Price Rebounds
mexpo75
Posts: 1,931 ✭✭✭✭
We have all seen the big price run ups and the subsequent declines in the past two years or so. When do you guys think there will be a price run up again?
PackManInNC
0
Comments
I predict it could be before or after the recession. Not sure about the date. But it will be an odd date and Ill guess around 1am somewhere.
Honestly I dont think we will see anything like we did for a long time. Slow and steady for a while with maybe a bump. And I guess we are talking about average items. High end yeah people are going to create new Million dollar items I would think.
Plan on passing it down. We need a new generation of collectors. Pokemon will spike.
Not sure about newer stuff. Wondering about vintage.
Some stuff was so overbought that it could be decades, or in the case of modern - never - before we reach those prices. An 86 Jordan 10 would have to 6x to hit those peak Goldin sales.
The stuff I follow, 70s/80s OPC hockey is still falling. And keep in mind 50% down, requires 100% up to get back to par. Long climb to reach the Covid peaks for most of the hobby.
Vintage baseball (pre-1970 material, to specify what my definition is) really hasn’t seen a huge pullback and that’s what I mostly follow. I would say it’s more price holding rather than any appreciable price decline and some appreciable gains here and there on blue chip. Lately, it seems there’s a steady demand for already graded material - especially the higher grade - because of a variety of factors including the lead times, higher fees and the strict standards at TPGs in general making it more difficult financially to submit cards as a means of improvement.
Realistically the world is more expensive than it was even last year. Some prices of even basic staple materials that have tripled are off the highs but but still double where they were two years ago. Honestly, the higher fees are something I won’t pretend I don’t understand and objectively speaking the improvement in lead times across service levels since that infamous shutdown has been both steady and remarkable.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
Prices have gone up and prices have gone down. I feel things have leveled out and won't drop much lower. Prices are still higher on a lot of items before covid. If you are planning on buying anything, I feel now is the time, imo.
next year before price rises. the economy sucks. nice vintage is moving up a little.
I don't know how many covid collectors are long term holders or if the market will get flooded with purchases if times get tough.
I also think baby boomers and their offspring are what keep the vintage cards valuable. I anticipate a drop in vintage collectors in couple decades. If the values were to keep rising then will the next generation have enough interested people, with enough money, to have multiple big name auction sites setting records?
I do not believe that today's prices are tomorrow's bargains. Prices/value on a lot are still up from pre-covid. A lot of stupid money being slung around then. High end, blue chip will always find a new home and it only takes two big fish wanting the same thing at the same time to drive a price up dramatically. This one bothered me.... a 1958 Frank Robinson PSA 10 (pop 1) sold for 230K+ approximately a year ago in Memory Lane auction and then sold for 70K, 84K with buyer's premium this last month in a Goldin auction. I'm nowhere in that league---- but wow. I do believe that there is still a lot of nice raw cards out there in the wild and mid-grade, blue chip, centered, eye appeal copies will hold value for the collector vs the investor.
I think it could be quite awhile. Much was spent by non collector/investor types when we were all in lock down. I believe many of those have left the "hobby" now that restrictions are lifted. Though many on Ebay are still hoping to realize Covid prices.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
There will not be another meteoric hobby rise short of the next pandemic. It was the perfect storm of idle time, disposable income, and rekindling of family and nostalgia. I think prices still have a little way to drop and we’ll get closer to a 125 index versus pre-Covid. That likely happens about a year from now as the economy deals with inflationary pricing. I think from there it will be a slow and steady hobby just like it was the previous decade. Focusing on the most elite and iconic rookies in high grade (or dead centered mid-grade) has always been the safest hobby bet if you are looking for steady pricing growth. By iconic, I am talking Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig, Ted Williams, Musial, Mays, Mantle, Aaron, Jim Brown, Walter Payton, Montana, LT, Rice, Emmitt, Brady, Jordan, Bird, Magic, Gretzky, Orr, Lemieux.
I also like to mention this: baseball cards are not typical goods, from an economist’s perspective, so typical economic laws don’t apply neatly to them.
There are lots more variables at work than just supply and demand or the overall health of the economy at play when analyzing sales data.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
I think prices still have a ways to drop. Especially, in the modern/ultra modern, because that's where a lot of speculating was happening during the shutdown. I do think vintage will always hold value better just due to scarcity, but it should settle a bit lower too.
I don't think we'll see a big spike upwards for a long time, but a slow and steady rise. I'm buy-and-hold anyway so that's fine with me. I have another 10-15 years until I really start selling.
Absolutely, perfectly written. I completely agree. A little ways to still drop and no way to have the storm that we had 2 years ago. Unbelievable.
I'm amazed at how much a lot of 80's cards are still selling for, but I think that stuff will come down whenever grading is no longer cost prohibitive.
I'm a believer that vintage (Pre 1980) Hall of Famers in high grade (8 or better) are still undervalued. If you look at the pops on most 50's and 60's cards in 8 or better there really isn't a huge supply. When we see a pop of over 100 we act like it's not a rarity when in reality something that only has a supply of 100 is pretty low. All you need is that 101st collector to start to push up prices.
I think when we are talking more modern, like the 80's and 90's it will be the rarer cards that increase in value. I like the Topps Tiffany cards, the 1993 Finest Refractors, 1980's OPC baseball. I also think the rookie cards of the most desirable players (Jeter, Cabrera, Pujols, Trout as examples) will increase in value.
Now any of the massively over abundant cards (1989 UD Griffey for example) are destined to be worthless except when there is a price bubble like 2020-2021.
Just my opinion. I could be wrong.
Great question Mike.
I've been collecting for over 30 yrs. Don't want my thoughts to sound like I'm virtue signaling.
This question IMO begs for context.
Is someone's collection directly or indirectly part of a "portfolio?"
In short? To your question. I have no idea.
I'm afraid that the COVID era collectors may have been very disappointed in the overall dynamics of buying/selling.
I asked one of the channel guys - what happened to Brad - the Comeback Card Investor? Out. He told me he was never in it for collecting; just for the $. This type of influence on our hobby may be very bad for the regular "collector" since all that "speculating/investing" for profit drives us out (one of my favorites that I used to pick up for 40-80 is now in the 100+++).
I've seen everything from WIWAG to "do you dip?" And, newcomers here have no idea what we've endured over the years from out and out crooks right here on our forum. Since I don't have a 9 figure bank account and don't have 5 acres on a freakin' golf course? I like staying in the shallow end of the pool.
Amen to that Mike. I was never in it for the money. Just bought things I liked. Just glad I did buy years ago. No way I would buy same things now.
After sitting out most of the past two years on the single buying side, I started to nibble here and there on rookie cards that I always wanted.
I don't think the modern market is done falling. Modern boxes are still too high for the value they deliver. I don't see the demand like there was two years ago.
OPC Gretzky rookies in mid to higher grades are way down from their all time highs, As well as the 86 fleer Jordans with room to go down even more from here as it will be a nice buying opportunity. I would definetely stay away from ultra-modern, but was thinking about picking up a McDavid Upper deck Young guns rookie, but its still way too expensive to pick up right now even though they are very plentiful.
Modern is going to crash hard. All these new collectors who think they struck it rich with a 1/10 card, not realizing there are 10 blue, 10 red, 10 gold, 10 green, 10 purple, etc. I see them all over Reddit desperately trying to sell stuff already. In a few years, no one will care they have a 1/10 of some no-name player who has already flamed out of the league.
I'm a vintage football guy. I've seen "regular" cards drop maybe 30% overall. Still coming down a little. But vintage high grade rookies are still going up. I can hardly find any HoF rookie cards in a PSA 10 for under $1000 no matter who it is.
A very good benefit of the card value spike was that it likely caused many people to get vintage out of closets and into the market for true collectors.
I definitely paid stupid prices for unique serial cards of Bo Jackson (1/1, 1/4, 4/4, 5/5, 15/15) durinf the pandemic. I'll admit the error of my ways. My future grand kids can shake their heads at the cards and hopefully learn from it or enjoy them. My situation was different because my basement flooded in a 100+ year old home my wife and I moved into and 99% of my collection was destroyed. My insurance said I had to get $5k worth of cards and couldn't get money. BJ and MJ were my picks. Then I got addicted and won't mention how much I spent. Luckily still married and I stopped long before going broke but it caused me a lot of stress until I organized them all a month ago when joining PSA and doing my first submission. I wish I would have been a member here before that happened and I would have made out much better.
Many of us said the same thing 10 years ago. At some point we have to realize modern is not going to crash hard. I don't have metrics to support it but imho it's the fastest growing market. While I still love vintage I now collect roughly 50/50 between the two.
I also think that all of the high end refractors, etc. and the high prices they are selling for have helped push the prices of vintage way up. If a Lebron triple logoman card is worth 2.4 million the MJ, Magic, and other iconic players had to increase.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
The problem with modern is the over abundance of serial numbered and colored cards. Base cards are worthless, and higher serial number cards or worse colored parallels may as well be.
I don't think Modern will crash, but just correct a bit. There were a ton of speculators, but I still believe there are a ton of new collectors created the last 10 years who will stick around as long as the companies don't repeat the Junk Era.
I'm optimistic they learned their lesson then and won't repeat. I'm also hopeful those same collectors will eventually reach back into the vintage era over time.
They already are. So many brands. So many subsets. Limited editions of players who stopped playing years ago. Jersey patch cards. Autograph cards. Multi-autograph cards. "Downtown" versions. Mosaic versions (in a rainbow of colors!). Art cards. A million draft pick versions. It goes on and on.
I know Reddit isn't a full picture of the hobby, but on there, I see so many people who ran out and bought a few blasters only to immediately turn around and try and sell whatever "limited edition" stuff they ripped. I see no one excited about whatever "limited edition" card they pulled in 2021 because they've already moved on to the next big thing.
I’ve said many times - high grade 90’s inserts and numbered will remain solid and have been ticking up…..Also with inflation the floor for hall of famers will move from a buck or two to 5 or 10 over the next few….so will shipping and supplies expenses but still there is an inflation play for 90’s regular and insert/parallel for HOF’s
Having vets and retired players autos and parallels as hits bothers me in modern products. Would I like a Steve Carlton auto? Sure. Do I want it on a purple refractor chrome serialized card from 2023? Not really. Those hunting for big hits in new products must be crushed when they pull a Fergie Jenkins auto.
Only those very young may have a chance to see a 2020-21 run up again in their lifetimes? Make note that most of the so-called "new" money to enter the hobby is gone might be a full generation to replenish those willing to spend on overproducing stuff. Expect Junk wax era slabs to sink below 2019 levels.
The days of anything and everything in PSA slab jumping daily are over, welcome to the junk slab era.
BTW I see same type topics on CGC's forums. Comics and most other hobbies are going through the same.
P.S. @blurryface where is your instagram buddy now? Oh Where oh where can he be? You know the braggart who in 2021 was displaying his 200 PSA 10 1990 Leaf Frank Thomas' like they were something special. That 120K in value has dwindled down to 30K and is still sinking like a lead anchor
That card and 1990 Fleer Jordon PSA10 to me are the poster children of "a fool and their money". Stack the PSA10's for either of those cards one on top of the other and they would reach Mars.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I fully agree. I collect mostly late 90's baseball, especially refractors, and while they didn't boom in 2021, they have consistently increased in value. 1998 & 1999 Topps Chrome are such great sets to collect. So many great HOF'ers & non-HOF stars, and the refractors are SUPER tough, especially in 9 or 10 grade. It's crazy by today's standards, but a 500 card set with only a single parallel - inserted at 1:12 packs - makes it tough to come across any particular card.
When I referred to modern declining a little bit more, I meant the ultra modern market - 2017+. I completely agree that the mid-1990's to early 2000 boxes are very interesting value plays compared to modern. At least most of the key non-auto hits are actually in the boxes and not redemptions. Basketball is crazy from that period, but football and hockey are still reasonably priced. I don't follow baseball closely but I know some boxes are $1000+.
Agree, back in the day many of us remember thinking we had something when the card was numbered 1/10000 or 1/5000 etc 🤣🤣
I don't mind all of the limited parallels. As a singles collector, I enjoy having more options of my favorite players. The serial numbering is a plus for me, for the price of modern product I wish more cards were numbered. At this point in my hobby career I don't need (or have the space!) to collect the quantity I used to buy.
Personally I am buying more factory slabbed serial numbered autos rather than ultra modern graded cards. I think they display well and provide an additional level of security.
patiently waiting for 1990 Fleer Basketball boxes to get back up to $400
2019-2022 Prizm BKB could be in for a big drop as rookies fail to deliver and PSA back log is ended. No Jordan cards in any of that product.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
a lot of vintage had minimal changes in value for 10-15 years so alot of the uptick is holding and probably valid. many collectors of this era were pulled back in during covid and brought their kids into it. Vintage were there was a collecting aspect associated with will probably have a nice steady climb. a lot of supply on the higher quality stuff from the 50s and 60s has now been put into collections, the 70s as well but supply is more abundant.
the challenge is going to be to convince collectors that grading fees are reasonable if the intent is to collect, not to sell.
I've kept every vintage card I've purchased since 2010 > @billwaltonsbeard said:
Ha! I bought sealed rack case a few weeks ago since they had fallen so much from the peak. Can't lose with Jordans in the product! Can you?
1990 Fleer Kemp RC PSA 10 is now at $30. They peaked at $400.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
That is why I stepped away from the PSA singles market for two years. Bought 2 cards total and took in the Shawshank on both. The only thing that should have a $400 price tag and Kemp's name is a takeout order.
To those that scoffed when it was mentioned those JUNK Wax cards would never sustain and and the rebuff was somehow cards like that were solid "investments", I say HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
It may take another year but the 1990 Fleer Jordon in PSA10 will negatively breach $150 and in 2 year especially as supply keeps growing $125 will be likely. Massive supply requires constant massive demand.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Good plan to diversify on a split of modern/vintage. Just like diversification in the stock market. An example of modern not crashing is 2017 Bowman baseball mega boxes. List price $14.99 now selling $250-$300 a box. Boxes only contain 7 packs. With vintage, if the market softens, I would think collectors would NOT want to sell in a down market only to lose money if they bought at the peak. Unless they are desperate for funds, why not hang onto the stock. With that scenario in mind there should be less vintage out there for sale if in fact vintage is in a "hold" scenario. Same most likely applies to modern. With the market trending downward I would not sell, but pick some spots to buy distressed items.
This is what I'm seeing (I'm a football collector). There's stuff for sale, but not much premium vintage - I'm assuming because they're holding now that prices have softened.
That’s what I’m seeing too. I’m a vintage football guy too but all that seems to be coming up for sale is low grade stuff. I can’t even remember the last time I found something I needed in a high enough grade.
I've noticed even some of the top vintage cards have a little pull back. It hasn't been as bad as the ultra modern but
still prices seem to have dipped a little.
Chantilly vintage was priced near top of the market and appeared to be selling. 70s and 80s have softened a bit.
I saw maybe 10 Star BKB cards at the entire show. I assume dealers are going to hold until they see PSA grading impacts .
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
I've noticed the 70s softening too.
As long as that does not hinder cash flow fine. SteadyCash flow> @Nathaniel1960 said:
A week later and they are now below $30 in PSA10. Based on some of the slabs serial numbers there were those that paid $50 just to have one graded in 2021 and 2022.
To all who scoffed in 2020-early 2022 and insisted Junk Wax cards were "good" "sound" or "solid" "investments"
1) I TOLD YOU SO!
2)
In another 1-2 years the sole outlier to Junk Wax being totally wasted money may be the 89 UD Griffey in PSA10? Do note though even that card has and will take further hits on ROI. Still my guess it is will not revert to pre-bubble price.
Please note all my posts in this Topic refer only to Junk Wax cards.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Inserts will weather the storm…damaged but not dead…
Nm> @82FootballWaxMemorys said:
What time frame is ‘Junk Wax’ ?
I’m mostly a vintage collector and the term gets thrown around pretty often but aI was just curious if there’s an accepted and specific time frame associated with it?
Sorry for the dumb question.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
I would say junk wax began w/Topps not being the sole producer of sports cards (Donruss, Fleer, Score and Upper Deck)...so 1981 and later.
My Posts here refer to cards from the 1988-1993 height of Junk WAX Era. There are some main stream issues in that time frame that may not totally qualify as Junk as of course there are always outliers.
In my opinion 1983-1987 are Junk Wax "Light" or "adjacent" with oldest years being the "lightest"
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)