"Inventories of diesel in the United States are the lowest they have been heading into winter in 70 years."
"I" as in me, pronoun. I disagree with the spin USA cracking catalysts for diesel is West Texas intermediate crude. Google cracking catalysts and diesel source. 16 million per day could be and I (see pronoun) believe it's just a boondoggle making big money for Oil companies coming out of the pandemic. I (see pronoun) would never cite the Washington Post.
That's just me (again). 25 days of diesel on hand and remaining as 25 days since early October 2022.
Right on que. Next a 5% - 10% dollar index drop to below 100 followed by a rise in gold. And don't expect the FED to once again save the day in 2023 when stocks crash, they've fired all of their bullets.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Pivot smivot for sure. Dollar index up around 2% today. Hopefully, Fed will loosely stick to its commitments. One thing that the markets are entirely discounting is the Fed's pledge to hold rates steady for a period of time. The real pivot isn't when the Fed stops raising, it's when they start the next phase of lowering rates and increasing their balance sheet again. Keep in mind that so far the Fed has only reduced it's balance sheet by 4% (around $400B). If the Fed simply holds rates steady through all of 2023 the stock and real estate markets (bubbles) will pop. Oddest Powell comment was when he responded that the Fed was not and would not change its inflation target. But then later he suggested it might be a topic to discuss later.
Powell's unsure of himself remarks. Certainly of recession, no soft landing and next year's easing?
The price jump smacks of short covering and the numbers we're looking at are used by traders. All silver transactions for metal physical,,seem to have premiums attached.
@Soldi said:
Weakness in the dollar should have lifted gold silver.
Gold and silver won't pop until rates start coming DOWN, JPOW stated yesterday the terminal rate will be higher than previously thought ANDthe fed will not lower rates THROUGH 2023. Neither the dot plot terminal rate, nor keeping the terminal rate at its peak through 2023 were (and I still don't think are) priced into the markets.
Every rise in rates will require more money creation soon. Every rise in rates creates more pressure on the economy. More free money will be required to keep the markets from imploding.
I don't see a way out that doesn't include defaults on debt and gross money creation to try and prevent the implosion.
Bailing out the banks is a just another backdoor tax that places a heavy millstone around the necks of workers and savers for the benefit of a few well-placed insiders.
Any bank that isn't prudent enough to manage it's without a bailout should be liquidated and their high-paid officers should loose their golden parachutes and corporate perks before being escorted out of the building.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
"Any bank that isn't prudent enough to manage it's without a bailout should be liquidated and their high-paid officers should loose their golden parachutes and corporate perks before being escorted out of the building."
This would be the case in any world other than "Bizzaro".
@Soldi said:
Weakness in the dollar should have lifted gold silver.
Gold and silver won't pop until rates start coming DOWN, JPOW stated yesterday the terminal rate will be higher than previously thought ANDthe fed will not lower rates THROUGH 2023. Neither the dot plot terminal rate, nor keeping the terminal rate at its peak through 2023 were (and I still don't think are) priced into the markets.
Gold may initially react negatively with interest rate increases but it will adjust to the spread between interest rates and the inflation rate. Higher spread (think of it as a higher "premium") results in higher gold. So, theoretically, if inflation grows and interest rates remain stable or increase less than inflation is increasing then PMs could pop even with a higher interest rate. Too little attention is paid to this spread, but it sends many a powerful message about the economy.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Bailing out the banks is a just another backdoor tax that places a heavy millstone around the necks of workers and savers for the benefit of a few well-placed insiders.
@ColonelKlinck said:
Any bank that isn't prudent enough to manage it's without a bailout should be liquidated and their high-paid officers should loose their golden parachutes and corporate perks before being escorted out of the building.
Iceland did this with good results..we didn't learn from Iceland though...
Gold and silver won't pop until rates start coming DOWN, JPOW stated yesterday the terminal rate will be higher than previously thought ANDthe fed will not lower rates THROUGH 2023. Neither the dot plot terminal rate, nor keeping the terminal rate at its peak through 2023 were (and I still don't think are) priced into the markets.
Gold and silver won't pop until rates start coming DOWN, JPOW stated yesterday the terminal rate will be higher than previously thought ANDthe fed will not lower rates THROUGH 2023. Neither the dot plot terminal rate, nor keeping the terminal rate at its peak through 2023 were (and I still don't think are) priced into the markets.
Serious Recession up ahead.
They'll be little money left over for gold and silver positions, not to mention the coin market. The shows will start the customer whining again.
@Soldi said:
Weakness in the dollar should have lifted gold silver.
Gold and silver won't pop until rates start coming DOWN, JPOW stated yesterday the terminal rate will be higher than previously thought ANDthe fed will not lower rates THROUGH 2023. Neither the dot plot terminal rate, nor keeping the terminal rate at its peak through 2023 were (and I still don't think are) priced into the markets.
It's going to be another go nowhere year for those hoarding the gutter. No doubt. RGDS!
Jim Rickards explains clearly what a recession is, and also what a depression is. The shallow recession ended with a very anemic quarter (that will probably be revised anyway), and we are now entering what will be a much more severe recession.
A depression can have periods of a rising stock market, but that doesn't diminish from the hardship that most people will be facing. We could already be in a depression and won't know it for several years.
The economy is sucking air and credit card debt, loan defaults & car repossessions are all high and going higher. Goldman Sachs is laying off thousands along with Facebook and Twitter.
This economic catastrophe is being orchestrated with some of the worst policies on record. Selling strategic oil reserves to China, while the Chinese are allowed to buy US farmland near our military bases? I'd like to know exactly where the kickbacks are all going.
We haven't seen anything yet, in terms of debt creation. You won't be able to comprehend the amount of free money coming down the pike. 63% can't make ends meet with their family budgets? 90% of US households are insolvent? As incomprehensible as this is, the consequences will be with us for a very long time.
The politicians and the bankers that own them are nobody's friends.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
" Goldman Sachs is laying off thousands along with Facebook and Twitter."
Jmski52 hits the magic word ! and the fact is this word "layoff" hasn't hit the economic bean count yet due to "Severance" for thousands of people and they are about to start trickling in the UI count, along with a massive Stock Sell Off this last week of December and I doubt any 'January Effect' in the market just like the early 2000s era. .....com, etc. up to 2006-2008.
Maybe I should hedge my response, just like all those people who trade in physical silver and gold do with; blah, blah, blah and sell it anyway to some fool who thinks his money should be allocated 75% in Silver and 25% in life needs.
Hedge = "Well, you know it could happen a little bit later", but what I'm telling you is fact.
PS. When I was taught economics back in 1994 I was led to believe that 5% UI is balanced and under 5% will over heat the economy and over 5% will lend itself to recession and then told; well the UI numbers are politically motivated dishonesty in the USA. We as a Nation are way under 5% reported right now J Powell sees this "massaged number" as good and all we hear is "LOOKOUT RECESSION UP AHEAD"
This economic catastrophe is being orchestrated with some of the worst policies on record. Selling strategic oil reserves to China, while the Chinese are allowed to buy US farmland near our military bases? I'd like to know exactly where the kickbacks are all going.
Can you please.share your sources as these appear to be of fear mongering ignorance.
Gregory Mannarino, Greg Hunter, and possibly Jim Rickards - it's been reported in the financial press and it's pretty common knowledge by now.
And we keep voting for them. Seems maybe "we" are not our friends.
The whole system is incestuous. Why would you want to blame the voters in a rigged system for being constantly backstabbed by the two-faced politicians, and their banker & corporate owners? The only alternative is not to vote at all. What's your brilliant solution?
Do you want the Govt to say what you can and can't sell and to whom?
I can hear you whining now...."This Govt won't let me sell my land. In fact, they want to pay me under market value".
Let me understand. You don't believe that it's a national security issue? There aren't any adversarial countries that let Americans buy their land. Why would you want a known enemy with expansionist plans owning property in the US at all - let alone next to a military base?
China has already bought numerous politicians at the federal level in all 3 branches of government. Do you think all that is A-OK? Where the hell would you draw the line? Do tell. Then, explain it to your kids.
So much for the free markets you so champion.
Seriously, do you think a free market means letting China buy US real estate? What else would you sell them?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I'm still waiting to see some stats on 90% of US households being insolvent. I'll be waiting a long time since this is not true. It is manipulation of the weak minded though.
No, we shouldn't sell our land to China, but should we have the Govt determine what we can do with our land? Why didn't some Americans step up to buy it, it was only $2.6 million. From the article it sounds like the town welcomes the outside investment. Blame them? This isn't an issue of "policy" but one of rights....and the govt shall not infringe. We buy foreign land all the time, running the risk of it being confiscated, but to say there are adversarial countries that do not let us is simply not true.
The only alternative is not to vote at all. What's your brilliant solution?
That's a great idea. And stop gerrymandering..
Free markets---should we let China buy US gold?
FWIW---We should stop ALL trade of everything with China. You agree? We the people keep buying Chinese junk, yup, we are not our friends.
The real problem is the loss of knowledge by the general public that believe we are a democracy, we are not. We are a Constitutional Republic and contained within that Constitution are Rights. People freely give them up by not knowing them.
There are, from memory, Seven Articles, The Bill of Rights (first ten amendments) , total 33 amendments 6 not ratified, two that cancel each other out humm? 18 and 21, leaves us with 25. Nobody cares, nobody knows them they just think you can't fight City Hall as the saying goes.
Now, if you want real change join "The Convention of States" in your State. ARTICLE 5 OF THE CONSTITUTION. Amend the overreaching Powers,call for Fiscal responsibility, States Rights respected.
Don't we need monetary and fiscal policy to be working at the same time?
Absolutely nothing is being done on the fiscal policy side that will help control inflation.
Monetary policy can't hike us out of inflation without causing a depression if fiscal policy is going in the other, inflating direction.
Comments
U.S. diesel shortage squeezes farmers, homeowners and White House
"Inventories of diesel in the United States are the lowest they have been heading into winter in 70 years."
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
"I" as in me, pronoun. I disagree with the spin USA cracking catalysts for diesel is West Texas intermediate crude. Google cracking catalysts and diesel source. 16 million per day could be and I (see pronoun) believe it's just a boondoggle making big money for Oil companies coming out of the pandemic. I (see pronoun) would never cite the Washington Post.
That's just me (again). 25 days of diesel on hand and remaining as 25 days since early October 2022.
I (pronoun) opine . Thank you
Diesel invetories at 95% and 96% of pre-pandemic leves in 2018 and 2019 respectively for this same time of year.
Funny how this scare tactic narrative was so prominent at election time.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The scare tactic worked for me, I filled up my 3 plastic containers so I'd have enough to use the tractor to feed the cows........... just incase
Martin
CPI ???
This should be fun
Check that box.
Here comes Santa Clause.
Thanks Jay
Right on que. Next a 5% - 10% dollar index drop to below 100 followed by a rise in gold. And don't expect the FED to once again save the day in 2023 when stocks crash, they've fired all of their bullets.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Pivot smivot for sure. Dollar index up around 2% today. Hopefully, Fed will loosely stick to its commitments. One thing that the markets are entirely discounting is the Fed's pledge to hold rates steady for a period of time. The real pivot isn't when the Fed stops raising, it's when they start the next phase of lowering rates and increasing their balance sheet again. Keep in mind that so far the Fed has only reduced it's balance sheet by 4% (around $400B). If the Fed simply holds rates steady through all of 2023 the stock and real estate markets (bubbles) will pop. Oddest Powell comment was when he responded that the Fed was not and would not change its inflation target. But then later he suggested it might be a topic to discuss later.
It's only been 24 hours but this already isn't aging well. Gold is doing "wonders", that's for sure.
Why would the dollar drop when the FED said rates will be higher for longer?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Powell's unsure of himself remarks. Certainly of recession, no soft landing and next year's easing?
The price jump smacks of short covering and the numbers we're looking at are used by traders. All silver transactions for metal physical,,seem to have premiums attached.
Because I said that it will. Patience grasshopper.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Weakness in the dollar should have lifted gold silver.
and it will.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Gold and silver won't pop until rates start coming DOWN, JPOW stated yesterday the terminal rate will be higher than previously thought ANDthe fed will not lower rates THROUGH 2023. Neither the dot plot terminal rate, nor keeping the terminal rate at its peak through 2023 were (and I still don't think are) priced into the markets.
Every rise in rates will require more money creation soon. Every rise in rates creates more pressure on the economy. More free money will be required to keep the markets from imploding.
I don't see a way out that doesn't include defaults on debt and gross money creation to try and prevent the implosion.
Bailing out the banks is a just another backdoor tax that places a heavy millstone around the necks of workers and savers for the benefit of a few well-placed insiders.
Any bank that isn't prudent enough to manage it's without a bailout should be liquidated and their high-paid officers should loose their golden parachutes and corporate perks before being escorted out of the building.
I knew it would happen.
"Any bank that isn't prudent enough to manage it's without a bailout should be liquidated and their high-paid officers should loose their golden parachutes and corporate perks before being escorted out of the building."
This would be the case in any world other than "Bizzaro".
The only concern a stacker should have about interest rates is their effect on the dollar.
Higher rates, higher dollar. Higher dollar, lower gold.
Gold may initially react negatively with interest rate increases but it will adjust to the spread between interest rates and the inflation rate. Higher spread (think of it as a higher "premium") results in higher gold. So, theoretically, if inflation grows and interest rates remain stable or increase less than inflation is increasing then PMs could pop even with a higher interest rate. Too little attention is paid to this spread, but it sends many a powerful message about the economy.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Iceland did this with good results..we didn't learn from Iceland though...
Bond traders aren't buying FED's BS and are betting on rate cuts.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
They obviously haven't listened to jmski.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Serious Recession up ahead.
They'll be little money left over for gold and silver positions, not to mention the coin market. The shows will start the customer whining again.
It's going to be another go nowhere year for those hoarding the gutter. No doubt. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
For the first time in a long time The Fed is in a bit of a sticky wicket.
They are really good at parking interest rates at 0% and dumping trillions of free money into the system while talking the talk.
Congress is already lobbying for lower interest rates. Their "friend's" cattle prod is plenty warm.
Inflation doesn't really hurt those pulling the strings anyway. Let the puppet show go on!
Why does anyone have any faith in these idiots?
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Yup, we still waiting for the recession. Maybe next year.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The Fed pivot was more like a divot. They need to up their game a bit, or maybe just not play at all for a while.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
two in two years is not a sign of a strong economy. lol
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Derry man ! You got a great memory
But a horrible track record for sure.
Fed has no effect on the economy, these buy it and try it knuckle heads have only a response to the cpi , economic conditions.
Mark this down the NEXT FED ACTION will be zero and then easing and easing rapidly.
The idiots who
So no recession now?
What happened?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
new accounting methods? lol
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Jim Rickards explains clearly what a recession is, and also what a depression is. The shallow recession ended with a very anemic quarter (that will probably be revised anyway), and we are now entering what will be a much more severe recession.
A depression can have periods of a rising stock market, but that doesn't diminish from the hardship that most people will be facing. We could already be in a depression and won't know it for several years.
The economy is sucking air and credit card debt, loan defaults & car repossessions are all high and going higher. Goldman Sachs is laying off thousands along with Facebook and Twitter.
This economic catastrophe is being orchestrated with some of the worst policies on record. Selling strategic oil reserves to China, while the Chinese are allowed to buy US farmland near our military bases? I'd like to know exactly where the kickbacks are all going.
We haven't seen anything yet, in terms of debt creation. You won't be able to comprehend the amount of free money coming down the pike. 63% can't make ends meet with their family budgets? 90% of US households are insolvent? As incomprehensible as this is, the consequences will be with us for a very long time.
The politicians and the bankers that own them are nobody's friends.
I knew it would happen.
" Goldman Sachs is laying off thousands along with Facebook and Twitter."
Jmski52 hits the magic word ! and the fact is this word "layoff" hasn't hit the economic bean count yet due to "Severance" for thousands of people and they are about to start trickling in the UI count, along with a massive Stock Sell Off this last week of December and I doubt any 'January Effect' in the market just like the early 2000s era. .....com, etc. up to 2006-2008.
Maybe I should hedge my response, just like all those people who trade in physical silver and gold do with; blah, blah, blah and sell it anyway to some fool who thinks his money should be allocated 75% in Silver and 25% in life needs.
Hedge = "Well, you know it could happen a little bit later", but what I'm telling you is fact.
PS. When I was taught economics back in 1994 I was led to believe that 5% UI is balanced and under 5% will over heat the economy and over 5% will lend itself to recession and then told; well the UI numbers are politically motivated dishonesty in the USA. We as a Nation are way under 5% reported right now J Powell sees this "massaged number" as good and all we hear is "LOOKOUT RECESSION UP AHEAD"
The lies are hidden in the details.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
If one doesn't know if they are in a recession or not then they ain't.
Can you please.share your sources as these appear to be of fear mongering ignorance.
And we keep voting for them. Seems maybe "we" are not our friends.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
https://landreport.com/2022/08/chinese-buy-north-dakota-farmland-near-air-force-base/
Do you want the Govt to say what you can and can't sell and to whom?
I can hear you whining now...."This Govt won't let me sell my land. In fact, they want to pay me under market value".
So much for the free markets you so champion.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Can you please.share your sources as these appear to be of fear mongering ignorance.
Gregory Mannarino, Greg Hunter, and possibly Jim Rickards - it's been reported in the financial press and it's pretty common knowledge by now.
And we keep voting for them. Seems maybe "we" are not our friends.
The whole system is incestuous. Why would you want to blame the voters in a rigged system for being constantly backstabbed by the two-faced politicians, and their banker & corporate owners? The only alternative is not to vote at all. What's your brilliant solution?
Do you want the Govt to say what you can and can't sell and to whom?
I can hear you whining now...."This Govt won't let me sell my land. In fact, they want to pay me under market value".
Let me understand. You don't believe that it's a national security issue? There aren't any adversarial countries that let Americans buy their land. Why would you want a known enemy with expansionist plans owning property in the US at all - let alone next to a military base?
China has already bought numerous politicians at the federal level in all 3 branches of government. Do you think all that is A-OK? Where the hell would you draw the line? Do tell. Then, explain it to your kids.
So much for the free markets you so champion.
Seriously, do you think a free market means letting China buy US real estate? What else would you sell them?
I knew it would happen.
I'm still waiting to see some stats on 90% of US households being insolvent. I'll be waiting a long time since this is not true. It is manipulation of the weak minded though.
No, we shouldn't sell our land to China, but should we have the Govt determine what we can do with our land? Why didn't some Americans step up to buy it, it was only $2.6 million. From the article it sounds like the town welcomes the outside investment. Blame them? This isn't an issue of "policy" but one of rights....and the govt shall not infringe. We buy foreign land all the time, running the risk of it being confiscated, but to say there are adversarial countries that do not let us is simply not true.
That's a great idea. And stop gerrymandering..
Free markets---should we let China buy US gold?
FWIW---We should stop ALL trade of everything with China. You agree? We the people keep buying Chinese junk, yup, we are not our friends.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The real problem is the loss of knowledge by the general public that believe we are a democracy, we are not. We are a Constitutional Republic and contained within that Constitution are Rights. People freely give them up by not knowing them.
There are, from memory, Seven Articles, The Bill of Rights (first ten amendments) , total 33 amendments 6 not ratified, two that cancel each other out humm? 18 and 21, leaves us with 25. Nobody cares, nobody knows them they just think you can't fight City Hall as the saying goes.
Now, if you want real change join "The Convention of States" in your State. ARTICLE 5 OF THE CONSTITUTION. Amend the overreaching Powers,call for Fiscal responsibility, States Rights respected.
I agree. All Bumbling fools.
Don't we need monetary and fiscal policy to be working at the same time?
Absolutely nothing is being done on the fiscal policy side that will help control inflation.
Monetary policy can't hike us out of inflation without causing a depression if fiscal policy is going in the other, inflating direction.
"the Fed is still completely oblivious to the disaster it has created." - Peter Schiff
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I think it knows I believe they are trying to not acknowledge it and they can make it go away with magic monetary solutions
Shiff, lol don't even know what to say.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I think we have an answer! The DOW TODAY 12/22/22 down 750+ points. Fear of recession woes and look GLD and SLV took a hit too.
Hummm. Could be an early pivot this coming year, then cut, cut, cut like the YO-YOs I think WAMMO ! MADE. Or is it Yo-Yo's in the Fed.
I guess free money to non-Americans doesn't count.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
What??? I mean Hola !!
Fixed it for you. And by default, it is us.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Diesel inventories for this time of year are now higher than in 2018 (when some think times were much better).
Natural gas inventories in Europe are at 83% of capacity--higher than last year-- and represent 4 years of demand.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear