Yep it's called JUNK Wax for a reason. Other apropos name might be "Trash wax", "Hot Garbage Wax" "Roach Wax" or "Dirt (common) Wax". It has been postulated that greater than 50% of most Junk Wax still exists unopened.
It takes incredibly HUGE demand to even temporarily counteract the sheer Galactic Mass of the Junk Wax production. Sorry man, it won't be only another year or two although outliers/exception are always possible but on the whole Junk was and will remain Junk.
IMHO Smart sellers have realized the pandemic bubble burst will have an effect on the Junk for another 1-2 full decades. They will sell what they can now and use the cash toward putting food on table or pay bills, the lucky will invest the funds garnered into Vintage Wax, Vintage Cards or other investments
With all due respect I think you missed the point of my post. I wasbt trying to make the argument that 1989 Upper Deck would outperform PSA 8 Mantles. And I don’t disagree with the contention that the late 1980s and early 1990s were overproduced. Obviously they were.
My argument is that:
Many collectors returned to the hobby in 2020/2021, some left but some stuck around
The market for 1985-1995 unopened is deeper today (more participants) than it was in 2019
we have reached capitulation prices in most unopened 1985-1995
by nature, unopened has limited and decreasing supply
times of market euphoria notwithstanding, most unopened baseball will continue to be an adequate inflation hedge
To conclude, I believe there is such a thing as quality unopened from the junk wax baseball era.
In realm of plausibility, but dumpster divin' jus' ain't my thang
That's how I got started. LOL
When I was 9yo and collecting comic books at the time, I saw a box of cards in a dumpster behind my dad's work.
It had '71 Topps Football and '64 Topps Coins. Told my best friend, and his uncle gave me some '66-69 Topps baseball cards.
And it began....
In realm of plausibility, but dumpster divin' jus' ain't my thang
All good. I need more people to think like you so I can scoop up deals.
I agree, For the junk wax haters it not a comparison to vintage, etc. At some point if it has meaning, it's there to be embraced, and it is not to be mocked. That one should not be so smugly sure of ones taste to the point of denying a possibility of another taste.
Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Agreed. I don’t understand the need to be dismissive and smug. Different strokes for different folks.
Additionally, I think if you took a box of ‘93 Finest Baseball and you compared the return to 1982 Topps Football BBCE authenticated wax over the long haul, the ‘93 Finest would win. They are both going for around $1K at the moment.
And I would add that a rising tide lifts all boats. I’m very bullish on post war vintage going forward. I just don’t have the cash to shop in that range.
@West22 said:
And I would add that a rising tide lifts all boats. I’m very bullish on post war vintage going forward. I just don’t have the cash to shop in that range.
No doubt. As long as folks are collecting then that's good with me. I am not hating on anything anyone collects, because it's probably different from what I'm into anyway.
The more folks collecting means that sooner or later there will be more looking for what I collect, prices go up and all good when I decide to sell the entire thing.
Junk WAX has never been overlooked only over produced . Outliers aside Junk Wax will be the last to increase ina bubble and first to decrease when bubble bursts. This has been witnessed in the hobby more than once and it will happen again. Also those who are around for the next bubble will likley be those for whom the Junk Slab era will have the nostalgia, not the Junk Wax.
Buy what you like of course, but just because you like it does not make it an investment.
P.S. an yeah 93 Finest is a heck of a lot better choice than 90 Fleer or 90 Leaf . The Finest may even be an outlier. BTW: Even though before my time I love 70's FB wax!
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
In realm of plausibility, but dumpster divin' jus' ain't my thang
All good. I need more people to think like you so I can scoop up deals.
Yup. I was able to build a nice vintage graded FB collection when FB was overlooked compared to baseball.
Football has always lagged behind baseball. It's all about quarterbacks...... and a handfull or so of other HOF rookies.
Anyone who has been collecting for a couple decades or so should be way ahead on a cost/value analysist.
No one who has any sense in the hobby thinks of junk wax as a long term investment. It is a transactional product, people buy and sell it all the time because the low price makes the profit bar much lower. The large supply works for this product because it allows the volume buy/break up value equation work, oversupply is a meaningless concept with junk wax.
@ndleo said:
No one who has any sense in the hobby thinks of junk wax as a long term investment.
The execs at the grading companies do.
I think of junk wax like treasury bonds. I can do a lot more with my money but it's safe to put money into junk wax and get it back if you're not buying at the peaks.
I know the value isn't moving much in either direction. You can liquidate it for about what you paid for it and it's more aesthetic than the numbers on a bank account. It surely isn't an investment for profit. It is an investment of my time which I enjoy on occasion. The players were part of my inspiration as a kid and seeing The Glove, Shaq, MJ, Gran Mamma, The Dream or others in a PSA10 puts a smile on my face and it doesn't talk back. 😀
The pandemic was unforseen. Who knows whether there will be more stimulus packages or what the world has in store.
I would love for somebody to start a junk wax burning craze on tiktok. Light up a fake jordan rookie and boxes of commons, cheap inserts, etc. and maybe we can eliminate 10% of the remaining product. Maybe someday, long into the future, people will remember the purge of 80s/90s wax and be glad such an event took place to make wax just slightly more desirable.
@ndleo said:
No one who has any sense in the hobby thinks of junk wax as a long term investment.
The execs at the grading companies do.
I think of junk wax like treasury bonds. I can do a lot more with my money but it's safe to put money into junk wax and get it back if you're not buying at the peaks.
I know the value isn't moving much in either direction. You can liquidate it for about what you paid for it and it's more aesthetic than the numbers on a bank account. It surely isn't an investment for profit. It is an investment of my time which I enjoy on occasion. The players were part of my inspiration as a kid and seeing The Glove, Shaq, MJ, Gran Mamma, The Dream or others in a PSA10 puts a smile on my face and it doesn't talk back. 😀
The pandemic was unforseen. Who knows whether there will be more stimulus packages or what the world has in store.
I would love for somebody to start a junk wax burning craze on tiktok. Light up a fake jordan rookie and boxes of commons, cheap inserts, etc. and maybe we can eliminate 10% of the remaining product. Maybe someday, long into the future, people will remember the purge of 80s/90s wax and be glad such an event took place to make wax just slightly more desirable.
My family is very glad i took Buffets advice* in 2007 and not dealer/seller Hyperbole on Junk Wax
*invest all you can into a quality S&P 500 fund and leave it there
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Yup. I'm sure people are using junk wax to pay the bills. Let's put this in perspective, these are boxes priced less than $40, some can be bought as low as $10-$15 in bulk. No one is going to get hurt buying junk wax.
Many of these responses are just making straw man arguments as if someone came on here and said to buy junk wax as a good investment. You’re confusing the select quality projects of the era that I specifically mentioned was due for a rebound, with 1989 Donruss.
I’ve only been collecting vintage hockey cards for a short period of time.
The superstar prices plummeted in the last two years and commons have gone up (BIN). I’ve spent the past year buying the higher end cards for cheap. Picking my spots of course. The market has been flooded with worthless commons for a pretty penny.
Price rebounds in hockey? Not a chance. Vintage hockey is going to crash hard….
@Raptormaniacs said:
I’ve only been collecting vintage hockey cards for a short period of time.
The superstar prices plummeted in the last two years and commons have gone up (BIN). I’ve spent the past year buying the higher end cards for cheap. Picking my spots of course. The market has been flooded with worthless commons for a pretty penny.
Price rebounds in hockey? Not a chance. Vintage hockey is going to crash hard….
I doubt vintage anything is going to crash, The high grade vintage will hold it's value well.
Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
@Raptormaniacs said:
I’ve only been collecting vintage hockey cards for a short period of time.
The superstar prices plummeted in the last two years and commons have gone up (BIN). I’ve spent the past year buying the higher end cards for cheap. Picking my spots of course. The market has been flooded with worthless commons for a pretty penny.
Price rebounds in hockey? Not a chance. Vintage hockey is going to crash hard….
I doubt vintage anything is going to crash, The high grade vintage will hold it's value well.
Agree Crash on Vintage no chance. However a good question is if there will be good ROI's at current Vintage Hockey prices on the whole? Probably not currently, if they drop 15-20% then perhaps.
In order for the ROI to be good IMHO it must return an average of 7% per yer compounded. Every $100 spent now on a card must be able to easily pull in $140 after selling fees etc , 5 years from now. IMHO to break even with inflation alone it must pull in a minimum of 5% which one can pretty much get now on many savings accounts.
To be clear spending $1000 on card (or anything) that in 5 years you can sell for $1250 before fees or income gains are removed is NOT a good investment.
Of course when one purchases for love of the hobby without intent to sell they will never lose
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
@Raptormaniacs said:
I’ve only been collecting vintage hockey cards for a short period of time.
The superstar prices plummeted in the last two years and commons have gone up (BIN). I’ve spent the past year buying the higher end cards for cheap. Picking my spots of course. The market has been flooded with worthless commons for a pretty penny.
Price rebounds in hockey? Not a chance. Vintage hockey is going to crash hard….
I doubt vintage anything is going to crash, The high grade vintage will hold it's value well.
When I see a psa7 Gretzky RC drop by 20 percent over two years. Messier and Bourque PSA 8 RC by 30 percent. AND falling.
I sold a gretzky opc 8 for 3500 in a few years ago after I bought it for 1200 20 years ago. It’s like 10-12000 now. From a 10 year view it has t crashed. If it gets back to any level I bought or sold it at I’m buying 10 of them. 20-30% off this level is just week hands but not a crash. A crash would have this card at 5k range in my opinion. But still up overall.
@Raptormaniacs said:
I’ve only been collecting vintage hockey cards for a short period of time.
The superstar prices plummeted in the last two years and commons have gone up (BIN). I’ve spent the past year buying the higher end cards for cheap. Picking my spots of course. The market has been flooded with worthless commons for a pretty penny.
Price rebounds in hockey? Not a chance. Vintage hockey is going to crash hard….
I doubt vintage anything is going to crash, The high grade vintage will hold it's value well.
I keep having to come on to this thread and say the same thing, for anyone that is interested, PSA has a database that tracks all this stuff. Pick a widely traded vintage card, any sport, and I can show you a fairly significant decline from the top. Of course there are exceptions, and the one of few stuff will - or should - keep hitting new highs but check out Gretzky rook in PSA 8. Multiple sales over 20k, and a solid 10K card now and falling like a rock. And we aren't even in recession yet, these are still the good times lol.
For the record I never sell, only buy, and don't care too much about card prices. But prices continue to fall for most vintage cards and IMO, we are going to settle in around pre-pandemic + 20% for the widely traded stuff. And I think that is being optimistic. That Gretzky 8 had a sale for 9K July 2021, early pandemic, we are already there.
@Raptormaniacs said:
I’ve only been collecting vintage hockey cards for a short period of time.
The superstar prices plummeted in the last two years and commons have gone up (BIN). I’ve spent the past year buying the higher end cards for cheap. Picking my spots of course. The market has been flooded with worthless commons for a pretty penny.
Price rebounds in hockey? Not a chance. Vintage hockey is going to crash hard….
I doubt vintage anything is going to crash, The high grade vintage will hold it's value well.
When I see a psa7 Gretzky RC drop by 20 percent over two years. Messier and Bourque PSA 8 RC by 30 percent. AND falling.
@Raptormaniacs said:
I’ve only been collecting vintage hockey cards for a short period of time.
The superstar prices plummeted in the last two years and commons have gone up (BIN). I’ve spent the past year buying the higher end cards for cheap. Picking my spots of course. The market has been flooded with worthless commons for a pretty penny.
Price rebounds in hockey? Not a chance. Vintage hockey is going to crash hard….
I doubt vintage anything is going to crash, The high grade vintage will hold it's value well.
I keep having to come on to this thread and say the same thing, for anyone that is interested, PSA has a database that tracks all this stuff. Pick a widely traded vintage card, any sport, and I can show you a fairly significant decline from the top. Of course there are exceptions, and the one of few stuff will - or should - keep hitting new highs but check out Gretzky rook in PSA 8. Multiple sales over 20k, and a solid 10K card now and falling like a rock. And we aren't even in recession yet, these are still the good times lol.
For the record I never sell, only buy, and don't care too much about card prices. But prices continue to fall for most vintage cards and IMO, we are going to settle in around pre-pandemic + 20% for the widely traded stuff. And I think that is being optimistic. That Gretzky 8 had a sale for 9K July 2021, early pandemic, we are already there.
I'm like you in that I don't sell, and it does seem even vintage is dropping. Some things seem to be holding value (rookies, Aaron, Clemente, Mantle, etc...), but you can find a lot of deals on things if you look.
Brown RC, PSA 7 had multiple sales over 14k, recents are in a the 5-8k range and still falling. Possible some of this stuff gets close to pre pandemic prices + inflation over that period, 20%.
Liquidity is leaving the building, will be interesting to see where we are at this time next year with most economists calling for a recession in Q2/Q3. Tough to time markets but trend is pretty clear.
Wanted to comment on something I noticed the other day about 1993 SP Baseball. There are about 50 boxes and a full 18 box case currently listed on eBay. That struck me as a high population of boxes available considering the price and popularity of the product. The lowest priced box is currently $2200. Yet, searching eBay sold since this July, only 2 boxes have been documented sold for over $2200. There were two auctions this summer that ended around $2100+ and the two boxes that were bid for this fall were in the $1940 range.
This box touched the $5,000-$7,000 range at the height of the pandemic frenzy. If these dropped to the $1500-$1750 range that would be roughly late 2018 prices, which would be surprising, but not impossible given the supply currently out there.
Haven't noticed much else lately other than general softness in the unopened market. Anyone else have thoughts?
I bought a 1964 Topps Baseball Wax Pack PSA-8 for $7250 from Memory Lane in January 2023 which I later identified as a Series #4 pack (Hank Aaron Series). In September 2023…a 1964 Topps Baseball Wax Pack PSA-8 (both w/serial # 4xxxxxxx, probably in the same find and submission since serial #’s differed only by the last digit) sold at a Heritage Auction for $12,000. So…there are still vintage unopened going up.
Like Warren Buffett says - “ when others are greedy be fearful, and when others are fearful be greedy.” I always like good quality cards with strong centering of key HOF players - Mays, Mantle, Aaron, Bench, Ryan… over time these will keep going up. Will we see swings in super high end cards like Shoeless, Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig in the $50k+ range? I think when you get cards at higher prices fewer people can pay that kind of money, and people with high net worth have the ability to capitalize when people are short on money and sell because they need funds - have seen it play out numerous times.
Some dealers are trying to fabricate demand by raising prices on commons while the top tier card prices are falling. I haven’t made any purchases in months. I will wait it out….
@Raptormaniacs said:
Some dealers are trying to fabricate demand by raising prices on commons while the top tier card prices are falling. I haven’t made any purchases in months. I will wait it out….
Some dealers - ahem - see dealers in the Portland Oregon suburbs have cards that seemingly sell every few weeks with the same serial number but keep showing up on their site. Almost like it sets a new comp but $$ never seems to change hands.
@Raptormaniacs said:
Some dealers are trying to fabricate demand by raising prices on commons while the top tier card prices are falling. I haven’t made any purchases in months. I will wait it out….
Some dealers - ahem - see dealers in the Portland Oregon suburbs have cards that seemingly sell every few weeks with the same serial number but keep showing up on their site. Almost like it sets a new comp but $$ never seems to change hands.
Well, don’t forget that some pre war card collectors are really fanatics.
😉
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
@KendallCat said:
Like Warren Buffett says - “ when others are greedy be fearful, and when others are fearful be greedy.” I always like good quality cards with strong centering of key HOF players - Mays, Mantle, Aaron, Bench, Ryan… over time these will keep going up. Will we see swings in super high end cards like Shoeless, Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig in the $50k+ range? I think when you get cards at higher prices fewer people can pay that kind of money, and people with high net worth have the ability to capitalize when people are short on money and sell because they need funds - have seen it play out numerous times.
I agree with buying when market sentiment is bottoming. However I’m wondering if the risk/reward is skewed towards the buyer at $2000 for a 1993 SP box when there are 60 or 70 of them sitting on eBay at prices they won’t get.
Feels like a situation where you are better off waiting for forced sellers when there is that much stock. Pre-1980 seems like it’s in far better shape given the relative scarcity of many issues.
Stuff I am following is still dropping. Looking to grab a Gretz #250 PSA 9, seems like multiples listed per week and legit sales still dropping. Suspect we are getting close to bottom, but who knows what the economy is going to do. These drops are happening in good times which is important to remember, we don't know what prices would look like with a recession and 8% unemployment.
@80sOPC said:
Stuff I am following is still dropping. Looking to grab a Gretz #250 PSA 9, seems like multiples listed per week and legit sales still dropping. Suspect we are getting close to bottom, but who knows what the economy is going to do. These drops are happening in good times which is important to remember, we don't know what prices would look like with a recession and 8% unemployment.
Man, I hope we are not hitting that sort of recession even if I'll be able to buy some cards!
I agree that prices seem to be falling, and it's even happening on 50s/60s. That's good because I'm focusing all my buying in those 2 decades right now.
I would imagine prices of higher end items would bottom around confirmation of a recession. That's what stocks typically do and market participants are conditioned to buy the dip. The big question is do we get a deflationary recession or an inflationary recession? I lean towards the latter given the history of those in charge.
I think the damage will be limited either through lower rates or fiscal activities, or both. Given 2024 is an election year. So I see a short recession Q4/Q1 followed by a general easing of conditions and possible fiscal stimulus leading up the November '24.
Also worth considering that first inflation (through increasing SS checks determined by cost of living increase giving many people a "raise") and then higher rates have been somewhat stimulative. Those with spare cash can deploy it into treasuries and money markets to earn 5% risk free. Positive real rates with "official" inflation at 3-4% or so.
So I think what we are seeing now is finally an end to all that excess cash from 2021 and the beginning of some forced selling by some market participants. I have been very active buying specific issues of unopened that is either underpriced IMO or in short supply.
@West22 said:
Also worth considering that first inflation (through increasing SS checks determined by cost of living increase giving many people a "raise") and then higher rates have been somewhat stimulative. Those with spare cash can deploy it into treasuries and money markets to earn 5% risk free. Positive real rates with "official" inflation at 3-4% or so.
Exactly; In order for a Card or any Collectible at the moment to have decent ROI it must out perform the % from safe havens.
Investing 10K now assuming 5%, in 5 years you will have:
Compounded Annually $12,763
Compounded Monthly $12,834
Buying $10K of say 1993SP wax will you do better or worse? Well if in 5 years you cant liquidate it for ~$12,760USD then you've done worse.
Not to say you can't easily beat 5% a year with many cards or card product, but you could just as easily lose varying amounts of the investment.
Those who have 7 figures or more can do better than 5% with safe stuff which is why during times of higher interest rates they are less likley to dump it into collectibles. So there goes all the new money entering the hobby that Mr Goldin alleged was going to increase and increase. He was 100% WRONG! Then again it could simply have been pure hyperbole to reel in more rubes
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
@West22 said:
Also worth considering that first inflation (through increasing SS checks determined by cost of living increase giving many people a "raise") and then higher rates have been somewhat stimulative. Those with spare cash can deploy it into treasuries and money markets to earn 5% risk free. Positive real rates with "official" inflation at 3-4% or so.
Exactly; In order for a Card or any Collectible at the moment to have decent ROI it must out perform the % from safe havens.
Investing 10K now assuming 5%, in 5 years you will have:
Compounded Annually $12,763
Compounded Monthly $12,834
Buying $10K of say 1993SP wax will you do better or worse? Well if in 5 years you cant liquidate it for ~$12,760USD then you've done worse.
Not to say you can't easily beat 5% a year with many cards or card product, but you could just as easily lose varying amounts of the investment.
Those who have 7 figures or more can do better than 5% with safe stuff which is why during times of higher interest rates they are less likley to dump it into collectibles. So there goes all the new money entering the hobby that Mr Goldin alleged was going to increase and increase. He was 100% WRONG! Then again it could simply have been pure hyperbole to reel in more rubes
With at least some "big" money leaving the hobby and near all the bandwagon jumpers gone, card prices dropping on the whole may be just beginning?
_You ain't seen nothin' yet
B-b-b-baby, you just ain't seen n-n-n-nothin' yet
Here's something that you're never gonna forget
B-b-b-baby, you just ain't seen n-n-n-nothin' yet
Bachman-Turner Overdrive
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
@80sOPC said:
Stuff I am following is still dropping. Looking to grab a Gretz #250 PSA 9, seems like multiples listed per week and legit sales still dropping. Suspect we are getting close to bottom, but who knows what the economy is going to do. These drops are happening in good times which is important to remember, we don't know what prices would look like with a recession and 8% unemployment.
As is always the case (in a bull market) there will be plenty that will suffer. The average hobbyist should be fine….
This one will be interesting for football. It just sold on Heritage for $9600 (including buyer's premium) and was immediately flipped to eBay. I'll be curious to see if they turn a profit.
@West22 said:
Also worth considering that first inflation (through increasing SS checks determined by cost of living increase giving many people a "raise") and then higher rates have been somewhat stimulative. Those with spare cash can deploy it into treasuries and money markets to earn 5% risk free. Positive real rates with "official" inflation at 3-4% or so.
Exactly; In order for a Card or any Collectible at the moment to have decent ROI it must out perform the % from safe havens.
Investing 10K now assuming 5%, in 5 years you will have:
Compounded Annually $12,763
Compounded Monthly $12,834
Buying $10K of say 1993SP wax will you do better or worse? Well if in 5 years you cant liquidate it for ~$12,760USD then you've done worse.
Not to say you can't easily beat 5% a year with many cards or card product, but you could just as easily lose varying amounts of the investment.
Those who have 7 figures or more can do better than 5% with safe stuff which is why during times of higher interest rates they are less likley to dump it into collectibles. So there goes all the new money entering the hobby that Mr Goldin alleged was going to increase and increase. He was 100% WRONG! Then again it could simply have been pure hyperbole to reel in more rubes
With at least some "big" money leaving the hobby and near all the bandwagon jumpers gone, card prices dropping on the whole may be just beginning?
_You ain't seen nothin' yet
B-b-b-baby, you just ain't seen n-n-n-nothin' yet
Here's something that you're never gonna forget
B-b-b-baby, you just ain't seen n-n-n-nothin' yet
@West22 said:
Also worth considering that first inflation (through increasing SS checks determined by cost of living increase giving many people a "raise") and then higher rates have been somewhat stimulative. Those with spare cash can deploy it into treasuries and money markets to earn 5% risk free. Positive real rates with "official" inflation at 3-4% or so.
Exactly; In order for a Card or any Collectible at the moment to have decent ROI it must out perform the % from safe havens.
Investing 10K now assuming 5%, in 5 years you will have:
Compounded Annually $12,763
Compounded Monthly $12,834
Buying $10K of say 1993SP wax will you do better or worse? Well if in 5 years you cant liquidate it for ~$12,760USD then you've done worse.
Not to say you can't easily beat 5% a year with many cards or card product, but you could just as easily lose varying amounts of the investment.
Those who have 7 figures or more can do better than 5% with safe stuff which is why during times of higher interest rates they are less likley to dump it into collectibles. So there goes all the new money entering the hobby that Mr Goldin alleged was going to increase and increase. He was 100% WRONG! Then again it could simply have been pure hyperbole to reel in more rubes
With at least some "big" money leaving the hobby and near all the bandwagon jumpers gone, card prices dropping on the whole may be just beginning?
_You ain't seen nothin' yet
B-b-b-baby, you just ain't seen n-n-n-nothin' yet
Here's something that you're never gonna forget
B-b-b-baby, you just ain't seen n-n-n-nothin' yet
Bachman-Turner Overdrive
Takin Care Of Business
Hey man Let It Ride
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
And I always think it's funny when someone mentions 'upcoming recession' like we haven't been in one
It’s quite easy to paper over a recession with cooked inflation numbers. The average Joe tends to think in nominal terms and isn’t good at math. So maybe they got a 10% raise since 2020 while inflation in key areas like lumber, used cars and skilled labor (car mechanics, carpenters plumbers electricians etc) up something like 30% over three years. Then you have people like Paul Krugman, Larry Summers and Lael Brainard making policy recommendations and they are completely removed from reality, talking about how we beat inflation because CPI ex food, energy, housing, service and used cars is down. Good thing no one needs food, energy, housing, a reliable car or to eat at a restaurant again! When a measure becomes a goal it ceases to become an accurate measure and so forth. Not trying to blame any particular party as I think all politicians play this game. I just think economists and career academics in general are completely removed from reality.
Long story short they want stable growth and I hope they get it but history shows they are better at breaking things and then overreacting.
Comments
That's how I got started. LOL
When I was 9yo and collecting comic books at the time, I saw a box of cards in a dumpster behind my dad's work.
It had '71 Topps Football and '64 Topps Coins. Told my best friend, and his uncle gave me some '66-69 Topps baseball cards.
And it began....
I would have liked for the Jim Brown rookie to> @West22 said:
I agree, For the junk wax haters it not a comparison to vintage, etc. At some point if it has meaning, it's there to be embraced, and it is not to be mocked. That one should not be so smugly sure of ones taste to the point of denying a possibility of another taste.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Agreed. I don’t understand the need to be dismissive and smug. Different strokes for different folks.
Additionally, I think if you took a box of ‘93 Finest Baseball and you compared the return to 1982 Topps Football BBCE authenticated wax over the long haul, the ‘93 Finest would win. They are both going for around $1K at the moment.
And I would add that a rising tide lifts all boats. I’m very bullish on post war vintage going forward. I just don’t have the cash to shop in that range.
No doubt. As long as folks are collecting then that's good with me. I am not hating on anything anyone collects, because it's probably different from what I'm into anyway.
The more folks collecting means that sooner or later there will be more looking for what I collect, prices go up and all good when I decide to sell the entire thing.
Yup. I was able to build a nice vintage graded FB collection when FB was overlooked compared to baseball.
Junk WAX has never been overlooked only over produced . Outliers aside Junk Wax will be the last to increase ina bubble and first to decrease when bubble bursts. This has been witnessed in the hobby more than once and it will happen again. Also those who are around for the next bubble will likley be those for whom the Junk Slab era will have the nostalgia, not the Junk Wax.
Buy what you like of course, but just because you like it does not make it an investment.
P.S. an yeah 93 Finest is a heck of a lot better choice than 90 Fleer or 90 Leaf . The Finest may even be an outlier. BTW: Even though before my time I love 70's FB wax!
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Rising inflation raises all boats - fixed it for ya - the floor is moving up across the board…
Football has always lagged behind baseball. It's all about quarterbacks...... and a handfull or so of other HOF rookies.
Anyone who has been collecting for a couple decades or so should be way ahead on a cost/value analysist.
No one who has any sense in the hobby thinks of junk wax as a long term investment. It is a transactional product, people buy and sell it all the time because the low price makes the profit bar much lower. The large supply works for this product because it allows the volume buy/break up value equation work, oversupply is a meaningless concept with junk wax.
The execs at the grading companies do.
I think of junk wax like treasury bonds. I can do a lot more with my money but it's safe to put money into junk wax and get it back if you're not buying at the peaks.
I know the value isn't moving much in either direction. You can liquidate it for about what you paid for it and it's more aesthetic than the numbers on a bank account. It surely isn't an investment for profit. It is an investment of my time which I enjoy on occasion. The players were part of my inspiration as a kid and seeing The Glove, Shaq, MJ, Gran Mamma, The Dream or others in a PSA10 puts a smile on my face and it doesn't talk back. 😀
The pandemic was unforseen. Who knows whether there will be more stimulus packages or what the world has in store.
I would love for somebody to start a junk wax burning craze on tiktok. Light up a fake jordan rookie and boxes of commons, cheap inserts, etc. and maybe we can eliminate 10% of the remaining product. Maybe someday, long into the future, people will remember the purge of 80s/90s wax and be glad such an event took place to make wax just slightly more desirable.
My family is very glad i took Buffets advice* in 2007 and not dealer/seller Hyperbole on Junk Wax
*invest all you can into a quality S&P 500 fund and leave it there
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Yup. I'm sure people are using junk wax to pay the bills. Let's put this in perspective, these are boxes priced less than $40, some can be bought as low as $10-$15 in bulk. No one is going to get hurt buying junk wax.
almost at 2.5 million graded basketball from 2019 alone . That shouldn't be a problem right ?
We are in the Junk Slab era
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Many of these responses are just making straw man arguments as if someone came on here and said to buy junk wax as a good investment. You’re confusing the select quality projects of the era that I specifically mentioned was due for a rebound, with 1989 Donruss.
I’ve only been collecting vintage hockey cards for a short period of time.
The superstar prices plummeted in the last two years and commons have gone up (BIN). I’ve spent the past year buying the higher end cards for cheap. Picking my spots of course. The market has been flooded with worthless commons for a pretty penny.
Price rebounds in hockey? Not a chance. Vintage hockey is going to crash hard….
I doubt vintage anything is going to crash, The high grade vintage will hold it's value well.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Agree Crash on Vintage no chance. However a good question is if there will be good ROI's at current Vintage Hockey prices on the whole? Probably not currently, if they drop 15-20% then perhaps.
In order for the ROI to be good IMHO it must return an average of 7% per yer compounded. Every $100 spent now on a card must be able to easily pull in $140 after selling fees etc , 5 years from now. IMHO to break even with inflation alone it must pull in a minimum of 5% which one can pretty much get now on many savings accounts.
To be clear spending $1000 on card (or anything) that in 5 years you can sell for $1250 before fees or income gains are removed is NOT a good investment.
Of course when one purchases for love of the hobby without intent to sell they will never lose
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
When I see a psa7 Gretzky RC drop by 20 percent over two years. Messier and Bourque PSA 8 RC by 30 percent. AND falling.
I think that can be defined as a crash…
I sold a gretzky opc 8 for 3500 in a few years ago after I bought it for 1200 20 years ago. It’s like 10-12000 now. From a 10 year view it has t crashed. If it gets back to any level I bought or sold it at I’m buying 10 of them. 20-30% off this level is just week hands but not a crash. A crash would have this card at 5k range in my opinion. But still up overall.
I keep having to come on to this thread and say the same thing, for anyone that is interested, PSA has a database that tracks all this stuff. Pick a widely traded vintage card, any sport, and I can show you a fairly significant decline from the top. Of course there are exceptions, and the one of few stuff will - or should - keep hitting new highs but check out Gretzky rook in PSA 8. Multiple sales over 20k, and a solid 10K card now and falling like a rock. And we aren't even in recession yet, these are still the good times lol.
For the record I never sell, only buy, and don't care too much about card prices. But prices continue to fall for most vintage cards and IMO, we are going to settle in around pre-pandemic + 20% for the widely traded stuff. And I think that is being optimistic. That Gretzky 8 had a sale for 9K July 2021, early pandemic, we are already there.
That Gretz is down 50% ....and falling:
https://www.psacard.com/auctionprices/hockey-cards/1979-o-pee-chee/wayne-gretzky/values/321695#g=7
Dave and adams price is 9000 for one pack of 1979 opc. Last one I bought I paid 350 15 years ago
I'm like you in that I don't sell, and it does seem even vintage is dropping. Some things seem to be holding value (rookies, Aaron, Clemente, Mantle, etc...), but you can find a lot of deals on things if you look.
I've been finding lots of 'deals'.
1969 Topps BKB falling a lot - some nice buying opportunities out there.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
Could it be that it's Summer, or the off season? I am waiting for the NFL season to see what happens. In particular the 1958 Topps Jim Brown Rookie.
The infusion of big money into the market lead to huge gains the last 5 years. Corrections are going to happen,
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Brown RC, PSA 7 had multiple sales over 14k, recents are in a the 5-8k range and still falling. Possible some of this stuff gets close to pre pandemic prices + inflation over that period, 20%.
Liquidity is leaving the building, will be interesting to see where we are at this time next year with most economists calling for a recession in Q2/Q3. Tough to time markets but trend is pretty clear.
Wanted to comment on something I noticed the other day about 1993 SP Baseball. There are about 50 boxes and a full 18 box case currently listed on eBay. That struck me as a high population of boxes available considering the price and popularity of the product. The lowest priced box is currently $2200. Yet, searching eBay sold since this July, only 2 boxes have been documented sold for over $2200. There were two auctions this summer that ended around $2100+ and the two boxes that were bid for this fall were in the $1940 range.
This box touched the $5,000-$7,000 range at the height of the pandemic frenzy. If these dropped to the $1500-$1750 range that would be roughly late 2018 prices, which would be surprising, but not impossible given the supply currently out there.
Haven't noticed much else lately other than general softness in the unopened market. Anyone else have thoughts?
I bought a 1964 Topps Baseball Wax Pack PSA-8 for $7250 from Memory Lane in January 2023 which I later identified as a Series #4 pack (Hank Aaron Series). In September 2023…a 1964 Topps Baseball Wax Pack PSA-8 (both w/serial # 4xxxxxxx, probably in the same find and submission since serial #’s differed only by the last digit) sold at a Heritage Auction for $12,000. So…there are still vintage unopened going up.
Like Warren Buffett says - “ when others are greedy be fearful, and when others are fearful be greedy.” I always like good quality cards with strong centering of key HOF players - Mays, Mantle, Aaron, Bench, Ryan… over time these will keep going up. Will we see swings in super high end cards like Shoeless, Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig in the $50k+ range? I think when you get cards at higher prices fewer people can pay that kind of money, and people with high net worth have the ability to capitalize when people are short on money and sell because they need funds - have seen it play out numerous times.
Some dealers are trying to fabricate demand by raising prices on commons while the top tier card prices are falling. I haven’t made any purchases in months. I will wait it out….
IMO, downward trend for vintage baseball collector grade (5-7) and stabilizing depending upon eye appeal. Pops increasing for lower grade (1-4).
On VCP they now have latest movers. The cards going up and down. I have a few of both.
I collect hall of fame rookie cards, https://www.instagram.com/stwainfan/
Some dealers - ahem - see dealers in the Portland Oregon suburbs have cards that seemingly sell every few weeks with the same serial number but keep showing up on their site. Almost like it sets a new comp but $$ never seems to change hands.
Mm> @KendallCat said:
Well, don’t forget that some pre war card collectors are really fanatics.
😉
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
I agree with buying when market sentiment is bottoming. However I’m wondering if the risk/reward is skewed towards the buyer at $2000 for a 1993 SP box when there are 60 or 70 of them sitting on eBay at prices they won’t get.
Feels like a situation where you are better off waiting for forced sellers when there is that much stock. Pre-1980 seems like it’s in far better shape given the relative scarcity of many issues.
I think you have better luck for a $5 card to turn into a $10 or $15 card due to inflation…HOF card, limited insert/parallel/refractor etc
I mean a Big Mac meal was $4 10 years ago and now it $10
Stuff I am following is still dropping. Looking to grab a Gretz #250 PSA 9, seems like multiples listed per week and legit sales still dropping. Suspect we are getting close to bottom, but who knows what the economy is going to do. These drops are happening in good times which is important to remember, we don't know what prices would look like with a recession and 8% unemployment.
Man, I hope we are not hitting that sort of recession even if I'll be able to buy some cards!
I agree that prices seem to be falling, and it's even happening on 50s/60s. That's good because I'm focusing all my buying in those 2 decades right now.
I would imagine prices of higher end items would bottom around confirmation of a recession. That's what stocks typically do and market participants are conditioned to buy the dip. The big question is do we get a deflationary recession or an inflationary recession? I lean towards the latter given the history of those in charge.
I think the damage will be limited either through lower rates or fiscal activities, or both. Given 2024 is an election year. So I see a short recession Q4/Q1 followed by a general easing of conditions and possible fiscal stimulus leading up the November '24.
Also worth considering that first inflation (through increasing SS checks determined by cost of living increase giving many people a "raise") and then higher rates have been somewhat stimulative. Those with spare cash can deploy it into treasuries and money markets to earn 5% risk free. Positive real rates with "official" inflation at 3-4% or so.
So I think what we are seeing now is finally an end to all that excess cash from 2021 and the beginning of some forced selling by some market participants. I have been very active buying specific issues of unopened that is either underpriced IMO or in short supply.
Exactly; In order for a Card or any Collectible at the moment to have decent ROI it must out perform the % from safe havens.
Investing 10K now assuming 5%, in 5 years you will have:
Compounded Annually $12,763
Compounded Monthly $12,834
Buying $10K of say 1993SP wax will you do better or worse? Well if in 5 years you cant liquidate it for ~$12,760USD then you've done worse.
Not to say you can't easily beat 5% a year with many cards or card product, but you could just as easily lose varying amounts of the investment.
Those who have 7 figures or more can do better than 5% with safe stuff which is why during times of higher interest rates they are less likley to dump it into collectibles. So there goes all the new money entering the hobby that Mr Goldin alleged was going to increase and increase. He was 100% WRONG! Then again it could simply have been pure hyperbole to reel in more rubes
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
With at least some "big" money leaving the hobby and near all the bandwagon jumpers gone, card prices dropping on the whole may be just beginning?
_You ain't seen nothin' yet
B-b-b-baby, you just ain't seen n-n-n-nothin' yet
Here's something that you're never gonna forget
B-b-b-baby, you just ain't seen n-n-n-nothin' yet
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
As is always the case (in a bull market) there will be plenty that will suffer. The average hobbyist should be fine….
If you're collecting hockey, card ladder says its down 30%+ for the year. Baseball was down 15%, I think.
And I always think it's funny when someone mentions 'upcoming recession' like we haven't been in one since you know who stole you know what.
This one will be interesting for football. It just sold on Heritage for $9600 (including buyer's premium) and was immediately flipped to eBay. I'll be curious to see if they turn a profit.
Takin Care Of Business
Hey man Let It Ride
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Tim Bachman, guitarist for BTO, passed away May 1 of this year
It’s quite easy to paper over a recession with cooked inflation numbers. The average Joe tends to think in nominal terms and isn’t good at math. So maybe they got a 10% raise since 2020 while inflation in key areas like lumber, used cars and skilled labor (car mechanics, carpenters plumbers electricians etc) up something like 30% over three years. Then you have people like Paul Krugman, Larry Summers and Lael Brainard making policy recommendations and they are completely removed from reality, talking about how we beat inflation because CPI ex food, energy, housing, service and used cars is down. Good thing no one needs food, energy, housing, a reliable car or to eat at a restaurant again! When a measure becomes a goal it ceases to become an accurate measure and so forth. Not trying to blame any particular party as I think all politicians play this game. I just think economists and career academics in general are completely removed from reality.
Long story short they want stable growth and I hope they get it but history shows they are better at breaking things and then overreacting.