@mexpo75 said:
We have all seen the big price run ups and the subsequent declines in the past two years or so. When do you guys think there will be a price run up again?
Regarding the OP's point, I see a few select cards maybe making a run at their Lockdown highs. For example the 2001 SP Authentic Tiger Woods Auto PSA 10 hit $105K at the peak and had a half dozen or so sales over $80K. The most recent ones finished at around $40-$50K. I can see a huge end of career rally for Tiger.
Interestingly I followed the pop on this card and it was 156 on April 14, 2019 (I know because I wrote a post that day referring to the pop) but now it is 135? Does anyone know why the pop was reduced by 21?
One positive of the junk era is that it gives collectors,not investors, a chance to collect their favorite team/player cheaply. And this enjoyment may induce them to stay in the hobby. Which we need to prosper, more involvement.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
One positive of the junk era is that it gives collectors,not investors, a chance to collect their favorite team/player cheaply. And this enjoyment may induce them to stay in the hobby. Which we need to prosper, more involvement.
I've been pecking away at a 1988 Topps Big set for exactly this reason.
Prices still dropping for everything I follow, popular stuff like Gretzky and Lemieux rookies.
Looks like that Brown peaked at north of 15k, the Alcindor multiple sales at 75k, and the Payton had multiple sales over 100k.
Hard to believe there isn’t more to come, these drops are occurring during full employment. Pre-covid the Payton was a 22k card forever fwiw. Not saying its going there but that was only 40 months ago and its dropping like a stone.
@80sOPC said:
Prices still dropping for everything I follow, popular stuff like Gretzky and Lemieux rookies.
Looks like that Brown peaked at north of 15k, the Alcindor multiple sales at 75k, and the Payton had multiple sales over 100k.
Hard to believe there isn’t more to come, these drops are occurring during full employment. Pre-covid the Payton was a 22k card forever fwiw. Not saying its going there but that was only 40 months ago and its dropping like a stone.
I'm seeing this too. Was following a 78 Murray & Molitor/Trammell PSA 10 recently on an auction that sold for a lot less than what they were during Covid. Unopened vintage is coming down too in the auctions, but trying to grade those these days makes that a non-factor.
I don’t get the sense most folks know what is happening, save for most unique ultra low pop stuff, everything is getting hammered. Now, still up from pre-Covid, but way off, even really great stuff.
I haven’t been much of a buyer through Covid, I saw this play out in the 90s so had a good sense on how this would play out. Bunch of new entrants, exuberance, a huge bubble that pops, and lots of the new entrants leaving. The silver lining is the hobby is still much bigger and healthier then before.
I think there will be fantastic deals this time next year as we get nearer to a bottom. Impossible to time bottoms but still seems to be lots of downward pressure on prices.
Most of us simply will not live long enough to see another pandemic like run up. Many other hobbies are going through exactly the same. Plenty o'whining on the Comic book front for example.
There will always be hot items of the day or outliers but the days of nearly every slabbed card being "hot" may never return nor should they. By that I mean Cards like 1990 Fleer Shawn Kemp's (or insert name of other Junk Wax card here) never had any logical reason for selling at $300 level.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
1981 to 1985 was the precursor to the big league junk with ramped up production but nothing like what was coming down the pipe in 1986.
Thus, look at years 1986 to the mid 1990's as the true junk wax era. Topps, Donruss, Fleer, and all the rest that came with it.
That said, junk wax years are also vintage years as we move further away from that by gone time. I think it's pretty darn cool that many can buy and actually rip VINTAGE without breaking the bank or a care in the world about it.
1980 on down are what I view as "old school vintage".
I'll have a better price judge soon enough. I have a bunch of vintage football and basketball up on the current REA auction. And I have a number I'm hoping for. We'll see if I get it.
@softparade said:
I think it's pretty darn cool that many can buy and actually rip VINTAGE without breaking the bank or a care in the world about it.
But I still open packs of '88 Topps with more deliberation and care than those clown dealers on the Loupe app ripping through modern like a guerilla through a banana.
@Nathaniel1960 said:
1986 Donruss and Fleer not over-produced.
Difficult to say if that comment is even partially right or wrong but enough certainly exist for them to qualify as "Junk Wax" adjacent at minimum.
I do recall as child my local comic book shop which never sold cards had a huge plastic tub of 1986 Donruss Wax. First time I saw them there must have been 500+ rack packs there.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I’m starting to see cracks forming in the specific years that I’ve been collecting. Prices have dropped 30 percent. There is a huge amount of graded stuff starting to flood onto the market. The most telling sign is that star cards are going for the same as commons. I think that in a year (or two), people will be able to pick up some real bargains…
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
One positive of the junk era is that it gives collectors,not investors, a chance to collect their favorite team/player cheaply. And this enjoyment may induce them to stay in the hobby. Which we need to prosper, more involvement.
I've been pecking away at a 1988 Topps Big set for exactly this reason.
Do u have any extra graded Topps Big ? Thinking of doing that set.
Like PSA 9.. Lmk, Thx
@mexpo75 said:
We have all seen the big price run ups and the subsequent declines in the past two years or so. When do you guys think there will be a price run up again?
Only those very young may have a chance to see a 2020-21 run up again in their lifetimes?
Thought of this thread when I noticed a guy driving around town here recently in an exceptionally nice classic car with a license plate that said 52MAYS. I am willing to bet just about everyone here can guess what he said when chatting with him about how he funded the purchase price of the car.
@stwainfan said:
Jim Palmer cards are undervalued.
Better than Bert Blyleven cards. I vagally remember a discussion comparing them. First ballot HOFer vs 14th time on ballot to get in. No brainer vs eh, good enough.........
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
One positive of the junk era is that it gives collectors,not investors, a chance to collect their favorite team/player cheaply. And this enjoyment may induce them to stay in the hobby. Which we need to prosper, more involvement.
I've been pecking away at a 1988 Topps Big set for exactly this reason.
Do u have any extra graded Topps Big ? Thinking of doing that set.
Like PSA 9.. Lmk, Thx
Sorry. I don't. I usually sell my dupes pretty quickly after they are graded. When I grade my next batch I will keep you in mind.
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
One positive of the junk era is that it gives collectors,not investors, a chance to collect their favorite team/player cheaply. And this enjoyment may induce them to stay in the hobby. Which we need to prosper, more involvement.
I've been pecking away at a 1988 Topps Big set for exactly this reason.
Do u have any extra graded Topps Big ? Thinking of doing that set.
Like PSA 9.. Lmk, Thx
Sorry. I don't. I usually sell my dupes pretty quickly after they are graded. When I grade my next batch I will keep you in mind.
@80sOPC said:
Prices still dropping for everything I follow, popular stuff like Gretzky and Lemieux rookies.
Looks like that Brown peaked at north of 15k, the Alcindor multiple sales at 75k, and the Payton had multiple sales over 100k.
Hard to believe there isn’t more to come, these drops are occurring during full employment. Pre-covid the Payton was a 22k card forever fwiw. Not saying its going there but that was only 40 months ago and its dropping like a stone.
I would like to highlight the word "forever" in this post. This is the case on a lot of marquee cards. They had minor 10-20% up and down moves for a long time, 10-15 years. We then saw massive spikes. Since there was a lot of ground to make up from the non-movement period, a lot of these cards should hold on to respectful gains once the fall stops. That assumes PSA is still in business and navigates the second rapid change in the business model in 3 years.
So a month or so ago I posted about getting hammered on some football cards I cosigned to Robert Edwards. One of the few cards that did well was a 1950 Jim Finks HoF rookie PSA 8. It sold for $280, which is the second highest that card has ever sold for.
Tonight I got a registry removal request for it. 5 minutes later I saw it posted on Ebay... for $781 - supposedly marked down from $919! (Funny aside: after asking almost 300% more, he's still charging $10 for shipping.)
So at least one person thinks prices are still majorly on the rise!
@Copyboy1 said:
So a month or so ago I posted about getting hammered on some football cards I cosigned to Robert Edwards. One of the few cards that did well was a 1950 Jim Finks HoF rookie PSA 8. It sold for $280, which is the second highest that card has ever sold for.
Tonight I got a registry removal request for it. 5 minutes later I saw it posted on Ebay... for $781 - supposedly marked down from $919! (Funny aside: after asking almost 300% more, he's still charging $10 for shipping.)
So at least one person thinks prices are still majorly on the rise!
I bought the card for $781, so now you can post how you got hammered on this card too.
@stwainfan said:
My 61 Fleer Meredith has taken a big drop in price.
I remember Jack Kemp’s cards were always in demand and often an anchor in early to mid 60s sets: they’ve really come down in the last 10 years. His 1965 Tall Boy is a good example.
Kiss me once, shame on you. Kiss me twice.....let's party.
@stwainfan said:
My 61 Fleer Meredith has taken a big drop in price.
I remember Jack Kemp’s cards were always in demand and often an anchor in early to mid 60s sets: they’ve really come down in the last 10 years. His 1965 Tall Boy is a good example.
The Meredith card is some what rare. That's why i'm kind of surprised by the drop.
@stwainfan said:
Jim Palmer cards are undervalued.
If based on numbers and metrics perhaps that is correct, but pure on field performance is only one factor in the going rate of a players cards. Mantle and Ryan are proof of that neither are Card Royalty based solely on numbers.
Jim's Jockey underwear Ad's and Monday Night Baseball stint were before my time, and to be sure the former are certainly not a selling point for the majority of the demo that collects 1970's or Vintage cards.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
It was timely stumbling onto this thread today. I don’t have deep enough pockets to shop in the pre-1984 era so you vintage boys will have to weigh in on those prices. However, it seems to me we are reaching capitulation level prices in the stuff I collect which is unopened baseball 1985-1995. I just started picking up a few items on my watch list over the last few weeks and I was surprised to find that some sellers were accepting offers that were 35% below their asking. Just a week ago I picked up a 1993 series 1 jumbo box (5 gold per pack) and two gold 500 card vending boxes, and the hammer price was right around mid summer 2020 levels.
Likewise, other stuff I watch such as 1993 Finest baseball, 1987 and 1990 OPC baseball, and ‘89 UD appear oversupplied and trending down pricewise. Now I think we still have a ways to go because I see a metric ton of stuff such as 1990 leaf baseball, early 90’s Fleer basketball still sitting stagnant on eBay with many sellers still clinging to hopes of a bounce back to peak Covid prices.
That being said, I feel that the next year could be an excellent opportunity in 1980s and 90’s high quality unopened and graded singles of popular/HOF players with good liquid markets. I emphasize quality here - I picked up those specific ‘93 Topps items because they are fairly rare compared to other packout styles from that year and command a premium. I feel now is a good time to pick up some of those bucket list items that are long term holds.
Even though many of those who returned to the hobby at the peak Covid prices likely got burned when the bottom fell out, that judging by the eBay sales and Facebook group activity I see, enough new people have stuck around that prices should bottom at or around their current trough - which, importantly, is still higher than 2019 levels. I’m going to dip my toes in here.
@Willymac said:
I’ve said many times - high grade 90’s inserts and numbered will remain solid and have been ticking up…..Also with inflation the floor for hall of famers will move from a buck or two to 5 or 10 over the next few….so will shipping and supplies expenses but still there is an inflation play for 90’s regular and insert/parallel for HOF’s
I fully agree. I collect mostly late 90's baseball, especially refractors, and while they didn't boom in 2021, they have consistently increased in value. 1998 & 1999 Topps Chrome are such great sets to collect. So many great HOF'ers & non-HOF stars, and the refractors are SUPER tough, especially in 9 or 10 grade. It's crazy by today's standards, but a 500 card set with only a single parallel - inserted at 1:12 packs - makes it tough to come across any particular card.
I just consigned a bunch of extras 90s refractors I had to 4 Sharp Corners. The sales were much lower than I expected. My 98 Topps Chrome Randy Johnson Refractor PSA 9 sold for $70. 2002 Topps Chrome Craig Biggio Refractor PSA 10 for $65. Not rare cards by any means but thought they would go higher. It was like this across the board for all of the modern items that I consigned.
@West22 said:
It was timely stumbling onto this thread today. I don’t have deep enough pockets to shop in the pre-1984 era so you vintage boys will have to weigh in on those prices. However, it seems to me we are reaching capitulation level prices in the stuff I collect which is unopened baseball 1985-1995. I just started picking up a few items on my watch list over the last few weeks and I was surprised to find that some sellers were accepting offers that were 35% below their asking. Just a week ago I picked up a 1993 series 1 jumbo box (5 gold per pack) and two gold 500 card vending boxes, and the hammer price was right around mid summer 2020 levels.
Likewise, other stuff I watch such as 1993 Finest baseball, 1987 and 1990 OPC baseball, and ‘89 UD appear oversupplied and trending down pricewise. Now I think we still have a ways to go because I see a metric ton of stuff such as 1990 leaf baseball, early 90’s Fleer basketball still sitting stagnant on eBay with many sellers still clinging to hopes of a bounce back to peak Covid prices.
That being said, I feel that the next year could be an excellent opportunity in 1980s and 90’s high quality unopened and graded singles of popular/HOF players with good liquid markets. I emphasize quality here - I picked up those specific ‘93 Topps items because they are fairly rare compared to other packout styles from that year and command a premium. I feel now is a good time to pick up some of those bucket list items that are long term holds.
Even though many of those who returned to the hobby at the peak Covid prices likely got burned when the bottom fell out, that judging by the eBay sales and Facebook group activity I see, enough new people have stuck around that prices should bottom at or around their current trough - which, importantly, is still higher than 2019 levels. I’m going to dip my toes in here.
Yep it's called JUNK Wax for a reason. Other apropos name might be "Trash wax", "Hot Garbage Wax" "Roach Wax" or "Dirt (common) Wax". It has been postulated that greater than 50% of most Junk Wax still exists unopened.
It takes incredibly HUGE demand to even temporarily counteract the sheer Galactic Mass of the Junk Wax production. Sorry man, it won't be only another year or two although outliers/exception are always possible but on the whole Junk was and will remain Junk.
IMHO Smart sellers have realized the pandemic bubble burst will have an effect on the Junk for another 1-2 full decades. They will sell what they can now and use the cash toward putting food on table or pay bills, the lucky will invest the funds garnered into Vintage Wax, Vintage Cards or other investments
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
^ P.S. be glad the stuff you like to collect is more than plentiful will get even lower in price. The old saying "buy what you like, and you will never lose" applies
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Surely folks are not putting the limited inserts and parallels (specifically the numbered) of the 90’s into the junk wax category…that would be nonsense…the issue may be the number of different sets (total volume of varieties) but still…a 90’s atomic /100 PSA Griffey/Jeter HOF’er I’ll put up against a lot of vintage HOF over the next 10 years…lots of the rare vintage has a higher pop than some of these 90’s inserts/parallel cards have in total print runs….not to mention some of these 90’s cards just look incredible and ahead of their time technically
Yep it's called JUNK Wax for a reason. Other apropos name might be "Trash wax", "Hot Garbage Wax" "Roach Wax" or "Dirt (common) Wax". It has been postulated that greater than 50% of most Junk Wax still exists unopened.
It takes incredibly HUGE demand to even temporarily counteract the sheer Galactic Mass of the Junk Wax production. Sorry man, it won't be only another year or two although outliers/exception are always possible but on the whole Junk was and will remain Junk.
IMHO Smart sellers have realized the pandemic bubble burst will have an effect on the Junk for another 1-2 full decades. They will sell what they can now and use the cash toward putting food on table or pay bills, the lucky will invest the funds garnered into Vintage Wax, Vintage Cards or other investments
With all due respect I think you missed the point of my post. I wasbt trying to make the argument that 1989 Upper Deck would outperform PSA 8 Mantles. And I don’t disagree with the contention that the late 1980s and early 1990s were overproduced. Obviously they were.
My argument is that:
Many collectors returned to the hobby in 2020/2021, some left but some stuck around
The market for 1985-1995 unopened is deeper today (more participants) than it was in 2019
we have reached capitulation prices in most unopened 1985-1995
by nature, unopened has limited and decreasing supply
times of market euphoria notwithstanding, most unopened baseball will continue to be an adequate inflation hedge
To conclude, I believe there is such a thing as quality unopened from the junk wax baseball era. Select products of unopened 1993 Topps, unopened 1993 Finest, 1993/1994 SP, 1987 and 1990 OPC. These products are in short supply and price is set on the margin. I believe these items have reached their bottom price. as I mentioned previously I do believe other segments of the market, like 1989 UD and early 1990s Fleer basketball, have a little ways to go down due to both the heights of the original euphoria and the massive supply.
Yep it's called JUNK Wax for a reason. Other apropos name might be "Trash wax", "Hot Garbage Wax" "Roach Wax" or "Dirt (common) Wax". It has been postulated that greater than 50% of most Junk Wax still exists unopened.
It takes incredibly HUGE demand to even temporarily counteract the sheer Galactic Mass of the Junk Wax production. Sorry man, it won't be only another year or two although outliers/exception are always possible but on the whole Junk was and will remain Junk.
IMHO Smart sellers have realized the pandemic bubble burst will have an effect on the Junk for another 1-2 full decades. They will sell what they can now and use the cash toward putting food on table or pay bills, the lucky will invest the funds garnered into Vintage Wax, Vintage Cards or other investments
With all due respect I think you missed the point of my post. I wasbt trying to make the argument that 1989 Upper Deck would outperform PSA 8 Mantles. And I don’t disagree with the contention that the late 1980s and early 1990s were overproduced. Obviously they were.
My argument is that:
Many collectors returned to the hobby in 2020/2021, some left but some stuck around
The market for 1985-1995 unopened is deeper today (more participants) than it was in 2019
we have reached capitulation prices in most unopened 1985-1995
by nature, unopened has limited and decreasing supply
times of market euphoria notwithstanding, most unopened baseball will continue to be an adequate inflation hedge
To conclude, I believe there is such a thing as quality unopened from the junk wax baseball era.
In realm of plausibility, but dumpster divin' jus' ain't my thang
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I bought a large “junk era” lot locally that had about 175 boxes and sets.
I sold though most of it and made a nice gain. It doesn’t matter what I think the value is in the future, if you can make money on it, someone will buy it.
I think the hobby is in a good place right now. Prices aren’t crazy and there is good selection at all price points. Even though I avoid most Panini products, I could have bought all new FB releases at decent prices, which hasn't been the case the past 2 years.
Comments
@82FootballWaxMemorys
@mintonlypls
Thank you, gentlemen.
I definitely have a few from the era…
…and now I know what they’re called!
What can I say? The ‘98 Yankees are still the best team ever assembled, record wise. 😁
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
I have my collection ending in 1980 with a Rickey Henderson RC PSA-9…chose to stop collecting at my definition of the junk wax era.
I had some PSA-10s RCs from the 1980s…but sold during junk wax bubble.
As a new product box buyer, you could probably call most current boxes "junk wax" as well but for different reasons.
Nothing like buying a $400 box and pulling a 4th rd WR Auto Patch RC and 10 base cards.
Ohh, this is my wheelhouse. Nice!
Nic
Guides Authored - Graded Card Scanning Guide PDF | History of the PSA Label PDF
I find these guys entertaining - they poke fun at the "influencers" that sink righteous bucks into high end cards.
I just wonder how many here know what the "dip" is all about? That in itself was funny and entertaining and nauseating simultaneously.
Nothing wrong with collecting 1988-1993 Junk Wax for enjoyment. I purchase some when price is right, including recently, but none in 2020-2022.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Regarding the OP's point, I see a few select cards maybe making a run at their Lockdown highs. For example the 2001 SP Authentic Tiger Woods Auto PSA 10 hit $105K at the peak and had a half dozen or so sales over $80K. The most recent ones finished at around $40-$50K. I can see a huge end of career rally for Tiger.
Interestingly I followed the pop on this card and it was 156 on April 14, 2019 (I know because I wrote a post that day referring to the pop) but now it is 135? Does anyone know why the pop was reduced by 21?
SCR is the best. I enjoy all of the hobby vids even SCI, take it FWIW.
The retail break vids on YouTube will break you from the habit of buying retail blasters. Brutal!
One positive of the junk era is that it gives collectors,not investors, a chance to collect their favorite team/player cheaply. And this enjoyment may induce them to stay in the hobby. Which we need to prosper, more involvement.
I've been pecking away at a 1988 Topps Big set for exactly this reason.
Those Big cards don't look so bad in a holder. Are those standard size holders?
I > @ndleo said:
Agreed, they have nice colors!
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Yes they are.
Typical of the 1955 and 1956 card size holder.
I just can't watch or listen to Sports Card Radio. Eventhough some of the content might be relevant, they are obnoxious.
I agree with Sports Card Radio, its like watch the home shopping network.
The bubble helped a lot of Collector's find cards that otherwise would have remained in the closet.
I imagine many who overpaid are going to hold onto their investments and agonize over it for far too long. It's just money.
Some recent big auctions:
1958 Topps #62 Jim Brown PSA 7 NM - Went for just over 6K.
https://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/bidplace?itemid=76017
1969 Topps #25 Lew Alcindor PSA 8 NM-MT - Went for just over 23K.
https://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/bidplace?itemid=76035
REA Spring Auction 1976 Topps Football #148 Walter Payton Rookie PSA GEM MINT 10 – 55K.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Prices still dropping for everything I follow, popular stuff like Gretzky and Lemieux rookies.
Looks like that Brown peaked at north of 15k, the Alcindor multiple sales at 75k, and the Payton had multiple sales over 100k.
Hard to believe there isn’t more to come, these drops are occurring during full employment. Pre-covid the Payton was a 22k card forever fwiw. Not saying its going there but that was only 40 months ago and its dropping like a stone.
I'm seeing this too. Was following a 78 Murray & Molitor/Trammell PSA 10 recently on an auction that sold for a lot less than what they were during Covid. Unopened vintage is coming down too in the auctions, but trying to grade those these days makes that a non-factor.
I don’t get the sense most folks know what is happening, save for most unique ultra low pop stuff, everything is getting hammered. Now, still up from pre-Covid, but way off, even really great stuff.
I haven’t been much of a buyer through Covid, I saw this play out in the 90s so had a good sense on how this would play out. Bunch of new entrants, exuberance, a huge bubble that pops, and lots of the new entrants leaving. The silver lining is the hobby is still much bigger and healthier then before.
I think there will be fantastic deals this time next year as we get nearer to a bottom. Impossible to time bottoms but still seems to be lots of downward pressure on prices.
Most of us simply will not live long enough to see another pandemic like run up. Many other hobbies are going through exactly the same. Plenty o'whining on the Comic book front for example.
There will always be hot items of the day or outliers but the days of nearly every slabbed card being "hot" may never return nor should they. By that I mean Cards like 1990 Fleer Shawn Kemp's (or insert name of other Junk Wax card here) never had any logical reason for selling at $300 level.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
1981 to 1985 was the precursor to the big league junk with ramped up production but nothing like what was coming down the pipe in 1986.
Thus, look at years 1986 to the mid 1990's as the true junk wax era. Topps, Donruss, Fleer, and all the rest that came with it.
That said, junk wax years are also vintage years as we move further away from that by gone time. I think it's pretty darn cool that many can buy and actually rip VINTAGE without breaking the bank or a care in the world about it.
1980 on down are what I view as "old school vintage".
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
I'll have a better price judge soon enough. I have a bunch of vintage football and basketball up on the current REA auction. And I have a number I'm hoping for. We'll see if I get it.
But I still open packs of '88 Topps with more deliberation and care than those clown dealers on the Loupe app ripping through modern like a guerilla through a banana.
1986 Donruss and Fleer not over-produced.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
Difficult to say if that comment is even partially right or wrong but enough certainly exist for them to qualify as "Junk Wax" adjacent at minimum.
I do recall as child my local comic book shop which never sold cards had a huge plastic tub of 1986 Donruss Wax. First time I saw them there must have been 500+ rack packs there.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I’m starting to see cracks forming in the specific years that I’ve been collecting. Prices have dropped 30 percent. There is a huge amount of graded stuff starting to flood onto the market. The most telling sign is that star cards are going for the same as commons. I think that in a year (or two), people will be able to pick up some real bargains…
Do u have any extra graded Topps Big ? Thinking of doing that set.
Like PSA 9.. Lmk, Thx
Thought of this thread when I noticed a guy driving around town here recently in an exceptionally nice classic car with a license plate that said 52MAYS. I am willing to bet just about everyone here can guess what he said when chatting with him about how he funded the purchase price of the car.
Jim Palmer cards are undervalued.
I collect hall of fame rookie cards, https://www.instagram.com/stwainfan/
Better than Bert Blyleven cards. I vagally remember a discussion comparing them. First ballot HOFer vs 14th time on ballot to get in. No brainer vs eh, good enough.........
Sorry. I don't. I usually sell my dupes pretty quickly after they are graded. When I grade my next batch I will keep you in mind.
Ok..Thx
I would like to highlight the word "forever" in this post. This is the case on a lot of marquee cards. They had minor 10-20% up and down moves for a long time, 10-15 years. We then saw massive spikes. Since there was a lot of ground to make up from the non-movement period, a lot of these cards should hold on to respectful gains once the fall stops. That assumes PSA is still in business and navigates the second rapid change in the business model in 3 years.
My 61 Fleer Meredith has taken a big drop in price.
I collect hall of fame rookie cards, https://www.instagram.com/stwainfan/
So a month or so ago I posted about getting hammered on some football cards I cosigned to Robert Edwards. One of the few cards that did well was a 1950 Jim Finks HoF rookie PSA 8. It sold for $280, which is the second highest that card has ever sold for.
Tonight I got a registry removal request for it. 5 minutes later I saw it posted on Ebay... for $781 - supposedly marked down from $919! (Funny aside: after asking almost 300% more, he's still charging $10 for shipping.)
So at least one person thinks prices are still majorly on the rise!
I bought the card for $781, so now you can post how you got hammered on this card too.
I remember Jack Kemp’s cards were always in demand and often an anchor in early to mid 60s sets: they’ve really come down in the last 10 years. His 1965 Tall Boy is a good example.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
The Meredith card is some what rare. That's why i'm kind of surprised by the drop.
I collect hall of fame rookie cards, https://www.instagram.com/stwainfan/
If based on numbers and metrics perhaps that is correct, but pure on field performance is only one factor in the going rate of a players cards. Mantle and Ryan are proof of that neither are Card Royalty based solely on numbers.
Jim's Jockey underwear Ad's and Monday Night Baseball stint were before my time, and to be sure the former are certainly not a selling point for the majority of the demo that collects 1970's or Vintage cards.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I have this in a PSA 9 and was hoping to upgrade.
I didn't think it would go this high!
It was timely stumbling onto this thread today. I don’t have deep enough pockets to shop in the pre-1984 era so you vintage boys will have to weigh in on those prices. However, it seems to me we are reaching capitulation level prices in the stuff I collect which is unopened baseball 1985-1995. I just started picking up a few items on my watch list over the last few weeks and I was surprised to find that some sellers were accepting offers that were 35% below their asking. Just a week ago I picked up a 1993 series 1 jumbo box (5 gold per pack) and two gold 500 card vending boxes, and the hammer price was right around mid summer 2020 levels.
Likewise, other stuff I watch such as 1993 Finest baseball, 1987 and 1990 OPC baseball, and ‘89 UD appear oversupplied and trending down pricewise. Now I think we still have a ways to go because I see a metric ton of stuff such as 1990 leaf baseball, early 90’s Fleer basketball still sitting stagnant on eBay with many sellers still clinging to hopes of a bounce back to peak Covid prices.
That being said, I feel that the next year could be an excellent opportunity in 1980s and 90’s high quality unopened and graded singles of popular/HOF players with good liquid markets. I emphasize quality here - I picked up those specific ‘93 Topps items because they are fairly rare compared to other packout styles from that year and command a premium. I feel now is a good time to pick up some of those bucket list items that are long term holds.
Even though many of those who returned to the hobby at the peak Covid prices likely got burned when the bottom fell out, that judging by the eBay sales and Facebook group activity I see, enough new people have stuck around that prices should bottom at or around their current trough - which, importantly, is still higher than 2019 levels. I’m going to dip my toes in here.
I just consigned a bunch of extras 90s refractors I had to 4 Sharp Corners. The sales were much lower than I expected. My 98 Topps Chrome Randy Johnson Refractor PSA 9 sold for $70. 2002 Topps Chrome Craig Biggio Refractor PSA 10 for $65. Not rare cards by any means but thought they would go higher. It was like this across the board for all of the modern items that I consigned.
Yep it's called JUNK Wax for a reason. Other apropos name might be "Trash wax", "Hot Garbage Wax" "Roach Wax" or "Dirt (common) Wax". It has been postulated that greater than 50% of most Junk Wax still exists unopened.
It takes incredibly HUGE demand to even temporarily counteract the sheer Galactic Mass of the Junk Wax production. Sorry man, it won't be only another year or two although outliers/exception are always possible but on the whole Junk was and will remain Junk.
IMHO Smart sellers have realized the pandemic bubble burst will have an effect on the Junk for another 1-2 full decades. They will sell what they can now and use the cash toward putting food on table or pay bills, the lucky will invest the funds garnered into Vintage Wax, Vintage Cards or other investments
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
^ P.S. be glad the stuff you like to collect is more than plentiful will get even lower in price. The old saying "buy what you like, and you will never lose" applies
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Surely folks are not putting the limited inserts and parallels (specifically the numbered) of the 90’s into the junk wax category…that would be nonsense…the issue may be the number of different sets (total volume of varieties) but still…a 90’s atomic /100 PSA Griffey/Jeter HOF’er I’ll put up against a lot of vintage HOF over the next 10 years…lots of the rare vintage has a higher pop than some of these 90’s inserts/parallel cards have in total print runs….not to mention some of these 90’s cards just look incredible and ahead of their time technically
With all due respect I think you missed the point of my post. I wasbt trying to make the argument that 1989 Upper Deck would outperform PSA 8 Mantles. And I don’t disagree with the contention that the late 1980s and early 1990s were overproduced. Obviously they were.
My argument is that:
To conclude, I believe there is such a thing as quality unopened from the junk wax baseball era. Select products of unopened 1993 Topps, unopened 1993 Finest, 1993/1994 SP, 1987 and 1990 OPC. These products are in short supply and price is set on the margin. I believe these items have reached their bottom price. as I mentioned previously I do believe other segments of the market, like 1989 UD and early 1990s Fleer basketball, have a little ways to go down due to both the heights of the original euphoria and the massive supply.
In realm of plausibility, but dumpster divin' jus' ain't my thang
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I bought a large “junk era” lot locally that had about 175 boxes and sets.
I sold though most of it and made a nice gain. It doesn’t matter what I think the value is in the future, if you can make money on it, someone will buy it.
I think the hobby is in a good place right now. Prices aren’t crazy and there is good selection at all price points. Even though I avoid most Panini products, I could have bought all new FB releases at decent prices, which hasn't been the case the past 2 years.
All good. I need more people to think like you so I can scoop up deals.