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Current Price Levels of High End Vintage…

mintonlyplsmintonlypls Posts: 1,680 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited December 18, 2023 1:33PM in Trading Cards & Memorabilia Forum

I would like input or observation of current price levels for high end (8 or higher), vintage sportscards (earlier than 1980) relative to pre-COVID levels.

I followed a 1955 Koufax RC PSA-9 on the recently concluded Golden Elite Auction. It sold for $244,000. The last known sales were in 2021 at $375,000. So…it is down approximately 33%. However…it is up approximately 2x since pre-COVID levels. In the last decade (since 2013)…the price of this card in a PSA-9 is up 6x! Pretty impressive…

Thoughts on other high end vintage trends?

mint_only_pls
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Comments

  • olb31olb31 Posts: 2,826 ✭✭✭✭✭

    8's are down some from 2 years ago. 9's are holding their own. 10's probably up, but there aren't very many.

    Work hard and you will succeed!!
  • BBBrkrrBBBrkrr Posts: 885 ✭✭✭✭✭

    As of a couple years ago I've focused only on 50-80 and there's still a lot of action on all of it and in every grade. Kind of surprising.

    Things have dropped but not to where they were prior to Covid. I'm fine with that and a consistent price increase over time than big, huge jumps.

  • The PSA submission data someone posted are pretty telling. Buy high end vintage and you'll be alright in the long run.

  • CakesCakes Posts: 3,429 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I follow Jim Brown and his 58 Topps PSA 7 Rookie has gone from 7K earlier this year to 5K currently. What's surprising is his death hasn't been mentioned much. Butkus had more coverage.

    Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.

    Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
  • KendallCatKendallCat Posts: 2,959 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @mintonlypls said:
    I would like input or observation of current price levels for high end (8 or higher), vintage sportscards (earlier than 1980) relative to pre-COVID levels.

    I followed a 1955 Koufax RC PSA-9 on the recently concluded Golden Elite Auction. It sold for $244,000. The last known sales were in 2021 at $375,000. So…it is down approximately 33%. However…it is up approximately 2x since pre-COVID levels. In the last decade (since 2013)…the price of this card in a PSA-9 is up 6x! Pretty impressive…

    Thoughts on other high end vintage trends?

    Monte

    I think you need a few more data points on the Koufax to get a more accurate price on the PSA 9’s. Looks like the last 3-5 sold in the high $300k range and the Goldin was around $280k with hammer. Possibly a soft example or maybe not a lot of people knew about the auction. The 55 Koufax has a huge spread between 8’s at around $25-30k and 9’s at $375k.

    Craig On the Carew RC are you sure you meant PSA 9 or PSA 8? PSA 9’s are around $15k now so good for you if you grabbed one for $1500.

  • BBBrkrrBBBrkrr Posts: 885 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @craig44 said:
    I picked up a 67 Carew in PSA 9 pre covid for around $1500. I just checked and the last few sold were between 2.1k and 2.4k I dont recall what their all time covid high was.

    Man, I can't even because I'm so jealous...

    Awesome for you!

  • craig44craig44 Posts: 10,224 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @KendallCat said:

    @mintonlypls said:
    I would like input or observation of current price levels for high end (8 or higher), vintage sportscards (earlier than 1980) relative to pre-COVID levels.

    I followed a 1955 Koufax RC PSA-9 on the recently concluded Golden Elite Auction. It sold for $244,000. The last known sales were in 2021 at $375,000. So…it is down approximately 33%. However…it is up approximately 2x since pre-COVID levels. In the last decade (since 2013)…the price of this card in a PSA-9 is up 6x! Pretty impressive…

    Thoughts on other high end vintage trends?

    Monte

    I think you need a few more data points on the Koufax to get a more accurate price on the PSA 9’s. Looks like the last 3-5 sold in the high $300k range and the Goldin was around $280k with hammer. Possibly a soft example or maybe not a lot of people knew about the auction. The 55 Koufax has a huge spread between 8’s at around $25-30k and 9’s at $375k.

    Craig On the Carew RC are you sure you meant PSA 9 or PSA 8? PSA 9’s are around $15k now so good for you if you grabbed one for $1500.

    sorry, correction. I meant psa 8

    George Brett, Bobby Orr and Terry Bradshaw.

  • mintonlyplsmintonlypls Posts: 1,680 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 5, 2023 11:15AM

    W/Buyer's Premium (22%)...buyer paid $244,000 for the 1955 Koufax RC PSA-9. I agree that one data point makes it statistically insignificant. I wasn't trying to do a time series analysis ; )

    mint_only_pls
  • 80sOPC80sOPC Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 5, 2023 10:38AM

    Crazy how much BP eats into a sellers profits. Suspect some of the BP was shared with the seller but 22% on 240k nets out below 200k.

  • mintonlyplsmintonlypls Posts: 1,680 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Before buyer’s premium of 22%…the final bid price was $200,000.

    mint_only_pls
  • 80sOPC80sOPC Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My bad, thought I read 240 was final hammer.

  • Nathaniel1960Nathaniel1960 Posts: 2,301 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Could be worse / you could have gone long on Coby White Prizm RCs. Down 95 percent from ATH.

    Kiss me once, shame on you.
    Kiss me twice.....let's party.
  • GrooGroo Posts: 38 ✭✭

    Card by card and era by era basis of course, but there is still plenty of room for continued downward fall

  • The PSA submission data someone posted are pretty telling. Buy high end vintage and you'll be alright in the long run.

    Can someone please include the link for this? I don't remember reading about it. Thank you

  • ndleondleo Posts: 4,038 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Cakes said:
    I follow Jim Brown and his 58 Topps PSA 7 Rookie has gone from 7K earlier this year to 5K currently. What's surprising is his death hasn't been mentioned much. Butkus had more coverage.

    That seems odd for that card to drop that much. I do know that the centering is all over the map on that card. Of all of the vintage FB, I would think he is one of the bluest blue chip vintage cards.

    Mike
  • Whatever link shows the discussion that the OP referenced.

    I appreciate your help Ron.

  • stwainfanstwainfan Posts: 1,479 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Is the mid to low grade stuff dropping in price?

    I collect hall of fame rookie cards, https://www.instagram.com/stwainfan/

  • 19591959 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭

    Like a rock.

  • sayheywyosayheywyo Posts: 431 ✭✭✭

    High end, relative to pre-covid are holding their own for goat like players (Mantle, Aaron, Mays). If we're talking purchases made 10+ years ago, which I think many of us have, we are good. I collected Mays: down 27% from all-time highs, up 8x from purchase prices. I think the Koufax in question has more to do with the auction house----- Golden vs Heritage?

  • 80sOPC80sOPC Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The PSA prices pages for Brown are not resolving right now, but that card in an 8 is 50% of all time highs and in free-fall. Another card on its way to giving back most Covid gains:

    https://www.psacard.com/auctionprices/football-cards/1958-topps/jim-brown/summary/265856

    @ndleo said:

    @Cakes said:
    I follow Jim Brown and his 58 Topps PSA 7 Rookie has gone from 7K earlier this year to 5K currently. What's surprising is his death hasn't been mentioned much. Butkus had more coverage.

    That seems odd for that card to drop that much. I do know that the centering is all over the map on that card. Of all of the vintage FB, I would think he is one of the bluest blue chip vintage cards.

  • olb31olb31 Posts: 2,826 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The auction house should set parame> @stwainfan said:

    Is the mid to low grade stuff dropping in price?

    I sold 1968 psa 4 clemente for $150 about a year ago. I have one listed now for $95 Perfect centering (sgc 4), nothing.

    Work hard and you will succeed!!
  • brad31brad31 Posts: 2,475 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 6, 2023 1:45PM

    My observations:

    9s have held better than 8s.

    Football and Basketball have dropped much more than baseball.

    For baseball Rookie cards have dropped more than other cards and 2nd year cards (outside the ‘52 Mantle) have held well.

    There is much more distinction between cards within the grade. While a 7 (not an 8 or a 9) REA had two Aaron rookies in the last auction with a big difference in price based on the quality.

    SGC has closed the gap quite a bit and a really strong SGC now beats a weak for the grade PSA.

  • BBBrkrrBBBrkrr Posts: 885 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @brad31 said:
    My observations:

    9s have held better than 8s.

    Football and Basketball have dropped much more than baseball.

    For baseball Rookie cards have dropped more than other cards and 2nd year cards (outside the ‘52 Mantle) have held well.

    There is much more distinction between cards within the grade. While not a 7 REA had two Aaron rookies in the last auction with a big difference in price based on the quality.

    SGC has closed the gap quite a bit and a really strong SGC now beats a weak for the grade PSA.

    I agree on this. I don't do any basketball but dabble in football (and only 70s). They've definitely come down quite a bit. Things are very much more affordable, and even in the higher grades.

  • paleocardspaleocards Posts: 917 ✭✭✭✭

    Here's some data. I've tracked 689 sales of the '68 Topps Ryan RC in PSA 8 since I bought mine at the 2009 National for $900.

    2009 Avg: $1,050.83
    2010 Avg: $1,051.60
    2011 Avg: $1,160.73
    2012 Avg: $1,341.46
    2013 Avg: $1,427.74
    2014 Avg: $2,205.17
    2015 Avg: $3,036.75
    2016 Avg: $5,176.22
    2017 Avg: $3,522.62
    2018 Avg: $3,211.52
    2019 Avg: $3,181.65
    2020 Avg: $4,334.60
    2021 Avg: $8,975.25
    2022 Avg: $7,837.15
    2023 Avg: $8,294.12

    I have more examples like this (e.g. PSA 7 '55 Koufax RC, PSA 8 '59 Gibby RC) if anyone's interested.

  • 80sOPC80sOPC Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭✭✭

    When I see these threads, I wonder why so few people seem to know that PSA tracks auction prices and has for a while. Price history for all grades is posted and available. According to all cards I’ve look at, blue chips, widely traded, everything is off ATH’s by 30-50%. Some exceptions I’m sure but the trend is very clear.

  • JoeBanzaiJoeBanzai Posts: 11,095 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @paleocards said:
    Here's some data. I've tracked 689 sales of the '68 Topps Ryan RC in PSA 8 since I bought mine at the 2009 National for $900.

    2009 Avg: $1,050.83
    2010 Avg: $1,051.60
    2011 Avg: $1,160.73
    2012 Avg: $1,341.46
    2013 Avg: $1,427.74
    2014 Avg: $2,205.17
    2015 Avg: $3,036.75
    2016 Avg: $5,176.22
    2017 Avg: $3,522.62
    2018 Avg: $3,211.52
    2019 Avg: $3,181.65
    2020 Avg: $4,334.60
    2021 Avg: $8,975.25
    2022 Avg: $7,837.15
    2023 Avg: $8,294.12

    I have more examples like this (e.g. PSA 7 '55 Koufax RC, PSA 8 '59 Gibby RC) if anyone's interested.

    GREAT information!

    However, guys like Ryan, Mantle, Clemente and Koufax are not the guys you want to be looking at if your looking for general pricing trends.
    Those 4, and maybe a few others, seem to sell for way more than other HOF players.

    2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
  • olb31olb31 Posts: 2,826 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My 1982 topps shooty babbitt has held on. It was worth 1 cent in 1982 and now it's worth 1/2 cent. LOL!!!

    Work hard and you will succeed!!
  • Nathaniel1960Nathaniel1960 Posts: 2,301 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I bought a Jerry Rice PSA 7 centered during COVID for $140 and was thrilled. They go for less than half that these days.

    Kiss me once, shame on you.
    Kiss me twice.....let's party.
  • thedutymon11thedutymon11 Posts: 624 ✭✭✭✭

    @Nathaniel1960 said:
    I bought a Jerry Rice PSA 7 centered during COVID for $140 and was thrilled. They go for less than half that these days.

    Just like everything I touch...Down to the Exits! I pulled/Bought a 8 a year ago, couldn't give it away!

    YeeHaw!

    Neil

  • HarnessracingHarnessracing Posts: 275 ✭✭✭
    edited December 6, 2023 8:13PM

    1980 Topps Henderson Rookies in 8 and 9 have dropped like an anchor was tied to it

  • olb31olb31 Posts: 2,826 ✭✭✭✭✭

    alot of the ones dropping really fast are the ones that have huge pop numbers. The Jerry Rice cards someone was talking about. There are 10,000 psa 7's. 13,500 psa 8's. and so on. Just way to many. The ones to have are the 8.5's and up the rest are to populated. It's a great card, but.

    Henderson the same way. Murray the same way. Just way too many produced. 2168 PSA 9's of henderson. Wow.

    Now the high grades of the superstars should have decent value but it may take another 10 years to get back where they were.

    Work hard and you will succeed!!
  • sayheywyosayheywyo Posts: 431 ✭✭✭

    Speaking football----- the goat, Tom Brady cards have not been immune from 50% drops from covid era prices. The popular (since he's in a Pats uniform) Bowman Chrome & Bowman are good examples of big drops. Chrome pop=1146, 24% gem rate. Regular Bowman pop=466, 7% gem rate. High dollar SP Authentic down also......

  • craig44craig44 Posts: 10,224 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @paleocards said:
    Here's some data. I've tracked 689 sales of the '68 Topps Ryan RC in PSA 8 since I bought mine at the 2009 National for $900.

    2009 Avg: $1,050.83
    2010 Avg: $1,051.60
    2011 Avg: $1,160.73
    2012 Avg: $1,341.46
    2013 Avg: $1,427.74
    2014 Avg: $2,205.17
    2015 Avg: $3,036.75
    2016 Avg: $5,176.22
    2017 Avg: $3,522.62
    2018 Avg: $3,211.52
    2019 Avg: $3,181.65
    2020 Avg: $4,334.60
    2021 Avg: $8,975.25
    2022 Avg: $7,837.15
    2023 Avg: $8,294.12

    I have more examples like this (e.g. PSA 7 '55 Koufax RC, PSA 8 '59 Gibby RC) if anyone's interested.

    I remember that big spike in 2016. that was the year of the mysterious "buyers group" if I remember correctly.

    George Brett, Bobby Orr and Terry Bradshaw.

  • craig44craig44 Posts: 10,224 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @sayheywyo said:
    Speaking football----- the goat, Tom Brady cards have not been immune from 50% drops from covid era prices. The popular (since he's in a Pats uniform) Bowman Chrome & Bowman are good examples of big drops. Chrome pop=1146, 24% gem rate. Regular Bowman pop=466, 7% gem rate. High dollar SP Authentic down also......

    Contenders are also way down. but still up from pre covid.

    George Brett, Bobby Orr and Terry Bradshaw.

  • sayheywyosayheywyo Posts: 431 ✭✭✭

    @olb31 said:
    Inflation. 2023 is going to be the third year in a row of 4% or higher inflation. Keep in mind the calculation of the CPI was changed in 2021 to minimize this number. So the real CPI could be much higher. The last time we had three years in a row of CPI 4% and above was 1980 -1982. This is my opinion is hurting every sector of life (Grocery, Gas, Rent, Mortgages, Housing, clothing, etc). so the people who have to choose between buying cards and just plain living have to make tough decisions.

    Until we see a "REAL" change in this sector, card buying and card prices are going to be down. Think of this, everyday prices of consumer goods are up 19% in the last 2 1/2 years, the markets are down about 8%. that's a 27% percent swing in the wrong direction for millions of americans. S0 $100 of cash for the consumer in April of 2021 is now worth $73.

    Really, look at CPI from 1988-1991. Don't know what markets you're talking about in the last 2 1/2 years but I'm up just over 3% in a pretty safe fund and almost 10% in an aggressive fund which includes a 17% loss in 2022 and not a nickel added to it since I'm retired. Inflation hurts lower income and fixed income folks the most as discretionary spending may no longer be an option. Cards and grading are definitely not a necessity.

  • olb31olb31 Posts: 2,826 ✭✭✭✭✭

    sayheywyo

    I reviewed all the yearly CPI numbers from 1913 - 2023. There is a list you can google that has all the numbers. I didn't make them up. The stock number was taken strictly at the high of the NYSE until today. it's around 2,000 points lower. So the 8% could be 7%. But just plain living expenses have mushroomed. Since you are retired you may not realize how much housing and rent have gone up. the median income of my hometown is around 45k for a family. decent single bedroom apartments are $1,250 per month.

    I'm not trying to be political, I'm just calling like I see it. And this would impact the newer collectors and/or the younger collectors and quite possible the older/retired collectors depending on their 401k. Yeah if you have a decent job and the wife works and does well, then it probably doesn't effect you as much.

    Work hard and you will succeed!!
  • @olb31 said:
    Inflation. 2023 is going to be the third year in a row of 4% or higher inflation. Keep in mind the calculation of the CPI was changed in 2021 to minimize this number. So the real CPI could be much higher. The last time we had three years in a row of CPI 4% and above was 1980 -1982. This is my opinion is hurting every sector of life (Grocery, Gas, Rent, Mortgages, Housing, clothing, etc). so the people who have to choose between buying cards and just plain living have to make tough decisions.

    Until we see a "REAL" change in this sector, card buying and card prices are going to be down. Think of this, everyday prices of consumer goods are up 19% in the last 2 1/2 years, the markets are down about 8%. that's a 27% percent swing in the wrong direction for millions of americans. S0 $100 of cash for the consumer in April of 2021 is now worth $73.

    I think the way this plays out in cards is that it doesn't affect the buyer. who regularly buys $1K+ cards but it does affect the marginal buyers which is what is needed to keep prices moving. if it ever gets under control, the marginal buyers come back and there should be a reasonable price appreciation instead of declines

  • stwainfanstwainfan Posts: 1,479 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Even some more modern cards are down. The 2008 Topps Kershaw is down a good amount from September.

    I collect hall of fame rookie cards, https://www.instagram.com/stwainfan/

  • BLUEJAYWAYBLUEJAYWAY Posts: 7,783 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Mike Trout update RC is down. But I think the reason has more to do with his injuries resulting in his playing less. But negative economic news probably figures in there somewhere as well.

    Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
  • 1948_Swell_Robinson1948_Swell_Robinson Posts: 1,567 ✭✭✭✭

    1939 Play Ball Ted Williams: A very nicely centered PSA 6.5 sold for $14,500 in Spring of 2021 at REA.

    Williams RC was said to be on a downward trajectory around this time last year and a gorgeous perfectly centered PSA 5 Williams sold for $7,500 in the 2022 Fall REA auction.

    So I'm in on a perfectly centered PSA 5 at Heritage last month with those Covid price points in mind, and the "sky" is falling sentiment we are hearing. It sold for $18,000. I was at least happy the price was already high before extended bidding and i didn't bother staying up late.

    I have noticed similar dips in other cards as well and I was waiting to see if they would fall further...only to see a rebound in them.

    Moral of the story for me...if I see a difficult card I want and have been looking for, go get it, because a depression in price could simply be a buying opportunity as opposed to a negative trend, and it stinks kicking oneself for passing one up.

    IMO, This only works for difficult cards because a true 'rarity' such as any 1920's Ruth card(regardless of condition) or a centered presentable Williams rookie card really are actual rarities, as opposed to an artificial rarity of a PSA 10 Upper Deck Griffey RC that aren't any different than a PSA 9 Griffey RC of which there are 40,000 examples, because there are less than 100 of those Ruth's and less than 100 of those centered Williams RC and those trends are little harder to maintain and easier to be bought up if they do drop in price.

  • 80sOPC80sOPC Posts: 1,185 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 9, 2023 11:08AM

    Like any investment it depends on when you got in, and your cost to get out. Which can be quite high in the case of sports cards.

    I can sell 50k of the SP500 - which is up nearly 20% YTD - Monday at market open for 9 bucks. 50k in cards can cost 5-10k depending on what you have and take 90-120 days if using an auction house.

  • 82FootballWaxMemorys82FootballWaxMemorys Posts: 1,255 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @80sOPC said:
    Like any investment it depends on when you got in, and your cost to get out. Which can be quite high in the case of sports cards.

    I can sell 50k of the SP500 - which is up nearly 20% YTD - Monday at market open for 9 bucks. 50k in cards can cost 5-10k depending on what you have and take 90-120 days if using an auction house.

    Yep. There are reasons Buffet and the like don't have Trading Card holdings.

    Unless otherwise specified my posts represent only my opinion, not fact.

This discussion has been closed.