Getting Blown Out at GC - Market Discussion
Catbert
Posts: 7,340 ✭✭✭✭✭
I was attempting to win a seated half AU58 CAC and it went 3X CAC price guide. Certainly it was attractive and worthy of a premium but I was surprised by the end result. Viewing Instagram this morning, I saw a post from @U1chicago (u1toning there) of a common date MS64 nicely toned Morgan going for 7K.
While these two pieces had attractive toning and perhaps not indicative of a trend using just 2 examples, I'm just amazed that the coin market appears so exuberant given the general economic nervousness so often noted in the news.
What say you?
Seated Half Society member #38
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
1
Comments
Folks need to be very careful right now. Some pain for buyers in the US coin market is inevitable.
There's a lot of inflated and irrational money floating around....
The whole extreme prices for extreme toning thing I have to believe will end with a lot of people not finding the same demand if they go to sell. You better really-really like it yourself and just want to keep it.
Depends on the Seated coin. I will give you my opinion if I know what the coin is. Toned coins can be all over the place.
You could easily have "won" last night. Send a link to the coin.
I say that your two-coin sample size was far too small to be meaningful and that you can probably safely omit the word "perhaps" from "perhaps not indicative of a trend".
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I'm guessing this is the coin? That does look pretty sweet. As for the $2925 final price wow! I have been guilty of spending MS money on certain XF and AU examples of this series in the past, congrats to whoever won it.
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1323062/1873-Seated-Liberty-Half-Dollar-No-Arrows-Closed-3-PCGS-AU-58-CAC-Toned
That one reminds me a little bit of my type set piece...
.
Click on this link to see my ebay listings.
when 2 people really want something and for them guides are just guides, a high price will likely be the result
when I am interested in an item, I do not let it bug me when it passes my max because I do not have enough money to buy everything, but hope to still have enough the next time one I want becomes available.
@LJenkins11 yep, that was it.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Old retired men with significant disposable income are never the economic canary in the coal mine.
That said, the toner market has been exuberant for a while. Even toning that I find unattractive will often catch a bid. But that is a market segment. You can't extrapolate that to the entire market. Not that there's any tremendous weakness in most market segments.
Every time I see stuff like this I'm slightly tempted to sell it all.
That said, surprising results can be found in almost any auction, in good times and bad.
Everything with a CAC sticker seems to be doing well at the auctions.
I went after some items last night and struck out. Gold is still strong and if there is a CAC sticker it is still doing very well.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
I bid on about a dozen coins on GC last night, mostly gold including some foreign and some currency. Good mix of stuff. Used Heritage as a bidding guide, but bid somewhat over recent Heritage prices. I was blown out of the water on every single coin. I wasn't even the underbidder on most items.
Researching prices and bidding was mostly a waste of my time. But it did confirm that GC is still bringing strong prices and when I go to sell I'll likely use them.
Was watching that one as well but did not bid. Cool piece to be sure. Grading and judging based solely on eye appeal, it’s not entirely surprising that it sold for MS63 money imho.
I don't think that toners are very representative of the market overall, there seems to be an insatiable desire for toned material and has been for quite some time. Add a green bean and all bets are off, having said that, the coin market overall still seems to have lots of money flowing into it.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Just because the market has been exuberant and prices in some segments seem irrational, don't assume that it will reverse. Markets can remain irrational for long stretches of time. Also, I don't believe the coming recession (which may or may not happen) will effect the wealthy that play in the higher end of the coin market. The only thing I know for sure is that we don't know!
7.5x and 14x guide.
Check out my iPhone app SlabReader!
I watched that 1938 mercury dime mentioned above by @MonsterCoinz last night. Am I missing something? I'm still relatively new here so when I see a coin sell for so much over the price guides I wonder if I'm missing something. That being said I know it could just be the obvious that 2 people wanted it really bad. But in the case of the above 1938 dime at least 3 bidders were willing to pay over 1000 for it while price guide is 175.
Sometimes you just have to let the crazy bidders have it and walk away. This one is an MS-64 CAC. I paid less for it years ago that the prices realized on the OP coin.
This a Proof I have for the With Motto type. It is a PCGS PR-64.
According to the Grey Sheet, I'm losing money on both of them.
I agree with this to an extent, but must also add that I have specialized in the extremely attractive toned coin niche for three decades and have read or heard this sentiment many hundreds (perhaps even thousands) of times and it has been my experience that nice coins always find multiple willing buyers. Of course, not every coin will turn a profit or maintain its price level, but as long as someone doesn't go nuts, which applies to every niche in this hobby, then owners of nicely toned coins have always had very liquid and oftentimes very profitable coinage.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
As to your point @Catbert I was following a coin that appeared to have very nice, though not exactly unusual or unique, toning for the date and I took it off my watch list when it went well beyond what I thought it was worth. It was an otherwise generic coin and I could not justify the eye appeal with the final result. However, I have also found that over the decades when I have been in this position it has been due to my being behind the market just as often as it has been to the market being too hot and ready for a correction.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
That’s the first PCGS PL Walker I’ve seen.
Ditto for me.
That is a crazy price.
Beautiful coin.
In most cases, when a coin with a high population (such as the 1938 dime) brings that type of premium, it's because 2 or more bidders believe that it's under-graded and/or that the color is exceptional.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I bid on four different coins last night on GC, and "won" two; none was a high-dollar item, and all went for something in the neighborhood of Greysheet value. Several more that I was interested in blew past my max price, so I did not bid (but none was "overpriced" by any rational measure; just that I was going to buy only if I got a bargain).
Before bidding, I decide on a max that I think the coin is worth to me; if the clock is winding down, and the bidding has not yet reached my max, I'll put in my max bid at the end. Sometimes I get the coin, sometimes I don't. If I get it, I'm pleased; If I don't, someone else wanted it more than I did (which doesn't bother me).
I do not detect any general trend toward seemingly-absurd prices; I long have been "successful" about 40% of the time on GC (meaning my "max price" gets a coin I'm interested in, when I'm not just hoping to get a bargain), and that's still the case. But I don't particularly like "toned" coins, and I don't play in the really high end of the market (populated by people with much more money than I have, so beyond my means to compete).
I watched a couple of nice coins on GC last night. Both were CAC. Both went below PCGS pricing even with CAC and both were bargains. Won, one. The other was just out of my budget; was hoping that no one noticed the coin but that was wishful thinking. I sure liked that Lincoln 1942 PR67+ RD, only one per PCGS. I guess I'll settle for a 65, 66 or a 67.
USAF (Ret.) 1985 - 2005. E-4B Aircraft Maintenance Crew Chief and Contracting Officer.
My current Registry sets:
✓ Everyman Mint State Carson City Morgan Dollars (1878 – 1893)
✓ Everyman Mint State Lincoln Cents (1909 – 1958)
✓ Morgan Dollar GSA Hoard (1878 – 1891)
Sometimes it's the opposite. They need to simplify their estates.
I sold a common date coin for 6X market price last night at GC because it was super attractive and 2 people wanted it. Surprised me for sure wasn’t expecting that. Would post here but don’t want to take any chances of it getting returned for the time being.
Then again I sold a 1938 S Jefferson Nickel PCGS MS 65 OBH with amazing luster and strike and super clean surfaces and only received $11 for it. That I didn’t see coming. Sold for the price of nice steak at Target, go figure
Stumbled across this in my research......
This sold last night for $1250 hammer and S1406.25 all in. It sold for $3055, all in, just 3 months ago, on another site. PCGS retail is $1350. Consignor had his $1805 lunch eaten. What do you guys think? Great deal or not so much? Personally, I think it's worth the $1406.25, myself, but not the $3055. That is JMHO.
Maybe the first chap was fooled by the glamour shots:
Or maybe he just expected MORE, when in hand....Dunno...
This is why you don't rely on just ONE set of images, when unable to view in hand.
I paid $1700 for mine, which is $350 over retail, and I'm a happy camper!!
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Like your coin much better
I lose a lot of auctions as I only pay so much and have no desire get in bid war with rich collector, many times I find nice coins buy for inventory from eBay seller less than I would have to bid at auction.
Yes nice toners bring insane money / bids. That is simply not an arena I care to play
in. Being end user not my goal.
You bet many of them lose money big time. But they could be very rich and that’s like paying more for a Luxury car with all kind of mods then getting bored blowing it out later.
It seems better to sell at auction than buy unless you need something specific you can’t find on the internet.
Gorgeous seated half.
A special coin like that can exceed guide by a lot.
"Inspiration exists, but it has to find you working" Pablo Picasso
The trend that I keep seeing is that eye appealing coins (be it toned or blast white) continue to do well. I have also heard the talk that the market can't sustain these prices (it started in 2021 after the 2020 price bump). I have not seen any easing yet. Of course there are examples of coins that have dropped in price but the general trajectory for eye appealing specimens is steady or increasing. The same also seems to be the case with coins in scarcer holders (NGC black/white, PCGS white rattler, doily, etc) and those with gold cac stickers. Even when the coin isn't that special, the prices tend to be high (and definitely much higher than 2019 or earlier levels).
Really high quality pieces with pretty stickers and attractive toning always have a good chance to go nuts. Just about everything I own falls into this category (minus the stickers for quite a few...doubt some have been to the sticker factory).
If someone wants the common, boring and the average then they're in luck, things like that go cheap. People can build their entire collection using Greysheet. If someone wants a collection of superior pieces then there's going to be a bit of competition...just have to know when to stop bidding sometimes.
Quality over Quantity.
Edit: Ooooo, I just noticed this was my 15,000th post. Lol
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
Each coin is unique. I recently sold this 1885 Morgan dollar, on GC, for 14X the PCGS price guide. It has exceptional toning.
I bought this coin before CAC began operations. Just before the auction, the coin was submitted to CAC by GC on my behalf, and they denied their approval. One of the reasons I don’t place much credence on their little sticker.
https://greatcollections.com/Coin/1260602/1885-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-64-Toned
Glad to see nice coins don’t need a sticker.
To me, looks like PCGS bumped that coin to 64 because of the eye appeal due to the toning. However, grade looks like a technical 63 and I’m not surprised it didn’t CAC. Doesn’t really matter regardless, you realized an extremely strong price!
I look in on GC to see what they have coming up that I'm looking for. And I buy regularly there (and sometimes at other auction sites). If you have discipline and patience, you can get a decent price at auction; if you get caught up in the "competition," you can get hosed.
On the flip side (see what I did there? I crack me up!), one can take a beating as a seller at auction, if it happens that only one person (or, worse, nobody) wants to buy your coin.
So, no, I would not agree, as a blanket statement, that it is better to sell at auction than buy.
I liked that one quite a bit (even knowing that it did not sticker, does not change my view). It went for more than I wanted to pay but I'm happy that you got a great result on it!
I believe this to be true as well. There are winners even in a recession and some of the "losers" will still have plenty of funds to spend.
Thank you for your sentiments, but it was not really a great result. I paid $920 for it in a Heritage auction in 2003, kept it 20 years, and it sold for $1856 with the buyer’s fee.
The opposite? Retired old men with significant disposable income become impoverished before poor young people without disposable income?
Even in the Great Depression, 75 to 80% of the people stayed employed. Like Vault Box, the pain is not spread evenly.
[Sorry, I couldn't resist.]
Everyman coin, beautiful toning, CAC and a couple deep pocket collectors. Gotta love auctions sometimes.
Dave
Are we comparing apples to apples? I know of quite a few dealers who buy a lot of their inventory from auctions, and I can rarely find coins I like in someone’s inventory that are priced lower than comps.
Founder- Peak Rarities
Website
Instagram
Facebook
")
I'm not surprised it didn't CAC either. It has a fair amount of chatter and that dark spot in the hair could be viewed as questionable. It's nice, but nice isn't the same as being A or B for the grade.
Edited to correct "exceptional ".