@cohodk said:
Diesel inventories for this time of year are now higher than in 2018 (when some think times were much better).
Natural gas inventories in Europe are at 83% of capacity--higher than last year-- and represent 4 years of demand.
Now, there's something I like to see! A man who does his homework and He's spot on, good work Cohodk. I mean Tucker Carlson did his homework I wouldn't be hearing the "end is near" because we have 25 days of reserves and have to correct the nonsense about we only have 25 days left. Jeez.
Oh yeah, the USD is the WORLDS reserve currency, the petro dollar, the money YOU need "me too" We exported more in the third quarter of 2022 than we imported, the Yuan is a joke of a manipulated, lying waste of time. The USA is the greatest thing since sliced bread and I get to say it because I live and love the USA
PS all you Ebay worried folk? You know the $600 scare? Not happening! A non issue as a matter of fact Congress is arguing over a reporting level now. $20k or $5k who knows. READ AGAIN "WHO KNOWS" , BUT NOT NOW.
You want real change; Join the Convention of States in your State today.
"However, this is just one side of the story. Filling underground gas storage reservoirs is one thing. Buying gas is another, and it’s significantly more costly than it used to be. It is up to 10 times more expensive than in previous seasons."
And this, FishHead, is why natural gas is a fitting topic of any discussion on world wide inflation. A shortage of consumer money to buy gas needed for home heat equates to a gas shortage to those who cannot afford it.
@Soldi said:
Now, if you want real change join "The Convention of States" in your State. ARTICLE 5 OF THE CONSTITUTION. Amend the overreaching Powers,call for Fiscal responsibility, States Rights respected.
According to Williams, who is paid to get it right, inflation for 2022 was 16%.
Energy prices are softening currently which will have a positive effect on inflation next two quarters. It's not going away soon however. One of the ways to make it go away is to jump the fed rate dramatically and lower energy prices significantly both of which are currently unacceptable politically.
I don't need to buy a house or a truck so price movement with those doesn't touch me. But I observe people complaining about food prices and shrinkage. That effects people every week. How long til the pitchforks come out?
HEY SPARKY, YOU ONLY QUOTE OUT OF CONTEXT SO PLEASE PASS ME BY. TYIA. LOVE🥰
You assume that foreigners still and will always want dollars. "Want" is rapidly declining. In another year or two this bunker theory will also become reality.
@Soldi said:
The Feds going to cut. Rates are going lower.
The whole world 🌎 can't be wrong, lest the Fed thinks so.
All the Blue chips are cutting loose aka laying off employees.
No soft , just a big pivot.
When you save rates are going lower, do you mean the Fed Funds Rate, or longer term 5 or 10 year treasuries?
ONLY rate FED directly controls is the fed funds rate - the overnight rate banks charge each other for very short term loans. They know that they can use this to control the fear/hope that unfittingly determines market rates.
@Soldi said:
The Feds going to cut. Rates are going lower.
The whole world 🌎 can't be wrong, lest the Fed thinks so.
All the Blue chips are cutting loose aka laying off employees.
No soft , just a big pivot.
When you save rates are going lower, do you mean the Fed Funds Rate, or longer term 5 or 10 year treasuries?
ONLY rate FED directly controls is the fed funds rate - the overnight rate banks charge each other for very short term loans. They know that they can use this to control the fear/hope that unfittingly determines market rates.
That doesn't answer the question I posed to Soldi.
I was wondering if anyone has noticed that rates on 5 to 10 treasuries are already down almost 100 bps over the last few months which is economically stimulative.
Fed Funds. The long bonds tresuries etc have an inherent inverted yield curve. I believe what you and i see is due to the fed tighting, nobody seems to want to chance anything over a year.
My whole point of this thread is whether or not the fed tightens any further and I'm out on a limb speculating they will loosen.
I expect 90% chance of a 25-point increase Feb 1st, but still a 10% chance they stay at 50 to show they are serious about getting core inflation back to 2%. Tech job losses are being highlighted, but service sector jobs are still increasing and wages there are going up.
Chipotle said Thursday it’s looking to hire 15,000 people in North America to ensure its stores are staffed up ahead of its busy spring season. Other chains are also looking for workers: Taco Bell has more than 25,000 listings for crew members posted on its website, while Starbucks has posted more than 10,000 listings for baristas.
U.S. restaurants have added jobs for 24 consecutive months since the height of the pandemic, according to the National Restaurant Association. But restaurant employment is still 3.6% lower than before the pandemic, or the equivalent of 450,000 jobs.
The LOL Inflation Reduction Act will toss billions towards new "green" American manufacturing jobs. There is way too much fiscal spending out there to stop inflation at this point for the Fed to ease.
Highly touted declines in diesel and gasoline prices appear to have been transitory
U.S. gasoline prices have shot up an unusually strong 9.2% in January to average about $3.50 a gallon as of Thursday, which could throw a wrench in the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
“Roughly one month out of that [Dec.] low, national average gas prices have risen 12.9% for the sharpest one-month increase since last June. Whereas prices have historically risen an average of less than 1%” year-to-date through Jan. 26, “this year the increase has been 9.16%.”
@Soldi said:
![](https://us.v-> @Soldi said:
My whole point of this thread is whether or not the fed tightens any further and I'm out on a limb speculating they will loosen.
Not a chance, that limb that you are on broke a long time ago. Quarter Point increase next week.
Don't get too hung up on the Fed ending rate hikes as a pivot point. The markets are trapped into that kind of thinking. Wall Street will choke on 4 or 5% funds rate. The Fed won't have enough trailing data it relies on to start lowering rates in the first half of this year. When the quarter point cuts do start it may be too late to prevent inevitable recession and a serious hit to stock markets. Right now earnings multiples are climbing at a faster rate than the markets, and are around 50% higher than historical averages. Price increases may look like they are moderating right now, but consider all the pressure that wage hikes may have in a few months. Not to mention $90B more in SS income this year. These increases are recent, and won't manifest themselves into the CPI statistics for a few months.
We need a significant recession in order to straighten out the mess this and the previous administrations has gotten us into. People need to stop expecting handouts and get back to work. There are jobs out there even in a recession.
That guy said; 50 basis points IS a pivot. Okay 25 or zero is IS ?
IS WHAT?? Loosening
Slowing the rate or percentage of increase is not a pivot if the overall rate is still increasing. They are still tightening. Lowering the overall rate would be a pivot. Not reducing the percentage that they are increasing. If the Fed went to a zero point increase - then it may be a pivot or merely a pause in tightening. It depends on what direction they move next. So we are talking about two different definitions of what a pivot means.
I do understand your reasoning, however and could argue that position as well - even if I don’t believe it.
@blitzdude said:
For a buyer of paper gutter yes, physical not so much. LULZ!
Your precious SLV took quite a dive today.
Silver Eagles not so much.
NOT EVEN A CHINESE SPY BALLOON CAN RAISE THE PRICE OF SLV AND GLD right now, buy an hold
Yes, Yes, Yes Indeed now I have the chance to buy more, buy more, more and dollar cost average down. Without inflation the whole, as in all, all the world debt fueling and economy will fail. Don't freak out just buy more and enjoy the currency
US Debt an optimistic "rose outlook" will be $42,000,000,000,000 as in 42 Trillion within 10 years. Buy Copper, Rhodium, Platinum, Gold and Silver.
PS Nothing is precious to me.
Play the game until it cannot be played any longer. Reap the Currency Spend it get the Velocity UP, UP I say!
There was a time when 5% UI was the benchmark for inflation at below 5% and leaning toward recession when above 5%
"Politically motivated intellectual dishonesty" Meaning the numbers were massaged and now, ??? 517,000 jobs added???
Okay a strong dollar keeps the world paying more, but honestly: I think metals should have responded to the massaged numbers below 5% aka 3.4% UI Doing what holding down 3 fast food jobs? by who? 20 to 40 year old people full of energy and having little future? I know this; IDK.
None of the above is a reflection on the fine numismatists I see here.
Recent inflation numbers revised UPWARD as per the year-end seasonal adjustments. When I worked as an economist, you ALWAYS waited to see if changes altered the trajectory. I wonder how many will make the adjustment before Tuesday's CPI release,
White House actually reached out to Steven Van Metre on YouTube to defend jobs reporting BLS is rechecking and checking again before it releases CPI . Dec . Nov. inflation numbers being vetted , adjusted , scrutinized. The Fed is considering, conjecture so far, a rate cut. Apparently savings depletion and increased credit card use is lagging the highest levels of compilation. Best to Google Van Metre on YouTube watch entire video (15min)
Inflation is accelerating even without a cut the rate is unacceptable. All low hanging fruit has been harvested by the Fed. get ready for a metals explosion.
Comments
Now, there's something I like to see! A man who does his homework and He's spot on, good work Cohodk. I mean Tucker Carlson did his homework I wouldn't be hearing the "end is near" because we have 25 days of reserves and have to correct the nonsense about we only have 25 days left. Jeez.
Oh yeah, the USD is the WORLDS reserve currency, the petro dollar, the money YOU need "me too" We exported more in the third quarter of 2022 than we imported, the Yuan is a joke of a manipulated, lying waste of time. The USA is the greatest thing since sliced bread and I get to say it because I live and love the USA
PS all you Ebay worried folk? You know the $600 scare? Not happening! A non issue as a matter of fact Congress is arguing over a reporting level now. $20k or $5k who knows. READ AGAIN "WHO KNOWS" , BUT NOT NOW.
You want real change; Join the Convention of States in your State today.
Guess the boogie man went back into hibernation. Imagine that. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Actually stored inventories are at 85% but equal only 22.5% of the EU's annual consumption.
"However, this is just one side of the story. Filling underground gas storage reservoirs is one thing. Buying gas is another, and it’s significantly more costly than it used to be. It is up to 10 times more expensive than in previous seasons."
And this, FishHead, is why natural gas is a fitting topic of any discussion on world wide inflation. A shortage of consumer money to buy gas needed for home heat equates to a gas shortage to those who cannot afford it.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
FISHHEAD! LOL
Something has to change. That’s for sure.
Here comes ; The Pivot
Not yet - you have to wait a bit longer. Unless you are talking about a 25 point increase.
According to Williams, who is paid to get it right, inflation for 2022 was 16%.
Energy prices are softening currently which will have a positive effect on inflation next two quarters. It's not going away soon however. One of the ways to make it go away is to jump the fed rate dramatically and lower energy prices significantly both of which are currently unacceptable politically.
I don't need to buy a house or a truck so price movement with those doesn't touch me. But I observe people complaining about food prices and shrinkage. That effects people every week. How long til the pitchforks come out?
HEY SPARKY, YOU ONLY QUOTE OUT OF CONTEXT SO PLEASE PASS ME BY. TYIA. LOVE🥰
We are debt free. The grocery and supply bills are extremely noticeable if you want your regular stuff. Double is more realistic than that 16%.
JPs dilemma "; read between the arrow
Saudi Arabia taking all currencies in payment of oil ? No more USD dominance as Petro dollar?
Thoughts
Can't trust china etc
Probably just noise keeping us amused while the oligarchs raise rates and taxes in currency and we foot the bill.
End of the petrodollar's grip on other nations was forecast by a few here for a few years now. They were called conspiracy theorists. LOL
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Not conspiracy theorists.....bunker dwellers
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabia-just-said-now-213200817.html
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Good inciteful article cohodk and sharp memory by derryb.
Is gold to bubbly ?
Is this going to happen again after retaking $1900
https://money.cnn.com/2011/08/22/markets/gold_prices/index.htm
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
You assume that foreigners still and will always want dollars. "Want" is rapidly declining. In another year or two this bunker theory will also become reality.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
The Feds going to cut. Rates are going lower.
The whole world 🌎 can't be wrong, lest the Fed thinks so.
All the Blue chips are cutting loose aka laying off employees.
No soft , just a big pivot.
When you save rates are going lower, do you mean the Fed Funds Rate, or longer term 5 or 10 year treasuries?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
ONLY rate FED directly controls is the fed funds rate - the overnight rate banks charge each other for very short term loans. They know that they can use this to control the fear/hope that unfittingly determines market rates.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
That doesn't answer the question I posed to Soldi.
I was wondering if anyone has noticed that rates on 5 to 10 treasuries are already down almost 100 bps over the last few months which is economically stimulative.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Fed Funds. The long bonds tresuries etc have an inherent inverted yield curve. I believe what you and i see is due to the fed tighting, nobody seems to want to chance anything over a year.
My whole point of this thread is whether or not the fed tightens any further and I'm out on a limb speculating they will loosen.
Best to go to the bank and buy yourself a cd.
I expect 90% chance of a 25-point increase Feb 1st, but still a 10% chance they stay at 50 to show they are serious about getting core inflation back to 2%. Tech job losses are being highlighted, but service sector jobs are still increasing and wages there are going up.
Chipotle said Thursday it’s looking to hire 15,000 people in North America to ensure its stores are staffed up ahead of its busy spring season. Other chains are also looking for workers: Taco Bell has more than 25,000 listings for crew members posted on its website, while Starbucks has posted more than 10,000 listings for baristas.
U.S. restaurants have added jobs for 24 consecutive months since the height of the pandemic, according to the National Restaurant Association. But restaurant employment is still 3.6% lower than before the pandemic, or the equivalent of 450,000 jobs.
The LOL Inflation Reduction Act will toss billions towards new "green" American manufacturing jobs. There is way too much fiscal spending out there to stop inflation at this point for the Fed to ease.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Highly touted declines in diesel and gasoline prices appear to have been transitory
U.S. gasoline prices have shot up an unusually strong 9.2% in January to average about $3.50 a gallon as of Thursday, which could throw a wrench in the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
“Roughly one month out of that [Dec.] low, national average gas prices have risen 12.9% for the sharpest one-month increase since last June. Whereas prices have historically risen an average of less than 1%” year-to-date through Jan. 26, “this year the increase has been 9.16%.”
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Not a chance, that limb that you are on broke a long time ago. Quarter Point increase next week.
Don't get too hung up on the Fed ending rate hikes as a pivot point. The markets are trapped into that kind of thinking. Wall Street will choke on 4 or 5% funds rate. The Fed won't have enough trailing data it relies on to start lowering rates in the first half of this year. When the quarter point cuts do start it may be too late to prevent inevitable recession and a serious hit to stock markets. Right now earnings multiples are climbing at a faster rate than the markets, and are around 50% higher than historical averages. Price increases may look like they are moderating right now, but consider all the pressure that wage hikes may have in a few months. Not to mention $90B more in SS income this year. These increases are recent, and won't manifest themselves into the CPI statistics for a few months.
We need a significant recession in order to straighten out the mess this and the previous administrations has gotten us into. People need to stop expecting handouts and get back to work. There are jobs out there even in a recession.
one of the best jobs out their is transporting a check from the mailbox to the bank.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Who started this thread ???
That guy said; 50 basis points IS a pivot. Okay 25 or zero is IS ?
IS WHAT?? Loosening
25
will the FED blink? lol
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Slowing the rate or percentage of increase is not a pivot if the overall rate is still increasing. They are still tightening. Lowering the overall rate would be a pivot. Not reducing the percentage that they are increasing. If the Fed went to a zero point increase - then it may be a pivot or merely a pause in tightening. It depends on what direction they move next. So we are talking about two different definitions of what a pivot means.
I do understand your reasoning, however and could argue that position as well - even if I don’t believe it.
The lost decade? RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
January 2020 quite the opportunity
For a buyer of paper gutter yes, physical not so much. LULZ!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
It's all for paper even FRNs are paper, everything is paper. The horror, the horror LULZ!
Your precious SLV took quite a dive today.
Silver Eagles not so much.
NOT EVEN A CHINESE SPY BALLOON CAN RAISE THE PRICE OF SLV AND GLD right now, buy an hold
Yes, Yes, Yes Indeed now I have the chance to buy more, buy more, more and dollar cost average down. Without inflation the whole, as in all, all the world debt fueling and economy will fail. Don't freak out just buy more and enjoy the currency
US Debt an optimistic "rose outlook" will be $42,000,000,000,000 as in 42 Trillion within 10 years. Buy Copper, Rhodium, Platinum, Gold and Silver.
PS Nothing is precious to me.
Play the game until it cannot be played any longer. Reap the Currency Spend it get the Velocity UP, UP I say!
>
The U.S. Gov't acknowledges almost $32 trillion in debt today. $42 trillion is 5 years away tops.
There was a time when 5% UI was the benchmark for inflation at below 5% and leaning toward recession when above 5%
"Politically motivated intellectual dishonesty" Meaning the numbers were massaged and now, ??? 517,000 jobs added???
Okay a strong dollar keeps the world paying more, but honestly: I think metals should have responded to the massaged numbers below 5% aka 3.4% UI Doing what holding down 3 fast food jobs? by who? 20 to 40 year old people full of energy and having little future? I know this; IDK.
None of the above is a reflection on the fine numismatists I see here.
don't jobs numbers always get revised to a worse number? Why do they even need revision? Makes one question their source. LOL
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Gutter headed back to where it started. LOL
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
For next ten business days silver drifts lower then bang zoom.... Saw tooth to the atmosphere.
What?
LOL
I wondered if anyone would catch that.
Honestly inflation will be here for a long time to come.
Wanna wager? Oil will be $100 ,pet bbl before we know it.
GLD and SLV will just be around
Inflation is always monetary and the Fed hadn't a grip WHICH IS WHY I STARTED THIS thread stating 50 BASIS POINTS IS A PIVOT.,
It's lunacy it's worse than the title!
25 basis points is a more of a pivot.
Inflation will be around for a long time. Commodity pricing will be anyone's guess.
My guess is higher and you won't want to afford them
I think we'd all love to afford higher prices.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Recent inflation numbers revised UPWARD as per the year-end seasonal adjustments. When I worked as an economist, you ALWAYS waited to see if changes altered the trajectory. I wonder how many will make the adjustment before Tuesday's CPI release,
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-december-consumer-prices-revised-higher-2023-02-10/
White House actually reached out to Steven Van Metre on YouTube to defend jobs reporting BLS is rechecking and checking again before it releases CPI . Dec . Nov. inflation numbers being vetted , adjusted , scrutinized. The Fed is considering, conjecture so far, a rate cut. Apparently savings depletion and increased credit card use is lagging the highest levels of compilation. Best to Google Van Metre on YouTube watch entire video (15min)
Inflation is accelerating even without a cut the rate is unacceptable. All low hanging fruit has been harvested by the Fed. get ready for a metals explosion.