State of the rare coin market

Indianlincoln

Ended up randomly going to a show in Albany, New York. Hosted at the Polish community center

There was a great turn out

Saw a nice 1931s Lincoln PCGS ms65 bn. Seller wanted $100 over price guide.

Saw a 1932-s quarter pcgs ms63 with cac, dealer wanted $120 over cac price guide

Another dealer had a 1932-D quarter anacs f-12 and wanted $60 over Pcgs price guide

1914-D Lincoln’s seemed to be popular and saw many people buying them even in low grades

Many low quality coins seemed to be selling for a premium

Is this the new normal?

jmlanzaf

I would hesitate to make any declaration based on 3 coins. Price guide is just that, a guide. a PQ example would always sell for over guide and a meh example will always sell for under guide.

[It is also worth pointing out that not all guides are worth the price of the paper (or photons), even if they are free. And not all prices within a guide have equal validity - although the common coins you mention should be fairly well represented by the more reliable price guides.]

I would also add that people don't like to lose money and coin shows have a lot of amateurs. If they paid guide for the quarter, they are going to want over guide. Since they aren't relying on coin income for a living, they can wait. I've seen dealers at show with the same inventory year-after-year. They are hobbyists amusing themselves at the coin show and don't really care if they sell anything.

ricko

Went to that show once, years ago.... Was .. IMO... the showcase example of overpriced coins. I was used to the shows in WA state, Seattle area..... Reasonable prices... some low, some high, but mainly reasonable. The Albany show was way high prices...Looks like it still is... People must be buying though, the show continues and tables are not free. Cheers, RickO

PeakRarities

@jmlanzaf said:
I would hesitate to make any declaration based on 3 coins. Price guide is just that, a guide. a PQ example would always sell for over guide and a meh example will always sell for under guide.

[It is also worth pointing out that not all guides are worth the price of the paper (or photons), even if they are free. And not all prices within a guide have equal validity - although the common coins you mention should be fairly well represented by the more reliable price guides.]

I would also add that people don't like to lose money and coin shows have a lot of amateurs. If they paid guide for the quarter, they are going to want over guide. Since they aren't relying on coin income for a living, they can wait. I've seen dealers at show with the same inventory year-after-year. They are hobbyists amusing themselves at the coin show and don't really care if they sell anything.

@jmlanzaf nailed it. I frequent the local monthly show near me, and the few coins I see that I would consider are normally priced to the moon, and I go home empty handed. As stated, a lot of these guys are hobbyists and would rather hold tight and make fewer high margin sales, than sell at guide and have to replace more inventory which may be difficult in this market.

MFeld

@Indianlincoln said:
Ended up randomly going to a show in Albany, New York. Hosted at the Polish community center

There was a great turn out

Saw a nice 1931s Lincoln PCGS ms65 bn. Seller wanted $100 over price guide.

Saw a 1932-s quarter pcgs ms63 with cac, dealer wanted $120 over cac price guide

Another dealer had a 1932-D quarter anacs f-12 and wanted $60 over Pcgs price guide

1914-D Lincoln’s seemed to be popular and saw many people buying them even in low grades

Many low quality coins seemed to be selling for a premium

Is this the new normal?

Were the coins selling for or just being quoted at those premiums? There's a big difference between the two.

Indianlincoln

@MFeld said:

@Indianlincoln said:
Ended up randomly going to a show in Albany, New York. Hosted at the Polish community center

There was a great turn out

Saw a nice 1931s Lincoln PCGS ms65 bn. Seller wanted $100 over price guide.

Saw a 1932-s quarter pcgs ms63 with cac, dealer wanted $120 over cac price guide

Another dealer had a 1932-D quarter anacs f-12 and wanted $60 over Pcgs price guide

1914-D Lincoln’s seemed to be popular and saw many people buying them even in low grades

Many low quality coins seemed to be selling for a premium

Is this the new normal?

Were the coins selling for or just being quoted at those premiums? There's a big difference between the two.

Oh yes coin we’re selling, fast too

A few coins I didn’t mention, by the time I took note and went back a second time were gone

Key date Lincolns were hot yesterday

RLSnapper

I am considering buying a really nice PCGS G6 Matron Cent off Ebay. The guy has it priced at 2x price guide...I offered to meet him in the middle. He said he didn't have any room to move from his price. I will probably wind up buying it at 2X guide after seeing how well the Matron cents did in the recent HA auction. It's PQ , smooth, dark chocolate...find another nicer..I don't think so. Gotta pay to play.

Tramp

The market is strong currently. If you see a coin that has met all time criteria you are looking for and there aren't much to choose from, you best jump on it or it could be awhile before you see another that meets your desires and when you do, it will be even higher priced.

I made that mistake in 2020 when I could have picked up a Lincoln 1922 plain MS63 BN for under $10K. Three years later I'm still searching on a reasonable but limited budget. I'm still kicking myself over that one. But I did learn my lesson; don't second guess yourself and don't pass up a good thing within reason, given that you've gone over all the data and market research. You must do your due diligence.

SilverBlind

@Tramp said:
The market is strong currently. If you see a coin that has met all time criteria you are looking for and there aren't much to choose from, you best jump on it or it could be awhile before you see another that meets your desires and when you do, it will be even higher priced.

I made that mistake in 2020 when I could have picked up a Lincoln 1922 plain MS63 BN for under $10K. Three years later I'm still searching on a reasonable but limited budget. I'm still kicking myself over that one. But I did learn my lesson; don't second guess yourself and don't pass up a good thing within reason, given that you've gone over all the data and market research. You must do your due diligence.

A good deal usually only lasts 5 minutes.

pcgscacgold

Give Gerry Fortin's Blog a read (from today). People want quality first. CAC coins are selling fast and at premiums. Non-CAC not moving as well. He said demand for CAC coins "dwarfed" non-CAC in a recent release of seated coinage.

johnny010

@pcgscacgold said:
Give Gerry Fortin's Blog a read (from today). People want quality first. CAC coins are selling fast and at premiums. Non-CAC not moving as well. He said demand for CAC coins "dwarfed" non-CAC in a recent release of seated coinage.

I still don’t get the logic.

pcgscacgold

@johnny010 said:

@pcgscacgold said:
Give Gerry Fortin's Blog a read (from today). People want quality first. CAC coins are selling fast and at premiums. Non-CAC not moving as well. He said demand for CAC coins "dwarfed" non-CAC in a recent release of seated coinage.

I still don’t get the logic.

For a while I collect signed 1st edition books. People only wanted unread, like new books. They didn't want ones that looked used. I see that in coins. People want the top quality coins and are willing to pay up. Bottom end coins sit and are hard to sell. I have never had a problem selling a CAC gold coin, but non-CAC gold has gone unwanted by some dealers.

MFeld

@johnny010 said:

@pcgscacgold said:
Give Gerry Fortin's Blog a read (from today). People want quality first. CAC coins are selling fast and at premiums. Non-CAC not moving as well. He said demand for CAC coins "dwarfed" non-CAC in a recent release of seated coinage.

I still don’t get the logic.

You don't "get the logic" that coins which tend to be of better quality are in greater demand and easier to sell?

jerseyben

@pcgscacgold said:

@johnny010 said:

@pcgscacgold said:
Give Gerry Fortin's Blog a read (from today). People want quality first. CAC coins are selling fast and at premiums. Non-CAC not moving as well. He said demand for CAC coins "dwarfed" non-CAC in a recent release of seated coinage.

I still don’t get the logic.

For a while I collect signed 1st edition books. People only wanted unread, like new books. They didn't want ones that looked used. I see that in coins. People want the top quality coins and are willing to pay up. Bottom end coins sit and are hard to sell. I have never had a problem selling a CAC gold coin, but non-CAC gold has gone unwanted by some dealers.

Same thing in most markets. I sell vinyl records. The rarest records in the best condition are consistently the easiest ones to sell. Often times these are the most expensive records too.

johnny010

@MFeld said:

@johnny010 said:

@pcgscacgold said:
Give Gerry Fortin's Blog a read (from today). People want quality first. CAC coins are selling fast and at premiums. Non-CAC not moving as well. He said demand for CAC coins "dwarfed" non-CAC in a recent release of seated coinage.

I still don’t get the logic.

You don't "get the logic" that coins which tend to be of better quality are in greater demand and easier to sell?

I don’t get the logic of using a 3rd party to review a 3rd party. I buy the coins I like that have eye appeal to me. Better quality will always be subjective.

Tramp

@pcgscacgold said:
Give Gerry Fortin's Blog a read (from today). People want quality first. CAC coins are selling fast and at premiums. Non-CAC not moving as well. He said demand for CAC coins "dwarfed" non-CAC in a recent release of seated coinage.

I paid a slight premium for my Morgan 1889-CC MS-62 with the CAC. I felt it was a bonus, but if you are going to invest that kind of money then you want quality for sure. Fortunately, I got there first as there were other interested parties.

MFeld

@johnny010 said:

@MFeld said:

@johnny010 said:

@pcgscacgold said:
Give Gerry Fortin's Blog a read (from today). People want quality first. CAC coins are selling fast and at premiums. Non-CAC not moving as well. He said demand for CAC coins "dwarfed" non-CAC in a recent release of seated coinage.

I still don’t get the logic.

You don't "get the logic" that coins which tend to be of better quality are in greater demand and easier to sell?

I don’t get the logic of using a 3rd party to review a 3rd party. I buy the coins I like that have eye appeal to me. Better quality will always be subjective.

If "better quality will always be subjective", that at least partially diminishes the value in buying 3'd party/professionally graded coins in the first place. After all, it would "always be subjective" as to whether one coin, which is graded higher than another, is actually of better quality.

jkrk

@johnny010 said:

@MFeld said:

@johnny010 said:

@pcgscacgold said:
Give Gerry Fortin's Blog a read (from today). People want quality first. CAC coins are selling fast and at premiums. Non-CAC not moving as well. He said demand for CAC coins "dwarfed" non-CAC in a recent release of seated coinage.

I still don’t get the logic.

You don't "get the logic" that coins which tend to be of better quality are in greater demand and easier to sell?

I don’t get the logic of using a 3rd party to review a 3rd party. I buy the coins I like that have eye appeal to me. Better quality will always be subjective.

The first TPG tells you the general range of the coin in their pro opinion.

The 2nd TPG tells you, in their opinion, whether you have a higher end coin grades for that range?

If you are happy with the first opinion you have no need to go further but there are others who want and will pay for the 2nd opinion.

johnny010

@MFeld said:

@johnny010 said:

@MFeld said:

@johnny010 said:

@pcgscacgold said:
Give Gerry Fortin's Blog a read (from today). People want quality first. CAC coins are selling fast and at premiums. Non-CAC not moving as well. He said demand for CAC coins "dwarfed" non-CAC in a recent release of seated coinage.

I still don’t get the logic.

You don't "get the logic" that coins which tend to be of better quality are in greater demand and easier to sell?

I don’t get the logic of using a 3rd party to review a 3rd party. I buy the coins I like that have eye appeal to me. Better quality will always be subjective.

If "better quality will always be subjective", that at least partially diminishes the value in buying 3'd party/professionally graded coins in the first place. After all, it would "always be subjective" as to whether one coin, which is graded higher than another, is actually of better quality.

It’s the idea of having it reviewed a second time. I digress this topic has been beaten to death here many times.

BryceM

Prior to 2007, it was, of course, impossible to identify really nice coins. As a result, virtually every coin sold at guidebook prices.

MasonG

@BryceM said:
Prior to 2007, it was, of course, impossible to identify really nice coins. As a result, virtually every coin sold at guidebook prices.

It was definitely harder at that time to identify really nice coins for lots of people (still is today without some help, BTW), which tended to hold prices for really nice coins down. And many of the people who could identify those really nice coins and buy them at then-current price levels were quite unhappy to have the really nice coins pointed out to a larger audience since this had the effect of driving up demand (and, of course, prices) for those coins.

DisneyFan

@MFeld said:

You don't "get the logic" that coins which tend to be of better quality are in greater demand and easier to sell?

I don't disagree with you. What concerns me is that the market for an early date (say prior to 1940) MS64 CAC coin is weaker than the demand for the same coin in MS66 CAC and even more so if it's a MS66+ CAC.

Is coin collecting becoming more of a rich person's hobby that depends on truly qualified experts to distinguish the grades?

Cougar1978

It is a sellers market. Buy at price guide - are you kidding? PQ coins will cost more. If you want nice coins expect to pay the money. Look at the huge premiums many CAC coins bring. Many nice coins picked off bourse by dealers (or wholesaler before public is admitted) then marked up cost plus. Their target market: well off buyers with money. This material is in very strong hands. One guy setup next to me said “Why should I sell this material (PQ slabs) less than the margin I get on my raw collector coin stuff (laughing)?”

A friend bought a really PQ CAC 66 1936-D San Diego 50c for $240 from another dealer off the bourse. An A+ coin with blazing super luster with lots of blast! The CAC retail CPG is $293. He has it priced at $350. It’s one of the best ones I have seen. A keeper coin. He said he will get all the money or keep it to enhance his case display. On this coin he’s in the drivers seat. For his target market - a well off buyer it’s chump change no more than a gourmet burger to the average guy.

PeakRarities

@MasonG said:

@BryceM said:
Prior to 2007, it was, of course, impossible to identify really nice coins. As a result, virtually every coin sold at guidebook prices.

It was definitely harder at that time to identify really nice coins for lots of people (still is today without some help, BTW), which tended to hold prices for really nice coins down. And many of the people who could identify those really nice coins and buy them at then-current price levels were quite unhappy to have the really nice coins pointed out to a larger audience since this had the effect of driving up demand (and, of course, prices) for those coins.

One of the most significant factors that contributed to the growth of CAC was the growth of the online retail marketplace. Regardless if one has the skills to identify really nice coins in hand, it's very hard to do so just looking at pictures online no matter how good you are. Many of us are willing to pay a little extra for the certified opinion of an a trusted arbiter that would also buy the coin sight unseen. I can understand how this ruffled the feathers of the collectors and dealers that had been doing this for decades without the need for stickers, but again buying based on pictures is and always will be a challenge, and very few of us are buying our expensive coins from a local B&M where we can see it in hand first.

PeakRarities

@DisneyFan said:

@MFeld said:

You don't "get the logic" that coins which tend to be of better quality are in greater demand and easier to sell?

I don't disagree with you. What concerns me is that the market for an early date (say prior to 1940) MS64 CAC coin is weaker than the demand for the same coin in MS66 CAC and even more so if it's a MS66+ CAC.

Can you give me an example of that scenario, are we talking about a common date Saint? For a coin like that, it's just that theres thousands and thousands of nice MS64 examples that some don't even bother to submit to CAC. In 66+CAC there may be a hundred or less examples to choose from. The supply is what's lopsided, not the demand.

@DisneyFan said:
Is coin collecting becoming more of a rich person's hobby that depends on truly qualified experts to distinguish the grades?

The upper end of the market has always been for the well off/affluent. Anyone who spends money to collect anything is using disposable income for the most part, and inflation has taken a toll on the amount of disposable income that many have now . The ebbs and flows of grading standards over time have not helped to instill a great deal of confidence in the collector base, and the extra arbitration cost is well worth it to many of us when we're already spending a significant amount of money. Whats an extra thousand when you were already spending five? Especially when the liquidity of the stickered coin far exceeds one that is not.

MJD

This thread is making me feel better at slightly overpaying for a 1935 Boone commemorative with a CAC green bean. It’s a nice coin I probably would have bought regardless, but the CAC sticker gave me added confidence.

MasonG

@DeplorableDan said:
I can understand how this ruffled the feathers of the collectors and dealers that had been doing this for decades without the need for stickers...

This is the point I was focusing on. There were (or still are?... anyway, I'm not going looking for them) posts here back then by people saying they didn't like CAC because the better coins were being identified and it was getting harder to buy them for the price of ordinary examples.

jmlanzaf

@MJD said:
This thread is making me feel better at slightly overpaying for a 1935 Boone commemorative with a CAC green bean. It’s a nice coin I probably would have bought regardless, but the CAC sticker gave me added confidence.

That is really the simplest reason that a second opinion matters. With so much of the rare coin market transacted sight-unseen at auction, having a second opinion has value...no matter what some might say.

MFeld

@MasonG said:

@DeplorableDan said:
I can understand how this ruffled the feathers of the collectors and dealers that had been doing this for decades without the need for stickers...

This is the point I was focusing on. There were (or still are?... anyway, I'm not going looking for them) posts here back then by people saying they didn't like CAC because the better coins were being identified and it was getting harder to buy them for the price of ordinary examples.

Similarly, a lot of sharp buyers didn’t like the advent of the major grading companies, because in many cases, it became much more difficult to rip coins.

ThreeCentSilverFL

Nice coins are still going for good money.

jkrk

@MFeld said:

@MasonG said:

@DeplorableDan said:
I can understand how this ruffled the feathers of the collectors and dealers that had been doing this for decades without the need for stickers...

This is the point I was focusing on. There were (or still are?... anyway, I'm not going looking for them) posts here back then by people saying they didn't like CAC because the better coins were being identified and it was getting harder to buy them for the price of ordinary examples.

Similarly, a lot of sharp buyers didn’t like the advent of the major grading companies, because in many cases, it became much more difficult to rip coins.

I fully agree with your premise that TPG's help to somewhat level the playing field... With that said ... as a novice I would like the word "rip" defined? Serious question.

If I buy a raw coin for $500 (totally clueless in my knowledge) , and have it graded by TPG and resell the coin for $1000 is it a rip? If I buy a stock at $10, which suspends trading 10 minutes later and reopens at $20 is that a rip ( No knowledge just sheer luck)?

Thus is knowledge disparity the key to a rip?

MrEureka

.> @Indianlincoln said:

Ended up randomly going to a show in Albany, New York. Hosted at the Polish community center

There was a great turn out

Saw a nice 1931s Lincoln PCGS ms65 bn. Seller wanted $100 over price guide.

Saw a 1932-s quarter pcgs ms63 with cac, dealer wanted $120 over cac price guide

Another dealer had a 1932-D quarter anacs f-12 and wanted $60 over Pcgs price guide

1914-D Lincoln’s seemed to be popular and saw many people buying them even in low grades

Many low quality coins seemed to be selling for a premium

Is this the new normal?

Is this something new for those coins at that venue?

Also, just out of curiosity, how many people did you actually see buying low grade 14-D's at the show?

MFeld

@jkrk said:

@MFeld said:

@MasonG said:

@DeplorableDan said:
I can understand how this ruffled the feathers of the collectors and dealers that had been doing this for decades without the need for stickers...

This is the point I was focusing on. There were (or still are?... anyway, I'm not going looking for them) posts here back then by people saying they didn't like CAC because the better coins were being identified and it was getting harder to buy them for the price of ordinary examples.

Similarly, a lot of sharp buyers didn’t like the advent of the major grading companies, because in many cases, it became much more difficult to rip coins.

I fully agree with your premise that TPG's help to somewhat level the playing field... With that said ... as a novice I would like the word "rip" defined? Serious question.

If I buy a raw coin for $500 (totally clueless in my knowledge) , and have it graded by TPG and resell the coin for $1000 is it a rip? If I buy a stock at $10, which suspends trading 10 minutes later and reopens at $20 is that a rip ( No knowledge just sheer luck)?

Admittedly, “rip” is a somewhat ambiguous term. At this moment, off the top of my head and subject to change - I’d define it as “a price at which a knowledgeable seller should easily be able to obtain an appreciably higher price”. Please don’t ask what “an appreciably higher price” is.😬

In answer to your two hypotheticals:
1) Buying at $500 and selling at $1000 could certainly be a “rip”, but there could be some reasons why it might not have been. For example, perhaps you paid a fair market price, but got lucky with a liberal grade and/or with the $1000 selling price.

2) I don’t necessarily think the stock purchase was a “rip” because you paid fair market value at the time and just got lucky with your timing.

jkrk

@MFeld said:

@jkrk said:

@MFeld said:

@MasonG said:

@DeplorableDan said:
I can understand how this ruffled the feathers of the collectors and dealers that had been doing this for decades without the need for stickers...

This is the point I was focusing on. There were (or still are?... anyway, I'm not going looking for them) posts here back then by people saying they didn't like CAC because the better coins were being identified and it was getting harder to buy them for the price of ordinary examples.

Similarly, a lot of sharp buyers didn’t like the advent of the major grading companies, because in many cases, it became much more difficult to rip coins.

I fully agree with your premise that TPG's help to somewhat level the playing field... With that said ... as a novice I would like the word "rip" defined? Serious question.

If I buy a raw coin for $500 (totally clueless in my knowledge) , and have it graded by TPG and resell the coin for $1000 is it a rip? If I buy a stock at $10, which suspends trading 10 minutes later and reopens at $20 is that a rip ( No knowledge just sheer luck)?

Admittedly, “rip” is a somewhat ambiguous term. At this moment, off the top of my head and subject to change - I’d define it as “a price at which a knowledgeable seller should easily be able to obtain an appreciably higher price”. Please don’t ask what “an appreciably higher price” is.😬

In answer to your two hypotheticals:
1) Buying at $500 and selling at $1000 could certainly be a “rip”, but there could be some reasons why it might not have been. For example, perhaps you paid a fair market price, but got lucky with a liberal grade and/or with the $1000 selling price.

2) I don’t necessarily think the stock purchase was a “rip” because you paid fair market value at the time and just got lucky with your timing.

TY for your responses.

MasonG

@MFeld said:
Admittedly, “rip” is a somewhat ambiguous term. At this moment, off the top of my head and subject to change - I’d define it as “a price at which a knowledgeable seller should easily be able to obtain an appreciably higher price”. Please don’t ask what “an appreciably higher price” is.😬

Some people seem to use it to describe a buy where the purchaser takes advantage of a less knowledgeable seller.

MFeld

@MasonG said:

@MFeld said:
Admittedly, “rip” is a somewhat ambiguous term. At this moment, off the top of my head and subject to change - I’d define it as “a price at which a knowledgeable seller should easily be able to obtain an appreciably higher price”. Please don’t ask what “an appreciably higher price” is.😬

Some people seem to use it to describe a buy where the purchaser takes advantage of a less knowledgeable seller.

True, but once in a while, a buyer can get a “rip” from (even) a knowledgeable seller.

MasonG

@MFeld said:

@MasonG said:

@MFeld said:
Admittedly, “rip” is a somewhat ambiguous term. At this moment, off the top of my head and subject to change - I’d define it as “a price at which a knowledgeable seller should easily be able to obtain an appreciably higher price”. Please don’t ask what “an appreciably higher price” is.😬

Some people seem to use it to describe a buy where the purchaser takes advantage of a less knowledgeable seller.

True, but once in a while, a buyer can get a “rip” from (even) a knowledgeable seller.

Just not knowledgeable about the coin the buyer is ripping, I guess. Otherwise, it would be a gift.

Omegaraptor

Nice coins sell for good money. How nice was the 31-S in 65BN? There's a lot of variability especially with copper.

A lustrous AU58 is going to sell for more money than a dead AU58 - even if the number on the slab is the same.

coinhack

@johnny010 said:
I don’t get the logic of using a 3rd party to review a 3rd party. I buy the coins I like that have eye appeal to me. Better quality will always be subjective.

@MFeld said:
If "better quality will always be subjective", that at least partially diminishes the value in buying 3'd party/professionally graded coins in the first place. After all, it would "always be subjective" as to whether one coin, which is graded higher than another, is actually of better quality.

I not only believe that coin grading is subjective, because it certainly is, but I also don't think that diminishes the value of 3'd party graded coins. And coins that are graded lower than others of the same date that can often be nicer. And not just in an eye appeal way but also in technical and market grading. If that were not the case then there wouldn't be a constant stream of crack-outs, regrades and re-considerations.

One recent example. I have a friend who is building a PCGS registry set of Carson City Morgan dollars. His set is around top 10 and he is upgrading to go higher. I saw him at a recent coin show and he showed me some of his recent upgrades. He had 3 PCGS graded CC Morgans and all with CAC stickers. Needless to say, they are all gem blast white blazers with cascading cartwheel luster. The 3 were graded MS65, MS65+, and MS66.

This guy is an expert on these coins but he asked me what I thought. I told him that I thought the MS65 was the nicest and highest graded of the 3 and probably by a full grade. He agreed and told me that one of the largest dealers in the country also agreed.

What to do? He thinks he will either send the MS65 to PCGS for re-consideration or appeal to CAC to see if it could get a gold sticker. You know, cuz sometimes grading can just be subjective.

privatecoin

The state of the rare coin market is more stable than the stock or crypto market right now.

DisneyFan

@DeplorableDan said:

@DisneyFan said:

@MFeld said:

You don't "get the logic" that coins which tend to be of better quality are in greater demand and easier to sell?

I don't disagree with you. What concerns me is that the market for an early date (say prior to 1940) MS64 CAC coin is weaker than the demand for the same coin in MS66 CAC and even more so if it's a MS66+ CAC.

Can you give me an example of that scenario, are we talking about a common date Saint? For a coin like that, it's just that there is thousands and thousands of nice MS64 examples that some don't even bother to submit to CAC. In 66+CAC there may be a hundred or less examples to choose from. The supply is what's lopsided, not the demand.

Dan, no disrespect; but, you are playing at the deep end of the pool. That common date 1908 Saint of which there are 1657
with CACs is $2,830. One of them is mine, bought raw as an UNC. Few; but, they are there, are able to collect coins with that minimum to get into the game.

Many collectors would consider themselves fortunate to collect the 50 coin silver Classic Commeoratives with many coins under $500. At the top of their wish list would be a 1900 Lafayette dollar. CAC populations and values are 112 MS64 @$2,440, 68 MS65 @$7,500, and 27 MS66 @$16,200. I'd be happy with a very nice MS64 that had a CAC. But MS64 CAC at auction would probably be uh uh and the excitement would be there for a MS66 CAC.

mtn_scout

@jmlanzaf said:
That is really the simplest reason that a second opinion matters. With so much of the rare coin market transacted sight-unseen at auction, having a second opinion has value...no matter what some might say.

I think this depends to a degree. I've seen plenty of CAC coins with finger prints and other various problems that I'd never want to own. On the other hand I recently bought a lot of two coins at auction with no pictures but one of the coins was listed as CAC. I was hoping that the CAC sticker would indicate that quality was on point which thankfully it was but I knew that by not seeing the coin I was taking a risk. If one is buying a series they aren't familiar with I can definitely see where CAC is helpful.

PeakRarities

@DisneyFan said:

@DeplorableDan said:

@DisneyFan said:

@MFeld said:

You don't "get the logic" that coins which tend to be of better quality are in greater demand and easier to sell?

I don't disagree with you. What concerns me is that the market for an early date (say prior to 1940) MS64 CAC coin is weaker than the demand for the same coin in MS66 CAC and even more so if it's a MS66+ CAC.

Can you give me an example of that scenario, are we talking about a common date Saint? For a coin like that, it's just that there is thousands and thousands of nice MS64 examples that some don't even bother to submit to CAC. In 66+CAC there may be a hundred or less examples to choose from. The supply is what's lopsided, not the demand.

Dan, no disrespect; but, you are playing at the deep end of the pool. That common date 1908 Saint of which there are 1657
with CACs is $2,830. One of them is mine, bought raw as an UNC. Few; but, they are there, are able to collect coins with that minimum to get into the game.

Many collectors would consider themselves fortunate to collect the 50 coin silver Classic Commeoratives with many coins under $500. At the top of their wish list would be a 1900 Lafayette dollar. CAC populations and values are 112 MS64 @$2,440, 68 MS65 @$7,500, and 27 MS66 @$16,200. I'd be happy with a very nice MS64 that had a CAC. But MS64 CAC at auction would probably be uh uh and the excitement would be there for a MS66 CAC.

Ok, but your comment I replied to referenced pre 1940 CAC material in grades 64-66+, which are typically not inexpensive coins. If I understand correctly, you’re concerned that there’s so much competition at the upper end of the market?

DisneyFan

@DeplorableDan said:

@DisneyFan said:

@DeplorableDan said:

@DisneyFan said:

@MFeld said:

You don't "get the logic" that coins which tend to be of better quality are in greater demand and easier to sell?

I don't disagree with you. What concerns me is that the market for an early date (say prior to 1940) MS64 CAC coin is weaker than the demand for the same coin in MS66 CAC and even more so if it's a MS66+ CAC.

Can you give me an example of that scenario, are we talking about a common date Saint? For a coin like that, it's just that there is thousands and thousands of nice MS64 examples that some don't even bother to submit to CAC. In 66+CAC there may be a hundred or less examples to choose from. The supply is what's lopsided, not the demand.

Dan, no disrespect; but, you are playing at the deep end of the pool. That common date 1908 Saint of which there are 1657
with CACs is $2,830. One of them is mine, bought raw as an UNC. Few; but, they are there, are able to collect coins with that minimum to get into the game.

Many collectors would consider themselves fortunate to collect the 50 coin silver Classic Commeoratives with many coins under $500. At the top of their wish list would be a 1900 Lafayette dollar. CAC populations and values are 112 MS64 @$2,440, 68 MS65 @$7,500, and 27 MS66 @$16,200. I'd be happy with a very nice MS64 that had a CAC. But MS64 CAC at auction would probably be uh uh and the excitement would be there for a MS66 CAC.

Ok, but your comment I replied to referenced pre 1940 CAC material in grades 64-66+, which are typically not inexpensive coins. If I understand correctly, you’re concerned that there’s so much competition at the upper end of the market?

That's correct. Take another example, my favorite undervalued commemorative, the 1937-S Arkansas. CAC populations and values are 17 MS64 @ $211, 38 MS65 @$321, 34 MS66 @$936, and 5 MS67 @ $8,750. Is there strong demand for a MS64?

jmlanzaf

@DisneyFan said:

@DeplorableDan said:

@DisneyFan said:

@DeplorableDan said:

@DisneyFan said:

@MFeld said:

You don't "get the logic" that coins which tend to be of better quality are in greater demand and easier to sell?

I don't disagree with you. What concerns me is that the market for an early date (say prior to 1940) MS64 CAC coin is weaker than the demand for the same coin in MS66 CAC and even more so if it's a MS66+ CAC.

Can you give me an example of that scenario, are we talking about a common date Saint? For a coin like that, it's just that there is thousands and thousands of nice MS64 examples that some don't even bother to submit to CAC. In 66+CAC there may be a hundred or less examples to choose from. The supply is what's lopsided, not the demand.

Dan, no disrespect; but, you are playing at the deep end of the pool. That common date 1908 Saint of which there are 1657
with CACs is $2,830. One of them is mine, bought raw as an UNC. Few; but, they are there, are able to collect coins with that minimum to get into the game.

Many collectors would consider themselves fortunate to collect the 50 coin silver Classic Commeoratives with many coins under $500. At the top of their wish list would be a 1900 Lafayette dollar. CAC populations and values are 112 MS64 @$2,440, 68 MS65 @$7,500, and 27 MS66 @$16,200. I'd be happy with a very nice MS64 that had a CAC. But MS64 CAC at auction would probably be uh uh and the excitement would be there for a MS66 CAC.

Ok, but your comment I replied to referenced pre 1940 CAC material in grades 64-66+, which are typically not inexpensive coins. If I understand correctly, you’re concerned that there’s so much competition at the upper end of the market?

That's correct. Take another example, my favorite undervalued commemorative, the 1937-S Arkansas. CAC populations and values are 17 MS64 @ $211, 38 MS65 @$321, 34 MS66 @$936, and 5 MS67 @ $8,750. Is there strong demand for a MS64?

I don't think Arkansaa commems prove anything about the rest of the pool.

A. How many people collect them by date/mm?
B. For most commems, the value spread from 64 to 66 is so low that people always opt for 66. The spreads are much higher for the Lafayette and pre-1933 gold.

DisneyFan

@jmlanzaf said:

@DisneyFan said:

» show previous quotes

That's correct. Take another example, my favorite undervalued commemorative, the 1937-S Arkansas. CAC populations and values are 17 MS64 @ $211, 38 MS65 @$321, 34 MS66 @$936, and 5 MS67 @ $8,750. Is there strong demand for a MS64?
>

I don't think Arkansaa commems prove anything about the rest of the pool.

A. How many people collect them by date/mm?
B. For most commems, the value spread from 64 to 66 is so low that people always opt for 66. The spreads are much higher for the Lafayette and pre-1933 gold.

You have confirmed my point - "the value spread from 64 to 66 is so low that people always opt for 66." Lesser grades are unpopular.

According to Set Registry, approximately three times as many collect by type. So lets look at a typical Arkansas type coin - 1935-D. CAC populations and values are 65 MS66 @$390, 27 MS 67 @$1,620, 2 MS68 @$28,800. Would a MS66 be acceptable or would a higher grade be preferable? In any case, MS66s, MS67s and MS68s require truly qualified experts to distinguish the grades.

MFeld

@DisneyFan said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@DisneyFan said:

» show previous quotes

That's correct. Take another example, my favorite undervalued commemorative, the 1937-S Arkansas. CAC populations and values are 17 MS64 @ $211, 38 MS65 @$321, 34 MS66 @$936, and 5 MS67 @ $8,750. Is there strong demand for a MS64?
>

I don't think Arkansaa commems prove anything about the rest of the pool.

A. How many people collect them by date/mm?
B. For most commems, the value spread from 64 to 66 is so low that people always opt for 66. The spreads are much higher for the Lafayette and pre-1933 gold.

You have confirmed my point - "the value spread from 64 to 66 is so low that people always opt for 66." Lesser grades are unpopular.

According to Set Registry, approximately three times as many collect by type. So lets look at a typical Arkansas type coin - 1935-D. CAC populations and values are 65 MS66 @$390, 27 MS 67 @$1,620, 2 MS68 @$28,800. Would a MS66 be acceptable or would a higher grade be preferable? In any case, MS66s, MS67s and MS68s require truly qualified experts to distinguish the grades.

I think it can be just as difficult to distinguish a 63 from a 64, a 64 from a 65, etc. as it is a 66 from a 67, etc. It's just that when it comes to higher grades and prices, many people prefer extra reassurance.

TwoSides2aCoin

It's kind of the new normal. I was about to buy some coins recently and reached as deep into my pockets as I could get,. Ended up with lint.

Indianlincoln

@MrEureka said:
.> @Indianlincoln said:

Ended up randomly going to a show in Albany, New York. Hosted at the Polish community center

There was a great turn out

Saw a nice 1931s Lincoln PCGS ms65 bn. Seller wanted $100 over price guide.

Saw a 1932-s quarter pcgs ms63 with cac, dealer wanted $120 over cac price guide

Another dealer had a 1932-D quarter anacs f-12 and wanted $60 over Pcgs price guide

1914-D Lincoln’s seemed to be popular and saw many people buying them even in low grades

Many low quality coins seemed to be selling for a premium

Is this the new normal?

Is this something new for those coins at that venue?

Also, just out of curiosity, how many people did you actually see buying low grade 14-D's at the show?

Not sure if it’s something new…I would estimate that 60% of that show was focused on gold and silver bullion/common date gold and silver. At least my interpretation

I saw a pcgs vg-8, along with two pcgs vf-20, 1914-D Lincolns sell right in front of me. So that’s why I believed they were hot that day

DisneyFan

@MFeld said:

I think it can be just as difficult to distinguish a 63 from a 64, a 64 from a 65, etc. as it is a 66 from a 67, etc. It's just that when it comes to higher grades and prices, many people prefer extra reassurance.

I think readers have misunderstood my comments. I am strongly in favor of CAC as well as PCGS & NGC. My concern is the lower MS/PF grades are not as popular with the emphasis on the higher grades with much higher costs.

Zoins

@Indianlincoln said:
State of the rare coin market

Ended up randomly going to a show in Albany, New York. Hosted at the Polish community center

There was a great turn out
...
Many low quality coins seemed to be selling for a premium

Is this the new normal?

There was a similar thread commenting on high prices by @Catbert recently, and I've heard from multiple dealers that they are doing well.

https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1088660/getting-blown-out-at-gc-market-discussion#latest