We've All Heard Of The 1909-S-VDB Since We Were Kids
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@PipestonePete 's recent thread sparked my interest and question. I'm sure this has been discussed here before but I couldn't find anything.
Since we were kids, we've all heard of the 09-S-VDB I did a quick search of all 3 TPG'ers pop reports. Adding up all grades (RD/RB/BR), shows a ruff total of about 41,000 graded.
That is however, nowhere near the 484,000 minted. I'm sure I'm missing something here but where the heck are all the other raw 443,000 S-VDB's?? Sitting in collections? Do dealers have them? Hoarded somewhere? Hiding in a fed bank vault somewhere?
This also seems to be the case with many other major key dates, i.e. 16-D Merc & 1916 Standing Liberty Quarter.
There's probably a simple explanation. Your thoughts...
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Comments
That's nearly a 10% survival rate, which does seem low for a first year of issue coin as well known and saved as the 09-s vdb. I have no idea what the survival rate is but it's probably not over 20% either. Something in between I think.
I have a raw and a slabbed 1909 S VDB. Maybe all the missing ones are in albums and folders.
My current registry sets:
20th Century Type Set
Virtual DANSCO 7070
Slabbed IHC set - Missing the Anacs Slabbed coins
There never seems to be a lack of them for sale, slabbed or unslabbed. What percentage would you guess that have been lost/destroyed?
"When they can't find anything wrong with you, they create it!"
I think the survival rate is much higher. There's still a lot of raw ones. Local dealer bought a hoard of 29 raw ones this year. All came back good.
People on this forum constantly underestimate how many raw collectors are out there. Most estates I see are still raw.
Also, in these days of minimal circulation it's easy to forget just how quickly coins wore out when they were being actively used in commerce. I wouldn't be surprised if half the mintage was worn flat by 1920.
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Mike
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I have my grandfather's in a 2x2 with his handwriting. It's an EF-40.
Picked this one up raw back in 1992 from a trusted dealer. I had it slabbed one or two years later. No intention of ever selling.
So, it seems to me that a large portion of the raw coins are probably stored away long term. It is also possible that many people have inherited these coins, but have no knowledge of the value. So, they languish in drawers or storage places.
Think ... hoard the keys. The hoarders have been working on the 1909-S VDB for many decades. Many participants in this board greatly overestimate the percentage of surviving coins that have been slabbed. Most are probably still raw. Slabbing costs money and that is money the hoarders don't want to spend.
From PCGS Coinfacts.
"Rare" is overused, though key dates are perenially popular in higher grades. I can think of a lot of tough coins and dates, for example $10 gold coins from the 1870s and other issues that were minted in small numbers where there is very strong interest when they come up.
I have found the "Coin Facts" survival rates to run a bit on the low side. Many other, rarer coins are more common than their numbers would seem to indicate.
Still, the survival rates for most all regular issue coins are far below the mintages. A very liberal estimate would say that 25% of the 484,000, 1909-S-VDB cents have survived. That would be 121,000 coins. Among that group would be pieces with environmental issues, holed and otherwise damaged pieces that most collectors would avoid.
I don't think that the number of surviving 1909-S-VDB cents is anywhere near that. I think it's more like 60 to 70 thousand.
Many early American coins have a survival rate of around 1 to 2 percent. If there is a small hoard, you might double that amount. That's it. As I said, there are pieces among that group that many collectors would reject. That's why early U.S. coins are hardly ever "common."
I know for sure that coinfacts estimates are not accurate for my collecting area, seated quarters, so I don't really trust them on other series.
Likely lots of low grades and culls ungraded in albums.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
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Sorry for posting bad info, I thought PCGS would be close, so sorry.
Factual statistics and speculation adds to the interesting and intriguing history of this coin and many like it.
I'm just wondering, (throwing another wrench into the works) adding more speculation or a hypothetical to this story... I can't think of another example at the moment (I believe it's happened before), but what if an original mint bag of 09-S-VDB's showed up an auction somewhere... Would the values of ours plummet?
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
I don't know that it's bad. I was just pointing out I'm skeptical of coinfacts estimates. I agree with @BillJones The total number of survivors is probably 70k or so.
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Hopefully, PCGS will see this and change their #s from 50,000 to 70,000....thanks.
There are a lot of them out there in the ground, for one thing. I never dug an S-VDB while detecting, but did dig a few P-VDBs. You can bet that a lot of 'em hit the dirt out West, and stayed lost.
Too many people overestimate the importance of pop reports. I agree with @jmlanzaf that there are a LOT more raw examples out there than people think. TPGs are not a panacea. Given that this is a first year coin and it was known that San Francisco had anemic mintages at that time, I think even a 25% survival rate might be conservative.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
I have two, both raw, both in albums. I'd imagine there are a lot of circulated examples in albums that never hit the pop report.
Sean Reynolds
"Keep in mind that most of what passes as numismatic information is no more than tested opinion at best, and marketing blather at worst. However, I try to choose my words carefully, since I know that you guys are always watching." - Joe O'Connor
Quite a few a buried in the ground. I found one in 1991 with my metal detector. Wish I still had it!
Doug
Glad I could help.
My guess is there are quite a few stashed away in grandpa’s and grandma’s closets just waiting to be inherited and discovered some day. Although they may have some great stuff that will pop up in the future, many of these folks are the ones buying overpriced silver and coins on home shopping channels….not realizing the items they are getting are much cheaper on the open market…. They also have no idea what a TPG is nor how to submit a coin, nor if their coins are even valuable. They just tried to fill their albums and jars full of coins and whatever they found just got stowed away for a lifetime….😉
The search actually worked. Found it. Maybe some are/were in here.
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/819143/my-wheat-cents-hoard
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https://youtube.com/watch?v=D0FPxuQv2ns - Ruby Starr (from 'Go Jim Dandy') Maybe I'm Amazed
RLJ 1958 - 2023
I currently own a PCGS F-15, and I used to have a Die#3 that I cashed in at my local Dealer.
There are still a lot of uncertified coins out there unaccounted for in sets or in 2X2's. The unaccounted ones are probably lost to the ages.
I have seen a post about one that was pulled out of the ground by a metal detector.
Pete
I bought one for my uncle at the ANA this summer. NGC au55 for $1500! It's the only one I've handled in maybe 10 years. I have just a very small amount of interest in such a common coin.
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
Stop and think of how many people kept large jars of pennies. Everyone I knew in the 60's had a jar, my grandfather had two pickle jars full. My bro-in-law asked for them and was given them in 1978. I have 2 15# cannisters from change starting when I got out of the service in 72. Never went through them, my eyes couldn't deal with it. I believe many are in drawers, jars, boxes that may never be found.
Jim
When a man who is honestly mistaken hears the truth, he will either quit being mistaken or cease to be honest....Abraham Lincoln
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.....Mark Twain
I bought a 1909-S-VDB to complete the Lincoln Cent set I started as a child. I bought it 1982, and it came with ANACS papers in the days before slabs. ANACS graded it VF-20. NGC graded it EF-40, which is accurate.
No doubt TPG pop reports are inflated due to many crack outs and resubmissions. Thus the actual number of S-VDBs in slabs is probably much lower than 41,000
Wait a minute, let me understand this. So you're saying people have broken out S-VDB's from slabs. That would be the last thing I would ever do. Unless I was a grader and I was a 100% sure the coin would come back higher. But even if people were doing that, the numbers of graded coin would increase not decrease.
EDIT: I re-read your post. I think you're right. I misunderstood your post.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Its a pretty darn common coin and an uncommon price due to nonstop hype
That's true of most 20th century keys. However, demand is at least a important as supply. You could argue that the semi-keys and even common coins suffer from the same "hype" created by the need to fill date/MM sets. If everyone was a type collector, demand would dry up for virtually all 20th century coins and most of the late 19th century.
FWIW that is a nice looking example!
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Those of you that have them raw sitting in albums or folders.... I'm assuming you're confident they are genuine, correct?
If an average collector has a raw one in there collection, they're knowledgeable enough to understand it's significance. Why wouldn't they submit it?
I'm assuming (and I could be wrong) most 09-S-VDB's are bought and sold slabbed. Here's a good question: How many of you dealers out there have raw 09-S-VDB's in your inventory?
There just seems to be so many unaccounted for after 115 years.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
I have only owned one in 63 years of numismatics and that was decades ago.
I bought my one example raw with rim damage but still decided to slab it just to be sure it was the real deal.
I too have owned ONE.
BOR-ing......
I’ve been tempted to put one in my type set in lieu of the Philly VDB. I sold my last SVDB when I sold my Lincolns seven years ago. Just hate to admit I should have held it out and price has gone up quite a bit. Lack of foresight.
I'll go one further. You can readily find a 16 P SLQ in any grade. I think 15 years ago at a Platinum Night sale, Heritage had 17 of them up for bid.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
My first 09-S VDB was purchased raw from my local B&M dealer and we sent it to ANACS... came back straight graded XF40. My second was purchased already slabbed... seemed like my local shop in AZ would get these in on a regular basis...
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Get these in on a regular basis... Slabbed?
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
No... raw, then turn around and have them holdered... ANACS at the time (early 2000s)
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
Okay, thanks @lkenefic !
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
My only one I could afford.
In my Dansco set right now.
peacockcoins
Most all the S-VDB holes we see in albums and folders are empty. Congrats!
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Do those estimated slabbed numbers include problem coins also? The PCGS numbers appear to only include straight graded. If not, do they show up anywhere on any services pop reports?
What are the 3 services mentioned? Does that include ANACS or ICG? Wonder how many still in obsolete slabs like PCI or ANACS papers. Then add the raw coins on top of that.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
I think ANACS is the only grading service that lists their detailed slabs.
I searched NGC, PCGS, ANACS, IGC, SEGS, PCI and VSS pop reports. I pulled every grade I could find. The total numbers don't come close to the 484k minted!
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
I am one of those people. I have my Lincolns in an Intercept Shield album. Since it was authenticated when I bought it, I have no worries that it would grade again if I needed it to be. And since it only graded MS63 BN, I have no doubt that it would grade that or higher, if I needed to grade it.
I consider myself an end consumer, and grading and slabbing are no more than the packaging the coin arrives in.