<< <i>Dang and oldie thread. Too bad it doesn't have a poll. >>
What's funny is, I still wouldn't! >>
Neither would I.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I would rather trade in physical coins I can as a dealer using my expretise to buy right / sell at retail which I know can yield me at least a 15% return on my inventory regardless what the market does.
Now if a rare coin mutual fund was indexed say to the PGCS 3000 or some similar measure then that might attract a lot of people. But it would have to show definite returns competetive with stock mutual funds, etc.
Coins are a hobby and with the demand for CAC and differences in opinion about TPG's its tough to argue they are "fungible" items.
And lets not forget the excitement of CC cartwheel luster on the beauty of Gem Early 20th Century Gold.
Coins do offer financial privacy and a coin business is one of the last true havens of free enterprise. There is nothing like the excitement of completing a super buying deal on the bourse or in the shop with lots of goodies or a big sale with lots of positive gross margin. Or that exciting acquisition of something like a nice CC Double Eagle.
I looks like a good way to get ripped off to me. If I can't have the coins in my bank box, I don't want anything to do with them.
Many years ago there was this dude who called himself "The little profit dealer" who claimed to be holding a lot of gold for people who were investing in it. Come to find out, he didn't have nearly enough gold to cover the "investments" he was holding for people. He headed off on the lamb in Mexico, and the people who gave their money to him became the "The big loss suckers" who got nothing.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
I would rather that the coin world not be mutualized but I might invest in a coin fund under some special conditions. That changes a hobby into a very different sport with very different rules.
No way, Jose! If you think 1-2% fees is steep in a stock mutual fund, imagine the additional cost overhead to operate a fund involving coins. Besides that, you wouldn't get any enjoyment from actually owning/viewing the coins, which is arguably the biggest "dividend" to one's coin "investment".
. . . Just ask the folks at the Ohio pension funds how a coin fund worked for them ! ! !
HH
Need the following OBW rolls to complete my 46-64 Roosevelt roll set: 1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S. Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
I remember the launch of the NFA World Coin Fund, LP by Merrill Lynch in Jan 1990 . I was an executive at Merrill at the time and still have the ancient Greek coin in a small presentation box that the marketing team gave to the Merrill execs attending the meeting.
If you look at the chart of the PCGS3000 index you can see why Merrill was so excited about launching the fund. The index had increased over 600% in the previous 8 years, greatly eclipsing the performance of the Dow Jones average which was, itself, in a strong uptrend.
I didn't think it was a good idea then and would not invest in such an fund now. For many valid reasons.
These are the same people who wouldn't invest in CLCT before earnings because "everyone knew" they were going to be good. Stock up $2 since earnings. Every investment has pros and cons. As part of a well diversified portfolio, a coin fund would be a fine investment for certain people.
I just don't see how this could be possible without leading those in control of the money down the path of moral bankruptcy. Too much conflict of interest.
Buying from the U.S. Mint is like managing your own mutual fund. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose... but you get to choose and the fees (premiums) are paid upfront while the taxes (after cost basis) are paid on the back end. It's a win win for US, and YOU, too.
Good point. What a politically motivated witch hunt that was. I forget the guys name who took the fall for this, and he might still be in jail, but Ohio actually made money on this even thought they were forced to sell in distress mode. It might not be the right thing for everyone, but there is nothing wrong with coin funds in general if run honestly, just like any other type of fund or investment.
<< <i>Just hope that when they open the vault that is supposed to hold the coins it contains more than hot air. >>
That is exactly my concern. Even the ANA collection was looted by the curator entrusted to manage that collection.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I might buy a small position to be included in a lager portfolio but I maintain there are better funds out there bought and managed by people who know funds and not coins. The Avg investor doesn't really have access to the funds that have the elite coins locked away in them like 1870-s dollars and what not which are poised to show greater than avg returns. I would be afraid that a public coin fund with have NGC slabs of high grade moderns in them and stuff bought on the angle and would end badly except for the manger who was able to pay off his house before the bottom fell out
Just hope that when they open the vault that is supposed to hold the coins it contains more than hot air.
How is that any different than the Gold ETF (GLD)? Or your pension? Or Social Security? Or your money sitting in a money market at MF Global or a Cyprus Bank? Aren't they all promises too?
It seems to me the less you guys know about something, the more you trust it, and the more you know, the less you trust it. I wonder if that is true of the population at large.
<< <i>I might buy a small position to be included in a lager portfolio but I maintain there are better funds out there bought and managed by people who know funds and not coins. The Avg investor doesn't really have access to the funds that have the elite coins locked away in them like 1870-s dollars and what not which are poised to show greater than avg returns. I would be afraid that a public coin fund with have NGC slabs of high grade moderns in them and stuff bought on the angle and would end badly except for the manger who was able to pay off his house before the bottom fell out >>
The only way the concept would be at all workable would be for such a fund to trade "commodity" coins with huge populations and published bids. Otherwise, the matter of pricing the shares would be untenable. How do you know what an 1870-s dollar is really "worth" without auctioning it?
. . . Just ask the folks at the Ohio pension funds how a coin fund worked for them ! ! !
HH >>
Actually, they made a profit >>
How much more would they have made if the fund wasn't liquidated swiftly? A lot more, I'm guessing. How much more would they have made if the manager hadn't used the assets for personal gain? Even more, I venture. I don't remember exactly, but I thought all of the coins were ultimately accounted for.
I think a coin fund, properly managed, would be a fine idea, and would bring a great deal of exposure to coins. And that could be very good for the hobby/business, or very bad.
<< <i>I might buy a small position to be included in a lager portfolio but I maintain there are better funds out there bought and managed by people who know funds and not coins. The Avg investor doesn't really have access to the funds that have the elite coins locked away in them like 1870-s dollars and what not which are poised to show greater than avg returns. I would be afraid that a public coin fund with have NGC slabs of high grade moderns in them and stuff bought on the angle and would end badly except for the manger who was able to pay off his house before the bottom fell out >>
The only way the concept would be at all workable would be for such a fund to trade "commodity" coins with huge populations and published bids. Otherwise, the matter of pricing the shares would be untenable. How do you know what an 1870-s dollar is really "worth" without auctioning it? >>
Ask yourself where are all of the 1870-s dollars esp the top ones? That is just one example but I think a stock pile of the pinnacle type stuff is the surest fire bet in the game. Asset management for an asset fund is not the same thing as a commodity based index fund actively traded in a two way market.
There is one way I might invest. If it was a unit trust or exchange traded fund with specified holdings.
As an example, the SPY or QQQ are exchange traded funds with specified holdings. The holdings in the "rare coin ETF" should all be NGC or PCGS graded and if they were all CAC that would be even better.
That way an investor could value the portfolio himself and see if the fund shares or units were priced correctly.
ETFs like SPY and QQQ post their net asset value every day and it is updated something like every minute. The "rare coin ETF" would value assets perhaps on a weekly basis. They could use the PCGS or NGC value schedule but the fund would likely sell at a 15% or higher discount to that.
Invest in a coin mutual fund? If- and only if- I personally knew the trader. Even then I'd be hesitant. You know how people are (rightly so) complaining about excess "maintenance fees" & "operating expenses" that mutual fund managers love to stick to the share holder? Imagine all the extra fees that coin traders could pass on:
(1) 1-2 day slabbing (2) trader travel expenses (understandable to a certain point; however, was that 12 oz steak & glass of Scotch really necessary..?) (3) repeated resubmission/crossover fees (4) "research" fees in the form of premium memberships to coin info websites. In fact, such websites might create unnecessary classes of accounts just to extort more money from the supposed coin mutual fund shareholders. Airlines use similar strategies.
Now imagine potential fraud:
(1) The coin mutual fund distorts market prices for a certain coin by bidding ridiculously high on similar coins, or offers kickbacks to someone else for bidding really high on similar coins. Such action would cause the general hobby participants to value such coins higher in their trade, setting up a new price level. (2) Artificial toning. (3) Repeated resubmissions- if a coin is bound to fall into the hands of a "generous grader," there's a higher probability for over grading (4) Any other conflict of interest that could arise from balancing a need to provide high returns to the shareholder, and from respecting the hobby's norms.
It's paper gold and silver bought on margin. So much demand that they could never honor the contracts.
Years ago when I read the prospectus (my info is dated and my memory faded) I recall it occured to me that if the ETF's melted down and went bust, the holders of the paper did not own the gold/silver... but it was the custodians of the PM's. I wont even comment on the fact that HBSC/JPM (?) were accused by the Bush Admin of manipulating the PM market. Imagine how bad the manipulation must of been for them to take action?
I own a diversified portfolio of individual stocks. I can reasonably understand what CAT, WFC, DTV do to make money, buy the stock and even forget about it for some extended amount of time. Based on a valuation model I prefer, a bit of timing and the benefit of time... I'm comfortable with my investment decision.
Coins seem to be a plastic shell game already. Illiquid with no real market efficiency to control the bid ask. The small amount of money that it would take to influence the market would only lead to its collapse.
Even with my sorry education, my part time attention, I routinely beat the S+P Index 500. Comparable to any Ivy league educated investment guru on Wall Street. Mutual fund managers are forced to tradefor short term gains. Hedge fund managers are paid to take enormous risk. Coin dealers would take there money and laugh all the way to the bank.
Google and read the PDF file called Buffett Paradox by AMI Investments. It mirrors my thoughts on mutual funds and investing in general. Buffett's approach is mind blowing simple if you got the stones... I prefer a lot of little rocks, but I digress.
The key to any investment is to understand the risk. Understand the investment. Coins? Outside of becoming a dealer? No Way!
In a heartbeat. I have always believed that experts in the field running a mutual fund can do way better than the individual because they have more knowlege and buying power. In the long term if run honestly, this should produce excellent returns.
As I've already said, I could see a fund working well if everything is done right. So, to me, there's a more interesting "next question". How much money could a fund work intelligently before there would not be enough opportunities to spend the money? My best guess is that the best fund managers would find it hard to work more than $100 million, with perhaps a third of that dedicated to "modern crap".
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
My best guess is that the best fund managers would find it hard to work more than $100 million, with perhaps a third of that dedicated to "modern crap".
You act like that's a bad thing.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
If the most the new investment fund would allow per person to invest was $100 per person to be a part owner in lets say, TDN's most expensive coin he owns, then I would imagine many more posters would say, why the heck not????
Coins.........are terrible investments except for a scant few folks at the top of the pyramid.
Remember the Jefferson Missing Edge Letter Presidential Dollars. All pruchased by an investment firm and sold via telephone. As much as $7950 for MS67's which today have a price well south of $1,000.
Someone made some money but the "investors" lost their shirts. I'm certain that such a "mutual fund" would suffer from constant Federal Investigations.
I decided to change calling the bathroom the John and renamed it the Jim. I feel so much better saying I went to the Jim this morning.
Comments
<< <i>Dang and oldie thread. Too bad it doesn't have a poll.
What's funny is, I still wouldn't!
<< <i>
<< <i>Dang and oldie thread. Too bad it doesn't have a poll.
What's funny is, I still wouldn't!
Neither would I.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Now if a rare coin mutual fund was indexed say to the PGCS 3000 or some similar measure then that might attract a lot of people. But it would have to show definite returns competetive with stock mutual funds, etc.
Coins are a hobby and with the demand for CAC and differences in opinion about TPG's its tough to argue they are "fungible" items.
And lets not forget the excitement of CC cartwheel luster on the beauty of Gem Early 20th Century Gold.
Coins do offer financial privacy and a coin business is one of the last true havens of free enterprise. There is nothing like the excitement of completing a super buying deal on the bourse or in the shop with lots of goodies or a big sale with lots of positive gross margin. Or that exciting acquisition of something like a nice CC Double Eagle.
I looks like a good way to get ripped off to me. If I can't have the coins in my bank box, I don't want anything to do with them.
Many years ago there was this dude who called himself "The little profit dealer" who claimed to be holding a lot of gold for people who were investing in it. Come to find out, he didn't have nearly enough gold to cover the "investments" he was holding for people. He headed off on the lamb in Mexico, and the people who gave their money to him became the "The big loss suckers" who got nothing.
Coins for sale at link below
https://photos.google.com/album/AF1QipOjnCxgCp-n8gYJQgRdXlCI34R45OKLG7d1lyX5
-Mike
That changes a hobby into a very different sport with very different rules.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
cost overhead to operate a fund involving coins. Besides that, you wouldn't get any enjoyment
from actually owning/viewing the coins, which is arguably the biggest "dividend" to one's coin
"investment".
. . . Just ask the folks at the Ohio pension funds how a coin fund worked for them ! ! !
HH
1947-P & D; 1948-D; 1949-P & S; 1950-D & S; and 1952-S.
Any help locating any of these OBW rolls would be gratefully appreciated!
and still have the ancient Greek coin in a small presentation box that the marketing team gave to the
Merrill execs attending the meeting.
If you look at the chart of the PCGS3000 index you can see why Merrill was so excited about
launching the fund. The index had increased over 600% in the previous 8 years, greatly
eclipsing the performance of the Dow Jones average which was, itself, in a strong uptrend.
I didn't think it was a good idea then and would not invest in such an fund now. For many valid reasons.
null
Every investment has pros and cons. As part of a well diversified portfolio, a coin fund would be a fine investment for certain people.
I would rather be in control of my own coins!
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
U.S. Type Set
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
<< <i>Hummm . . .
. . . Just ask the folks at the Ohio pension funds how a coin fund worked for them ! ! !
HH >>
Actually, they made a profit
Good point. What a politically motivated witch hunt that was. I forget the guys name who took the fall for this, and he might still be in jail, but Ohio actually made money on this even thought they were forced to sell in distress mode.
It might not be the right thing for everyone, but there is nothing wrong with coin funds in general if run honestly, just like any other type of fund or investment.
<< <i>Just hope that when they open the vault that is supposed to hold the coins it contains more than hot air. >>
That is exactly my concern. Even the ANA collection was looted by the curator entrusted to manage that collection.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I would not
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
How is that any different than the Gold ETF (GLD)? Or your pension? Or Social Security? Or your money sitting in a money market at MF Global or a Cyprus Bank? Aren't they all promises too?
It seems to me the less you guys know about something, the more you trust it, and the more you know, the less you trust it. I wonder if that is true of the population at large.
<< <i>I might buy a small position to be included in a lager portfolio but I maintain there are better funds out there bought and managed by people who know funds and not coins. The Avg investor doesn't really have access to the funds that have the elite coins locked away in them like 1870-s dollars and what not which are poised to show greater than avg returns. I would be afraid that a public coin fund with have NGC slabs of high grade moderns in them and stuff bought on the angle and would end badly except for the manger who was able to pay off his house before the bottom fell out
The only way the concept would be at all workable would be for such a fund to trade "commodity" coins
with huge populations and published bids. Otherwise, the matter of pricing the shares would be untenable.
How do you know what an 1870-s dollar is really "worth" without auctioning it?
<< <i>
<< <i>Hummm . . .
. . . Just ask the folks at the Ohio pension funds how a coin fund worked for them ! ! !
HH >>
Actually, they made a profit >>
I also thought Certified Assets Management has an active coin fund.....
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
<< <i>
<< <i>Hummm . . .
. . . Just ask the folks at the Ohio pension funds how a coin fund worked for them ! ! !
HH >>
Actually, they made a profit >>
How much more would they have made if the fund wasn't liquidated swiftly? A lot more, I'm guessing.
How much more would they have made if the manager hadn't used the assets for personal gain? Even more, I venture.
I don't remember exactly, but I thought all of the coins were ultimately accounted for.
I think a coin fund, properly managed, would be a fine idea, and would bring a great deal of exposure to coins. And that could be very good for the hobby/business, or very bad.
Tom
<< <i>
<< <i>I might buy a small position to be included in a lager portfolio but I maintain there are better funds out there bought and managed by people who know funds and not coins. The Avg investor doesn't really have access to the funds that have the elite coins locked away in them like 1870-s dollars and what not which are poised to show greater than avg returns. I would be afraid that a public coin fund with have NGC slabs of high grade moderns in them and stuff bought on the angle and would end badly except for the manger who was able to pay off his house before the bottom fell out
The only way the concept would be at all workable would be for such a fund to trade "commodity" coins
with huge populations and published bids. Otherwise, the matter of pricing the shares would be untenable.
How do you know what an 1870-s dollar is really "worth" without auctioning it? >>
Ask yourself where are all of the 1870-s dollars esp the top ones? That is just one example but I think a stock pile of the pinnacle type stuff is the surest fire bet in the game. Asset management for an asset fund is not the same thing as a commodity based index fund actively traded in a two way market.
As an example, the SPY or QQQ are exchange traded funds with specified holdings.
The holdings in the "rare coin ETF" should all be NGC or PCGS graded and if they were all
CAC that would be even better.
That way an investor could value the portfolio himself and see if the fund shares or units were
priced correctly.
ETFs like SPY and QQQ post their net asset value every day and it is updated something like every minute.
The "rare coin ETF" would value assets perhaps on a weekly basis. They could use the PCGS or NGC value schedule
but the fund would likely sell at a 15% or higher discount to that.
You know how people are (rightly so) complaining about excess "maintenance fees" & "operating expenses" that mutual fund managers love to stick to the share holder? Imagine all the extra fees that coin traders could pass on:
(1) 1-2 day slabbing
(2) trader travel expenses (understandable to a certain point; however, was that 12 oz steak & glass of Scotch really necessary..?)
(3) repeated resubmission/crossover fees
(4) "research" fees in the form of premium memberships to coin info websites. In fact, such websites might create unnecessary classes of accounts just to extort more money from the supposed coin mutual fund shareholders. Airlines use similar strategies.
Now imagine potential fraud:
(1) The coin mutual fund distorts market prices for a certain coin by bidding ridiculously high on similar coins, or offers kickbacks to someone else for bidding really high on similar coins. Such action would cause the general hobby participants to value such coins higher in their trade, setting up a new price level.
(2) Artificial toning.
(3) Repeated resubmissions- if a coin is bound to fall into the hands of a "generous grader," there's a higher probability for over grading
(4) Any other conflict of interest that could arise from balancing a need to provide high returns to the shareholder, and from respecting the hobby's norms.
Interests:
Pre-Jump Grade Project
Toned Commemoratives
It's paper gold and silver bought on margin. So much demand that they could never honor the contracts.
Years ago when I read the prospectus (my info is dated and my memory faded) I recall it occured to me that if the ETF's melted down and went bust, the holders of the paper did not own the gold/silver... but it was the custodians of the PM's. I wont even comment on the fact that HBSC/JPM (?) were accused by the Bush Admin of manipulating the PM market. Imagine how bad the manipulation must of been for them to take action?
I own a diversified portfolio of individual stocks. I can reasonably understand what CAT, WFC, DTV do to make money, buy the stock and even forget about it for some extended amount of time. Based on a valuation model I prefer, a bit of timing and the benefit of time... I'm comfortable with my investment decision.
Coins seem to be a plastic shell game already. Illiquid with no real market efficiency to control the bid ask. The small amount of money that it would take to influence the market would only lead to its collapse.
Even with my sorry education, my part time attention, I routinely beat the S+P Index 500. Comparable to any Ivy league educated investment guru on Wall Street. Mutual fund managers are forced to tradefor short term gains. Hedge fund managers are paid to take enormous risk. Coin dealers would take there money and laugh all the way to the bank.
Google and read the PDF file called Buffett Paradox by AMI Investments. It mirrors my thoughts on mutual funds and investing in general. Buffett's approach is mind blowing simple if you got the stones... I prefer a lot of little rocks, but I digress.
The key to any investment is to understand the risk. Understand the investment. Coins? Outside of becoming a dealer? No Way!
<< <i> should all be NGC or PCGS graded >>
You can say that, but you know that the majority of these will be NGC.
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Noe. I'd pass.
Speaking of which, shouldn't Noe be out on good behavior by now?
You act like that's a bad thing.
I knew it would happen.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Remember the Jefferson Missing Edge Letter Presidential Dollars. All pruchased by an investment firm and sold via telephone. As much as $7950 for MS67's which today have a price well south of $1,000.
Someone made some money but the "investors" lost their shirts. I'm certain that such a "mutual fund" would suffer from constant Federal Investigations.
The name is LEE!
Hoard the keys.