first of all i think you chose some wrong coins to get a really objective comparison, in particular state quarters and morgan dollars. the irony being that if the first and last examples, quarters and dollars, are given the heave-ho, what we're left with is an almost equal walker-kennedy analysis, which is surprising. those two series' are close to the same in length, though i would have thought the walker's would have cost more and the kennedy's been more readily available in high grade------and i guess i'm wrong on both counts.
the state quarter series is too short to be useful, the morgan's too long and i wonder how the SLQ's would look when compared in full head. perhaps you can do a similar comparison on lincoln cents by splitting the series in half and comparing both. that would be interesting since the entire series is no doubt collected by many people. also, i think any of the barbers would give some interesting results when compared to their related modern series of equal lenght and perhaps you could compare liberty/buffalo nickles to jefferson's in full step since that would give an equal legth of years to look at.
i think with a well constructed study of this nature some surprises would be found for all collectors in general. sometimes i think many of us limit our enjoyment in the hobby by limiting our focus. for me, it's like only listening to one genre of music while holding disdain for all others. for the record, i collect moderns by series and classics by type, my own version of the best of both worlds.
interesting data! Seems to me that Moderns offer much more opportunity to a larger number of collectors to submit coins in hopes of receiving the coveted high MS grade and thus reap more financial profit or bragging rights in the registry race.
The state quarter program has brought in many new collectors who perhaps have different collecting goals as some of the old time collectors.
The market reflects true supply and demand. Prices are high for moderns because demand is there. You study points that out nicely.
Thanks for sharing your analysis with us. I collect mostly classic coins but also collect Franklin Halfs. I would echo FC57's comments regarding his sense of value and I will pass on a coin even if it's a killer where the grade premium is in my opinion extreme. Why? Because my name isn't Gates or Buffet or TradeDollarNut (although I shouldn't assume that just because they are rolling in dough their sense of value would motivate them to pay 100x one point grade premiums).
Each collector has to establish his or her sense of value and I'd venture to say a big part of forming that sense of value is the amount of disposible income you have. Another factor will be the individual's collecting goal. If you've got $2,000 to complete a set of XXX coins the funds available will limit what you can spend for each coin in the set. If you've got $100,000 to complete that set your sense of value might be quite different from the person with a budget limited to $2,000 since you've got more funds available to pay higher one point grade premiums.
All of this is fine if you're buying coins for the simple enjoyment of the hobby. As has been stated many times what someone decides to pay for a coin is their business. I think the really heated debate comes about when questions arise regarding how well these premiums will hold up over time.
Predictions about whether a particular coin will hold it's value is open to debate. These debates get into the area of demand (a major factor in pricing) and we ended up talking about the appeal of particular coins over the long haul.
The analysis by jtryka gives a general view (since precise information isn't available) regarding the premiums being paid, a piece of factual information (with some margin of error) to get an overall view of what the market is doing. What it demonstrate is that in general certain people who are collecting one type of coin are will to pay higher premiums for one or two point grade differences than people collecting other types of coins. To each his own. Each person is free to establish their own sense of value.
But the debate about future appreciate in values for particular coins is a legitimate topic of debate and if future appreciate is something that is important to you (you're not one of those people that has no concern for recouping the money you spent on the hobby) then you'll want to consider the arguments in that debates while forming your sense of value.
Of course all of this debating can be done without flaming each other.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
There's not much in this thread worthy of comment. The truths are hardly groundbreaking and the falsehoods we've all heard before too. It is interesting that a previously respected board member is spending yet another day doing whatever it is that he's doing. There are some points which I'd take issue with but I doubt any of my responses couldn't be anticipated by those who have been around this site awhile and certainly we wouldn't want any new board members to get a look at this one.
Even though it's not entirely fresh, let me try this;
There has been nearly no interest in most of these coins since the day they went into pro- duction. Interest was so miniscule that BU rolls of some denominations are virtually non-ex- istent! The only source for many of these coins was and is the mint sets yet the demand for the mint sets was so tiny that these sold for LESS THAN FACE VALUE FOR NEARLY A DECADE!! Despite the huge spread in quality for the mint set coins there is virtually no evidence that the sets were being cherry picked for high grade coins until relatively recently. (The gems were selling for less than face value for nearly a decade too!!!!) Time, tide, fire, flood, give away prices, promotions, collectors, dealers, and speculators have chipped away at the surviving populations of these sets. There were never more than a few actually available for sale at any given time but it required only a few to totally swamp the demand. Now, not only are there fewer than ever on the market, for the first time there are no longer significant numbers which are available from the original owners if the price is right. These sets have been dispersed in their estates. Mintages of sets have been dropping because there is a tiny demand and those who used to purchase these mostly from habit are gone. There may have been a dozen col- letors in 1975. 100 in 1980, 250 in 1990, 1000 in 2000, and 5000 today.
If the newbies ever become established and sophisticated collectors* then the bulk of them will get to that point through moderns. If prices are where they are today with a few hundred thousand people collecting old coins from circulation and a few tens of millions collecting the new coins from circulation then what will be the result of sufficient numbers to revitalize the ranks of the older series passing through moderns?
*Some of the states quarter collectors are already quite sophisticated and their expertise exceeds mine in this area.
Guess I'll throw this same tired info out again in case there might be a fresh reader out there...
When talking about moderns, the focus is often on the "top pop" "crazy" priced coins. Which might make for more interesting conversation, but, give it a moment's thought and you'll realize: By the very virtue of the low populations of those coins, that's not what 99% of modern collectors collect!
The vast majority of modern collectors find a great deal of challenge and enjoyment putting together a series at a fraction of the cost of most classic series.
And they don't need to worry about "diversifying" their "porfolio" of coins for financial reasons, because even if they lost every cent in their collection they can still pay their bills and retire some day.
I suppose if you're a coin "investor", then you would have to worry about things like that. Of course if that's what you are, putting your money in top-pop moderns a few years ago would have outperformed virtually anything else in the coin market, so unless you rode some of that wave I'm not sure we should heed your advice now.
Obviously, nobody wants to lose a bunch of money they can't afford to lose. But I submit that the easiest way to do that is to simply buy cheaper coins. Like maybe some not-top-pop moderns.
jtryka shared some data he compiled. Nothing to get emotional about there. Some think the results are obvious and maybe they are but I like seeing the numbers behind statements that are made regarding what's suppose to obvious. The numbers at times disprove the obvious or show the shades of gray in something that appears to be black and white.
So let me restate the obvious:
1. At times very high one point grade premiums are paid by collectors. 2. That happens most often and/or higher premiums are more often paid for modern coins.
Cladking's post is an attempt to explain why we see this differences between moderns and classics in jtryka's analysis and then gets into his value assessment of these premiums. That's not what the original post addressed (not directly) but it seems to be a natural offshoot of a discussion of the numbers in the original post.
Any discussion of future valuations is, due to the lack of precise information with respect to the coin industry, the subjective nature of grading, the unpredictable swings in popularity among collectors for certain types of coins, the thin nature of the market in general (relatively small market and driven by discretionary/disposable income) and questionable survival numbers, a matter of wholesale speculation based on a muddy pool of information and subject to endless (as we've seen) debate (how's that for a run-on sentence ).
I know us veterans are tired of the debate but I think having the debate is helpful for new collectors so that they can understanding the reasons for the premiums and use that information in forming their sense of value. Maybe PCGS will create a separate classics/modern debate forum so we vet's don't have to hear the same arguments over and over again .
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
This discussion does come up quite often. The question I would like to pose and have everyone think about is this: If you don't collect a certain series and therefore have no interest in where prices are, why do you care what other collectors pay for a coin, be it modern, classic or modassic. What possible affect does it have on your life, or your collecting habits?
No one appointed me or anyone else our brother's coin keeper. We give ourselves too much credit if we think our comments will stop anyone from spending their money for what they enjoy. Don't you think it's time we quit making comments like stupid money and as long as they can afford to spend? Quite frankly its not your or my business. If someone asks you for your opinon, fine give them the benefit of your widsom. I am a firm believer in life that we learn more from our failures than we do our successes. Let everyone go done this road without resorting to name calling by the bystanders. Enjoy the enthusiasm genertated by collectors, both veteran and rookie.
Ask yourself again, why do I feel the need to criticize the amount of money others spend for coins or what they enjoy collecting.
"If you don't collect a certain series and therefore have no interest in where prices are, why do you care what other collectors pay for a coin, be it modern, classic or modassic."
I don't think it's as much a matter of which coins you collect (I won't pay a 20x grade premium for any coin, classic or modern) but more an attempt to explain the way in which you make your value assessment, and there is no reason why we can't have these discussion in a civil manner. Actually I think the debate really begins to get heated when we move into the area of spectulation on the future appreciation of coins and how that speculation might get factored into someones forming their value assessment of a coin in today's market.
Is there any benefit in retelling this story? Yes, particularly for the constant stream of new collectors entering the hobby who read the speculative discussions (especially those wild stories told on the Registry Set Forum ) regarding the potential of future appreciation of coins and form their value assessment based on those speculations alone.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
There's nothing wrong with paying ridiculous amounts of money for pocket change that has been deemed extra new by someone, if that's what turns you on. However, I do believe that the inherent risk of seriously losing money in the long run is much greater with modern pocket change that boasts subtle differences between extra-shiny or extra-perfect, versus traditional rarity or historical value.
The risk of fad pricing is higher, as well as the relative unimportance of the exact mint state of coins cheaply mass-produced in unbelievable quantities.
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Does new shiny money smell different than old, grimy money?
To me it does. Seriously. One of the reasons I dislike slabs is that it covers the smell of old coins. I find that smell curiously interesting to me, especially the smell on old coppers. Currently, I have no slabbed coppers. Every now and then, I'll pull out my well worn (VG to VF) early large cents and smell them. I am careful not to let them touch my nose by accident...
Once again... I really am serious about smelling coins.
"Does new shiny money smell different than old, grimy money?"
Yes.
"There goes FF bashing Morgans again"
I was really referring to the newer coins, the shiny pocket change in plastic, where exact grade differences are obsessed over, price-inflated, and marketed to unprecedented levels. Beware of high expenditures, please -- on those coins you can't touch or tell the differences between. I'd hate to be some of these modern spenders 5-10 years from now, if that. But what do I know.
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Granted, I'm being a little dramatic here, and putting it on a bit thick, but in all seriousness -- I do believe there has been a modern hype in general that equates to the technology sector of the stock market a few years ago, and that newer collectors should be made extra aware.
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Well, then, FF you are obviously not hip to the latest statistical pricing studies (see first post) showing Morgans to be MORE inflated in high grade than STATE QUARTERS!
Not to mention the newly uncovered disturbing practice of coin-smelling among classic collectors. Eeew.
Sure, go ahead. But, only if you take a bit of time to smell some coins too. Take some circs from various series and time periods and just smell them. Notice the difference amongst the different metal types? I like the smell of early coppers best.
Recently cleaned coins, and those that have been poorly rinsed, smell the worst. Very chemically. Sea hoard coins smell briney. Anyway, give it a smell...
In real estate - it's location, location, location. With coins - It's condition, condition, condition. The thing most old time collectors misunderstand about the new collectors is that they'd rather have an outstanding collection of common coins than a below average collection of uncommon coins. Type collectors are simply graduates of that school of thought. High priced classic coins will be never volume sellers. All of our discussion won't change the outcome. The only thing we can achieve by diminishing the desireability of the moderns is to reduce the number of collectors. Hope it works, guys. I'm not an investor, I'm a collector, and I could use less competetion.
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
"If you don't collect a certain series and therefore have no interest in where prices are, why do you care what other collectors pay for a coin, be it modern, classic or modassic."
Why do I care? Becase as I have said since day one on this message site, if a new collector loses a lot of money on coins, there is a very good chance that he or she will soured on the the hobby forever. New collectors are the future of this hobby, and if we "eat our young" for short term killing, those of us who love this hobby will be the poorer for it.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
<< <i>There's nothing wrong with paying ridiculous amounts of money for pocket change that has been deemed extra new by someone, if that's what turns you on. However, I do believe that the inherent risk of seriously losing money in the long run is much greater with modern pocket change that boasts subtle differences between extra-shiny or extra-perfect, versus traditional rarity or historical value.
The risk of fad pricing is higher, as well as the relative unimportance of the exact mint state of coins cheaply mass-produced in unbelievable quantities. >>
I am certainly pleased not to need your permission to throw my money away. In the past it was always necessary to get some sort of governmental OK before throwing good mon- ey after pocket change. Perhaps it would be easier if all these fool modern collectors just converted their money and coins to currency and burned it. It would save the trouble of trying to chase down hard to find coins, it would save those stuck in the 1960's the agony of having to see coins they detest go up in value, and most importantly it would stop the crooks, hypester, and hustlers from making a quick buck. Obviously encouraging these people might make them stick around the hobby for many years.
I was really referring to the newer coins, the shiny pocket change in plastic, where exact grade differences are obsessed over, price-inflated, and marketed to unprecedented levels. Beware of high expenditures, please -- on those coins you can't touch or tell the differences between. I'd hate to be some of these modern spenders 5-10 years from now, if that. But what do I know. >>
These levels are unprecedented because the coins were completely ignored for more than a third of a century- - which is unprecedented.
Not to mention the newly uncovered disturbing practice of coin-smelling among classic collectors. Eeew. >>
I confess it's not entirely confined to classic collectors. Modern coins lack much odor but the greatest smell there is is the one you get when you smell the inside of a freshly opened yellow pack of 1969 mint sets. It smells rich!!! Really! Try it.
Why do I care? Becase as I have said since day one on this message site, if a new collector loses a lot of money on coins, there is a very good chance that he or she will soured on the the hobby forever. New collectors are the future of this hobby, and if we "eat our young" for short term killing, those of us who love this hobby will be the poorer for it. >>
...And continually telling him his coins are overpriced crap can drive him away immediately.
"I am certainly pleased not to need your permission to throw my money away. In the past it was always necessary to get some sort of governmental OK before throwing good mon- ey after pocket change. Perhaps it would be easier if all these fool modern collectors just converted their money and coins to currency and burned it. It would save the trouble of trying to chase down hard to find coins, it would save those stuck in the 1960's the agony of having to see coins they detest go up in value, and most importantly it would stop the crooks, hypester, and hustlers from making a quick buck. Obviously encouraging these people might make them stick around the hobby for many years."
You have apparently turned my right to post my opinion on modern grade rarity & new collectors into some sort of deranged exaggeration. Regardless of your characterization of whatever it is you have fantasized my words to be, the basic opinion and observation is reasonable, and possibly even true. Your reaction makes me think you can see the truth in it, but are in denial or something. Don't know, it is hard for me to relate -- I don't exaggerate into ridiculous spins.
"And continually telling him his coins are overpriced crap can drive him away immediately."
Hah, that was funny. You obviously have a problem with people expressing their right and even duty to warn others, and then let them decide for themselves. The stock market craze is a good analogy: there were people, like me, who warned all those new/young stock investors buying into the penny and tech stock mania featuring chatroom-style casino action based upon hype. Many of us warned about the overpriced crap. Your reaction is analagous to saying that "continually telling him his stocks are overpriced crap can drive him away immediately." That can always be the excuse used to not warn people -- that type of response is invalid as a sound reason to not express a warning one feels is legitimate and reasonable. The coin collector will collect, and there is nothing wrong with a little education or examination before diving in.
My view is: lay out the facts and the opinions, and then let the market and individual do whatever. But to have such an adverse reaction to opinions or warnings demonstrates more about your fears or self-interest than it does actual concern about the new collector. Just like the new investor should stay away from crap, the new coin collector could only benefit from a few different viewpoints about what is going on with the hobby before they spend their dear money.
You would prefer them to be shielded from my point of view because they might "run away." How stupid.
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Not another bumper sticker, "Save the newbies." I appreciate your right to express your strong opinion. Now, I challenge your intellect. Can you name 5 Moderns you feel are important to collect, and can you name 5 classics that are severely overpriced? Obviously. you don't believe there are no coins minted since 1932 that are worthy of the collector. I'd love to hear which moderns you feel are undervalued, and which classics are too expensive relative to their worth. Isn't that more fun than just repeating "moderns are overvalued"?
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
I've been called a lot worse than stupid. You'll have to try harder. One has a constitutional right to spout all kinds of nonsense but that doesn't lend any profundity to it. One even has a constitu- tional right to make an accurate, to the point, and insightful observation, but the engagement in the repetition of such a statement ad infinitim is not indicative accuracy, timeliness, or intelligence.
Can you really believe that one can't make a compelling case that there is anything collectable that isn't overpriced? It may be patently obvious to you that these coins are overpriced but perhaps you should at the very least try to understand why that is so before you respond to the post. Perhaps if you understood how shiny pocket change got valuable you'll have a better understanding not only of moderns but of your own coins also.
My 2 cents (wait a minute, I like dollars, so it will be my 100 cents) ...
Debates like these are healthy (insulting each other is not) ...
Stats can always be made to show what one wants to represent ...
I have owned more MS67 Morgans (2) than MS67 Clad Ikes (0) ...
Accountants know the price of everything but the value of nothing, so do what makes you happy and don't urinate on anyone's cornflakes that wants to be happy.
I've been called a lot worse than stupid. You'll have to try harder."
I didn't mean to say you were a stupid person, just that the reason you gave not to warn people was stupid. I don't have to try harder, I believe I adequately demonstrated why.
"One has a constitutional right to spout all kinds of nonsense but that doesn't lend any profundity to it. One even has a constitutional right to make an accurate, to the point, and insightful observations, but the engagement in the repetition of such a statement ad infinitim is not indicative accuracy, timeliness, or intelligence."
Well, about the nonsense part, you are right because that is what I felt you posted, like you feel about me. About the repetition/ad infinitim part, I don't feel as though what I wrote qualifies. In either case, your assessment, or your view of what my words indicate is immaterial to the point. The point being, that amongst all the hype, promotion, and excitement for those coins, some balance is good. You can easily avoid this evil torture by using your obvious keen sense of judgement to skip posts and even (gasp) threads.
"Can you really believe that one can't make a compelling case that there is anything collectable isn't overpriced?"
Yes, I believe that everything collectible is not overpriced. What is it with you and this relativism bull. What, no one can warn of something being overpriced because "one can make a compelling case that it may not be" -- what kind of bull is that. You may not be stupid, but you sure are silly. I also believe that whether or not so and so can make a compelling case has no bearing on the need to inform about an industry and those who make money off of it -- from ebay and message board hypesters to corporate influences.
"It may be patently obvious to you that these coins are overpriced but perhaps you should at the very least try to understand why that is so before you respond to the post."
What makes you think I didn't do that or know a lot about them long before this day? It seems you are assuming. Bad.
"Perhaps if you understood how shiny pocket change got valuable you'll have a better understanding not only of moderns but of your own coins also."
Still assuming I don't understand or know enough, versus simply having an opinion different than yours, or one you don't like. Shame shame shame. Listen, I understand how they got valuable -- I probably understand far more than you would like to assume. But the bottom line is, I believe the modern grade-rarity segment has some extra inherent risks compared to other segments. If you don't like that viewpoint, don't just assume I don't know enough or justify keeping it suppressed because it comes up too often for your tastes or because it will "scare collectors away."
That's being too silly, even for you. Good day.
- FF
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Can you name 5 Moderns you feel are important to collect, and can you name 5 classics that are severely overpriced?
I can.
I think the important thing to realize is that in whatever path we choose, there are trouble areas and areas of smoothness. Of the ten above that Don challenges folks to name, with the right kind of education, you can probably turn the good into bad and make the bad seem good.
I think the best way to present this argument, debate, free-for-all or whatever we call this tiresome chatter is to warn newbies that starting slowly with the purchases while learning rapidly about numismatics and the coin industry is probably a good approach.
There are many ways to approach this hobby, to name a few: pursue it as an investment; small # of best one can afford; large number of modest stuff; type, series; grade rarities; total pop rarities; easy display; hide in vault; online registry; slabbed; raw; U.S.; non-U.S.; pocket change; ...
There are so many ways to have fun with this hobby that it ill-behooves us to categorically state what is the ``right'' approach and what is the ``wrong'' approach. If we must deliver a message to newbies, then the message should be on education. I think no one will argue that knowledge is power. Once the newbies learn more, they can then form their own better-educated opinions on what makes them happy.
We are better off teaching them how to fish, instead of constantly fishing for them.
Can I name five modern coins that I think are overpriced?
Frankly, I can't because aside from some varieties, like doubled dies, modern coins exist in sufficient quatities to cover the demands of many collectors. Yes, there are some coins in the ultra grades that could be called condition rarities, but I question just how thick that market is. If I had to raise money, I'd much soon go into a coin show with a box of properly graded attractive classic coins than and box of ultra grade moderns that are supposed to be selling at four-figure prices. History has shown us that a lot of modern issues have not had great staying power as the years have gone by.
Can I name five classic coins that are overpriced?
Yes, I'll name a series. To me the most all of the common date early large cents are overpriced because so many pieces have been pulled off the collector market by die variety and die state collectors. In the long run I don't see a great deal to encourage young collectors to take an interest in the series because the entry prices are so high. Just try and go to a show and find a supply of reasonablely priced nice collector grade (Fine though EF) coins. You would be hard pressed. I've been a collector for since 1960, and I've spent money on coins more over a lifetime that many collectors, yet I could not even consider collecting large cents because of the prices. I can't compete in that market. Let's face it middle grade no problem common Sheldon varieties of 1802 and 1803 large cents are not rare, but you would never know it from the prices.
And yes, if you think of Morgan Dollars as classic they can be overpriced at various times. Just ask anyone who has dabbled in MS-65 graded common dates over the past five or six years. Chances are they have caught at least a time or two when the prices yo-yo ed between $50 and $100. And yes I think some of those who have spent huge money on toned Morgan Dollars might be sorry one day also.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
Yes, we all could have picked out conservative stocks (traditional coins) that were overpriced, and found tech/penny stocks (modern plastic) that were important to keep. However, we are generalizing here about certain aspects or segments, and educating about the joys of collecting as well as the hazards. Talking about exceptions is meaningless when trying to convey what segments/coins seem to be reasonable, or a good deal, and which ones seem to be wearing large red flags.
Hey man, collect what you want -- but do realize that money is tied to this hobby in more than just one way so it will always be a serious consideration and component worthy of examination, needing warning, or the reason to grab up a good deal!
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Foundingfather: You misunderstood. It was my silly fault though since a word got left out even in my silly edit. A case can be made that every single collectable is over- priced. A brand new Beanie Baby selling for thousands is silly because it's only real purpose is as a toy and no child can possibly get that much use out of it. A colonial coin has no value whatsoever anymore unless it contains silver. Why should such junk be collected? Wouldn't it be more productive to melt the silly things down and make something useful. ...and the copper isn't even worth the energy to melt it! How would such a message sit with the many dedicated collectors of this material. What if it were repeated many times? What of those who study and love these coins. What of those with a financial interest in them.
You may well have the right to blast moderns at every opportunity and you may even really believe you are doing good, just remember others have a right to spout and slam and even if they don't exercise it, there is no collectable immune to such attack.
Correction; The silly quote was taken before my silly edit.
EVP has it exactly right. Warning newbies about hype and hucksterism is certainly on the list of things we should be telling them. And anything that goes up sharply is always in danger of falling sharply. The only point I'd add is that newbies should try to sell a coin once in a while so he knows the true state of the market.
Again the argument against moderns is focusing on the crazy-priced "top pop" coins which is irrelevant for the vast majority of modern collectors. And those crazy premiums exist in abundance in the classic series as well. Maybe not on the same percentage level, but actually far HIGHER in terms of absolute dollars that can be lost by a 1-point difference.
And if you want an area where a new collector can actually have a chance at MAKING some money, moderns are hard to beat. It is far easier to cherrypick a valuable modern than a classic, because most dealers still have the attitude that moderns are junk.
In fact you can make a pretty good argument that a modern collection is the BEST thing a new collector could get into, if you can stop worrying for a minute about that 1% who are collecting top-pops for thousands of dollars.
And that 1% are getting along quite nicely in life without your help, thank you, as evidenced by their ability to "waste" thousands of dollars.
<The only point I'd add is that newbies should try to sell a coin once in a while so he knows the true state of the market. >
I'll drink to that. Trying sell a coin at the bourse can be an eye opening experience for collectors who have never done it. It can get discouraging. Heck setting up at a show as a dealer can be pretty humbling too. I've never set up at a show and sold NOTHING, but I have come close.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
And that 1% are getting along quite nicely in life without your help, thank you, as evidenced by their ability to "waste" thousands of dollars. >>
They are not only wasting thousands of dollars but they have been making obscene profits. These are the guys who really need the warnings. They must be saved from themselves! What could possibly make them want to get such huge returns. And the rest of we silly modern collectors have to content ourselves with having a blast while we're doubling our money every eighteen months. Life just isn't fair. Oh well, cherry picking is fun too.
First recommendation would be to a dealer so the folks can hear: - I think I see a fingerprint on this, sorry - I do not specialize in this series, sorry - I had a few of these and could not sell them for many months, sorry - its too low a grade for me to sell, sorry - its too high a grade for me to sell, sorry - the best I can do is a little less than wholesale (now this answer can be the second part of the statement to either of the items above).
After they see how they can lose 20 to 35% between drooling retail prices and sub-wholesale prices, they will be a little more cautious.
Second recommendation would be eBay or anywhere else where liquidity principles are also proven.
Justify and exaggerate what you want, I stand behind my observations and feelings that there are inhernet risks and levels of deception within the condition-rare modern corporate-plastic industry that are higher than the other coin-collecting segments. The internet has fueled much of it, as you all know. I have seen this hype marketing start long ago, with people/sellers making all sorts of excuses and technical rationales. Usually it is the people who sell and make money off these coins that make such extremely silly or desperate explanations -- or more specifically, the denial of these extra-risky "fundamentals."
I think this hobby is great, and it is great to collect what you want. However, there have also been a lot of people make a lot of money off of hype and taking advantage of the newer collector who has bought into it. That's fine, because that is how a free market works. A free society also works by allowing experienced observers of people, markets, money, and coins comment on gigantic waves of hype that feed into the basic needs of the collector-nut (which we all are), like registry sets, nicely labeled plastic, comparisons of details, caring about what is new, etc. My basic feelings are similar to those of the tech/penny stock explosion, which share a lot of the same traits as this modern coin market. While warnings went on, there was no stopping the buying -- although some people took up defenses in time.
People not unlike Cladking were complaining about people like me, only instead of penny and tech stocks, now I hear the same excuses about paying lots of money for subtle differences in modern mass-produced coinage.
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Billjones; You've proved in the last few weeks that you do know something about moderns. I once stated I knew far more about cassics than you do about moderns, but this was quite possibly inaccurate.
Possibly though you can't name five overpriced moderns simply because you don't know these markets. I would never (normally) ever seriously name any coin I consider overpriced, but would have absolutely no difficulty naming some moderns that are likely to come down in price. Just saying all the regular issue moderns are in sufficient supply to cover the demands of large num- bers of collectors is highly inaccurate. Coins don't survive the ravages of time because they are made in large numbers, they survive because someone sets them aside for the future. While many of the coins you enjoy today were set aside by someone who wanted precious metal as a store of value or by someone who just enjoyed collecting the coins, neither of these apply to the coins of the past 37 years. Who do you know who set some aside? You are in the very heart of the hobby and business and I'd wager you know no more than a handful who have set aside more coins than what they themselves have in their collection. And I bet you can think of a couple dozen who have a collection!
Cladking, back to the doubling every 18 months. How long was that to being a millionaire again? Sounds like a sound market. I know people who made millions (even hundreds of millions) in tech stocks. Heck, Mark Cuban bought the Dallas Maverick's with his "tech" stock money. Wonder why he thought he needed to sell it.
Are you saying these things are going to continue to double in value every 18 months forever? You can never lose any money on any of them (it was said on the other forum)? I do not read many telling people to not collect them, just know the risks. If you know the risks, then they are not talking of you. I also want to know how the entire coin collecting hobby is hinged on high priced moderns. I think that the comment that 99% of the people do not collect these high end coins, and these are the future collectors of the hobby, not the 1% you seem so animate about defending.
Supercoin in right, many classics have an even bigger risk with the jump in prices for a one point jump. Of course, I have read in any of these threads where people should be getting into these coins either. It just seems very few people on these boards are into these coins, and no one is talking about selling them.
About selling them, and interesting thread about that was given on the other forum where a collector did just that and did not receive the money that the dealer on that board said they were worth. Of course, the dealer had many reasons for this, and it turns out the collector did not know what he was doing selling them and that is why they went for so much less than they should of.
Collector and Researcher of Liberty Head Nickels. ANA LM-6053
Are you saying these things are going to continue to double in value every 18 months forever? You can never lose any money on any of them (it was said on the other forum)? I do not read many telling people to not collect them, just know the risks. If you know the risks, then they are not talking of you. I also want to know how the entire coin collecting hobby is hinged on high priced moderns. I think that the comment that 99% of the people do not collect these high end coins, and these are the future collectors of the hobby, not the 1% you seem so animate about defending. >>
No. These coins will not increase indefinitely at this pace. A soft landing would be if this rate of increase were to slowly level off to a more sustainable level and a hard landing would be a sudden retrenchment in prices. It will be some time in all probability before it is known how this will occur. It will not happen until the demand for these coins quits growing. It appears that the demand is just entering the steep portion at the bottom of a geometric curve. The height of this curve is dependent on the "collectability" of the coins and the degree of interest among the newbies and the to be newbies. Demand would probably have to increase about twenty fold from these levels to assure a new generation of collectors. Two thousand fold should be the upper limit on demand growth. This is not in reference to pop tops. You may not believe this but pop tops are not easy to find. Despite many years of looking I have very few because they are not easy to find. Do I have a financial stake in pop tops? Probably not at the current pricing levels. If they got far higher then yes.
I like the pop tops as a collector and if I could afford them I'd be all over them.
"For every example of hype FoundingFather can find, I can find twenty slams, digs, insults, and warnings."
Yet another great reason we should suppress the warnings. I had no idea that what you could find should influence people expressing what they deem as reasonable assessments.
I stand by what I have said and my reasons for them, so, good luck.
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Actually I enjoy the digs and slams. Any newbie reading them will quickly get an idea of the depth of the hatred for these coins and historically the items which do best are the ones hated the most. On this basis the worn out '66 quarter in your pocket should already be worth a million dollars.
What a great thread! An outstanding display of typing and cutting and pasting by all concerned!
Just a couple of points of clarification:
Don't all collectors smell their raw coins? I certainly do. The metals smell different and you can detect signs of cleaning or other tampering.
I may be confused here, but I though Founding Father liked Morgans (in a general, non-personal kind of way)?
Finally, why would anyone buy an uncirculated coin? (modern or classic - other than a proof or pattern, that is) Coins are supposed to circulate, not sit in a bag in a dark vault for a hundred years!
Paying a premium for an uncirculated coin, be it an MS-62 or an MS-69 is just plain silly!
(This, of course, is the classic "a pox on both your houses" flame.)
Werent classics moderns at one time? I thought back in the late 1800's a morgan dollar could only be called modern and not a classic.
Point is... eventually, today's moderns will be classics too (although they still may be called something else "post-classic, pre statehood or something like that) and there will be newer moderns.. maybe the new Jefferson's or if they change the designs in 2009, Washington or Lincolns may be extinct too.
Collect what you want!! Time will tell from an investment standpoint whether you made out or not. I bet in the end you'll win some and lose some.. But whatever you do, have fun along the way!!
Comments
first of all i think you chose some wrong coins to get a really objective comparison, in particular state quarters and morgan dollars. the irony being that if the first and last examples, quarters and dollars, are given the heave-ho, what we're left with is an almost equal walker-kennedy analysis, which is surprising. those two series' are close to the same in length, though i would have thought the walker's would have cost more and the kennedy's been more readily available in high grade------and i guess i'm wrong on both counts.
the state quarter series is too short to be useful, the morgan's too long and i wonder how the SLQ's would look when compared in full head. perhaps you can do a similar comparison on lincoln cents by splitting the series in half and comparing both. that would be interesting since the entire series is no doubt collected by many people. also, i think any of the barbers would give some interesting results when compared to their related modern series of equal lenght and perhaps you could compare liberty/buffalo nickles to jefferson's in full step since that would give an equal legth of years to look at.
i think with a well constructed study of this nature some surprises would be found for all collectors in general. sometimes i think many of us limit our enjoyment in the hobby by limiting our focus. for me, it's like only listening to one genre of music while holding disdain for all others. for the record, i collect moderns by series and classics by type, my own version of the best of both worlds.
al h.
<< <i>for me, it's like only listening to one genre of music while holding disdain for all others. >>
You mean there is something else besides Doo Wop?????? Gasp!
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
al h.
The state quarter program has brought in many new collectors who perhaps have different collecting goals as some of the old time collectors.
The market reflects true supply and demand. Prices are high for moderns because demand is there. You study points that out nicely.
Well done.
Tyler
Thanks for sharing your analysis with us. I collect mostly classic coins but also collect Franklin Halfs. I would echo FC57's comments regarding his sense of value and I will pass on a coin even if it's a killer where the grade premium is in my opinion extreme. Why? Because my name isn't Gates or Buffet or TradeDollarNut
Each collector has to establish his or her sense of value and I'd venture to say a big part of forming that sense of value is the amount of disposible income you have. Another factor will be the individual's collecting goal. If you've got $2,000 to complete a set of XXX coins the funds available will limit what you can spend for each coin in the set. If you've got $100,000 to complete that set your sense of value might be quite different from the person with a budget limited to $2,000 since you've got more funds available to pay higher one point grade premiums.
All of this is fine if you're buying coins for the simple enjoyment of the hobby. As has been stated many times what someone decides to pay for a coin is their business. I think the really heated debate comes about when questions arise regarding how well these premiums will hold up over time.
Predictions about whether a particular coin will hold it's value is open to debate. These debates get into the area of demand (a major factor in pricing) and we ended up talking about the appeal of particular coins over the long haul.
The analysis by jtryka gives a general view (since precise information isn't available) regarding the premiums being paid, a piece of factual information (with some margin of error) to get an overall view of what the market is doing. What it demonstrate is that in general certain people who are collecting one type of coin are will to pay higher premiums for one or two point grade differences than people collecting other types of coins. To each his own. Each person is free to establish their own sense of value.
But the debate about future appreciate in values for particular coins is a legitimate topic of debate and if future appreciate is something that is important to you (you're not one of those people that has no concern for recouping the money you spent on the hobby) then you'll want to consider the arguments in that debates while forming your sense of value.
Of course all of this debating can be done without flaming each other.
and the falsehoods we've all heard before too. It is interesting that a previously respected
board member is spending yet another day doing whatever it is that he's doing. There are
some points which I'd take issue with but I doubt any of my responses couldn't be anticipated
by those who have been around this site awhile and certainly we wouldn't want any new
board members to get a look at this one.
Even though it's not entirely fresh, let me try this;
There has been nearly no interest in most of these coins since the day they went into pro-
duction. Interest was so miniscule that BU rolls of some denominations are virtually non-ex-
istent! The only source for many of these coins was and is the mint sets yet the demand for
the mint sets was so tiny that these sold for LESS THAN FACE VALUE FOR NEARLY A DECADE!!
Despite the huge spread in quality for the mint set coins there is virtually no evidence that the
sets were being cherry picked for high grade coins until relatively recently. (The gems were
selling for less than face value for nearly a decade too!!!!) Time, tide, fire, flood, give away
prices, promotions, collectors, dealers, and speculators have chipped away at the surviving
populations of these sets. There were never more than a few actually available for sale at any
given time but it required only a few to totally swamp the demand. Now, not only are there
fewer than ever on the market, for the first time there are no longer significant numbers which
are available from the original owners if the price is right. These sets have been dispersed in
their estates. Mintages of sets have been dropping because there is a tiny demand and those
who used to purchase these mostly from habit are gone. There may have been a dozen col-
letors in 1975. 100 in 1980, 250 in 1990, 1000 in 2000, and 5000 today.
If the newbies ever become established and sophisticated collectors* then the bulk of them will
get to that point through moderns. If prices are where they are today with a few hundred
thousand people collecting old coins from circulation and a few tens of millions collecting the
new coins from circulation then what will be the result of sufficient numbers to revitalize the
ranks of the older series passing through moderns?
*Some of the states quarter collectors are already quite sophisticated and their expertise exceeds
mine in this area.
When talking about moderns, the focus is often on the "top pop" "crazy" priced coins. Which might make for more interesting conversation, but, give it a moment's thought and you'll realize: By the very virtue of the low populations of those coins, that's not what 99% of modern collectors collect!
The vast majority of modern collectors find a great deal of challenge and enjoyment putting together a series at a fraction of the cost of most classic series.
And they don't need to worry about "diversifying" their "porfolio" of coins for financial reasons, because even if they lost every cent in their collection they can still pay their bills and retire some day.
I suppose if you're a coin "investor", then you would have to worry about things like that. Of course if that's what you are, putting your money in top-pop moderns a few years ago would have outperformed virtually anything else in the coin market, so unless you rode some of that wave I'm not sure we should heed your advice now.
Obviously, nobody wants to lose a bunch of money they can't afford to lose. But I submit that the easiest way to do that is to simply buy cheaper coins. Like maybe some not-top-pop moderns.
So let me restate the obvious:
1. At times very high one point grade premiums are paid by collectors.
2. That happens most often and/or higher premiums are more often paid for modern coins.
Cladking's post is an attempt to explain why we see this differences between moderns and classics in jtryka's analysis and then gets into his value assessment of these premiums. That's not what the original post addressed (not directly) but it seems to be a natural offshoot of a discussion of the numbers in the original post.
Any discussion of future valuations is, due to the lack of precise information with respect to the coin industry, the subjective nature of grading, the unpredictable swings in popularity among collectors for certain types of coins, the thin nature of the market in general (relatively small market and driven by discretionary/disposable income) and questionable survival numbers, a matter of wholesale speculation based on a muddy pool of information and subject to endless (as we've seen) debate (how's that for a run-on sentence
I know us veterans are tired of the debate but I think having the debate is helpful for new collectors so that they can understanding the reasons for the premiums and use that information in forming their sense of value. Maybe PCGS will create a separate classics/modern debate forum so we vet's don't have to hear the same arguments over and over again
No one appointed me or anyone else our brother's coin keeper. We give ourselves too much credit if we think our comments will stop anyone from spending their money for what they enjoy. Don't you think it's time we quit making comments like stupid money and as long as they can afford to spend? Quite frankly its not your or my business. If someone asks you for your opinon, fine give them the benefit of your widsom. I am a firm believer in life that we learn more from our failures than we do our successes. Let everyone go done this road without resorting to name calling by the bystanders. Enjoy the enthusiasm genertated by collectors, both veteran and rookie.
Ask yourself again, why do I feel the need to criticize the amount of money others spend for coins or what they enjoy collecting.
"If you don't collect a certain series and therefore have no interest in where prices are, why do you care what other collectors pay for a coin, be it modern, classic or modassic."
I don't think it's as much a matter of which coins you collect (I won't pay a 20x grade premium for any coin, classic or modern) but more an attempt to explain the way in which you make your value assessment, and there is no reason why we can't have these discussion in a civil manner. Actually I think the debate really begins to get heated when we move into the area of spectulation on the future appreciation of coins and how that speculation might get factored into someones forming their value assessment of a coin in today's market.
Is there any benefit in retelling this story? Yes, particularly for the constant stream of new collectors entering the hobby who read the speculative discussions (especially those wild stories told on the Registry Set Forum
The risk of fad pricing is higher, as well as the relative unimportance of the exact mint state of coins cheaply mass-produced in unbelievable quantities.
Does new shiny money smell different than old, grimy money?
Clankeye
To me it does. Seriously. One of the reasons I dislike slabs is that it covers the smell of old coins. I find that smell curiously interesting to me, especially the smell on old coppers. Currently, I have no slabbed coppers. Every now and then, I'll pull out my well worn (VG to VF) early large cents and smell them. I am careful not to let them touch my nose by accident...
Once again... I really am serious about smelling coins.
EVP
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
Yes.
"There goes FF bashing Morgans again"
I was really referring to the newer coins, the shiny pocket change in plastic, where exact grade differences are obsessed over, price-inflated, and marketed to unprecedented levels. Beware of high expenditures, please -- on those coins you can't touch or tell the differences between. I'd hate to be some of these modern spenders 5-10 years from now, if that. But what do I know.
<< <i>Once again... I really am serious about smelling coins >>
EVP, can I use this as my sig line? I think that is the best line of the year. I love it. And I'm being serious, I am not making light of your post.
Clankeye
Not to mention the newly uncovered disturbing practice of coin-smelling among classic collectors. Eeew.
Recently cleaned coins, and those that have been poorly rinsed, smell the worst. Very chemically. Sea hoard coins smell briney. Anyway, give it a smell...
EVP
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeewww.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Why do I care? Becase as I have said since day one on this message site, if a new collector loses a lot of money on coins, there is a very good chance that he or she will soured on the the hobby forever. New collectors are the future of this hobby, and if we "eat our young" for short term killing, those of us who love this hobby will be the poorer for it.
<< <i>There's nothing wrong with paying ridiculous amounts of money for pocket change that has been deemed extra new by someone, if that's what turns you on. However, I do believe that the inherent risk of seriously losing money in the long run is much greater with modern pocket change that boasts subtle differences between extra-shiny or extra-perfect, versus traditional rarity or historical value.
The risk of fad pricing is higher, as well as the relative unimportance of the exact mint state of coins cheaply mass-produced in unbelievable quantities. >>
I am certainly pleased not to need your permission to throw my money away. In the past
it was always necessary to get some sort of governmental OK before throwing good mon-
ey after pocket change. Perhaps it would be easier if all these fool modern collectors just
converted their money and coins to currency and burned it. It would save the trouble of
trying to chase down hard to find coins, it would save those stuck in the 1960's the agony
of having to see coins they detest go up in value, and most importantly it would stop the
crooks, hypester, and hustlers from making a quick buck. Obviously encouraging these people
might make them stick around the hobby for many years.
<< <i>
I was really referring to the newer coins, the shiny pocket change in plastic, where exact grade differences are obsessed over, price-inflated, and marketed to unprecedented levels. Beware of high expenditures, please -- on those coins you can't touch or tell the differences between. I'd hate to be some of these modern spenders 5-10 years from now, if that. But what do I know. >>
These levels are unprecedented because the coins were completely ignored for
more than a third of a century- - which is unprecedented.
<< <i>
Not to mention the newly uncovered disturbing practice of coin-smelling among classic collectors. Eeew. >>
I confess it's not entirely confined to classic collectors.
Modern coins lack much odor but the greatest smell there
is is the one you get when you smell the inside of a freshly
opened yellow pack of 1969 mint sets. It smells rich!!!
Really! Try it.
<< <i>
Why do I care? Becase as I have said since day one on this message site, if a new collector loses a lot of money on coins, there is a very good chance that he or she will soured on the the hobby forever. New collectors are the future of this hobby, and if we "eat our young" for short term killing, those of us who love this hobby will be the poorer for it. >>
...And continually telling him his coins are overpriced crap can drive him away immediately.
it was always necessary to get some sort of governmental OK before throwing good mon-
ey after pocket change. Perhaps it would be easier if all these fool modern collectors just
converted their money and coins to currency and burned it. It would save the trouble of
trying to chase down hard to find coins, it would save those stuck in the 1960's the agony
of having to see coins they detest go up in value, and most importantly it would stop the
crooks, hypester, and hustlers from making a quick buck. Obviously encouraging these people
might make them stick around the hobby for many years."
You have apparently turned my right to post my opinion on modern grade rarity & new collectors into some sort of deranged exaggeration. Regardless of your characterization of whatever it is you have fantasized my words to be, the basic opinion and observation is reasonable, and possibly even true. Your reaction makes me think you can see the truth in it, but are in denial or something. Don't know, it is hard for me to relate -- I don't exaggerate into ridiculous spins.
"And continually telling him his coins are overpriced crap can drive him away immediately."
Hah, that was funny. You obviously have a problem with people expressing their right and even duty to warn others, and then let them decide for themselves. The stock market craze is a good analogy: there were people, like me, who warned all those new/young stock investors buying into the penny and tech stock mania featuring chatroom-style casino action based upon hype. Many of us warned about the overpriced crap. Your reaction is analagous to saying that "continually telling him his stocks are overpriced crap can drive him away immediately." That can always be the excuse used to not warn people -- that type of response is invalid as a sound reason to not express a warning one feels is legitimate and reasonable. The coin collector will collect, and there is nothing wrong with a little education or examination before diving in.
My view is: lay out the facts and the opinions, and then let the market and individual do whatever. But to have such an adverse reaction to opinions or warnings demonstrates more about your fears or self-interest than it does actual concern about the new collector. Just like the new investor should stay away from crap, the new coin collector could only benefit from a few different viewpoints about what is going on with the hobby before they spend their dear money.
You would prefer them to be shielded from my point of view because they might "run away." How stupid.
Not another bumper sticker, "Save the newbies."
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
to spout all kinds of nonsense but that doesn't lend any profundity to it. One even has a constitu-
tional right to make an accurate, to the point, and insightful observation, but the engagement in
the repetition of such a statement ad infinitim is not indicative accuracy, timeliness, or intelligence.
Can you really believe that one can't make a compelling case that there is anything collectable that isn't
overpriced? It may be patently obvious to you that these coins are overpriced but perhaps you
should at the very least try to understand why that is so before you respond to the post. Perhaps
if you understood how shiny pocket change got valuable you'll have a better understanding not only
of moderns but of your own coins also.
grammar
Debates like these are healthy (insulting each other is not) ...
Stats can always be made to show what one wants to represent ...
I have owned more MS67 Morgans (2) than MS67 Clad Ikes (0) ...
Accountants know the price of everything but the value of nothing, so do what makes you happy and don't urinate on anyone's cornflakes that wants to be happy.
I love Ike dollars and all other dollar series !!!
I also love Major Circulation Strike Type Sets, clad Washingtons ('65 to '98) and key date coins !!!!!
If ignorance is bliss, shouldn't we have more happy people ??
I didn't mean to say you were a stupid person, just that the reason you gave not to warn people was stupid. I don't have to try harder, I believe I adequately demonstrated why.
"One has a constitutional right to spout all kinds of nonsense but that doesn't lend any profundity to it. One even has a constitutional right to make an accurate, to the point, and insightful observations, but the engagement in the repetition of such a statement ad infinitim is not indicative accuracy, timeliness, or intelligence."
Well, about the nonsense part, you are right because that is what I felt you posted, like you feel about me. About the repetition/ad infinitim part, I don't feel as though what I wrote qualifies. In either case, your assessment, or your view of what my words indicate is immaterial to the point. The point being, that amongst all the hype, promotion, and excitement for those coins, some balance is good. You can easily avoid this evil torture by using your obvious keen sense of judgement to skip posts and even (gasp) threads.
"Can you really believe that one can't make a compelling case that there is anything collectable isn't
overpriced?"
Yes, I believe that everything collectible is not overpriced. What is it with you and this relativism bull. What, no one can warn of something being overpriced because "one can make a compelling case that it may not be" -- what kind of bull is that. You may not be stupid, but you sure are silly. I also believe that whether or not so and so can make a compelling case has no bearing on the need to inform about an industry and those who make money off of it -- from ebay and message board hypesters to corporate influences.
"It may be patently obvious to you that these coins are overpriced but perhaps you
should at the very least try to understand why that is so before you respond to the post."
What makes you think I didn't do that or know a lot about them long before this day? It seems you are assuming. Bad.
"Perhaps if you understood how shiny pocket change got valuable you'll have a better understanding not only of moderns but of your own coins also."
Still assuming I don't understand or know enough, versus simply having an opinion different than yours, or one you don't like. Shame shame shame. Listen, I understand how they got valuable -- I probably understand far more than you would like to assume. But the bottom line is, I believe the modern grade-rarity segment has some extra inherent risks compared to other segments. If you don't like that viewpoint, don't just assume I don't know enough or justify keeping it suppressed because it comes up too often for your tastes or because it will "scare collectors away."
That's being too silly, even for you. Good day.
- FF
I can.
I think the important thing to realize is that in whatever path we choose, there are trouble areas and areas of smoothness. Of the ten above that Don challenges folks to name, with the right kind of education, you can probably turn the good into bad and make the bad seem good.
I think the best way to present this argument, debate, free-for-all or whatever we call this tiresome chatter is to warn newbies that starting slowly with the purchases while learning rapidly about numismatics and the coin industry is probably a good approach.
There are many ways to approach this hobby, to name a few: pursue it as an investment; small # of best one can afford; large number of modest stuff; type, series; grade rarities; total pop rarities; easy display; hide in vault; online registry; slabbed; raw; U.S.; non-U.S.; pocket change; ...
There are so many ways to have fun with this hobby that it ill-behooves us to categorically state what is the ``right'' approach and what is the ``wrong'' approach. If we must deliver a message to newbies, then the message should be on education. I think no one will argue that knowledge is power. Once the newbies learn more, they can then form their own better-educated opinions on what makes them happy.
We are better off teaching them how to fish, instead of constantly fishing for them.
EVP
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
Frankly, I can't because aside from some varieties, like doubled dies, modern coins exist in sufficient quatities to cover the demands of many collectors. Yes, there are some coins in the ultra grades that could be called condition rarities, but I question just how thick that market is. If I had to raise money, I'd much soon go into a coin show with a box of properly graded attractive classic coins than and box of ultra grade moderns that are supposed to be selling at four-figure prices. History has shown us that a lot of modern issues have not had great staying power as the years have gone by.
Can I name five classic coins that are overpriced?
Yes, I'll name a series. To me the most all of the common date early large cents are overpriced because so many pieces have been pulled off the collector market by die variety and die state collectors. In the long run I don't see a great deal to encourage young collectors to take an interest in the series because the entry prices are so high. Just try and go to a show and find a supply of reasonablely priced nice collector grade (Fine though EF) coins. You would be hard pressed. I've been a collector for since 1960, and I've spent money on coins more over a lifetime that many collectors, yet I could not even consider collecting large cents because of the prices. I can't compete in that market. Let's face it middle grade no problem common Sheldon varieties of 1802 and 1803 large cents are not rare, but you would never know it from the prices.
And yes, if you think of Morgan Dollars as classic they can be overpriced at various times. Just ask anyone who has dabbled in MS-65 graded common dates over the past five or six years. Chances are they have caught at least a time or two when the prices yo-yo ed between $50 and $100. And yes I think some of those who have spent huge money on toned Morgan Dollars might be sorry one day also.
Hey man, collect what you want -- but do realize that money is tied to this hobby in more than just one way so it will always be a serious consideration and component worthy of examination, needing warning, or the reason to grab up a good deal!
left out even in my silly edit. A case can be made that every single collectable is over-
priced. A brand new Beanie Baby selling for thousands is silly because it's only real
purpose is as a toy and no child can possibly get that much use out of it. A colonial
coin has no value whatsoever anymore unless it contains silver. Why should such
junk be collected? Wouldn't it be more productive to melt the silly things down and
make something useful. ...and the copper isn't even worth the energy to melt it! How
would such a message sit with the many dedicated collectors of this material. What if
it were repeated many times? What of those who study and love these coins. What
of those with a financial interest in them.
You may well have the right to blast moderns at every opportunity and you may even
really believe you are doing good, just remember others have a right to spout and slam
and even if they don't exercise it, there is no collectable immune to such attack.
Correction; The silly quote was taken before my silly edit.
EVP has it exactly right. Warning newbies about hype and hucksterism is certainly on the
list of things we should be telling them. And anything that goes up sharply is always in
danger of falling sharply. The only point I'd add is that newbies should try to sell a coin
once in a while so he knows the true state of the market.
And if you want an area where a new collector can actually have a chance at MAKING some money, moderns are hard to beat. It is far easier to cherrypick a valuable modern than a classic, because most dealers still have the attitude that moderns are junk.
In fact you can make a pretty good argument that a modern collection is the BEST thing a new collector could get into, if you can stop worrying for a minute about that 1% who are collecting top-pops for thousands of dollars.
And that 1% are getting along quite nicely in life without your help, thank you, as evidenced by their ability to "waste" thousands of dollars.
I'll drink to that. Trying sell a coin at the bourse can be an eye opening experience for collectors who have never done it. It can get discouraging. Heck setting up at a show as a dealer can be pretty humbling too. I've never set up at a show and sold NOTHING, but I have come close.
<< <i>
And that 1% are getting along quite nicely in life without your help, thank you, as evidenced by their ability to "waste" thousands of dollars.
They are not only wasting thousands of dollars but they have been making obscene profits.
These are the guys who really need the warnings. They must be saved from themselves!
What could possibly make them want to get such huge returns. And the rest of we silly
modern collectors have to content ourselves with having a blast while we're doubling our
money every eighteen months. Life just isn't fair. Oh well, cherry picking is fun too.
First recommendation would be to a dealer so the folks can hear:
- I think I see a fingerprint on this, sorry
- I do not specialize in this series, sorry
- I had a few of these and could not sell them for many months, sorry
- its too low a grade for me to sell, sorry
- its too high a grade for me to sell, sorry
- the best I can do is a little less than wholesale (now this answer can be the second part of the statement to either of the items above).
After they see how they can lose 20 to 35% between drooling retail prices and sub-wholesale prices, they will be a little more cautious.
Second recommendation would be eBay or anywhere else where liquidity principles are also proven.
I love Ike dollars and all other dollar series !!!
I also love Major Circulation Strike Type Sets, clad Washingtons ('65 to '98) and key date coins !!!!!
If ignorance is bliss, shouldn't we have more happy people ??
I think this hobby is great, and it is great to collect what you want. However, there have also been a lot of people make a lot of money off of hype and taking advantage of the newer collector who has bought into it. That's fine, because that is how a free market works. A free society also works by allowing experienced observers of people, markets, money, and coins comment on gigantic waves of hype that feed into the basic needs of the collector-nut (which we all are), like registry sets, nicely labeled plastic, comparisons of details, caring about what is new, etc. My basic feelings are similar to those of the tech/penny stock explosion, which share a lot of the same traits as this modern coin market. While warnings went on, there was no stopping the buying -- although some people took up defenses in time.
People not unlike Cladking were complaining about people like me, only instead of penny and tech stocks, now I hear the same excuses about paying lots of money for subtle differences in modern mass-produced coinage.
I once stated I knew far more about cassics than you do about moderns, but this was quite
possibly inaccurate.
Possibly though you can't name five overpriced moderns simply because you don't know these
markets. I would never (normally) ever seriously name any coin I consider overpriced, but would
have absolutely no difficulty naming some moderns that are likely to come down in price. Just
saying all the regular issue moderns are in sufficient supply to cover the demands of large num-
bers of collectors is highly inaccurate. Coins don't survive the ravages of time because they are
made in large numbers, they survive because someone sets them aside for the future. While many
of the coins you enjoy today were set aside by someone who wanted precious metal as a store of
value or by someone who just enjoyed collecting the coins, neither of these apply to the coins of
the past 37 years. Who do you know who set some aside? You are in the very heart of the hobby
and business and I'd wager you know no more than a handful who have set aside more coins than
what they themselves have in their collection. And I bet you can think of a couple dozen who have
a collection!
Are you saying these things are going to continue to double in value every 18 months forever? You can never lose any money on any of them (it was said on the other forum)? I do not read many telling people to not collect them, just know the risks. If you know the risks, then they are not talking of you. I also want to know how the entire coin collecting hobby is hinged on high priced moderns. I think that the comment that 99% of the people do not collect these high end coins, and these are the future collectors of the hobby, not the 1% you seem so animate about defending.
Supercoin in right, many classics have an even bigger risk with the jump in prices for a one point jump. Of course, I have read in any of these threads where people should be getting into these coins either. It just seems very few people on these boards are into these coins, and no one is talking about selling them.
About selling them, and interesting thread about that was given on the other forum where a collector did just that and did not receive the money that the dealer on that board said they were worth. Of course, the dealer had many reasons for this, and it turns out the collector did not know what he was doing selling them and that is why they went for so much less than they should of.
digs, insults, and warnings.
<< <i>
Are you saying these things are going to continue to double in value every 18 months forever? You can never lose any money on any of them (it was said on the other forum)? I do not read many telling people to not collect them, just know the risks. If you know the risks, then they are not talking of you. I also want to know how the entire coin collecting hobby is hinged on high priced moderns. I think that the comment that 99% of the people do not collect these high end coins, and these are the future collectors of the hobby, not the 1% you seem so animate about defending. >>
No. These coins will not increase indefinitely at this pace. A soft landing would be if this rate
of increase were to slowly level off to a more sustainable level and a hard landing would be a
sudden retrenchment in prices. It will be some time in all probability before it is known how
this will occur. It will not happen until the demand for these coins quits growing. It appears
that the demand is just entering the steep portion at the bottom of a geometric curve. The
height of this curve is dependent on the "collectability" of the coins and the degree of interest
among the newbies and the to be newbies. Demand would probably have to increase about
twenty fold from these levels to assure a new generation of collectors. Two thousand fold
should be the upper limit on demand growth. This is not in reference to pop tops. You may not
believe this but pop tops are not easy to find. Despite many years of looking I have very few
because they are not easy to find. Do I have a financial stake in pop tops? Probably not at the
current pricing levels. If they got far higher then yes.
I like the pop tops as a collector and if I could afford them I'd be all over them.
digs, insults, and warnings."
Yet another great reason we should suppress the warnings. I had no idea that what you could find should influence people expressing what they deem as reasonable assessments.
I stand by what I have said and my reasons for them, so, good luck.
idea of the depth of the hatred for these coins and historically the items which do
best are the ones hated the most. On this basis the worn out '66 quarter in your
pocket should already be worth a million dollars.
Just a couple of points of clarification:
Don't all collectors smell their raw coins? I certainly do. The metals smell different and you can detect signs of cleaning or other tampering.
I may be confused here, but I though Founding Father liked Morgans (in a general, non-personal kind of way)?
Finally, why would anyone buy an uncirculated coin? (modern or classic - other than a proof or pattern, that is) Coins are supposed to circulate, not sit in a bag in a dark vault for a hundred years!
Paying a premium for an uncirculated coin, be it an MS-62 or an MS-69 is just plain silly!
(This, of course, is the classic "a pox on both your houses" flame.)
We now return you to your original programming.
Check out the Southern Gold Society
Werent classics moderns at one time? I thought back in the late 1800's a morgan dollar could only be called modern and not a classic.
Point is... eventually, today's moderns will be classics too (although they still may be called something else "post-classic, pre statehood or something like that) and there will be newer moderns.. maybe the new Jefferson's or if they change the designs in 2009, Washington or Lincolns may be extinct too.
Collect what you want!! Time will tell from an investment standpoint whether you made out or not. I bet in the end you'll win some and lose some.. But whatever you do, have fun along the way!!
Clankeye