@thisistheshow said:
You know you want to pick the Bills to win the SB right now. Just do it.
Yup. You’re right. Went to my favorite casino yesterday to study the odds. I found zero value in any other team. This is the year!! We’ll maybe 😂
Let’s recap my entire preseason wagers. I might add more but I believe I’m done.
Super Bowl futures
Bills +600 for $100
Raiders +4000 for $100
NY Jets over 5.5 for $250
Broncos under 10 for $250
Bengals under 10 for $200
Bills over 11.5 for $200
Patriots under 8.5 for $100
Cardinals under 10 for $100
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Yes, the woeful Jets, who have had two winning seasons since 2007, have more bets on them to win the AFC East at DraftKings Sportsbook than the New England Patriots!
"A young team with a ton of talent led by a second-year QB (Zach Wilson, the No. 2 pick in 2021) that has a chance to explode with an easier schedule? It's hard to blame bettors for seeing the Cincinnati Bengals when they look at this season's Jets team," Newman explained.
As I explained after the draft I believe the Jets will exceed expectations. The youth, stellar draft, another year for Zach Wilson and easy schedule they will win at least 6 games. As for the East, highly doubtful but I was pretty surprised they are getting more action than the Patriots. One explanation is the longer odds.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
@perkdog said:
You don’t like the Bengals this year?
Last year they played a last place schedule. I can’t see them winning 10 games with a first place schedule. They won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year.
AFC North final standings 2022
Ravens
Bengals
Steelers
Browns
Of course all this hinges on a # of factors.
Watsons suspension. Lamar Jackson not getting hurt or sick. Mitch Trubisky with a solid coaching staff. But I think I’m spot on. I have my doubts the Bengals make the playoffs.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
@perkdog said:
You don’t like the Bengals this year?
Last year they played a last place schedule. I can’t see them winning 10 games with a first place schedule. They won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year.
AFC North final standings 2022
Ravens
Bengals
Steelers
Browns
Of course all this hinges on a # of factors.
Watsons suspension. Lamar Jackson not getting hurt or sick. Mitch Trubisky with a solid coaching staff. But I think I’m spot on. I have my doubts the Bengals make the playoffs.
Tough to see them falling off to the point of not making the playoffs, they are a strong team or were last year as we all know.
I highly doubt Watson is going to play much this year, Trubitsky is the worst QB out of these guys, Lamar’s game has been figured out I think. IDK we will see
@perkdog said:
You don’t like the Bengals this year?
Last year they played a last place schedule. I can’t see them winning 10 games with a first place schedule. They won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year.
AFC North final standings 2022
Ravens
Bengals
Steelers
Browns
Of course all this hinges on a # of factors.
Watsons suspension. Lamar Jackson not getting hurt or sick. Mitch Trubisky with a solid coaching staff. But I think I’m spot on. I have my doubts the Bengals make the playoffs.
Tough to see them falling off to the point of not making the playoffs, they are a strong team or were last year as we all know.
I highly doubt Watson is going to play much this year, Trubitsky is the worst QB out of these guys, Lamar’s game has been figured out I think. IDK we will see
The Ravens have the luxury this year of playing a last place schedule with a roster that can easily win this division. I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t sweep or at least go 5-1.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Covid had taken its toll on the poker rooms in Shreveport- Bossier City since 2020. I’m not sure exactly how long they were shut down but I found entertainment elsewhere. Got the bug last night to sit and play a bit. After all it’s 106 degrees here and free air conditioning comes as a perk.
The night started great with a $300 but in and 3 hands in pocket QQ’s against pocket KK’s and I spiked a Q on the flop. Another player came along with Q8 two pair on the flop. Before it’s over I’m all in and a $900 pot. Two hours later and an uneventful evening I cashed out with $810.00. That brings me to the Swami post.
With my lone $10 bill I decided to give back to Louisiana sports book with this incredible bet.
Bills 17-0. 35-1. $10.
That is all folks.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
@2dueces said:
Covid had taken its toll on the poker rooms in Shreveport- Bossier City since 2020. I’m not sure exactly how long they were shut down but I found entertainment elsewhere. Got the bug last night to sit and play a bit. After all it’s 106 degrees here and free air conditioning comes as a perk.
The night started great with a $300 but in and 3 hands in pocket QQ’s against pocket KK’s and I spiked a Q on the flop. Another player came along with Q8 two pair on the flop. Before it’s over I’m all in and a $900 pot. Two hours later and an uneventful evening I cashed out with $810.00. That brings me to the Swami post.
With my lone $10 bill I decided to give back to Louisiana sports book with this incredible bet.
Bills 17-0. 35-1. $10.
That is all folks.
...
Your Bills have one year, one more year, to get to the promised land. After that the Pats will be back to being the divisions Daddy again. Next off-season will see the Pats with an overabundance of cap room. And they will be back. This year will see the exact opposite of a sophomore slump from Mac, and a Pats team that shows discipline and plays hard. I don't expect them to make much noise, but they will be getting ready for the following season. So whether you go 17-0 or just win the division, if you want that elusive trophy you better get it this year.
Final NFL futures wagers
Super Bowl Odds
Bills +600 for $100
Raiders +4000 for $100
Win Totals
NY Jets over 5.5 for $250
Broncos under 10 for $250
Bengals under 10 for $200
Bills over 11.5 for $200
Patriots under 8.5 for $100
Cardinals under 10 for $100
Cowboys under 10.5 for $100
Rams over 10.5 for $100
Eagles over 8 for $100
Raiders over 8.5 for $100
Panthers over 6 for $100
Bills $10 17-0 35-1
Rams division $125 to win $100
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Interesting quirk in the NFL schedule week 1. There are 10 home dogs.
Betting home dogs is usually very profitable as bettors love their favorites and Las Vegas loves taking money from scratch bettors. But week one is an awful time to bet under dogs. Las Vegas wants you to win week one to suck you in forever so favorites typically do well. But I digress.
Im doing an inexpensive experiment
$10 on each home dog
Rams +2.5
Lions +5
Texans +8
Bears +7.5
Jets +8.5
Falcons +5.5
Cardinals +4.5
Vikings +3.5
Cowboys +2
Seahawks +7
My regular week One picks later this week.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
I'm off to look at a car pretty soon and then to the casino to place a few bets.
Probably going with....
Bills -2.5 over Rams but might take the moneyline
Cowboys +1.5 over Bucs
Raiders +4 over Chargers
Eagles -4.5 over LIons
Think I'll stay away from a Chiefs bet, I think they'll win but I just don't like the -4.5
I think the Ravens -6 looks good Sunday.
Now that Lance has taken over in SF, LA Rams to win that division $125 to win $100 is my top play. There’s a reason Jimmy G is still around.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
@perkdog said:
Nice joe! Good to see you back and ready for NFL
Thanks my friend. We’ll see how it goes this time around. I won’t be offering my opinion on teams, players or posters unless it’s to bash my Bills. That’s pretty safe here.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
@2dueces said:
Interesting quirk in the NFL schedule week 1. There are 10 home dogs.
Betting home dogs is usually very profitable as bettors love their favorites and Las Vegas loves taking money from scratch bettors. But week one is an awful time to bet under dogs. Las Vegas wants you to win week one to suck you in forever so favorites typically do well. But I digress.
Im doing an inexpensive experiment
$10 on each home dog
Rams +2.5
Lions +5
Texans +8
Bears +7.5
Jets +8.5
Falcons +5.5
Cardinals +4.5
Vikings +3.5
Cowboys +2
Seahawks +7
My regular week One picks later this week.
....
Looking at that list of home dogs, I would think the Lions (vs Eagles) ad Falcons (vs Saints) might win outright. So I am surprised at the spread being so much.
I'm kind of glad labor day weekend is almost over, its been expensive.
Bought a roto tiller and grass seed, then a Toyota Camry, then my football picks.
Went with Bills, KC, and Dallas.
And Prop bet KC to win Super Bowl.
Its weird, I can post on here that I probably won't bet on Chiefs, but when I'm at an
actual sportsbook its like, okay how much am I going to wager on the Chiefs.
Took the moneyline though so all they have to do is win.
@2dueces said:
Interesting quirk in the NFL schedule week 1. There are 10 home dogs.
Betting home dogs is usually very profitable as bettors love their favorites and Las Vegas loves taking money from scratch bettors. But week one is an awful time to bet under dogs. Las Vegas wants you to win week one to suck you in forever so favorites typically do well. But I digress.
Im doing an inexpensive experiment
$10 on each home dog
Rams +2.5
Lions +5
Texans +8
Bears +7.5
Jets +8.5
Falcons +5.5
Cardinals +4.5
Vikings +3.5
Cowboys +2
Seahawks +7
My regular week One picks later this week.
....
Looking at that list of home dogs, I would think the Lions (vs Eagles) ad Falcons (vs Saints) might win outright. So I am surprised at the spread being so much.
I think the Vikings may win outright and Bears and Rams look mighty tempting.
I remember 2019 opening day
Ravens 59
Miami 10
2020 opening day
Ravens 38
Browns 6
When the Browns were the hot team
I foresee the same results
Ravens 31
Jets 10
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
After much seesawing back and forth. Calculating statistics from the past 60 years, studying the moon phase and geometric position of SoFi stadium in relation to the pacific weather patterns I’ve decided to take:
Buffalo-2.5 for 50.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
@2dueces said:
After much seesawing back and forth. Calculating statistics from the past 60 years, studying the moon phase and geometric position of SoFi stadium in relation to the pacific weather patterns I’ve decided to take:
Buffalo-2.5 for 50.
Congrats 2deuces on the Bills performance especially in the second half.
In hindsight I don't know why I was scared of the odds and took the moneyline,
The game went pretty much like I thought it would with punches being traded
in the first half and then the Bills exerting their will over a hapless opponent in the second half.
Rams on offense are already showing they're a one trick pony with Cooper Kupp.
+50
Good start to the season with the smallish wager on Thursday.
I’ve already placed my wager on Baltimore as I got it at -6. More tomorrow morning as I’ll be driving to the casino early and back home for noon kick off
Baltimore-6 for 50
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Wow. Is it really 5 am? Just getting in from a marathon session of holdem. Sometimes you stay too long. Was up $600 at midnight, the game was good, plenty of loose players and my cards were solid. Unfortunately I was never able to take advantage of any of the above and slowly anted myself into a $300 profit at 4 and came home. So no visits to the casino this morning but I did play one more game.
My opening Sunday wagers
Baltimore-6 for 50
Philly-5.5 for 25
Good luck everyone and I’ll set the alarm for the noon kickoff
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
@2dueces said:
Interesting quirk in the NFL schedule week 1. There are 10 home dogs.
Betting home dogs is usually very profitable as bettors love their favorites and Las Vegas loves taking money from scratch bettors. But week one is an awful time to bet under dogs. Las Vegas wants you to win week one to suck you in forever so favorites typically do well. But I digress.
Im doing an inexpensive experiment
$10 on each home dog
Rams +2.5
Lions +5
Texans +8
Bears +7.5
Jets +8.5
Falcons +5.5
Cardinals +4.5
Vikings +3.5
Cowboys +2
Seahawks +7
My regular week One picks later this week.
....
Looking at that list of home dogs, I would think the Lions (vs Eagles) ad Falcons (vs Saints) might win outright. So I am surprised at the spread being so much.
Both those teams covered. So far home dogs are 5-3 although the Vikings like changed drastically by game time. So if one more home dog covers it would be 60% opening day.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
+175
Not a bad start for the season. If Philly didn’t give up a 17 point 4th quarter lead I would have swept opening weekend. I’m going to pass on tonight’s game. I’m not buying in on all the hype with Denver but don’t have the guts to take Seattle. It’s on to Kansas City Thursday night.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
I’m not counting it but I picked the Chiefs straight up but changed my picks on pick em to the Chargers and laid 25 at +4 minutes before game time. Went to bed after that terrible pick six and saw I back doored a win.
Everett was gassed, asking to come out and coaches waved him back in. Herbert concentrating on the play call missed that whole sequence. That’s on the coaches, not on Herbert or Everett. They should have pulled him, huddled and settled down. That’s why I turned it off. The Chargers are still the Chargers. Always find some way to lose. An aside note. No matter the hype on Herbert he’s not even close to Josh Allen. I doubt anyone can disagree.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
@2dueces said:
I’m not counting it but I picked the Chiefs straight up but changed my picks on pick em to the Chargers and laid 25 at +4 minutes before game time. Went to bed after that terrible pick six and saw I back doored a win.
Everett was gassed, asking to come out and coaches waved him back in. Herbert concentrating on the play call missed that whole sequence. That’s on the coaches, not on Herbert or Everett. They should have pulled him, huddled and settled down. That’s why I turned it off. The Chargers are still the Chargers. Always find some way to lose. An aside note. No matter the hype on Herbert he’s not even close to Josh Allen. I doubt anyone can disagree.
.
Yep. Chargers gonna be Chargers. Always seem to find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Some early thoughts.
Miami hasn’t won in Baltimore since 1997.
There are 4 double digit favorites this week. The #’s are very deceiving and complicated. I’m going to break it down to just a few.
Over all past 30 years 47% cover.
Last 5 years 57% cover.
Good teams that lost the week before 71%
What’s all that mean. Very good teams against bad teams win by a lot and usually a lot more than 10. Far too early in the season to separate the very very good from the very bad. @Buffalo-10 vs Tennessee @LA Rams -10 vs Atlanta @Denver -10 vs Houston @Green Bay -10 vs Chicago
Can I see 3 of these teams cover? Absolutely.
What do I see as my best early play at this point
Baltimore-3
Raiders-5.5
Bengals-7 (is this actually a 10 point spread because Dallas is at home?)
One thing scares me is 99.99999% of the world will be on Cincinnati. The others will be the most die hard Cowboy fans or guys that went to college with Cooper Rush
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
2deuces, thanks for the thoughts.
I'll more than likely be going to the casino tomorrow to place bets and cash in last weeks wins.
I like Buffalo and the Rams to cover the 10 point spread a lot more than Denver and Green Bay.
I do not like the Ravens at -3, I think the Dolphins will beat them and may bet on it.
Funny how the NFL gives Dallas the cake schedule but then they lose Dak in the first game and them getting to the playoffs for ratings blows up in thier faces.
"When they can't find anything wrong with you, they create it!"
I see the 49ers inching into double digits favorites. I’m a little shocked honestly. I don’t see them as more than a 6.5 point favorite. Kittle still isn’t playing and a nagging groin injury could linger all year.
You can blame me for that. I help my daughter in her fantasy league and the last two years her TE’s sucked so I had her pass up a top 10 receiver and draft Kittle. Ugh. Well I had her pick Mike Williams with her next pick so that paid off already.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
@Steven59 said:
Funny how the NFL gives Dallas the cake schedule but then they lose Dak in the first game and them getting to the playoffs for ratings blows up in thier faces.
Because of Washington, Giants and sometimes Philly the Cowboys have history had the easiest strength of schedule. For years it was New England with the rubbish they played in their division for 20 years
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
I do not like the Ravens at -3, I think the Dolphins will beat them and may bet on it.
...
What makes you think this? ... askin for a friend
The Ravens are just....................... the Ravens. Never seem to do anything impressive team wise.
The Dolphins are up and comers. Strong defense. I think they will be too much for Lamar and Company to handle.
Now if Tua could actually hit Tyreek in stride it could be a blow out.
@Steven59 said:
Funny how the NFL gives Dallas the cake schedule but then they lose Dak in the first game and them getting to the playoffs for ratings blows up in thier faces.
Because of Washington, Giants and sometimes Philly the Cowboys have history had the easiest strength of schedule. For years it was New England with the rubbish they played in their division for 20 years
..
We were playing Buffalo. Now you get to play us. You're welcome.
@Steven59 said:
Funny how the NFL gives Dallas the cake schedule but then they lose Dak in the first game and them getting to the playoffs for ratings blows up in thier faces.
Because of Washington, Giants and sometimes Philly the Cowboys have history had the easiest strength of schedule. For years it was New England with the rubbish they played in their division for 20 years
..
We were playing Buffalo. Now you get to play us. You're welcome.
I know it was Buffalo too. I’m not afraid to say they couldn’t field a competitive team for years. Didn’t hurt the Patriots chalking up 6 wins before the season started on their way to a first round bye.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
@Steven59 said:
Funny how the NFL gives Dallas the cake schedule but then they lose Dak in the first game and them getting to the playoffs for ratings blows up in thier faces.
Because of Washington, Giants and sometimes Philly the Cowboys have history had the easiest strength of schedule. For years it was New England with the rubbish they played in their division for 20 years
..
We were playing Buffalo. Now you get to play us. You're welcome.
I know it was Buffalo too. I’m not afraid to say they couldn’t field a competitive team for years. Didn’t hurt the Patriots chalking up 6 wins before the season started on their way to a first round bye.
..
In defense of my team, the narrative that they only could beat division opponents (not saying that you're saying that) was false.
@Steven59 said:
Funny how the NFL gives Dallas the cake schedule but then they lose Dak in the first game and them getting to the playoffs for ratings blows up in thier faces.
Because of Washington, Giants and sometimes Philly the Cowboys have history had the easiest strength of schedule. For years it was New England with the rubbish they played in their division for 20 years
..
We were playing Buffalo. Now you get to play us. You're welcome.
I know it was Buffalo too. I’m not afraid to say they couldn’t field a competitive team for years. Didn’t hurt the Patriots chalking up 6 wins before the season started on their way to a first round bye.
..
In defense of my team, the narrative that they only could beat division opponents (not saying that you're saying that) was false.
You don’t go 16-0 just playing cream puffs.
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Comments
Yup. You’re right. Went to my favorite casino yesterday to study the odds. I found zero value in any other team. This is the year!! We’ll maybe 😂
Let’s recap my entire preseason wagers. I might add more but I believe I’m done.
Super Bowl futures
Bills +600 for $100
Raiders +4000 for $100
NY Jets over 5.5 for $250
Broncos under 10 for $250
Bengals under 10 for $200
Bills over 11.5 for $200
Patriots under 8.5 for $100
Cardinals under 10 for $100
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Panthers over 6 for $100
Barely placed it before it went off the board. I imagine it will be o/u 8 very soon.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Yes, the woeful Jets, who have had two winning seasons since 2007, have more bets on them to win the AFC East at DraftKings Sportsbook than the New England Patriots!
"A young team with a ton of talent led by a second-year QB (Zach Wilson, the No. 2 pick in 2021) that has a chance to explode with an easier schedule? It's hard to blame bettors for seeing the Cincinnati Bengals when they look at this season's Jets team," Newman explained.
As I explained after the draft I believe the Jets will exceed expectations. The youth, stellar draft, another year for Zach Wilson and easy schedule they will win at least 6 games. As for the East, highly doubtful but I was pretty surprised they are getting more action than the Patriots. One explanation is the longer odds.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
The Pats pretty much did nothing to better the team going into this season in my opinion.
One positive is the got rid of K’Neal Harry though
I still think they will finish ahead of the Jets though
You don’t like the Bengals this year?
Last year they played a last place schedule. I can’t see them winning 10 games with a first place schedule. They won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year.
AFC North final standings 2022
Ravens
Bengals
Steelers
Browns
Of course all this hinges on a # of factors.
Watsons suspension. Lamar Jackson not getting hurt or sick. Mitch Trubisky with a solid coaching staff. But I think I’m spot on. I have my doubts the Bengals make the playoffs.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Tough to see them falling off to the point of not making the playoffs, they are a strong team or were last year as we all know.
I highly doubt Watson is going to play much this year, Trubitsky is the worst QB out of these guys, Lamar’s game has been figured out I think. IDK we will see
The Ravens have the luxury this year of playing a last place schedule with a roster that can easily win this division. I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t sweep or at least go 5-1.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Covid had taken its toll on the poker rooms in Shreveport- Bossier City since 2020. I’m not sure exactly how long they were shut down but I found entertainment elsewhere. Got the bug last night to sit and play a bit. After all it’s 106 degrees here and free air conditioning comes as a perk.
The night started great with a $300 but in and 3 hands in pocket QQ’s against pocket KK’s and I spiked a Q on the flop. Another player came along with Q8 two pair on the flop. Before it’s over I’m all in and a $900 pot. Two hours later and an uneventful evening I cashed out with $810.00. That brings me to the Swami post.
With my lone $10 bill I decided to give back to Louisiana sports book with this incredible bet.
Bills 17-0. 35-1. $10.
That is all folks.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Nice work Joe!
...
Your Bills have one year, one more year, to get to the promised land. After that the Pats will be back to being the divisions Daddy again. Next off-season will see the Pats with an overabundance of cap room. And they will be back. This year will see the exact opposite of a sophomore slump from Mac, and a Pats team that shows discipline and plays hard. I don't expect them to make much noise, but they will be getting ready for the following season. So whether you go 17-0 or just win the division, if you want that elusive trophy you better get it this year.
Folks still don't get it, Chargers going to be scary good as Herbert emerges to elite status...............
Oh I get it. In another post I said it the most competitive division in football. When you have a top QB you will always be scary.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Swami added another wager to this year’s preseason.
LA Rams Division winner
$125 to win $100
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Final NFL futures wagers
Super Bowl Odds
Bills +600 for $100
Raiders +4000 for $100
Win Totals
NY Jets over 5.5 for $250
Broncos under 10 for $250
Bengals under 10 for $200
Bills over 11.5 for $200
Patriots under 8.5 for $100
Cardinals under 10 for $100
Cowboys under 10.5 for $100
Rams over 10.5 for $100
Eagles over 8 for $100
Raiders over 8.5 for $100
Panthers over 6 for $100
Bills $10 17-0 35-1
Rams division $125 to win $100
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Interesting quirk in the NFL schedule week 1. There are 10 home dogs.
Betting home dogs is usually very profitable as bettors love their favorites and Las Vegas loves taking money from scratch bettors. But week one is an awful time to bet under dogs. Las Vegas wants you to win week one to suck you in forever so favorites typically do well. But I digress.
Im doing an inexpensive experiment
$10 on each home dog
Rams +2.5
Lions +5
Texans +8
Bears +7.5
Jets +8.5
Falcons +5.5
Cardinals +4.5
Vikings +3.5
Cowboys +2
Seahawks +7
My regular week One picks later this week.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Nice joe! Good to see you back and ready for NFL
Glad you're back swami!
I'm off to look at a car pretty soon and then to the casino to place a few bets.
Probably going with....
Bills -2.5 over Rams but might take the moneyline
Cowboys +1.5 over Bucs
Raiders +4 over Chargers
Eagles -4.5 over LIons
Think I'll stay away from a Chiefs bet, I think they'll win but I just don't like the -4.5
I think the Ravens -6 looks good Sunday.
Now that Lance has taken over in SF, LA Rams to win that division $125 to win $100 is my top play. There’s a reason Jimmy G is still around.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Thanks my friend. We’ll see how it goes this time around. I won’t be offering my opinion on teams, players or posters unless it’s to bash my Bills. That’s pretty safe here.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
....
Looking at that list of home dogs, I would think the Lions (vs Eagles) ad Falcons (vs Saints) might win outright. So I am surprised at the spread being so much.
I'm kind of glad labor day weekend is almost over, its been expensive.
Bought a roto tiller and grass seed, then a Toyota Camry, then my football picks.
Went with Bills, KC, and Dallas.
And Prop bet KC to win Super Bowl.
Its weird, I can post on here that I probably won't bet on Chiefs, but when I'm at an
actual sportsbook its like, okay how much am I going to wager on the Chiefs.
Took the moneyline though so all they have to do is win.
I think the Vikings may win outright and Bears and Rams look mighty tempting.
I remember 2019 opening day
Ravens 59
Miami 10
2020 opening day
Ravens 38
Browns 6
When the Browns were the hot team
I foresee the same results
Ravens 31
Jets 10
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
After much seesawing back and forth. Calculating statistics from the past 60 years, studying the moon phase and geometric position of SoFi stadium in relation to the pacific weather patterns I’ve decided to take:
Buffalo-2.5 for 50.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Has this line moved quite a bit?
Congrats 2deuces on the Bills performance especially in the second half.
In hindsight I don't know why I was scared of the odds and took the moneyline,
The game went pretty much like I thought it would with punches being traded
in the first half and then the Bills exerting their will over a hapless opponent in the second half.
Rams on offense are already showing they're a one trick pony with Cooper Kupp.
+50
Good start to the season with the smallish wager on Thursday.
I’ve already placed my wager on Baltimore as I got it at -6. More tomorrow morning as I’ll be driving to the casino early and back home for noon kick off
Baltimore-6 for 50
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Wow. Is it really 5 am? Just getting in from a marathon session of holdem. Sometimes you stay too long. Was up $600 at midnight, the game was good, plenty of loose players and my cards were solid. Unfortunately I was never able to take advantage of any of the above and slowly anted myself into a $300 profit at 4 and came home. So no visits to the casino this morning but I did play one more game.
My opening Sunday wagers
Baltimore-6 for 50
Philly-5.5 for 25
Good luck everyone and I’ll set the alarm for the noon kickoff
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
dueces i love your lifestyle. gl with the wagers
my one and only today. yes, going against Kyler and my avatar bet, but when it comes to real cash, all bets are...............on
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Philly 17 point lead in the 4th. Blown.
Chiefs-6 for 50
Vikings-2 for 25
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Both those teams covered. So far home dogs are 5-3 although the Vikings like changed drastically by game time. So if one more home dog covers it would be 60% opening day.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
+150 for the year
Bucs -2.5 for 25
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
+175
Not a bad start for the season. If Philly didn’t give up a 17 point 4th quarter lead I would have swept opening weekend. I’m going to pass on tonight’s game. I’m not buying in on all the hype with Denver but don’t have the guts to take Seattle. It’s on to Kansas City Thursday night.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
nice week 1 dueces. my week 2 parlay
+87.04
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
So the home dog experiment worked about how I figured it would. They covered 60% this weekend.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
I’m not counting it but I picked the Chiefs straight up but changed my picks on pick em to the Chargers and laid 25 at +4 minutes before game time. Went to bed after that terrible pick six and saw I back doored a win.
Everett was gassed, asking to come out and coaches waved him back in. Herbert concentrating on the play call missed that whole sequence. That’s on the coaches, not on Herbert or Everett. They should have pulled him, huddled and settled down. That’s why I turned it off. The Chargers are still the Chargers. Always find some way to lose. An aside note. No matter the hype on Herbert he’s not even close to Josh Allen. I doubt anyone can disagree.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Allen is the best QB in the league. Herbert is right up there but I'd take Allen without question.
I took the 4 points, I knew the game would be a close, made for TV game with all the fixings
.
Yep. Chargers gonna be Chargers. Always seem to find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Some early thoughts.
Miami hasn’t won in Baltimore since 1997.
There are 4 double digit favorites this week. The #’s are very deceiving and complicated. I’m going to break it down to just a few.
Over all past 30 years 47% cover.
Last 5 years 57% cover.
Good teams that lost the week before 71%
What’s all that mean. Very good teams against bad teams win by a lot and usually a lot more than 10. Far too early in the season to separate the very very good from the very bad.
@Buffalo-10 vs Tennessee
@LA Rams -10 vs Atlanta
@Denver -10 vs Houston
@Green Bay -10 vs Chicago
Can I see 3 of these teams cover? Absolutely.
What do I see as my best early play at this point
Baltimore-3
Raiders-5.5
Bengals-7 (is this actually a 10 point spread because Dallas is at home?)
One thing scares me is 99.99999% of the world will be on Cincinnati. The others will be the most die hard Cowboy fans or guys that went to college with Cooper Rush
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
2deuces, thanks for the thoughts.
I'll more than likely be going to the casino tomorrow to place bets and cash in last weeks wins.
I like Buffalo and the Rams to cover the 10 point spread a lot more than Denver and Green Bay.
I do not like the Ravens at -3, I think the Dolphins will beat them and may bet on it.
...
What makes you think this? ... askin for a friend
Funny how the NFL gives Dallas the cake schedule but then they lose Dak in the first game and them getting to the playoffs for ratings blows up in thier faces.
"When they can't find anything wrong with you, they create it!"
I see the 49ers inching into double digits favorites. I’m a little shocked honestly. I don’t see them as more than a 6.5 point favorite. Kittle still isn’t playing and a nagging groin injury could linger all year.
You can blame me for that. I help my daughter in her fantasy league and the last two years her TE’s sucked so I had her pass up a top 10 receiver and draft Kittle. Ugh. Well I had her pick Mike Williams with her next pick so that paid off already.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Because of Washington, Giants and sometimes Philly the Cowboys have history had the easiest strength of schedule. For years it was New England with the rubbish they played in their division for 20 years
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
The Ravens are just....................... the Ravens. Never seem to do anything impressive team wise.
The Dolphins are up and comers. Strong defense. I think they will be too much for Lamar and Company to handle.
Now if Tua could actually hit Tyreek in stride it could be a blow out.
..
We were playing Buffalo. Now you get to play us. You're welcome.
I know it was Buffalo too. I’m not afraid to say they couldn’t field a competitive team for years. Didn’t hurt the Patriots chalking up 6 wins before the season started on their way to a first round bye.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
..
In defense of my team, the narrative that they only could beat division opponents (not saying that you're saying that) was false.
You don’t go 16-0 just playing cream puffs.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
My NFL bets.....
Dolphins +3.5
Giants -1.5
Bills -9.5