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  • MaywoodMaywood Posts: 3,303 ✭✭✭✭✭

    This isn't true. Strength of Schedule is a simple linear regression based on average winning percentage. If you believe it's biased just explain how.

    Because the Polling that it's based on is biased.

    "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety," --- Benjamin Franklin

  • bgrbgr Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Maywood said:
    This isn't true. Strength of Schedule is a simple linear regression based on average winning percentage. If you believe it's biased just explain how.

    Because the Polling that it's based on is biased.

    Not true. It is based on teams winning percentages.

    The question you might want to ask is. How do they come up with the rankings for week 1? Well that's where the weather man analogy comes in.

    But no. Strength of Schedule is not based on the polling data or ranking position. I didn't have to guess how it worked when I wanted to know. I really don't know if you could be more wrong but I know you won't back down because that's who you are.

    Option 1. Be a Man and own your ignorance. There are lots of things I don't know and it's perfectly OK to be wrong.
    Option 2. Make something up and argue your own reality as you have been.
    Option 3. Go silent. Wait for it to blow over... I'll stop caring seconds after your last post about how SOS is calculated.

    AI Overview

    NCAAF strength of schedule is calculated by combining the winning percentages of a team's opponents and those opponents' opponents. The formula uses a weighted average, giving more weight to the opponents' records and less to the opponents' opponents' records. Different models exist, and the College Football Playoff committee now uses enhanced metrics, including a "record strength" metric that accounts for the quality of opponents defeated.

    How it's calculated

    Opponent's record: The primary method is to add up the won/loss records of a team's opponents.

    Opponent's opponent's record: The calculation also includes the cumulative won/loss records of those opponents' opponents.

    Weighted average: The final strength of schedule is a weighted average, with the opponents' records receiving more weight (e.g., two-thirds) and the opponents' opponents' records receiving less (e.g., one-third).

  • MaywoodMaywood Posts: 3,303 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Wow, now that you've challenged my Manhood I have to respond!! Only I don't know what to say.

    "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety," --- Benjamin Franklin

  • bgrbgr Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Maywood said:
    Wow, now that you've challenged my Manhood I have to respond!! Only I don't know what to say.

    Option 4. Deflect.

    Anyways. I hope you’ll do some reading.

  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 4,484 ✭✭✭✭✭

    For those arguing that SOS doesnt matter why isnt JMU a top 10 team, theyre 8-1 so they should be ahead of ND right? North Texas is 9-1 as well.

    San Diego State, UNLV, Navy, Tulane, USF, UVA, Pitt, Cincy, Utah, Kennesaw State, Western Kentucky, Southern Miss all have the same record as Notre Dame why are they not ranked right next to them?

    The answer is simple, SOS matters and generally when fans argue against it its because they know it will hurt the team they root for. Its crazy to argue that it shouldnt be taken into account

    Fire AJ Preller

  • bgrbgr Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Basebal21 said:
    For those arguing that SOS doesnt matter why isnt JMU a top 10 team, theyre 8-1 so they should be ahead of ND right? North Texas is 9-1 as well.

    San Diego State, UNLV, Navy, Tulane, USF, UVA, Pitt, Cincy, Utah, Kennesaw State, Western Kentucky, Southern Miss all have the same record as Notre Dame why are they not ranked right next to them?

    The answer is simple, SOS matters and generally when fans argue against it its because they know it will hurt the team they root for. Its crazy to argue that it shouldnt be taken into account

    I don't think that's the case here regarding SOS. I don't think the guys you were arguing with understand how SOS works. I am curious why you don't prefer SOR over SOS.

  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 4,484 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bgr said:

    @Basebal21 said:
    For those arguing that SOS doesnt matter why isnt JMU a top 10 team, theyre 8-1 so they should be ahead of ND right? North Texas is 9-1 as well.

    San Diego State, UNLV, Navy, Tulane, USF, UVA, Pitt, Cincy, Utah, Kennesaw State, Western Kentucky, Southern Miss all have the same record as Notre Dame why are they not ranked right next to them?

    The answer is simple, SOS matters and generally when fans argue against it its because they know it will hurt the team they root for. Its crazy to argue that it shouldnt be taken into account

    I don't think that's the case here regarding SOS. I don't think the guys you were arguing with understand how SOS works. I am curious why you don't prefer SOR over SOS.

    I take both into account but SOS is a big part of SOR. Both can be hindered from injuries, but the SOR wouldnt exist without the SOS. Maybe I give SOS a slight edge in cases where you would be looking at two teams for the decision, but I dont outweigh either of them against each other. There are bad teams that have good records and good teams that have bad records if one of those two matrix are weighed to heavily.

    I prefer to take everything into account both SOS, SOR, talent level and so on not just records as a Kennesaw State 7-2 isnt the same as a Texas 7-2

    Fire AJ Preller

  • bgrbgr Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I agree with all that. SOR helps me see through all the noise in SOR as the best teams get biased down because they’re the best teams. I don’t like how SOS penalizes high ranked teams that lose to other high ranked teams so much. I think that has some effect on some of these schools playing it safe with their non conference schedule. I think what the SEC is doing in 26 will be good for college football but if this PE thing with the B1G goes through I think it’s going to ruin the game.

  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 4,484 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bgr said:
    I agree with all that. SOR helps me see through all the noise in SOR as the best teams get biased down because they’re the best teams. I don’t like how SOS penalizes high ranked teams that lose to other high ranked teams so much. I think that has some effect on some of these schools playing it safe with their non conference schedule. I think what the SEC is doing in 26 will be good for college football but if this PE thing with the B1G goes through I think it’s going to ruin the game.

    I dont think the PE would necessarily ruin the game, but it would bite the conference in the ass. A little extra money right now to lose a lot of money over the course of time and all these schools have a ton of money anyways its just how they use it. The Big 12 explored this last year and ultimately said no.

    Last I saw SoCal and Michigan are against the PE, SoCal doesnt really have any leverage being new but maybe Michigan can stop it. Im not sure how their dynamics work for the voting whether it just has to be a majority or every one.

    The smart move would be for the B!G to team up with the SEC and just really start throwing their weight around where the Big 12 and ACC would follow and not let the smaller conferences out vote them. Those 4 could legitimately start their own league for football and TV deals wouldnt change. Just play each other for out of conference games and stop paying schools a million dollars a game for a guaranteed win

    Fire AJ Preller

  • bgrbgr Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It’s a lot of money for these schools to waste on bad Head Coach contracts. Every school will be maxing out the NIL cap. Perhaps “ruin” was a little over the top but picturing that and the B1G plan for a 30 team playoff doesn’t excite me about the game. And that still seems to be the big reason the SEC and B1G can’t align on FBS.

  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 4,484 ✭✭✭✭✭

    They all have a billion dollars or so in endowments and boosters that will happily pay to get rid of coaches like horse racing where you really arent going to make money other than a few cases. Texas A&M got something like a 160 million dollar check to cover Fishers buy out when they fired him costing the school nothing

    The buyouts are stupid high for some but theres no shortage of money and some of them like Franklins get paid out over a number of years

    Fire AJ Preller

  • coolstanleycoolstanley Posts: 3,391 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Both SOS and SOR are far from perfect stats.

    In 2024 these were the top 3 teams in SOR

    1. Oregon
    2. Georgia
    3. Texas

    How did that pan out?

    Terry Bradshaw was AMAZING!!

    Ohio State Buckeyes - National Champions

  • MaywoodMaywood Posts: 3,303 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I for one am done with this discussion, no point when you seem really angry about it all and we clearly just don't agree on things. Neither one of us will cause the other to change their mind, so what's the use of trying??

    @coolstanly, that's a good example and not that different from what you'll see this season. I find more value in watching the games, or at least the highlights, and looking at the stats to figure out how good the teams are. As long as the CFP keeps packing the 12 teams at the top with the SEC they'll succeed in getting one of them into the final. Since the ACC wet the bed it's easier this season.

    "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety," --- Benjamin Franklin

  • bgrbgr Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coolstanley said:
    Both SOS and SOR are far from perfect stats.

    In 2024 these were the top 3 teams in SOR

    1. Oregon
    2. Georgia
    3. Texas

    How did that pan out?

    2024 Ended with this order…

    OSU
    Oregon
    ND
    Georgia
    Texas

    Which are you looking at? I tend to just look at ESPNs.

    I’m not saying this means SOR is always going to hand you the right answer. There are not enough games and there are too many big variables to use it as either an answer or a crystal ball. It just helps get us close and then we need to do the work.

  • bgrbgr Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Maywood said:
    I for one am done with this discussion, no point when you seem really angry about it all and we clearly just don't agree on things. Neither one of us will cause the other to change their mind, so what's the use of trying??

    Let's not project too much here. You're arguing objective facts (how SOS works) as if it's subjective, mysterious, or both. Now you're "agreeing to disagree" and I hope it is because you learned how it works.

    @coolstanly, that's a good example and not that different from what you'll see this season.

    Is that a good example? It appears made up. OSU had the #1 SOR last year and the #2 SOS. They were clearly the best team in college football. This year not much has changed. Sayin is better than Howard was and while they lost Egbuka to the NFL they still have some star power and impressive depth at the position. Oh yeah... their defense doesn't suck either.

    I find more value in watching the games, or at least the highlights, and looking at the stats to figure out how good the teams are.

    No doubt. Watching stats roll week over week doesn't sound like fun. The data isn't the answer - it's just the vehicle it arrives in. You're creating this strong position that someone is telling you to blindly agree with SOS, but that's not true at all.

    As long as the CFP keeps packing the 12 teams at the top with the SEC they'll succeed in getting one of them into the final. Since the ACC wet the bed it's easier this season.

    The B1G wants to have 7 automatic bids for the SEC. In case you don't get internet where you live.

  • coolstanleycoolstanley Posts: 3,391 ✭✭✭✭✭

    BGR i believe your stats are the final after all the games were played. My stats I posted were before the CFP began.

    Terry Bradshaw was AMAZING!!

    Ohio State Buckeyes - National Champions

  • bgrbgr Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coolstanley said:
    BGR i believe your stats are the final after all the games were played. My stats I posted were before the CFP began.

    You are correct.

    I don't know what the point is then. I don't want to speak for anyone else, but I do not see anyone making the argument that the Gators should be #1 and the Badgers should be #2 because they are ranked #1 and #2 in SOS right now.

    To be clear. I think SOR is a better value to look at as a starting point for saying 'Team A' should be ranked above/ below 'Team B', but I don't think SOR tells us that 'Team A' should be ranked above/ below 'Team B'. This position is strengthened by the fact that we have a CFP committee and the selection isn't purely algorithmic.

    Are there teams which you think are being unfairly punished? I have a lot of trouble getting worked up about it until I start seeing those last couple CFP rankings.

  • coolstanleycoolstanley Posts: 3,391 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If SOS and SOR were the be all, then there is no way a group of 5 team would have a automatic bid. When it comes to playoff rankings within the power 4, it should be based among conference wins and placements. or in other words, where the teams rank among where they stand in their own conference.

    Terry Bradshaw was AMAZING!!

    Ohio State Buckeyes - National Champions

  • bgrbgr Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coolstanley said:
    If SOS and SOR were the be all, then there is no way a group of 5 team would have a automatic bid. When it comes to playoff rankings within the power 4, it should be based among conference wins and placements. or in other words, where the teams rank among where they stand in their own conference.

    If SOS and SOR were the be all, then there is no way a group of 5 team would have a automatic bid.

    If you read what I've said you should see that I am using terms such as 'hint' and 'indicator' to describe them. I would hesitate to consider them the same as one introduces detail the other lacks. Detail that I think is important.

    When I say that I think A&M is the 2nd best team right now and I think the CFP will put them at #2 tonight it's not because SOS says they're the 15th ranked team according to SOS. It's also not because SOR says they're the #1 ranked team according to SOR. These statistics are attributes of the team, but they do not define positioning.

    In other news... I am really enjoying watching this Brian Kelly saga play out. @Basebal21 Speaking of that A&M buyout with what's happening at LSU in focus, I think the key thing to do is not let Woodward make adult decisions.

  • MaywoodMaywood Posts: 3,303 ✭✭✭✭✭

    And you just don't want to leave it at "we disagree" with each other. If it will make you happy, You win.

    "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety," --- Benjamin Franklin

  • bgrbgr Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Maywood said:
    And you just don't want to leave it at "we disagree" with each other. If it will make you happy, You win.

    What do we disagree about?

    You were wrong about how SOS worked and I was responding to "cool". You don't seem to be able to accept or admit that you were wrong and that's something you might want to look into. It's the same as saying the Earth is flat and ending it with "let's agree to disagree". I'm not going to convince you how things work, but if you say something which is incorrect someone may correct you - especially if you're projecting your own ignorance onto other people by saying they are using SOS as a strict ranking tool... over and over and over.

    @Maywood said:
    This isn't true. Strength of Schedule is a simple linear regression based on average winning percentage. If you believe it's biased just explain how.

    Because the Polling that it's based on is biased.

    You can agree to disagree all you want but that doesn't make it true.

  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 32,467 ✭✭✭✭✭

  • bgrbgr Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Can you find one with me. I'm the one rolling his eyes and laughing.

  • MaywoodMaywood Posts: 3,303 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Just for clarity and then I'm done with this because you just won't let it die.

    What we disagree with is this: you are correct in the formulas to figure out Strength of Schedule and Strength of Record, but what I have been saying all along is that the voters don't use that stuff to rank these teams. They have their own biased way of assigning value to wins and losses and where they place a team in that Top 12 to get the matches they want. The CFP committee as much as admitted that in the past, specifically when it was still a 4-team playoff and they were picking the crucial 4th team.

    If you think there's no bias involved your being naive. The Chairman of the CFP right now is from I believe Mississippi State of the SEC and he is on record as saying he doesn't support having the automatic bids. That's NO AUTOMIC QUALIFIERS if the SEC gets their way. Why do you think that is?? Could it be because that way more of his SEC teams could get in?? And what about ESPN, better known as the SEC network?? Starting next season they've paid a whopping $7.8 BILLION for the right to broadcast all of the Playoff Games. What sort of influence do you think that will have??

    So don't accuse me of all sorts of things and deny that bias doesn't affect these ratings and that they are based on some mathematical formula, because they aren't. Go ahead and reply if you want to but I've had my last word on it.

    "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety," --- Benjamin Franklin

  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 4,484 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coolstanley said:
    If SOS and SOR were the be all, then there is no way a group of 5 team would have a automatic bid. When it comes to playoff rankings within the power 4, it should be based among conference wins and placements. or in other words, where the teams rank among where they stand in their own conference.

    The 5th conference championship auto bid had nothing to do with the SOS or SOR. The only reason that exists is because the smaller conferences basically blackmailed the power conferences tp make that compromise. The simple fact is even if the Power 4 and ND all vote together the smaller conferences can out vote and they needed the votes in order to expand the playoffs. Without giving them a guaranteed spot they werent going to get the votes they needed so someone gets an easy first round win now because of it

    Fire AJ Preller

  • Basebal21Basebal21 Posts: 4,484 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bgr said:
    In other news... I am really enjoying watching this Brian Kelly saga play out. @Basebal21 Speaking of that A&M buyout with what's happening at LSU in focus, I think the key thing to do is not let Woodward make adult decisions.

    Firing Woodward was very smart. Apparently Kelly was very hated there and was unwilling to negotiate his buyout down for more upfront and is now suing LSU for it. LSU has now decided to say he was fired for cause so they wouldnt owe him any buyout.

    Speaking of buyouts Belli is apparently trying to get the Giants job and get out of UNC

    Fire AJ Preller

  • bgrbgr Posts: 3,318 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Maywood said:
    Just for clarity and then I'm done with this because you just won't let it die.

    I get it. You're a "last word kind of guy". So I think we're settled on what SOS and SOR are now. That's awesome for both of us as now we can use those terms knowing we're talking about the same thing.


    I've removed all of the stuff from the middle. I don't mind discussing any of those new points you've introduced if you want, but I won't do that now as I believe you're only introducing that to distract from the SOS debate.

    So don't accuse me of all sorts of things and deny that bias doesn't affect these ratings and that they are based on some mathematical formula, because they aren't. Go ahead and reply if you want to but I've had my last word on it.

    I didn't say any of that. SOS is what SOS is. It is not what you said it was.

    • I do not believe I am accusing you of anything. It's not clear what you are referring to. If I made an accusation in error then I would like to correct my statement(s).
    • I've never denied bias. Humans use cognitive "shortcuts" - we're trained to and it's really difficult to spot our own biases. I would not make this type of general statement and I would say that the CFP has likely made selection decisions in the past which were biased - consciously or unconsciously.
    • I did not sat that SOS or SOR were used directly for CFP selections. That's a bit ridiculous as we know it's untrue.

    Did you go to OSU?

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