As many of you know, I’m a big fan of CAC and CACG, but….
Other than novices making errors, why in the world would someone agree to buy a box of assorted unknown CACG graded coins, a mix of random modern and classic coins, BLIND? They can just go to a coin show, or even online to dealers that carry CACG graded coins, and pick out coins that interest them!
This is just a method to unload inventory in a mass way! Other dealers have to wait for collectors to contact them specifically wanting one of their coins. I guess this is a brilliant way to sell a LOT (no pun intended) of mixed modern and classic inventory FAST! P.T. Barnum is jealous!
I also wonder how many repeat buyers there will be? My last wonder is will buyers of these random CACG graded coins who potentially can be entering our hobby be permanently turned off when they go to a local coin dealer to ask what they can sell these for? Instead of getting people to join our wonderful hobby, I fear this will end up turning those people away!
Steve
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!!!
@TrickleCharge said:
With NGC, PCGS and CACG all now involved in the "mystery box" game, one wonders if the big two (ICG and ANACS) will also seek publicity and attach their names to sight unseen coin gambling or just stick to grading coins as they cross their desk?
I think you are looking at it upside down. The TPGs are not seeking publicity with this.
Rather, it is the purveyors seeking legitimacy by attaching themselves to a TPG. Given that NGC, PCGS and now, CACG, are willing to be associated with such enterprises, do you think anyone will think theirs will be even better, or more desirable, through an association with ICG or ANACS?
If not, don't hold your breath waiting to see those names on any sealed boxes any time soon. Just like no one is clamoring to have ICG and ANACS included in registries, no one otherwise interested in a mystery box will be holding their horses waiting for one graded by ICG or ANACS.
I'm sure ICG and ANACS would be flattered, and would fall over themselves to grab the money if it was offered, but there is just no reason to go with them when the Big 3 are willing to do this. Like everything else in our hobby, a mystery box graded by the Little 2 would instantly be deemed to be second class.
I suppose the actual question is why would companies like PCGS, NGC and CACG agree to be associated with something that has struck obvious displeasure and frankly a bit of a joke with so many collectors? Are the majority of people buying mystery boxes serious collectors who care about the grading company inside or do they just see a chance to win something more than they put in? The grading companies are paid as you mention, and in the case of a CACG I would argue that as a new to grading company it also gets their name out there to non collectors looking to gamble on coins.
When ICG was selected to grade the Goodacre dollars, that was not part of a gimmick. They even delineated between type 1 and 2 varieties, which still hasn't been done elsewhere. To me that shows a respectability in the hobby. If I was just starting as a collector and looking for a reputable grading company, I'm not sure it would be one that's associated with mystery boxes. Maybe the idea of ANACS and ICG registry sets, as well as the companies themselves, should not be considered second class.
This board is not representative m go on WhatNot. People love mystery boxes
@winesteven said:
As many of you know, I’m a big fan of CAC and CACG, but….
Other than novices making errors, why in the world would someone agree to buy a box of assorted unknown CACG graded coins, a mix of random modern and classic coins, BLIND? They can just go to a coin show, or even online to dealers that carry CACG graded coins, and pick those coins out that interest them!
This is just a method to unload inventory in a mass way! Other dealers have to wait for collectors to contact them specifically wanting one of their coins. I guess this is a brilliant way to sell a LOT (no pun intended) of mixed modern and classic inventory FAST! P.T. Barnum is jealous!
I also wonder how many repeat buyers there will be? My last wonder is will buyers of these random CACG graded coins who potentially can be entering our hobby be permanently turned off when they go to a local coin dealer to ask what they can sell these for? Instead of getting people to join our wonderful hobby, I fear this will end up turning those people away!
Steve
I must be on ignore.
Go see @JoeyCoins TouTube threads. Go on whatnot.com. SOME people live mystery boxes and lotteries and they enter them EVERY DAY.
This is not about people filing holes in collections any more than casinos are equivalent to 402ks. People enjoy the gambling aspect.
They also like the social aspect. A lot of these mystery boxes get broken live on a stream. There's dozens of people watching, sharing, congratulating, etc.
You don't have to want to be part of it. But it's really not that hard to understand it if you go watch some of these streams. And they exist in all kinds of collectibles: coins, comic books, trading cards, etc.
@TrickleCharge said:
With NGC, PCGS and CACG all now involved in the "mystery box" game, one wonders if the big two (ICG and ANACS) will also seek publicity and attach their names to sight unseen coin gambling or just stick to grading coins as they cross their desk?
I think you are looking at it upside down. The TPGs are not seeking publicity with this.
Rather, it is the purveyors seeking legitimacy by attaching themselves to a TPG. Given that NGC, PCGS and now, CACG, are willing to be associated with such enterprises, do you think anyone will think theirs will be even better, or more desirable, through an association with ICG or ANACS?
If not, don't hold your breath waiting to see those names on any sealed boxes any time soon. Just like no one is clamoring to have ICG and ANACS included in registries, no one otherwise interested in a mystery box will be holding their horses waiting for one graded by ICG or ANACS.
I'm sure ICG and ANACS would be flattered, and would fall over themselves to grab the money if it was offered, but there is just no reason to go with them when the Big 3 are willing to do this. Like everything else in our hobby, a mystery box graded by the Little 2 would instantly be deemed to be second class.
I suppose the actual question is why would companies like PCGS, NGC and CACG agree to be associated with something that has struck obvious displeasure and frankly a bit of a joke with so many collectors? Are the majority of people buying mystery boxes serious collectors who care about the grading company inside or do they just see a chance to win something more than they put in? The grading companies are paid as you mention, and in the case of a CACG I would argue that as a new to grading company it also gets their name out there to non collectors looking to gamble on coins.
When ICG was selected to grade the Goodacre dollars, that was not part of a gimmick. They even delineated between type 1 and 2 varieties, which still hasn't been done elsewhere. To me that shows a respectability in the hobby. If I was just starting as a collector and looking for a reputable grading company, I'm not sure it would be one that's associated with mystery boxes. Maybe the idea of ANACS and ICG registry sets, as well as the companies themselves, should not be considered second class.
Because we shouldn't romanticize them. They are now, with the exception of CACG, private equity owned for profit enterprises. They don't worry about us snickering at how they make their money.
Their bread and butter is now moderns and special labels. Serious collectors snicker at that entire part of the hobby, and yet it's what drove huge valuations as NGC and PCGS were bought out the last few years.
This is nothing more than a natural extension of that. The TPGs are not passing judgment. They are just taking the money and grading the product.
Good for them, and shame on anyone who would think the boxes are garbage but for the "legitimacy" conferred by virtue of the slabs and the seals on the boxes being provided by a recognized TPG. The boxes are what they are, and a TPG sealing a box is doing nothing more than providing a service for a fee. I don't pass judgment on them for doing that any more than I do when they provide special labels for the TV guys to offer at stupid premiums. It's a business.
Doesn't mean I necessarily respect the hype the TV guys engage in when marking up their wares far beyond actual value. Or what the mystery box guys do when running an unregulated lottery. But I don't blame the TPGs for providing a service to them for a fee.
True, profits drive business, but when all that's left are gimmicks and the serious collectors are gone, what will be left?
Serious collectors aren't going anywhere. The TPGs still provide a valuable service to them, and it should be of no concern to serious collectors how the TPG private equity overlords make the bulk of their money by also providing services to telemarketers, mystery box assemblers, less serious collectors, etc.
Even if the "serious collectors" went away, should I care if I don't make any money on them anyway. As you pointed out, the profit drivers for the big 2 have long been bulk grading of moderns and the corresponding labels. I guarantee they make more on monster boxes of silver eagles than classic coins.
@TrickleCharge said:
With NGC, PCGS and CACG all now involved in the "mystery box" game, one wonders if the big two (ICG and ANACS) will also seek publicity and attach their names to sight unseen coin gambling or just stick to grading coins as they cross their desk?
I think you are looking at it upside down. The TPGs are not seeking publicity with this.
Rather, it is the purveyors seeking legitimacy by attaching themselves to a TPG. Given that NGC, PCGS and now, CACG, are willing to be associated with such enterprises, do you think anyone will think theirs will be even better, or more desirable, through an association with ICG or ANACS?
If not, don't hold your breath waiting to see those names on any sealed boxes any time soon. Just like no one is clamoring to have ICG and ANACS included in registries, no one otherwise interested in a mystery box will be holding their horses waiting for one graded by ICG or ANACS.
I'm sure ICG and ANACS would be flattered, and would fall over themselves to grab the money if it was offered, but there is just no reason to go with them when the Big 3 are willing to do this. Like everything else in our hobby, a mystery box graded by the Little 2 would instantly be deemed to be second class.
I suppose the actual question is why would companies like PCGS, NGC and CACG agree to be associated with something that has struck obvious displeasure and frankly a bit of a joke with so many collectors? Are the majority of people buying mystery boxes serious collectors who care about the grading company inside or do they just see a chance to win something more than they put in? The grading companies are paid as you mention, and in the case of a CACG I would argue that as a new to grading company it also gets their name out there to non collectors looking to gamble on coins.
When ICG was selected to grade the Goodacre dollars, that was not part of a gimmick. They even delineated between type 1 and 2 varieties, which still hasn't been done elsewhere. To me that shows a respectability in the hobby. If I was just starting as a collector and looking for a reputable grading company, I'm not sure it would be one that's associated with mystery boxes. Maybe the idea of ANACS and ICG registry sets, as well as the companies themselves, should not be considered second class.
Because we shouldn't romanticize them. They are now, with the exception of CACG, private equity owned for profit enterprises. They don't worry about us snickering at how they make their money.
Their bread and butter is now moderns and special labels. Serious collectors snicker at that entire part of the hobby, and yet it's what drove huge valuations as NGC and PCGS were bought out the last few years.
This is nothing more than a natural extension of that. The TPGs are not passing judgment. They are just taking the money and grading the product.
Good for them, and shame on anyone who would think the boxes are garbage but for the "legitimacy" conferred by virtue of the slabs and the seals on the boxes being provided by a recognized TPG. The boxes are what they are, and a TPG sealing a box is doing nothing more than providing a service for a fee. I don't pass judgment on them for doing that any more than I do when they provide special labels for the TV guys to offer at stupid premiums. It's a business.
Doesn't mean I necessarily respect the hype the TV guys engage in when marking up their wares far beyond actual value. Or what the mystery box guys do when running an unregulated lottery. But I don't blame the TPGs for providing a service to them for a fee.
True, profits drive business, but when all that's left are gimmicks and the serious collectors are gone, what will be left?
Serious collectors aren't going anywhere. The TPGs still provide a valuable service to them, and it should be of no concern to serious collectors how the TPG private equity overlords make the bulk of their money by also providing services to telemarketers, mystery box assemblers, less serious collectors, etc.
I'd argue they are already leaving and the TPGs don't care. Take a look at the TrueView threads. As you said, profit is much better through mystery boxes and telemarketers. Other services that are important to collectors no longer warrant an investment.
Serious collectors aren't going anywhere. The TPGs still provide a valuable service to them, and it should be of no concern to serious collectors how the TPG private equity overlords make the bulk of their money by also providing services to telemarketers, mystery box assemblers, less serious collectors, etc.
And it should be noted that there’s a good chance that “serious collectors” benefit by maintained or lower grading costs as a result of those TPGs having other revenue streams.
What’s the chances that ‘serious collectors’ becomes the new ’real collectors’ as a result of this discussion. 😉
I like the thought that revenue made from mystery boxes and telemarketers trickles down to lower grading costs for everyone, but I'm not sure that is what happens.
Serious collectors aren't going anywhere. The TPGs still provide a valuable service to them, and it should be of no concern to serious collectors how the TPG private equity overlords make the bulk of their money by also providing services to telemarketers, mystery box assemblers, less serious collectors, etc.
And it should be noted that there’s a good chance that “serious collectors” benefit by maintained or lower grading costs as a result of those TPGs having other revenue streams.
What’s the chances that ‘serious collectors’ becomes the new ’real collectors’ as a result of this discussion. 😉
I like the thought that revenue made from mystery boxes and telemarketers trickles down to lower grading costs for everyone, but I'm not sure that is what happens.
Oh, it happens. Just imagine how much it would cost to have a valuable classic coin graded if they weren't grading literally millions of modern coins. The cost of grading would go up by at least a factor of 10, and there would be a lot less competition in the grading space.
It's probably worth keeping in mind that grading was virgin territory when the TPGs got going in the mid '80s, and that by now most classic coins worth grading have been graded. Without an infinite supply of moderns, the business as we know and love it would not exist for so-called serious collectors in 2024.
I have avoided making comments on threads like this because in life I have purchased 1 lottery ticket (Didn't like it) and can count the number of trips I have made to a casino on one hand.
On the other hand, at a picnic this week my brother inlaw Mike tried to bet me $20 dollars on when which of two flies would fly away. Different strokes for different people. I am sure someone can come up with a venn diagram that shows an overlap between born gamblers and born coin collectors, but I bet the coin part is secondary. James
Serious collectors aren't going anywhere. The TPGs still provide a valuable service to them, and it should be of no concern to serious collectors how the TPG private equity overlords make the bulk of their money by also providing services to telemarketers, mystery box assemblers, less serious collectors, etc.
And it should be noted that there’s a good chance that “serious collectors” benefit by maintained or lower grading costs as a result of those TPGs having other revenue streams.
What’s the chances that ‘serious collectors’ becomes the new ’real collectors’ as a result of this discussion. 😉
I like the thought that revenue made from mystery boxes and telemarketers trickles down to lower grading costs for everyone, but I'm not sure that is what happens.
While this project will be great for Seth with significant volume and hence profits, it will have ZERO impact on present or future grading prices for those of us that have Classic coins graded.
Steve
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!!!
@Eldorado9 said:
There is nothing new under the sun. This is the old "grab bag" idea that I used to see as a kid in the 1970's ads in the back of magazines, along with magic tricks, sea monkeys, and bb guns!
Hey, c'mon, you forgot the "X-RAY GLASSES"!
If it also includes magic tricks, sea monkeys, bb guns and x-ray specs I'm in.
Use a Hypno-Coin and you will have customers for life or at least til they run out of money.
.
.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
@Project Numismatics said:
I can only think of three dealers I’d buy from sight unseen.
I thought the appeal of this concept was in the gambling aspect - the chance to win big.
CACG at 70% CPG seems to be an attempt to appeal to more serious collectors.
Will be interesting to see how it goes - it’s a different target market than vaultbox in my opinion.
Whatever else it might be, it won't be CACG at 70% of CPG. I think what they are saying is that the value you receive will be at least 70% of what you pay. In other words, you'll be paying $100 for each $70, minimum, in value you receive. Not the other way around. And they are surely using ask prices, not bid, so the minimum value is pretty much guaranteed to suck.
That said, the question will be how much above the minimum will the typical box go? And, will there be a gambling aspect to it, or will all the boxes have roughly the same value? TBD, since they have not yet released details.
No way - you definitely pay $70 and they give you $100 or more of CACG coins.
@Project Numismatics said:
I can only think of three dealers I’d buy from sight unseen.
I thought the appeal of this concept was in the gambling aspect - the chance to win big.
CACG at 70% CPG seems to be an attempt to appeal to more serious collectors.
Will be interesting to see how it goes - it’s a different target market than vaultbox in my opinion.
Depends. I've long said that you can make money on these using bid/ask spreads.
Totally made up math since I don't know the breakdown, but assume a 20% margin. Save this for later.
Imagine you sell 1000 boxes at 100% of CPG. Call it $100 if that's easier. The floor on the boxes is $70. That means you have $30,000 to distribute. You make 50 boxes worth $120. That costs you $2500 of the $30,000. You make 50 boxes worth $170. That costs you $5000. You make 10 boxes worth $1000, that costs you $9000. Total cost of the coins in your boxes:
890×70 + 50x120 +50x170+10x1000= $86,800 in prizes. But you bought them at 20% back so you've only got $69,400 into them. Slabbing and packaging at maybe $20 per con makes the total cost $89,400. You've still got $11,000 in profit. And you also have 100 (10%) of the buyers with small wins and 10 (1%) with big wins.
Less downside on the losing boxes means fewer or lower top prizes - a bit different than VB’s approach.
The question isn’t whether Witter will make money (they will), it’s who the target market is and whether the target market will buy the boxes.
I think VB is aimed at newbies and gamblers. Witter seems to be targeting average to advanced collectors given the use of CACG and a more limited downside. Or maybe part of the effort is to educate newer collectors on CACG. It just strikes me as an odd choice to combine the gambling aspect with CACG and fewer/lower top prizes.
@Project Numismatics said:
I can only think of three dealers I’d buy from sight unseen.
I thought the appeal of this concept was in the gambling aspect - the chance to win big.
CACG at 70% CPG seems to be an attempt to appeal to more serious collectors.
Will be interesting to see how it goes - it’s a different target market than vaultbox in my opinion.
Depends. I've long said that you can make money on these using bid/ask spreads.
Totally made up math since I don't know the breakdown, but assume a 20% margin. Save this for later.
Imagine you sell 1000 boxes at 100% of CPG. Call it $100 if that's easier. The floor on the boxes is $70. That means you have $30,000 to distribute. You make 50 boxes worth $120. That costs you $2500 of the $30,000. You make 50 boxes worth $170. That costs you $5000. You make 10 boxes worth $1000, that costs you $9000. Total cost of the coins in your boxes:
890×70 + 50x120 +50x170+10x1000= $86,800 in prizes. But you bought them at 20% back so you've only got $69,400 into them. Slabbing and packaging at maybe $20 per con makes the total cost $89,400. You've still got $11,000 in profit. And you also have 100 (10%) of the buyers with small wins and 10 (1%) with big wins.
Less downside on the losing boxes means fewer or lower top prizes - a bit different than VB’s approach.
The question isn’t whether Witter will make money (they will), it’s who the target market is and whether the target market will buy the boxes.
I think VB is aimed at newbies and gamblers. Witter seems to be targeting average to advanced collectors given the use of CACG and a more limited downside. Or maybe part of the effort is to educate newer collectors on CACG. It just strikes me as an odd choice to combine the gambling aspect with CACG and fewer/lower top prizes.
According to the latest issue of Coin World, a MS64 1907 High Relief Wire Edge Double Eagle is going to be part of the festivities, so it most certainly will be another VB style lottery. No lower top prize there!
@Eldorado9 said:
There is nothing new under the sun. This is the old "grab bag" idea that I used to see as a kid in the 1970's ads in the back of magazines, along with magic tricks, sea monkeys, and bb guns!
Hey, c'mon, you forgot the "X-RAY GLASSES"!
If it also includes magic tricks, sea monkeys, bb guns and x-ray specs I'm in.
Use a Hypno-Coin and you will have customers for life or at least til they run out of money.
.
.
I remember the black soap,bee in a plastic ice cube, and even ads to buy small monkeys for $19.95 delivered in a box with air holes in it.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@AlbumNerd said:
I have to ask, what problem is this product solving? How is it making the lives of collectors easier?
Feels like just another marketing gimmick based on an unregulated lottery.
More power to people who like this, but stuff like this makes me wince when I imagine young collectors coming across this at coin shows.
It is not trying to either solve a problem or make your life easier. [How does buying any coin do that?] Is just supposed to be FUN for people who like to play these games. And there are more of them than you think. Spend a couple hours on a weekend surfing around WhatNot.com and you'll find dozens to hundreds of people having fun wrong.
@Project Numismatics said:
I can only think of three dealers I’d buy from sight unseen.
I thought the appeal of this concept was in the gambling aspect - the chance to win big.
CACG at 70% CPG seems to be an attempt to appeal to more serious collectors.
Will be interesting to see how it goes - it’s a different target market than vaultbox in my opinion.
Depends. I've long said that you can make money on these using bid/ask spreads.
Totally made up math since I don't know the breakdown, but assume a 20% margin. Save this for later.
Imagine you sell 1000 boxes at 100% of CPG. Call it $100 if that's easier. The floor on the boxes is $70. That means you have $30,000 to distribute. You make 50 boxes worth $120. That costs you $2500 of the $30,000. You make 50 boxes worth $170. That costs you $5000. You make 10 boxes worth $1000, that costs you $9000. Total cost of the coins in your boxes:
890×70 + 50x120 +50x170+10x1000= $86,800 in prizes. But you bought them at 20% back so you've only got $69,400 into them. Slabbing and packaging at maybe $20 per con makes the total cost $89,400. You've still got $11,000 in profit. And you also have 100 (10%) of the buyers with small wins and 10 (1%) with big wins.
Less downside on the losing boxes means fewer or lower top prizes - a bit different than VB’s approach.
The question isn’t whether Witter will make money (they will), it’s who the target market is and whether the target market will buy the boxes.
I think VB is aimed at newbies and gamblers. Witter seems to be targeting average to advanced collectors given the use of CACG and a more limited downside. Or maybe part of the effort is to educate newer collectors on CACG. It just strikes me as an odd choice to combine the gambling aspect with CACG and fewer/lower top prizes.
According to the latest issue of Coin World, a MS64 1907 High Relief Wire Edge Double Eagle is going to be part of the festivities, so it most certainly will be another VB style lottery. No lower top prize there!
Then the vast majority of boxes will be losers. With limited downside and a valuable top prize relative to the ticket price, it takes a lot of losers to pay for that winner.
@Project Numismatics said:
I can only think of three dealers I’d buy from sight unseen.
I thought the appeal of this concept was in the gambling aspect - the chance to win big.
CACG at 70% CPG seems to be an attempt to appeal to more serious collectors.
Will be interesting to see how it goes - it’s a different target market than vaultbox in my opinion.
Depends. I've long said that you can make money on these using bid/ask spreads.
Totally made up math since I don't know the breakdown, but assume a 20% margin. Save this for later.
Imagine you sell 1000 boxes at 100% of CPG. Call it $100 if that's easier. The floor on the boxes is $70. That means you have $30,000 to distribute. You make 50 boxes worth $120. That costs you $2500 of the $30,000. You make 50 boxes worth $170. That costs you $5000. You make 10 boxes worth $1000, that costs you $9000. Total cost of the coins in your boxes:
890×70 + 50x120 +50x170+10x1000= $86,800 in prizes. But you bought them at 20% back so you've only got $69,400 into them. Slabbing and packaging at maybe $20 per con makes the total cost $89,400. You've still got $11,000 in profit. And you also have 100 (10%) of the buyers with small wins and 10 (1%) with big wins.
Less downside on the losing boxes means fewer or lower top prizes - a bit different than VB’s approach.
The question isn’t whether Witter will make money (they will), it’s who the target market is and whether the target market will buy the boxes.
I think VB is aimed at newbies and gamblers. Witter seems to be targeting average to advanced collectors given the use of CACG and a more limited downside. Or maybe part of the effort is to educate newer collectors on CACG. It just strikes me as an odd choice to combine the gambling aspect with CACG and fewer/lower top prizes.
According to the latest issue of Coin World, a MS64 1907 High Relief Wire Edge Double Eagle is going to be part of the festivities, so it most certainly will be another VB style lottery. No lower top prize there!
Then the vast majority of boxes will be losers. With limited downside and a valuable top prize relative to the ticket price, it takes a lot of losers to pay for that winner.
Yup. Another unregulated lottery. People gonna do what people gonna do. At this point, everyone knows what it is.
If these guys make it less abusive than VB, good for them, and for the people playing. And, if not, more power to Witter for spotting the opportunity and seizing it. I no longer feel sorry for anyone looking for something for nothing, and then getting burned.
@Project Numismatics said:
I can only think of three dealers I’d buy from sight unseen.
I thought the appeal of this concept was in the gambling aspect - the chance to win big.
CACG at 70% CPG seems to be an attempt to appeal to more serious collectors.
Will be interesting to see how it goes - it’s a different target market than vaultbox in my opinion.
Whatever else it might be, it won't be CACG at 70% of CPG. I think what they are saying is that the value you receive will be at least 70% of what you pay. In other words, you'll be paying $100 for each $70, minimum, in value you receive. Not the other way around. And they are surely using ask prices, not bid, so the minimum value is pretty much guaranteed to suck.
That said, the question will be how much above the minimum will the typical box go? And, will there be a gambling aspect to it, or will all the boxes have roughly the same value? TBD, since they have not yet released details.
No way - you definitely pay $70 and they give you $100 or more of CACG coins.
Turns out there is a Santa Clause in numismatics.
If you watch the video posted below, he very clearly said you will get at least 70% of price guide value, not that you will pay 70% of price guide value. Yet another way over optimistic people are not going to understand exactly how these things work, and will then be disappointed.
Especially when they see the very aggressive retail price guide values these are being benchmarked against. No one is running a charity here. Nor are they claiming to.
Witter is not wholesaling random coins in grab bags. They are unloading crap at very generous retail markups, and getting people to bite with the lure of a potential lottery win, in an unregulated game of chance.
Maybe these coins will be less crappy than the vast majority of VB bullion. Maybe not. TBD, but lots of common modern crap now resides in CACG holders, since that is where the TPGs make their money in 2024. So I wouldn't get too excited just because CACG is the grading service this time around.
Sure, they could make less money, but why should they, given how much people have demonstrated a willingness to pay? People are going to have visions of shiny gold coins dancing in their heads as they plunk down their hard earned cash. Shame on them for expecting a free lunch, and good for Witter for deciding to get in on the action!
I may never play, but I’ve seen way worse games. If a family member wants to spend $100 on me for Christmas and surprise me, this might be a great option. Semi-Guaranteed somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 worth of coins, chance for a big winner, they give me something we can enjoy (the unboxing of) together.
I like the higher floor and the fact that the coins can differentiate themselves as opposed to the label being “rare.”
We’ll see. This is my favorite of the ones I’ve seen.
@ShaunBC5 said:
I may never play, but I’ve seen way worse games. If a family member wants to spend $100 on me for Christmas and surprise me, this might be a great option. Semi-Guaranteed somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 worth of coins, chance for a big winner, they give me something we can enjoy (the unboxing of) together.
I like the higher floor and the fact that the coins can differentiate themselves as opposed to the label being “rare.”
We’ll see. This is my favorite of the ones I’ve seen.
I don't know how many will be made, or if they will be an ongoing thing that you can purchase any time, but they might sell out before Christmas.
Young Numismatist • My Toned Coins
Life is roadblocks. Don't let nothing stop you, 'cause we ain't stopping. - DJ Khaled
@hummingbird_coins I hear you, it was just go make a point about the concept and what might get someone like me to jump in on it.
Maybe not “series 1” or whatever they’ll call it, it perhaps one day.
@ShaunBC5 said:
I may never play, but I’ve seen way worse games. If a family member wants to spend $100 on me for Christmas and surprise me, this might be a great option. Semi-Guaranteed somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 worth of coins, chance for a big winner, they give me something we can enjoy (the unboxing of) together.
I like the higher floor and the fact that the coins can differentiate themselves as opposed to the label being “rare.”
We’ll see. This is my favorite of the ones I’ve seen.
Of course it's your favorite, because it has by far the highest quality coins. Unfortunately, you'll likely need another "0" or so added to the end of your number.
Still interested at $1,000 for at least $500 or so worth of coins? Any family members going to be interested at that price? Because you'll barely be able to cover the box and the slabs for $100.
@ShaunBC5 said:
I may never play, but I’ve seen way worse games. If a family member wants to spend $100 on me for Christmas and surprise me, this might be a great option. Semi-Guaranteed somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 worth of coins, chance for a big winner, they give me something we can enjoy (the unboxing of) together.
I like the higher floor and the fact that the coins can differentiate themselves as opposed to the label being “rare.”
We’ll see. This is my favorite of the ones I’ve seen.
I don't know how many will be made, or if they will be an ongoing thing that you can purchase any time, but they might sell out before Christmas.
My sense is Seth will sell as many as people want. It’s not difficult for him to get a ton of low value MS67-69 Modern coins graded quickly by CACG, along with a bunch of straight graded low value Classic coins to mix in!
Steve
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!!!
@Project Numismatics said:
I can only think of three dealers I’d buy from sight unseen.
I thought the appeal of this concept was in the gambling aspect - the chance to win big.
CACG at 70% CPG seems to be an attempt to appeal to more serious collectors.
Will be interesting to see how it goes - it’s a different target market than vaultbox in my opinion.
Whatever else it might be, it won't be CACG at 70% of CPG. I think what they are saying is that the value you receive will be at least 70% of what you pay. In other words, you'll be paying $100 for each $70, minimum, in value you receive. Not the other way around. And they are surely using ask prices, not bid, so the minimum value is pretty much guaranteed to suck.
That said, the question will be how much above the minimum will the typical box go? And, will there be a gambling aspect to it, or will all the boxes have roughly the same value? TBD, since they have not yet released details.
No way - you definitely pay $70 and they give you $100 or more of CACG coins.
Turns out there is a Santa Clause in numismatics.
If you watch the video posted below, he very clearly said you will get at least 70% of price guide value, not that you will pay 70% of price guide value. Yet another way over optimistic people are not going to understand exactly how these things work, and will then be disappointed.
Especially when they see the very aggressive retail price guide values these are being benchmarked against. No one is running a charity here. Nor are they claiming to.
Witter is not wholesaling random coins in grab bags. They are unloading crap at very generous retail markups, and getting people to bite with the lure of a potential lottery win, in an unregulated game of chance.
Maybe these coins will be less crappy than the vast majority of VB bullion. Maybe not. TBD, but lots of common modern crap now resides in CACG holders, since that is where the TPGs make their money in 2024. So I wouldn't get too excited just because CACG is the grading service this time around.
Sure, they could make less money, but why should they, given how much people have demonstrated a willingness to pay? People are going to have visions of shiny gold coins dancing in their heads as they plunk down their hard earned cash. Shame on them for expecting a free lunch, and good for Witter for deciding to get in on the action!
Wait, hold on there! Are you saying there is NO Santa Clause in numismatics?!?
@NJCoin in just a few years $500+ may be in range for a family member or two, and I might still be just as interested as I am now (not very, but would choose this one over the others).
I’m not endorsing anyone buying this box, but I know they will and I feel there is less to detest here than other places.
@ShaunBC5 said: @NJCoin in just a few years $500+ may be in range for a family member or two, and I might still be just as interested as I am now (not very, but would choose this one over the others).
I’m not endorsing anyone buying this box, but I know they will and I feel there is less to detest here than other places.
Whatever. I'm neither detesting nor passing judgment this time around.
I was just pointing out that you are dreaming if you think you are going to get a chance to play for $100. Or even $500.
You said you thought it would be interesting at $100, with a semi-guarantee of at least $50 in return, and a shot at a big score. I just told you to put a "0" on the end of those numbers to get yourself and your relatives in the neighborhood, because you won't be able to buy anything other than an empty box with cracked out slabs for anything close to $100. Other than, of course, scrub coins once boxes are opened.
I hear you, the $100 wasn’t a hard number, I should have just said “comparable cost to the other options” which I know is well over $100. Regardless, the floor should be in the 50% of cost range, which isn’t horrible for a gamble.
Also, I wasn’t saying that you in particular were detesting. There’s a lot about these kinds of things to be detested and a few things to liked.
@ShaunBC5 said:
I hear you, the $100 wasn’t a hard number, I should have just said “comparable cost to the other options” which I know is well over $100. Regardless, the floor should be in the 50% of cost range, which isn’t horrible for a gamble.
Also, I wasn’t saying that you in particular were detesting. There’s a lot about these kinds of things to be detested and a few things to liked.
Gotcha. And, please don't get me wrong. I'm the farthest thing from a fan. I'm just done pooping on something people clearly like, and seem to understand. I arrogantly thought people did not understand the risk/reward of participating in unregulated lotteries.
I was at least partially correct, to the extent people were screaming after they saw what happened with the first VB series. But I was wrong to the extent that VBs continue to sell out, indicating people are just never going to understand. Or, more likely, and as @jmlanzaf has been saying all along, they get it and just don't care, because the thrill of the break supersedes any concerns over being screwed.
So, there is a market for people to get 50-70 cents on the dollar, on average, for the chance for a score, as you are demonstrating. I'm not sure that your chance for a score is the same as others, since distribution is not regulated or overseen by a third party. But, if you don't care about that, I am way past the point of caring on your behalf.
@ShaunBC5 said:
I may never play, but I’ve seen way worse games. If a family member wants to spend $100 on me for Christmas and surprise me, this might be a great option. Semi-Guaranteed somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 worth of coins, chance for a big winner, they give me something we can enjoy (the unboxing of) together.
I like the higher floor and the fact that the coins can differentiate themselves as opposed to the label being “rare.”
We’ll see. This is my favorite of the ones I’ve seen.
I don't know how many will be made, or if they will be an ongoing thing that you can purchase any time, but they might sell out before Christmas.
My sense is Seth will sell as many as people want. It’s not difficult for him to get a ton of low value MS67-69 Modern coins graded quickly by CACG, along with a bunch of straight graded low value Classic coins to mix in!
Steve
He actually can't do that. You need to establish the number available before they go on sale or the odds change.
@ShaunBC5 said:
I hear you, the $100 wasn’t a hard number, I should have just said “comparable cost to the other options” which I know is well over $100. Regardless, the floor should be in the 50% of cost range, which isn’t horrible for a gamble.
Also, I wasn’t saying that you in particular were detesting. There’s a lot about these kinds of things to be detested and a few things to liked.
Gotcha. And, please don't get me wrong. I'm the farthest thing from a fan. I'm just done pooping on something people clearly like, and seem to understand. I arrogantly thought people did not understand the risk/reward of participating in unregulated lotteries.
I was at least partially correct, to the extent people were screaming after they saw what happened with the first VB series. But I was wrong to the extent that VBs continue to sell out, indicating people are just never going to understand. Or, more likely, and as @jmlanzaf has been saying all along, they get it and just don't care, because the thrill of the break supersedes any concerns over being screwed.
So, there is a market for people to get 50-70 cents on the dollar, on average, for the chance for a score, as you are demonstrating. I'm not sure that your chance for a score is the same as others, since distribution is not regulated or overseen by a third party. But, if you don't care about that, I am way past the point of caring on your behalf.
@ShaunBC5 said:
I hear you, the $100 wasn’t a hard number, I should have just said “comparable cost to the other options” which I know is well over $100. Regardless, the floor should be in the 50% of cost range, which isn’t horrible for a gamble.
Also, I wasn’t saying that you in particular were detesting. There’s a lot about these kinds of things to be detested and a few things to liked.
Gotcha. And, please don't get me wrong. I'm the farthest thing from a fan. I'm just done pooping on something people clearly like, and seem to understand. I arrogantly thought people did not understand the risk/reward of participating in unregulated lotteries.
I was at least partially correct, to the extent people were screaming after they saw what happened with the first VB series. But I was wrong to the extent that VBs continue to sell out, indicating people are just never going to understand. Or, more likely, and as @jmlanzaf has been saying all along, they get it and just don't care, because the thrill of the break supersedes any concerns over being screwed.
So, there is a market for people to get 50-70 cents on the dollar, on average, for the chance for a score, as you are demonstrating. I'm not sure that your chance for a score is the same as others, since distribution is not regulated or overseen by a third party. But, if you don't care about that, I am way past the point of caring on your behalf.
Wow... just wow...
Luv ya, brother!
I always knew, deep down, that you two would finally hug it out and put your differences aside. Unlikely friendship stories like this warm my heart ❤️.
So, there is a market for people to get 50-70 cents on the dollar, on average, for the chance for a score, as you are demonstrating. I'm not sure that your chance for a score is the same as others, since distribution is not regulated or overseen by a third party. But, if you don't care about that, I am way past the point of caring on your behalf.
And so the dream begins for those 50-70 cents on the dollar buyers.
@ShaunBC5 said:
I may never play, but I’ve seen way worse games. If a family member wants to spend $100 on me for Christmas and surprise me, this might be a great option. Semi-Guaranteed somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 worth of coins, chance for a big winner, they give me something we can enjoy (the unboxing of) together.
I like the higher floor and the fact that the coins can differentiate themselves as opposed to the label being “rare.”
We’ll see. This is my favorite of the ones I’ve seen.
I don't know how many will be made, or if they will be an ongoing thing that you can purchase any time, but they might sell out before Christmas.
My sense is Seth will sell as many as people want. It’s not difficult for him to get a ton of low value MS67-69 Modern coins graded quickly by CACG, along with a bunch of straight graded low value Classic coins to mix in!
Steve
He actually can't do that. You need to establish the number available before they go on sale or the odds change.
Admittedly, I did not take the time to read the fine print.
Thanks. Steve
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!!!
Comments
Waiting for Legend's "Dreck Chest"
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
Go fish.
https://youtu.be/ldXdnZtTWp8?si=RLBvwsEslRE0GIFl
As many of you know, I’m a big fan of CAC and CACG, but….
Other than novices making errors, why in the world would someone agree to buy a box of assorted unknown CACG graded coins, a mix of random modern and classic coins, BLIND? They can just go to a coin show, or even online to dealers that carry CACG graded coins, and pick out coins that interest them!
This is just a method to unload inventory in a mass way! Other dealers have to wait for collectors to contact them specifically wanting one of their coins. I guess this is a brilliant way to sell a LOT (no pun intended) of mixed modern and classic inventory FAST! P.T. Barnum is jealous!
I also wonder how many repeat buyers there will be? My last wonder is will buyers of these random CACG graded coins who potentially can be entering our hobby be permanently turned off when they go to a local coin dealer to ask what they can sell these for? Instead of getting people to join our wonderful hobby, I fear this will end up turning those people away!
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
This board is not representative m go on WhatNot. People love mystery boxes
I must be on ignore.
Go see @JoeyCoins TouTube threads. Go on whatnot.com. SOME people live mystery boxes and lotteries and they enter them EVERY DAY.
This is not about people filing holes in collections any more than casinos are equivalent to 402ks. People enjoy the gambling aspect.
They also like the social aspect. A lot of these mystery boxes get broken live on a stream. There's dozens of people watching, sharing, congratulating, etc.
You don't have to want to be part of it. But it's really not that hard to understand it if you go watch some of these streams. And they exist in all kinds of collectibles: coins, comic books, trading cards, etc.
Even if the "serious collectors" went away, should I care if I don't make any money on them anyway. As you pointed out, the profit drivers for the big 2 have long been bulk grading of moderns and the corresponding labels. I guarantee they make more on monster boxes of silver eagles than classic coins.
I'd argue they are already leaving and the TPGs don't care. Take a look at the TrueView threads. As you said, profit is much better through mystery boxes and telemarketers. Other services that are important to collectors no longer warrant an investment.
I like the thought that revenue made from mystery boxes and telemarketers trickles down to lower grading costs for everyone, but I'm not sure that is what happens.
Oh, it happens. Just imagine how much it would cost to have a valuable classic coin graded if they weren't grading literally millions of modern coins. The cost of grading would go up by at least a factor of 10, and there would be a lot less competition in the grading space.
It's probably worth keeping in mind that grading was virgin territory when the TPGs got going in the mid '80s, and that by now most classic coins worth grading have been graded. Without an infinite supply of moderns, the business as we know and love it would not exist for so-called serious collectors in 2024.
Hmmm.... What did P.T. Barnum use to say?
Dave
I have avoided making comments on threads like this because in life I have purchased 1 lottery ticket (Didn't like it) and can count the number of trips I have made to a casino on one hand.
On the other hand, at a picnic this week my brother inlaw Mike tried to bet me $20 dollars on when which of two flies would fly away. Different strokes for different people. I am sure someone can come up with a venn diagram that shows an overlap between born gamblers and born coin collectors, but I bet the coin part is secondary. James
There's no such thing as bad publicity. -PT Barnum
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
While this project will be great for Seth with significant volume and hence profits, it will have ZERO impact on present or future grading prices for those of us that have Classic coins graded.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Oy Vey!
...or a Daniel Sedwick "Booty Box"
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
.
.
If it also includes magic tricks, sea monkeys, bb guns and x-ray specs I'm in.
Use a Hypno-Coin and you will have customers for life or at least til they run out of money.
.
.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
No way - you definitely pay $70 and they give you $100 or more of CACG coins.
Turns out there is a Santa Clause in numismatics.
Less downside on the losing boxes means fewer or lower top prizes - a bit different than VB’s approach.
The question isn’t whether Witter will make money (they will), it’s who the target market is and whether the target market will buy the boxes.
I think VB is aimed at newbies and gamblers. Witter seems to be targeting average to advanced collectors given the use of CACG and a more limited downside. Or maybe part of the effort is to educate newer collectors on CACG. It just strikes me as an odd choice to combine the gambling aspect with CACG and fewer/lower top prizes.
I have to ask, what problem is this product solving? How is it making the lives of collectors easier?
Feels like just another marketing gimmick based on an unregulated lottery.
More power to people who like this, but stuff like this makes me wince when I imagine young collectors coming across this at coin shows.
According to the latest issue of Coin World, a MS64 1907 High Relief Wire Edge Double Eagle is going to be part of the festivities, so it most certainly will be another VB style lottery. No lower top prize there!
I remember the black soap,bee in a plastic ice cube, and even ads to buy small monkeys for $19.95 delivered in a box with air holes in it.
And young collectors are probably chuckling at all the old fuddy duddies strolling through the bourse as they play their IG and YT games.
It is not trying to either solve a problem or make your life easier. [How does buying any coin do that?] Is just supposed to be FUN for people who like to play these games. And there are more of them than you think. Spend a couple hours on a weekend surfing around WhatNot.com and you'll find dozens to hundreds of people having fun wrong.
These are all running right now... and that isn't even all of them.
Some people love Sea Monkeys.
Then the vast majority of boxes will be losers. With limited downside and a valuable top prize relative to the ticket price, it takes a lot of losers to pay for that winner.
One of the comments..."How are you planning on shielding the boxes so that distributors can’t x-ray them and buy the good boxes for themselves?"
Yup. Another unregulated lottery. People gonna do what people gonna do. At this point, everyone knows what it is.
If these guys make it less abusive than VB, good for them, and for the people playing. And, if not, more power to Witter for spotting the opportunity and seizing it. I no longer feel sorry for anyone looking for something for nothing, and then getting burned.
Which is why legit lotteries are regulated, and subject to third party audits. No one should expect anything from an unregulated game of chance.
If you watch the video posted below, he very clearly said you will get at least 70% of price guide value, not that you will pay 70% of price guide value. Yet another way over optimistic people are not going to understand exactly how these things work, and will then be disappointed.
Especially when they see the very aggressive retail price guide values these are being benchmarked against. No one is running a charity here. Nor are they claiming to.
Witter is not wholesaling random coins in grab bags. They are unloading crap at very generous retail markups, and getting people to bite with the lure of a potential lottery win, in an unregulated game of chance.
Maybe these coins will be less crappy than the vast majority of VB bullion. Maybe not. TBD, but lots of common modern crap now resides in CACG holders, since that is where the TPGs make their money in 2024. So I wouldn't get too excited just because CACG is the grading service this time around.
Sure, they could make less money, but why should they, given how much people have demonstrated a willingness to pay? People are going to have visions of shiny gold coins dancing in their heads as they plunk down their hard earned cash. Shame on them for expecting a free lunch, and good for Witter for deciding to get in on the action!
I totally missed out on the vaultbox...thing.
I think I'll miss this one as well.
BST transactions: dbldie55, jayPem, 78saen, UltraHighRelief, nibanny, liefgold, FallGuy, lkeigwin, mbogoman, Sandman70gt, keets, joeykoins, ianrussell (@GC), EagleEye, ThePennyLady, GRANDAM, Ilikecolor, Gluggo, okiedude, Voyageur, LJenkins11, fastfreddie, ms70, pursuitofliberty, ZoidMeister,Coin Finder, GotTheBug, edwardjulio, Coinnmore, Nickpatton, Namvet69,...
I may never play, but I’ve seen way worse games. If a family member wants to spend $100 on me for Christmas and surprise me, this might be a great option. Semi-Guaranteed somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 worth of coins, chance for a big winner, they give me something we can enjoy (the unboxing of) together.
I like the higher floor and the fact that the coins can differentiate themselves as opposed to the label being “rare.”
We’ll see. This is my favorite of the ones I’ve seen.
With the proliferation of casinos,sports betting,excuse me wagering, etc am not surprised offerings like this keep popping up. More to come.
I don't know how many will be made, or if they will be an ongoing thing that you can purchase any time, but they might sell out before Christmas.
Young Numismatist • My Toned Coins
Life is roadblocks. Don't let nothing stop you, 'cause we ain't stopping. - DJ Khaled
@hummingbird_coins I hear you, it was just go make a point about the concept and what might get someone like me to jump in on it.
Maybe not “series 1” or whatever they’ll call it, it perhaps one day.
Of course it's your favorite, because it has by far the highest quality coins. Unfortunately, you'll likely need another "0" or so added to the end of your number.
Still interested at $1,000 for at least $500 or so worth of coins? Any family members going to be interested at that price? Because you'll barely be able to cover the box and the slabs for $100.
My sense is Seth will sell as many as people want. It’s not difficult for him to get a ton of low value MS67-69 Modern coins graded quickly by CACG, along with a bunch of straight graded low value Classic coins to mix in!
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Wait, hold on there! Are you saying there is NO Santa Clause in numismatics?!?
@NJCoin in just a few years $500+ may be in range for a family member or two, and I might still be just as interested as I am now (not very, but would choose this one over the others).
I’m not endorsing anyone buying this box, but I know they will and I feel there is less to detest here than other places.
Whatever. I'm neither detesting nor passing judgment this time around.
I was just pointing out that you are dreaming if you think you are going to get a chance to play for $100. Or even $500.
You said you thought it would be interesting at $100, with a semi-guarantee of at least $50 in return, and a shot at a big score. I just told you to put a "0" on the end of those numbers to get yourself and your relatives in the neighborhood, because you won't be able to buy anything other than an empty box with cracked out slabs for anything close to $100. Other than, of course, scrub coins once boxes are opened.
I hear you, the $100 wasn’t a hard number, I should have just said “comparable cost to the other options” which I know is well over $100. Regardless, the floor should be in the 50% of cost range, which isn’t horrible for a gamble.
Also, I wasn’t saying that you in particular were detesting. There’s a lot about these kinds of things to be detested and a few things to liked.
Gotcha. And, please don't get me wrong. I'm the farthest thing from a fan. I'm just done pooping on something people clearly like, and seem to understand. I arrogantly thought people did not understand the risk/reward of participating in unregulated lotteries.
I was at least partially correct, to the extent people were screaming after they saw what happened with the first VB series. But I was wrong to the extent that VBs continue to sell out, indicating people are just never going to understand. Or, more likely, and as @jmlanzaf has been saying all along, they get it and just don't care, because the thrill of the break supersedes any concerns over being screwed.
So, there is a market for people to get 50-70 cents on the dollar, on average, for the chance for a score, as you are demonstrating. I'm not sure that your chance for a score is the same as others, since distribution is not regulated or overseen by a third party. But, if you don't care about that, I am way past the point of caring on your behalf.
New website: Groovycoins.com Capped Bust Half Dime registry set: Bikergeek CBHD LM Set
He actually can't do that. You need to establish the number available before they go on sale or the odds change.
Wow... just wow...
Luv ya, brother!
I always knew, deep down, that you two would finally hug it out and put your differences aside. Unlikely friendship stories like this warm my heart ❤️.
Founder- Peak Rarities
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So, there is a market for people to get 50-70 cents on the dollar, on average, for the chance for a score, as you are demonstrating. I'm not sure that your chance for a score is the same as others, since distribution is not regulated or overseen by a third party. But, if you don't care about that, I am way past the point of caring on your behalf.
And so the dream begins for those 50-70 cents on the dollar buyers.
Admittedly, I did not take the time to read the fine print.
Thanks. Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996