I think it can be just as difficult to distinguish a 63 from a 64, a 64 from a 65, etc. as it is a 66 from a 67, etc. It's just that when it comes to higher grades and prices, many people prefer extra reassurance.
I think readers have misunderstood my comments. I am strongly in favor of CAC as well as PCGS & NGC. My concern is the lower MS/PF grades are not as popular with the emphasis on the higher grades with much higher costs.
Why does that concern you?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I think readers have misunderstood my comments. I am strongly in favor of CAC as well as PCGS & NGC. My concern is the lower MS/PF grades are not as popular with the emphasis on the higher grades with much higher costs.
Why does that concern you?
Simply stated I'm a stamp collector and I have seen the hobby die for lots of reasons that I won't go into. I sold all of my stamps at the right time.
Coin collecting was dying prior to the pandemic which brought in new blood. I saw the values go down. For coin collecting to thrive, all grades need to have an appeal. In the case of commeoratives, $22,000 for a type set in MS64 to a new collector doesn't seem as overpowering as $72,000 for a set in MS66.
I think readers have misunderstood my comments. I am strongly in favor of CAC as well as PCGS & NGC. My concern is the lower MS/PF grades are not as popular with the emphasis on the higher grades with much higher costs.
Why does that concern you?
Simply stated I'm a stamp collector and I have seen the hobby die for lots of reasons that I won't go into. I sold all of my stamps at the right time.
Coin collecting was dying prior to the pandemic which brought in new blood. I saw the values go down. For coin collecting to thrive, all grades need to have an appeal. In the case of commeoratives, $22,000 for a type set in MS64 to a new collector doesn't seem as overpowering as $72,000 for a set in MS66.
I don't agree that coin collecting was dying, prior to the pandemic.
As to your concern - a new collector is free to pursue the MS64 set and at the same time, those who want to assemble higher grade sets, can do so. Many collectors are thankful (not concerned) when lower grade coins see less demand, as it makes them more affordable.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
As you suggest, five years ago there seemed to be thread after thread pursuing a topic like "is the hobby dying". One thing I can say for sure is that the "is the market irrationally exuberant" threads are a heck of a lot more fun!
Based on my own limited experience, market fundamentals may be healthier than you think. My own COVID project went back to my collecting roots -- I put together a circulated (VG-F) Barber half set, now complete except for the 1896-S. In doing so, when looking (usually online) through raw coins, I had to search 50 - 100 to find a coin I liked. Even among slabbed coins, I often looked at 5 - 10 before settling on a coin with the look I prefer. Even in this niche, people are often paying a premium above price guides for nice coins. To me, that suggests that there are a lot of "ordinary" collectors out there paying attention and searching for the nicest coins. For the most part, these are not finance or tech billionaires looking for places to park their money and egos. Doesn't this suggests that there may be a pretty strong collector base?
@MFeld said:
I don't agree that coin collecting was dying, prior to the pandemic.
Everybody has their own point of reference.
As a "new collector" in 2002 I saw a MS64 Hawaiian reach a PCGS price guide of $4,800 in 2005, come down to $2,500 in 2020 and today is $3,200. A MS 641918-D Walker reached $9,500 in 2005, go way down prior to the pandemic and then recover somewhat to $5,500 today. A MS65 1921 Peace dollar around that time was $2,850 went down to $1,800 and today is $4,000. I'm sure others will quote much better success stories; but, that was my experience, It was a little scary for a while.
I would also add that people don't like to lose money and coin shows have a lot of amateurs. If they paid guide for the quarter, they are going to want over guide. Since they aren't relying on coin income for a living, they can wait. I've seen dealers at show with the same inventory year-after-year. They are hobbyists amusing themselves at the coin show and don't really care if they sell anything.
I think it's not only hobbyists but even some of the bigger dealers act like amateurs. I was interested in a premium quality
National Banknote at the Orlando Fun Show several years ago. SN 00000001A.........and the guy wanted $1800. I was really beside myself trying to decide if I wanted to make the purchase or not.......until he took the note out of the protective holder and started putting his finger prints all over it as he "showed it to me." When I told him he really shouldn't handle the bill like that he just said, "aw, this won't hurt it one bit.......so let's make a deal." I walked away in disgust. Guess they're everywhere.
@MFeld said:
I don't agree that coin collecting was dying, prior to the pandemic.
Everybody has their own point of reference.
As a "new collector" in 2002 I saw a MS64 Hawaiian reach a PCGS price guide of $4,800 in 2005, come down to $2,500 in 2020 and today is $3,200. A MS 641918-D Walker reached $9,500 in 2005, go way down prior to the pandemic and then recover somewhat to $5,500 today. A MS65 1921 Peace dollar around that time was $2,850 went down to $1,800 and today is $4,000. I'm sure others will quote much better success stories; but, that was my experience, It was a little scary for a while.
You win some, you lose some. : )
In no way am I trying to invalidate the point you're making, but I think that in order to make any type of generalization about the market as a whole we would need to expand our data points beyond classic commems, which have been particularly volatile. Most coins did peak around 06-07 prior to the '08 recession, and took some time to recover thereafter but I interpreted that as a typical market cycle.
Comments
Why does that concern you?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Simply stated I'm a stamp collector and I have seen the hobby die for lots of reasons that I won't go into. I sold all of my stamps at the right time.
Coin collecting was dying prior to the pandemic which brought in new blood. I saw the values go down. For coin collecting to thrive, all grades need to have an appeal. In the case of commeoratives, $22,000 for a type set in MS64 to a new collector doesn't seem as overpowering as $72,000 for a set in MS66.
I don't agree that coin collecting was dying, prior to the pandemic.
As to your concern - a new collector is free to pursue the MS64 set and at the same time, those who want to assemble higher grade sets, can do so. Many collectors are thankful (not concerned) when lower grade coins see less demand, as it makes them more affordable.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@DisneyFan:
A couple of comments.
As you suggest, five years ago there seemed to be thread after thread pursuing a topic like "is the hobby dying". One thing I can say for sure is that the "is the market irrationally exuberant" threads are a heck of a lot more fun!
Based on my own limited experience, market fundamentals may be healthier than you think. My own COVID project went back to my collecting roots -- I put together a circulated (VG-F) Barber half set, now complete except for the 1896-S. In doing so, when looking (usually online) through raw coins, I had to search 50 - 100 to find a coin I liked. Even among slabbed coins, I often looked at 5 - 10 before settling on a coin with the look I prefer. Even in this niche, people are often paying a premium above price guides for nice coins. To me, that suggests that there are a lot of "ordinary" collectors out there paying attention and searching for the nicest coins. For the most part, these are not finance or tech billionaires looking for places to park their money and egos. Doesn't this suggests that there may be a pretty strong collector base?
Everybody has their own point of reference.
As a "new collector" in 2002 I saw a MS64 Hawaiian reach a PCGS price guide of $4,800 in 2005, come down to $2,500 in 2020 and today is $3,200. A MS 641918-D Walker reached $9,500 in 2005, go way down prior to the pandemic and then recover somewhat to $5,500 today. A MS65 1921 Peace dollar around that time was $2,850 went down to $1,800 and today is $4,000. I'm sure others will quote much better success stories; but, that was my experience, It was a little scary for a while.
You win some, you lose some. : )
I think it's not only hobbyists but even some of the bigger dealers act like amateurs. I was interested in a premium quality
National Banknote at the Orlando Fun Show several years ago. SN 00000001A.........and the guy wanted $1800. I was really beside myself trying to decide if I wanted to make the purchase or not.......until he took the note out of the protective holder and started putting his finger prints all over it as he "showed it to me." When I told him he really shouldn't handle the bill like that he just said, "aw, this won't hurt it one bit.......so let's make a deal." I walked away in disgust. Guess they're everywhere.
In no way am I trying to invalidate the point you're making, but I think that in order to make any type of generalization about the market as a whole we would need to expand our data points beyond classic commems, which have been particularly volatile. Most coins did peak around 06-07 prior to the '08 recession, and took some time to recover thereafter but I interpreted that as a typical market cycle.
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