@dcarr said:
At the university I went to, the Business School and the Engineering School were next to each other.
The Business School was the refuge for the students who couldn't cut it in the Engineering School.
How was your liberal arts school?
I didn't go there much (fortunately). For my engineering degree I had to take a couple token "humanities" classes. That was the University policy, so as to produce "well-rounded" engineers. One such class was about the study of "social stratification". I only took it because it fit my schedule. The class was about how and why societies stratify into different levels of education, standard of living, opportunities, "priviledge", etc. I could sum up the entire class with one question. As usual, the class met as a type of round-table discussion. The typical refrain from other students was that it wasn't fair how societies operated. One time, when it was my turn to comment, I pointed out that I was the only male in the class, but for 95% of my engineering classes there was not even a single woman in the entire class. I stated that engineers basically run the world and why is that all you other students in this class didn't go into engineering instead of liberal arts ? Nobody had an answer, but that illustrated the situation better than any of the class curriculum.
PS:
Not once did I ever see a student switch to the Engineering School from the Business School or from Liberal Arts.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
I doubt any engineering school dropouts are going to try and cut it in the hard-ass world of finance and investment management. They may try another field.
Totally different environments: one is laid back, the other you are judged and scored every day.
You would be wrong. I knew quite a few people that switched from the engineering school to the business school to study finance and other business activities.
Because they wanted to use calculus to build fortunes, not rockets.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
I doubt any engineering school dropouts are going to try and cut it in the hard-ass world of finance and investment management. They may try another field.
Totally different environments: one is laid back, the other you are judged and scored every day.
You would be wrong. I knew quite a few people that switched from the engineering school to the business school to study finance and other business activities.
Because they wanted to use calculus to build fortunes, not rockets.
.
No, that was not the case.
It was because the mathematically-intensive classes (such as calculus) were too hard for them.
The business school didn't require (or even offer) calculus.
But note that the Engineering School did offer some very advanced courses related to economics (such as "game theory" and "operations research").
@GoldFinger1969 said:
I doubt any engineering school dropouts are going to try and cut it in the hard-ass world of finance and investment management. They may try another field.
Totally different environments: one is laid back, the other you are judged and scored every day.
You would be wrong. I knew quite a few people that switched from the engineering school to the business school to study finance and other business activities.
Because they wanted to use calculus to build fortunes, not rockets.
.
No, that was not the case.
It was because the mathematically-intensive classes (such as calculus) were too hard for them.
The business school didn't require (or even offer) calculus.
My business school, my kids' business school and I'm sure Goldfinger's business school offered and required calculus.
Both disciplines require a high proficiency in math.
The difference is that engineers while they understand the concept of imaginary numbers, they don’t get to produce imaginary assets out of nothing via rehypothecation or fractional reserve banking.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
So cohodk and GoldFinger1969 both took (and passed) calculus in their business school ?
I'm skeptical.
But I'm not surprised to learn that the two most strident supporters (on this forum) of the financial system status quo both earn their livings from it.
But I'm not surprised to learn that the two most strident supporters (on this forum) of the financial system status quo both earn their livings from it.
Status quo bout to go.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@dcarr said:
So cohodk and GoldFinger1969 both took (and passed) calculus in their business school ?
I'm skeptical.
But I'm not surprised to learn that the two most strident supporters (on this forum) of the financial system status quo both earn their livings from it.
@dcarr said:
So cohodk and GoldFinger1969 both took (and passed) calculus in their business school ?
I'm skeptical.
But I'm not surprised to learn that the two most strident supporters (on this forum) of the financial system status quo both earn their livings from it.
@dcarr said:
So cohodk and GoldFinger1969 both took (and passed) calculus in their business school ?
I'm skeptical.
But I'm not surprised to learn that the two most strident supporters (on this forum) of the financial system status quo both earn their livings from it.
Why would you be skeptical?
Was it too difficult for you?
.
Did you take (and pass) calculus ?
GoldFinger1969 apparently did not take calculus as you had postulated.
Let me join the speculation about Goldfinger1969s math background. 😃
I assume he has studied calculus. In any case, unless someone finds calculus pretty easy, they will struggle on the CFA exams, which involve mathematical concepts far more sophisticated than what is found in a typical college calculus course,
Calculus had to have been added to Penn State’s business finance curriculum as an elective sometime during the late eighties - whenever it was that automated trading by large institutions became predominant.
Penn State staying current, I suppose.
Using calculus to build financial fortunes (with leverage and derivatives - as coho implies…). All the more reason to AVOID paper contracts of financial assets.
All the more reason to stick with physical assets while the manipulators do their thing with programmed trading based on HFT.
The financial system isn’t designed to be fair, honest or helpful to normal working people. It’s only there to benefit the finance industry. Let’s be real about it.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
don't computers make calculus obsolete? One would fair better taking a class in Microsoft Excel.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb asked "don't computers make calculus obsolete? One would fair better taking a class in Microsoft Excel."
It's a great question. Regarding the calculus being obsolete part I'd say "sort of, but knowing the language of calculus is still useful for students of quantitative finance". As you suggest, even when a continuous process is hypothesized, the solutions will virtually always be derived through numerical methods (computer simulation). But, a knowledge of calculus can still be useful for quants who are trying to think about and frame a problem.
I would agree that for the vast number of finance applications that "normal" people are likely to encounter, Excel is a more relevant skill than calculus. (in addition, for a serious amateur or some professionals, perhaps Python or R) My primary concern with asking people to plunge right into applications that are available with Excel, Python, or R is that it's very easy to get lulled into believing you understand how to use various packages and that you know what they are doing. But without a pretty good knowledge of the math behind the methods, it is easy to make a mistake. This is especially true since all finance applications work only within certain limiting conditions. Essentially all theory falls apart when there is a rapid change in financial market conditions.
I noticed that at Penn State there are two options to fulfill the calculus requirement.
One is called "techniques of calculus" which is not full calculus. I would describe it as "lite calculus".
As an engineer I used calculus in some of the software applications I was writing.
But most of the programming involved 3D geometry, vector mathematics, etc.
Several software programming environments already have a digital method to compute slopes of curves (derivatives), areas under curves (integrals), etc. So it was usually not necessary to have to do traditional calculus.
@derryb said:
don't computers make calculus obsolete? One would fair better taking a class in Microsoft Excel.
Can't believe I have to agree. My degree is in electrical engineering. Graduated over 25 years ago and can't say I've used calculus once since. Excel on the other hand gets used many times per day. RGDS!
P.S. Penn State is top notch, god bless The Commonwealth. I certainly wouldn't think there would be a need for Calc in the manufacturing of gutter fantasy tokens. THKS!
I've forgotten more calc than most have ever known. I stopped after IV, imaginary. Ever used it....only as prep for the brain to deal with other problem solving in life. Quick analyzation, thinking to solve, acting to solve...solving...the jist of math and science can be applied to anything in any field.
Is the dollar as reserve a problem? Is the brics a solution or a companion tangent? The world is too big and too small for only 1 answer here, when there can and should be many.
@Higashiyama said:
Let me join the speculation about Goldfinger1969s math background. 😃
I assume he has studied calculus. In any case, unless someone finds calculus pretty easy, they will struggle on the >CFA exams, which involve mathematical concepts far more sophisticated than what is found in a typical college > >calculus course,
FWIW, I took calculus in HS and college.
FWIW 2, I never have failed a single CFA or CFP or licensing exam in my financial history. I'm like the crack-lawyerss at The Firm who never failed the bar exam.
@derryb said:
don't computers make calculus obsolete? One would fair better taking a class in Microsoft Excel.
Can't believe I have to agree. My degree is in electrical engineering. Graduated over 25 years ago and can't say I've used calculus once since. Excel on the other hand gets used many times per day. RGDS!
P.S. Penn State is top notch, god bless The Commonwealth. I certainly wouldn't think there would be a need for Calc in the manufacturing of gutter fantasy tokens. THKS!
Calculus is not needed to run a mint.
But I did write my own digital sculpting software to do all the design and 3D sculpting in the making of dies.
There are not many people or companies where just a single person can take scrap metal and do every step necessary to turn it into finished coins (including the design, sculpting, and engraving of dies). If it was easy, more people would be doing it, and I would have more competition.
I am semi-retired (I quit my day job in 2006). Moonlight Mint is a hobby that also happens to be a viable enterprise that pays the bills. I have no boss and no employees, which is a perfect arrangement as far as I'm concerned.
The skills necessary to run my mint come from having a Mechanical Engineering degree, an enjoyment in creating art, and a knowledge of coins and collecting. Advanced math is not necessary, except for vector mathematics which I utilized in my sculpting software. As for restoring and maintaining the equipment, the best training for that was working on old cars as a hobby for many years.
The big fear in foreigners shedding their dependency and use on US dollars is hyperinflation in the US. For this reason all concerned eyes should keep those eyes on the growth and reach of BRICs. BRICs can make or break the future of the US dollar right here in the US.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
"US hegemony is ending financially, economically, and militarily."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
The big fear in foreigners shedding their dependency and use on US dollars is hyperinflation in the US. For this reason all concerned eyes should keep those eyes on the growth and reach of BRICs. BRICs can make or break the future of the US dollar right here in the US.
USD isn't going anywhere. Nobody wants to trade commodities in any of the BRICS currencies, that's a proven fact. And what is this "FEAR" you keep speaking of? Nobody in the real world is fearing anything. Another nothingburger created by the end of the world bunker doomsday cult. Don't worry, the gutter will save everything. SMH!
@derryb quoted Doug Casey as "US hegemony is ending financially, economically, and militarily"
Yes, and no one will replace us. The world will ultimately come to appreciate the value of a flawed but fundamentally benevolent hegemon. I hope we get our act together soon enough to provide some degree of guidance and stability to an increasingly multi-polar world.
@derryb said "The big fear in foreigners shedding their dependency and use on US dollars is hyperinflation in the US."
By hyperinflation, I assume you're using a mainstream definition, e.g., the 50 % per month or so that is mentioned in Investopedia. That is profoundly unlikely in the US, even in the most dire scenarios. With that said, as it regards our debt situation, we are running out of time to take corrective action, as noted in this Wharton analysis:
A quick summary of the analysis: the behavior of the financial markets implies that most traders still believe that the US will get our house in order. If we don't demonstrate the political will to do this, the markets will ultimately react, and things could unravel quickly. (leading to double digit inflation, punishing tax increases, etc.)
and suddenly, as always happens, it is realized that popular belief was wrong.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@Higashiyama said: @derryb said "The big fear in foreigners shedding their dependency and use on US dollars is hyperinflation in the US."
By hyperinflation, I assume you're using a mainstream definition, e.g., the 50 % per month or so that is mentioned in Investopedia. That is profoundly unlikely in the US, even in the most dire scenarios. With that said, as it regards our debt situation, we are running out of time to take corrective action, as noted in this Wharton analysis:
A quick summary of the analysis: the behavior of the financial markets implies that most traders still believe that the US will get our house in order. If we don't demonstrate the political will to do this, the markets will ultimately react, and things could unravel quickly. (leading to double digit inflation, punishing tax increases, etc.)
Nice to see a link to some actual analysis, and not some "credentialed" conspiracy nut.
Time table seems about right though. However, we need to remember that the USA does not exist in a vacuum, and the decay of outside neighborhoods could cause a flight to safety, which would prolong events.
@jmski52 said:
The financial system isn’t designed to be fair, honest or helpful to normal working people. It’s only there to benefit >the finance industry. Let’s be real about it.
Tens of millions of Americans with nice nest eggs, savings, and 401(k)'s and other TDAs would beg to differ with this ridiculous statement.
@cohodk said:
Nice to see a link to some actual analysis, and not "credentialed" conspiracy nut.
Time table seems about right though. Giwever, we need to remember that the USA does not exist in a vacuum, >and the decay of outside neighborhoods could cause a flight to safety, which would prolong events.
They're guessing, it's not an analysis.
Greece -- a 3rd-rate, tourist-dependent Socialist-controlled economy -- took 30 years to implode.
A global financial reserve superpower -- with large liquid bond and money markets -- will probably not get into trouble (stumbles aside and buyers strikes for Treasuries excepted) until the Debt/GDP level hits 300-400%.
The Denominator Effect does not likely come into play in the U.S. since we have productivity growth, population growth, nominal GDP growth, and control our own currency. The Wharton analysis doesn't include any of that.
Finally, AI is likely to add 1-1.5% real GDP and the U.S. is in the lead there. 1.5% a year for 20 years compounded cuts any debt level in half in 20 years.
@Higashiyama said: @derryb quoted Doug Casey as "US hegemony is ending financially, economically, and militarily"
Casey has been a perma-bear with apocalyptic predictions about as useful as saying that the Buffalo Sabres and Chicago Bears are the teams you want to emulate in the NHL and NFL.
He had 1 shining moment in his life -- 1979 -- and he's lived off that for 5 decades because SOME PEOPLE -- think he's a guru.
@GoldFinger1969
Finally, AI is likely to add 1-1.5% real GDP and the U.S. is in the lead there. 1.5% a year for 20 years compounded cuts any debt level in half in 20 years.
I've read many, many pages of research on AI and I'm very skeptical of its contribution to GDP growth. I wouldn't rely on such projections. If it happens then great, but I wouldn't include in forecasts.
We can conclude however that debt will increase faster than predicted-- because it always has. We have the ability to curb its effects, but do we have the guts?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Interesting to note that both biltzdude & coho use the “alien theory” whenever they have nothing to bring to the discussion.
It’s practically guaranteed!
At least Goldfinger makes an effort to regurgitate drivel from the Fed minutes and banking regs - all of which are designed to keep skimming freebies off of what’s left of the productive remnant of the economy via more debt and rehypothecation.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
As Mannarino points out, the ONLY reason that GDP will be positive is military spending - at over $1,000,000 per missile to take down an $11,000 drone, how long before the MIC demands another few $trillion just to stay even?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@GoldFinger1969 said "The Denominator Effect does not likely come into play in the U.S. since we have productivity growth, population growth, nominal GDP growth, and control our own currency. The Wharton analysis doesn't include any of that."
Both population growth and productivity growth are clearly part of the model. Nominal GDP is one of the central outputs of the model. One can reasonably wonder how well the model works, but in concept it is sound.
Here is an overview of the Wharton model, which includes a link to quite detailed documentation:
@jmski52 said:
Interesting to note that both biltzdude & coho use the “alien theory” whenever they have nothing to bring to the discussion.
It’s practically guaranteed!
At least Goldfinger makes an effort to regurgitate drivel from the Fed minutes and banking regs - all of which are designed to keep skimming freebies off of what’s left of the productive remnant of the economy via more debt and rehypothecation.
Even more interesting is that you and the doomsday crew bring us regurgitated cut and paste stories from Rickards, Butler, Webb and The Bulgarians continually calling for the collapse of America. You can fantasize about the demise of this great nation all you want but it just ain't happening. SMPR!
@jmski52 said:
Interesting to note that both biltzdude & coho use the “alien theory” whenever they have nothing to bring to the discussion.
It’s practically guaranteed!
At least Goldfinger makes an effort to regurgitate drivel from the Fed minutes and banking regs - all of which are designed to keep skimming freebies off of what’s left of the productive remnant of the economy via more debt and rehypothecation.
Even more interesting is that you and the doomsday crew bring us regurgitated cut and paste stories from Rickards, Butler, Webb and The Bulgarians continually calling for the collapse of America. You can fantasize about the demise of this great nation all you want but it just ain't happening. SMPR!
Not one of your mentioned culprits has called for the collapse of America. Most all of them have correctly called for the collapse of America's currency. Because your savings and your cash and most of your investments are made up of American currency you might want to give serious thought to the warnings.
To not only ignore these threats but to call them "Russian Conspiracy" (Hillary, is that you?) shows just how naive you and your crowd really are.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@jmski52 said:
As Mannarino points out, the ONLY reason that GDP will be positive is military spending - at over $1,000,000 per missile to take down an $11,000 drone, how long before the MIC demands another few $trillion just to stay even?
@jmski52 said:
Interesting to note that both biltzdude & coho use the “alien theory” whenever they have nothing to bring to the discussion.
It’s practically guaranteed!
At least Goldfinger makes an effort to regurgitate drivel from the Fed minutes and banking regs - all of which are designed to keep skimming freebies off of what’s left of the productive remnant of the economy via more debt and rehypothecation.
Even more interesting is that you and the doomsday crew bring us regurgitated cut and paste stories from Rickards, Butler, Webb and The Bulgarians continually calling for the collapse of America. You can fantasize about the demise of this great nation all you want but it just ain't happening. SMPR!
Not one of your mentioned culprits has called for the collapse of America. Most all of them have correctly called for the collapse of America's currency.
Hmmm....don't think the American currency has collapsed. But saying something is true when it really isn't is pretty popular these days.
@jmski52 said:
Interesting to note that both biltzdude & coho use the “alien theory” whenever they have nothing to bring to the discussion.
It’s practically guaranteed!
At least Goldfinger makes an effort to regurgitate drivel from the Fed minutes and banking regs - all of which are designed to keep skimming freebies off of what’s left of the productive remnant of the economy via more debt and rehypothecation.
Even more interesting is that you and the doomsday crew bring us regurgitated cut and paste stories from Rickards, Butler, Webb and The Bulgarians continually calling for the collapse of America. You can fantasize about the demise of this great nation all you want but it just ain't happening. SMPR!
.
Nobody here is rooting for the collapse of America.
There are warnings and predictions about the future value of the US Dollar.
Contemplating that something might happen, and wishing that it will happen, are two completely different things.
But I guess you don't get that ?
@jmski52 said:
Interesting to note that both biltzdude & coho use the “alien theory” whenever they have nothing to bring to the discussion.
It’s practically guaranteed!
At least Goldfinger makes an effort to regurgitate drivel from the Fed minutes and banking regs - all of which are designed to keep skimming freebies off of what’s left of the productive remnant of the economy via more debt and rehypothecation.
Even more interesting is that you and the doomsday crew bring us regurgitated cut and paste stories from Rickards, Butler, Webb and The Bulgarians continually calling for the collapse of America. You can fantasize about the demise of this great nation all you want but it just ain't happening. SMPR!
.
There are warnings and predictions about the future value of the US Dollar.
.
@jmski52 said:
Interesting to note that both biltzdude & coho use the “alien theory” whenever they have nothing to bring to the discussion.
It’s practically guaranteed!
At least Goldfinger makes an effort to regurgitate drivel from the Fed minutes and banking regs - all of which are designed to keep skimming freebies off of what’s left of the productive remnant of the economy via more debt and rehypothecation.
Even more interesting is that you and the doomsday crew bring us regurgitated cut and paste stories from Rickards, Butler, Webb and The Bulgarians continually calling for the collapse of America. You can fantasize about the demise of this great nation all you want but it just ain't happening. SMPR!
.
There are warnings and predictions about the future value of the US Dollar.
.
Folk have been saying that since 1792.
No doubt they will still be saying it come 2292. I will continue to bet on this great nation not against it. RGDS!
@jmski52 said:
Interesting to note that both biltzdude & coho use the “alien theory” whenever they have nothing to bring to the discussion.
It’s practically guaranteed!
At least Goldfinger makes an effort to regurgitate drivel from the Fed minutes and banking regs - all of which are designed to keep skimming freebies off of what’s left of the productive remnant of the economy via more debt and rehypothecation.
Even more interesting is that you and the doomsday crew bring us regurgitated cut and paste stories from Rickards, Butler, Webb and The Bulgarians continually calling for the collapse of America. You can fantasize about the demise of this great nation all you want but it just ain't happening. SMPR!
.
There are warnings and predictions about the future value of the US Dollar.
.
Folk have been saying that since 1792.
No doubt they will still be saying it come 2292. I will continue to bet on this great nation not against it. RGDS!
@jmski52 said:
Interesting to note that both biltzdude & coho use the “alien theory” whenever they have nothing to bring to the discussion.
It’s practically guaranteed!
At least Goldfinger makes an effort to regurgitate drivel from the Fed minutes and banking regs - all of which are designed to keep skimming freebies off of what’s left of the productive remnant of the economy via more debt and rehypothecation.
Even more interesting is that you and the doomsday crew bring us regurgitated cut and paste stories from Rickards, Butler, Webb and The Bulgarians continually calling for the collapse of America. You can fantasize about the demise of this great nation all you want but it just ain't happening. SMPR!
.
There are warnings and predictions about the future value of the US Dollar.
.
Folk have been saying that since 1792.
No doubt they will still be saying it come 2292. I will continue to bet on this great nation not against it. RGDS!
Yup....misery loves company.
.
The history of the US Dollar and other currencies is that they have lost purchasing power over time.
The rate of decline has been accelerating since the 1960s.
It is reasonable to predict that trend to continue, and for it to continue to accelerate.
@jmski52 said:
Interesting to note that both biltzdude & coho use the “alien theory” whenever they have nothing to bring to the discussion.
It’s practically guaranteed!
At least Goldfinger makes an effort to regurgitate drivel from the Fed minutes and banking regs - all of which are designed to keep skimming freebies off of what’s left of the productive remnant of the economy via more debt and rehypothecation.
Even more interesting is that you and the doomsday crew bring us regurgitated cut and paste stories from Rickards, Butler, Webb and The Bulgarians continually calling for the collapse of America. You can fantasize about the demise of this great nation all you want but it just ain't happening. SMPR!
.
There are warnings and predictions about the future value of the US Dollar.
.
Folk have been saying that since 1792.
No doubt they will still be saying it come 2292. I will continue to bet on this great nation not against it. RGDS!
.
Isn't owning gold (like you do) a bet against the success of the economy and financial system ?
Comments
I didn't go there much (fortunately). For my engineering degree I had to take a couple token "humanities" classes. That was the University policy, so as to produce "well-rounded" engineers. One such class was about the study of "social stratification". I only took it because it fit my schedule. The class was about how and why societies stratify into different levels of education, standard of living, opportunities, "priviledge", etc. I could sum up the entire class with one question. As usual, the class met as a type of round-table discussion. The typical refrain from other students was that it wasn't fair how societies operated. One time, when it was my turn to comment, I pointed out that I was the only male in the class, but for 95% of my engineering classes there was not even a single woman in the entire class. I stated that engineers basically run the world and why is that all you other students in this class didn't go into engineering instead of liberal arts ? Nobody had an answer, but that illustrated the situation better than any of the class curriculum.
PS:
Not once did I ever see a student switch to the Engineering School from the Business School or from Liberal Arts.
Because they wanted to use calculus to build fortunes, not rockets.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
No, that was not the case.
It was because the mathematically-intensive classes (such as calculus) were too hard for them.
The business school didn't require (or even offer) calculus.
But note that the Engineering School did offer some very advanced courses related to economics (such as "game theory" and "operations research").
.
My business school, my kids' business school and I'm sure Goldfinger's business school offered and required calculus.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Both disciplines require a high proficiency in math.
The difference is that engineers while they understand the concept of imaginary numbers, they don’t get to produce imaginary assets out of nothing via rehypothecation or fractional reserve banking.
I knew it would happen.
I would like some verification that any undergrad business school has a calculus requirement for graduation.
I graduated with an MBA in finance and as I recall, calculus wasn’t even in the curriculum. Some interesting stats courses, yes but not calculus.
I knew it would happen.
https://bulletins.psu.edu/undergraduate/colleges/smeal-business/finance-bs/#programrequirementstext
https://sites.psu.edu/altoonamath/mathematics-courses-offered-at-penn-state-altoona/math-140-calculus-with-analytic-geometry-i/
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So cohodk and GoldFinger1969 both took (and passed) calculus in their business school ?
I'm skeptical.
But I'm not surprised to learn that the two most strident supporters (on this forum) of the financial system status quo both earn their livings from it.
.
Status quo bout to go.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Why would you be skeptical?
Was it too difficult for you?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Lol.
Enjoy.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
And then some are engineers with MBA's
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I can't speak for him but I don't have an MBA. I do have a CFA which is more relevant to what I do.
.
Did you take (and pass) calculus ?
GoldFinger1969 apparently did not take calculus as you had postulated.
.
Let me join the speculation about Goldfinger1969s math background. 😃
I assume he has studied calculus. In any case, unless someone finds calculus pretty easy, they will struggle on the CFA exams, which involve mathematical concepts far more sophisticated than what is found in a typical college calculus course,
Calculus had to have been added to Penn State’s business finance curriculum as an elective sometime during the late eighties - whenever it was that automated trading by large institutions became predominant.
Penn State staying current, I suppose.
Using calculus to build financial fortunes (with leverage and derivatives - as coho implies…). All the more reason to AVOID paper contracts of financial assets.
All the more reason to stick with physical assets while the manipulators do their thing with programmed trading based on HFT.
The financial system isn’t designed to be fair, honest or helpful to normal working people. It’s only there to benefit the finance industry. Let’s be real about it.
I knew it would happen.
don't computers make calculus obsolete? One would fair better taking a class in Microsoft Excel.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb asked "don't computers make calculus obsolete? One would fair better taking a class in Microsoft Excel."
It's a great question. Regarding the calculus being obsolete part I'd say "sort of, but knowing the language of calculus is still useful for students of quantitative finance". As you suggest, even when a continuous process is hypothesized, the solutions will virtually always be derived through numerical methods (computer simulation). But, a knowledge of calculus can still be useful for quants who are trying to think about and frame a problem.
I would agree that for the vast number of finance applications that "normal" people are likely to encounter, Excel is a more relevant skill than calculus. (in addition, for a serious amateur or some professionals, perhaps Python or R) My primary concern with asking people to plunge right into applications that are available with Excel, Python, or R is that it's very easy to get lulled into believing you understand how to use various packages and that you know what they are doing. But without a pretty good knowledge of the math behind the methods, it is easy to make a mistake. This is especially true since all finance applications work only within certain limiting conditions. Essentially all theory falls apart when there is a rapid change in financial market conditions.
I noticed that at Penn State there are two options to fulfill the calculus requirement.
One is called "techniques of calculus" which is not full calculus. I would describe it as "lite calculus".
As an engineer I used calculus in some of the software applications I was writing.
But most of the programming involved 3D geometry, vector mathematics, etc.
Several software programming environments already have a digital method to compute slopes of curves (derivatives), areas under curves (integrals), etc. So it was usually not necessary to have to do traditional calculus.
Can't believe I have to agree. My degree is in electrical engineering. Graduated over 25 years ago and can't say I've used calculus once since. Excel on the other hand gets used many times per day. RGDS!
P.S. Penn State is top notch, god bless The Commonwealth. I certainly wouldn't think there would be a need for Calc in the manufacturing of gutter fantasy tokens. THKS!
I've forgotten more calc than most have ever known. I stopped after IV, imaginary. Ever used it....only as prep for the brain to deal with other problem solving in life. Quick analyzation, thinking to solve, acting to solve...solving...the jist of math and science can be applied to anything in any field.
Is the dollar as reserve a problem? Is the brics a solution or a companion tangent? The world is too big and too small for only 1 answer here, when there can and should be many.
FWIW, I took calculus in HS and college.
FWIW 2, I never have failed a single CFA or CFP or licensing exam in my financial history. I'm like the crack-lawyerss at The Firm who never failed the bar exam.
Calculus is not needed to run a mint.
But I did write my own digital sculpting software to do all the design and 3D sculpting in the making of dies.
There are not many people or companies where just a single person can take scrap metal and do every step necessary to turn it into finished coins (including the design, sculpting, and engraving of dies). If it was easy, more people would be doing it, and I would have more competition.
I am semi-retired (I quit my day job in 2006). Moonlight Mint is a hobby that also happens to be a viable enterprise that pays the bills. I have no boss and no employees, which is a perfect arrangement as far as I'm concerned.
The skills necessary to run my mint come from having a Mechanical Engineering degree, an enjoyment in creating art, and a knowledge of coins and collecting. Advanced math is not necessary, except for vector mathematics which I utilized in my sculpting software. As for restoring and maintaining the equipment, the best training for that was working on old cars as a hobby for many years.
The big fear in foreigners shedding their dependency and use on US dollars is hyperinflation in the US. For this reason all concerned eyes should keep those eyes on the growth and reach of BRICs. BRICs can make or break the future of the US dollar right here in the US.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Doug Casey: The world resents being bullied and controlled by Washington, DC.
"US hegemony is ending financially, economically, and militarily."
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
USD isn't going anywhere. Nobody wants to trade commodities in any of the BRICS currencies, that's a proven fact. And what is this "FEAR" you keep speaking of? Nobody in the real world is fearing anything. Another nothingburger created by the end of the world bunker doomsday cult. Don't worry, the gutter will save everything. SMH!
@derryb quoted Doug Casey as "US hegemony is ending financially, economically, and militarily"
Yes, and no one will replace us. The world will ultimately come to appreciate the value of a flawed but fundamentally benevolent hegemon. I hope we get our act together soon enough to provide some degree of guidance and stability to an increasingly multi-polar world.
@derryb said "The big fear in foreigners shedding their dependency and use on US dollars is hyperinflation in the US."
By hyperinflation, I assume you're using a mainstream definition, e.g., the 50 % per month or so that is mentioned in Investopedia. That is profoundly unlikely in the US, even in the most dire scenarios. With that said, as it regards our debt situation, we are running out of time to take corrective action, as noted in this Wharton analysis:
https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2023/10/6/when-does-federal-debt-reach-unsustainable-levels
A quick summary of the analysis: the behavior of the financial markets implies that most traders still believe that the US will get our house in order. If we don't demonstrate the political will to do this, the markets will ultimately react, and things could unravel quickly. (leading to double digit inflation, punishing tax increases, etc.)
and suddenly, as always happens, it is realized that popular belief was wrong.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Nice to see a link to some actual analysis, and not some "credentialed" conspiracy nut.
Time table seems about right though. However, we need to remember that the USA does not exist in a vacuum, and the decay of outside neighborhoods could cause a flight to safety, which would prolong events.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Tens of millions of Americans with nice nest eggs, savings, and 401(k)'s and other TDAs would beg to differ with this ridiculous statement.
They're guessing, it's not an analysis.
Greece -- a 3rd-rate, tourist-dependent Socialist-controlled economy -- took 30 years to implode.
A global financial reserve superpower -- with large liquid bond and money markets -- will probably not get into trouble (stumbles aside and buyers strikes for Treasuries excepted) until the Debt/GDP level hits 300-400%.
The Denominator Effect does not likely come into play in the U.S. since we have productivity growth, population growth, nominal GDP growth, and control our own currency. The Wharton analysis doesn't include any of that.
Finally, AI is likely to add 1-1.5% real GDP and the U.S. is in the lead there. 1.5% a year for 20 years compounded cuts any debt level in half in 20 years.
Casey has been a perma-bear with apocalyptic predictions about as useful as saying that the Buffalo Sabres and Chicago Bears are the teams you want to emulate in the NHL and NFL.
He had 1 shining moment in his life -- 1979 -- and he's lived off that for 5 decades because SOME PEOPLE
-- think he's a guru.
Only if you like to lose money !
I've read many, many pages of research on AI and I'm very skeptical of its contribution to GDP growth. I wouldn't rely on such projections. If it happens then great, but I wouldn't include in forecasts.
We can conclude however that debt will increase faster than predicted-- because it always has. We have the ability to curb its effects, but do we have the guts?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Black Swan Events - brought to you by aliens. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Interesting to note that both biltzdude & coho use the “alien theory” whenever they have nothing to bring to the discussion.
It’s practically guaranteed!
At least Goldfinger makes an effort to regurgitate drivel from the Fed minutes and banking regs - all of which are designed to keep skimming freebies off of what’s left of the productive remnant of the economy via more debt and rehypothecation.
I knew it would happen.
As Mannarino points out, the ONLY reason that GDP will be positive is military spending - at over $1,000,000 per missile to take down an $11,000 drone, how long before the MIC demands another few $trillion just to stay even?
I knew it would happen.
@GoldFinger1969 said "The Denominator Effect does not likely come into play in the U.S. since we have productivity growth, population growth, nominal GDP growth, and control our own currency. The Wharton analysis doesn't include any of that."
Both population growth and productivity growth are clearly part of the model. Nominal GDP is one of the central outputs of the model. One can reasonably wonder how well the model works, but in concept it is sound.
Here is an overview of the Wharton model, which includes a link to quite detailed documentation:
https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/microsim/documentation
Even more interesting is that you and the doomsday crew bring us regurgitated cut and paste stories from Rickards, Butler, Webb and The Bulgarians continually calling for the collapse of America. You can fantasize about the demise of this great nation all you want but it just ain't happening. SMPR!
Not one of your mentioned culprits has called for the collapse of America. Most all of them have correctly called for the collapse of America's currency. Because your savings and your cash and most of your investments are made up of American currency you might want to give serious thought to the warnings.
To not only ignore these threats but to call them "Russian Conspiracy" (Hillary, is that you?) shows just how naive you and your crowd really are.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
That's the only reason?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Hmmm....don't think the American currency has collapsed. But saying something is true when it really isn't is pretty popular these days.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
Nobody here is rooting for the collapse of America.
There are warnings and predictions about the future value of the US Dollar.
Contemplating that something might happen, and wishing that it will happen, are two completely different things.
But I guess you don't get that ?
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Folk have been saying that since 1792.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
No doubt they will still be saying it come 2292. I will continue to bet on this great nation not against it. RGDS!
Yup....misery loves company.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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The history of the US Dollar and other currencies is that they have lost purchasing power over time.
The rate of decline has been accelerating since the 1960s.
It is reasonable to predict that trend to continue, and for it to continue to accelerate.
.
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Isn't owning gold (like you do) a bet against the success of the economy and financial system ?
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