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US vs World Coins

Admittedly what follows contains a bit of generalization and I’m sure some will flag my question for being political, but here goes. In watching auction results and price guides, I’ve noticed that US coins trade at a pretty significant premium to world (or ancient coins). I appreciate that the bulk of global collectors and collector’s dollars are American and therefore are often attracted to American coins, but how might that hold up in a version of the future where American growth is slowing and our eastern, often Asian, neighbors play a larger role in the world economy? What impact might this have on U.S. coins’ investability as a collectible category? Does an arbitrage opportunity exist between U.S. and world coins? Lots of lofty, unanswerable questions contained here, but interested in seeking answers and appreciate folk’s willingness to share their views on the topic or outside resources / data / observations worth consulting.

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    yosclimberyosclimber Posts: 4,630 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I think you are saying that the number of collectors in a country positively affects demand for coins of that country,
    which I agree with.
    Most of this effect is already in place world wide.
    The main thing that has changed is that demand for coins of China has increased.
    The relative demand for other coins of the world has not changed much.

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    TurtleCatTurtleCat Posts: 4,595 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If I could predict the future that well, I’d have enough money to have bought the top pop of every category and then some.

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    MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,261 ✭✭✭✭✭

    WCC and cladking have had several discussions/debates about the likelihood of increasing world coin interest in the World & Ancient Coins Forum. You could try searching for them.

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    ElcontadorElcontador Posts: 7,455 ✭✭✭✭✭

    You can get strong money for some U.K. and Canadian coins.

    "Vou invadir o Nordeste,
    "Seu cabra da peste,
    "Sou Mangueira......."
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    jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 32,721 ✭✭✭✭✭

    You need look no farther than the run-up in Chinese coin prices with the rise of the Chinese middle and upper classes. My Tibetan collection is worth 10 or 20x what I paid for it 20 years ago. In a future where the U.S. is a smaller part of global GDP, you can expect the gap in prices between the US and some other countries to close.

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    jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 32,721 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 24, 2022 4:47AM

    @Elcontador said:
    You can get strong money for some U.K. and Canadian coins.

    You really need to grade all of these prices on a curve. Survivorship, for example, needs to be considered. An 18th century UK coin of similar survivorship to an 18th century American coin will generally trade at a significant discount. Even a larger gap for Canada. So while "you can get strong money for some UK coins" that is usually because their survivorship is significantly lower than their US counterparts.

    Edited to correct premium to discount.

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    JMoo100JMoo100 Posts: 112 ✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:
    You really need to grade all of these prices on a curve. Survivorship, for example, needs to be considered. An 18th century UK coin of similar survivorship to an 18th century American coin will generally trade at a significant premium. Even a larger gap for Canada. So while "you can get strong money for some UK coins" that is usually because their survivorship is significantly lower than their US counterparts.

    Given that so many US coins are now encapsulated by third party grading services, doesn’t that almost guarantee strong survivorship of US coins whereas (and this is an assumption) world coins are more likely to be found raw w/o the preservation provided by a slab.

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    Jzyskowski1Jzyskowski1 Posts: 6,650 ✭✭✭✭✭

    😉🦫🙀

    🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶

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    JMoo100JMoo100 Posts: 112 ✭✭
    edited May 23, 2022 9:08PM

    Thanks everyone!

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    bidaskbidask Posts: 13,942 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @Elcontador said:
    You can get strong money for some U.K. and Canadian coins.

    You really need to grade all of these prices on a curve. Survivorship, for example, needs to be considered. An 18th century UK coin of similar survivorship to an 18th century American coin will generally trade at a significant premium. Even a larger gap for Canada. So while "you can get strong money for some UK coins" that is usually because their survivorship is significantly lower than their US counterparts.

    Give me an example of a 18th century Great Britain coin trading at a significant premium of similar survivorship to an 18th century American coin ?

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




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    bidaskbidask Posts: 13,942 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @JMoo100 said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    You really need to grade all of these prices on a curve. Survivorship, for example, needs to be considered. An 18th century UK coin of similar survivorship to an 18th century American coin will generally trade at a significant premium. Even a larger gap for Canada. So while "you can get strong money for some UK coins" that is usually because their survivorship is significantly lower than their US counterparts.

    Given that so many US coins are now encapsulated by third party grading services, doesn’t that almost guarantee strong survivorship of US coins whereas (and this is an assumption) world coins are more likely to be found raw w/o the preservation provided by a slab.

    Slabs don’t guarantee survivorship ?

    Plenty of raw world coinage has survived the centuries . Just look ancients .

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




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    bidaskbidask Posts: 13,942 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @yosclimber said:
    I think you are saying that the number of collectors in a country positively affects demand for coins of that country,
    which I agree with.
    Most of this effect is already in place world wide.
    The main thing that has changed is that demand for coins of China has increased.
    The relative demand for other coins of the world has not changed much.

    Nice classic condition census Latin and Central American coinage including Mexico has done very well

    Especially crowns !

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




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    jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 32,721 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @JMoo100 said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    You really need to grade all of these prices on a curve. Survivorship, for example, needs to be considered. An 18th century UK coin of similar survivorship to an 18th century American coin will generally trade at a significant premium. Even a larger gap for Canada. So while "you can get strong money for some UK coins" that is usually because their survivorship is significantly lower than their US counterparts.

    Given that so many US coins are now encapsulated by third party grading services, doesn’t that almost guarantee strong survivorship of US coins whereas (and this is an assumption) world coins are more likely to be found raw w/o the preservation provided by a slab.

    I don't think that is really affecting the population of 18th and 19th century coins. They aren't still circulating.

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    jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 32,721 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bidask said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @Elcontador said:
    You can get strong money for some U.K. and Canadian coins.

    You really need to grade all of these prices on a curve. Survivorship, for example, needs to be considered. An 18th century UK coin of similar survivorship to an 18th century American coin will generally trade at a significant premium. Even a larger gap for Canada. So while "you can get strong money for some UK coins" that is usually because their survivorship is significantly lower than their US counterparts.

    Give me an example of a 18th century Great Britain coin trading at a significant premium of similar survivorship to an 18th century American coin ?

    Sorry, I meant it the other way around. The US coin has a higher premium than every country I can think of, often orders of magnitude.

    I corrected the post. Thanks

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    rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I have only purchased a few 'world' coins.... And then because the theme or art attracted me. They were not expensive and I do not consider them an investment. That being said, I have on occasion perused some world coin offerings. While there are certainly expensive coins, they do not seem to reach the lofty ranges of early American coins. Admittedly, I have not done in-depth research, so perhaps my limited exposure is not fully representative. Cheers, RickO

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    Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,779 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 25, 2022 10:40AM

    I acquire low pop world coins on a regular basis. Mexico is main area of interest. They are a super deal vs US IMV.

    I have one top pop Mexico coin PCGS65 pop 2/0 2nd Republic silver coin. This material was never really saved based on convo with different specialists. People needed spend it to eat. They are grossly under valued vs US. Wont take less than $2000+ for it (picked from auc for $160). Have picked them off here and there. This is less than generic US $ with their pop in thousands promoted up to their current value. At a recent show sold a MS 64 similar NGC piece single digit pop picked off auc for $450 (less than premium on CAC Saints).

    I have many world slabbed issues picked off for what 2 people would spend for going out for dinner. One guy who was a tire kicker on some of my raw stuff noticed he was giving NGC low pop Mexico silver coins away on the the Bay starting at $9.99. Picked almost all of them them off w nuclear bids for chump change then put in retail inventory marked up. After his were gone that was it. Can’t find any more.

    Here I regularly see people paying 3x MV for stickered coins like one coin CF $3k brought $9k I believe. Well good for them then. They have their area of interest, I have mine.

    These days for US buying slabbed mod Commems & Bullion. One guy at recent shows picked up 7 NGC 69 mod commem silver dollars at $35 each (about slab cost) from walkup seller. While this a little more than CPG about 1/3 of what MS 63 generic Morgan’s trade for. Works for me!

    Currently Sold out of US Classic coins except raw collector coins for shows like G/VG Barber 50c priced around $25 -to $30. No plans replace slabbed US Classic at current level and WILL NOT PAY some huge sticker premium.

    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
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    JBKJBK Posts: 15,035 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @JMoo100 said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    You really need to grade all of these prices on a curve. Survivorship, for example, needs to be considered. An 18th century UK coin of similar survivorship to an 18th century American coin will generally trade at a significant premium. Even a larger gap for Canada. So while "you can get strong money for some UK coins" that is usually because their survivorship is significantly lower than their US counterparts.

    Given that so many US coins are now encapsulated by third party grading services, doesn’t that almost guarantee strong survivorship of US coins whereas (and this is an assumption) world coins are more likely to be found raw w/o the preservation provided by a slab.

    "Raw" does not necessarily mean unprotected. I have lots of coins in 2x2s, flips, and a few in Plexiglas Capitol holders.

    If coins are valued they will (hopefully) be in holders of some kind.

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    Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,779 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The much lower pop of world coins imo is many did not survive to be slab worthy. This in consultation with many specialists in the field coupled with the fact coins have been getting slabbed for 36 years.

    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
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    WCCWCC Posts: 2,486 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Late to this thread but here are my thoughts:

    1) There is no unified world coin market. World coinage is itself a US centric term which describes how US collectors collect somewhat but not how those from elsewhere do.

    2) Most world coins aren't "investable" due to the lack of scale caused by the lack of interest or (very) limited supply. The US is a very unique collector market due to a combination of factors which financially in my opinion, Australia comes closest to replicating but a distant second. Maybe China and India have the potential for a similar financial profile (at a noticeably lower financial scale versus the US) but don't think any others.

    3) Contrary to what many think, current demand for world coinage in the home country isn't really a function of relative affluence. An above post uses China as an example where the collective value of all "investment" eligible coinage is a tiny fraction of household net worth, even if the population was far poorer. Increasing wealth is correlated to higher prices but no amount of money will make someone want to become a collector.

    4) I've seen it increase for the higher quality coinage but to my knowledge, most collectors outside the US don't prefer TPG.

    5) It's a lot less evident in most non-US coinage, but the price level is still partly a side consequence of the global asset and credit mania. That's the source for much of the increased "wealth" (which is mostly fake from credit expansion and "printing") for higher prices since TPG significantly increased the financialization of collecting starting in the late 80's. A reversal of the mania (a guaranteed event "eventually") will likely have a significant negative impact on prices.

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    RondorRondor Posts: 116 ✭✭✭
    edited June 12, 2022 6:29PM

    <------------30 years of business experience in Hong Kong then China.

    1. Chinese people love gold and silver, always have.
    2. Chinese people are very interested in their own history and cherish it deeply.
    3. Having the very best and most expensive version of a rare item has an extremely strong attraction to Chinese people. Someone's ability to drive prices higher would be a sign of power and thus, respected highly.
    4. One could only wish 2 or more wealthy Chinese were bidding on their rare coins. The records would be demolished.

    Just my $0.02 (One EAC and One Indian)

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    WCCWCC Posts: 2,486 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Cougar1978 said:
    The much lower pop of world coins imo is many did not survive to be slab worthy. This in consultation with many specialists in the field coupled with the fact coins have been getting slabbed for 36 years.

    What is your definition of "many"?

    It's a lot lower in absolute numbers versus the US due to the usually much lower mintages and limited if any collecting, both now and previously.

    Concurrently, the actual supply for most world coins is usually going to be a noticeable to very large multiple from current counts even in the higher grades. It's primarily a function of the much lower price level where the coins aren't financially worth grading. Secondly, the low preference for TPG among most non-US collectors.

    Take a look at South Africa Union. It's usually likely scarcer than (near) contemporary coinage from other countries with anything close to comparable mintages due to limited collecting and mass melting. The counts, though still very low by US standards, have increased a lot over the years and it's because it's mostly collected in South Africa and these collectors prefer TPG.

    Even if the counts were mostly complete, there is virtually no prospect of replicating the US price level and price structure, only in isolation.

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    amwldcoinamwldcoin Posts: 11,269 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 12, 2022 7:11PM

    @WCC said:

    @Cougar1978 said:
    The much lower pop of world coins imo is many did not survive to be slab worthy. This in consultation with many specialists in the field coupled with the fact coins have been getting slabbed for 36 years.

    What is your definition of "many"?

    It's a lot lower in absolute numbers versus the US due to the usually much lower mintages and limited if any collecting, both now and previously.

    Concurrently, the actual supply for most world coins is usually going to be a noticeable to very large multiple from current counts even in the higher grades. It's primarily a function of the much lower price level where the coins aren't financially worth grading. Secondly, the low preference for TPG among most non-US collectors.

    Take a look at South Africa Union. It's usually likely scarcer than (near) contemporary coinage from other countries with anything close to comparable mintages due to limited collecting and mass melting. The counts, though still very low by US standards, have increased a lot over the years and it's because it's mostly collected in South Africa and these collectors prefer TPG.

    Even if the counts were mostly complete, there is virtually no prospect of replicating the US price level and price structure, only in isolation.

    Dude! I can't go into details right now but many of your points are just plain wrong! I made a fortune from collecting world coins, and would have doubled that if I had just waited a bit longer before I sold!

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    jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 32,721 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @WCC said:
    Late to this thread but here are my thoughts:

    1) There is no unified world coin market. World coinage is itself a US centric term which describes how US collectors collect somewhat but not how those from elsewhere do.

    2) Most world coins aren't "investable" due to the lack of scale caused by the lack of interest or (very) limited supply. The US is a very unique collector market due to a combination of factors which financially in my opinion, Australia comes closest to replicating but a distant second. Maybe China and India have the potential for a similar financial profile (at a noticeably lower financial scale versus the US) but don't think any others.

    3) Contrary to what many think, current demand for world coinage in the home country isn't really a function of relative affluence. An above post uses China as an example where the collective value of all "investment" eligible coinage is a tiny fraction of household net worth, even if the population was far poorer. Increasing wealth is correlated to higher prices but no amount of money will make someone want to become a collector.

    4) I've seen it increase for the higher quality coinage but to my knowledge, most collectors outside the US don't prefer TPG.

    5) It's a lot less evident in most non-US coinage, but the price level is still partly a side consequence of the global asset and credit mania. That's the source for much of the increased "wealth" (which is mostly fake from credit expansion and "printing") for higher prices since TPG significantly increased the financialization of collecting starting in the late 80's. A reversal of the mania (a guaranteed event "eventually") will likely have a significant negative impact on prices.

    I strongly disagree with several of these points. The UK and Germany, among others, have highly developed coin markets.

    The move in Chinese prices correlates with the increase in the Chinese middle class. While you may not call that a direct link, it is a link. The same thing happened in the US during the industrial revolution. It is a combination of leisure time causing a rise in hobbies as well as disposable income to fund those hobbies.

    I do agree with #5 and I think people should be cautious at this time.

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    RexfordRexford Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Cougar1978 said:
    The much lower pop of world coins imo is many did not survive to be slab worthy. This in consultation with many specialists in the field coupled with the fact coins have been getting slabbed for 36 years.

    That’s definitely not true. There are tons of nice and expensive raw world coins out there. Remember that slabbing has historically been a method of collecting primarily in the US, where the top TPGs are located. Many if not most European collectors still prefer to collect raw coins.

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    rec78rec78 Posts: 5,701 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 13, 2022 1:06AM

    @Rexford said:

    "Many if not most European collectors still prefer to collect raw coins."

    I still prefer to collect raw coins. I have collected coins in folders and albums since my early collecting days.
    (1958) And have broken many coins out of caches (known today as slabs), to put in my albums.

    image
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    jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 32,721 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @rec78 said:

    @Rexford said:

    "Many if not most European collectors still prefer to collect raw coins."

    I still prefer to collect raw coins. I have collected coins in folders and albums since my early collecting days.
    (1958) And have broken many coins out of caches (known today as slabs), to put in my albums.

    MOST US collectors collect raw. This forum is the exception not the rule. The majority of collections have no slabs in them. Heck, the majority of collections have very few $40 coins much less coins in $40 coffins.

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    GazesGazes Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭

    For decades people have pushed international stocks using a variety of narratives that they have more room to grow than the mature US economy. For decades the US stocks have been the place to be. Even Warren Buffet has largely stuck with US stocks and he is a value investor. In my opinion US coins are very similar and expect they will always out perform World coins regardless of the latest narrative.

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    WCCWCC Posts: 2,486 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @amwldcoin said:

    @WCC said:

    @Cougar1978 said:
    The much lower pop of world coins imo is many did not survive to be slab worthy. This in consultation with many specialists in the field coupled with the fact coins have been getting slabbed for 36 years.

    What is your definition of "many"?

    It's a lot lower in absolute numbers versus the US due to the usually much lower mintages and limited if any collecting, both now and previously.

    Concurrently, the actual supply for most world coins is usually going to be a noticeable to very large multiple from current counts even in the higher grades. It's primarily a function of the much lower price level where the coins aren't financially worth grading. Secondly, the low preference for TPG among most non-US collectors.

    Take a look at South Africa Union. It's usually likely scarcer than (near) contemporary coinage from other countries with anything close to comparable mintages due to limited collecting and mass melting. The counts, though still very low by US standards, have increased a lot over the years and it's because it's mostly collected in South Africa and these collectors prefer TPG.

    Even if the counts were mostly complete, there is virtually no prospect of replicating the US price level and price structure, only in isolation.

    Dude! I can't go into details right now but many of your points are just plain wrong! I made a fortune from collecting world coins, and would have doubled that if I had just waited a bit longer before I sold!

    I can get into as many details as you like. Anecdotal experience which doesn't disprove a thing I said. So did I. So what?

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    WCCWCC Posts: 2,486 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Gazes said:
    For decades people have pushed international stocks using a variety of narratives that they have more room to grow than the mature US economy. For decades the US stocks have been the place to be. Even Warren Buffet has largely stuck with US stocks and he is a value investor. In my opinion US coins are very similar and expect they will always out perform World coins regardless of the latest narrative.

    US collecting has a unique combination of factors which other countries lack mostly or entirely. The above post challenged my assertions, but someone's anecdotal experience doesn't contradict anything I said.

    Here is a simplified version of my position.

    If you are a US collector, there is a huge variety to collect from due to the design variety and due to the extended history of collecting, the supply is available for most collectors to collect by type or series in a quality they want at a price they can afford. There is also plenty of reference material and an active market which is a lot more liquid, though illiquid versus mainstream assets. It's what I call the numismatic "infrastructure".

    In most countries, little if any of this exists. Limited to no tradition of collecting which means that the supply, even though usually common by my standards, is a lot lower and the quality isn't equivalent either. Outside of a low number of countries (mostly in Europe), few if any dealers, auction firms, coin clubs, publications or books...nothing.

    This is important because, lacking adequate supply and quality distribution, there can be no meaningful scale, even assuming the local population is interested in collecting which they overwhelmingly are not.

    In Europe, the opposite problem exists, there are too many coins (even in better grades) for any realistic collector base to absorb at much higher prices. This doesn't apply to every single coin but does to most. Their collecting also hasn't been financialized like it has in the US and a few others.

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    WCCWCC Posts: 2,486 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    I strongly disagree with several of these points. The UK and Germany, among others, have highly developed coin markets.

    I never said they did not. I know these two countries do. I'd have to write a book to be specific.

    @jmlanzaf said:

    The move in Chinese prices correlates with the increase in the Chinese middle class. While you may not call that a direct link, it is a link. The same thing happened in the US during the industrial revolution. It is a combination of leisure time causing a rise in hobbies as well as disposable income to fund those hobbies.

    Correlation is not causation. It's a necessary precondition but no amount of money will turn a non-collector into a real collector, only a "widget" buyer. The difference between China and most of the world is that China does (or appears) to have a tradition of collecting in other areas, whether they previously collected coinage or not.

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    jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 32,721 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Gazes said:
    For decades people have pushed international stocks using a variety of narratives that they have more room to grow than the mature US economy. For decades the US stocks have been the place to be. Even Warren Buffet has largely stuck with US stocks and he is a value investor. In my opinion US coins are very similar and expect they will always out perform World coins regardless of the latest narrative.

    BRIC

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    jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 32,721 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MrEureka said:

    @WCC said:

    @Gazes said:
    For decades people have pushed international stocks using a variety of narratives that they have more room to grow than the mature US economy. For decades the US stocks have been the place to be. Even Warren Buffet has largely stuck with US stocks and he is a value investor. In my opinion US coins are very similar and expect they will always out perform World coins regardless of the latest narrative.

    US collecting has a unique combination of factors which other countries lack mostly or entirely. The above post challenged my assertions, but someone's anecdotal experience doesn't contradict anything I said.

    Here is a simplified version of my position.

    In most countries, little if any of this exists. Limited to no tradition of collecting which means that the supply, even though usually common by my standards, is a lot lower and the quality isn't equivalent either. Outside of a low number of countries (mostly in Europe), few if any dealers, auction firms, coin clubs, publications or books...nothing.

    This is important because, lacking adequate supply and quality distribution, there can be no meaningful scale, even assuming the local population is interested in collecting which they overwhelmingly are not.

    In Europe, the opposite problem exists, there are too many coins (even in better grades) for any realistic collector base to absorb at much higher prices. This doesn't apply to every single coin but does to most.

    I think you underestimate the collector base in most of the world and vastly overestimate the supply of coins. I also think that there are many markets throughout the world with huge upside potential. Especially when you consider that the world is becoming a much smaller place, and even a schoolboy in Montevideo can viably pursue a collection of Medieval Lithuanian if he has an internet connection and a PayPal account.

    Clearly, he expresses an Amerocentric view. There are vibrant collecting histories in many European countries. In fact, you could argue that modern coin collecting started in Renaissance Italy. The British Commonwealth has a well developed market with 2500 years of history to collect. The Germanic countries are vibrant collectors. Japan has a well developed historic market.

    Recently, China got very hot and the collector base their boomed. I've seen increased interest in India and Mexico. Russia booked for a while though it has cooled recently.

    Put it all together and you have historic, well developed collector bases in the developed wealthier countries (Europe and the British Commonwealth, the US, and Japan) and you have nascent collector bases in the BRIC counties and Mexico.

    It needs a new thread, but if I were going to "invest" in coins (and I wouldn't) it would be outside the US. There are some tremendous rarities that are still inexpensive by US standards.

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    53BKid53BKid Posts: 2,173 ✭✭✭

    Iconic figures, e.g., George III, Napoleon, Nicholas II, etc. all trade at relatively healthy premiums. They're appealing to a wide range of collectors, especially gold. From the prices I've observed, it doesn't seem like much of an arbitrage to be found. Others disagree?

    HAPPY COLLECTING!!!
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    Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,779 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 13, 2022 5:46PM

    Low pop slab world coins doing well for me. Tremendous interest in Mexico. These coins are a super deal vs US. Picked up some slabbed MS 63-64 50 Peso Gold Mexico Pesos so cheap / scarcer vs US.

    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
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    Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,779 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 13, 2022 6:17PM

    @WCC said:
    Late to this thread but here are my thoughts:

    1) There is no unified world coin market. World coinage is itself a US centric term which describes how US collectors collect somewhat but not how those from elsewhere do.

    2) Most world coins aren't "investable" due to the lack of scale caused by the lack of interest or (very) limited supply. The US is a very unique collector market due to a combination of factors which financially in my opinion, Australia comes closest to replicating but a distant second. Maybe China and India have the potential for a similar financial profile (at a noticeably lower financial scale versus the US) but don't think any others.

    3) Contrary to what many think, current demand for world coinage in the home country isn't really a function of relative affluence. An above post uses China as an example where the collective value of all "investment" eligible coinage is a tiny fraction of household net worth, even if the population was far poorer. Increasing wealth is correlated to higher prices but no amount of money will make someone want to become a collector.

    4) I've seen it increase for the higher quality coinage but to my knowledge, most collectors outside the US don't prefer TPG.

    5) It's a lot less evident in most non-US coinage, but the price level is still partly a side consequence of the global asset and credit mania. That's the source for much of the increased "wealth" (which is mostly fake from credit expansion and "printing") for higher prices since TPG significantly increased the financialization of collecting starting in the late 80's. A reversal of the mania (a guaranteed event "eventually") will likely have a significant negative impact on prices.

    Strongly disagree with this. Your not a player in the world market are you? Many US collectors like deer in headlights. Slabbed low pop world coins very scarce and a fantastic buy. Many US collectors ignorant of opportunity in the world arena like deer in the headlights. Many I buy for what it costs 2 people go out for dinner then realize cost x 2 (keystone markup) on bourse.

    I recently got $450 at show for Mexico single digit pop 1900 silver coin I picked up for $65 from non eBay online auction. Certainly a super deal for the buyer. Look at the outrageous premiums paid on US coins bc of sticker. A scarce Rhodesia banknote I got $350 for (and this discounted below Krause CV) picked up at auc for $26. Yes go ahead and bid up your US coins like that guy pd $11000 for $3500 US stickered coin.

    Except for slabbed bullion material / mod Commems sold off most my US. No plan replace it. I do have some G/VG Barber 50 c in my collector coin binder in 2x2 abt $25 each, super deal.

    World coins super investment and have great potential. As far as your comment “no world market” I have to rofl. No it’s not something the big gun US players can control it’s just a REAL market.

    At a recent show recently discussed my price of $2500 on a Mexico second republic 19th century 20c PCGS 65 pop 2/0 with world expert I have known for years. Can’t find any on eBay or anywhere even raw Uncs is my price too high? He said “NO not too high or too low these were spent by people needed money to eat not saved like generic Morgan dollars with their huge 10,000 plus pops.”

    I also sell a lot of raw world coins nice BU many silver in $20 to $50 range. Most coming in bourse room collect what they can afford $50 and under. Only here does one hear term widgets.

    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
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    IKUIKU Posts: 65 ✭✭✭
    edited June 14, 2022 4:46AM

    Yes true world coins do not have such rock solid and heavily cataloged in both printed and online values as US coins. For example no one evaluates euro coins values from 5cent to 2euro yearly.

    There is no serious yearly Red Book of world coins like euro coins.
    Because values are missing nobody cares about world coins.

    PCGS or NGC do not show values to euro coins.
    We need "Heritage auction 1970"-method to bring more value to euro coins.

    Majority of US coin collectors now would quit collecting US coins if no values would be documented in such intensity as it is today. Blind values would hurt a lot US coin market.

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    GazesGazes Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @Gazes said:
    For decades people have pushed international stocks using a variety of narratives that they have more room to grow than the mature US economy. For decades the US stocks have been the place to be. Even Warren Buffet has largely stuck with US stocks and he is a value investor. In my opinion US coins are very similar and expect they will always out perform World coins regardless of the latest narrative.

    BRIC

    Brazil, Russia, India and China? Hmmmmm i will stick with the US economy and coins

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    jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 32,721 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @IKU said:
    Yes true world coins do not have such rock solid and heavily cataloged in both printed and online values as US coins. For example no one evaluates euro coins values from 5cent to 2euro yearly.

    There is no serious yearly Red Book of world coins like euro coins.
    Because values are missing nobody cares about world coins.

    PCGS or NGC do not show values to euro coins.
    We need "Heritage auction 1970"-method to bring more value to euro coins.

    Majority of US coin collectors now would quit collecting US coins if no values would be documented in such intensity as it is today. Blind values would hurt a lot US coin market.

    Disagree completely.

    The values in the Red Book are fiction. The Krause world catalogue has values for every country on the globe and is no less accurate than the Red Book.

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    IKUIKU Posts: 65 ✭✭✭

    "The values in the Red Book are fiction."

    • Still it is very hard to find a U.S coin that is not in the price range told in either: recent Red books or PCGS's online value guide.
    • When buying I have been always forced to buy at list price+some premium added. Never succeeded buying lower than list price. So I buy only sharp strikes and best eye appeal.

    Every seller knows them and prices are according to them.

    Krause catalog is so massive and it is not accurate example for euro coins (1999- onward). Some Krause values are kind of funny for smaller countries not nowhere solid as U.S coins.

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    Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,779 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 15, 2022 6:32AM

    As far as some debate about CV not a factor for me. At the very least Cost plus would trump that for me anyway. Price guides are just that a guide published at that point in time.

    I have many slabbed world coins where pricing (KRS CV) is not above MS60. So a PCGS MS65 piece (worth much more) with a pop of just 2 for me it comes down to cost plus or more likely some much higher amount based on my evaluation / experience. What I like is I have the only one in the bourse room. I have many slabbed world coins that are top pop, single digit pop or finest known. So it’s my stadium, my team and we are going out there to win.

    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
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    neildrobertsonneildrobertson Posts: 1,190 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 15, 2022 3:10PM

    @Cougar1978 said:
    World coins super investment and have great potential. As far as your comment “no world market” I have to rofl. No it’s not something the big gun US players can control it’s just a REAL market.

    At a recent show recently discussed my price of $2500 on a Mexico second republic 19th century 20c PCGS 65 pop 2/0 with world expert I have known for years. Can’t find any on eBay or anywhere even raw Uncs is my price too high? He said “NO not too high or too low these were spent by people needed money to eat not saved like generic Morgan dollars with their huge 10,000 plus pops.”

    I also sell a lot of raw world coins nice BU many silver in $20 to $50 range. Most coming in bourse room collect what they can afford $50 and under. Only here does one hear term widgets.

    He's right about world markets being smaller. I play in the German coin market around 80-90% of the time. And the scale is significantly different. A single roll of most German coins minted in the last 150 years hitting the market in a 6 month period is enough to dramatically lower market prices. You can dump a full roll of most US coins from the last 150 years, and the market will absorb it with little to no change in pricing (directly resulting from the sale of that roll). There are US coins with populations low enough that a roll will have a measurable impact, but the number of coins in collector circulation and number of collectors is much lower in world coins.

    The converse is also true. It only takes a handful of active collectors for a series to start to drive prices up.

    While there are tons of countries and coins to collect, it's comparatively a much wider and more shallow pool. Not all investment models scale well. If you find there is a huge gap in pricing between France and US for a couple types of coins. You can buy all 10 of the coins that come up for market that year, and then you are done.

    The Mexican market can't support the same number of dealers as US even though you recognize there are opportunities to make money. That doesn't mean the market is large. It just means it hasn't hit its saturation for dealers.

    Because each respective area of world coin collecting is smaller, there is often less pricing data available. And there is more variability in prices realized. This is true of most "thin" markets and can give a saavy individual opportunities to profit.

    There is no shortage of rare world coins. That's part of what I like about being a world coin collector. I can hunt for difficult coins and try to push the limits of the collective numismatic knowledge base for a price that is achievable for many Americans. If I took that same money to US coins, then I would be trading in "common" coins that are well documented, easily found, and easily replaced. One benefit of that is that my US collectionwould be much more liquid and easily valued.

    There is a coin I have been looking for for 5 years. When I find it, I expect to pay under $100 for it. Odds are I'll be the only one that cares about it when it comes up for sale. I will also be the only one that cares when it comes time to sell...

    IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
    "Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me

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    neildrobertsonneildrobertson Posts: 1,190 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:
    Disagree completely.

    The values in the Red Book are fiction. The Krause world catalogue has values for every country on the globe and is no less accurate than the Red Book.

    Red Book is a much better managed reference than Krause world coin books. So many Krause values haven't been updated in >10 years even though there has been real market movement. They don't have the critical mass of volunteers and contributors required to keep updating everything. It's unfortunate, and I don't know if anyone will come in to fill the hole that's been created in this space.

    IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
    "Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me

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    MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,261 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BillJones said:
    Sorry, but CAC has taken most of the fun out of the U.S. market for me. When I see a CAC sticker on a Proof coin I need, I know that the price will be beyond retail and virtually all auction results.

    If you buy coins without CAC stickers, you can avoid this problem.

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    jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 32,721 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 15, 2022 6:49PM

    @neildrobertson said:

    @jmlanzaf said:
    Disagree completely.

    The values in the Red Book are fiction. The Krause world catalogue has values for every country on the globe and is no less accurate than the Red Book.

    Red Book is a much better managed reference than Krause world coin books. So many Krause values haven't been updated in >10 years even though there has been real market movement. They don't have the critical mass of volunteers and contributors required to keep updating everything. It's unfortunate, and I don't know if anyone will come in to fill the hole that's been created in this space.

    There are gaps in data for Krause without a doubt. But the only thing anyone prices out of red book are ultra moderns and those prices are quesswork anyway.

    There is more US data. In part this is because there is more limited offerings. But there are world price guides, flawed as they are, including NGC’s. But I simply do not think this is limiting world collecting.

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    neildrobertsonneildrobertson Posts: 1,190 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    There is now US data. In part this is because there is more limited offerings. But there are world price guides, flawed as they are, including NGC’s. But I simply do not think this is limiting world collecting.

    It doesn't put a big damper on my collecting. It has inhibited me from being able to buy coins I collect that are overpriced in Krause world coins. There is a large number of dealers that price based off of it. I ultimately end up only being a ble to buy series from those dealers that are priced close to correctly in Krause. Everything overpriced in Krause just sits. I can tell if I'm looking at a dealer like this fairly quickly by seeing what types of coins have been sitting in inventory a while. Since I get most of my coins from people that primarily focus on world coins, this is more frustrating than it is an actual problem.

    IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
    "Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me

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    BillJonesBillJones Posts: 33,627 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MasonG said:

    @BillJones said:
    Sorry, but CAC has taken most of the fun out of the U.S. market for me. When I see a CAC sticker on a Proof coin I need, I know that the price will be beyond retail and virtually all auction results.

    If you buy coins without CAC stickers, you can avoid this problem.

    Quite true, but buying Proof coins from pictures is a bear. Some of the photos are so dark you can’t see anything. Others look Brown for a cent that is graded red. It seems like some dealers are lazy and only post crappy photos.

    I’ve bought Proof coins with and without CAC stickers at shows and on the Web and have been very pleased with them. I’ll buy a CAC approved coin if the price is fair.

    The trouble is when you take a coin, like a Proof Mercury Dime from the 40s that worth around $200. After dealer had paid for the CAC sticker plus the postage both ways, they want $250 for a coin that is $225 on “Coin Facts” and has consistently sold for under $200 in the auctions. It just gets ridiculous.

    The CAC people will say, “Why don’t you throw $25 away for the sticker? It’s worth it.”

    Not to me.

    Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
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    MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,261 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BillJones said:
    The trouble is when you take a coin, like a Proof Mercury Dime from the 40s that worth around $200. After dealer had paid for the CAC sticker plus the postage both ways, they want $250 for a coin that is $225 on “Coin Facts” and has consistently sold for under $200 in the auctions. It just gets ridiculous.

    Your sigfile says "retired dealer". Did you ever have a potential buyer who passed on a coin because it was priced higher than he wanted to pay?

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