From now on, I will only buy coins that are described not only as "original surfaces", but "original smell"; and, I want all my coins to be "PQ" and "PU"!
We're so deep in this thread that I'd guess this will never be read, but I have only one parting thought. Golf is another of my hobbies. My titanium driver cost $700, the putter $175, the irons $450, the bag $150. 15 years of golf, at least 3 rounds a month @ 50 per round, $9000. Golf balls, driving range fees, tees, towels, spikes, gloves, etc, probably another $1000. As hobbies go, I've spent approximately $11,000 on golf, and I won't get a dime of it back. If I sold my equipment, it would likely fetch $500. I have gotten at least as much enjoyment from collecting coins. People who collect as a hobby would do well to remember education doesn't come cheap, and that's what I've gotten for my $10,000 investment in golf. I regularly break 80, and play from the back. I've gotten considerably better at choosing coins to add to my collection as well. I think that is a good point of view from which to consider the relevance of coin ROI. Enjoy the hobby. I collect coins that I like, not coins I think will make a profit. That includes moderns and classics. Keep it fun, and quit worrying so much.
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
i think that there is much worry and b1tching screming moANING about subjective opinions based on plastic and grades for mainly one reason by many
it is most all if not all money based and that is okie nothing wrong with that!! just the way it is
BUT
just part of life and human nature but if you base lots of your coin "hobby" on money and expectations then you will always be sorely disappointed and create much upset for yourself
and if you cant stand the heat get out of the kitchen! not only will you feel better but you will have a better life also!! unless for some unknown reason you need coins to live because without coins it would be death for you then by all means stay and b1tch and get upset if you want to if you want to!!
I like all coins, and love to see people enjoy the hobby. It's other aspects and problems within the industry I was commenting on. No one is suggesting that people collect something different, or that newbies should not get heavily involved in condition-rare moderns -- I am saying that they should be aware of the fact that so many experienced coin collectors are raising a red flag about some of the inherent features of this segment and consider all series and approaches, before they empty their bank accounts. Education is power as someone said, and that is true. I would not suppress the great reasons to collect the modern series like some (generally those heavily invested or sell) would like to suppress the extra dangers.
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Good post Don, I used to play a lot of golf unfortunately arthritis and other health problems have limited my ability to do so. I still own a set of McGregor Tourney clubs, circa 1964 and I play with a set of Wilson Tour grinds, bought in 1979. I gave up trying to keep up with all the new innovations.
FF, I don't disagree with warning new collectors about the pitfalls of the hobby, but so often on here it breaks down into flaming and you and I both know when that happens no one listens. As I said before sometimes the best way to learn is to jump in, get burned and if you have a half a brain about you and really love this hobby it can be an invaluable lesson. Who among us hasn't had this happen? Sadder but wiser can lead to happy and smarter.
Good point IrishMike, I have to agree with your general observation. However, perhaps you can agree, that it is AOK and even good at times for people with a variety of assessments to express it, and give the newbie some well-rounded viewpoints -- not just about modern hype, but about cleaning coins, buying artificial toning, or ebay scams. Also, I don't think some potential flaming should ever stop you, IrishMike, from sharing your hard-earned wisdom or experiences with others. In fact, judging by the demeanor of your post, I would say you would gladly go out of your way to help a newbie, like so many of us would.
This is no different -- the only trouble is, those with money vested in certain coins take it personally. That is no reason for the warnings to go away -- in fact, it is exactly why they will, and should, continue.
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Money on golf, and no return, just good ol fun... That's what it's all about. As a long time RC pilot I have lost more money in the blink of an eye than I care to think about. Yet the enjoyment of a clean sheet design, build, takeoff/landing (and still in one piece) is worth it. I did it because I loved the thrill,,,,,, same goes for coins,, just in a different way.
Great thread BTW, and I'm sure a lot of people learned a lot about their collecting habits from it.
I just looked at the greysheet for roll prices dated June 1, 1973 and compared the prices to November 8, 2002.
The BU roll price of the 1950-D 5c rolls went from $370 bid to $210 in that time frame whereas the 1951-D went from $40 to $120. Which is the better buy then and today? Who really knew then and now?
History always repeats itself in that well over 50% of any series, even the condition rarities turn out to be common while the precious overlooked few turn out to be the great rarities of the future. The problem is figuring out which ones they are ahead of time. It is also the dynamic part of the hobby and what can make it fun since collectors at heart (in my view) try to buy what they think will be the rare coins down the road as they would rather buy "their perceived underpriced coin now rather than when everyone discovers that it is rare."
Look at some other examples:
1960-P sd rolls $97.50 bid to $ 80.00 1970-S sm rolls $35.00 bid to $925.00
Now buying classic coins is certainly no assurance of avoiding getting their clocks cleaned in that the 1903-O and 1904-O were some of the worst purchases a collector could make if made prior to 1963 in which prices fell by more than 90% due to the deluge of government released hoards they discovered in the early 1960's.
I do happen to believe that many of the 1982 and 1983 coinage as well as some of the coinage of the late 1960's are underappreciated at this time. I do note that the 1983-P quarters is slowly claiming its role as a powerhouse leader since it is impossible to locate.
Condition rarities is a tricky game to play. A collector will be mostly lucky in which ones will be winners and which will be losers. As long as the collector buys them early enough in the game for the purpose of completing a set and judiciously not overdoing the payment of high prices he or she will get great satisfaction from the hobby as long as price appreciation is not the goal.
But it will also behoove the modern collector to balance his purchases by also taking a peek at the classic coins. The reverse is also true. Classic coin collectors such as myself do not know all the answers as indeed modern coins turn into classic coins one year at a time.
Oreville; Excellent points and observations, but a modern collector does not have to rely solely on luck to determine which high grade coins are rare and which are more common.
If you look at a handful of nice original mint sets you'll very quickly get an idea of what's available and what isn't. Check a single set of one date from ten different sources. Keep in mind that all five sets in an original shipping box will look nearly identical and these sets often travel together long after the shipping box is destroyed. Once you've sampled ten sets you'll have a good idea of what's tough and what isn't. There are lots of abberations in the distributions of the coins in various grades and many of these will be invisible in a small sample, but it will usually give you an excellent "picture" of what's available if you connect and extend the dots.
The mint generally has long put the best coins in the mint sets but one ignores the BU rolls at his peril. There are a few coins which just don't come nice in mint sets. Varieties appear in the mint sets, but those which do are common by virtue of the fact that they are in mint sets. Most of the modern varieties do not appear in mint sets. There are also many regular issue moderns which were not included in mint sets.
So yes, luck does play a roll in actually seeing a representative sample and in finding the coins once you know what to look for. It also plays a roll in finding BU rolls of modern coins to check, since the availability of these is very spotty, and some (especially dimes and quarters) are vir- tually unobtainable since they just simply were not saved.
cladking: There are certainly areas of agreement in which I share with you including that luck is not the sole determinant of doing well in picking the "right" clads to buy first.
I have been around long enough to know that the ugly ducklings of the hobby often turns into swans. The only problem is that the hobby is trying to turn some of these clad issues into swans long before the test of time has finished doing its work.
A few interesting history stories...one is the 1942-D nickel ...no one wanted them, they were enamored by the 1942-P and 1942-S silver nickels...no one saved the 1942-D nickels in any significant quantities and now we see the moderns fast forward to the future and now it is more than quadruple the price of the 1942-P silver warnick which at one time was less than 50% of the latter price wise.
The 1883 liberty nickel was the darling of the public...everyone saved them. No one cared for the 1883 with cents. Now, the tables are turned.
My understanding is that the 1966/1967 quarters are incredibly tough in beautiful mint state whereas the sms ones are easy to find. But a sudden full mint bag or two of these quarters could turn these issues into a dog very quickly but it is getting less and less likely with each passing year.
Many millions of people collected modern coins in 1964. Many thousands of people speculated in many millions of moderns in 1964. If demand for moderns were to be- come even a small fraction of what it was in 1964 you could see "the test of time" come and go very quickly!
cladking: I think you missed my point. The large numbers of collectors between 1964 and 1972 distorted certain coins values such as the 1950-D nickel while it took many years more for the 1951-D nickel to show its value as a near equal condition rarity to the 1950-D nickel. Time cannot be rushed to determine the ultimate rarities. In fact, I believe it takes a full 30-40 years to sort this stuff out.
The increased number of collectors out there does not (in my view) speed up the sorting out of real from perceived rarities and in fact, may do the opposite.
Another case in point, the 1955-D BU quarters, the darling of collectors throughout the 1960's and 1970's then the 1980's through the mid 1990's and now a mere shell of its former self. Even the "common" 1955-P quarters which was the poor step-sister to the 1955-D quarter is now almost double the price of the 1955-D!!
The market realization that the 1955-P BU quarters were scarcer than the 1955-D quarters came about in the year 1999. a full 44 YEARS AFTER THE COINS WERE MINTED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Comments
<< <i>I am absolutely convinced now that smell should be considered in a coin's final grade. >>
And if thats the case I'll never get another MS62!
"Senorita HepKitty"
"I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
Check out the Southern Gold Society
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Clankeye
i think that there is much worry and b1tching screming moANING about subjective opinions based on plastic and grades for mainly one reason by many
it is most all if not all money based and that is okie nothing wrong with that!! just the way it is
BUT
just part of life and human nature but if you base lots of your coin "hobby" on money and expectations then you will always be sorely disappointed and create much upset for yourself
and if you cant stand the heat get out of the kitchen! not only will you feel better but you will have a better life also!! unless for some unknown reason you need coins to live because without coins it would be death for you then by all means stay and b1tch and get upset if you want to if you want to!!
riches are thorns
sincerely michael
<< <i>Oh no! I see it now, scratch and sniff slabs! >>
Oh no! It gets worse! They'll be grading the slabs unscratched, Almost unscratched, all
the way down to poorly scratched or most sincerely scratched.
FF, I don't disagree with warning new collectors about the pitfalls of the hobby, but so often on here it breaks down into flaming and you and I both know when that happens no one listens. As I said before sometimes the best way to learn is to jump in, get burned and if you have a half a brain about you and really love this hobby it can be an invaluable lesson. Who among us hasn't had this happen? Sadder but wiser can lead to happy and smarter.
This is no different -- the only trouble is, those with money vested in certain coins take it personally. That is no reason for the warnings to go away -- in fact, it is exactly why they will, and should, continue.
Great thread BTW, and I'm sure a lot of people learned a lot about their collecting habits from it.
The BU roll price of the 1950-D 5c rolls went from $370 bid to $210 in that time frame whereas the 1951-D went from $40 to $120. Which is the better buy then and today? Who really knew then and now?
History always repeats itself in that well over 50% of any series, even the condition rarities turn out to be common while the precious overlooked few turn out to be the great rarities of the future. The problem is figuring out which ones they are ahead of time. It is also the dynamic part of the hobby and what can make it fun since collectors at heart (in my view) try to buy what they think will be the rare coins down the road as they would rather buy "their perceived underpriced coin now rather than when everyone discovers that it is rare."
Look at some other examples:
1960-P sd rolls $97.50 bid to $ 80.00
1970-S sm rolls $35.00 bid to $925.00
Now buying classic coins is certainly no assurance of avoiding getting their clocks cleaned in that the 1903-O and 1904-O were some of the worst purchases a collector could make if made prior to 1963 in which prices fell by more than 90% due to the deluge of government released hoards they discovered in the early 1960's.
I do happen to believe that many of the 1982 and 1983 coinage as well as some of the coinage of the late 1960's are underappreciated at this time. I do note that the 1983-P quarters is slowly claiming its role as a powerhouse leader since it is impossible to locate.
Condition rarities is a tricky game to play. A collector will be mostly lucky in which ones will be winners and which will be losers. As long as the collector buys them early enough in the game for the purpose of completing a set and judiciously not overdoing the payment of high prices he or she will get great satisfaction from the hobby as long as price appreciation is not the goal.
But it will also behoove the modern collector to balance his purchases by also taking a peek at the classic coins. The reverse is also true. Classic coin collectors such as myself do not know all the answers as indeed modern coins turn into classic coins one year at a time.
rely solely on luck to determine which high grade coins are rare and which are more
common.
If you look at a handful of nice original mint sets you'll very quickly get an idea of what's
available and what isn't. Check a single set of one date from ten different sources. Keep
in mind that all five sets in an original shipping box will look nearly identical and these
sets often travel together long after the shipping box is destroyed. Once you've sampled
ten sets you'll have a good idea of what's tough and what isn't. There are lots of abberations
in the distributions of the coins in various grades and many of these will be invisible in a small
sample, but it will usually give you an excellent "picture" of what's available if you connect and
extend the dots.
The mint generally has long put the best coins in the mint sets but one ignores the BU rolls at
his peril. There are a few coins which just don't come nice in mint sets. Varieties appear in the
mint sets, but those which do are common by virtue of the fact that they are in mint sets. Most
of the modern varieties do not appear in mint sets. There are also many regular issue moderns
which were not included in mint sets.
So yes, luck does play a roll in actually seeing a representative sample and in finding the coins
once you know what to look for. It also plays a roll in finding BU rolls of modern coins to check,
since the availability of these is very spotty, and some (especially dimes and quarters) are vir-
tually unobtainable since they just simply were not saved.
I have been around long enough to know that the ugly ducklings of the hobby often turns into swans. The only problem is that the hobby is trying to turn some of these clad issues into swans long before the test of time has finished doing its work.
A few interesting history stories...one is the 1942-D nickel ...no one wanted them, they were enamored by the 1942-P and 1942-S silver nickels...no one saved the 1942-D nickels in any significant quantities and now we see the moderns fast forward to the future and now it is more than quadruple the price of the 1942-P silver warnick which at one time was less than 50% of the latter price wise.
The 1883 liberty nickel was the darling of the public...everyone saved them. No one cared for the 1883 with cents. Now, the tables are turned.
My understanding is that the 1966/1967 quarters are incredibly tough in beautiful mint state whereas the sms ones are easy to find. But a sudden full mint bag or two of these quarters could turn these issues into a dog very quickly but it is getting less and less likely with each passing year.
speculated in many millions of moderns in 1964. If demand for moderns were to be-
come even a small fraction of what it was in 1964 you could see "the test of time"
come and go very quickly!
The increased number of collectors out there does not (in my view) speed up the sorting out of real from perceived rarities and in fact, may do the opposite.
Another case in point, the 1955-D BU quarters, the darling of collectors throughout the 1960's and 1970's then the 1980's through the mid 1990's and now a mere shell of its former self. Even the "common" 1955-P quarters which was the poor step-sister to the 1955-D quarter is now almost double the price of the 1955-D!!
The market realization that the 1955-P BU quarters were scarcer than the 1955-D quarters came about in the year 1999. a full 44 YEARS AFTER THE COINS WERE MINTED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!