"The next cycle will be a Deusie." Yes it will, and it's not just the financials. The panics of the 1800's were localized in the US. I can agree with that. This current panic (cycle) is more global then any cycles before. Look back at the 1930's...look at what was going on here. The US bank failures were a catalyst to failures around the world, Germany and Britain especially hit hard. Nations began Isolationism. Dictators saw opportunities to feed upon hungry and hopeless souls and so forth. Wars.
This credit crisis is more imbedded. I've learned here that 70% of the money in banks around the world is the dollar. If the dollar fails through the ways discussed here before, the domino effect could be devastating. What entities would love to punish the US for its gluttony? What nations would love to see the US at its knees? What radical groups would love to attack during weakness? We are already in two wars, we have new leader that the world will want to test soon. Our enemies don't respect him and call him a "house negro" just today.
<< <i>so fc if gm goes under tell us your thoughts what will happen we lose 10 percent of the jobs in the country i as a bug hope you are right let the fur fly >>
Just as an FYI.. i used to live in MI for 25 years. I know its culture and ways of life rather well. When most people say GM they think of Detroit, MI. My dad's father and most of my uncles are ex-GM employees who are retired. I have my granda's gold retirement ring with a horseless carriage on it. I grew up in a city with GM plants and have worked in the cafeteria of a GM plant serving the guys and gals who worked there.
GM is too bloated to compete. Every car they make they have to shave off 2000 bucks worth of quality to pay the bills. The unions are not helping the situation by always demanding more as the ship is sinking. The CEOs have no long term vision and it is too late to start.
Everything has to be redone in order to make it competitive. The union has to cooperate. The CEOs have to be part of the team and cut all the costs they blow on themselves including their big fat paychecks. The people who own the land have to give the company some breaks so they can pay. Everything has to change... if not it is hopeless. 25 billion will not help in the long run. Bankruptcy should be declared so they can restructure everything and be more competitive.
MI is so hard up already. The city of Detroit.. the biggest employer there is the city of Detroit! The whole state needs to change to attract new business and become more like the Southern states where a company can come in and be competitive. Wages have to come down. You cannot give a person sweeping the floors 35 bucks an hour...
I am not sure what will happen but it has to happen. They cannot continue anymore and the pain should be taken now instead of later. People just do not trust GM cars anymore even if they have a few good models out there, they have dozens more that suck.
The chain reaction will hurt all the suppliers and businesses that depend on those factories. But since when does a business survive based on one big customer and not expect some day it could disappear?
I don't know. I will be back in MI in about 30 days for a couple of weeks. I will know better when I talk to my uncles and father about it. What will be the results that might happen. I moved away long ago because I saw the writing on the wall. I live in NH now. Live free or die. No state tax. No sales tax. Competitive atmosphere with the same weather and woods. It feels like MI. I like it here.
So FC Your a son of the the problem do you really think tank them now at our time in history is the answer don't we have enough problems with out causing more just a thought
"[T]he higher we tax even the wealthy, the more we lose population and the less job creation there is," Gov. Paterson said in an interview Friday. "We're pretty resigned to the fact that we're going to have to do this with spending cuts."
well someone who bought at 1.80 a while ago should be pleased with their 80% profit in a few days time. stocks. terrible investment. speculators would be crazy to buy them.
I appreciate your post, fc...good stuff. OK, so Ford shares are a buk a throw right now, cheaper than a gallon of gas. Congressman Dingle is no longer the chairman of the house energy and commerce committee right now...for those unaware of his role in this scheme, he's the one that refused to allow congress to pass stringent fuel economy standards and safety standards for US auto makers because it would cost profits for the auto makers even when people were screaming for it. Dingle
If anyone has thought about buying a car, particularly a chevy over the past couple of years and bothered to look up the user responses and ratings on edmonds.com, they would see the same thing repeated over and over..."cheap materials for interior finishes, poorly made in comparison to what else is available". I was a chevy guy for years and years, bought them new till they turned to crap, my last one was a '94; now I drive a nice Hundai and am grateful. When a South Korean company can outcompete the almighty GM and can make a better car for the money that is safer and more fuel efficient then it is time to reconsider the value of GM products. The commercials...the best car in America, 100 years of value, yeah...blow it out your backside, these products suck and the crash protection is very low on the scale of available cars. So you put sirius and a gps system in the car for decoration...the cars still suck.
We don't need these companies, to keep them is just prolonging the life of a dinosaur. Unfortunately there are so many people and industries that have nested under the congressional protection and union contracts and the insurance industries that we face a huge hit when these companies meet their well deserved fate. The big three have their fingers so deep in congress that it is simply amazing that we are seeing what we witness in the capitol hill hearings this week. It's very suprising that everyone would turn their backs on these companies and even dismiss Dingle at the same time. Amazing because these are the companies in everyone's retirement portfoio, in everyones managed fund, giving dividends to support everyone's retirement; they are so intertwined into our congress, our portfolios, our highway administration, that it's just amazing that people with the congressional wherewithall would finally say STOP!
One of the more interesting exchanges in the hearings yesterday was one congressman asked "How did you come up with 25 Billion, what does that buy; why isn't it 31 billion or 28 billion, how did you get to 25 billion? How do we know it's enough, how do we know that it will solve the problem, what does that do for us?" The auto boys couldn't give him an answer because they didn't know, they had just decided that they needed 25 billion right now, before the end of next month or the whole thing was going down...like they were holding a gun to the congressman's head saying give us the 25 bill or your unemployment figures go up 10% and you have to take over our unfunded pensions...but it didn't work. Finally the congress said NOPE...we're done here. And the car boys got back in their corporate jets and flew back to where they came from.
And we haven't even started on the oil industry complicity and how they have been loving the hummers and the escalades and tahoes and their 15 mile per gallon efficiency...it's even been in the papers...RECORD PROFITS FOR BIG OIL! Well, maybe it's over now. Maybe those guys making 70K a year putting on doors and bumpers are going to have to take retirement and find something else to do. Maybe the union organizers and union influence peddlers on capitol hill will have to invade a different market...maybe say undocumented farm workers or something like that. Maybe the execs will have to give up those corporate jets and South American vacations and second homes since they can't keep making money by putting up inferior products built with a failed business model supported by influence over congress. Maybe we can finally get an auto industry that is competitive on the international market.
To be competitive, we will have to make those cars in a foreign country where the labor is cheap and there are no unions or huge corporate taxes, we will have to buy parts made by third world industries by companies that are competitive on the international scale, we will have to market a product that is crash proof and fuel efficient, hey, it's about time. The big three have had a good history and have helped build America but they have had their song and it's time for the next act.
And, hey, I still like Ford trucks. What was once a very proud and important industry with very good labor and good people from top to bottom has become corrupted and bloated, like a fat pig thrashing about in a wallow. Ford for a buk...man, that looks tempting.
<< <i>And, hey, I still like Ford trucks. What was once a very proud and important industry with very good labor and good people from top to bottom has become corrupted and bloated, like a fat pig thrashing about in a wallow. Ford for a buk...man, that looks tempting. >>
Indeed, it certainly does. It would be easy to throw a grand or two there and see what happens. No real loss on the downside, with a very likely upside.
As far as Ford Trucks, they are and have been the best selling vehicle on the planet for many, many years. They've been selling one every 14 seconds, 24 hours a day, 52/365 X over a decade.
While I own four cars, none of them are made in the US, I gave up on US cars over 20 years ago. No, no Japanese econo boxes either. Real cars. Gran Turismo Omologato qualified cars. No American car can come close in any area.
However, when it comes to reliability, great craftmanship, solid engineering, that big Ford truck is is good as they come. It's not designed to do what the cars are, but for what it is designed for, it's an amazing ride and plush and comfortable in those big Captain's Chairs. Like the Energizer Bunny, I have regularly put 150K miles on them and found resale to be more like a auction than trying to sell a used car. Never had to do any more than add gas, oil changes, tires and one tune up over the life of owning each one.
I like Ford at a buck over GM at any price in today's market. If nothing else, they could scale back and just sell those trucks and be very profitable.
Then again, they do sell a full sized sedan in Europe that gets 75 miles to the gallon and they are quite popular. Why isn't it sold here? It's a Diesel engine, the EPA has determined that we don't need the increased usage of diesel. More of our Government shooting us in the foot. You can go there and buy one, they are fairly low priced compared to the market, but the Feds won't let you bring it home! You can bring home any other foreign deisel vehicle, but not that Ford. Too much fear that at 75 mles to the gallon, the American public would all want one. I suppose they would, now that I think about it. I might even want one too.
The incredible incompetence of our elected and appointed rulers is breathtaking!
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
RR correct me if i am wrong but the Indians are required to buy their gold in rupees, which more reflects the physical price rather than the NY Comex price?
24hGold devises trackers for real prices of gold and silver Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2008-11-19 20:55. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Eric Lemaire Editor, 24hGold.com Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Many of us precious metals watchers have been trying to find a way to apprehend the real price of gold and silver, the one us peons need to pay when we want to get our hands on the real thing.
The only worldwide non-Comex public pricing system is Ebay, so I have been working on the subject for quite a while to find a way to extract the price of gold and silver out of eBay.
Thus I have the honour to present you today 24hGold's two new pages:
Gold and silver coins with offers on eBay appear on the page, listed by country. For each coin, you will find:
-- Its name, fine weight, and instant metal value.
-- The price of the last sales on eBay to track the price: average price, premium over spot price of gold (or silver), the implied gold or silver value per ounce, and yesterday's average price for this specific coin.
-- The current offers on eBay in the United States and worldwide with the respective number of offers. You can click on the eBay buttons to get directly to the eBay page with all the coins for sale.
-- Various Ebay tools relevant to this coin: buy it now, newly listed, ending soonest, and completed listings.
There is also a search tool to start eBay directly if you are looking for something else.
Since eBay is different for each country, we have eBay pages for Canada, the United States, Australia, France, and the United Kingdom.
I hope that this tool will be useful to anyone who is interested in gold and silver and that it will help people get more physical in their hands, which is the key to wrecking the cartel.
I would be most grateful for ideas on how to improve these pages or new tools that would be helpful. You may contact me at:
24hGold devises trackers for real prices of gold and silver Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2008-11-19 20:55. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Eric Lemaire Editor, 24hGold.com Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Many of us precious metals watchers have been trying to find a way to apprehend the real price of gold and silver, the one us peons need to pay when we want to get our hands on the real thing.
The only worldwide non-Comex public pricing system is Ebay, so I have been working on the subject for quite a while to find a way to extract the price of gold and silver out of eBay.
Thus I have the honour to present you today 24hGold's two new pages:
Gold and silver coins with offers on eBay appear on the page, listed by country. For each coin, you will find:
-- Its name, fine weight, and instant metal value.
-- The price of the last sales on eBay to track the price: average price, premium over spot price of gold (or silver), the implied gold or silver value per ounce, and yesterday's average price for this specific coin.
-- The current offers on eBay in the United States and worldwide with the respective number of offers. You can click on the eBay buttons to get directly to the eBay page with all the coins for sale.
-- Various Ebay tools relevant to this coin: buy it now, newly listed, ending soonest, and completed listings.
There is also a search tool to start eBay directly if you are looking for something else.
Since eBay is different for each country, we have eBay pages for Canada, the United States, Australia, France, and the United Kingdom.
I hope that this tool will be useful to anyone who is interested in gold and silver and that it will help people get more physical in their hands, which is the key to wrecking the cartel.
I would be most grateful for ideas on how to improve these pages or new tools that would be helpful. You may contact me at:
editor@24hgold.com >>
Nice job, sounds like an awful lot of time invested.
I just make a couple calls around town and get the same results. Of course, it is a big city.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Mint suspends orders amid rush to buy bullion November 22, 2008
FEARS of the unknown long-term effects from the global financial crisis have sparked a new gold rush. With retail and wholesale clients around the world stocking up on the precious metal, the Perth Mint has been forced to suspend orders. As the World Gold Council reported that the dollar demand for gold reached a quarterly record of $US32 billion ($50.73 billion) in the third quarter, industry insiders said the race to secure physical gold had reached an intensity that had never been witnessed before. Perth Mint sales and marketing director Ron Currie said the unprecedented demand had forced the Mint to cease orders until January, with staff working seven days a week, 24-hour days, over three shifts to meet orders. He said Europe was leading the demand, with Russia, Ukraine, Middle East and US all buying -- making up 80 per cent of its sales. One European client purchased 30,000 ounces for $33 million. At a conference this week in Munich, delegates were lined up 30-deep to purchase physical gold. And reports out of the Middle East suggested that there had been unprecedented gold buying in Saudi Arabia during the first half of November, with an estimated $US3.5 billion purchased in recent weeks.
The figures showed retail investment demand rose 121 per cent to 232 tonnes in the third quarter, with strong bar and coin buying reported in Swiss, German and US markets.
The quarter also witnessed widespread reports of gold shortages among bullion dealers across the globe, as investors searched for a haven. Overall, quarter three saw Europe reach an all-time record 51 tonnes of bar and coin buying. France became a net investor in gold for the first time since the early 1980s.
Demand in India, the largest market for gold, recovered during the third quarter, encouraged by lower gold prices, a good monsoon and the onset of the festive season. At 250 tonnes, total consumer demand was 31 per cent higher than the same period last year. In value terms, demand hit the record quarterly sum of $US5 billion.
If you are looking for a decent trade, I just bought 2000 shares of Ford.
1000 @ 1.34. Immediately sold 10 covered calls, March at 3, for .45 cents. 1000 @ 1.28. Immediately sold 10 covered calls, Jan 10 at 2.5 for .78 cents.
Downside risk is for Ford to go bankrupt of course. If it does anything other than that, and I dont think Obama will let Ford go under, it is a great trade, especially if you can up the volume of the trade 10 fold from what I did.
I'd say the major producing miners that were crushed under much manipulation and deleveraging are a better buy. Any or all of the 3 car companies can go bust. That's not a trade I'd take ever. Why do that if you have real assets worth more than one's share price going for a song? While I'm not a fan of big bad Barrick, it was up over 30% today. What the hedge funds taketh away, gold giveth back.
The car companies went insolvent based on their financing plays (ie derivatives) far more than their actual auto products.
Trader Dan Comments On The Ongoing Comex Liquidation Posted: Nov 21 2008 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: November 21, 2008 at 9:52 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
Dear Friends,
This week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report gives us the details of the ongoing liquidation occurring at the Comex which has seen open interest drop to a meager 289,700 contracts as of the end of the reporting period from a peak that once reached 593,953 back at the beginning of this year in January. A washout of that magnitude is simply enormous. You would have to go back to June 2006 to see open interest in the gold at these levels.
One way I prefer to look at this is to say that more than 50% of the players who moved towards gold over the last 2 ½ years are gone from the market. What makes this even more interesting however is in June 2006, front month Comex gold was trading close to $585. This past Tuesday, with the open interest at the same level as that last week of June 2006, front month gold was trading at $730, a full $145 higher. Clearly, the rate of short covering that has occurred during this liquidation cycle was at a much higher rate than the rate at which these same shorts were put on. In other words, the shorts were more eager to get out than the longs were which is really saying something when we consider just how much hedge fund deleveraging and index fund redemption related selling has been occurring. When you have reports of unprecedented demand for gold bullion, shortages in the spot market, mints closing down sales, etc., as a short in the paper market, you simply no longer have any ammunition with which to bolster your side of the argument. You realize that you are flirting with the devil since the only thing you have going for you is long liquidation and that in and of itself cannot last indefinitely as even a paper market must eventually align itself with the real fundamental world. That alone is sufficient reason to take your profits quickly and do not tempt your luck. Greed that results in overstaying your welcome in a winning trade has done in many a trader and cut short their career. We saw today what happens to shorts who overstay their welcome in a market in which the fundamentals are pitted solidly against their positions.
Back to the details of the COT report for gold – The fund net long position actually registered a very small increase this week but this is not because of new buying on the part of the trading funds but rather due to a very large amount of short covering on the part of those funds who had decided to attack gold from the short side. They covered 6158 shorts against the liquidation of 5288 longs by their counterparts.
The commercials are more interesting - the bullion banks (the commercial shorts) did very little short covering this week compared to what they have previously been doing. They have been covering more than 10,000 shorts each week for some time now - this week they covered a piddly 801.
Clearly if you want to know who was doing the price capping at the $750 level last Friday, this Monday and this Tuesday- look no further than this group! Unfortunately for them, today they got buried as the buying from panicked short side specs along with new buying overwhelmed their line in the sand at that level. I expected them to try to make a stand at the $770-$780 level but the market ripped through that level without even missing a beat and ran all the way to $800 before the bullion banks could regain their footing.
What is important to note now is that gold has tripped several technical indicators into a “buy” mode and has also taken out several very important technical resistance levels. Things of such nature generally bring in technical based buying and with open interest so low and so many players having pulled out to sit on the sidelines, there is the potential for quite a bit of buying to come into the Comex should these folks decide to play that game again. I am most anxious to see the open interest numbers from today’s session that we will get Monday morning to see what might have transpired today. I do hope that we have seen an end to the drop off in open interest in gold as it is simply not possible to sustain any rallies for long without more new buying coming into the market. Maybe, just maybe, we have reached that point where the dreadful liquidation is over.
In the meantime, do not let down your guard or grow complacent because of a one day victory over the shorts. If you want to see a lot more of this, then continue to acquire the gold from the Comex warehouses by standing for delivery and taking it out of the warehouse. Nothing will unnerve the shorts more quickly and do more to undercut their confidence than to strip them of the metal and force them to come up with more of it to make good on deliveries. “Stand and Deliver or Go Home” should be the rallying cry of the longs to the shorts.
Technically front month Comex gold is now above the 10, 20 and 40 day moving averages. It closed right on the 50 day moving average. Both the 10 day and the 20 day have now turned upwards which will catch the attention of the trading funds. Next week will be both interesting and crucial especially since it is a holiday shortened trading week here in the US and that can bring added volatility as players move to the sidelines for a long vacation. We are also approaching that time of the year in which many traders simply close down their books and take off until the beginning of the New Year. That too brings a drop off in liquidity so there is potential for even more wild swings as we move into December, as if things were not already enough to give one a good case of vertigo.
See, I told ya they would have to go back to the wpa/ccc days to get something in return for the entitlements; this is a good thing. Beyond all my skepticism about brand D, this is one good thing it seems and would represent a good strategic start, in my mind. Some of the very best public works projects, reforestation projects, public art projects were done during this period when people so needed just a little work so they could make it. Now we'll see if they hold the line on working for benefits instead of just giving them out like candy on Christmas. I believe that if he does well with this it will help a lot. I'll post some links in case anyone is interested. There were some very stunning work done under these programs.
what i fear is Congress' caving in to the desires of the big 3 to be "assisted" in recovery. i read the letter from Pelosi and Reid and it reads (to me) that almost anything that appears viable on paper, submitted by the automakers will be blessed by Queen nancy and Prince Harry..... tax payer dollars. ..and i did read the "endearment" that the tax payers will be senior in being "repaid"....however that will be worked out let me know.
do we really think the big 3 will bring forth a viable business model for anything but massive restructuring, reduction?? the UAW is shaking in their respective hardhats for (IMO) they are as responsible as Congress is for stalling and manipulating CAFE requirements to the favor of "bigger is better". there was a time that Ford would make the "Focus" and the production and delivery costs were very close to the MSRP, where as the "Kobe" of SUV's the Escalade and Denali's made Detroit $K's
a HYBRID Tahoe?????? there are even buyer incentives for "flex-fuel" vehicles sold here in CA....uh but where are the stations that have 85 in CA? list of the 13, wow not all are even public! ...these are the kind of games Detroit has played with Congress and the people who are inticed to buy
when/if this should happen, what will stop other industries?
the only ray of hope was Dingle getting booted from the energy chair....
if you ask me, the staged rally at 3 yesterday afternoon was bs what? for Geithner? The same guy whose policy and ideas are one in the same with Paulson? What a joke. The market will rally on anything.
Something pushed the Dow up 500 pts and it wasn't the dollar, it wasn't Geithner per se, and it wasn't good economic news either. We won't know for a few weeks if Comex delivery requests played a role either. To me it smacks more of PPTism to give their new treasury chief a send off so the sheeple can get used to strong Dow days when his name is bellowed (like Puff the "magic dragon'). But they forgot to tank gold at the same time. Better luck next time Hank. You've crushed gold stocks so far down that there is no real way to push them down any further short of selling off real gold, if you can find some (hint...this is about where the IMF shows up threatening to sell their gold into the market).
While sticking another Goldman guy into the Treasury slot would have been too much for the public to take, Geithner is a true FED clone who can follow the party line. And there are plenty of ex-GSers in there already to lend a "non-manipulative" helping hand when needed.
I know exactly why the Dow went up 500 yesterday. It's because BO made a couple of decisions....Hilliary and the G-man. And this weekend he is painting broad brushstrokes for the economy for the next two years.
Look, the media "made" him. The "media" painted him as Lincoln, FDR and JFK on magazines. They are invested for the long haul. No one should under-estimate the Soros machine. As bad as the spin has been depressing the market, the spin will shift positively when BO tackles the issues. Any miss-step during the next four years will be blamed on "W" and the positives will be "miraculous."
But, no matter what the decisions are, the groundwork has been laid for a long, long recession.
I could see a BO-bounce back up to some 50-day trend lines...no way back up to 200-day, imho, before the year end. Then we will have to test these recent lows. I hope that this will be the end of it and we can just move sideways and build a base and recover. I don't want to see my 450/4,500 numbers. That would be a tough world to live in.
The greatest surprise of all are not the numbers, it's the speed at which we are hitting them. That in turn alarms me because how bad would the crash look if trillions weren't poured in.
<< <i>See, I told ya they would have to go back to the wpa/ccc days to get something in return for the entitlements; this is a good thing. Beyond all my skepticism about brand D, this is one good thing it seems and would represent a good strategic start, in my mind. Some of the very best public works projects, reforestation projects, public art projects were done during this period when people so needed just a little work so they could make it. Now we'll see if they hold the line on working for benefits instead of just giving them out like candy on Christmas. I believe that if he does well with this it will help a lot. I'll post some links in case anyone is interested. There were some very stunning work done under these programs.
I saw that too. I hope BO picks a couple of good architects because I sure do love the 1930's Deco-Style WPA buildings around the country. We have a very "cool" water plant down the street. They just don't build 'em like that anymore.
Axelrod on the economy: We have to 'Do Something Big'
Anyone getting (more) scared?
Axelrod suggested to BO to push for a stim-pac larger than $175b. Schumer says "I believe we need a pretty big package, here...I think it has to be deep. My view has to be between $500 to $700 billion. And that's because our economy's in serious, serious trouble."
And where is this money coming from, rhetorically speaking. We have a major debt problem and the solution for everything is more debt from money in our future that will not exist. "They" are lurching us higher and higher so that the fall will be greater and greater.
More and more, I'm wondering just what they are trying to do with all these economic fixes and big plans for our money with the bail outs and buying of companies and all this huge huge money moving around...just what are they trying to do. It's all so curiouser and curiouser. Are we trying to get to the borrow and spend mania of irrational exhuberance where everybody is hitting the credit cards and buying cars...hummmm, doubtful, nothing to fuel this kind of activity...no money. Are we trying to get the consumers to participate in this credit meatgrinder again' doubt they will, they are going cash or not borrowing and they are going to save. This change in the conusmer will wreck the consumer credit industries both in sales at stores and carrying the paper?
Are we trying to get business to hire again or for businesses to have access to bank money to borrow to pay for day to day expenses? Are we trying to stabilize the banks that own a bottomless pit of toxic paper or trying to make sure the big ones keep going and let the small independents fend for what they can get. Just what are we trying to do? I have not seen anyone address that in even a cursory pass. You hear pieces..."We need to get banks to lend again." which translates to A. I'm not going to give another bank my cash money for nothin' and B. I'm keepin' the cash so don't even ask. So what's this all about...what's the concept...If you give them enough money to fill in the blanks on their ledger, enough money so all those negative numbers at least get back to 0, that they will suddenly have tooooo much cash and have to get rid of some of it...hummmmm doubtful. Think that if they get enough money they can lend it for good interest when the fed lending rate is 1% and probably doing a Japan and dropping it to .5% next week...hey, talk about your carry trade, this could be huge...not. So, what are we trying to do here? So, how much money do they want or need...anybody ventured a wild ass guess on what that number might be...I scan the news pretty good and I haven't seen a number yet. I see the trillions number for bad paper the banks have but even that number is just a WAG...haven't seen a rational, believable number for either how much money the banks really need or how much poision is out there; haven't heard a real number with some kind of believable rational as support yet. So, how much do they really need if 700 bil isn't even going to touch it?
So, I'm a planner, been doing it fo 30 years and I know the way things move and how they act, how to make things work, that's how I make a living. I know what a plan looks like and hey, maybe it's just me but I don't see a plan here. My philosophy is that if you plan on getting something to happen then it is more likely to happen than if you just expect to bump in to it some day and it magically appears. I can say that when you have to ask basic questions like "What are they trying to do." and no one has even answered that then there are one of two things that are probably going on...A. they don't know what they are trying to do other than stop the bleeding, we aren't even to triage yet, we don't even know what the extent of the injuries are yet, or B. what ever they are doing they sure as hell aren't telling anyone which makes me think...somebody is going to get a huge screwin' and that makes me wonder just who that might be.
Hummmmmm...well, that's what thinkin will do for ya.
Sinclair put out a believable number many months ago at $20 TRILLION. With a 3-5% default rate I'd say that $30-$50 TRILLION might be more realistic. So TPTB have only touched on the real amount needed so far. Then again, we have several more years of bailing to reach these higher numbers.
There definitely is very little transparency with the bailout money. Paulson is not telling much. I did hear a snippet on the news a week or so ago that some of the bailout money was going to be used for BONUSES! Hope that is not true.....
I actually started getting into more stocks in my 401k. Do I think that stocks are bottomed out? Not necessarily. But I am getting somewhat uneasy with having most of the account in fixed accounts, etc. There is still the danger of currency and other derivatives imploding... and if that happens, I think many may have a bad surprise when it comes to their fixed accounts. Also, what would happen to these accounts if there is in fact an overnight revaluation or a new currency? (remote? but who knows in this environment) Fixed accounts will help pay for the deficit.
Better to be diversified equally with stocks, fixed money accounts and gold/silver/coins IMO. Hopefully something will survive this carnage.
<< <i>There definitely is very little transparency with the bailout money. Paulson is not telling much. I did hear a snippet on the news a week or so ago that some of the bailout money was going to be used for BONUSES! Hope that is not true.....
I actually started getting into more stocks in my 401k. Do I think that stocks are bottomed out? Not necessarily. But I am getting somewhat uneasy with having most of the account in fixed accounts, etc. There is still the danger of currency and other derivatives imploding... and if that happens, I think many may have a bad surprise when it comes to their fixed accounts. Also, what would happen to these accounts if there is in fact an overnight revaluation or a new currency? (remote? but who knows in this environment) Fixed accounts will help pay for the deficit.
Better to be diversified equally with stocks, fixed money accounts and gold/silver/coins IMO. Hopefully something will survive this carnage. >>
It's the bond market that has always scared me the most.
<< <i>hi all, been away for awile. I hope you all made loads of cash selling euros....
so what is new? >>
OK, OK, we'll have to get you up to speed. We have new leadership, Dear Leader, we like/have to say. You can't criticize....sensitive. The dollar has failed and so has gold and silver and you need to PM me for proper distribution of those worthless assets. Don't listen to anyone else. There is much paranoia going around... Not only do banks not trust each other neither do politicians...imagine.
Oh, and...I know you would think that Hillary won the top-dog stop if you just look at the picks to the cabinet....but...it's really crazy.....the change-guy....he picked this cabinet? I guess he adheres to the saying of keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
OK, now the shocker...gas....the type that goes into your SUV is $1.69 here. And global warming...the people now in charge call it climate change. They needed to get the "change" thing in there. Guns and ammo are gone...can't find them at the local feed store.
I hope this helps...but it's just the tip of the iceberg.
Oh, forgot...your 401k has been taken over to bailout bank CEO's. Otherwise, all is cool.
Gold In US Dollars Is Only Part Of The Picture Posted: Nov 24 2008 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: November 24, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
Dear Friends,
Linked below are a few charts detailing the price of gold when viewed through the prism of differing major currencies. As you can see, gold in British Pound terms has notched another new all time high. So did gold priced in Canadian Dollar terms. Gold in Australian dollar terms is just a wee bit below its all time high. The same goes for gold in terms of the Russian Ruble. Gold in Euro terms is 20 euros below its all time high. The weakest gold chart is Yen-Gold which has been hit because of the strength in the Yen coming from the carry trade unwind. That has served to push the yen sharply higher which depresses the price of gold when measured in those terms.
We Americans tend to view the price of gold only in US Dollar terms forgetting that a major portion of the world does not do so. It is my opinion that those American-based analysts who make their prognostications of gold without considering the price in terms of the other major currencies of the world do their readers a huge disservice. Ask yourself a simple question as you look at the following price charts – does this look like a metal that is experiencing a deflationary psyche among a large portion of the global investment community or does it look like a metal that is preserving the wealth of millions of international investors as the global economic chaos expands?
Keep this in mind whenever you read some self-proclaimed gold expert dissing the metal because it is not trading back above $1000 US and is anxious to short it. Such gloom and doom gold dirges would be met with incredulous scorn in the UK and perhaps with amusement in Canada and elsewhere. Australian investors must be thinking that American beers are missing a few vital ingredients if this is the kind of thinking that they are producing.
Whether some folks want to admit it or not, gold is an international currency of last resort and always will be, no matter how much the US based elites and their paper love-sick puppies want to pooh-pooh it.
Whether some folks want to admit it or not, gold is an international currency of last resort and always will be, no matter how much the US based elites and their paper love-sick puppies want to pooh-pooh it.
do those charts just show a "strong US dollar" vs all the other currencies AND gold on the charts?....not so much the "paper-puppie-lovers poop place of preference"?
Comments
This credit crisis is more imbedded. I've learned here that 70% of the money in banks around the world is the dollar. If the dollar fails through the ways discussed here before, the domino effect could be devastating. What entities would love to punish the US for its gluttony? What nations would love to see the US at its knees? What radical groups would love to attack during weakness? We are already in two wars, we have new leader that the world will want to test soon. Our enemies don't respect him and call him a "house negro" just today.
Yeah, this cycle could be a real Deusie.
<< <i>so fc
if gm goes under tell us your thoughts what will happen
we lose 10 percent of the jobs in the country
i as a bug hope you are right let the fur fly >>
Just as an FYI.. i used to live in MI for 25 years. I know its culture
and ways of life rather well. When most people say GM they think
of Detroit, MI. My dad's father and most of my uncles are ex-GM
employees who are retired. I have my granda's gold retirement
ring with a horseless carriage on it. I grew up in a city with GM plants
and have worked in the cafeteria of a GM plant serving the guys
and gals who worked there.
GM is too bloated to compete. Every car they make they have to shave
off 2000 bucks worth of quality to pay the bills. The unions are not
helping the situation by always demanding more as the ship is sinking. The CEOs have no long term vision and it is too late to start.
Everything has to be redone in order to make it competitive. The union
has to cooperate. The CEOs have to be part of the team and cut all
the costs they blow on themselves including their big fat paychecks.
The people who own the land have to give the company some breaks
so they can pay. Everything has to change... if not it is hopeless. 25
billion will not help in the long run. Bankruptcy should be declared
so they can restructure everything and be more competitive.
MI is so hard up already. The city of Detroit.. the biggest employer
there is the city of Detroit! The whole state needs to change to attract
new business and become more like the Southern states where
a company can come in and be competitive. Wages have to come down. You cannot give a person sweeping the floors 35 bucks an hour...
I am not sure what will happen but it has to happen. They cannot
continue anymore and the pain should be taken now instead of later.
People just do not trust GM cars anymore even if they have a few
good models out there, they have dozens more that suck.
The chain reaction will hurt all the suppliers and businesses that
depend on those factories. But since when does a business survive
based on one big customer and not expect some day it could disappear?
I don't know. I will be back in MI in about 30 days for a couple of
weeks. I will know better when I talk to my uncles and father about
it. What will be the results that might happen. I moved away long ago
because I saw the writing on the wall. I live in NH now. Live free
or die. No state tax. No sales tax. Competitive atmosphere with
the same weather and woods. It feels like MI. I like it here.
Your a son of the the problem
do you really think tank them now at our time in history is the answer
don't we have enough problems with out causing more
just a thought
"[T]he higher we tax even the wealthy, the more we lose population and the less job creation there is," Gov. Paterson said in an interview Friday. "We're pretty resigned to the fact that we're going to have to do this with spending cuts."
New York Budget Gaps Threaten Broader Economy
<< <i>What Jim Rogers thinks you should buy now >>
Jim Rogers is da man!
<< <i>Big 3 auto makers: help is on the way >>
well someone who bought at 1.80 a while ago should be pleased
with their 80% profit in a few days time. stocks. terrible investment.
speculators would be crazy to buy them.
If anyone has thought about buying a car, particularly a chevy over the past couple of years and bothered to look up the user responses and ratings on edmonds.com, they would see the same thing repeated over and over..."cheap materials for interior finishes, poorly made in comparison to what else is available". I was a chevy guy for years and years, bought them new till they turned to crap, my last one was a '94; now I drive a nice Hundai and am grateful. When a South Korean company can outcompete the almighty GM and can make a better car for the money that is safer and more fuel efficient then it is time to reconsider the value of GM products. The commercials...the best car in America, 100 years of value, yeah...blow it out your backside, these products suck and the crash protection is very low on the scale of available cars. So you put sirius and a gps system in the car for decoration...the cars still suck.
We don't need these companies, to keep them is just prolonging the life of a dinosaur. Unfortunately there are so many people and industries that have nested under the congressional protection and union contracts and the insurance industries that we face a huge hit when these companies meet their well deserved fate. The big three have their fingers so deep in congress that it is simply amazing that we are seeing what we witness in the capitol hill hearings this week. It's very suprising that everyone would turn their backs on these companies and even dismiss Dingle at the same time. Amazing because these are the companies in everyone's retirement portfoio, in everyones managed fund, giving dividends to support everyone's retirement; they are so intertwined into our congress, our portfolios, our highway administration, that it's just amazing that people with the congressional wherewithall would finally say STOP!
One of the more interesting exchanges in the hearings yesterday was one congressman asked "How did you come up with 25 Billion, what does that buy; why isn't it 31 billion or 28 billion, how did you get to 25 billion? How do we know it's enough, how do we know that it will solve the problem, what does that do for us?" The auto boys couldn't give him an answer because they didn't know, they had just decided that they needed 25 billion right now, before the end of next month or the whole thing was going down...like they were holding a gun to the congressman's head saying give us the 25 bill or your unemployment figures go up 10% and you have to take over our unfunded pensions...but it didn't work. Finally the congress said NOPE...we're done here. And the car boys got back in their corporate jets and flew back to where they came from.
And we haven't even started on the oil industry complicity and how they have been loving the hummers and the escalades and tahoes and their 15 mile per gallon efficiency...it's even been in the papers...RECORD PROFITS FOR BIG OIL! Well, maybe it's over now. Maybe those guys making 70K a year putting on doors and bumpers are going to have to take retirement and find something else to do. Maybe the union organizers and union influence peddlers on capitol hill will have to invade a different market...maybe say undocumented farm workers or something like that. Maybe the execs will have to give up those corporate jets and South American vacations and second homes since they can't keep making money by putting up inferior products built with a failed business model supported by influence over congress. Maybe we can finally get an auto industry that is competitive on the international market.
To be competitive, we will have to make those cars in a foreign country where the labor is cheap and there are no unions or huge corporate taxes, we will have to buy parts made by third world industries by companies that are competitive on the international scale, we will have to market a product that is crash proof and fuel efficient, hey, it's about time. The big three have had a good history and have helped build America but they have had their song and it's time for the next act.
And, hey, I still like Ford trucks. What was once a very proud and important industry with very good labor and good people from top to bottom has become corrupted and bloated, like a fat pig thrashing about in a wallow. Ford for a buk...man, that looks tempting.
<< <i>And, hey, I still like Ford trucks. What was once a very proud and important industry with very good labor and good people from top to bottom has become corrupted and bloated, like a fat pig thrashing about in a wallow. Ford for a buk...man, that looks tempting. >>
Indeed, it certainly does. It would be easy to throw a grand or two there and see what happens. No real loss on the downside, with a very likely upside.
As far as Ford Trucks, they are and have been the best selling vehicle on the planet for many, many years. They've been selling one every 14 seconds, 24 hours a day, 52/365 X over a decade.
While I own four cars, none of them are made in the US, I gave up on US cars over 20 years ago. No, no Japanese econo boxes either. Real cars. Gran Turismo Omologato qualified cars. No American car can come close in any area.
However, when it comes to reliability, great craftmanship, solid engineering, that big Ford truck is is good as they come. It's not designed to do what the cars are, but for what it is designed for, it's an amazing ride and plush and comfortable in those big Captain's Chairs. Like the Energizer Bunny, I have regularly put 150K miles on them and found resale to be more like a auction than trying to sell a used car. Never had to do any more than add gas, oil changes, tires and one tune up over the life of owning each one.
I like Ford at a buck over GM at any price in today's market. If nothing else, they could scale back and just sell those trucks and be very profitable.
Then again, they do sell a full sized sedan in Europe that gets 75 miles to the gallon and they are quite popular. Why isn't it sold here? It's a Diesel engine, the EPA has determined that we don't need the increased usage of diesel. More of our Government shooting us in the foot. You can go there and buy one, they are fairly low priced compared to the market, but the Feds won't let you bring it home! You can bring home any other foreign deisel vehicle, but not that Ford. Too much fear that at 75 mles to the gallon, the American public would all want one. I suppose they would, now that I think about it. I might even want one too.
The incredible incompetence of our elected and appointed rulers is breathtaking!
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Linky
24hGold devises trackers for real prices of gold and silver
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2008-11-19 20:55. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Eric Lemaire
Editor, 24hGold.com
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Many of us precious metals watchers have been trying to find a way to apprehend the real price of gold and silver, the one us peons need to pay when we want to get our hands on the real thing.
The only worldwide non-Comex public pricing system is Ebay, so I have been working on the subject for quite a while to find a way to extract the price of gold and silver out of eBay.
Thus I have the honour to present you today 24hGold's two new pages:
Gold on eBay, U.S. and Worldwide:
Gold page
And silver on eBay, U.S. and Worldwide:
Silver page
Here is how they work.
Gold and silver coins with offers on eBay appear on the page, listed by country. For each coin, you will find:
-- Its name, fine weight, and instant metal value.
-- The price of the last sales on eBay to track the price: average
price, premium over spot price of gold (or silver), the implied gold or silver value per ounce, and yesterday's average price for this specific coin.
-- The current offers on eBay in the United States and worldwide with the respective number of offers. You can click on the eBay buttons to get directly to the eBay page with all the coins for sale.
-- Various Ebay tools relevant to this coin: buy it now, newly listed, ending soonest, and completed listings.
There is also a search tool to start eBay directly if you are looking for something else.
Since eBay is different for each country, we have eBay pages for Canada, the United States, Australia, France, and the United Kingdom.
I hope that this tool will be useful to anyone who is interested in gold and silver and that it will help people get more physical in their hands, which is the key to wrecking the cartel.
I would be most grateful for ideas on how to improve these pages or new tools that would be helpful. You may contact me at:
editor@24hgold.com
<< <i>Linky
24hGold devises trackers for real prices of gold and silver
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2008-11-19 20:55. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Eric Lemaire
Editor, 24hGold.com
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Many of us precious metals watchers have been trying to find a way to apprehend the real price of gold and silver, the one us peons need to pay when we want to get our hands on the real thing.
The only worldwide non-Comex public pricing system is Ebay, so I have been working on the subject for quite a while to find a way to extract the price of gold and silver out of eBay.
Thus I have the honour to present you today 24hGold's two new pages:
Gold on eBay, U.S. and Worldwide:
Gold page
And silver on eBay, U.S. and Worldwide:
Silver page
Here is how they work.
Gold and silver coins with offers on eBay appear on the page, listed by country. For each coin, you will find:
-- Its name, fine weight, and instant metal value.
-- The price of the last sales on eBay to track the price: average
price, premium over spot price of gold (or silver), the implied gold or silver value per ounce, and yesterday's average price for this specific coin.
-- The current offers on eBay in the United States and worldwide with the respective number of offers. You can click on the eBay buttons to get directly to the eBay page with all the coins for sale.
-- Various Ebay tools relevant to this coin: buy it now, newly listed, ending soonest, and completed listings.
There is also a search tool to start eBay directly if you are looking for something else.
Since eBay is different for each country, we have eBay pages for Canada, the United States, Australia, France, and the United Kingdom.
I hope that this tool will be useful to anyone who is interested in gold and silver and that it will help people get more physical in their hands, which is the key to wrecking the cartel.
I would be most grateful for ideas on how to improve these pages or new tools that would be helpful. You may contact me at:
editor@24hgold.com >>
Nice job, sounds like an awful lot of time invested.
I just make a couple calls around town and get the same results. Of course, it is a big city.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Many members on this forum that now it cannot fit in my signature. Please ask for entire list.
Well the filter made me put a "-" between market and watch in the link and you'll have to remove it for it to work correctly.
Link: http://www.market-watch.com/news/story/Well-Great-Depession-2-2011/story.aspx?guid={B28B49B5-EFD1-4941-B57E-A2BA1545BA09}&dist=hplatest
Mint suspends orders amid rush to buy bullion
November 22, 2008
FEARS of the unknown long-term effects from the global financial crisis have sparked a new gold rush.
With retail and wholesale clients around the world stocking up on the precious metal, the Perth Mint has been forced to suspend orders.
As the World Gold Council reported that the dollar demand for gold reached a quarterly record of $US32 billion ($50.73 billion) in the third quarter, industry insiders said the race to secure physical gold had reached an intensity that had never been witnessed before.
Perth Mint sales and marketing director Ron Currie said the unprecedented demand had forced the Mint to cease orders until January, with staff working seven days a week, 24-hour days, over three shifts to meet orders.
He said Europe was leading the demand, with Russia, Ukraine, Middle East and US all buying -- making up 80 per cent of its sales. One European client purchased 30,000 ounces for $33 million.
At a conference this week in Munich, delegates were lined up 30-deep to purchase physical gold. And reports out of the Middle East suggested that there had been unprecedented gold buying in Saudi Arabia during the first half of November, with an estimated $US3.5 billion purchased in recent weeks.
The figures showed retail investment demand rose 121 per cent to 232 tonnes in the third quarter, with strong bar and coin buying reported in Swiss, German and US markets.
The quarter also witnessed widespread reports of gold shortages among bullion dealers across the globe, as investors searched for a haven. Overall, quarter three saw Europe reach an all-time record 51 tonnes of bar and coin buying. France became a net investor in gold for the first time since the early 1980s.
Demand in India, the largest market for gold, recovered during the third quarter, encouraged by lower gold prices, a good monsoon and the onset of the festive season. At 250 tonnes, total consumer demand was 31 per cent higher than the same period last year. In value terms, demand hit the record quarterly sum of $US5 billion.
If you are looking for a decent trade, I just bought 2000 shares of Ford.
1000 @ 1.34. Immediately sold 10 covered calls, March at 3, for .45 cents.
1000 @ 1.28. Immediately sold 10 covered calls, Jan 10 at 2.5 for .78 cents.
Downside risk is for Ford to go bankrupt of course. If it does anything other than that, and I dont think Obama will let Ford go under, it is a great trade, especially if you can up the volume of the trade 10 fold from what I did.
John
siliconvalleycoins.com
The car companies went insolvent based on their financing plays (ie derivatives) far more than their actual auto products.
roadrunner
Posted: Nov 21 2008 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: November 21, 2008 at 9:52 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
Dear Friends,
This week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report gives us the details of the ongoing liquidation occurring at the Comex which has seen open interest drop to a meager 289,700 contracts as of the end of the reporting period from a peak that once reached 593,953 back at the beginning of this year in January. A washout of that magnitude is simply enormous. You would have to go back to June 2006 to see open interest in the gold at these levels.
One way I prefer to look at this is to say that more than 50% of the players who moved towards gold over the last 2 ½ years are gone from the market. What makes this even more interesting however is in June 2006, front month Comex gold was trading close to $585. This past Tuesday, with the open interest at the same level as that last week of June 2006, front month gold was trading at $730, a full $145 higher. Clearly, the rate of short covering that has occurred during this liquidation cycle was at a much higher rate than the rate at which these same shorts were put on. In other words, the shorts were more eager to get out than the longs were which is really saying something when we consider just how much hedge fund deleveraging and index fund redemption related selling has been occurring. When you have reports of unprecedented demand for gold bullion, shortages in the spot market, mints closing down sales, etc., as a short in the paper market, you simply no longer have any ammunition with which to bolster your side of the argument. You realize that you are flirting with the devil since the only thing you have going for you is long liquidation and that in and of itself cannot last indefinitely as even a paper market must eventually align itself with the real fundamental world. That alone is sufficient reason to take your profits quickly and do not tempt your luck. Greed that results in overstaying your welcome in a winning trade has done in many a trader and cut short their career. We saw today what happens to shorts who overstay their welcome in a market in which the fundamentals are pitted solidly against their positions.
Back to the details of the COT report for gold – The fund net long position actually registered a very small increase this week but this is not because of new buying on the part of the trading funds but rather due to a very large amount of short covering on the part of those funds who had decided to attack gold from the short side. They covered 6158 shorts against the liquidation of 5288 longs by their counterparts.
The commercials are more interesting - the bullion banks (the commercial shorts) did very little short covering this week compared to what they have previously been doing. They have been covering more than 10,000 shorts each week for some time now - this week they covered a piddly 801.
Clearly if you want to know who was doing the price capping at the $750 level last Friday, this Monday and this Tuesday- look no further than this group! Unfortunately for them, today they got buried as the buying from panicked short side specs along with new buying overwhelmed their line in the sand at that level. I expected them to try to make a stand at the $770-$780 level but the market ripped through that level without even missing a beat and ran all the way to $800 before the bullion banks could regain their footing.
What is important to note now is that gold has tripped several technical indicators into a “buy” mode and has also taken out several very important technical resistance levels. Things of such nature generally bring in technical based buying and with open interest so low and so many players having pulled out to sit on the sidelines, there is the potential for quite a bit of buying to come into the Comex should these folks decide to play that game again. I am most anxious to see the open interest numbers from today’s session that we will get Monday morning to see what might have transpired today. I do hope that we have seen an end to the drop off in open interest in gold as it is simply not possible to sustain any rallies for long without more new buying coming into the market. Maybe, just maybe, we have reached that point where the dreadful liquidation is over.
In the meantime, do not let down your guard or grow complacent because of a one day victory over the shorts. If you want to see a lot more of this, then continue to acquire the gold from the Comex warehouses by standing for delivery and taking it out of the warehouse. Nothing will unnerve the shorts more quickly and do more to undercut their confidence than to strip them of the metal and force them to come up with more of it to make good on deliveries. “Stand and Deliver or Go Home” should be the rallying cry of the longs to the shorts.
Technically front month Comex gold is now above the 10, 20 and 40 day moving averages. It closed right on the 50 day moving average. Both the 10 day and the 20 day have now turned upwards which will catch the attention of the trading funds. Next week will be both interesting and crucial especially since it is a holiday shortened trading week here in the US and that can bring added volatility as players move to the sidelines for a long vacation. We are also approaching that time of the year in which many traders simply close down their books and take off until the beginning of the New Year. That too brings a drop off in liquidity so there is potential for even more wild swings as we move into December, as if things were not already enough to give one a good case of vertigo.
what? for Geithner? The same guy whose policy and ideas are one in the same with Paulson?
What a joke. The market will rally on anything.
Look for DOW 6000 before year end.
The talking heads sure were excited by the rally.
Many feel the ferocity of the financial meltdown has been augmented by the negativity from the talking heads.
After all, it is a confidence game.
Many of us feel a major financial realignment was way overdue and yet the talking heads at the time preached prosperity.
It will be interesting to see if the talking heads continue with their renewed optimism and what if any effect it may have.
Stay tuned ......... the sheeple may be more content sooner than we would think.
Watching U.S.'s Growing Insanity
WPA/CCC
WPA public works and art
civil projects
Forestry and conservation
what i fear is Congress' caving in to the desires of the big 3 to be "assisted" in recovery. i read the letter from Pelosi and Reid and it reads (to me) that almost anything that appears viable on paper, submitted by the automakers will be blessed by Queen nancy and Prince Harry..... tax payer dollars. ..and i did read the "endearment" that the tax payers will be senior in being "repaid"....however that will be worked out let me know.
do we really think the big 3 will bring forth a viable business model for anything but massive restructuring, reduction?? the UAW is shaking in their respective hardhats for (IMO) they are as responsible as Congress is for stalling and manipulating CAFE requirements to the favor of "bigger is better". there was a time that Ford would make the "Focus" and the production and delivery costs were very close to the MSRP, where as the "Kobe" of SUV's the Escalade and Denali's made Detroit $K's
a HYBRID Tahoe?????? there are even buyer incentives for "flex-fuel" vehicles sold here in CA....uh but where are the stations that have 85 in CA? list of the 13, wow not all are even public! ...these are the kind of games Detroit has played with Congress and the people who are inticed to buy
when/if this should happen, what will stop other industries?
the only ray of hope was Dingle getting booted from the energy chair....
what? for Geithner? The same guy whose policy and ideas are one in the same with Paulson? What a joke. The market will rally on anything.
Something pushed the Dow up 500 pts and it wasn't the dollar, it wasn't Geithner per se, and it wasn't good economic news either. We won't know for a few weeks if Comex delivery requests played a role either. To me it smacks more of PPTism to give their new treasury chief a send off so the sheeple can get used to strong Dow days when his name is bellowed (like Puff the "magic dragon'). But they forgot to tank gold at the same time. Better luck next time Hank. You've crushed gold stocks so far down that there is no real way to push them down any further short of selling off real gold, if you can find some (hint...this is about where the IMF shows up threatening to sell their gold into the market).
While sticking another Goldman guy into the Treasury slot would have been too much for the public to take, Geithner is a true FED clone who can follow the party line. And there are plenty of ex-GSers in there already to lend a "non-manipulative" helping hand when needed.
roadrunner
Look, the media "made" him. The "media" painted him as Lincoln, FDR and JFK on magazines. They are invested for the long haul. No one should under-estimate the Soros machine. As bad as the spin has been depressing the market, the spin will shift positively when BO tackles the issues. Any miss-step during the next four years will be blamed on "W" and the positives will be "miraculous."
But, no matter what the decisions are, the groundwork has been laid for a long, long recession.
I could see a BO-bounce back up to some 50-day trend lines...no way back up to 200-day, imho, before the year end. Then we will have to test these recent lows. I hope that this will be the end of it and we can just move sideways and build a base and recover. I don't want to see my 450/4,500 numbers. That would be a tough world to live in.
The greatest surprise of all are not the numbers, it's the speed at which we are hitting them. That in turn alarms me because how bad would the crash look if trillions weren't poured in.
Ren
<< <i>See, I told ya they would have to go back to the wpa/ccc days to get something in return for the entitlements; this is a good thing. Beyond all my skepticism about brand D, this is one good thing it seems and would represent a good strategic start, in my mind. Some of the very best public works projects, reforestation projects, public art projects were done during this period when people so needed just a little work so they could make it. Now we'll see if they hold the line on working for benefits instead of just giving them out like candy on Christmas. I believe that if he does well with this it will help a lot. I'll post some links in case anyone is interested. There were some very stunning work done under these programs.
WPA/CCC
WPA public works and art
civil projects
Forestry and conservation >>
I saw that too. I hope BO picks a couple of good architects because I sure do love the 1930's Deco-Style WPA buildings around the country. We have a very "cool" water plant down the street. They just don't build 'em like that anymore.
Ren
Anyone getting (more) scared?
Axelrod suggested to BO to push for a stim-pac larger than $175b. Schumer says "I believe we need a pretty big package, here...I think it has to be deep. My view has to be between $500 to $700 billion. And that's because our economy's in serious, serious trouble."
And where is this money coming from, rhetorically speaking. We have a major debt problem and the solution for everything is more debt from money in our future that will not exist. "They" are lurching us higher and higher so that the fall will be greater and greater.
Ren
More and more, I'm wondering just what they are trying to do with all these economic fixes and big plans for our money with the bail outs and buying of companies and all this huge huge money moving around...just what are they trying to do. It's all so curiouser and curiouser. Are we trying to get to the borrow and spend mania of irrational exhuberance where everybody is hitting the credit cards and buying cars...hummmm, doubtful, nothing to fuel this kind of activity...no money. Are we trying to get the consumers to participate in this credit meatgrinder again' doubt they will, they are going cash or not borrowing and they are going to save. This change in the conusmer will wreck the consumer credit industries both in sales at stores and carrying the paper?
Are we trying to get business to hire again or for businesses to have access to bank money to borrow to pay for day to day expenses? Are we trying to stabilize the banks that own a bottomless pit of toxic paper or trying to make sure the big ones keep going and let the small independents fend for what they can get. Just what are we trying to do? I have not seen anyone address that in even a cursory pass. You hear pieces..."We need to get banks to lend again." which translates to A. I'm not going to give another bank my cash money for nothin' and B. I'm keepin' the cash so don't even ask. So what's this all about...what's the concept...If you give them enough money to fill in the blanks on their ledger, enough money so all those negative numbers at least get back to 0, that they will suddenly have tooooo much cash and have to get rid of some of it...hummmmm doubtful. Think that if they get enough money they can lend it for good interest when the fed lending rate is 1% and probably doing a Japan and dropping it to .5% next week...hey, talk about your carry trade, this could be huge...not. So, what are we trying to do here? So, how much money do they want or need...anybody ventured a wild ass guess on what that number might be...I scan the news pretty good and I haven't seen a number yet. I see the trillions number for bad paper the banks have but even that number is just a WAG...haven't seen a rational, believable number for either how much money the banks really need or how much poision is out there; haven't heard a real number with some kind of believable rational as support yet. So, how much do they really need if 700 bil isn't even going to touch it?
So, I'm a planner, been doing it fo 30 years and I know the way things move and how they act, how to make things work, that's how I make a living. I know what a plan looks like and hey, maybe it's just me but I don't see a plan here. My philosophy is that if you plan on getting something to happen then it is more likely to happen than if you just expect to bump in to it some day and it magically appears. I can say that when you have to ask basic questions like "What are they trying to do." and no one has even answered that then there are one of two things that are probably going on...A. they don't know what they are trying to do other than stop the bleeding, we aren't even to triage yet, we don't even know what the extent of the injuries are yet, or B. what ever they are doing they sure as hell aren't telling anyone which makes me think...somebody is going to get a huge screwin' and that makes me wonder just who that might be.
Hummmmmm...well, that's what thinkin will do for ya.
roadrunner
I actually started getting into more stocks in my 401k. Do I think that stocks are bottomed out? Not necessarily. But I am getting somewhat uneasy with having most of the account in fixed accounts, etc. There is still the danger of currency and other derivatives imploding... and if that happens, I think many may have a bad surprise when it comes to their fixed accounts. Also, what would happen to these accounts if there is in fact an overnight revaluation or a new currency? (remote? but who knows in this environment) Fixed accounts will help pay for the deficit.
Better to be diversified equally with stocks, fixed money accounts and gold/silver/coins IMO. Hopefully something will survive this carnage.
<< <i>There definitely is very little transparency with the bailout money. Paulson is not telling much. I did hear a snippet on the news a week or so ago that some of the bailout money was going to be used for BONUSES! Hope that is not true.....
I actually started getting into more stocks in my 401k. Do I think that stocks are bottomed out? Not necessarily. But I am getting somewhat uneasy with having most of the account in fixed accounts, etc. There is still the danger of currency and other derivatives imploding... and if that happens, I think many may have a bad surprise when it comes to their fixed accounts. Also, what would happen to these accounts if there is in fact an overnight revaluation or a new currency? (remote? but who knows in this environment) Fixed accounts will help pay for the deficit.
Better to be diversified equally with stocks, fixed money accounts and gold/silver/coins IMO. Hopefully something will survive this carnage. >>
It's the bond market that has always scared me the most.
be heavily over bought. That means that the Prices
are too high and the interest rate too low. This will
reverse at sometime in the future and a great deal
of money can be lost if the bonds and T-Bills are not
held until maturity. As for Corporate Bonds, who
really knows what the underlying value is, of the Company
issuing the bonds?
Camelot
<< <i>ALL RISE, THE DEAR LEADER SPEAKS! >>
Kind of funny, the market has dropped over 100 points since he started talking, no different from the current pres.
I hope you all made loads of cash selling euros....
so what is new?
I have found power in the mysteries of thought.
It is always a question of knowing and seeing, and not that of believing.
Our virtues, and our failings are inseparable, like force, and matter. When they separate, man is no more.
.
UBS clients and US taxation...and the whole Swiss thingy
probably see a US split/sell-off of UBS
<< <i>hi all, been away for awile.
I hope you all made loads of cash selling euros....
so what is new? >>
OK, OK, we'll have to get you up to speed. We have new leadership, Dear Leader, we like/have to say. You can't criticize....sensitive. The dollar has failed and so has gold and silver and you need to PM me for proper distribution of those worthless assets. Don't listen to anyone else. There is much paranoia going around... Not only do banks not trust each other neither do politicians...imagine.
Oh, and...I know you would think that Hillary won the top-dog stop if you just look at the picks to the cabinet....but...it's really crazy.....the change-guy....he picked this cabinet? I guess he adheres to the saying of keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
OK, now the shocker...gas....the type that goes into your SUV is $1.69 here. And global warming...the people now in charge call it climate change. They needed to get the "change" thing in there. Guns and ammo are gone...can't find them at the local feed store.
I hope this helps...but it's just the tip of the iceberg.
Oh, forgot...your 401k has been taken over to bailout bank CEO's. Otherwise, all is cool.
Ren
This one is a Deusie. Good reading for those following the longer term charts. Alf is certainly not a believer in the gold is dead theory.
Rob Kirby on how miscalculated interest rates helped kill the automakers, airlines, etc.
roadrunner
Gold In US Dollars Is Only Part Of The Picture
Posted: Nov 24 2008 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: November 24, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini
Dear Friends,
Linked below are a few charts detailing the price of gold when viewed through the prism of differing major currencies. As you can see, gold in British Pound terms has notched another new all time high. So did gold priced in Canadian Dollar terms. Gold in Australian dollar terms is just a wee bit below its all time high. The same goes for gold in terms of the Russian Ruble. Gold in Euro terms is 20 euros below its all time high. The weakest gold chart is Yen-Gold which has been hit because of the strength in the Yen coming from the carry trade unwind. That has served to push the yen sharply higher which depresses the price of gold when measured in those terms.
We Americans tend to view the price of gold only in US Dollar terms forgetting that a major portion of the world does not do so. It is my opinion that those American-based analysts who make their prognostications of gold without considering the price in terms of the other major currencies of the world do their readers a huge disservice. Ask yourself a simple question as you look at the following price charts – does this look like a metal that is experiencing a deflationary psyche among a large portion of the global investment community or does it look like a metal that is preserving the wealth of millions of international investors as the global economic chaos expands?
Keep this in mind whenever you read some self-proclaimed gold expert dissing the metal because it is not trading back above $1000 US and is anxious to short it. Such gloom and doom gold dirges would be met with incredulous scorn in the UK and perhaps with amusement in Canada and elsewhere. Australian investors must be thinking that American beers are missing a few vital ingredients if this is the kind of thinking that they are producing.
Whether some folks want to admit it or not, gold is an international currency of last resort and always will be, no matter how much the US based elites and their paper love-sick puppies want to pooh-pooh it.
Trader Dan
Charts
Deflation? Quantitative Easing?
Ren
<< <i>
Whether some folks want to admit it or not, gold is an international currency of last resort and always will be, no matter how much the US based elites and their paper love-sick puppies want to pooh-pooh it.
Trader Dan
Charts >>
do those charts just show a "strong US dollar" vs all the other currencies AND gold on the charts?....not so much the "paper-puppie-lovers poop place of preference"?
is a toothpick. They have to shave an entire
tree to get a single toothpick the right shape.
I believe that toothpicks will replace gold as a
measure of true value. Its also good to get food
out of your teeth.
Camelot