
Anyway the argument concerned military spending and if that was really the cause of prosperity. I simply pointed to other 1st world countries to disprove the assertion. It had nothing to do with taxes.
<< <i>Anyway don't get too used to your lifestyle, it's almost over. >>
I remember a guy named Malthus a century and a half ago who said we were all going to starve to death. That didn't happen either.
<< <i>Our entire economy is based on cheap oil which WILL end in the next 50 years if not in the next 5. >>
No big deal, by then perhaps our politicians will have gotten a clue and we'll just use nuclear power and hydrogen cars.
I'd rather spend the money on the military than on welfare, SSI disability, etc. This is no joke--fully 40% of the customers who call in to get gas turned on, when asked who their employer is, say "I'm disabled." Is 40% of the state of Arkansas really disabled and unable to work? Or are people exploiting and manipulating the system, sitting at home on their lazy butts rather than going out and getting a job? We have two solutions to this problem: eliminate or dramatically reform social welfare programs, or enlarge the government by creating a beauracracy to oversee them. The latter is no solution at all.
Folks, we are going the way of the Romans. From 300-200 BC, the Roman Republic was solid and stable, relying on common sense rather than intense legalism to maintain its political stability. Look at the Americans With Disabilities Act. Imagine if the salient points had all been consolidated into a 30 page piece of legislation, rather than one than runs into the thousands of pages (after all, you have to write thousands of pages to fill all the loopholes that a reliance on common sense, rather than legalism, would have filled for you). Unfortunately for the Romans, well-intentioned individuals started exploiting loopholes for small things, eventually leading to people exploiting loopholes for big things, and the Republic collapsed. Our overly legalistic society creates bigger and bigger government. Eventually something will break. The size of the government is my concern--not the size of the military. Isn't there a problem when senators and congressmen don't have time to read the legislation they are voting on (or even sponsoring!) since each bill is dozens, if not hundreds, of pages long? They rely on aides to summarize the legislation, and make a voting decision based on summaries. Who then holds the power, the senators/congressmen, or the aides?
But I digress...
Malthus probably didn't envision a way to make fertilizer out of fossil fuels and had no way of knowing that engines running on oil would power farm equipment greatly enhancing the capacity of food production. His prediction wasn't wrong anyway, it was simply early. There is no one on earth that thinks we can feed the current population without fossil fuels OR a suitable substitute. Predicting a substitute energy source to save the world in the future must be taken entirely on faith since such a substitute does not currently exist.
But I digress. The end of cheap oil WILL happen within a lifetime. Some people think it will happen in the next year.
I'd rather spend the money on the military than on welfare, SSI disability, etc.
The amount of money spent on welfare programs is trivial compared to the military budget. I just find it facinating that the people advocating war are the same ones advocating tax cuts.
I love Ike dollars and all other dollar series !!!
I also love Major Circulation Strike Type Sets, clad Washingtons ('65 to '98) and key date coins !!!!!
If ignorance is bliss, shouldn't we have more happy people ??
<< <i>Can anyone summarize this thread in 25 words or less ?? >>
You first
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
The world economy is in big trouble. Store your wealth in hard assets or suffer. You have between 1 and 10 years to prepare.
I think that sums it up nicely.
Sure. Folks who bought Gold and Silver metals and stocks 4 years ago are happy investors. Those who buy today will have to wait a while.
Interesting post on the boxes. I also think it is interesting about the comment of a cash system. More Americans need to do trading in cash when they can. I have not been to a coin show in some time, but I assume gold, silver, and many coins can be bought and sold for cash money. There is a lot to be learned from the Asians. Like many of the folks in Europe they have been screwed so many times by their governments they have already been to school on fiat paper money. My personal feeling is that the general population in the U.S. has no experience in this area and many are going to have some hard lessons to learn.
Tom, the reason I think that certified coins are the way to go, even in bullion high grade coins, is that if and when there are big jumps in gold, for instance, the counterfeiters will be out in force. I may have mentioned that I contacted a friend in Shanghai not long ago looking for Chinese coins. His advice was that he would stay totally out of that market as well over 50% of the coins for sale there were counterfeit.
One area that may do very well in the next few years are modern certified gold pieces. Many countries now produce various size gold coins that even certified sell for a small percentage over their bullion value. Having the coins certified also leaves you a claim to the coin being a collectable if there was ever a gold recall.
Having the coins certified also leaves you a claim to the coin being a collectable if there was ever a gold recall. >>
Goldsaint, oh I agree with you onthe cerified part. I was only illustrating one piece in particular that can't be "slabbed".
I don't see how certifying any coins would prevent the government from seizing them. The lowlifes in government are by and large lawyers and as they've "interpreted" the Constitution in a way which has subverted if not the letter certainly the spirit of that grand document rendering it virtually meaningless at this point, they can certainly twist a couple words here, tweak one or two there and take anything they want. Only they have bigger fish to fry as we've recently seen with the new twist on property "rights".
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Well thats fine for you, but not me. If I bust my a$$ and work harder than my neighbor and make more money then I damm well better able to enjoy a greater lifestyle. Why should I be burdened by higher taxes because I gave up 4-8 years of my life to get an education that leads to a higher paying job? If my father works his a$$ off to build a nestegg for future generations then why should the government get a big chuck of it. They already taxed his income. There should be no estate taxes.
If Gates and Buffett want to give their money away then I say go ahead. They have enjoyed a fantastic lifestyle and will still be richer than 99% of the people if they give away 99% of their money. I'll be dammed if I will and they have no right imposing their will upon me.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Can anyone summarize this thread in 25 words or less ?? >>
Lets see:
1. The sky is falling.
2. We are all doomed....doomed I say.
3. It is the end of the world as we know it.
4. Pack up the wife and kids and head for the hills.
5. The United States is a third world country.
6. Rarely does anyone want to stick to the original topic of this thread.
Take your pick.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
25 words or less:
Discussion on metals, markets, and international economic predictions. Posters are urged to come into the thread with facts as opposed to hearsay or political opinions.
(Word count=25)
"Rarely does anyone want to stick to the original topic of this thread"
BEIJING - Chinese oil company CNOOC Ltd. is considering raising its $18.5 billion bid for Unocal Corp., according to a published report Wednesday.
The state-controlled company's board also was expected to consider making other changes to its bid, the Financial Times said, citing unidentified sources. It didn't say what the higher offer might be.
Spokesmen for Hong Kong-based CNOOC didn't immediately return telephone calls seeking comment.
A higher bid would reflect the state-controlled Chinese firm's determination to woo Unocal shareholders away from a competing bid of $16.6 billion by Chevron Corp.
"The board is unified. The board is interested in winning. Everyone is on the same page," the Financial Times quoted an unidentified person close to the Chinese offer as saying.
Unocal's 10-member board was expected to gather Wednesday to consider whether to recommend shareholders accept the CNOOC offer, revoking its earlier support for Chevron.
CNOOC and Unocal executives have been in talks on what changes to the Chinese bid might lead to it being declared superior to Chevron's by Unocal directors, according to the FT.
The Chinese firm says its all-cash offer is better than Chevron's promise of a mix of cash and stock because it would pay shareholders more and wouldn't result in as many job losses.
The CNOOC offer has prompted opposition from U.S. critics who say letting a Chinese state-controlled firm take over Unocal, the nation's ninth-largest oil company based in El Segundo, Calif., could endanger national security.
CNOOC has promised to cooperate with a U.S. government security review and says it would consider selling some assets in the United States and placing others under American control if necessary
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Several points here. First of all you should be able to make more money than your neighbor and enjoy a greater lifestyle. You should be able to utilize the labor of other people to enrich yourself. That is the capitalist system that works.
Therefore the argument is what type of economic system is sustainable and will allow you this freedom. Giving the government less money in taxes than it spends IS NOT SUSTAINABLE. It will lead to a run-away debt, devaluation of the dollar, and a depression. Therefore YOU MUST agree on a tax policy that pays the government's bills.
So who do you want to pay the bills? You suck all the money out of the consumer class and you KILL the economy. This is what happened in the 1920's and is probably responsible for the string of depressions we had during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. You cannot overtax the class that does all the consuming. Bill Gates can only drive one car at a time. Warren Buffett can only fly one airplane at a time. This is why my point about the economy being a zero sum game is so important. You CANNOT make a million dollars without taking it from someone else. The more money you give to the upper class, the fewer consumers you have and the more factories you close. Economics 101.
So who do you tax the money from?? #1 on the list is dead people. Incredibly, you're making the argument that it's unfair to tax a DEAD PERSON twice. The argument you're REALLY making is that the heirs of a fortune are entitled to all the money simply because they were lucky enough to be born into a rich family. They didn't work for it, but they get it anyway? This is aristocracy and it leads to corruption, poverty, and often war. Just ask the French.
So who is left to tax? The elite upper classes that have gained their wealth by exploiting the labor of other people. As I said previously, you do not need 50 billion dollars to enjoy the most elite lifestyle. 50-100 million would work just fine. We should RESTORE our tax policy to post World War II levels because it worked well, was sustainable, and gave workers a minimum standard of living that enabled them to consume and grow the economy. This is NOT socialism/communism. In fact, it was the tax policy in effect during the McCarthy communist witch hunts and nobody questioned it.
I agree with you 100%. But rather than try to get more money from people why not cut spending?
If you are having a rough financial year you cut back spending. If a company is having a rough go, it cuts back spending. The government is the only entity that increases its spending when the going gets rough. You better believe this is unsustainable.
Raising taxes only encourages more spending. This can only go on for so long. However a cut in spending would hurt the economy in the short term, it would lead to longer term growth and prosperity. The American consumer is still 2/3 of the economy vs 1/3 government. Keep the money in the hands of the people. They will spend it much more wisely than the govt. If you tax it all away from them then who is going to pick up the slack?
What this county needs is a good 'ole Boston tea party. Nobody pays their taxes for a year. Maybe that would get some heads rolling in Washington.
Now here is some economic news---The May trade deficit was $55.3 billion. That was slightly less than the expected $57.0 billion, and down slightly from $56.9 billion in April. This is positive in that it provides a bit more support to GDP calculations.
Also of good news this morning was the report that import prices excluding oil were down 0.4% in June.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Thanks MH
I am sure that it is hard for all of us to control our urge to place the blame on many of the things that are now changing America, it certainly is for me, but lets try, please.
We live in interesting, volatile, and perhaps exciting financial times. There are currently more economic changes in one year in the World as there were in a decade a century before. Not only that, but for the first time in history the common man can get on the net and find the real truth of what is happening in high finance, government manipulations, and just wheeling and dealing.
I for one have changed nearly all my financial habits the last couple of years. After tax cash money is very hard to come by, and I really want to do my homework, and look at every side of all my purchases before I invest. I collect coins as a part of my over all investment strategy. I did not start that way 40 years ago, but the investment potential is now a big part of what I buy and how much I will pay.
In the coin area there are still many bargains out there if you have some education on world finance. This is important because doing a little research on who may be your buyer, even in several years, is very important.
Obviously much of the U.S. rare coin market is VERY offer valued. The auctions are going nuts and folks with money to burn are pouring money into many of these high-end coins. Unfortunately many of these folks will get burned. The reason is simple, every product has a pyramid equation attached to it. The cheaper any product is the more folks at the bottom of the pyramid the higher priced the less buyers.
Here is an excellent example in 1997 a fellow bought the Burke 1817/4 Bust half dollar, one of only seven known in all grades. This coin has been on the market for at least one year. It is for sale once again with a reserve estimate among most collectors of $150,000. Of the 10,000 Bust collectors in the U.S. everyone would love to own this coin but how many are at the top of the pyramid who can write the check? The coin goes to auction on July 27th.
Perhaps a more important question would be, if the buyer wanted $200,000 in a few years who will step to the plate?
Hey Tom
This is very interesting.
The Chinese bid is already far and away better than the Chevron bid. It looks to me like the Chinese want to make this a test case. Obviously they want to start spending their U.S. paper. I think they want to make a clear case to the world if the bid is rejected either by the board or the congress. This is a very dangerous game. If the sale goes through it will be a signal to all holders of U.S. paper that America is for sale. The trillion dollars in U.S. debt out there, just to the Asians, is enough to buy nearly every major U.S. commodity and industrial company e own.
As I have said, I think this transaction is the most important financial item on the planet at this time.
If the Asian stop buying the debt were screwed, if we let them buy all or our companies were screwed.
How about this, lets tell them NO SALE, pass a 30% tariff on all foreign goods produced here, cut the government by 50% and cancel all entitlement programs but the safety nets for the VERY VERY POOR.
“ Now here is some economic news---The May trade deficit was $55.3 billion. That was slightly less than the expected $57.0 billion, and down slightly from $56.9 billion in April. This is positive in that it provides a bit more support to GDP calculations.”
Cohodk
Someone here is a real optimist if they think this is a POSITIVE. Lets forget the lose change and say that every month only hits $55 billion that’s still 660 BILLION DOLLARS GONE into the hands of the foreign devils. How many Unocal’s can you buy for 660 billion dollars?
Military spending: 400 billion + 100 billion special war funding. (estimate)
The current administration has people scared to death because of 20 men armed with box cutters. Any attempt to decrease the INSANE level of military spending will be viciously attacked by right wing wackos who think that a 20% reduction in spending would "gut" the military. In fact, one of the wackos has said as much in this very thread.
Interest on the national debt: 400 billion
Cutting this budget item would mean devaluation and ruin for our currency. It's gonna happen, but not by choice.
Health and Human services: 600 billion
Welfare!!!! Cut cut cut cut............. I'm sure the lies of the right have many people convinced that this is where you balance the budget. Nearly 500 billion of this budget is MEDICARE and MEDICADE, programs that have been greatly expanded under Bush and are currently a do-not-touch issue with both political parties.
So we have revenues of around 2 trillion dollars, and our current government cannot/wont touch 1.5 trillion in spending. What's the remaining 900 billion or so? Farm subsidies, corporate welfare, payments to foreign governments, pensions, insurance, NASA, etc. You want to see how hopeless the problem is??? The entire NASA budget for 2005 is 16 billion dollars. Our current deficit might be 500 billion a year. Totally eliminating NASA wouldn't even pay the interest on the deficit (not the debt) for a single year!!
I guess my point is that people think tax cuts grow on trees. When the top tax rate was 90%, people said it was too high. When it was 60% under Carter people said it was too high. When it was 39% under Clinton people said it was too high. This nonsense will only end with the next great depression and the realization that wealth disparity is financial suicide. Tax policy is the only way to fix this long term, and these protections are slowly going to hell.
<< <i>
<< <i>Can anyone summarize this thread in 25 words or less ?? >>
Lets see:
1. The sky is falling.
2. We are all doomed....doomed I say.
3. It is the end of the world as we know it.
4. Pack up the wife and kids and head for the hills.
5. The United States is a third world country.
6. Rarely does anyone want to stick to the original topic of this thread.
Take your pick. >>
This looks pretty close. I nearly posted this morning that:
The sky is falling. No, it's not. The sky is falling. No it's not. The sky is falling. No, it's not. The sky is falling.
25 words on the nose!!!
No, it's not, contractions are two words.
No, they aren't.
Nobody expects the spanish inquisition.
And as always, the outcome will be somewhere in between.
Once again, nothing is black and white, only different shades of grey.
Those on this board are more prepared for "whatever" than the average citizen..
Do you got your assets diversified? Are you paying attention?
if Yes, then I think you'll be just fine
I know I will..
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Malthus probably didn't envision a way to make fertilizer out of fossil fuels and had no way of knowing that engines running on oil would power farm equipment greatly enhancing the capacity of food production. His prediction wasn't wrong anyway, it was simply early. There is no one on earth that thinks we can feed the current population without fossil fuels OR a suitable substitute. Predicting a substitute energy source to save the world in the future must be taken entirely on faith since such a substitute does not currently exist.
>>
And you can see the future far more clearly than Malthus could, I suppose? Nuclear power doesn't exist? Dang, that must've been some hangover! I could have sworn it did!
<<
So who do you tax the money from?? #1 on the list is dead people. Incredibly, you're making the argument that it's unfair to tax a DEAD PERSON twice. The argument you're REALLY making is that the heirs of a fortune are entitled to all the money simply because they were lucky enough to be born into a rich family. They didn't work for it, but they get it anyway? This is aristocracy and it leads to corruption, poverty, and often war. Just ask the French.
>>
I'll assume that your will leaves all your money to the government. After all, when you're dead it's fair we take everything. I guess you won't be leaving a cent to your children, since they didn't work for it and therefore shouldn't get ANY of it.
"They didn't work for it, but they get it anyway"--Sounds very similar to our welfare system.
I just cut and paste from a leading market website. The stock market will interpret this as a positive in that it was less than expected.
Kind of like saying Hurricane Dennis had 120 MPH winds instead of 140 MPH.
The stock market is a leading indicator of about 9-12 months. Today the SP-500 is near 4 yr highs. It is obvious that wall street is not concerned about the trade deficit. And there is not a more skittish bunch than the boys in Manhattan.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Live here is still dam good, just be sure you plan well for some rougher roads.
I just returned from Europe. All small cars, we waste so much gas here with F150s, Suburbans and Tahoes that carry one to person 50 miles to work. We are spoiled and we will some day pay. I'd like to see gas at 6 bucks a gallon and a nuclear reactor in every city. Time to get off our oil addiction.
<< <i>
The stock market is a leading indicator of about 9-12 months. Today the SP-500 is near 4 yr highs. It is obvious that wall street is not concerned about the trade deficit. And there is not a more skittish bunch than the boys in Manhattan. >>
To me this isn't the end of the world but how should you protect yourself. Many lost half their wealth in 2000 in the stock market and the leading indicators didn't do much then when the automated buy/sell programs failed and the brokers couldn't convince the masses they were wrong. The end of the world....No. A major depression like the 30's is very possible. And like those smart rich investors then and the “all knowing” they’ll be jumping from buildings because they trusted the distorted government propaganda stats that is given out by whoever is in power. This has always been a trust/sales job and when that doesn't work watch out!
Here are a few examples:
1. The “illegals” are only taking jobs citizens don’t want.
My view is look around people! Have you noticed construction and roadwork is all Mexican? That’s not picking crops. Sorry to anyone here that’s Mexican here legally, this isn’t addressed toward you but any illegal. My ancestry originates from Italy in the late 1890’s and I have no ill felling toward immigrants.
2. The unemployment rate is 5% and the economy is roaring.
Again, if you go unemployed for too long your dropped off the list, so it should get better. This is a government distortion and the way these stats are designed. I’m a Republican and I like Bush but this is Washington’s propaganda and not just a party issue IMO. Whoever is in power the other side will point out this fact.
3. Jobs are growing and the economy is GREAT!
Again what are these jobs and are they high paying? IMO the high paying jobs are going to third world countries and being replaced by $8 to $12 an hour jobs. If I get laid off of my $40 hour job it will show up until I get laid off at my $20 an hour job and then the stats are distorted again. Americans aren’t doing better than the early 80’s to mid 90’s but the stats are rigged to suggest this. I have friends that have been laid off from high paying jobs to accept less and still get laid of 2 or 3 times in the last 8 years only to do worse every time in benefits and pay.
Argue if you will but stats are selected to show a point and dropped if they can’t defend them any longer. The stock market was dead for decades just like the coin market but if you pick the right years to present your claim or wait until a peak or near peak its looks so rosy. If you were caught up in the stock market in the 30’s or 40’s you were screwed or I’d hope you had several decades before retirement.
your observations vts the common myths.
A day of economic reality is coming and it will
be a painful experiance to many people in many
economic brackets. A period of war, nation building, high debt
low interest and taxes and a severe balance of payment and easy credit
is a witches brew of toil and trouble.
Camelot
S&P for 5 years
<< <i>Peak Oil >>
Thanks. Very interesting.
What concerns me most perhaps is the widespread belief that production will
look like a bell curve. This is most unlikely. Bell curves describe the incidence
of traits or individuals not the consumption of a commodity. As demand con-
tinues to increase much of the increase is for plastics and other products that
the world needs even more than cheap energy. This coupled with the fact that
increasing numbers of wells will be sucked dry to meet higher prices means that
the backside of this "curve" will be far steeper than the front. When oil peeks, it
will be a very short time (less than a generation) before there is no oil available
for energy.
Iwog....How do you find these websites?
I just returned from Europe. All small cars, we waste so much gas here with F150s, Suburbans and Tahoes that carry one to person 50 miles to work. We are spoiled and we will some day pay. I'd like to see gas at 6 bucks a gallon and a nuclear reactor in every city. Time to get off our oil addiction
Agreed 100%.....but it will take a long time. My lawyer just returned from Turkey where gas cost the equivilant of $10 per gallon. He said the economy seemed to be moving along quite well. Lots of cars on the road...albeit smaller. If the Turks can manage with energy costs that high then I imagine we can here as well.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Most people who write on doomsday topics are crackpots. The Internet is filled with stories of alien plots, Jewish conspiracies, religious fundamentalist Armageddon predictions, Y2K, nuclear holocaust, global warming, etc. etc. etc. Americans have been numbed and dumbed to the point of automatically dismissing anyone who predicts a catastrophic change to their current way of life. Anyone predicting a disaster is labeled a chicken little.
That's why we're going to get blind-sided in the worst way. Peak oil is a FACT that cannot be argued, only the implications and timing is subject to debate. It will happen sometime between tomorrow and the next 30 years. (there's at least one industry expert that says November 2005) The country that suffers the most lifestyle change will be the country that uses the most. (look in the mirror) Anyone planning to live longer than 10 years or who intends to leave children or grandchildren on the planet after they die MUST plan for it or suffer greatly.
On a personal level I've modified my thinking greatly. I'm no longer a strong silver bull. I still think that we'll need a medium of exhange after the currency goes to hell, and the fundamentals in favor of silver skyrocketing are still present, but in an energy starved planet I can't see much demand for consumer electronics and photography. People are going to need that money to simply get to work. I'm putting more investments in alternative energy and following Warren Buffett's lead. Buy nuclear/hydro-electric rich utility companies.
Of course some people will not understand or believe the crisis until their local gas station closes for lack of supply. Here's some very recent news on the subject. Mainstream media is starting to get the hint that something is wrong.
The hot topic on the overnights is
American Hiroshima Plan.
What happens to this country if al queda pulls it off? Warren Buffet has said.....'when' not 'if'.........
The price of gold is reflected in energy prices, it takes a lot of earth moving to find a little gold or silver.
On the bright side, there is considerable interest in alternative fuels (hydrogen, corn oil, fuel cells, hydrogen, etc) but more importantly, people are making cars that can actually use them such as the Pirus and other hybrids that are on the market right now. The demand for hybrids is huge as evidenced by the backorder lists for these new generation vehicles. They are becoming mainstream as are alternative fuels. Whole public agencies are going hydrogen and fuel cells are already on line, there is indeed plenty of reason for optimism. We can tell the OPEC to pound sand...how poetic. Hopefully; oil will be like coal, gone the way of the dinosaur and only used by poor, backward countries. We will be using CNG/LNG for plastics and medicines and alt. fuels for our industry and vehicles and hopefully, the demand for liquid oil by modern societies will drop to a trickle.
How many of you are worried about the Russian and China alliance? We may have won the battle but lose the war IMO. Russia has oil and natural resources that China needs and China has the manufacturing and manpower Russia needs. To top that off China is now in an alliance with India for the trained technology personal they need. Can these alliances hold? Only time will tell but don’t be a fool, China and Russia are buying there time and aren’t our friends. Your thoughts?
BTW: No well is just pumped 24 X 7 it's managed. They pump for several hours and let the well rest until the oil from the field can flow back to he pump. A field has a big decline, unlike he bell curve of our schools where they fix it to come out that way.
Hybrid vehicles can't fix the problem either. My wife's normal engine Honda Civic gets about 30-35 MPG as do most small cars in America today. The Prius gets 50 MPG. Although nice, it isn't a massive improvement and not a big factor in industry or the economy. Plastic, fertilizer, delivery systems, air travel, cooking, heating, and power generation have very little wiggle room when it comes to fossil fuel consumption.
Agreed 100%.....but it will take a long time. My lawyer just returned from Turkey where gas cost the equivilant of $10 per gallon. He said the economy seemed to be moving along quite well. Lots of cars on the road...albeit smaller. If the Turks can manage with energy costs that high then I imagine we can here as well.
The Turks can do this because oil production currently meets demand. Peak oil is about lack of supply at ANY price. When we hit the peak, the United States will be rich enough to bid $5 a gallon for gasoline thus taking it away from another country. This process will continue until the oil is removed from the poorest country who is probably using it for subsistance farming and famine will begin. A new equalibrium will be reached but only until the supply of oil drops AGAIN. Then the next poorest country on the list will have the oil turned off and THEY will starve. The next few decades isn't going to be pretty.
<< <i>Hopefully; oil will be like coal, gone the way of the dinosaur and only used by poor, backward countries. >>
Most likely oil will be like coal. We will not run out of it, it will just become too expensive to produce forcing us to find alternative energy sources. These are out there but until oil becomes expensive enough to force the world to harness this potential we will continue using it as our main source of energy. Of course there will be a time of adjustment which will be difficult but the end of the world is not near. Alternative energy stocks are already doing well and as more money is poured into r&d the more efficient we will become with producing and using a form of energy besides oil.
<< <i> The economic adjustment required will be a huge drop in GDP and depression. Even the best senarios cannot eliminate the huge jump in cost of doing business. >>
Was there a huge depression when the world switched from coal to oil as the primary energy source? We're not going to run out of oil tomorrow so hopefully the change over will be gradual. Necessity creates invention here is an example oil from waste
The plant in Carthage is using a technology called thermal depolymerization, which applies pressure and heat to the waste. The byproduct of the process is water clean enough to discharge into a treatment plant and minerals that can be used to make fertilizer and other products. The Carthage plant reportedly is designed to produce 400 to 500 barrels of oil per day from 200 tons of waste from a variety of sources. Officials from the plant estimate the oil produced to have a cost of $15 per barrel, half of the current world market price for crude oil.
Yes I know the chemistry of hydrogen, what's your point? Hydrogen cannot be an energy source, it can only be an energy carrier. There is no free hydrogen on planet earth and ALL non-fossil fuel sources of hydrogen cost more energy to produce then you get back.
Not to argue the point but in the era of converting coal to oil happened when this country was young and we didn’t really relay on energy as a whole. We were a farming country using horses to plows and little industrialization. Think of China or India, which is about to go though the same process that will drive up prices. It will hurt them but they can adapt since they haven’t made the transformation as a country yet.
Rewind to the 1880’s before all the technology along with cars and a population explosion and you can see the issue. Nuclear energy will make a come back no doubt but we need to do it NOW! These plants take a decade before they go online and we haven’t even started. We’ll survive IMO but it will be with a number of solutions at a high cost.
If a 1930’s style depression hits today were not equipped to handle it. All the skills and the agricultural society is long gone here, most don’t know or couldn’t live off the land like we could then. Those city folks thinking that Middle America are fools would find it very hard when they didn’t have food, energy, or national protection delivered to them by us. In this case….the stupid “Country Boy” will survive.
My family lives in Joplin and Monett and I haven't heard of the process your reporting but here in Tulsa the Trash to Energy was a huge flop. You seperated your garabage and paid more for them to pick it up to covert it to energy, they couldn't make it with a front end load. Nice link.
Thanks
<< <i>Iwog, please read the following: Hydrogen is the third most abundant element on the earth's surface, where it is found primarily in water (H²O) and organic compounds. It is generally produced from hydrocarbons or water; and when burned as a fuel, or converted to electricity, it joins with oxygen to again form water. >>
So far as I know nearly all means of separating oxygen from hydrogen requires
a tremendous amount of energy. Indeed, more energy is required than is released
for useful work because of mechanical inefficiencies. This means even more pollution
is produced than using electricity directly except where it's transported great distances.
We do have abundant coal and the means to quickly build the plants to produce hydrogen.