Are price pressures easing a bit on U.S. gold coins with CAC?

ms71

In the last couple weeks, I've noticed several instances of prices on PCGS CAC gold coins that were less than I would have expected given the frenetic market over the past year. Just this morning I looked at Legend's inventory and spotted two that surprised me. First one is a 1904 $20 Liberty in PCGS 64+ CAC at $2,950. Second is a 1932 $10 Indian in PCGS 65 CAC at $5,850. Both appear to be very nice coins and below the prices I've seen on similar examples over the past months. And I've also noticed a fair number of other nice four-figure CAC gold coins sitting longer in various inventories without getting immediately marked "SOLD". Does this indicate anything of a trend in the market? (notes: I'm not speaking about the "high-end" five and six figure coins, and I have no connection whatsoever with Legend or any other dealer).

PeakRarities

While I agree that it might not be the same white hot market we had in the middle of last year, I haven’t seen the CAC gold market soften much, and I’m still battling to win coins in auctions. Some dealers were really reaching for the stars with their prices the past six months, and I think we’re just seeing prices level off a bit as reality kicks in. While priced reasonably, the two coins you mentioned are extremely common even with CAC, and Laura is priced in line with some of the highest comps. Doug winter sent out his new inventory email a little while ago and half of the coins were sold that day. There is but a small handful of inventory remaining on his site.

skier07

I think prices are a little lower now. A gold guru has recently said the market although still strong is a little weaker today. Lots of reasons. The never ending dumpage of the Fairmont hoard together with a weaker stock market and a questionable economy.

johnny010

@skier07 said:
I think prices are a little lower now. A gold guru has recently said the market although still strong is a little weaker today. Lots of reasons. The never ending dumpage of the Fairmont hoard together with a weaker stock market and a questionable economy.

How many coins has Fairmont put back into the market? I’ve seen a few comments about this group over the last couple of weeks.

ElmerFusterpuck

I'm a bit leery of the high prices on MS-66 and 66+ CAC common dates like the 1924 or 1928 $20's. They're getting near tulip bulb mania, though I've seen a slight easing too.

lkenefic

I'm out until gold takes another dive and stays there for a while

pcgscacgold

I’ll have to take a look at the $10 again. I seem to remember it had a black mark on the reverse. Deal breaker for me. I can see why it’s a little cheaper.

PeakRarities

@ElmerFusterpuck said:
I'm a bit leery of the high prices on MS-66 and 66+ CAC common dates like the 1924 or 1928 $20's. They're getting near tulip bulb mania, though I've seen a slight easing too.

Of all parts of the market I'm the most leery about, common date high grade gold with a + on the holder is high on the list for me. Don't get me wrong, I pay strong for coins that are strong, but you can find some 64+ coins that are not even marginally more attractive than most 64s yet priced closer to the 65 arena. I would have loved to stock up on 1878 $3 in MS64cac 3 years ago, get a few +'s applied, and list those coins for price guide value at 10k as some do now. The reality is that most experienced collectors in the gold market know what they want, and if a coin sells strong it probably was strong. On the flip side, I see some ms65s that I wouldn't pay 64+ money for, but I also don't compete in the registry so it all comes down to buying what I like and making informed decisions regarding the amount of eye appeal I'm getting per dollar. What we've seen the past couple years is some deep pocketed collectors "Swimming in the deep end of the Saint market" as DW put it in his market analysis. Will this persist as time goes on? I have no clue, but I don't intend to wait on the sidelines for the prices to come down. There's many type collectors like me who want the one prettiest coin they can find to represent a series, and I think that for more common coins, PQ-Luster Bomb material is always going to perform better than an run of the mill example that trades at sheet bid.

olympicsos

@ElmerFusterpuck said:
I'm a bit leery of the high prices on MS-66 and 66+ CAC common dates like the 1924 or 1928 $20's. They're getting near tulip bulb mania, though I've seen a slight easing too.

They were sleeping for a while. Generic saints had the least numismatic premium vs. PM content for a while.

Cougar1978

On terms of thread title -yes.

At a show setup up last weekend there was talk of a market softening in that area by many players around me coupled with a downward correction. I did well with some generic 64 & 65 Saints (non CAC) as people looking for pieces pick out for their portfolio without the hefty premium. Sold a few doing nicely as I know pick out nice pieces. No pay dinero sticker premium.

Many in anticipation of a downturn backing off that material feeling premiums too high. I question if the coins themselves that PQ that they justify such huge premiums. Will they be crashing soon? I wonder why not already happened. I have counseled my clients to buy graded world gold (much scarcer) and modern slabbed US gold especially if close to melt. I think slabbed Mexico gold 50 Peso (early 20th century) with their low pops have really huge potential. Been working on set plus upgrading as go along. Another issue chasing is French 100 Franc Angels. These are awesome coins, scarce with huge potential. Really tough to find. A fellow Coin club friend chasing Vatican Gold.

blitzdude

I don't have a direct answer to your question but as the saying goes: "Gold is a no brainer, stickers not so much." RGDS!

logger7

The high end and premium market will continue to be in strong demand, I don't see any countervailing economic forces that would change that much unless a heavy hitter like Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk needed to liquidate a large collection.

Cougar1978

I think scarce better dates will remain in demand.

GoldFinger1969

@DeplorableDan said:
While I agree that it might not be the same white hot market we had in the middle of last year, I haven’t seen the CAC gold market soften much, and I’m still battling to win coins in auctions. Some dealers were really reaching for the stars with their prices the past six months, and I think we’re just seeing prices level off a bit as reality kicks in. While priced reasonably, the two coins you mentioned are extremely common even with CAC, and Laura is priced in line with some of the highest comps. Doug winter sent out his new inventory email a little while ago and half of the coins were sold that day. There is but a small handful of inventory remaining on his site.

I have to agree with this. Remember, we had LOTS of people discover the joy of keyboard coin collecting during Covid (say that 3 times fast !! ). You don't need a huge increase in demand to move thin inventory levels out and raise prices....just a few hundred newbies for a non-rare coin in Mint condition can move the price. If there are 25,000 type collectors of Double Eagles, a few thousand newcomers can move the price for the lower-priced coins and quasi-numismatics. Same thing happened with lots of coins and currency pieces during Covid.

Don't forget the exodus of the meme stock and crytpo/BitCoin players the last 12-18 months. Some of their $$$ went into gold and quasi-numsimatics like $3 pieces, large denomination bills, Saints and Liberty DEs, Eagles, etc.

GoldFinger1969

@skier07 said:
I think prices are a little lower now. A gold guru has recently said the market although still strong is a little weaker today. Lots of reasons. The never ending dumpage of the Fairmont hoard together with a weaker stock market and a questionable economy.

Are you seeing talk that Fairmont had lots of common stuff behind-the-scenes that is slowly coming out month after month ? I thought most of the core pieces and most valuable ones were sold by now.

GoldFinger1969

@ElmerFusterpuck said:
I'm a bit leery of the high prices on MS-66 and 66+ CAC common dates like the 1924 or 1928 $20's. >They're getting near tulip bulb mania, though I've seen a slight easing too.

What price range and in what time frame are you talking about ? I've seen an upward move over the last year or so in some Double Eagles but that's because whenever gold gets close to $2,000 the market thinks it's going to run another $500 and everybody jumps the gun. Especially true for commons which track gold closer to 1-for-1.

Trust me, the little bumps in response to a rise in gold of $200 over the last few years or a surge in new buyers is NOTHING compared to the Coin Bubbles of the past (tulip mania as you called it). Back then gold moved maybe 15-20% (sometimes less) and MS-65 and MS-63 Saints tripled in 18 months.

GoldFinger1969

FWIW, I have been tracking auction prices on GC weekly for a while and I don't see any spike in prices the last 12-18 months-- I see lots of stuff going asking for a single bid when the reserve is too high. Haven't followed HA as closely lately. But mostly seems to track gold, with prices jumping (and overshooting) on any gold run of more than $100 and then giving back the gains much much slowly.

MS-65 and 66 Saints might be $100-$200 high at times, but nothing outrageous. 67's either see good bidding and fair prices or they go begging for a bid if the seller is thousands too high on their ask.

MCMVII HR's have definitely moved up especially in the "affordable" AU grades.

TwoSides2aCoin

There is only so much juice one can squeeze out of a bottle of glue

jmlanzaf

@TwoSides2aCoin said:
There is only so much juice one can squeeze out of a bottle of glue

There's only so much glue you can squeeze out of an orange.

BillJones

@lkenefic said:
I'm out until gold takes another dive and stays there for a while

That's not a bad strategy if you are buying common date $20 gold pieces. I'm old enough to remember the rollercoaster bullion rides, and nothing is permanent.

If you are looking at a truly scarce coin, where the bullion content does not mean that much, it's another story. Some things are only available once and while, and when you see the right one, you need to pounce.

GoldFinger1969

@BillJones said:

@lkenefic said:
I'm out until gold takes another dive and stays there for a while

That's not a bad strategy if you are buying common date $20 gold pieces. I'm old enough to remember the rollercoaster bullion rides, and nothing is permanent.

If you are looking at a truly scarce coin, where the bullion content does not mean that much, it's another story. Some things are only available once and while, and when you see the right one, you need to pounce.

I agree with your second point completely.

As for waiting for prices to back off....good strategy when something has shot up a ton (I just hedged our natural gas exposure at $2.50/mcf after seeing it spike to $10 last summer). But what about when something -- gold -- has been basing and in a trading range for YEARS ?

What if it doesn't come down ?

Then folks chase...they missed out on $2,000 gold so they chase at $2,500 and that causes the spike to $3,000 and the collapse....and gold is dead for another 5-7 years.

skier07

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@skier07 said:
I think prices are a little lower now. A gold guru has recently said the market although still strong is a little weaker today. Lots of reasons. The never ending dumpage of the Fairmont hoard together with a weaker stock market and a questionable economy.

Are you seeing talk that Fairmont had lots of common stuff behind-the-scenes that is slowly coming out month after month ? I thought most of the core pieces and most valuable ones were sold by now.

I thought I had pretty good information about the Fairmont hoard a few years ago but at this point I have absolutely no idea what the future holds. I was told that only the better coins were slabbed and being sold as Fairmont and that the more pedestrian coins were being sold by a bullion company with ties to SB.

Vasanti

When you adjust for inflation, gold has been pretty stable for the last 12 years. I see much more of a downside than an upside, but that’s just a WAG.

GoldFinger1969

@skier07 said:

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@skier07 said:
I think prices are a little lower now. A gold guru has recently said the market although still strong is a little weaker today. Lots of reasons. The never ending dumpage of the Fairmont hoard together with a weaker stock market and a questionable economy.

Are you seeing talk that Fairmont had lots of common stuff behind-the-scenes that is slowly coming out month after month ? I thought most of the core pieces and most valuable ones were sold by now.

I thought I had pretty good information about the Fairmont hoard a few years ago but at this point I have absolutely no idea what the future holds. I was told that only the better coins were slabbed and being sold as Fairmont and that the more pedestrian coins were being sold by a bullion company with ties to SB.

@skier07 said:

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@skier07 said:
I think prices are a little lower now. A gold guru has recently said the market although still strong is a little weaker today. Lots of reasons. The never ending dumpage of the Fairmont hoard together with a weaker stock market and a questionable economy.

Are you seeing talk that Fairmont had lots of common stuff behind-the-scenes that is slowly coming out month after month ? I thought most of the core pieces and most valuable ones were sold by now.

I thought I had pretty good information about the Fairmont hoard a few years ago but at this point I have absolutely no idea what the future holds. I was told that only the better coins were slabbed and being sold as Fairmont and that the more pedestrian coins were being sold by a bullion company with ties to SB.

Goes to what I said somewhere else in this or another thread....even if the coins are commons or only mildly-numismatic...you don't want to release the actual numbers in today's Information Age because everybody would know within hours or days. It could -- would ? -- depress the price.

At the time (1996), the size of the Wells Fargo Hoard was disclosed I believe (19,900 coins). But 1908 NM Saints were already pretty much a generic coin in most grades except MS-66 and above. So no harm, no foul which is why the total was disclosed.

Or was it ? Today, some numismatists think that the actual hoard was much larger (maybe with other denominations not revealed). Certainly, the full story has NOT been told.

lermish

Other than short-term fears like war or pandemics, the primary medium term (roughly 10-20yr cycles for most commodities) driver of gold prices is the strength or weakness of the US dollar. The dollar coming down a bit in the last couple of months from its all-time highs is what's helped move gold back up recently. It also helps to explain gold staying in a range for the last 15 years as the dollar has been fairly strong historically for that entire time.

Forward looking view, and I of course could be totally wrong, but I view the dollar as weakening over the next 1 to 3 years which should help gold prices a bit. I think we stay around $2,000 for the next year or so but move up into the $2300-2500 range within the next several years.

skier07

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@skier07 said:

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@skier07 said:
I think prices are a little lower now. A gold guru has recently said the market although still strong is a little weaker today. Lots of reasons. The never ending dumpage of the Fairmont hoard together with a weaker stock market and a questionable economy.

Are you seeing talk that Fairmont had lots of common stuff behind-the-scenes that is slowly coming out month after month ? I thought most of the core pieces and most valuable ones were sold by now.

I thought I had pretty good information about the Fairmont hoard a few years ago but at this point I have absolutely no idea what the future holds. I was told that only the better coins were slabbed and being sold as Fairmont and that the more pedestrian coins were being sold by a bullion company with ties to SB.

@skier07 said:

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@skier07 said:
I think prices are a little lower now. A gold guru has recently said the market although still strong is a little weaker today. Lots of reasons. The never ending dumpage of the Fairmont hoard together with a weaker stock market and a questionable economy.

Are you seeing talk that Fairmont had lots of common stuff behind-the-scenes that is slowly coming out month after month ? I thought most of the core pieces and most valuable ones were sold by now.

I thought I had pretty good information about the Fairmont hoard a few years ago but at this point I have absolutely no idea what the future holds. I was told that only the better coins were slabbed and being sold as Fairmont and that the more pedestrian coins were being sold by a bullion company with ties to SB.

Goes to what I said somewhere else in this or another thread....even if the coins are commons or only mildly-numismatic...you don't want to release the actual numbers in today's Information Age because everybody would know within hours or days. It could -- would ? -- depress the price.

At the time (1996), the size of the Wells Fargo Hoard was disclosed I believe (19,900 coins). But 1908 NM Saints were already pretty much a generic coin in most grades except MS-66 and above. So no harm, no foul which is why the total was disclosed.

Or was it ? Today, some numismatists think that the actual hoard was much larger (maybe with other denominations not revealed). Certainly, the full story has NOT been told.

+1

SB is the only party that benefits by not disclosing anything about the Fairmont hoard and coming up with stupid fictitious names for every new sale. The overall quality of the coins is outstanding and there are some truly rare pieces. But how would you feel if you bought a date with a low survivor population and five years later the number has increased 10%? Despite what I’ve been told by the experts that the market is big enough to absorb all the new coins it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that prices will drop.

BillJones

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@BillJones said:

@lkenefic said:
I'm out until gold takes another dive and stays there for a while

That's not a bad strategy if you are buying common date $20 gold pieces. I'm old enough to remember the rollercoaster bullion rides, and nothing is permanent.

If you are looking at a truly scarce coin, where the bullion content does not mean that much, it's another story. Some things are only available once and while, and when you see the right one, you need to pounce.

I agree with your second point completely.

As for waiting for prices to back off....good strategy when something has shot up a ton (I just hedged our natural gas exposure at $2.50/mcf after seeing it spike to $10 last summer). But what about when something -- gold -- has been basing and in a trading range for YEARS ?

What if it doesn't come down ?

Then folks chase...they missed out on $2,000 gold so they chase at $2,500 and that causes the spike to $3,000 and the collapse....and gold is dead for another 5-7 years.

I have seen gold go from a high of $850 go to where I could buy a common date NGC certified MS-63 $20 gold for around $350. It’s a nice coin. I still have it.

lilolme

@lermish said:
Other than short-term fears like war or pandemics, the primary medium term (roughly 10-20yr cycles for most commodities) driver of gold prices is the strength or weakness of the US dollar. The dollar coming down a bit in the last couple of months from its all-time highs is what's helped move gold back up recently. It also helps to explain gold staying in a range for the last 15 years as the dollar has been fairly strong historically for that entire time.

Forward looking view, and I of course could be totally wrong, but I view the dollar as weakening over the next 1 to 3 years which should help gold prices a bit. I think we stay around $2,000 for the next year or so but move up into the $2300-2500 range within the next several years.

.
Dollar weakening, this guy thinks so. I don't know of this guy and the moderator brings up some counter points. But are the foreign banks buying up gold again and the CBDC's coming with some centralization and a move away from dollar in some areas. Timeline? The interview is long, 51 minutes, but interesting. The last 1/3 more gold oriented. Up front about oil and CBDCs more.

Kitco

News Bites
Half the world to dump U.S. dollars in future, causing 'tsunami of inflation' and asset price 'collapse', paving the way for CBDCs and The Great Reset - Andy Schectman

https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-02-17/Half-the-world-to-dump-U-S-dollars-in-future-causing-tsunami-of-inflation-and-asset-price-collapse-paving-the-way-for-CBDCs-and-The-Great-Reset-Andy-Schectman.html

pcgscacgold

One need only search Heritage auction results from early 2000’s to see Double Eagles selling for $400. Just 20 years ago. Fun times for those that could take part.

breakdown

@skier07 said:

SB is the only party that benefits by not disclosing anything about the Fairmont hoard and coming up with stupid fictitious names for every new sale. The overall quality of the coins is outstanding and there are some truly rare pieces. But how would you feel if you bought a date with a low survivor population and five years later the number has increased 10%? Despite what I’ve been told by the experts that the market is big enough to absorb all the new coins it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that prices will drop.

I am still waiting for the prices to drop. I have been actively buying half eagles out of Fairmont because I am a collector and have seen some coins for dates that simply haven't been available in original, higher grade examples. I am not disagreeing with the logic that prices will drop, but I think Fairmont has in fact stimulated collectors to start buying the liberty half eagle series. When I first started collecting half eagles in 2015 or so, it was a nice sleepy series. Not the case any more.

Cougar1978

CAC gold coins seeing very high demand. Takes some pocket play in that arena.

Walkerfan

@Cougar1978 said:
CAC gold coins seeing very high demand. Takes some pocket play in that arena.

I notice this with ALL CAC coins......Now, more than ever....

GoldFinger1969

@Vasanti said:
When you adjust for inflation, gold has been pretty stable for the last 12 years. I see much more of a downside than an upside, but that’s just a WAG.

Why do you say it has more downside than upside ? I don't know where the next $250 move is in gold -- up or down -- but I know where the next $1,000 is....UP !!

Gold has been pretty stable and slowly rising/basing with or without inflation. Since 1973 when the price was allowed to float (rise !), the pattern has been huge runs lasting multi-years and then a longer period of declines and building a base.

1973-1980: Gold rises 20-fold from decades-long suppressed price
1980-2000: Gold declines 60% from 1980 peak and then builds a base over many years.
2000-2011: Gold rises 6-fold
2011-2015: Gold declines 40%.
2016-Present: Gold rises 75%

GoldFinger1969

"Half the world to dump U.S. dollars in future, causing 'tsunami of inflation' and asset price 'collapse', paving the way for CBDCs and The Great Reset - Andy Schectman"

Typical click-bait. Yes, he makes some good observations but then he throws it all away with a statement that is not logical or even possible when discussing a global reserve currency.

I would remind anybody who doubts that to recall what happened in 2011: the U.S. debt was downgraded in a political hissy-fit by Standard & Poors....caused financial stresses globally.....and safe money fled into....wait for it....U.S. dollar-denominated assets.

What does THAT tell you !!

GoldFinger1969

@pcgscacgold said:
One need only search Heritage auction results from early 2000’s to see Double Eagles selling for $400. Just 20 years ago. Fun times for those that could take part.

10 or 15 years from now, someone can be posting here that folks at CU were buying DEs for $2,000 each, compared to the $4,000 and up they're paying then.

Vasanti

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@Vasanti said:
When you adjust for inflation, gold has been pretty stable for the last 12 years. I see much more of a downside than an upside, but that’s just a WAG.

Why do you say it has more downside than upside ? I don't know where the next $250 move is in gold -- up or down -- but I know where the next $1,000 is....UP !!

Gold has been pretty stable and slowly rising/basing with or without inflation. Since 1973 when the price was allowed to float (rise !), the pattern has been huge runs lasting multi-years and then a longer period of declines and building a base.

1973-1980: Gold rises 20-fold from decades-long suppressed price
1980-2000: Gold declines 60% from 1980 peak and then builds a base over many years.
2000-2011: Gold rises 6-fold
2011-2015: Gold declines 40%.
2016-Present: Gold rises 75%

I don’t think those percentages are accurate when you take inflation into account. The price of gold was higher in 2012 than it is now, in inflation adjusted dollars.

GoldFinger1969

@Vasanti said:

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@Vasanti said:
When you adjust for inflation, gold has been pretty stable for the last 12 years. I see much more of a downside than an upside, but that’s just a WAG.

Why do you say it has more downside than upside ? I don't know where the next $250 move is in gold -- up or down -- but I know where the next $1,000 is....UP !!

Gold has been pretty stable and slowly rising/basing with or without inflation. Since 1973 when the price was allowed to float (rise !), the pattern has been huge runs lasting multi-years and then a longer period of declines and building a base.

1973-1980: Gold rises 20-fold from decades-long suppressed price
1980-2000: Gold declines 60% from 1980 peak and then builds a base over many years.
2000-2011: Gold rises 6-fold
2011-2015: Gold declines 40%.
2016-Present: Gold rises 75%

I don’t think those percentages are accurate when you take inflation into account. The price of gold was higher in 2012 than it is now, in inflation adjusted dollars.

Today's buyers are not adjusting for inflation. They buy based on need and/or value based on today's nominal price.

Inflation-adjusted numbers are good for studying stuff over decades of time. Not buying or selling in the hear-and-now.

Cougar1978

In ref to op question:

Not from what I see on the bourse or from market price analysis. Prices appear to be going up.

In looking at 1911-D $20 Saint (issue handled in past) it seems prices going up per CPG. For CAC the higher the grade the more the premium it seems for CAC. On this issue premium jumps from $450 for 64 to $1000 in 65.

Outlook: 1. Expect pay more. 2. Have lots of pocket. Got that knapsack of cash ready to go?

If your going buy this material get access to CPG. What is your confidence level CAC gold will go higher? Is this an area you will increase your investment in? Blowing out taking profits now? Or simply priced out. Get a handle on what they might bring at auction or shopping around for offers off bourse at a show if liquidating. On the buy side - Do u think sellers working angle padding up the ones (CAC) where CAC pop really low for the issue?

DisneyFan

@skier07 said:

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@skier07 said:

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@skier07 said:
I think prices are a little lower now. A gold guru has recently said the market although still strong is a little weaker today. Lots of reasons. The never ending dumpage of the Fairmont hoard together with a weaker stock market and a questionable economy.

Are you seeing talk that Fairmont had lots of common stuff behind-the-scenes that is slowly coming out month after month ? I thought most of the core pieces and most valuable ones were sold by now.

I thought I had pretty good information about the Fairmont hoard a few years ago but at this point I have absolutely no idea what the future holds. I was told that only the better coins were slabbed and being sold as Fairmont and that the more pedestrian coins were being sold by a bullion company with ties to SB.

Goes to what I said somewhere else in this or another thread....even if the coins are commons or only mildly-numismatic...you don't want to release the actual numbers in today's Information Age because everybody would know within hours or days. It could -- would ? -- depress the price.

At the time (1996), the size of the Wells Fargo Hoard was disclosed I believe (19,900 coins). But 1908 NM Saints were already pretty much a generic coin in most grades except MS-66 and above. So no harm, no foul which is why the total was disclosed.

Or was it ? Today, some numismatists think that the actual hoard was much larger (maybe with other denominations not revealed). Certainly, the full story has NOT been told.

+1

SB is the only party that benefits by not disclosing anything about the Fairmont hoard and coming up with stupid fictitious names for every new sale. The overall quality of the coins is outstanding and there are some truly rare pieces. But how would you feel if you bought a date with a low survivor population and five years later the number has increased 10%? Despite what I’ve been told by the experts that the market is big enough to absorb all the new coins it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that prices will drop.

Looks like it would be safe to collect half dimes, it's unlikely a bank would have put aside a hoard.

coinkat

The 1904 $20 Lib and the 1932 $10 Indian both have a high rate of survival in 64. While CAC has its importance, these two dates are simply not a bellweather to establish much of anything.

PeakRarities

@Cougar1978 said:
On terms of thread title -yes.
At a show setup up last weekend there was talk of a market softening in that area by many players around me coupled with a downward correction.

Many in anticipation of a downturn backing off that material feeling premiums too high. I question if the coins themselves that PQ that they justify such huge premiums. Will they be crashing soon? I wonder why not already happened.

@Cougar1978 said:
CAC gold coins seeing very high demand. Takes some pocket play in that arena.

@Cougar1978 said:
Not from what I see on the bourse or from market price analysis. Prices appear to be going up.

If your going buy this material get access to CPG. What is your confidence level CAC gold will go higher? Is this an area you will increase your investment in?

Can you clarify what your position is, exactly? Do you think there’s going to be a correction for PQ material only? Are you inferring that in the event of a market downturn, the premium for “A” coins will just dry up, and all coins with the same numerical grade will trade at the same price?

BillJones

@coinkat said:
The 1904 $20 Lib and the 1932 $10 Indian both have a high rate of survival in 64. While CAC has its importance, these two dates are simply not a bellweather to establish much of anything.

From what I have seen, there might be more 1932 $10 gold coins with the “MS-64” grade on them than pieces which really are MS-64s.

skier07

@DisneyFan said:

@skier07 said:

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@skier07 said:

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@skier07 said:
I think prices are a little lower now. A gold guru has recently said the market although still strong is a little weaker today. Lots of reasons. The never ending dumpage of the Fairmont hoard together with a weaker stock market and a questionable economy.

Are you seeing talk that Fairmont had lots of common stuff behind-the-scenes that is slowly coming out month after month ? I thought most of the core pieces and most valuable ones were sold by now.

I thought I had pretty good information about the Fairmont hoard a few years ago but at this point I have absolutely no idea what the future holds. I was told that only the better coins were slabbed and being sold as Fairmont and that the more pedestrian coins were being sold by a bullion company with ties to SB.

Goes to what I said somewhere else in this or another thread....even if the coins are commons or only mildly-numismatic...you don't want to release the actual numbers in today's Information Age because everybody would know within hours or days. It could -- would ? -- depress the price.

At the time (1996), the size of the Wells Fargo Hoard was disclosed I believe (19,900 coins). But 1908 NM Saints were already pretty much a generic coin in most grades except MS-66 and above. So no harm, no foul which is why the total was disclosed.

Or was it ? Today, some numismatists think that the actual hoard was much larger (maybe with other denominations not revealed). Certainly, the full story has NOT been told.

+1

SB is the only party that benefits by not disclosing anything about the Fairmont hoard and coming up with stupid fictitious names for every new sale. The overall quality of the coins is outstanding and there are some truly rare pieces. But how would you feel if you bought a date with a low survivor population and five years later the number has increased 10%? Despite what I’ve been told by the experts that the market is big enough to absorb all the new coins it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that prices will drop.

Looks like it would be safe to collect half dimes, it's unlikely a bank would have put aside a hoard.

It’s probably safe to collect gold dollars, quarter eagles, and $3 pieces. Territorial’s are probably also a safe bet too. If you can afford a Stella you’re probably okay.

Cougar1978

My latest comment (per op question, my latest analysis) reflects my take on it. Most importantly one should have access to CPG in planning bidding. I would suggest a $5 Indian Set in MS64 and higher. Perhaps all CAC? Always been a fan of early 20th century gold. Beyond that like market down road YMMV. Is your knapsack of cash ready and plane ticket to next big show purchased?

pcgscacgold

There are a lot of high price/low pop CAC Eagles up for auction on GC (over the next two weeks). Prices there will give you an idea of how things are going. Many are ex-Fairmont coins.

GoldFinger1969

@DisneyFan said:

@skier07 said:

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@skier07 said:

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@skier07 said:
I think prices are a little lower now. A gold guru has recently said the market although still strong is a little weaker today. Lots of reasons. The never ending dumpage of the Fairmont hoard together with a weaker stock market and a questionable economy.

Are you seeing talk that Fairmont had lots of common stuff behind-the-scenes that is slowly coming out month after month ? I thought most of the core pieces and most valuable ones were sold by now.

I thought I had pretty good information about the Fairmont hoard a few years ago but at this point I have absolutely no idea what the future holds. I was told that only the better coins were slabbed and being sold as Fairmont and that the more pedestrian coins were being sold by a bullion company with ties to SB.

Goes to what I said somewhere else in this or another thread....even if the coins are commons or only mildly-numismatic...you don't want to release the actual numbers in today's Information Age because everybody would know within hours or days. It could -- would ? -- depress the price.

At the time (1996), the size of the Wells Fargo Hoard was disclosed I believe (19,900 coins). But 1908 NM Saints were already pretty much a generic coin in most grades except MS-66 and above. So no harm, no foul which is why the total was disclosed.

Or was it ? Today, some numismatists think that the actual hoard was much larger (maybe with other denominations not revealed). Certainly, the full story has NOT been told.

+1

SB is the only party that benefits by not disclosing anything about the Fairmont hoard and coming up with stupid fictitious names for every new sale. The overall quality of the coins is outstanding and there are some truly rare pieces. But how would you feel if you bought a date with a low survivor population and five years later the number has increased 10%? Despite what I’ve been told by the experts that the market is big enough to absorb all the new coins it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that prices will drop.

Looks like it would be safe to collect half dimes, it's unlikely a bank would have put aside a hoard.

True, but there's always Gradeflation increasing the numbers.

GoldFinger1969

@pcgscacgold said:
There are a lot of high price/low pop CAC Eagles up for auction on GC (over the next two weeks). Prices there will give you an idea of how things are going. Many are ex-Fairmont coins.

Are they advertising them, or did you just scroll through upcoming auctions and see lots of Eagles ex-Fairmont ?

Catbert

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@pcgscacgold said:
There are a lot of high price/low pop CAC Eagles up for auction on GC (over the next two weeks). Prices there will give you an idea of how things are going. Many are ex-Fairmont coins.

Are they advertising them, or did you just scroll through upcoming auctions and see lots of Eagles ex-Fairmont ?

https://greatcollections.com/search.php?q=fairmont+collection&mode=product&sort=01

(edit to add - many selling this evening and over the next couple of weeks, as was said)

pcgscacgold

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@pcgscacgold said:
There are a lot of high price/low pop CAC Eagles up for auction on GC (over the next two weeks). Prices there will give you an idea of how things are going. Many are ex-Fairmont coins.

Are they advertising them, or did you just scroll through upcoming auctions and see lots of Eagles ex-Fairmont ?

I was checking out this weeks items and noticed a lot of coins were in Fairmont slabs. There are some collections up over the next two weeks. I didn’t recognize them. Others probably do.

A lot of high priced CAC gold. There are over 300 Eagles listed. A lot of Double Eagles as well.

GoldFinger1969

Seeing tons of eagles but not DEs.

ElmerFusterpuck

I just happened to look at the CAC price guide for a 1908-D no motto Saint in 64, which I was able to get for around $1900 in late 2018 for my type set, now up $4800, wha?????