Survey: What are some coins/dates that you think are overpriced based on other coins around them?
WingedLiberty1957
Posts: 2,984 ✭✭✭✭✭
One coin I could never figure out the prices are 1996 American Silver Eagles. Yes I know it's the lowest mintage ASE, however it's still a bullion coin and it's not really rare. Why are these twice as much as common dates?
2
Comments
No ASE is even close to rare, not even the 95-W or the numerous non-standard issues. Just outsized demand.
Generically, my explanation for the (apparent) anomalies you describe is that buyer's will pay the (perceived) inflated price, as long as they have the expectation of recovering most of their purchase price at resale. "Most" varies by buyer.
As to which coins fit this profile, I'd dump every single actually common US 20th century key date in this category. I don't know the relative supply, whether in grade or otherwise, but think the price spreads should be narrower with a lower price.
The 1996 minted in Philadelphia, without the P MM, seems to be the high priced one... Cheers, RickO
i was also always curious why the 1914-D Lincoln is so much higher priced than the 1914-S in MS condition. If you look at the PCGS slabbed populations, the 1914-S is rarer, yet the 1914-d is a lot more expensive. Kind of interesting.
My Coin Blog
My Toned Lincoln Registry Set
Scores of folks will zero in on key date US coinage.
However, it really doesn't matter how rare or scarce something is compared to something else if there isn't a component of demand added. In the case of the rather mature US numismatic market, and aside from short-term hype products, the old equilibrium of supply vs. demand dictates price very well. Therefore, while I would personally prefer a coin or two that might have a lower population or might be more difficult for me to find, I really can't argue that there are individual US coins that are overpriced based upon coins around them.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
I have always believed that super eye appealing mint error coins with a uniqueness of One are extremely undervalued when compared to the price of all other collectable coins.
I answered the opposite of the OP request
FA02 'Lowball' Morgan dollars.
I see pricing on these upward of $100. and there is nothing special about them as many, many Morgans are worn to FA02.
peacockcoins
I have never understood the cavalier use of "overpriced" on the internet.
With respect, if a widget is selling at a particular price, it's not "overpriced," even if some people are appalled at the price. So any coin that is selling isn't, by definition, overpriced.
I certainly can understand being perplexed at some prices (low-ball coins come to mind); but if people are paying the price, it's a "fair" price, not "overpriced."
"Overpriced"= "more than I want to pay"
The coin that comes to mind is the 1909-S VDB.
With over 21,000 graded just by PCGS this coin is not rare in my opinion. Probably will never fork over that kind of money for one of these, I might change my mind at some point, maybe to finish off a set. But for sure it would be the last coin I add unless someone is giving them away.
Mike
My Indians
Danco Set
US Mint Products like Annual Mint Sets and Proof Sets seem overpriced as well. most never seem to sell in the aftermarket at as high a price as the mint charged.
My Coin Blog
My Toned Lincoln Registry Set
That's because you aren't impartial.
It's also an invalid comparison. It's even worse than comparing the rarity of die varieties to the date generically. Errors are supposed to made by accident, so there is nothing unusual in the scarcity of any error. If your sentiments were reality, errors would sell for more than the vast majority of coins.
Last year around June, I evaluated the Heritage Archive data to rank US series by volume at multiple price points. This is the best indication of relative collector preference, how buyers spend their money. Errors are more competitive at lower price points but less so at higher prices. The reason should be self-evident.
This thread seems to be approaching the question from someone's subjective assessment of the coin's relative merits as a collectible, presumably. Not from a market efficiency perspective.
Tradition means demand, as with the 14D mentioned above. The SVDB was the last coin I bought for my Lincoln set. No need to hunt as all I had to do (pretty much) was write a check when I was ready. The set was 64ish, so would have been different if I was competing. Holding off buying the HR Saint for the same reason.
Is it really scarcer or is it the result of "positive selection bias" where collectors have a tendency to submit a larger number of higher value coins?
I don't think so. I've collected Lincolns since 1960 and the 14S has always been tough in better condition.
Would add I cant speak to the lower circulated grades.
Well, that's fine, except that's not what it actually means. I know that that's how many think of it, but it's pretty silly to pretend that something that is selling just fine is "overpriced," just because it's more than you want to pay.
The world is full of things that are worth nothing to me, but lots of people will pay for them (Taylor Swift tickets, anyone?). They're not "overpriced" by any rational definition, just because I don't want to buy them.
Again, that's fine. But you can't redefine a word just because you want to. Ask what coins are priced higher than you want to pay; but "overpriced" is not an accurate label for coins that are selling just fine at that price.
I totally agree. But that is the way people interpret it. There are NO overpriced coins in the US market. It's too big of a market and too mature. [Note: speaking of course of sales prices as a group not a single example. I can list a 1909 SVDB for $5 million. That coin would be overpriced and not sell. ]
It might be better to ask the question in terms of supply or demand. What coins have unusually high demand, for example? That is really the issue and there are obvious reasons for it. SVDB cents and 16D dimes, for example, have extremely high demand even though neither of them are the hardest coin to find in their series in higher grades. But we all know why that is and none of us knows whether it will ever change.
I think it will change as older collectors age out...
Yes, if the number of set collectors shrinks which I think it will because these series have to compete against others with (much) better numismatic credentials where an increasing proportion and number of future collectors will likely have different cultural preferences; Latin or Asian.
I consider all common US key dates "overpriced" but the lower or lowest grades the most "overpriced". The 16-D dime is one. Pre-pandemic (maybe five years prior) I think it sold for maybe $700 in "good". Last I checked, I recall $1200. It's a common and not particularly attractive coin in this quality.
Toned coins.
AT or NT.
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...
In theory, coins are only overvalued if people claim scarcity above other issues in the type (or alike types). Scarcity being outlined as demand+pop in the current available market. Issues like the 09-S VDB are not rare at all but are scarce due to the amount of demand (the same could be said for a 95-W eagle).
When it comes down to it, I would pay for an overpriced issue if it fits my collection narrative.
So if someone offered it for sale at 2 million, it would be a steal.
The problem here is, those that drive the market for profit.
Let’s drop the offer price to 5,000 for the SVDB and see what today’s market will do. Lol😄
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...
High grade 1881-S dollars. Look at the pop reports.
I don’t think coins are as much overpriced as they are overhyped. Relative to coins around them, I would think the newer W mint quarters released in circulation kind of fall into that category as overpriced. It’s interesting to observe, but it’s more fun to partake.
The wide AM cents ? High and low leaf 2004-D Wisconsin quarters ? Speared bison nickels ? Varieties seem overpriced , but isn’t because collectors actually decide what price is “fair” ? No matter the ask, the bid is lower.
I agree; so, of course, I think that that's a good analysis.
I happen to love die varieties, but only "interesting" ones (meaning, essentially, that one needs neither a magnifying glass nor special knowledge to see what's happening (the best example is the 1955 DDO, but there are lots like that).
But I need to look carefully, and compare with photos on the net, for things like "wide AM" and the like, so I don't understand the hype for those. But, of course, to each his/her own.
Moderns
Dave
If I listened to anyone that told me "that coin is overpriced " despite being very attractive and having great eye appeal, I'd have have far fewer coins in my collection. Fewer coins I could sell for far higher prices than what I paid.
Stupid money on some very very eye appealing and popular coins a few years ago doesn't look so stupid today, especially if you timed it right.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
.
Kennedys are my quest...
As soon as I saw the thread title, I immediately thought of ASE. The price guide for 1999 MS70 is $16,000. Other years have wild valuations. Would you want 1 of those or a trunk full of the same year in MS69 @ $60 ea.? To most people they are identical and even at $60 you are paying a big premium over the real bullion price.
1909-S V.D.B. penny is definitely over-priced. 1877 penny is over-priced too. I saw a raw one at my favorite coin store recently for over $900. Very good condition. Nice for the grade, unquestionably authentic but $945? Too much $$$ imo. That's my two cents worth. The end.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
Now, Now. If you were to see the huge presence that Taylor Swift has at the Country Music Hall of Fame you would be singing a different tune about Taylor Swift tickets being overpriced. Have you ever sniffed her perfume, Wonderstruck? Do that ( I cop a few whiffs of Wonderstruck out of the sample bottle in the cosmetics aisle sometimes when I go to the Walmart) and you'll think you died and went to heaven. "Overpriced" is just an opinion, nothing more, nothing less. Lots and lots of US coins are over-priced, some for a very, very long time, in MY OPINION. It's the nature of raw capitalism to overprice stuff. Turn people upside down to see how much money falls out of their pockets. Many people, too many people, have more money than sense in 21st century America. As a business model for the coin business, over-pricing works admirably.
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
If it’s beyond my budget or can’t buy it right a moot issue. If sales slow probably not buying period unless really super deal (a).
(a) Is seller or auc win at 10-20 pct behind CDN bid?
As far as material I think may be run up, over promoted, too expensive vs deals for me in other areas (currency, world): US Classic coins, especially generics. This mainly due to economic outlook - its impact on market conditions. Many of it is simply over hyped too (individuals working their racket).
Frankly (seeing how tough sales were at shows lately) I think many would rather spend $300 or more at a gentleman’s club than pay retail on a $300 coin. Coins IMO really aren’t that competitive with areas like Strip Clubbing, travel or sports entertainment. Nor do coins pay interest or dividends. Most collectors lose money, or simply portfolio depletion (coins going bad due to ugly dark tarnish, reaction w atmosphere from long term hold) imo. While setup at a local show spent virtually zero (had lots buying cash) bc a large inventory wholesaler source usually great deals at 5 pct over bid not there nor any decent offers off bourse.
The definition of overpriced does not necessarily mean that it “costs more than it’s worth” for ALL people. It can be applied to a single person or any subset of the total population.
What definition are you looking at that specifies overpriced means it is “priced so high that NOBODY is buying it?”
US and British coin collector, and creator of The Ultimate Chuck E. Cheese's and Showbiz Pizza Place Token & Ticket Guide
What definition specifies that "overpriced" means that SOMEBODY won't buy it? By that definition, every coin would be overpriced. There's not a single coin out there that doesn't have some people unwilling to buy it.
Economists define value in terms of buyers and sellers meeting on a price. [Assuming that either, of course, could walk away.] By that definition, anything that sells sells at the right price.
1931-S Lincoln. I never heard the 31-D called a key or semi-key. The 31-D is much rarer; 2-10x in Unc according to pop reports. (31D in 66RD is 8k, Pop 68. 31S in 66RD is 2650, Pop 189.)
Check out my iPhone app SlabReader!
I explicitly said that her tickets aren't overpriced; far from it. And, to be clear, I have a great deal of respect for Taylor Swift as an artist, a businessperson, and as a person. I just don't particularly like her music. I used tickets to her concerts as an example of just how silly it is to say that something is "overpriced" merely because you don't want to pay that much; as long as there's a good market at that price (and, clearly, there is an extremely good market for her tickets at almost any price), it's not "overpriced" by any rational definition.
Properly used (as I previously noted), "overpriced" isn't an "opinion," but a statement of fact, regarding an item that isn't selling (e.g., a house for sale that's sitting on the market for a long time is, by definition, "overpriced." I know people use the word to describe an item they think is priced too high, but that's a poor use of the term, if the item is selling.
I don’t want say overpriced but…
I mainly look at it as what is a bargain vs US coin c or series x. I bought PCGS 64 WW 1 era silver piece (1franc silver) from online auc for $28. That’s less than slab cost! This is certainly a bargain vs many US Classic Coins. It has a pop of about 50 in MS64. Checking eBay sellers seems going for $115-130. So lots of room in it!
An 1883-O $ in 64 (common date generic) is $135 MV per cf it’s pop is 48,000 plus. I am not saying US matl overpriced but I will take my French Silver piece any day at what I paid. What less than 2 people pay for dinner / drinks? A CAC 1883-O MS64$ is $161 (CPG) CAC and $134 CPG non cac. So mainly my focus stuff like my French coin…I do have some US Classic - an 1883-O $ and 1923 $ both in PCGS 64 mainly my own interest and for retail to fans of the Yellowstone Ranch shows like I am.
1815 bust half dollars seem overpriced to me. Why spend thousands on a decent VF when you can grab an R-7 (4-12 known) die state for a fraction of the price?
The high price makes sense once you realize that many more people are collecting by date and not die state.
"But seek ye first the kingdom of God and His righteousness and all these things shall be added unto you" Matthew 6:33. Young fellow suffering from Bust Half fever.
BHNC #AN-10
JRCS #1606
Okay I get that. I just could not find a single definition of overpriced that specified nobody is buying it.
I can’t think of anyone who would misunderstand what the OP (or almost everyone (who is not an economist) else who uses that term) means when the say it.
We’re you or 124Spider totally confused by the OP, or did you immediately understand that they were asking what coins do you feel are priced too high?
US and British coin collector, and creator of The Ultimate Chuck E. Cheese's and Showbiz Pizza Place Token & Ticket Guide
Okay I get that. I just could not find a single definition of overpriced that specified nobody is buying it.
I can’t think of anyone who would misunderstand what the OP (or almost everyone (who is not an economist) else who uses that term) means when the say it.
We’re you or 124Spider totally confused by the OP, or did you immediately understand that they were asking what coins do you feel are priced too high?
US and British coin collector, and creator of The Ultimate Chuck E. Cheese's and Showbiz Pizza Place Token & Ticket Guide
Your example is almost certainly a lot more common than you imply. I don't know the exact availability and no, i don't believe its anywhere near as common as common Morgan dollars but European silver coins from this era from a country like France have to be among the most common of all world coinage in high quality. You also didn't identify the date, but only two with PCGS near 50 in 64, with many more in other MS grades and many more at NGC too. $115-$130 is no bargain going by the scarcity. It's a high price (no, not low) due to a preferred design (Sower).
The supply is not visible to US collecting because most of it is presumably in Europe, they don't prefer TPG, it's not economical to submit it, and it's potentially owned in large number as coin silver.
See my avatar?
It's an 1813 PCGS MS-66 Mexico 1/4R. Last I checked earlier this year, the combined NGC and PCGS count was 50 with 45 MS. I think my coin is a pop 10/0 (at both services), so it's not like it's really that rare in this grade. I don't think it's a hoard coin either.
If this many of this coin exist, we can be sure that most other world coins exist in much higher supply.
Speaking only for myself, I was not at all confused. Only those who feel that "overpriced" means "someone feels that the price is too high" are confused, as far as I can tell.
You’re very insistent about the definition of this word. Show me a definition from any of the respected dictionaries, and tell me how it disagrees with what I stated.
US and British coin collector, and creator of The Ultimate Chuck E. Cheese's and Showbiz Pizza Place Token & Ticket Guide
Oh their common lol - so are generic Morgan’s, much more so. I will believe that about Europe when see it.
Do you have some slabbed 64 like that - WW1 era sell me at $28? The ebay sellers around $125 (slabbed 64). Super deal? Don’t c any other retail price. For lack of better data looks like CMV. If disagree take it up w them.
Every definition I find basically says priced higher than it’s worth, or priced too high. It does not say anything about priced so high it’s un-sellable.
Every single definition I’ve found can easily be read as an item is priced higher than A PERSON thinks it’s worth.
US and British coin collector, and creator of The Ultimate Chuck E. Cheese's and Showbiz Pizza Place Token & Ticket Guide
3 leg Buffalo nickels are way over priced in my opinion, and I don't even collect them.
I'm sorry, but I try not to be one of those folks who fights strangers on the internet over silly things.
I have made my position clear, without picking a fight with anyone. Every definition I look at of the word is consistent with what I have said.
If you choose to use the word in a different way, feel free.