The human factor in grading sequences

logger7

I've heard submitters say that if you send in a bunch of lustrous gemmy coins of the same category you are more likely to get better grades. Others have said that the sequence of how coins are looked at on the invoice can influence the ultimate grades.

For example, you send in a group of $5 Indians. You have a group of "liner" coins that are mixed in with some lock but low end MS63 issues for example. So the graders look at the low end 63s with some very high end 63s and the human reasoning is "wow, we can't call that a 63 with that eye appeal, etc., will have to 64 it". In coins with significant increases in the next higher grade the incentive is strong to try to get upgrades.

Also I was thinking about the human factor with finalizers or those who make the final decision on an invoice submission. The grading service does not want to send the coins back with all disappointing results so you would think that they would throw a bone or two to the customer to keep them happy and coming back.

alaura22

Interesting read........

MasonG

Or maybe they just grade the coins?

FlyingAl

I believe @DelawareDoons said he used this strategy to get high grades (67-8). Send in six or so coins ordered 63-64-65-65-66-67 and you can use it to your advantage. Using the reasoning that each is slightly better than the other, I think he said it worked. I've never tried it.

MasonG

@logger7 said:
For example, you send in a group of $5 Indians. You have a group of "liner" coins that are mixed in with some lock but low end MS63 issues for example. So the graders look at the low end 63s with some very high end 63s and the human reasoning is "wow, we can't call that a 63 with that eye appeal, etc., will have to 64 it".

Or they still call the nicer one a 63 and go back and lower the earlier ones from 63 to 62.

lermish

@logger7 said:
I've heard submitters say that if you send in a bunch of lustrous gemmy coins of the same category you are more likely to get better grades.

I hope so. I have a 42 coin order in, my largest ever BY FAR, all classic commemoratives. I am, to my mind, a poor grader, but some of them have the possibility of being at or near top pop. In a series where top pop can bring $5-20k and the next grade down is a 90% drop, I'm hoping that my superstars bring up the average.

@MasonG said:

Or they still call the nicer one a 63 and go back and lower the earlier ones from 63 to 62.

...but of course this is my (unreasonable?) fear and expectation.

MasonG

People say they want conservative grading. And they also say they want to get the highest grade they can, even if it comes through an attempt to manipulate (unconsciously) the graders. Can't have both.

moursund

@MasonG said:
People say they want conservative grading. And they also say they want to get the highest grade they can, even if it comes through an attempt to manipulate (unconsciously) the graders. Can't have both.

But how many people would be angry if their coin graded higher than expected. "Are you MAD?!? How could you call this a 65?!? This is NOT A GEM!!!". Resubmit for an accurate (lower) grade...

DelawareDoons

@lermish said:

@logger7 said:
I've heard submitters say that if you send in a bunch of lustrous gemmy coins of the same category you are more likely to get better grades.

I hope so. I have a 42 coin order in, my largest ever BY FAR, all classic commemoratives. I am, to my mind, a poor grader, but some of them have the possibility of being at or near top pop. In a series where top pop can bring $5-20k and the next grade down is a 90% drop, I'm hoping that my superstars bring up the average.

@MasonG said:

Or they still call the nicer one a 63 and go back and lower the earlier ones from 63 to 62.

...but of course this is my (unreasonable?) fear and expectation.

Wait, are these a part of those coins?

https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1073444/gtg-x-6-commemorative-edition#latest

You aren't making any top pops if so.

coinbuf

From what I have heard, read, and seen in the past there are a few "tricks" that can help in some cases.

lermish

@DelawareDoons said:

@lermish said:

@logger7 said:
I've heard submitters say that if you send in a bunch of lustrous gemmy coins of the same category you are more likely to get better grades.

I hope so. I have a 42 coin order in, my largest ever BY FAR, all classic commemoratives. I am, to my mind, a poor grader, but some of them have the possibility of being at or near top pop. In a series where top pop can bring $5-20k and the next grade down is a 90% drop, I'm hoping that my superstars bring up the average.

@MasonG said:

Or they still call the nicer one a 63 and go back and lower the earlier ones from 63 to 62.

...but of course this is my (unreasonable?) fear and expectation.

Wait, are these a part of those coins?

https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1073444/gtg-x-6-commemorative-edition#latest

You aren't making any top pops if so.

Nope. I'm hoping for 65's out of those and probably a details on the Columbus but not holding my breath.

I haven't made any posts because there's no point yet; I won't have grades back for at least a few weeks more if not longer. They've been in grading since 4/14.

lermish

Most of the raw pictures I took are almost unusable because of really poor lighting in my office. I'm very clumsy and didn't want to take any chances fooling around with raw coins and dropping one. This picture is okay it should hopefully give an idea. I think it's a lock 66 but has a chance to go higher. And legitimately eight of the 42 have similar chances (by my best guess, which again admittedly is worse than average)

BryceM

If you have an MS65 coin and you want to get it in an MS65+ holder there's a theoretical method....

If you submit the target coin for regrade along with a couple of ugly coins in MS65 holders and a not-so-nice coin in an MS65+ or MS66 holder, there's a pretty good chance the 65 will upgrade. As said, graders are human, and when you make it easy for them to "do the right thing" it sometimes works. However, there are a bunch of potential problems and issues with this.

• The coin you are trying to upgrade needs to be pretty darn nice.
• Sometimes it takes a few tries.
• Sometimes it depends on the particular graders in the room that day.
• The coins you are using as "setup" coins can't have blatant issues.
• You have to pay regrade fees for all of the coins involved, even when it doesn't work.
• You actually need to own or have access to all of the coins in play.
• The exercise only makes sense when the difference in value is much larger than the grading fees.
• All of the coins will be out of your possession for as long as it takes. Show grading or walkthrough grading is faster, but the fees are also higher.
• The more expensive the coin, the more scrutiny it gets. The grade guarantee is a liability to the grading companies and they pay attention to mistakes that hurt the bottom line.
• Just because it's in a holder at a higher grade doesn't mean it's worth more or that it will sell for more. Believe it or not, many people who spend a lot of money on coins actually look at them and actually know what they're doing. "Barely-there" MS65+ coins will often sell close to MS65 money and really stellar MS65 coins will often sell close to 65+ money. This can eat into your "paper" wins.
• Registry players who will do anything for a small upgrade have the most to gain with this game.
• Sometimes it's a smart play to get an MS65 coin in the holder of one TPG into an MS65 holder at a different TPG.
• In your collecting and "investing" endeavors, be aware that there are people and organizations with tons of money, access to tons of coins, exceptional grading skills, and they're playing this arbitrage game whenever and wherever it makes them money to do so. You too can win at the game, but the competition can be pretty savvy. Probably it was easier to do this when TPG grading was in its early days. Some folks make a living perusing thousands of auction lots just looking for upgrade, crackout, regrade, doctoring, sticker, and quick-flip candidates.
• Sometimes the ugly coins upgrade and the "target" coin doesn't.
• Sometimes it's more fun to just be a hobbyist and focus more on the coin than the label.

I've often wondered if it would be fun to acquire a really, really nice 1925-S Peace dollar in MS64+ ($1,750) and crack it out and send it in a dozen times to try for an MS65 ($28,500). The hardest part of this is finding a really nice MS64+ that is nice enough to make it worth a try. The value difference is enough to pay for more than 100 attempts, assuming it eventually works.

ricko

This thread is interesting... and I would think PCGS graders and finalizers read it as well.... I do not personally know how the grading process works, but have seen it authoritatively posted that graders do not know who the submitters are. I would be really surprised if the system could be 'gamed' as suggested above. Really does not matter to me... I like coins. Cheers, RickO

P0CKETCHANGE

@ricko said:
This thread is interesting... and I would think PCGS graders and finalizers read it as well.... I do not personally know how the grading process works, but have seen it authoritatively posted that graders do not know who the submitters are. I would be really surprised if the system could be 'gamed' as suggested above. Really does not matter to me... I like coins. Cheers, RickO

The tactics suggested above—which are quite interesting—do not rely on the graders knowing who submitted the coin, just that they see the coins in a certain sequence/grouping.

ricko

@P0CKETCHANGE.... If that sequence/grouping actually occurs.... that too is an assumption. In addition, the graders would actually have to consider them as a group, and not actually assess the coins individually and independently. Cheers, RickO

DelawareDoons

@ricko said:
This thread is interesting... and I would think PCGS graders and finalizers read it as well.... I do not personally know how the grading process works, but have seen it authoritatively posted that graders do not know who the submitters are. I would be really surprised if the system could be 'gamed' as suggested above. Really does not matter to me... I like coins. Cheers, RickO

They theoretically don't know. But the reality is that these guys have mostly worked together at one junction or another at some point in time and know each other/follow one another. So if some dealer posts a coin he's gonna try to get upgraded, then sends it in, assuming it's not a generic looking coin, a grader may very well recognize it.

It's a small world when you get to the level of competency to be a professional grader. A lot of these guys know each other, and many knew each other prior to being graders/bigger dealers.

Just to use a specific example, a dealer I know of is friends with several graders, and talks to them frequently. He knows who is working what shows and their tendencies grading-wise... and can base his submissions around that knowledge to maximize his chances of getting upgrades. It seems like he's gaming the system to a casual observer, but he's really just utilizing his relationships to maximize his chances of success to tremendous effect. He's also persistent as hell, so if these graders keep seeing the same coins show up for a show grading/show recon, they might realize it is his coin.

I don't think these relationships have any real effect on the end grade, to be clear, but maybe his knowledge/relationships make him 25% more likely to get the bump he's looking for, as opposed to a layperson.

ricko

@DelawareDoons ... Well, we are, after all, paying for opinions. A measurable, repeatable set of standards would make a difference. In the meantime, we deal with the human element. Cheers, RickO

1madman

Bait coins don’t work, they only anger the graders.

retirednow

@BryceM said:

"....

I've often wondered if it would be fun to acquire a really, really nice 1925-S Peace dollar in MS64+ ($1,750) and crack it out and send it in a dozen times to try for an MS65 ($28,500). The hardest part of this is finding a really nice MS64+ that is nice enough to make it worth a try. The value difference is enough to pay for more than 100 attempts, assuming it eventually works. ..."

And on the 99th try you scratch the coin in cracking it out

MasonG

@BryceM said:
However, there are a bunch of potential problems and issues with this.

One issue you left out is that PCGS is certainly aware that people believe preparing their submissions by arranging for specific coins to be in the order will get them better grades. It would be foolish to think they don't consider that when they're grading your coins.

BryceM

I completely agree. The human factor also includes an intense desire to not be manipulated. All of us do that. You can't make it too obvious. If you include a handful of "experiments" in a submission of 100 or 200 coins, that'll probably fly under the radar.

SanctionII

Interesting thread.

I do not know what happens in a TPG grading room as coins are being graded; and I do not know if any of the scenarios mentioned in this thread will increase the chances that a given coin will receive a higher grade.

I do have an 8 coin voucher submission at our host (8 1950 proof half dollars) being graded.

One of these 8 coins is much higher in quality than the other 7. It will be interesting to see how this one coin grades compared to the grades on the other 7.

neildrobertson

The graders can usually see you are doing this. This sort of tactic is well known among the grading community. In my opinion, it is not a wise use of money.

Graders have said that they don't consistently grade coins in the order they are put into the grading order forms. There is no guarantee that your sequence will play out as intended in the grading room.

The only thing that leaves room for strategies like this is that +s don't always seem to be applied everywhere they can be applied, in general.

MasonG

@neildrobertson said:
Graders have said that they don't consistently grade coins in the order they are put into the grading order forms. There is no guarantee that your sequence will play out as intended in the grading room.

As well, they're not grading the coins in relation to all the other coins in a particular submission, they're assigning an individual grade to each based on company standards. Graders see hundreds of coins a day, I can't imagine there are many of them who spend even a second thinking about the one they finished five coins ago.

lermish

@MasonG said:

As well, they're not grading the coins in relation to all the other coins in a particular submission, they're assigning an individual grade to each based on company standards. Graders see hundreds of coins a day, I can't imagine there are many of them who spend even a second thinking about the one they finished five coins ago.

I agree that any sway, one way or the other, IF it exists is not a conscious decision. But it is impossible to control the inherent bias of a human being. I think that is the whole idea...whether we as submitters can subtly, or not so subtly, sway the bias of the graders.

I have no idea if we can or not but the biases and the inability to shut them out definitely exist in coin grading and all walks of life. Think of an umpire calling balls or strikes; they have seen hundreds of thousands (or millions) of pitches and know exactly what the strike zone is...doesn't mean they get them all right. And can a pitcher/batter/catcher's actions sway their next call or maybe a call an inning or two later? Absolutely. There are a ton more examples from judges' sentencing patterns before and after lunch to dating, race relations, poker...really everything where human judgement is required.

TurtleCat

Seems this thread shows that the market is largely made by the dealer or TPG. Same as many said in Mark’s thread.

Elcontador

Interesting thread. As skilled as the graders are, they are people, and sometimes people make mistakes.
As others commented, this is a small community, and they know who has the really expensive coins.

They have long since figured out all of the ideas mentioned above.

Sometimes a coin does get through. Years ago, I heard a guy brag to another one that he got a Seated Dollar to upgrade from MS 64 to MS 65 on his eleventh submission.

I did get a gift. Once. But far more times I've submitted coins that I thought should upgrade, but didn't. I've tried to upgrade a liner coin three or four times that a crack out guy wanted to buy from me. What he would do to upgrade the coin I don't know, and don't want to know.

I just try to buy something solid for the grade. If I keep it for 10 or 20 years and want to sell it, I may try for an in holder upgrade / reconsideration. I have enough aggravation in my life without asking for more of it.

logger7

To deny that grading is free of any political sway or possible bias is somewhat naive. When a whale drops a huge submission of type gold I would think that the graders are on their best behavior to give the best grades.

moursund

@BryceM said:

I've often wondered if it would be fun to acquire a really, really nice 1925-S Peace dollar in MS64+ ($1,750) and crack it out and send it in a dozen times to try for an MS65 ($28,500). The hardest part of this is finding a really nice MS64+ that is nice enough to make it worth a try. The value difference is enough to pay for more than 100 attempts, assuming it eventually works.

Let's say it takes 4 months per attempt... how many years do you want to play this game?