@ElmerFusterpuck said:
I just happened to look at the CAC price guide for a 1908-D no motto Saint in 64, which I was able to get for around $1900 in late 2018 for my type set, now up $4800, wha?????
I was on the lookout for that coin for a while, they are really tough to find nice. CAC pop is extremely low compared to 07 or 08
I guess it makes some sense from the perspective of a comparison with the 1908 NM struck at Philadelphia. The Philadelphia piece has 1,652 in the grade of 64, and 1,012 pieces graded higher in the CAC population. The Denver piece has 82 in the grade of 64, and just 9 graded higher. So, in total, there are 2,664 from Philadelphia graded 64 or better, and just 91 from Denver graded 64 or better in the CAC population.
Looking back to 2018 thru early 2020, I think there was a nice lull in coin pricing and it was a good time to pick up nice coins for less than a few years back, including ones with CAC stickers. The coins below I managed to get for less than $1K back then, both with a green sticker and very attractive:
@Cougar1978 said:
On terms of thread title -yes.
At a show setup up last weekend there was talk of a market softening in that area by many players around me coupled with a downward correction.
Many in anticipation of a downturn backing off that material feeling premiums too high. I question if the coins themselves that PQ that they justify such huge premiums. Will they be crashing soon? I wonder why not already happened.
@Cougar1978 said:
CAC gold coins seeing very high demand. Takes some pocket play in that arena.
@Cougar1978 said:
Not from what I see on the bourse or from market price analysis. Prices appear to be going up.
If your going buy this material get access to CPG. What is your confidence level CAC gold will go higher? Is this an area you will increase your investment in?
Can you clarify what your position is, exactly? Do you think there’s going to be a correction for PQ material only? Are you inferring that in the event of a market downturn, the premium for “A” coins will just dry up, and all coins with the same numerical grade will trade at the same price?
I'm not sure he's an objective or experienced observer of that market.
@Cougar1978 said:
1908 NM $20 Gold for MS64 is $2540 vs $2800 MS64 CAC per CPG. There your paying $260 extra for the stickered piece.
Curious - Do you Try to find a non CAC 64 just as nice or better, pay less? Or do you just go ahead pay the extra CAC money for the CAC piece?
Without making generalizations, It would depend on the coin. The CPG prices you listed are very optimistic imo, the coin is dirt common in 64. I paid less than 2540 for a 65 (non-cac)
@ElmerFusterpuck said:
I just happened to look at the CAC price guide for a 1908-D no motto Saint in 64, which I was able to get for around $1900 in late 2018 for my type set, now up $4800, wha?????
$1,900 for CAC in 2018 ? That seems low. Nice job !!
If it's the exact same coin specs 2018 vs. Today, it does seem high for a non-top pop coin or condition grade. Maybe $4,800 is a bit high....I saw plenty of non-CAC's for about $3,500 in recent months. Big premium for CAC if that's the market but maybe it was an outlier as there's not many for sale for that coin/grade/CAC.
@Cougar1978 said:
1908 NM $20 Gold for MS64 is $2540 vs $2800 MS64 CAC per CPG. There your paying $260 extra for the stickered piece.
Curious - Do you Try to find a non CAC 64 just as nice or better, pay less? Or do you just go ahead pay the extra CAC money for the CAC piece?
Without making generalizations, It would depend on the coin. The CPG prices you listed are very optimistic imo, the coin is dirt common in 64. I paid less than 2540 for a 65 (non-cac)
In doing my homework / research and Calc markup factor for CPG vs CDN bid - CPG, based on CDN bid is a very fair, accurate market retail IMO. I have no trouble getting that at shows, online, or with private investor clients either. I might discount a bulk deal 5 pct. Beyond that those players can go find one.
I remember the old days lol low ballers try badger me wanting buy at CDN bid “send them a check” I would tell them.
@Cougar1978 said:
1908 NM $20 Gold for MS64 is $2540 vs $2800 MS64 CAC per CPG. There your paying $260 extra for the stickered piece.
Curious - Do you Try to find a non CAC 64 just as nice or better, pay less? Or do you just go ahead pay the extra CAC money for the CAC piece?
The CAC premium will be impacted obviously by the price for the next highest grade. When dealing with 1908 No MOttos, there are so many that not until you get to the MS-66 or 67 grades do you see a big $$$ jump.
@pcgscacgold said:
I like my 66+CAC NM 1908 Saint. For me it was worth the premium.
Beautiful coin...trying to save up for an MS-66 NM 1908 but as I am out of FT work right now it makes it tougher.
Take your time looking. There are really nice looking ones out there. Patience is the key. They also come around now and then so you have time to build up funds. I sold off a bunch of replaceable items and moved into a few coins like this.
@ms71 said:
In the last couple weeks, I've noticed several instances of prices on PCGS CAC gold coins that were less than I would have expected given the frenetic market over the past year. Just this morning I looked at Legend's inventory and spotted two that surprised me. First one is a 1904 $20 Liberty in PCGS 64+ CAC at $2,950. Second is a 1932 $10 Indian in PCGS 65 CAC at $5,850. Both appear to be very nice coins and below the prices I've seen on similar examples over the past months. And I've also noticed a fair number of other nice four-figure CAC gold coins sitting longer in various inventories without getting immediately marked "SOLD". Does this indicate anything of a trend in the market? (notes: I'm not speaking about the "high-end" five and six figure coins, and I have no connection whatsoever with Legend or any other dealer).
@Cougar1978 said:
What they offering off bourse on them. This one guy not set up not far from me getting out bluesheet on anything offered.
Gold CACs typically trade for at least strong money for the next grade up. Many times, it’s much, much more. We’ve had this discussion in another thread, but you were compelled to refute that logic.
That’s great if the owners can get next grade up or more on gold sticker sometimes. But that can be emotional bid war (gold sticker) between 2 wealthy people (like gourmet burger to average man) not logic lol. Not refuting they get bid up. If your so sure it’s some special line item market price take it up with the CDN.
What I think is funny is say somebody trashing me me bc I don’t pay above grade on holder. What a joke. Go buy some of those and pay above grade on holder lol. Or go Sell them to him if he will pay u that money. No I don’t pay above grade on holder. That’s my call, my choice. If you think coin a higher grade get it in holder that says so. Or shop it around bourse. Nothing personal it’s just business.
@Cougar1978 said:
What they offering off bourse on them. This one guy not set up not far from me getting out bluesheet on anything offered.
Gold CACs typically trade for at least strong money for the next grade up. Many times, it’s much, much more. We’ve had this discussion in another thread, but you were compelled to refute that logic.
That’s great if the owners can get next grade up or more on gold sticker sometimes. But that can be emotional bid war (gold sticker) between 2 wealthy people (like gourmet burger to average man) not logic lol. Not refuting they get bid up. If your so sure it’s some special line item market price take it up with the CDN.
What I think is funny is say somebody trashing me me bc I don’t pay above grade on holder. What a joke. Go buy some of those and pay above grade on holder lol. Or go Sell them to him if he will pay u that money. No I don’t pay above grade on holder. That’s my call, my choice. If you think coin a higher grade get it in holder that says so. Or shop it around bourse. Nothing personal it’s just business.
Calm down, I said nothing to "trash you". I answered your question (which has now been edited to different comment completely) asking "What they offering off bourse on them?". It's not irrational exuberance ie: "emotional bid war between two wealthy people", there are a number of savvy dealers on the bourse I could walk up to and sell a 63 gold CAC for minimum strong 64 money all day, every day. If you choose to prioritize the grade on the holder rather than the actual coin, you're well within your rights to do so.
@Cougar1978 said:
What they offering off bourse on them. This one guy not set up not far from me getting out bluesheet on anything offered.
Gold CACs typically trade for at least strong money for the next grade up. Many times, it’s much, much more. We’ve had this discussion in another thread, but you were compelled to refute that logic.
This makes absolutely zero sense to me.
What doesn't make sense to you, and cougar who agreed with you? JA and CAC's opinion is highly valued in the marketplace. Gold stickers are applied very sparingly to coins they would sticker if they were housed in the next grade up. Todays MS64 is the MS63 of yesteryear, and you will most often find gold stickers on old holder coins that were never upgraded out of their original holders from the early days of TPG's. If you choose not to buy them, that's fine, but it that hard to fathom that a coin can be under graded by a full point in its current holder, and great number of collectors are willing to treat it as such?
To try and answer the original question... no I do not see any real softening in prices. I regularly get outbid on items that end up selling for pretty strong hammer prices. Try and go though the PCGS recent auction price lists and play the "CAC or NO CAC" game. I would bet based on the final hammer price you will be right far more than wrong as to whether the coin has a sticker or not.
@mark_dak said:
To try and answer the original question... no I do not see any real softening in prices. I regularly get outbid on items that end up selling for pretty strong hammer prices. Try and go though the PCGS recent auction price lists and play the "CAC or NO CAC" game. I would bet based on the final hammer price you will be right far more than wrong as to whether the coin has a sticker or not.
Mark
Sometimes I see a coin that underperforms and begin to think the markets softening, then reality snaps back in the next time I try to win something. I was bidding on two coins in the legend auction, and I thought I had nuke bids in that put me well above legends original estimate. I was blown away on both of them, one coin will sell 30% higher than it did in auction just 6 months ago.
@pcgscacgold said:
I like my 66+CAC NM 1908 Saint. For me it was worth the premium.
Beautiful coin...trying to save up for an MS-66 NM 1908 but as I am out of FT work right now it makes it tougher.
Take your time looking. There are really nice looking ones out there. Patience is the key. They also come around now and then so you have time to build up funds. I sold off a bunch of replaceable items and moved into a few coins like this.
Agreed.....MS-66's are plentiful, you really have to go up to MS-67 to find coins where patience is really required. But I don't think I can stretch for that grade, even though I would like to have at least 1 MS-67 Saint, and that's the most affordable one.
If anybody loudly proclaims "I don't pay above grade" I'll quickly move on to another table to sell. It's happened to me occasionally at shows where I'm looking to sell a few items, with some dealers barely glancing at the coin. Yeah, it's "your business" - so I'll take mine elsewhere. Simple as that.
I think prices are staying fairly high on everything. Can't win much on any of the auction sites for what I am willing to pay. Of course maybe the problem is I am too tight and cheap.
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@mark_dak said:
To try and answer the original question... no I do not see any real softening in prices. I regularly get outbid on items that end up selling for pretty strong hammer prices. Try and go though the PCGS recent auction price lists and play the "CAC or NO CAC" game. I would bet based on the final hammer price you will be right far more than wrong as to whether the coin has a sticker or not.
Mark
I should have been clearer in my original post. I wasn't commenting on the auction market, I've never played there. My comments were based on close observation of offerings on the websites of several well-known reputable "big" dealers over the past year or more. Most nice four and low five-figure gold coins with CAC were snapped up more quickly in past months than recently. The difference is notable, and certainly could be due to any number of factors.
@Cougar1978 said:
What they offering off bourse on them. This one guy not set up not far from me getting out bluesheet on anything offered.
Gold CACs typically trade for at least strong money for the next grade up. Many times, it’s much, much more. We’ve had this discussion in another thread, but you were compelled to refute that logic.
This makes absolutely zero sense to me.
It might make "absolutely zero sense" to you, but it's accurate. Many buyers will pay a price commensurate with the quality and appeal of the coin. And most CAC gold-sticker coins are, in the opinion of many, conservatively graded.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@Cougar1978 said:
What they offering off bourse on them. This one guy not set up not far from me getting out bluesheet on anything offered.
Gold CACs typically trade for at least strong money for the next grade up. Many times, it’s much, much more. We’ve had this discussion in another thread, but you were compelled to refute that logic.
This makes absolutely zero sense to me.
It might make "absolutely zero sense" to you, but it's accurate. Many buyers will pay a price commensurate with the quality and appeal of the coin. And most CAC gold-sticker coins are, in the opinion of many, conservatively graded.
@MFeld You are 100% correct in your post. I hope you had a mic to drop and left the room after that comment.
@Cougar1978 said:
What they offering off bourse on them. This one guy not set up not far from me getting out bluesheet on anything offered.
Gold CACs typically trade for at least strong money for the next grade up. Many times, it’s much, much more. We’ve had this discussion in another thread, but you were compelled to refute that logic.
This makes absolutely zero sense to me.
I don't believe they would NORMALLY ever trade for MORE unless there was a unique anomaly (see below). Depending on how much the jump is -- let's say, from MS-66 to MS-67 -- the CAC premium will close the GAP between them. I can tell you that for a 1924 Saint an MS-66 trading at about $3,000 (estimated) and let's say that the MS-67 trades at about $10,000 (estimated)....the MS-66 CAC is probably going to trade for anywhere from $6-$7K.
Now...sometimes you have weird situations with ultra-low populations and someone wants a CAC coin and is even willing to have it re-graded LOWER. That happened a few years ago with one of the 1927-D Saints; it was graded MS-66 I believe and couldn't CAC at that grade but at MS-65+ it did get a CAC.
@ElmerFusterpuck said:
If anybody loudly proclaims "I don't pay above grade" I'll quickly move on to another table to sell. It's happened to me occasionally at shows where I'm looking to sell a few items, with some dealers barely glancing at the coin. Yeah, it's "your business" - so I'll take mine elsewhere. Simple as that.
If you wanted to BUY from them and gold or numismatic gold had risen 20% since the last published prices, I'll bet they wouldn't tell you they don't SELL above the grade !!
I would never solicit (ethical reasons) my customers or clients to pay above the TPG grade on the holder. If I thought a 65 coin was 66 or higher for whatever reason would send in to our hosts and get that grade. It would make that or not. My risk.
So somebody offering me a gold stickered coin at higher grade money they are expecting me take the risk that it won’t upgrade. At that point it’s time for them to leave. Sorry not a player there. Not a fan of conjecture. And they can go find somebody who will. I am sure there are people who would pay above the TPG grade on those and it’s their money, risk. Never been offered any CAC gold stickered material but if your into them there are some eBay sellers who will sell u some. Take a look.
@Cougar1978 said:
What they offering off bourse on them. This one guy not set up not far from me getting out bluesheet on anything offered.
Gold CACs typically trade for at least strong money for the next grade up. Many times, it’s much, much more. We’ve had this discussion in another thread, but you were compelled to refute that logic.
This makes absolutely zero sense to me.
I can tell you that for a 1924 Saint an MS-66 trading at about $3,000 (estimated) and let's say that the MS-67 trades at about $10,000 (estimated)....the MS-66 CAC is probably going to trade for anywhere from $6-$7K.
The comment you replied to was in reference to Gold CAC pricing, not green. A (green) CAC common 66 Saint will probably trade around in the 5k-7k Realm , as you have said. A non CAC 67 can probably be had in the 12-15k range, and recent sales of CAC 67 blows the price guide away with numbers closer to 40k. If there were a 66 Gold CAC, that JA indicates he would sticker as a 67, I would bet everything I own that It would sell for at least as much as a CAC 67, if not more. Being the only Gold CAC 66 saint, I wouldn't even be surprised if someone would pay 60k+ for it.
Thanks / Well see your point and perhaps somebody may want jump on such a deal especially if have dealt a lot w JA and have have a feel for his grading.
@Cougar1978 said:
What they offering off bourse on them. This one guy not set up not far from me getting out bluesheet on anything offered.
Gold CACs typically trade for at least strong money for the next grade up. Many times, it’s much, much more. We’ve had this discussion in another thread, but you were compelled to refute that logic.
This makes absolutely zero sense to me.
I don't believe they would NORMALLY ever trade for MORE unless there was a unique anomaly (see below). Depending on how much the jump is -- let's say, from MS-66 to MS-67 -- the CAC premium will close the GAP between them. I can tell you that for a 1924 Saint an MS-66 trading at about $3,000 (estimated) and let's say that the MS-67 trades at about $10,000 (estimated)....the MS-66 CAC is probably going to trade for anywhere from $6-$7K.
Now...sometimes you have weird situations with ultra-low populations and someone wants a CAC coin and is even willing to have it re-graded LOWER. That happened a few years ago with one of the 1927-D Saints; it was graded MS-66 I believe and couldn't CAC at that grade but at MS-65+ it did get a CAC.
Sorry, but it doesn't matter what you believe - what counts is what actually occurs. And it's not particularly unusual for gold-sticker CAC coins to trade at levels above the value for (just) one grade higher.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@Cougar1978 said:
What they offering off bourse on them. This one guy not set up not far from me getting out bluesheet on anything offered.
Gold CACs typically trade for at least strong money for the next grade up. Many times, it’s much, much more. We’ve had this discussion in another thread, but you were compelled to refute that logic.
This makes absolutely zero sense to me.
It might make "absolutely zero sense" to you, but it's accurate. Many buyers will pay a price commensurate with the quality and appeal of the coin. And most CAC gold-sticker coins are, in the opinion of many, conservatively graded.
If I’m presented with the choice of buying a gold beaned MS64 for $1,000 or a green beaned MS65 at $900, then it’s more likely that I’m buying the green beaned MS65. That is what I was responding to. It makes no sense to me to pay more for the lower graded gold beaned coin. I fully understand that there are some consumers in the marketplace that will pay more for a lower grades gold beaned coin than they will for a higher grades green beaned coin, but I’m not one of them unless it is a very exceptional coin. YMMV.
@Cougar1978 said:
What they offering off bourse on them. This one guy not set up not far from me getting out bluesheet on anything offered.
Gold CACs typically trade for at least strong money for the next grade up. Many times, it’s much, much more. We’ve had this discussion in another thread, but you were compelled to refute that logic.
This makes absolutely zero sense to me.
It might make "absolutely zero sense" to you, but it's accurate. Many buyers will pay a price commensurate with the quality and appeal of the coin. And most CAC gold-sticker coins are, in the opinion of many, conservatively graded.
If I’m presented with the choice of buying a gold beaned MS64 for $1,000 or a green beaned MS65 at $900, then it’s more likely that I’m buying the green beaned MS65. That is what I was responding to. It makes no sense to me to pay more for the lower graded gold beaned coin. I fully understand that there are some consumers in the marketplace that will pay more for a lower grades gold beaned coin than they will for a higher grades green beaned coin, but I’m not one of them unless it is a very exceptional coin. YMMV.
Thank you for the clarification - much appreciated.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@coinkat said:
The 1904 $20 Lib and the 1932 $10 Indian both have a high rate of survival in 64. While CAC has its importance, these two dates are simply not a bellweather to establish much of anything.
From what I have seen, there might be more 1932 $10 gold coins with the “MS-64” grade on them than pieces which really are MS-64s.
@ms71 said:
Most nice four and low five-figure gold coins with CAC were snapped up more quickly in past months than recently. >The difference is notable, and certainly could be due to any number of factors.
If we assume that The New Rich can have a bigger impact on high-grade coins than a bunch of newcomers buying more common stuff with thousands or tens of thousands available, it makes sense that price inflation would be most pronounced on higher-end coins.
Trophy assets -- coins, baseball cards, art, real estate, beachfront property, sports teams -- are all somewhat limited yet the number of potential bidders and the $$$ available to bid have gone up at a faster rate than overall income or GDP.
There aren't many more MS-67 gold coins today vs. 20 or 30 or 40 years ago, CAC or non-CAC...but there are many more people who can afford them.
Throw in the tens of trillions$$$ that will change hands in the U.S. in the next 20-30 years from estates and inheritances and you have lots more disposable financial firepower available to move into collectibles. Tons more demand....relatively inelastic supply.
A prescription for much higher prices and lots more participants. That FUN 2020 auction I attended for the 1927-D Saint had about 40 in attendance and maybe 3 or 4 bidders. In 20 years, you could have a dozen bidders, maybe more, and maybe 75-100 watching the activity.
Too many people are applying their behavior/views to three market. People should study the market and see it for what it is. You are free to do whatever you wish but don't presume that the market should behave that way.
We see this all the time when people talk about coins being "overpriced ". There's no such thing in a large, efficient market. What they mean 99% of the time is that it is more than they would pay. That is a very different thing.
We see this all the time when people talk about coins being "overpriced ". There's no such thing in a large, efficient market. What they mean 99% of the time is that it is more than they would pay.
I'm confused. Are you agreeing, "There's no such thing in a large, efficient market.
@MFeld said:
Sorry, but it doesn't matter what you believe - what counts is what actually occurs. And it's not particularly unusual for gold-sticker CAC coins to trade at levels above the value for (just) one grade higher.
Agreed Mark...I thought the post in question was talking about a Green CAC sticker. My mistake if everyone was referencing Gold CAC.
@jmlanzaf said:
Too many people are applying their behavior/views to three market. People should study the market and see it for what it is. You are free to do whatever you wish but don't presume that the market should behave that way.
We see this all the time when people talk about coins being "overpriced ". There's no such thing in a large, efficient market. What they mean 99% of the time is that it is more than they would pay. That is a very different thing.
No disagreement....but one thing I think we can agree on is that whenever the underlying PM makes a run -- let's say gold -- that gold coins with some numismatic value tend to really run, "jump the gun" so to speak.
Every $100-$200 run is the one that is going to take gold to $2,500 or even $3,000 an ounce. Then everything priced off gold tends to see accelerated price hikes for months even if nothing materializes but another false start.
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I was on the lookout for that coin for a while, they are really tough to find nice. CAC pop is extremely low compared to 07 or 08
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I guess it makes some sense from the perspective of a comparison with the 1908 NM struck at Philadelphia. The Philadelphia piece has 1,652 in the grade of 64, and 1,012 pieces graded higher in the CAC population. The Denver piece has 82 in the grade of 64, and just 9 graded higher. So, in total, there are 2,664 from Philadelphia graded 64 or better, and just 91 from Denver graded 64 or better in the CAC population.
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Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
Looking back to 2018 thru early 2020, I think there was a nice lull in coin pricing and it was a good time to pick up nice coins for less than a few years back, including ones with CAC stickers. The coins below I managed to get for less than $1K back then, both with a green sticker and very attractive:
1909-S VDB PCGS AU-58
1856 $3 PCGS AU-58
Good timing and a bit of luck didn't hurt either.
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1908 NM $20 Gold for MS64 is $2540 vs $2800 MS64 CAC per CPG. There your paying $260 extra for the stickered piece.
Curious - Do you Try to find a non CAC 64 just as nice or better, pay less? Or do you just go ahead pay the extra CAC money for the CAC piece?
If you are adept at grading, the former, otherwise, you acknowledge that John is better at the game than me and just pay up.
I'm not sure he's an objective or experienced observer of that market.
Without making generalizations, It would depend on the coin. The CPG prices you listed are very optimistic imo, the coin is dirt common in 64. I paid less than 2540 for a 65 (non-cac)
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I bought mine raw in 1986 (didn't know whether it was AU or BU), had it graded PCGS MS64 in 2002 and for $16 plus postage it's now CAC.
$1,900 for CAC in 2018 ? That seems low. Nice job !!
If it's the exact same coin specs 2018 vs. Today, it does seem high for a non-top pop coin or condition grade. Maybe $4,800 is a bit high....I saw plenty of non-CAC's for about $3,500 in recent months. Big premium for CAC if that's the market but maybe it was an outlier as there's not many for sale for that coin/grade/CAC.
The CPG tends to be "full retail".
In doing my homework / research and Calc markup factor for CPG vs CDN bid - CPG, based on CDN bid is a very fair, accurate market retail IMO. I have no trouble getting that at shows, online, or with private investor clients either. I might discount a bulk deal 5 pct. Beyond that those players can go find one.
I remember the old days lol low ballers try badger me wanting buy at CDN bid “send them a check” I would tell them.
The CAC premium will be impacted obviously by the price for the next highest grade. When dealing with 1908 No MOttos, there are so many that not until you get to the MS-66 or 67 grades do you see a big $$$ jump.
Yes big jump in premium in higher grades.
I like my 66+CAC NM 1908 Saint. For me it was worth the premium.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Beautiful coin...trying to save up for an MS-66 NM 1908 but as I am out of FT work right now it makes it tougher.
Take your time looking. There are really nice looking ones out there. Patience is the key. They also come around now and then so you have time to build up funds. I sold off a bunch of replaceable items and moved into a few coins like this.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
No an 1868 MS63 $3 as a Gold CAC just sold for $17K at hamme $20k with the vig. https://coins.ha.com/itm/three-dollar-gold-pieces/1868-3-ms63-pcgs-gold-cac-a-moderate-mintage-of-4-875-pieces-and-a-high-survival-rate-makes-the-1868-three-dollar-gold-p/a/60307-52455.s?ic2=mybidspage-lotlinks-12202013&tab=MyBids-101116
I saw some really high bids on CAC coins on eBay recently. Gaining strength? When CAC TPG comes out how will this affect the USGTC market?
Gold CACs typically trade for at least strong money for the next grade up. Many times, it’s much, much more. We’ve had this discussion in another thread, but you were compelled to refute that logic.
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Logic? Your kidding.
That’s great if the owners can get next grade up or more on gold sticker sometimes. But that can be emotional bid war (gold sticker) between 2 wealthy people (like gourmet burger to average man) not logic lol. Not refuting they get bid up. If your so sure it’s some special line item market price take it up with the CDN.
What I think is funny is say somebody trashing me me bc I don’t pay above grade on holder. What a joke. Go buy some of those and pay above grade on holder lol. Or go Sell them to him if he will pay u that money. No I don’t pay above grade on holder. That’s my call, my choice. If you think coin a higher grade get it in holder that says so. Or shop it around bourse. Nothing personal it’s just business.
This makes absolutely zero sense to me.
Calm down, I said nothing to "trash you". I answered your question (which has now been edited to different comment completely) asking "What they offering off bourse on them?". It's not irrational exuberance ie: "emotional bid war between two wealthy people", there are a number of savvy dealers on the bourse I could walk up to and sell a 63 gold CAC for minimum strong 64 money all day, every day. If you choose to prioritize the grade on the holder rather than the actual coin, you're well within your rights to do so.
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What doesn't make sense to you, and cougar who agreed with you? JA and CAC's opinion is highly valued in the marketplace. Gold stickers are applied very sparingly to coins they would sticker if they were housed in the next grade up. Todays MS64 is the MS63 of yesteryear, and you will most often find gold stickers on old holder coins that were never upgraded out of their original holders from the early days of TPG's. If you choose not to buy them, that's fine, but it that hard to fathom that a coin can be under graded by a full point in its current holder, and great number of collectors are willing to treat it as such?
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To try and answer the original question... no I do not see any real softening in prices. I regularly get outbid on items that end up selling for pretty strong hammer prices. Try and go though the PCGS recent auction price lists and play the "CAC or NO CAC" game. I would bet based on the final hammer price you will be right far more than wrong as to whether the coin has a sticker or not.
Mark
Sometimes I see a coin that underperforms and begin to think the markets softening, then reality snaps back in the next time I try to win something. I was bidding on two coins in the legend auction, and I thought I had nuke bids in that put me well above legends original estimate. I was blown away on both of them, one coin will sell 30% higher than it did in auction just 6 months ago.
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Agreed.....MS-66's are plentiful, you really have to go up to MS-67 to find coins where patience is really required. But I don't think I can stretch for that grade, even though I would like to have at least 1 MS-67 Saint, and that's the most affordable one.
If anybody loudly proclaims "I don't pay above grade" I'll quickly move on to another table to sell. It's happened to me occasionally at shows where I'm looking to sell a few items, with some dealers barely glancing at the coin. Yeah, it's "your business" - so I'll take mine elsewhere. Simple as that.
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I think prices are staying fairly high on everything. Can't win much on any of the auction sites for what I am willing to pay. Of course maybe the problem is I am too tight and cheap.
I should have been clearer in my original post. I wasn't commenting on the auction market, I've never played there. My comments were based on close observation of offerings on the websites of several well-known reputable "big" dealers over the past year or more. Most nice four and low five-figure gold coins with CAC were snapped up more quickly in past months than recently. The difference is notable, and certainly could be due to any number of factors.
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It might make "absolutely zero sense" to you, but it's accurate. Many buyers will pay a price commensurate with the quality and appeal of the coin. And most CAC gold-sticker coins are, in the opinion of many, conservatively graded.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@MFeld You are 100% correct in your post. I hope you had a mic to drop and left the room after that comment.
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I don't believe they would NORMALLY ever trade for MORE unless there was a unique anomaly (see below). Depending on how much the jump is -- let's say, from MS-66 to MS-67 -- the CAC premium will close the GAP between them. I can tell you that for a 1924 Saint an MS-66 trading at about $3,000 (estimated) and let's say that the MS-67 trades at about $10,000 (estimated)....the MS-66 CAC is probably going to trade for anywhere from $6-$7K.
Now...sometimes you have weird situations with ultra-low populations and someone wants a CAC coin and is even willing to have it re-graded LOWER. That happened a few years ago with one of the 1927-D Saints; it was graded MS-66 I believe and couldn't CAC at that grade but at MS-65+ it did get a CAC.
If you wanted to BUY from them and gold or numismatic gold had risen 20% since the last published prices, I'll bet they wouldn't tell you they don't SELL above the grade !!
I would never solicit (ethical reasons) my customers or clients to pay above the TPG grade on the holder. If I thought a 65 coin was 66 or higher for whatever reason would send in to our hosts and get that grade. It would make that or not. My risk.
So somebody offering me a gold stickered coin at higher grade money they are expecting me take the risk that it won’t upgrade. At that point it’s time for them to leave. Sorry not a player there. Not a fan of conjecture. And they can go find somebody who will. I am sure there are people who would pay above the TPG grade on those and it’s their money, risk. Never been offered any CAC gold stickered material but if your into them there are some eBay sellers who will sell u some. Take a look.
The comment you replied to was in reference to Gold CAC pricing, not green. A (green) CAC common 66 Saint will probably trade around in the 5k-7k Realm , as you have said. A non CAC 67 can probably be had in the 12-15k range, and recent sales of CAC 67 blows the price guide away with numbers closer to 40k. If there were a 66 Gold CAC, that JA indicates he would sticker as a 67, I would bet everything I own that It would sell for at least as much as a CAC 67, if not more. Being the only Gold CAC 66 saint, I wouldn't even be surprised if someone would pay 60k+ for it.
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Thanks / Well see your point and perhaps somebody may want jump on such a deal especially if have dealt a lot w JA and have have a feel for his grading.
Sorry, but it doesn't matter what you believe - what counts is what actually occurs. And it's not particularly unusual for gold-sticker CAC coins to trade at levels above the value for (just) one grade higher.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
If I’m presented with the choice of buying a gold beaned MS64 for $1,000 or a green beaned MS65 at $900, then it’s more likely that I’m buying the green beaned MS65. That is what I was responding to. It makes no sense to me to pay more for the lower graded gold beaned coin. I fully understand that there are some consumers in the marketplace that will pay more for a lower grades gold beaned coin than they will for a higher grades green beaned coin, but I’m not one of them unless it is a very exceptional coin. YMMV.
Thank you for the clarification - much appreciated.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I wouldn’t be surprised given the series.
Stack's Bowers just announced Spring 2023 Auction - Session 5 - The Fairmont Collection - CAG Set - Lots 5001-5385
If we assume that The New Rich can have a bigger impact on high-grade coins than a bunch of newcomers buying more common stuff with thousands or tens of thousands available, it makes sense that price inflation would be most pronounced on higher-end coins.
Trophy assets -- coins, baseball cards, art, real estate, beachfront property, sports teams -- are all somewhat limited yet the number of potential bidders and the $$$ available to bid have gone up at a faster rate than overall income or GDP.
There aren't many more MS-67 gold coins today vs. 20 or 30 or 40 years ago, CAC or non-CAC...but there are many more people who can afford them.
Throw in the tens of trillions$$$ that will change hands in the U.S. in the next 20-30 years from estates and inheritances and you have lots more disposable financial firepower available to move into collectibles. Tons more demand....relatively inelastic supply.
A prescription for much higher prices and lots more participants. That FUN 2020 auction I attended for the 1927-D Saint had about 40 in attendance and maybe 3 or 4 bidders. In 20 years, you could have a dozen bidders, maybe more, and maybe 75-100 watching the activity.
Sort of like George Costanza when he went out on a high note, huh ?
Too many people are applying their behavior/views to three market. People should study the market and see it for what it is. You are free to do whatever you wish but don't presume that the market should behave that way.
We see this all the time when people talk about coins being "overpriced ". There's no such thing in a large, efficient market. What they mean 99% of the time is that it is more than they would pay. That is a very different thing.
I'm confused. Are you agreeing, "There's no such thing in a large, efficient market.
Agreed Mark...I thought the post in question was talking about a Green CAC sticker. My mistake if everyone was referencing Gold CAC.
No disagreement....but one thing I think we can agree on is that whenever the underlying PM makes a run -- let's say gold -- that gold coins with some numismatic value tend to really run, "jump the gun" so to speak.
Every $100-$200 run is the one that is going to take gold to $2,500 or even $3,000 an ounce.
Then everything priced off gold tends to see accelerated price hikes for months even if nothing materializes but another false start.