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PM Downward Slide??

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    ShadyDaveShadyDave Posts: 2,188 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 30, 2022 7:53AM

    Metals will languish as long as the fed is "working" to keep down inflation. I think silver will continue downward till September at the minimum. I expect ~$16 spot silver around then. QT will also ramp up beginning in September from what I've seen and Powell will be getting pressured by the current administration as the mid-term elections near.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4517638-what-to-expect-from-the-feds-quantitative-tightening

    Not sure what the economy is going to look like at the end of Q3, I'm hearing of a lot of layoffs presently occurring across many industries and my wife's industry (FinTech) is a bloodbath right now. While Powell is talking a big game of doing whatever it takes to control inflation, I don't think he is going to continue with 75pb hikes after September. I expect a 75pb hike in July, August (no fed meeting) is a wild card of what they will do with no planned meeting, and one last 75bps hike in September. After that, I think tech companies are going to be really hurting, consumers are going to be hurting (as sustained gas, food and electricity prices eat into savings and credit) and housing will be screeching to a halt.

    When rates hikes and QT are paused is when metals will take off, when that actually happens is is anyone's guess.

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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,382 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 30, 2022 9:14PM

    When rates hikes and QT are paused is when metals will take off, when that actually happens is is anyone's guess.

    tech companies are going to be really hurting, consumers are going to be hurting (as sustained gas, food and electricity prices eat into savings and credit) and housing will be screeching to a halt.

    The can has been kicked down the road so far and so often that we've become immune to any of the inevitable consequences. We simply don't know when the implosion is going to happen but when it does, you'd better be somewhat prepared. It's just not going to be pretty.

    Silver may not be considered to be essential now, but I'm betting that it will become so. For those who think silver is a terrible investment or speculation, it's a cheap form of diversification and there is still alot to be said for diversification.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    rcmb3220rcmb3220 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    When rates hikes and QT are paused is when metals will take off, when that actually happens is is anyone's guess.

    tech companies are going to be really hurting, consumers are going to be hurting (as sustained gas, food and electricity prices eat into savings and credit) and housing will be screeching to a halt.

    The can has been kicked down the road so far and so often that we've become immune to any of the inevitable consequences. We simply don't know when the implosion is going to happen but when it does, you'd better be somewhat prepared. It's just not going to be pretty.

    Silver may not be considered to be essential now, but I'm betting that it will become so. For those who think silver is a terrible investment or speculation, it's a cheap form of diversification and there is still alot to be said for diversification.

    Silver isn’t going to help in a collapse scenario. Nobody is going to trade you food for silver. Not at anything close to fair value. Gold will work but only as a store of wealth. I guess silver could too but why bother with it?

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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,382 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Silver isn’t going to help in a collapse scenario. Nobody is going to trade you food for silver. Not at anything close to fair value. Gold will work but only as a store of wealth. I guess silver could too but why bother with it?

    I respectfully disagree. There might be a brief time before precious metals assume the role of tradeable currency, but I doubt that either fiat paper money or electronic "money" will be trusted after a collapse. The survivors will be the ones to assign value to various commodities, and most of human history would point towards the re-monetization of the precious metals.

    Lead, cows, chickens, bags of seed, tractor parts, whiskey, antibiotics, gasoline - they are also tradeable candidates but not quite as handy as precious metals in coin form.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,464 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Silver isn’t going to help in a collapse scenario. Nobody is going to trade you food for silver. Not at anything close to fair value. Gold will work but only as a store of wealth. I guess silver could too but why bother with it?

    I respectfully disagree. There might be a brief time before precious metals assume the role of tradeable currency, but I doubt that either fiat paper money or electronic "money" will be trusted after a collapse. The survivors will be the ones to assign value to various commodities, and most of human history would point towards the re-monetization of the precious metals.

    Lead, cows, chickens, bags of seed, tractor parts, whiskey, antibiotics, gasoline - they are also tradeable candidates but not quite as handy as precious metals in coin form.

    Silver could disappear from the planet tomorrow and the world would barely skip a beat (minus a few solar panels). It certainly isn't going to feed you in your bunker during a time of economic collapse. But at least you got the premiums. LOL

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

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    rcmb3220rcmb3220 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Silver isn’t going to help in a collapse scenario. Nobody is going to trade you food for silver. Not at anything close to fair value. Gold will work but only as a store of wealth. I guess silver could too but why bother with it?

    I respectfully disagree. There might be a brief time before precious metals assume the role of tradeable currency, but I doubt that either fiat paper money or electronic "money" will be trusted after a collapse. The survivors will be the ones to assign value to various commodities, and most of human history would point towards the re-monetization of the precious metals.

    Lead, cows, chickens, bags of seed, tractor parts, whiskey, antibiotics, gasoline - they are also tradeable candidates but not quite as handy as precious metals in coin form.

    Nobody is going to want silver or gold in exchange for essentials after a collapse. Or if they do, they are going to want 5 ounces of silver for a loaf of bread. Read Anna Eisenmenger’s diary.

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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,382 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Silver could disappear from the planet tomorrow and the world would barely skip a beat (minus a few solar panels). It certainly isn't going to feed you in your bunker during a time of economic collapse. But at least you got the premiums. LOL

    Nobody is going to want silver or gold in exchange for essentials after a collapse. Or if they do, they are going to want 5 ounces of silver for a loaf of bread. Read Anna Eisenmenger’s diary.

    Boy, have I been schooled! I always have to laugh when silver naysayers try to imply that silver holders are so one-dimensional that they don't plan for food shortages or anything else. The condescension is always palpable, and wrong.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭✭✭

    " Read Anna Eisenmenger’s diary. "

    I have not read the book, but found some excerpts online. For my education, can you give me some excerpts from the book that relate to trying to use silver and gold to try to purchase food/necessities and being refused? I am always interested in real life examples.

    One of the excerpts I found pertained to Anna's banker urging her to convert her money into Swiss francs, instead of keeping the Austrian krone, which was rapidly becoming worthless. In other words, get out of the bad currency and into 'sound money'.

    In my opinion, silver coins would likely be considered 'sound money' and be utilized for exchange and to hold value. Again, certainly welcome any real life examples.

    ----- kj
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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 2, 2022 5:44AM

    " Read Anna Eisenmenger’s diary. "

    Another thought... real life examples of using gold and silver (and other currencies ) in Anna's time are likely very hard to find. For the simple reason that such transactions were illegal by the state, with dire consequences for the violators. So anyone using gold and silver likely did not document the transactions in diaries and ledgers, and are likely never to be heard about.

    And likely applies during other times, eras, etc. also.

    Again... real life examples are welcome... I have interest in the topic for my own knowledge and how to best diversify.

    ----- kj
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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 2, 2022 5:51AM

    " Read Anna Eisenmenger’s diary. "

    And actually one more thought/question. During Anna's time, Austria had gold coins, and silver coins. What happened to those? Did they become worthless like the paper money due to inflation and just thrown in the street gutter? Or... as I suspect.... did they hold some value and find willing buyers in or out of Austria. Once again... just trying to learn.

    ----- kj
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    rcmb3220rcmb3220 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭✭

    @tincup said:
    " Read Anna Eisenmenger’s diary. "

    I have not read the book, but found some excerpts online. For my education, can you give me some excerpts from the book that relate to trying to use silver and gold to try to purchase food/necessities and being refused? I am always interested in real life examples.

    One of the excerpts I found pertained to Anna's banker urging her to convert her money into Swiss francs, instead of keeping the Austrian krone, which was rapidly becoming worthless. In other words, get out of the bad currency and into 'sound money'.

    In my opinion, silver coins would likely be considered 'sound money' and be utilized for exchange and to hold value. Again, certainly welcome any real life examples.

    For one, she traded a gold watch for some potatoes. Talk about inflation. If she had a few cans of soup she could have gotten the same amount of potatoes.

    The main lesson is nobody really wants your gold or silver in these situations because they have no utility. Just about anything makes more sense than PMs. Canned food, batteries, toothpaste, liquor, Prostitution - all of it will get you a better deal than metal.

    Now you could use this opportunity to gouge people for PMs by having a surplus of necessities. But that will eventually just get you murdered by your neighbor or by the future totalitarian regime.

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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 3, 2022 8:26AM

    " For one, she traded a gold watch for some potatoes. Talk about inflation. If she had a few cans of soup she could have gotten the same amount of potatoes. "

    So gold was able to get her food when nothing else was able/available to do so. I wonder how many paper Krones would have been needed to get those potatoes. My guess is they would not have been sold for paper krones at any price. Looks to me like that gold might have been pretty valuable.

    Was it the best deal? I don't know. But it got her food and kept her alive.

    I'm still curious about the Austria gold coins... what happened to the individuals that had them? I suspect they were able to escape the situation in much better shape that those who did not have them... but those details are probably lost to time.

    ----- kj
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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Regardless of our opinions, thanks for the mention of the book. It looks like one I would like to pick up and read.

    ----- kj
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    rcmb3220rcmb3220 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭✭

    @tincup said:
    " For one, she traded a gold watch for some potatoes. Talk about inflation. If she had a few cans of soup she could have gotten the same amount of potatoes. "

    So gold was able to get her food when nothing else was able/available to do so. I wonder how many paper Krones would have been needed to get those potatoes. My guess is they would not have been sold for paper krones at any price. Looks to me like that gold might have been pretty valuable.

    Was it the best deal? I don't know. But it got her food and kept her alive.

    I'm still curious about the Austria gold coins... what happened to the individuals that had them? I suspect they were able to escape the situation in much better shape that those who did not have them... but those details are probably lost to time.

    Trying to survive during hyperinflation is a criminal activity due to anti-hoarding laws and other capital controls. I doubt anyone was much better off for having gold coins. Anna was the wife of a doctor and her account was miserable.

    If you have $35 to spend right now and are worried about hyperinflation, buy $35 worth of essentials and not $20 worth of silver. You’ll still be a criminal but you will have something to eat and/or make a fair trade with. That’s the point of the gold watch story.

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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,382 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The main lesson is nobody really wants your gold or silver in these situations because they have no utility. Just about anything makes more sense than PMs. Canned food, batteries, toothpaste, liquor, Prostitution - all of it will get you a better deal than metal.

    Have you liquidated all of your PMs for cans of food then? If not, why not? Walk the walk if you really think that gold & silver have no utility.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    SoldiSoldi Posts: 2,024 ✭✭✭✭✭

    USD you just don't realize how great and world mighty this country is.

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    rcmb3220rcmb3220 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    The main lesson is nobody really wants your gold or silver in these situations because they have no utility. Just about anything makes more sense than PMs. Canned food, batteries, toothpaste, liquor, Prostitution - all of it will get you a better deal than metal.

    Have you liquidated all of your PMs for cans of food then? If not, why not? Walk the walk if you really think that gold & silver have no utility.

    I have <10 ounces of silver and >12 months of necessities. If I have any extra ramen, I’ll trade you a few packs for your gold watch.

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    CoinHoarderCoinHoarder Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭✭✭

    After the initial collapse, when things begin to normalize, you can use your gold and silver to buy whatever currency replaces the US dollar.

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    PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 45,447 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @rcmb3220 said:

    @jmski52 said:
    The main lesson is nobody really wants your gold or silver in these situations because they have no utility. Just about anything makes more sense than PMs. Canned food, batteries, toothpaste, liquor, Prostitution - all of it will get you a better deal than metal.

    Have you liquidated all of your PMs for cans of food then? If not, why not? Walk the walk if you really think that gold & silver have no utility.

    I have <10 ounces of silver and >12 months of necessities. If I have any extra ramen, I’ll trade you a few packs for your gold watch.

    If things got that bad, someone would gladly trade a ,357 slug for your ramen noodles and they would even deliver it to you airmail. ;)

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.

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    blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,464 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Butter and beans. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

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    meluaufeetmeluaufeet Posts: 751 ✭✭✭

    @derryb I like that chart from Goldswitzerland.

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    JWPJWP Posts: 17,780 ✭✭✭✭✭

    You can buy Bit coin, I'll take silver and gold. Even a bad investment turns good over time. Bit coin - maybe not. Just saying.

    USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
    Successful Transactions with more than 100 Members

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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,382 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 5, 2022 10:59AM

    If I have any extra ramen, I’ll trade you a few packs for your gold watch.

    You've already stated that gold is useless, so why would you give up your valuable ramen noodles for gold?

    Methinks the lady doth protest too much. At least shoot for some consistency in your theorizing.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    rcmb3220rcmb3220 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    If I have any extra ramen, I’ll trade you a few packs for your gold watch.

    You've already stated that gold is useless, so why would you give up your valuable ramen noodles for gold?

    Methinks the lady doth protest too much. At least shoot for some consistency in your theorizing.

    Well this is just sad. Bless your heart.

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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,382 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Well this is just sad. Bless your heart.

    Nothing phases you, does it?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    JimTylerJimTyler Posts: 3,060 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Didn’t Putin value gold at $1600 ? Guess he’s calling the shots on this one too. Why does he seem to do everything right and our guys are rolling in 💩

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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Does make you wonder... perhaps Putin has a better handle on world economics than we give him credit for.

    ----- kj
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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,382 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 6, 2022 9:57AM

    Didn’t Putin value gold at $1600 ? Guess he’s calling the shots on this one too. Why does he seem to do everything right and our guys are rolling in 💩

    Our problems are right here at home, not so much with Putin although his moves shouldn't be ignored either.

    Listen to Gregory Mannarino's podcast and decide if it's valid. He is saying that the Fed is buying tons of bonds via a backdoor in order to drop interest rates (and to prop up the stock market) while professing to be quantitatively-tightening.

    There's no other way to induce lower rates than to create tons of new imaginary money and then to buy tons of gov.com bonds with fake demand from tons of fake new money. There's no other way to do it. In a week, the 10 year has dropped from 3.2% to under 2.8% which is apparently unprecedented.

    All of this has to take into account that the Fed is supposedly "tightening".

    Basically, everything they say is a lie and there is no real market mechanism at work. The Fed is trying to own massive amounts of debt, buying it all with their own fake credit. Something for nothing, essentially - on the backs of citizens for the benefit of a very small group who operate from a distance with at least a few degrees of insulation between themselves and the consequences of their decisions and schemes.

    When all of the dust clears, the Fed (a privately-owned cartel) will own all US debt, and taxpayers will be saddled with perpetual payments to gov.com which will all be channeled onto the P&L statements of the privately-owned Federal Reserve System Banking Cartel.

    There are no real markets while the Fed is controlling the debt market to it's own advantage, to the detriment of virtually everyone else.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,622 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    When all of the dust clears, the Fed (a privately-owned cartel) will own all US debt, and taxpayers will be saddled with perpetual payments to gov.com which will all be channeled onto the P&L statements of the privately-owned Federal Reserve System Banking Cartel.

    Well, first, taxpaypayers own more US debt than the Fed...and always will.

    2nd, if the Fed owned it al, what incentive would taxpayers have to pay interest on it?

    Taxpayers wouldnt give a darn hoot if it defaulted.

    The scenario you describe involves the Fed buying (giving money) to existing holders (taxpayers). So in the end, the taxpayers have all the money and the Fed all the debt.

    This is the dumbest conspiracy theory you ever proposed.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 6, 2022 12:22PM

    Note that a number of US agencies hold US debt. LOL

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    fcfc Posts: 12,789 ✭✭✭
    edited July 6, 2022 12:44PM

    I am pretty sure many here recall what happened in Vietnam and Cambodia during the 1970/80s. Gold was the currency of choice to escape the madness there. Silver was used as well. These are very recent events relatively speaking when chaos can happen and gold was used with silver coming in second. There is countless websites discussing how gold was used as payment to escape the country and when arriving at a new one gold was converted to the local currency to start a new life. There were buyers actually at Camp Pendleton and other places when they arrived. They bought gold/silver bullion as well as the chunky gold jewelry that Vietnamese/Cambodians prefer.

    So I am truly unclear why people think gold/silver does not have a certain utility when crap hits the fan when you do not have to look very far back in the past to see it is true. But yes.. gold was mainly used during that time due to its smaller size once you got on that boat.

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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Yep... if you are trying to escape from a situation like Vietnam was... I doubt you would be able to bribe a guard with a couple of packets of ramen noodles. But a gold coin... might have a chance,

    ----- kj
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭

    gold is money. It takes a crisis for some to realize it.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    rcmb3220rcmb3220 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭✭

    @tincup said:
    Yep... if you are trying to escape from a situation like Vietnam was... I doubt you would be able to bribe a guard with a couple of packets of ramen noodles. But a gold coin... might have a chance,

    So the plan is to bribe a Mexican border guard with a gold coin or two? That could work.

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    OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭

    jmski52 indicated:

    "There's no other way to do it. In a week, the 10 year has dropped from 3.2% to under 2.8% which is apparently unprecedented."

    But only for a day. Back up to 3%. The Feds will continue to tighten the noose and interest rates will continue to climb within the foreseeable future.

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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    OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    gold is money. It takes a crisis for some to realize it.

    Money makes gold. It takes money to mine, refine and sell it to gullible customers. ;)

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OPA said:

    @derryb said:
    gold is money. It takes a crisis for some to realize it.

    Money makes gold. It takes money to mine, refine and sell it to gullible customers. ;)

    History tells a different story. LOL

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    CoinHoarderCoinHoarder Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Whose backin up the truck? :)

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    bidaskbidask Posts: 13,865 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Let’s face it

    The almighty US dollar still the king

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




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    OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @OPA said:

    @derryb said:
    gold is money. It takes a crisis for some to realize it.

    Money makes gold. It takes money to mine, refine and sell it to gullible customers. ;)

    History tells a different story. LOL

    Just like I said...It takes money to make gold. I'm sure the expense involved wasn't paid via beans or even silver..

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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    blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,464 ✭✭✭✭✭

    One thing I've learned is the snake oil salesmen always find a chart to fit their agenda. Funny what happens when you move the bar a year or two. LOL

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 7, 2022 7:00PM

    @blitzdude said:
    One thing I've learned is the snake oil salesmen always find a chart to fit their agenda.

    It is what it is.

    Show me yours. LOL

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,858 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OPA said:

    @derryb said:
    gold is money. It takes a crisis for some to realize it.

    Money makes gold. It takes money to mine, refine and sell it to gullible customers. ;)

    It takes labor. The price of metals is determined by the cost of extraction. That's where money comes in. Gold is the money man is laboring for, unless you're an authorized printer. Then, it's ink. And the laborer is duped into believing in the paper ( fiat) it's printed on. My humble view.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It takes money to print dollars, well at least the ink, paper and labor. Yet dollars are still money.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    It takes money to print dollars, well at least the ink, paper and labor. Yet dollars are still money.

    Agree, that the dollar is money.....but gold is not. Gold may have an intrinsic value exchangeable to money ( aka fiat currency)

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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    OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:

    @OPA said:

    @derryb said:
    gold is money. It takes a crisis for some to realize it.

    Money makes gold. It takes money to mine, refine and sell it to gullible customers. ;)

    It takes labor. The price of metals is determined by the cost of extraction. That's where money comes in. Gold is the money man is laboring for, unless you're an authorized printer. Then, it's ink. And the laborer is duped into believing in the paper ( fiat) it's printed on. My humble view.

    And the laborers are paid in gold? I think not. The "money man" is laboring for hard currency that he can spend on labor, equipment and taxes.

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,217 ✭✭✭✭✭

    bought some dollars just last week with my gold.

    gold is money, not a currency.

    Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt

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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,382 ✭✭✭✭✭

    This is the dumbest conspiracy theory you ever proposed.

    Keep working on your reading comprehension. You've twisted what I've said, but that's not new.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,382 ✭✭✭✭✭

    only for a day. Back up to 3%. The Feds will continue to tighten the noose and interest rates will continue to climb within the foreseeable future.

    Apparently the back-door behind-the-scenes "emergency measures" announced by the ECB a few days ago has already run it's course. They never said just what those emergence measures were, but you can bet that it involved money creation and bond purchases up the wazoo.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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