What factors are causing our hobby to boom?

Catbert

Was reflecting on this while cutting my lawn. Know that @Gazes posted similarly regarding higher valued coins.

What are the factors driving higher coin prices seen recently? Price guide upticks have been published. Is it:

Pent up demand – during the lockdowns, hobbies flourished, and this passion continued once economy opened again. Definitely a factor.

Stimulus payments – acted as an accelerant, but these funds should be exhausted now.

Demographic trends – the boomers are retiring in ever higher numbers averaging 8-10,000 retiring every year for the next 19 years. However, 45% of them have no retirement savings. Americans aged 65-74 typically spend 55K annually (not a good combination!). Our hobby is driven by discretionary income, but are there enough wealthy boomers to be a cause?

Bullion pricing – trending up considerably over last 5 years. Always a factor.

Inflation – this may be a driver just starting to kick in.

Hobby cycles – it this a normal uptick after being down for so long? Perhaps.

My conclusion is a combination of pent-up demand, bullion pricing, and inflationary trends.

What are your thoughts?

ms71

Shoveling money into the economy + the ensuing rebirth of inflation = flight to tangible assets.

oih82w8

Hype...lots of hype. Century of the Morgan/Peace Dollar as an example, have drove the prices, for the Peace Dollar primarily up. I heard a radio announcement of a bag of 1921 Morgan Dollars from the "iconic" Philadelphia Mint in guaranteed XF (or may have been VF) condition...they never mentioned the price though.

WCC

The asset mania might be part of it but whatever the supposed reason, it's psychologically driven. It doesn't have to be just boomers, as even a low fraction of 1% of the affluent adding money to their coin budget can or will have an outsized impact. The value of all collectible coins is a rounding error in the context of all the fake "wealth" floating around from the asset mania.

PeakRarities

@ms71 said:
Shoveling money into the economy + the ensuing rebirth of inflation = flight to tangible assets.

I wholeheartedly agree with this. I for one am in my mid 20s, and I could be considered to be one of the people driving up the prices, I just recently got back to this hobby from about 5-6 years ago. I invest in many things - (stocks, crypto, and other intangible assets). My observations of the economy over the past year have led me to start losing faith in the aforementioned intangible assets, the market is a socially acceptable casino and the fed has been pumping out dollars. Nothing makes sense, houses are at all time highs. In Florida a 200k house a few years ago is now 450k. My 2017 Mercedes that I bought a YEAR AND A HALF ago could be traded in for what I bought it for. All of these factors me to believe that numismatic coins overall are a relatively safe investment, as well as getting to enjoy it and have fun collecting, so its like a win-win for me. Even if I'm buying coins now that are at a peak I believe that over the next several decades the market values will trade harmoniously with the value of the dollar. If I lose some money because of the timing, then oh well, I still love the coins and had fun on my journey to obtain them so I have lost nothing.

joeykoins

Well, besides the forcing of being home these previous months, boredom, I would also have to say that YouTube, plays a huge role in people getting on board. Esp. all the "CoinRollHunter's" as myself. Videos of the actual Coin Shows, make the viewer appear to actually be there. Walking the aisles and taking up-close pictures of coins, make you want to go yourself.
Live Streams, teach the public more about our hobby in a big way too. Many youngsters on YouTube are contributors for even the young crowds.

AMRC

In terms of total dollars, the coin market is much thinner than most people think.

bronzemat

@joeykoins said:
Well, besides the forcing of being home these previous months, boredom, I would also have to say that YouTube, plays a huge role in people getting on board. Esp. all the "CoinRollHunter's" as myself. Videos of the actual Coin Shows, make the viewer appear to actually be there. Walking the aisles and taking up-close pictures of coins, make you want to go yourself.
Live Streams, teach the public more about our hobby in a big way too. Many youngsters on YouTube are contributors for even the young crowds.

The coin market is thriving with YN on instagram too. I assume because it could be shared with masses instead of the carpet floor in a bedroom like I had to grow up in the 80s when I was a kid.

291fifth

An unusually high percentage of people who collect coins have the "stacker" mentality. Add in a serious threat of inflation and they run to assets they feel will hold their value. There is no certainty that the collectibles they buy will hold their value but they discount any negative information they encounter. My own personal feeling is that most collectibles are now seriously overvalued, especially those that are common but popular.

We have now gone for more than ten years with no ability to make any money from savings. Interest rates paid to savers are insultingly low. This inability to make any money from savings also serves to pump more money into asset buying such as collectibles.

WCC

@291fifth said:
An unusually high percentage of people who collect coins have the "stacker" mentality. Add in a serious threat of inflation and they run to assets they feel will hold their value.

I agree but my inference is that these buyers tend to concentrate in a (very) narrow range of coins. Predominantly (pseudo) metal substitutes such as (lower premium) NCLT, common crowns (such as Morgan and Peace dollars), and generic gold (mostly US). A low proportion of these buyers seem to concentrate in the same coins, but those with (much) higher premiums.

Predominantly financially minded or motivated buyers are mostly or entirely ignoring the vast majority of coinage, as it isn't usually a substitute "investment".

@291fifth said:
There is no certainty that the collectibles they buy will hold their value but they discount any negative information they encounter. My own personal feeling is that most collectibles are now seriously overvalued, especially those that are common but popular.

I share the same sentiments.

Since I expect most Americans decades from now to be poorer or a lot poorer, I concurrently expect most collectible coins (especially US which have had an outsized price level my entire life being the most financialized) will lose noticeable proportional value, though presumably inflation adjusted. Coins are a discretionary luxury purchase which no one actually needs for any purpose. A much poorer population and collectible base will be both less willing and able to pay current much less higher prices.

If the buyer treats it predominantly as a consumption expense, what I just wrote doesn't matter. Most buyers usually do care about the financial outcome.

vulcanize

From what I have seen and learnt in the past two years, the covid lockdwons in the first quarter followed by the many stimulus checks gave a lot of people the time and resources to dabble in the world of numismatics.
My own kid is one of the YN's that got hooked on to it solely for flipping, making tidy profits in all his sales (and those include the not so cheap morgans, the reverse proof ASE's a few gold coins including eagles etc.) and had called me this past weekend wanting to sell some of my stuff.

Cougar1978

Boom lol? It’s all hype IMO. Generic Dollars way over valued possibly over promoted in my view. A friend complained “they won’t pay the money” in a bay auction getting only $35 on a PCGS 70 mod commem dollar - MV $75. He started auc at $9.95 I told him from now on start at 60 pct mv. If can’t get even that then time fold the present hand.

Then you have the “what did it go way over MV” show here. Entertaining but not a market indicator lol.

Many friends complaining sales slow or bidding activity low online auc. No I don’t believe it’s a bull market by any stretch of imagination. 2020 may have had an uptick but a temp thing. Many players have run out of money or worried it’s going to run out soon. Another friend Jim his coin biz “in the tank, stuff not moving, buyers seem broke or won’t pay the money.” simply a tax shelter. People are starting to realize the tough times still on the field and not going away any time soon.

For me its what I see on the bourse and online in moving material vs some wealthy player or promoter here. If show buyers weak on buying the junk box material at a show it’s really in trouble.

Assuming your not wealthy, Whatever hobby your in I would not budget more than 10 pct for it if even that.

MilesWaits

My beloved accountant of many years retired this year. He asked me if he could pick my brain about bullion purchase. I said hell yes. I asked why. He said “for all the reasons above stated by the brilliant forum members”

Gazes

@WCC said:

@291fifth said:
An unusually high percentage of people who collect coins have the "stacker" mentality. Add in a serious threat of inflation and they run to assets they feel will hold their value.

I agree but my inference is that these buyers tend to concentrate in a (very) narrow range of coins. Predominantly (pseudo) metal substitutes such as (lower premium) NCLT, common crowns (such as Morgan and Peace dollars), and generic gold (mostly US). A low proportion of these buyers seem to concentrate in the same coins, but those with (much) higher premiums.

Predominantly financially minded or motivated buyers are mostly or entirely ignoring the vast majority of coinage, as it isn't usually a substitute "investment".

@291fifth said:
There is no certainty that the collectibles they buy will hold their value but they discount any negative information they encounter. My own personal feeling is that most collectibles are now seriously overvalued, especially those that are common but popular.

I share the same sentiments.

Since I expect most Americans decades from now to be poorer or a lot poorer, I concurrently expect most collectible coins (especially US which have had an outsized price level my entire life being the most financialized) will lose noticeable proportional value, though presumably inflation adjusted. Coins are a discretionary luxury purchase which no one actually needs for any purpose. A much poorer population and collectible base will be both less willing and able to pay current much less higher prices.

If the buyer treats it predominantly as a consumption expense, what I just wrote doesn't matter. Most buyers usually do care about the financial outcome.

I dont expect most Americans to be poor or a lot poorer as you say. Warren Buffett recently wrote "In its brief 232 years of existence...there has been no incubator for unleashing human potential as America. Despite some severe interruptions, our country's economic progress has been breathtaking. Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America." I agree with Buffett and as I have said in other other posts I expect condition census US coins to do very well over the next decade (and I stated this before the current boom).

291fifth

@Gazes said:

@WCC said:

@291fifth said:
An unusually high percentage of people who collect coins have the "stacker" mentality. Add in a serious threat of inflation and they run to assets they feel will hold their value.

I agree but my inference is that these buyers tend to concentrate in a (very) narrow range of coins. Predominantly (pseudo) metal substitutes such as (lower premium) NCLT, common crowns (such as Morgan and Peace dollars), and generic gold (mostly US). A low proportion of these buyers seem to concentrate in the same coins, but those with (much) higher premiums.

Predominantly financially minded or motivated buyers are mostly or entirely ignoring the vast majority of coinage, as it isn't usually a substitute "investment".

@291fifth said:
There is no certainty that the collectibles they buy will hold their value but they discount any negative information they encounter. My own personal feeling is that most collectibles are now seriously overvalued, especially those that are common but popular.

I share the same sentiments.

Since I expect most Americans decades from now to be poorer or a lot poorer, I concurrently expect most collectible coins (especially US which have had an outsized price level my entire life being the most financialized) will lose noticeable proportional value, though presumably inflation adjusted. Coins are a discretionary luxury purchase which no one actually needs for any purpose. A much poorer population and collectible base will be both less willing and able to pay current much less higher prices.

If the buyer treats it predominantly as a consumption expense, what I just wrote doesn't matter. Most buyers usually do care about the financial outcome.

I dont expect most Americans to be poor or a lot poorer as you say. Warren Buffett recently wrote "In its brief 232 years of existence...there has been no incubator for unleashing human potential as America. Despite some severe interruptions, our country's economic progress has been breathtaking. Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America." I agree with Buffett and as I have said in other other posts I expect condition census US coins to do very well over the next decade (and I stated this before the current boom).

"Condition Census" coins make up a tiny fraction of 1% of the coin market.

Gazes

@291fifth said:

@Gazes said:

@WCC said:

@291fifth said:
An unusually high percentage of people who collect coins have the "stacker" mentality. Add in a serious threat of inflation and they run to assets they feel will hold their value.

I agree but my inference is that these buyers tend to concentrate in a (very) narrow range of coins. Predominantly (pseudo) metal substitutes such as (lower premium) NCLT, common crowns (such as Morgan and Peace dollars), and generic gold (mostly US). A low proportion of these buyers seem to concentrate in the same coins, but those with (much) higher premiums.

Predominantly financially minded or motivated buyers are mostly or entirely ignoring the vast majority of coinage, as it isn't usually a substitute "investment".

@291fifth said:
There is no certainty that the collectibles they buy will hold their value but they discount any negative information they encounter. My own personal feeling is that most collectibles are now seriously overvalued, especially those that are common but popular.

I share the same sentiments.

Since I expect most Americans decades from now to be poorer or a lot poorer, I concurrently expect most collectible coins (especially US which have had an outsized price level my entire life being the most financialized) will lose noticeable proportional value, though presumably inflation adjusted. Coins are a discretionary luxury purchase which no one actually needs for any purpose. A much poorer population and collectible base will be both less willing and able to pay current much less higher prices.

If the buyer treats it predominantly as a consumption expense, what I just wrote doesn't matter. Most buyers usually do care about the financial outcome.

I dont expect most Americans to be poor or a lot poorer as you say. Warren Buffett recently wrote "In its brief 232 years of existence...there has been no incubator for unleashing human potential as America. Despite some severe interruptions, our country's economic progress has been breathtaking. Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America." I agree with Buffett and as I have said in other other posts I expect condition census US coins to do very well over the next decade (and I stated this before the current boom).

"Condition Census" coins make up a tiny fraction of 1% of the coin market.

My main point is that I dont expect most Americans to be poorer. As an aside, i am bullish on condition census coins. Doesnt mean I'm not bullish on other coins but i dont follow them as closely as i do top 5 pop coins.

coinbuf

Two things that you did not mention which are big factors is the on-going stimulus that working from home workers are enjoying, which is still a huge portion of the white collar workforce. These individuals are receiving the same (or higher) paycheck each month while not having to incur the costs of transportation and the other costs of working at the office vs at home.

And secondly has been the lack of anywhere/anything else to spend all the extra discretionary income on or at. This is slowly changing as concerts, movie theaters, dining, and other discretionary spending venues continue to open and provide other avenues for these monies to be spent.

However not all the workforce will return to the office anytime soon and some will for different reasons not go to theaters or restaurant dining in the near future. That extra "free" spending money may still continue to funnel into the hobby for awhile.

mynamespat

There also seems to be another flare up of "Alternative Investments" lately. It looks awfully similar to the bubble of the late 80s/early 90s.

WCC

@Gazes said:

@WCC said:

@291fifth said:
An unusually high percentage of people who collect coins have the "stacker" mentality. Add in a serious threat of inflation and they run to assets they feel will hold their value.

I agree but my inference is that these buyers tend to concentrate in a (very) narrow range of coins. Predominantly (pseudo) metal substitutes such as (lower premium) NCLT, common crowns (such as Morgan and Peace dollars), and generic gold (mostly US). A low proportion of these buyers seem to concentrate in the same coins, but those with (much) higher premiums.

Predominantly financially minded or motivated buyers are mostly or entirely ignoring the vast majority of coinage, as it isn't usually a substitute "investment".

@291fifth said:
There is no certainty that the collectibles they buy will hold their value but they discount any negative information they encounter. My own personal feeling is that most collectibles are now seriously overvalued, especially those that are common but popular.

I share the same sentiments.

Since I expect most Americans decades from now to be poorer or a lot poorer, I concurrently expect most collectible coins (especially US which have had an outsized price level my entire life being the most financialized) will lose noticeable proportional value, though presumably inflation adjusted. Coins are a discretionary luxury purchase which no one actually needs for any purpose. A much poorer population and collectible base will be both less willing and able to pay current much less higher prices.

If the buyer treats it predominantly as a consumption expense, what I just wrote doesn't matter. Most buyers usually do care about the financial outcome.

I dont expect most Americans to be poor or a lot poorer as you say. Warren Buffett recently wrote "In its brief 232 years of existence...there has been no incubator for unleashing human potential as America. Despite some severe interruptions, our country's economic progress has been breathtaking. Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America." I agree with Buffett and as I have said in other other posts I expect condition census US coins to do very well over the next decade (and I stated this before the current boom).

Longer term, I'll go with physics over Buffet, every time. His quote is a slogan and nothing more. There isn't ever something for nothing which is what I'd have to believe to agree with him.

After decades of the country and a noticeable percentage (if not majority) of the population living beyond its means, not only will there be limited to no negative consequences, the majority of the US population can expect higher living standards because "this is America" and exempt from the economic reality which applies to everyone else. This is what I am supposed to believe, right?

The economy since 2008 is substantially artificial, dependent upon unprecedented "peacetime" government deficits, the most collectively overpriced asset markets in history, and the loosest aggregate credit conditions ever supporting mountains of debt.

Most if not all of the fake economic "growth" since 2008 would disappear entirely if government deficits as a percent of GDP were equivalent to pre-2008. If the fundamentals were (or are) so fantastic prior to COVID, why hasn't monetary policy (FRB balance sheet and interest rates) been "normalized" to resemble pre-2008?

It's taken a parabolic debt increase (government and private) since 2000 to enable the mediocre economic performance of the last 20 years. Just wait and see what happens when the unfounded optimism supporting this economy and financial markets reverses.

No, I am not predicting the "end of the world". Yes, I am predicting the consequences are going to be a lot worse than you, Buffet and the majority believe. It won't be "tomorrow", it won't be linear, and the consequences won't last "forever", but the idea that living standards in this country aren't highly artificial is a complete fantasy.

As for the coins you reference, you may be right in the shorter term,. Not saying you won't be. A lot can happen between "now" and "then".

Desert Moon

I think it is simple, home during the pandemic instead of going to the day job 5 times a week. People were bored, they went on the internet, and, suddenly our neighborhood was flooded with walkers, runners, cyclists bc they were not working. So the pandemic brought on alot of leisure time and folks thus did more leisure activities. And of course, what better way to alleve boredom - buy buy buy! Or get out and exercise and become more healthy.

Probably brought alot of new numismatists into collecting wtih all of that boredom and leisure time. So maybe this will keep going for a while until everyone is too busy working again.

Best, SH

HalfDimeDude

Dealers who have web sites, or sell on line have had a great year due to covid. People shopping on line rather than a show. One of my dealer friends told me that last year was his best so far.
As he has an on line store.
I also believe that with death tolls from covid among baby boomers who have collected for decades have or are passing . Freeing up inventories to add to the market place.
As I have had dealers friends tell me that more than some care to accept have lost good customers due to covid, and the famlies only wish to sell off the collection.

Jzyskowski1

I would like to mention that people learn as they go. When you discover something new that has value, do you think they forget that. How about the first time they hold a coin that’s so dang beautiful that they can’t believe it. Hold a bb card Not much Heft a Morgan or ase. People may change their feelings about what they learn but don’t generally don’t forget.
This hobby is exploding. Just not in a familiar way. Thanks 🙀🤠

Elcontador

@spacehayduke said:
I think it is simple, home during the pandemic instead of going to the day job 5 times a week. People were bored, they went on the internet, and, suddenly our neighborhood was flooded with walkers, runners, cyclists bc they were not working. So the pandemic brought on alot of leisure time and folks thus did more leisure activities. And of course, what better way to alleve boredom - buy buy buy! Or get out and exercise and become more healthy.

Probably brought alot of new numismatists into collecting wtih all of that boredom and leisure time. So maybe this will keep going for a while until everyone is too busy working again.

Best, SH

The above is spot on; thanks for writing it SH. I'll just add that while many were out exercising, some of those with lots of money were stuck at home, and bought expensive coins because they had the money, and not too much else to do.

I don't think our hobby is booming; the prices for the most expensive coins are going up. Big difference.
Anecdotally, I can tell you of a number of coins that were worth far more twenty five years ago than they are today.

thefinn

Just putting fiat currency into something of substance. You buy 10 carat flawless diamonds, not 1 carat VS1s.

pcgscacgold

After looking around at the last few shows that I have attended it is hard to say the hobby is booming. The population remains elderly and attendance low. Yes COVID affects that but if people really wanted to see coins they would. There were 45,000 fans at BB games this past weekend. Same for NFL and College games so people are not all that concerned about crowds (well back to the fact that the hobby is mostly elderly and staying safe might be why attendance at shows is low).
There was a lot of bullion being bought at the shows but not coins.

coinbuf

@pcgscacgold said:
After looking around at the last few shows that I have attended it is hard to say the hobby is booming. The population remains elderly and attendance low. Yes COVID affects that but if people really wanted to see coins they would. There were 45,000 fans at BB games this past weekend. Same for NFL and College games so people are not all that concerned about crowds (well back to the fact that the hobby is mostly elderly and staying safe might be why attendance at shows is low).
There was a lot of bullion being bought at the shows but not coins.

Maybe this says more about the restrictions the shows are putting on attendees than anything else.

bolivarshagnasty

What if all of this is nothing more that a short term uptick? The PCGS3000 has been falling for at least 15 years. Only recently has it been in the green.

pcgscacgold

@coinbuf said:

@pcgscacgold said:
After looking around at the last few shows that I have attended it is hard to say the hobby is booming. The population remains elderly and attendance low. Yes COVID affects that but if people really wanted to see coins they would. There were 45,000 fans at BB games this past weekend. Same for NFL and College games so people are not all that concerned about crowds (well back to the fact that the hobby is mostly elderly and staying safe might be why attendance at shows is low).
There was a lot of bullion being bought at the shows but not coins.

Maybe this says more about the restrictions the shows are putting on attendees than anything else.

Zero COVID restrictions here so that is not the case.

coinbuf

@pcgscacgold said:

@coinbuf said:

@pcgscacgold said:
After looking around at the last few shows that I have attended it is hard to say the hobby is booming. The population remains elderly and attendance low. Yes COVID affects that but if people really wanted to see coins they would. There were 45,000 fans at BB games this past weekend. Same for NFL and College games so people are not all that concerned about crowds (well back to the fact that the hobby is mostly elderly and staying safe might be why attendance at shows is low).
There was a lot of bullion being bought at the shows but not coins.

Maybe this says more about the restrictions the shows are putting on attendees than anything else.

Zero COVID restrictions here so that is not the case.

Same here as I attended the local show this past weekend with no restrictions. However LB was a very different story and I have read many comments by members here that smack with disdain and outright hate for shows (and show attendees) that have (or observe) few or no restrictions.

pmh1nic

I don't know the exact number but around 50% of the money in our economy was "created" in the last 2 years. That money has to go somewhere. Much of it went into equities and real estate. Some went into crypto, gold and silver (all up from 2019). If even a fraction of those trillions went into numismatic coins it sends the prices higher.

But as others have said this is prosperity floating on a huge sea of debt created during a period of near zero interest rates, "free" money...not. I'm not an economist but my basic understanding of economics tells me this scenario is unsustainable. Nothing is free. How all of this ultimately gets paid for I don't know.

Along

I think that another small positive contributor this year was the mint. They released a lot of new product that went up in price on the secondary market. This was seen as a positive to many newer collectors and encouraged them to keep going.

jmlanzaf

@coinbuf said:

@pcgscacgold said:
After looking around at the last few shows that I have attended it is hard to say the hobby is booming. The population remains elderly and attendance low. Yes COVID affects that but if people really wanted to see coins they would. There were 45,000 fans at BB games this past weekend. Same for NFL and College games so people are not all that concerned about crowds (well back to the fact that the hobby is mostly elderly and staying safe might be why attendance at shows is low).
There was a lot of bullion being bought at the shows but not coins.

Maybe this says more about the restrictions the shows are putting on attendees than anything else.

I think it says more about the state of coin shows than anything else. Younger collectors do exist. They are perfectly comfortable working in a virtual realm.

vulcanize

@jmlanzaf said:

@coinbuf said:

@pcgscacgold said:
After looking around at the last few shows that I have attended it is hard to say the hobby is booming. The population remains elderly and attendance low. Yes COVID affects that but if people really wanted to see coins they would. There were 45,000 fans at BB games this past weekend. Same for NFL and College games so people are not all that concerned about crowds (well back to the fact that the hobby is mostly elderly and staying safe might be why attendance at shows is low).
There was a lot of bullion being bought at the shows but not coins.

Maybe this says more about the restrictions the shows are putting on attendees than anything else.

I think it says more about the state of coin shows than anything else. Younger collectors do exist. They are perfectly comfortable working in a virtual realm.

I took my 16 year old son to the brick and mortar LCS (with loads of ribbons from coinshows of yesteryears) that is strictly cash only dealings having no world wide web presence whatsoever.

Very quickly the person noted that it is not possible to compete with online prices after he observed my son comparing the prices on the cell phone. Needless to say, we walked out of there empty handed since my kid found way better deals online.

Incidentally 2020 and 2021 were the best years for my LCS guy business wise and is getting ready to retire soon. Not sure how many more of such cash and carry LCS would still be around in the next few years.

Zoins

@Gazes said:

@WCC said:

@291fifth said:
An unusually high percentage of people who collect coins have the "stacker" mentality. Add in a serious threat of inflation and they run to assets they feel will hold their value.

I agree but my inference is that these buyers tend to concentrate in a (very) narrow range of coins. Predominantly (pseudo) metal substitutes such as (lower premium) NCLT, common crowns (such as Morgan and Peace dollars), and generic gold (mostly US). A low proportion of these buyers seem to concentrate in the same coins, but those with (much) higher premiums.

Predominantly financially minded or motivated buyers are mostly or entirely ignoring the vast majority of coinage, as it isn't usually a substitute "investment".

@291fifth said:
There is no certainty that the collectibles they buy will hold their value but they discount any negative information they encounter. My own personal feeling is that most collectibles are now seriously overvalued, especially those that are common but popular.

I share the same sentiments.

Since I expect most Americans decades from now to be poorer or a lot poorer, I concurrently expect most collectible coins (especially US which have had an outsized price level my entire life being the most financialized) will lose noticeable proportional value, though presumably inflation adjusted. Coins are a discretionary luxury purchase which no one actually needs for any purpose. A much poorer population and collectible base will be both less willing and able to pay current much less higher prices.

If the buyer treats it predominantly as a consumption expense, what I just wrote doesn't matter. Most buyers usually do care about the financial outcome.

I dont expect most Americans to be poor or a lot poorer as you say. Warren Buffett recently wrote "In its brief 232 years of existence...there has been no incubator for unleashing human potential as America. Despite some severe interruptions, our country's economic progress has been breathtaking. Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America." I agree with Buffett and as I have said in other other posts I expect condition census US coins to do very well over the next decade (and I stated this before the current boom).

Regardless of how the US does economically, there does seem to be a trend in the younger generations to own less physical things.

291fifth

@Zoins said:

@Gazes said:

@WCC said:

@291fifth said:
An unusually high percentage of people who collect coins have the "stacker" mentality. Add in a serious threat of inflation and they run to assets they feel will hold their value.

I agree but my inference is that these buyers tend to concentrate in a (very) narrow range of coins. Predominantly (pseudo) metal substitutes such as (lower premium) NCLT, common crowns (such as Morgan and Peace dollars), and generic gold (mostly US). A low proportion of these buyers seem to concentrate in the same coins, but those with (much) higher premiums.

Predominantly financially minded or motivated buyers are mostly or entirely ignoring the vast majority of coinage, as it isn't usually a substitute "investment".

@291fifth said:
There is no certainty that the collectibles they buy will hold their value but they discount any negative information they encounter. My own personal feeling is that most collectibles are now seriously overvalued, especially those that are common but popular.

I share the same sentiments.

Since I expect most Americans decades from now to be poorer or a lot poorer, I concurrently expect most collectible coins (especially US which have had an outsized price level my entire life being the most financialized) will lose noticeable proportional value, though presumably inflation adjusted. Coins are a discretionary luxury purchase which no one actually needs for any purpose. A much poorer population and collectible base will be both less willing and able to pay current much less higher prices.

If the buyer treats it predominantly as a consumption expense, what I just wrote doesn't matter. Most buyers usually do care about the financial outcome.

I dont expect most Americans to be poor or a lot poorer as you say. Warren Buffett recently wrote "In its brief 232 years of existence...there has been no incubator for unleashing human potential as America. Despite some severe interruptions, our country's economic progress has been breathtaking. Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America." I agree with Buffett and as I have said in other other posts I expect condition census US coins to do very well over the next decade (and I stated this before the current boom).

Regardless of how the US does economically, there does seem to be a trend in the younger generations to own less physical things.

Owning fewer "things" is actually a good idea. Most people have far too much "stuff".

Jzyskowski1

Zoins.I’ve got a full time 8 year old grandson. Thats just not the situation around here and I mean the whole area. Kids and young people place incredible value on “things”. I don’t know where to begin but that’s just not how it is.

morgandollar1878

@joeykoins said:
Well, besides the forcing of being home these previous months, boredom, I would also have to say that YouTube, plays a huge role in people getting on board. Esp. all the "CoinRollHunter's" as myself. Videos of the actual Coin Shows, make the viewer appear to actually be there. Walking the aisles and taking up-close pictures of coins, make you want to go yourself.
Live Streams, teach the public more about our hobby in a big way too. Many youngsters on YouTube are contributors for even the young crowds.

This is a great point and has been much needed for a while now.

Zoins

@Jzyskowski1 said:
Zoins.I’ve got a full time 8 year old grandson. Thats just not the situation around here and I mean the whole area. Kids and young people place incredible value on “things”. I don’t know where to begin but that’s just not how it is.

I'm aware of the situation you state. I think the different view may start after one gets a job and needs to pay for things oneself

Jzyskowski1

No. Most kids are making money. It’s way different from when we were young. Joey really made a good point. These kids are sharp. I’m not speculating. I am living it every day.

Zoins

@Jzyskowski1 said:
No. Most kids are making money. It’s way different from when we were young. Joey really made a good point. These kids are sharp. I’m not speculating. I am living it every day.

I know about the YouTube and Roblox millionaires who are certainly very impressive, but only a few kids are at that level or even try from my understanding. How do “most” (over 50%) kids make money at 8 years old?

ElmerFusterpuck

Interesting observations on this thread. As usual there are a few the either pretend that other platforms don't exist for our hobby or willfully ignore them and grouse about "where are the keeeeeds?!?"

ricko

Many viewpoints expressed in this thread... some, diametrically opposed. Many show obvious research and are well founded. That being said, one glaring fact remains. Economically, something must happen - we cannot continue this unrestrained spending and diluting the currency. Not sure what the final chapter will be like, but I do believe it will be a major process and will affect most of us. Fasten your financial seat belts...Cheers, RickO

Zoins

@ricko said:
Many viewpoints expressed in this thread... some, diametrically opposed. Many show obvious research and are well founded. That being said, one glaring fact remains. Economically, something must happen - we cannot continue this unrestrained spending and diluting the currency. Not sure what the final chapter will be like, but I do believe it will be a major process and will affect most of us. Fasten your financial seat belts...Cheers, RickO

Running out of money is one of the primary reasons major civilizations fail.

Jzyskowski1

@Zoins said:

@Jzyskowski1 said:
No. Most kids are making money. It’s way different from when we were young. Joey really made a good point. These kids are sharp. I’m not speculating. I am living it every day.

I know about the YouTube and Roblox millionaires who are certainly very impressive, but only a few kids are at that level or even try from my understanding. How do “most” (over 50%) kids make money at 8 years old?

Chores. These kids are buy sell trade all day.
Simply put. The internet has changed everything. Knowledge that was once secret is now available. I have noticed that this country is strong. The kids are looking forward to their lives and have every reason to work for a better tomorrow. Unfortunately many of us are looking back. 🤔

WaterSport

Lack of knowledge - a lot of BS on Facebook, Youtube, etc. They think its old, so its it worth lot, thus buying old, you must pay a Lot. More is better...

WS

ctf_error_coins

All this talk of "Free" money without context.

We are getting through a 100 year black swan event, thus the free money.

The "Free" money really helped this country and its people.

And it certainly helped the coin market

Once we are back to normal, I believe the uptrend in coins will continue.

Cougar1978

I don’t think people have enough money keep any uptrend going. Add to that uncertainty about future.

jmlanzaf

@pmh1nic said:
I don't know the exact number but around 50% of the money in our economy was "created" in the last 2 years. That money has to go somewhere. Much of it went into equities and real estate. Some went into crypto, gold and silver (all up from 2019). If even a fraction of those trillions went into numismatic coins it sends the prices higher.

But as others have said this is prosperity floating on a huge sea of debt created during a period of near zero interest rates, "free" money...not. I'm not an economist but my basic understanding of economics tells me this scenario is unsustainable. Nothing is free. How all of this ultimately gets paid for I don't know.

@Jzyskowski1 said:
Zoins.I’ve got a full time 8 year old grandson. Thats just not the situation around here and I mean the whole area. Kids and young people place incredible value on “things”. I don’t know where to begin but that’s just not how it is.

That is not what actual research demonstrates, your anecdote aside. Starting with millennial, newer generations put more value on experiences than possessions.

https://www.marketingweek.com/millennials-look-for-experiences-over-possessions/

There's a lot of sociological and marketing research that all demonstrate the same thing. 8 year old anecdotes aside.

5 year olds like playing with labels. Try to get anyone under age 70 to collect stamps.

bronzemat

@jmlanzaf said:

@pmh1nic said:

5 year olds like playing with labels. Try to get anyone under age 70 to collect stamps.

Hey, I'm 42 and still buy old stamps on occasion.

Gazes

Coins can either go down, stay the same, or go up. Everyone on these forums love coins (well almost everyone). There are alot more people not on the forums that enjoys coins too. There are a finite number of coins and lots of people who want the best coins. There have been many improvements in our hobby over the years and it's now easier to find a coin, research its price, have some faith in authenticity and grade then ever before. Given all this I would be shocked if prices went on a downward trend. I suppose prices could stay the same but prices for everything else seem to go up. The most logical conclusion are prices will go up. I'm not sure why this surprises people. It wont go up in a straight line---it may stay the same or go down in the short term but so long as there are collectors and they cant mint old new coins---the trend should be upwards.

vulcanize

@Zoins said:

@Jzyskowski1 said:
No. Most kids are making money. It’s way different from when we were young. Joey really made a good point. These kids are sharp. I’m not speculating. I am living it every day.

I know about the YouTube and Roblox millionaires who are certainly very impressive, but only a few kids are at that level or even try from my understanding. How do “most” (over 50%) kids make money at 8 years old?

My youngest just turned 16 and is not rich by any means nor does he have any youtube channel etc, but he follows quite a few of those money making ideas, helping his older brother with instacart deliveries during the pandemic lockdown. The brothers made enough to go on a weeklong vacation to California this past July and my oldest bought his own motorcycle.
He also dabbles in soccer jerseys and shoes (apart from coins) and made a tidy sum to buy his own set of wheels - a used BMW X3 nevertheless. I was mighty impressed at the level head on the shoulders of a Junior in High School because my greatest achievement at that same age was trying to score maximum number of girls
Academically is always on the high honor roll andis a HS varsity swimmer from freshman year with top sixteen achievement in state etc.
I have always told them to err on the side of caution with "calculated risks" and NOT "risky calculations" - sincerely hope he does not trip up by overextending himself.

@Zoins said:

@ricko said:
Many viewpoints expressed in this thread... some, diametrically opposed. Many show obvious research and are well founded. That being said, one glaring fact remains. Economically, something must happen - we cannot continue this unrestrained spending and diluting the currency. Not sure what the final chapter will be like, but I do believe it will be a major process and will affect most of us. Fasten your financial seat belts...Cheers, RickO

Running out of money is one of the primary reasons major civilizations fail.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/pandemic-wiped-out-savings-20-all-us-households

Edited to add quote and link.