so are gold and silver some of the worst recent investments ever?
WingedLiberty1957
Posts: 2,978 ✭✭✭✭✭
I know i will get a lot of pushback, bring it on! But gold and silver didnt really participate in the huge bubble inflated during post financial crisis of 2008. Things like stocks and bitcoin and real estate did much better. Those bullion lovers always said, just wait until the bubble pops and inflation heats up. So we have those bubbles popping now and inflation is up over 10%, meanwhile gold and silver are dropping like rocks. So when do gold and silver actually outperform?
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I can tell you with all certainty silver is in no way a hedge against inflation. Twice in the last decade or so it has proven to be a loser, gold too. So there’s my answer.
they are not an investment. They are hedge against a rotting currency and mostly wrong economic policy makers. They will also become a hedge against inflation once buyers realize inflation is not going to be fixed any time soon and that those attempting to fix it are the ones who created it. As faith in the fixers dwindles PMs will rise.
Lots of cash on the sidelines as everyone bails out of everything. PMs will not rise until that cash is looking to get its feet wet.
The chart shows that after the financial/real estate big bubble burst in 2008 gold initially dropped as the crowd ran to cash. But once that cash went looking for a new home pay close attention to what gold did. I say gold is a bargain. Silver with low premiums is a huge bargain.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Let's see how things develop. In 2008, everything went down pretty hard but it only took about 6 months for gold & silver to recover and go on to make new highs.
It took the stock market years to recover, and then it was only because the Fed was pumping out massive QE.
The Fed is now going in the other direction, at least for the moment. When the Fed tried to taper a couple years ago, they had to back off in a big hurry when the stock market had a fainting spell.
It seems like a game of chicken, but if the Fed continues to tighten, I see more risk of a major downside to the stock market than I see for physical precious metals. Rising rates will basically kill the 30+ year old rising bond market trend.
When all the paper goes up in smoke, you'll still have metals because they are real. Reality does take precedence every now & then and the reality is that the Fed is using inflation to revalue (and possibly to destroy) the entire debt market because Congress has spent its way into such a hole that inflation is the only way to make the bond payments even possible. Producer prices just went over 10%. So much for transitory or even peak inflation. They constantly misdirect and lie.
Volker had to raise Fed Funds to 21% and CFTC had to halt trading in silver to raise margin requirements in order to quell inflation and to kill off the rally in the silver market in 1980. We're only in the beginning stages of the inflationary spiral and rates have a very long way to go before we hit 21% on Fed Funds.
Like I said, let's see how things develop.
I knew it would happen.
A weak Euro and a weak Yen are holding PMs down.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
How much is the USA worth? I'm estimating that maybe 5 million Spanish Pesos did the trick.
0.9028 fine (24.443 g fine silver) = 110335702 grams or about 11,000 kg of silver. How much is that worth. How much is the US worth.
Is that a great return or what? Maybe the best ever.
$705 kg silver. That's only $8 million. That's all? Wow.
For the fourth quarter of 2019, total wealth in the U.S. was $111.04 trillion.Dec 21, 2021
https://financebuzz.com › us-net-wo...
So from $8 million to $111 trillion 1779 to present.
Roll Tide
I'm in Alabama.
So that's your answer. The metal is just a part of the equation. The foundation. The rest of it including what happens after means so much more.
I've never invested in gold or silver.
I store wealth.
--Severian the Lame
From jsmineset:
It might be worth your time to study the chart.
I knew it would happen.
No, it all depends on your specific situation. Dumb luck, I got interested in 10 ounce silver bars from 2016 -2019, probably bought $5000 at between $14-20/ounce. Sold it all at $28 in 2020 when things went crazy and people were buying for like $4 over spot. In my view, you add, realize it’s a hedge, and if profit comes, you take it.
If you look at the stock market or cryptos right now, they don’t look like the best investment. 2 years from now, might be a very different story.
Buy low, sell high.
Dropping like rocks? What chart are you looking at?
Do it for the money, for the currency, for what you can use it for. If the whole economy crashes down; I think guns have more utility.
Look at the charts.... Gold and silver may not be good investments in the last year, but value now compared to purchase price 20 years ago.... voila'.... smiles. Cheers, RickO
I don't consider PMs to be an 'investment', but wealth preservation and a part of a well diversified portfolio.
Gold, silver, collectible coins, 90% coins, hard assets, stocks/bonds, real estate, etc.
I try to trade with the philosophy that as I look around, some seem undervalued. You buy, you sell. Hopefully you learn from your mistakes.
I've had some home runs and some strike outs.
Not quite but close. Cryptos and anything Cathy Woods touched are a bit worse. RGDS
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Yes.... not as bad as a few companies which no longer exist. I could name a few.... But, the metal is still there.
I don't view the metals as a hedge but more a preservation of wealth.
I do not buy metals for their appreciation but more for their steadiness and intrinsic value.
"I don't view the metals as a hedge but more a preservation of wealth."
Keep buying it for that purpose in mind, I'll guarantee that you will not be a "happy camper." when it's time to sell. PM's are just another asset class (like stocks or bonds) and should be traded accordingly. Timing, demand & supply, along with occasional speculations is the driving force,
Voila???? Good timing on your part. Not so good if you backed up the truck in 2010 or 2011.
@OPA ... I left the truck in the garage at that time.... Needed new springs, shocks and tires after all it carried 10-12 years before....
Cheers, RickO
Lucky for you. Unfortunately, some forum members "ate up all the hype" (brainwashed) , judging from the posts in 2010 - 2012 did exactly that; "backed up their trucks.' Keep on smiling, there is always an outside chance for silver to hit $50 again by the turn of the 22d century.
Jim Rogers says silver and agriculture are the two best current investments
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I buy 20’s because I like them. If everything goes according to plan I will never need them. By the time my daughter retires I’m certain they will help things out. I think about all the 20’s I’ve seen in 2x2’s over the years with prices well under 50 bucks marked on them. You don’t buy today expecting big profits unless there is a zombie apocalypse. Years down the road like those 20’s under $50 they will do just fine.
LOL Jim Rogers has been calling for the end of the world and pumping silver as the best investment ever for decades. Wonder which silver mine he owns. Unbelievable that anyone still gives this clown a platform to spread his propaganda. Crazy World!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
So is silver an "investment"? So many conflicting opinions in this thread.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I've found that expressing my ideas and thoughts are an exercise in futility, especially as it pertains to investing. Waiting for silver and gold to return to zero, like a few investments I've made.
For as long as humans have had some form of industry (the last 5,000+ years), the value of silver and gold has never been "zero". So it would not be possible for silver and gold to "return" to zero, since they have never been there in the first place.
However, paper versions could potentially go to zero under certain conditions. Physical silver and gold could only go to zero if most or all humans were dead.
i stand corrected. i meant a dollar for .775 oz
So true.
I would like to add ' financial insurance' to the list.
We buy and promote life insurance, car insurance and house insurance, why should we overlook financial or 'market' insurance?
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Your reasoning is like comparing apples to oranges. Purchasing PM for "insurance" reason may have fruitful 100+ years ago, but I have my doubts if it will be helpful now nor in the future. Owning crop producing land or a fresh water source, is a much better policy.
Financial diversification can include many types of assets... they all have positives... and negatives. We place our bets as we see fit.
Real estate/farmland is great... for those who don't mind the work and upkeep that usually comes with it... and don't have to worry about it's 'portability' if/when they may have to move (but usually there are plenty of other buyers).
Water is plentiful here. But crop producing land is nearly $20,000 per acre. If you can find any. And good luck finding a parcel smaller than 75 acres if you do.
But I get what you're saying.
You can be the type of gloom and doom prepper who hides in a bomb shelter with MRES and crates of ammo. Or you can be oblivious to everything and throw caution to the wind without giving a thought to bad things that might happen to you.
I choose to apply thoughtful balance to what I do: Hard work, steady and thoughtful investing. And being prepared to take advantage of bigger opportunities when they knock. And, when I've got a moment, enjoying myself.
I'd feel like I was doing all of this without a safety net and leaving it all to chance if I didn't take some chips off the table periodically. Storing a small percentage of income in non-paper assets. Not just gold and silver, though those are the primary vehicles. But I'm also a collector at heart and have been for nearly 50 years. So it's very selective coins, artwork, antiques. Even liquor. I'd rather lose the home, the cars, the real estate, the stocks and have a few suitcases of things I can lay my hands and bug out or fall back on. Even if that stuff loses almost all of its value. Better to have that gold and silver than to not have it.
That's the insurance.
--Severian the Lame
FWIW: That bottle of Macallan today:
https://www.wine-searcher.com/find/the+macallan+eighteen+old+sherry+oak+single+malt+scotch+whisky+speyside+highlands+scotland/1997/usa-il-y
--Severian the Lame
Appropriate drink for when the SHTF.
Is that emergency generator sitting in your garage that you hardly or never use a bad investment? Or is it protection ready to do its job?
If one is holding gold as and investment they are making a huge mistake. Hold it for protection, let it sit in the garage safe ready to its job.
FWIW it is doing its job quite well in Japan:
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Okay...so I reckon gold is now up way too high and that the bubble is bound to burst soon...like we already saw at least a couple other times.
I mean, no offense to the gold bugs here but I never understood those gold investment commercials...I thought the idea of investing in something is to buy low and sell high?
D's: 54S,53P,50P,49S,45D+S,44S,43D,41S,40D+S,39D+S,38D+S,37D+S,36S,35D+S,all 16-34's
Q's: 52S,47S,46S,40S,39S,38S,37D+S,36D+S,35D,34D,32D+S
74T: 37,38,47,151,193,241,435,570,610,654,655 97 Finest silver: 115,135,139,145,310
73T:31,55,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,80,152,165,189,213,235,237,257,341,344,377,379,390,422,433,453,480,497,545,554,563,580,606,613,630
95 Ultra GM Sets: Golden Prospects,HR Kings,On-Base Leaders,Power Plus,RBI Kings,Rising Stars
Yes, the absolute worst. That must be why i’ve sold more in the past two years than the decade preceding. Dumb investors.
Do you collect it? I would sell that sucker and buy the 2022 version.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Unfortunately it appears I do collect it. But I generally don't drink it. The latest acquisition:
--Severian the Lame
in my lifetime, yes.
That kinda looks like David Bowie!
So after seeing your post I plan on collecting a bottle of Macallan every year. I currently collect mid tier stuff like the Woodford Reserve Kentucky Derby editions and similar.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Doesn’t that 💩ever get old ?
I lucked out with the MacAllan: It happened to be the last year the distillery indicated the year, in this case 1997, from which the 18-year aged whisky originated. Starting in 2017 and going forward there is no "vintage", just the age of the whisky when it was bottled. So as the experts say: Past performance is no indication of future gains.
Incidentally the painting isn't David Bowie. However it was painted by someone heavily influenced by him: Richard Butler of the Psychedelic Furs.
--Severian the Lame
Not if stored properly:
https://www.htfw.com/macallan-the-red-collection-75-year-old-whisky
--Severian the Lame
You should have a belt of that, otherwise bar eye candy for what...?
The 1987 Bunnahabhain is a surprise for my good friends in early September: Class of 1987 reunion
https://www.htfw.com/bunnahabhain-berry-bros-rudd-single-cask-2483-1987-28-year-old-whisky
--Severian the Lame
Yep.
Great info, thanks Weiss! I remember the Psychedelic Furs, that is a cool painting. How the hell did you obtain it, is he a friend of yours?
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
I mentioned above that I collect very selective coins, artwork, antiques, and liquor, in part because I'm a collector at heart and it's in my blood. In part because my parents were both artists. And in part because I like physical assets.
For many years I thought that artistic talent skipped a generation or two. In a home filled with art and artists, I thought I had zero talent. But I understood art--I grew up speaking the language. One day I found an article about the visual art one of my musical heroes, guitarist John Squire of Manchester, England's The Stone Roses. And I recalled seeing art by some of my other favorite musicians years before. So I inquired with John's representation in London and bought a piece of his. This is Fall, a 2' x 3' paint and woodblock on rough cut paper:
If you don't know Stone Roses, get ready for a revelation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWCuXy7RVZc
Little did I know, while I was in negotiations to purchase the piece, The Stone Roses were secretly reuniting after a very bitter split a decade earlier. The day the woodblock arrived, The Roses announced their reunion. The piece probably tripled in value that day.
Shortly after, I acquired artwork by Bauhaus/Love & Rockets guitarist Daniel Ash. Then singer Anja Huwe of Xmal Deutschland, then Bauhaus/Love & Rockets bassist David J. Then Psychedelic Furs lead singer Richard Butler, whose above piece RedDressAshWednesday is among my favorite. Many musicians began their journeys as visual artists.
A really nice perk of buying art from these heroes of my younger self is becoming friends with most of them.
Incidentally, I started pursuing photography 5 or 6 years ago and you'll never guess: I'm actually pretty good. My first piece was accepted into a regional art show last fall and has since sold multiple copies.
--Severian the Lame
@Weiss
You're the OG MetalPorn® creator, & I have enjoyed your Pictures and may have even drawn inspiration from them on occasion
No doubt, I am a novice on this topic, but I've been getting more interested in Whiskey / Bourbon this last year or two.
There is a huge world of vintage and high dollar bottles, yes, but my approach so far has been Local.
In my area, there are several local owned Grocery chains and wine warehouses. When the owner(s) gets invited to a brewery, and has a chance to sample and even select a specific Barrell, then we get a "local flavor" Select, Reserve, Cask Strength, or some other unique stave profile. I'll pick up an extra and sock it away - most probably for future trips down memory lane.
I think I have about a half dozen varieties currently and will continue to pick these up as found...
It's all about what the people want...