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Will BRICS replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency?

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  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,816 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,845 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Gold goes higher, yes, but it's nothing to do with U.S. fiscal problems.

    lol, of course not. It's all just magic. :p

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    They need the money to bail out their economy (see eatlier post). The US dollar saves the day again!!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,845 ✭✭✭✭✭

    They need the money to bail out their economy (see eatlier post). The US dollar saves the day again!!!

    And then they bought more gold with the proceeds! Can the Fed sell dollars to save the day for the US? Who buys the debt when China doesn't?

    Oh, I remember - it's the Fed, playing their usual shell game with the bond market. The bond market that has no buyers.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 18, 2024 5:59PM

    @jmski52 said:
    Who buys the debt when China doesn't?

    Millions and millions of Americans buy US debt every week. As does almost every county on the planet.

    Who is going to buy China's debt?

    China to Start $138 Billion Bond Sale on Friday to Boost Economy https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-13/china-to-hold-meeting-on-138-billion-ultra-long-debt-sale

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    The bond market that has no buyers.

    This comment has absolutely no basis in fact.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,460 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Silicon Valley Bank put most of their reserves in US Treasury Bonds. But they still failed when the market value of those Treasury Bonds dropped and the bank suffered a surge in withdrawals.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,845 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Millions and millions of Americans buy US debt every week. As does almost every county on the planet.

    What BS. US Treasuries are the biggest ponzi that the world has ever known - and everyone (except coho) knows it.

    The Fed is the only buyer of longer term US debt now, and the banks are in trouble because they bought low yield Treasuries for the past 20 years.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 19, 2024 6:18AM

    @jmski52 said “The Fed is the only buyer of longer term US debt now,”

    That is totally incorrect (ie, opposite of the current status). For the past two years, the Fed has reduced treasury bond holdings. Although foreign central banks have also decreased holdings, there are some exceptions over the past year (eg, Japan). In the meantime, the private sector, both in the US and abroad, have become net buyers.

    (This is easy to verify)

    Edited to add: thanks to @cohodk for the useful graphs!

    Higashiyama
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 19, 2024 6:18AM

    @jmski52 said:
    Millions and millions of Americans buy US debt every week. As does almost every county on the planet.

    What BS. US Treasuries are the biggest ponzi that the world has ever known - and everyone (except coho) knows it.

    The Fed is the only buyer of longer term US debt now, and the banks are in trouble because they bought low yield Treasuries for the past 20 years.

    Wow!!! You've outdone even yourself. Yet again you've proven you know nothing. Nothing.

    You don't have an MBA as it would be impossible to lack such an understanding of markets and the economy.

    Here are some charts showing why you are wrong (as usual). I don't expect you to accept these charts as you are blinded by your hatred and contempt, but for those who wish to see....

    Debt held by public and private and international is rising, while debt held by FED is declining.




    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,845 ✭✭✭✭✭

    You believe what the Fed publishes? Good luck with that!

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,816 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I see a bunch of FRED charts that show runaway debt. I don't believe that debt "judgement day" will care who is holding it.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,845 ✭✭✭✭✭

    “Private Investors” = Federal Reserve banks

    “Foreign & International Investors” = Cayman Islands, Luxembourg, Belgium.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,845 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Ok, let’s play.

    Coho, Goldfinger - what were your majors in college - since you’ve both made it a relevant issue?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,460 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Ok, let’s play.

    Coho, Goldfinger - what were your majors in college - since you’ve both made it a relevant issue?

    Cohodk has, in the past, refused to respond to requests to declare what he does for a living, who he works for, and what position(s) has has in the market. Legitimate financial news organizations require that disclosure from commentators.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,816 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 19, 2024 4:50PM

    @dcarr said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Ok, let’s play.

    Coho, Goldfinger - what were your majors in college - since you’ve both made it a relevant issue?

    Cohodk has, in the past, refused to respond to requests to declare what he does for a living, who he works for, and what position(s) has has in the market. Legitimate financial news organizations require that disclosure from commentators.

    we are far from legitimate.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,891 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @dcarr said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Ok, let’s play.

    Coho, Goldfinger - what were your majors in college - since you’ve both made it a relevant issue?

    Cohodk has, in the past, refused to respond to requests to declare what he does for a living, who he works for, and what position(s) has has in the market. Legitimate financial news organizations require that disclosure from commentators.

    Perhaps because it would be none of your business? THKS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,845 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Perhaps because it would be none of your business? THKS!

    Do I need to point out the hypocrisy here?

    It’s ok for coho and gf to hide behind “it’s none of your business” when making sarcastic and personally-demeaning jabs about my qualifications (which apparently neither one of them can match).

    I’m here to talk about PMs and I get personally attacked for sharing my observations and opinions.

    So who are the trolls here?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 20, 2024 3:59AM

    @jmski52 said:
    Perhaps because it would be none of your business? THKS!

    Do I need to point out the hypocrisy here?

    It’s ok for coho and gf to hide behind “it’s none of your business” when making sarcastic and personally-demeaning jabs about my qualifications (which apparently neither one of them can match).

    I’m here to talk about PMs and I get personally attacked for sharing my observations and opinions.

    So who are the trolls here?

    I'm just a redneck hillbilly that knows more than you. And I wouldn't want to "match" you. That would be an insult...to me!! Haha

    You tout your "credentials". Ive never asked you cuz I don't give a rats... You subscribe to "alternative facts". I don't. Simple as that.

    Not trolls, just concerned folk who attempt to keep this place from being an echo chamber prison.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 20, 2024 4:08AM

    Back to topic of BRICS and challengers to the US dollar.....and kinda timely given today news....

    https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-currency-record-low-rials-dollars-norouz/32875507.html

    This quote is very revealing...

    an employee of one of the shops, told the Associated Press that the holiday was contributing to the plunge in the rate, giving only his first name over fear of retribution for speaking about Iran’s economic struggles. The demand for dollars is high because people travel abroad

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,816 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    Not trolls, just concerned folk who attempt to keep this place from being an echo chamber prison.

    It's beneficial to have conflicting opinion, even if it's conflicted, but only when the opinion is about the topic at hand and not the person who discussed or presented it.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 3,984 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I believe in about 10 years; this thread discussion will be very different. Which country, if any single one, has a "reserve currency" is probably going to be less relevant. We are in a goldilocks period where the massive increase in U.S. debt including gov't, public, and private, is still going into an adequate number of productive investments that it overcomes the bad loans and fiscal mismanagement that will eventually become more significant.

    History would suggest that a deflationary depression will eventually result when too much borrowing or money printing goes to wasteful projects, insolvent or non-productive businesses or people, or wars where it is literally just blown up.

    In this current and future environment, moving a bit higher percentage of earnings and life savings into physical precious metals under your direct control, and out of lower rated banks or speculative stocks, and paying off some credit card debt is a good idea.

  • pmh1nicpmh1nic Posts: 3,276 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Rather than totally replacing the dollar will enough countries move away from it that the result is a significant decrease its value?

    The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,816 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pmh1nic said:
    Rather than totally replacing the dollar will enough countries move away from it that the result is a significant decrease its value?

    you pretty much defined "loosing world currency status." Only question left would be "what takes over?" I believe China will have a big say in the matter and that gold will be included.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    Not trolls, just concerned folk who attempt to keep this place from being an echo chamber prison.

    It's beneficial to have conflicting opinion, even if it's conflicted, but only when the opinion is about the topic at hand and not the person who discussed or presented it.

    Agreed.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,767 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    drop in the bucket for what the US spends on bailouts. Sound like a free economy? LOL

    Only "bailouts" I see are for labor union pensions and OPEBs. :o

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 1,767 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Open Market Operations are not "bailouts" -- it's what a central bank does.
    printing money and injecting it into the banking system to stimulate lending is a bank bailout. QE is a hidden >central bank subsidy for the banks. As we have learned, QE and the FED's zero interest rate policy resulted in money >supply inflation, asset and consumer goods price inflation, and dollar devaluation.
    When the cost of open market operations includes destruction of the currency then it's time for the central bank to >shutter its doors or to find more competent management.

    You show no understanding of modern banking or finance. OMO can also be reversed via reverse REPOs as is being done right now. If OMO QE is a subsidy, is tightening a tax ?

    The dollar is doing fine. There is no "destruction" of the currency.

    Speaking of competence.... :D

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,460 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @derryb said:
    drop in the bucket for what the US spends on bailouts. Sound like a free economy? LOL

    Only "bailouts" I see are for labor union pensions and OPEBs. :o

    .

    You write of overt bailouts.
    But that is dwarfed by the covert bailouts in the form of banks setting monetary policy to benefit themselves first.

    .

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,460 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blitzdude said:

    @dcarr said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Ok, let’s play.

    Coho, Goldfinger - what were your majors in college - since you’ve both made it a relevant issue?

    Cohodk has, in the past, refused to respond to requests to declare what he does for a living, who he works for, and what position(s) has has in the market. Legitimate financial news organizations require that disclosure from commentators.

    Perhaps because it would be none of your business? THKS!

    .

    Cohodk has previously made comments about my business.

    If he wants to be taken seriously he should disclose these things.
    Otherwise, it is like a talking head that is only here is to put lipstick on the pigs they want to sell.

    .

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,816 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    The dollar is doing fine. There is no "destruction" of the currency.

    Been to the grocery store lately?

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,816 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 22, 2024 6:23AM

    From coho's link:

    "Practically no one is phasing out the dollar for trade or foreign reserves, he said."

    The reality:

    China is reducing it's holding of US debt.

    "China continues to pare its holdings of U.S. Treasurys, arousing market speculations over its motives. The country's stockpile of U.S. government debt hit the lowest level in 14 years at the end of August, with the pace of decline accelerating."

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    From coho's link:

    "Practically no one is phasing out the dollar for trade or foreign reserves, he said."

    The reality:

    China is reducing it's holding of US debt.

    "China continues to pare its holdings of U.S. Treasurys, arousing market speculations over its motives. The country's stockpile of U.S. government debt hit the lowest level in 14 years at the end of August, with the pace of decline accelerating."

    Excellent...can't wait till they have none. More for the rest of us.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,816 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    From coho's link:

    "Practically no one is phasing out the dollar for trade or foreign reserves, he said."

    The reality:

    China is reducing it's holding of US debt.

    "China continues to pare its holdings of U.S. Treasurys, arousing market speculations over its motives. The country's stockpile of U.S. government debt hit the lowest level in 14 years at the end of August, with the pace of decline accelerating."

    Excellent...can't wait till they have none. More for the rest of us.

    think of it as musical chairs. Early is better than late.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    From coho's link:

    "Practically no one is phasing out the dollar for trade or foreign reserves, he said."

    The reality:

    China is reducing it's holding of US debt.

    "China continues to pare its holdings of U.S. Treasurys, arousing market speculations over its motives. The country's stockpile of U.S. government debt hit the lowest level in 14 years at the end of August, with the pace of decline accelerating."

    Excellent...can't wait till they have none. More for the rest of us.

    think of it as musical chairs. Early is better than late.

    Nah.....last one gets the chair. :)

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,816 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    Bout time they start using their own dang currency.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,816 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 23, 2024 4:09PM

    @cohodk said:

    Bout time they start using their own dang currency.

    Are you smart enough to understand why they are dumping dollars?

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    Bout time they start using their own dang currency.

    Are you smart enough to understand why they are dumping dollars?

    Smarter than you.

    But yeah, and of course you'll disagree.....but it's because they can manipulate and devalue their own currency.

    Besides, they ain't "dumping" dollars. They buy billions every week due to their trade surplus with the US.

    However they are converting excess dollar holdings to their own currency to bail out and prop up their economy. Good thing they saved all those dollars as the yuan has declined about 14% vs the dollar over the last decade.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,816 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 23, 2024 6:45PM

    dollar might be buying more yuan but it is buying less Spaghetti O's

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,891 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    dollar might be buying more yuan but it is buying less Spaghetti O's

    It's a good thing wages also increase. My cabinets are stocked full of butter and beanz. THKS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,845 ✭✭✭✭✭

    they ain't "dumping" dollars. They buy billions every week due to their trade surplus with the US.

    They ain't saving dollars either.

    they are converting excess dollar holdings to their own currency to bail out and prop up their economy.

    That trade surplus is buying gold. Buying their own currency to bail out and "prop up their economy"................hmmmmm............sound familiar? A race to the bottom.

    Problem is, neither central bank is propping up anything. All they do is force more people into debt, Great for bankers, not so great for the debt slaves.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    they ain't "dumping" dollars. They buy billions every week due to their trade surplus with the US.

    They ain't saving dollars either.

    they are converting excess dollar holdings to their own currency to bail out and prop up their economy.

    That trade surplus is buying gold. Buying their own currency to bail out and "prop up their economy"................hmmmmm............sound familiar? A race to the bottom.

    Problem is, neither central bank is propping up anything. All they do is force more people into debt, Great for bankers, not so great for the debt slaves.

    Only the weak are "forced" We are weak. Don't be weak.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,816 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    Only the weak are "forced" We are weak. Don't be weak.

    correct, don't be forced to buy food or shelter.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,891 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    Only the weak are "forced" We are weak. Don't be weak.

    correct, don't be forced to buy food or shelter.

    Grow your own build your own. Certainly not a new concept. THKS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 25, 2024 3:17AM

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    Only the weak are "forced" We are weak. Don't be weak.

    correct, don't be forced to buy food or shelter.

    While we debate how much premium to pay for PMs. Lol.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,118 ✭✭✭✭✭

    NVDA has a higher market cap than the GDP of Russia.

    MSFT is about equal to India.

    Facebook is equal to South Africa.

    Maybe we should be discussing those companies creating a currency. They might prove more competitive. Lol

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,816 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    NVDA has a higher market cap than the GDP of Russia.

    MSFT is about equal to India.

    Facebook is equal to South Africa.

    Maybe we should be discussing those companies creating a currency. They might prove more competitive. Lol

    so, what is over priced and what is under priced?

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • SoldiSoldi Posts: 2,177 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Will BRICS replace the dollar as the world 🌎 reserve currency? In a word ....." NO"

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 8,460 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 25, 2024 11:03AM

    @cohodk said:
    NVDA has a higher market cap than the GDP of Russia.

    MSFT is about equal to India.

    Facebook is equal to South Africa.

    Maybe we should be discussing those companies creating a currency. They might prove more competitive. Lol

    .

    If anything, those data points indicate that perhaps the stock market (especially "tech" stocks) is way over-priced relative to other things.

    Facebook is basically worthless as far as I am concerned.

    .

This discussion has been closed.