Is Bluesheet relevant anymore to pricing?
logger7
Posts: 8,679 ✭✭✭✭✭
I was checking out Bluesheet recently which on Morgan dollars for example can be half of Greysheet which is hard to believe has any real world application. These days sending images is much easier than when we were blind to coins we were interested in. Does Bluesheet have relevance?
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I bet the Blue Sheets are used by many dealers when buying coins from the general public.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I imagine it could be useful for setting a basis for the offer when a widow comes into the store with grandpa’s collection.
LIBERTY SEATED DIMES WITH MAJOR VARIETIES CIRCULATION STRIKES (1837-1891) digital album
If anyone pulls out a bluesheet when evaluating your nice PCGS coins…… RUN !!!!!!
Blue sheet prices are real offers, dealer to dealer, sight unseen. They come off the CDN network.
I do not know how often trades are completed at that number. However, when I was a member, I posted bids that made me the highest bidder and my bids became the bluesheet price in the next edition.
https://www.greysheet.com/news/story/bluesheet-bluesheet-prices-represent-both-the-top-and-bottom-end-of-certified-values
The Bluesheet, introduced in 1986 with the advent of third party grading, was intended to show buyers the “sight unseen” value for PCGS and NGC certified coins of popularly-traded series. The basic idea was that the rare coin market would become commoditized and slabbed coins could be traded unseen between buyers and the Bluesheet would represent this value. In other words, more of a “trader’s sheet” than a collector’s guide.
These buyers are seeking market gains and not concerned with eye appeal or technical aspects of their coins.
the Bluesheet value for a PCGS and NGC coin specifically reference a basal value for “any” coin in that particular holder.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=wwmUMvhy-lY - Pink Me And Bobby McGee
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https://youtube.com/watch?v=D0FPxuQv2ns - Ruby Starr (from 'Go Jim Dandy') Maybe I'm Amazed
RLJ 1958 - 2023
Blue Sheet prices are appropriate when buying from collectors who brag about never having paid full retail for a coin.
You mean a dealer can't feed their family by buying at retail and selling at wholesale?
Probably not. Even if they use Bluesheet values to buy from widows whose grandpas weren't very good at grading.
bullsheet
Feel free to post your own sight unseen bids. We look forward to your complaints about the coins you are forced to accept.
i just thought it was funny.
Believe it or not, there are certified coins that are not worth Blue Sheet numbers. I am thinking about the coins that have gone bad in the holder.
But if you are patient, and the guarantee is still active on the coin, then you can make out OK in the long run having the grading service conserve it or pay out on it as I have done.
No, not for a Wisconsin commemorative half dollar, with coal black surfaces in an NGC holder. I bought one of those from a good customer, warning him that I was not an enthusiastic buyer, and took my lumps.
Yes, Bluesheet is valid for the worst possible coin that can get into that holder.
Another source of information.... Understand what it is and use other sources. Keep all sources in perspective and understand current values as reflected in auctions. Cheers, RickO
One example of a problem coin that had turned in an NGC holder that I waited for the solution; I bought an MS63 or 64 DPL coin, sent it to NGC, came back in a PL holder conserved as they said that by current standards it was not DPL, and they gave me a credit.
That is not a game that dealers are going to play with widgets. Bluesheet is sight unseen wholesale. No dealer is going to look at a coin and say, "Gee, screw the bluesheet, if I spend 6 months getting the coin reholdered and maybe conserved, it'll be worth 20% more than bluesheet."
The art of negotiation starts somewhere. Guides keep us on the beaten path.
This is actually a very good question and more relevant today than it has been in a long time. We are discussing the future of pricing here at CDN quite extensively, and the prevailing logic is that the market for truly "sight unseen" quality isn't the greatest need of the marketplace. What we are considering is the idea of making separate Greysheet levels for PCGS, NGC, and CAC, and then eliminating the Bluesheet for PCGS and NGC. In other words, we would potentially have three different prices for an MS65 WISCONSIN in PCGS, NGC and CAC. The value of this coin in these respective holders (or sticker) as "sight unseen" is something that buyers can calculate based on the Greysheet price and market data.
This is the first time I've discussed this publicly, so I'm curious how people feel about this strategy. Thanks!
John
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
Thanks, John. What jumped out at me at the beginning of the Morgan date series on Bluesheet was the 1878 7tf in MS63; at $90, not even a toned Anacs or Icg coin would be discounted that much as Greysheet is around $185. With MS62 coins around $150 on GS, it makes no sense that a Bluesheet coin would be $90. Many similar examples where I'm sure there are many dealers willing to pay 20% behind GS on a lot of coins as long as they were not very much problem coins.
Correct. The reason for this is that there really aren't any bids Sight-unseen for these coins, so the movement has been for "Sight Seen" or Greysheet level items. We typically update Bluesheet to reflect the new Greysheet but there's aren't actual bids to support it, so it's all a bit confusing to say the least.
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
If you are going to separate PCGS and NGC, then why combine them together if CAC.? If I understand correctly, JA puts out bids for CAC (PCGS or NGC). However, in the 'market' the PCGS CAC often can sell for more than an NGC CAC. I suspect it can also be the opposite way around but for the items that I observe it is usually PCGS CAC at the top price.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=wwmUMvhy-lY - Pink Me And Bobby McGee
.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=D0FPxuQv2ns - Ruby Starr (from 'Go Jim Dandy') Maybe I'm Amazed
RLJ 1958 - 2023
I suppose it all depends on your method for setting PCGS, NGC and CAC prices.
Regardless, whatever Greysheet does next, I think that sooner or later we'll end up with a price range for each coin, with no separate pricing for any of the services. The range would be applicable only to accurately graded coins, from low end to high end for the grade. No need to report on undergraded or overgraded coins, or on outrageously PQ or wildly toned outliers.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Perhaps the single worst idea that I have ever heard of ever, you will be doing the hobby a significant diservice if you proceed as you have outlined with different prices for plastic.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Ummm... news flash. It already exists.
I don’t use it. My offer / bid based on MV or what I can sell an item for. Example: If CPG or CF is at $100 my offer / bid is at a pct of that. I don’t buy low end trash either. Furthermore a lot of my graded material is low pop world. If I was like a SLQ specialist perhaps my operation mode wb different and refer to blue sheet / grey sheet.
Bluesheet represents sight unseen. However many dealers use it as a sort of blue book of certified coins like a few I know. Looking at the bluesheet, They quickly, decisively make the offer “the market says $320 for it.” And the seller either takes it or walks.
Bluesheet? I'm starting to wonder if any price guides are relevant.
I'm sure not winning anything at auction unless it's at a new record price.
Another good argument. However, it's important to appreciate that even in today's current environment the irrational results are limited to certain areas. The majority of prices of items traded in the market are rather predictable. That's why auctions are so great at price discovery. Morgan dollars in MS60-65, for example, are trading quite reliably in the market. Even coming down in some areas. Which is normal for a series that has been so strong in the last 12 months.
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
That is what those who worship and suckle like to say and a narrative they want to push, but it is not really true.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
You apparently have not subscribed to the bluesheet. They've had separate values for the TPGs for probably 20 years. The only real change is they no longer address PCI and ANACS.
If you were a CDN member, you would see that there are actual separate bids for the two majors. These are dealer offers, and the dealers do distinguish between NGC and PCGS for certain series.
You can try to pretend that it doesn't exist, but it has for more than a decade... even for those who don't "suckle".
https://images.app.goo.gl/weRyCng3jTYpXS5r5
I am thinking the guy in the corner of the bourse room with a big green sign “cash for coins” and $500k in buying cash then for sure would have his blue sheet out. Need cash? Just take his deal.
How is that different from any other offer? Are we supposed to be shocked that not all dealers have a "buy" price closely based on their "sell" price?
I only look at any guide when I don't know what the "sell price" is. If I'm looking at Chinese pandas and I know I can get $35, then I offer $30 to $32.... no matter what any guide says.
Greysheet levels are a good guide for approximate valuations for coins that will straight grade among dealers. Looking at Bluesheet, I don't see a major decrease in value for the rare coins, cc coins, and other ones in high demand. In my Greysheet it says that the coins may be raw or certified but they must adhere to the current leading standard. On Bluesheet it says it is "less of a sight-unseen price and more of the prevailing wholesale value for that item in that holder". Common Morgan dollar in MS65 are $185 in Greysheet and $165 in Bluesheet.
Since the Greysheet values are based on ANA grading standards. So that should also apply to Anacs and Icg coins right? A holder should not confer a bias. But since collectors may want a coin in "their" favorite service holder the cost of crossover needs to be taken into account in some cases. Also coins with market acceptable surface issues including scratches and an old cleaning should decrease the value somewhat but not below Bluesheet, right?
You are correct and pinning down Greysheet (and Bluesheet) values is getting harder and harder. The Greysheet value currently represents a nice coin for the grade that is agreed on by both parties -- regardless of grading service, or raw even.
Regarding the future, we will make a determination after ANA WFoM show this year (where we can have a lot of conversations with market influencers) about the next gen of pricing. For us the goal is simple. We want to provide our subscribers with the most accurate and helpful data possible to assist in making pricing decisions. As @MrEureka points out, this is most logically a "price range" but that's really just a matter of display. In other words if we determine a value to be $1000, the price range could be interpreted (displayed) as $950-$1050, etc. All of this is on the table...
Thank you all for your input, and to our hosts for allowing us to have this open discussion on their forum.
John
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
Also, what about ebay sales? PCGS coin facts used to have those sales included in auction records. Since ebay is one of the largest markets out there how are you incorporating those sales into your data?
We consider eBay results to be relevant for research but not for general pricing research, for many reasons. It's really hard to determine real sales on eBay, whether items get canceled or returned, properly described. If someone presents us with a specific item we'll consider it, but we don't like the idea of large amounts of eBay data for this reason. When it comes to cheaper items like inexpensive modern issues, we prefer to work with large marketers who have established buy-sell spreads.
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
What we are considering is the idea of making separate Greysheet levels for PCGS, NGC, and CAC, and then eliminating the Bluesheet for PCGS and NGC. In other words, we would potentially have three different prices for an MS65 WISCONSIN in PCGS, NGC and CAC.
I've always been concerned about the difference in PCGS and NGC pricing. And then CAC pricing considers them to be equal. Going a step further I wonder if instead of the price difference is because of the difference in quality, it's simply the difference in popularity; especially among Set Registry participants. For example, a collector attempting to put together a finest Barber dime, quarter, or half dollar collection would find in each NGC set, two Barber coins with the highest grade of MS65!
As @MrEureka points out, this is most logically a "price range" but that's really just a matter of display. In other words if we determine a value to be $1000, the price range could be interpreted (displayed) as $950-$1050, etc. >
But in actuality, the size of the spread varies so much from issue to issue that most readers would not be able to intrerpret a single price as well as you suggest. IMHO, the range should be roughly equivalent to "Sight Unseen" to "Fussy Sight Seen", the latter being roughly equivalent to CAC. Granted, doing that would force people to look more closely at their coins before estimating a value, but I don't see that as a bad thing.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
in this regard, it doesn't sound like this will increase the average user's understanding of value
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
I was just going to comment that using a Sight Unseen to Fussy Sight Seen (about CAC) could result in a price range varying from 2X, 3X or more of the lower value. Just had a thread on this and more examples are out there where a white (and some thought not so nice) cac sold for almost 3X an average non-cac and previously had been selling for about 2X. If one, then lowers the bottom value to Sight Unseen versus an average value this would increase the range even further.
Previous example average 3500 to 4000, cac sold at 10K, if you use lowest (sight unseen) value then 2500 to 3000. This produces a value range of say 3000 to 10K. Makes no sense to me. May want to continue to define what the price represents and state how it could vary as is currently done.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=wwmUMvhy-lY - Pink Me And Bobby McGee
.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=D0FPxuQv2ns - Ruby Starr (from 'Go Jim Dandy') Maybe I'm Amazed
RLJ 1958 - 2023
If that’s the case, the “average user” would also not get an “increased understanding of value” from a single price, only a false sense of security. Then again, the average user may not even be a coin dealer, so I’m not sure if he should be your primary focus.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.