Is the 1921 Peace Dollar market saturated?
ChrisH821
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I think it is.
I've had an ebay saved search for uncirculated 1921 Peace Dollar for years and there are more listed now than there have ever been. At what point do we decide they are overpriced and go back to pre-2020 prices? MS62's are listed around $1000, MS64's around $2000, these are not realistic levels for a readily available coin IMO.
What's your take?
Collector, occasional seller
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They aren't going back to 2020 prices unless the rest of the market goes back to 2020 prices. Look at the price of generic 1921 Morgan dollars and then ask if Peace dollars have gotten ahead of that market.
Who’s to say that both 1921 Morgan and Peace dollars haven’t gotten ahead of the market? If it appears that the marketplace has become (and remains) saturated by a particular issue, I think it’s a good indication that prices might be at or near a peak.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
It's not impossible. But there's been a general melt up in a lot of collectibles, including coins. I just use the 1921 Morgans as a rather surprising surge in what has been a low end widget forever. Even proof and mint sets have shown some price increases this year. It could be a bubble, but it doesn't have to be.
There are more collectors. That’s good. Populations increase. Wages increase. The market is not going back. It’s barely started. Wait til people can hold these new Morgan’s and peace dollars in hand. No. No going back. Commodities are up.
Now about the GameStop crowd. They learned about metals. There’s people who will hold metals and coins who didn’t use to, they did stocks. The sports card crowd put some of that money in coins and metals and there you have a couple thoughts on why things will not go back. Just my opinion. Thanks 🙏😉
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I'm not sure we have any evidence that there are "more collectors", at least not in any meaningful way. There's more money flowing out there, but that doesn't make them long-term collectors.
Exactly.
Well, just Love coins, period.
Only time will tell.
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Yes,I guess we will.
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Coin prices never go down. They just continue to appreciate in a double nuclear manner! There is no top! And remember, because you read this on the internet IT HAS TO BE TRUE!
Right now there are 190 available on eBay that are TPGS graded between MS61 and MS66.
Collector, occasional seller
Well, they're not rare, they're not even scarce, they're easy to find and their MS prices have shot up to what I consider to be absurd levels. I don't consider these to be a good buy at the moment, but I have been wrong before.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Trees don't grow to the sky. Maybe a bubble.
I’ve been tracking the 1921 Peace market for the past year. They were almost impossible to find a year ago, when the price guide was roughly 1/2, or in some cases, 1/3 of what is today - I suspect there were a lot folks trying to get ahead of the market, and anything priced around retail was quickly scooped up.
Today, the market seems saturated. Prices seem to be softening from the peak a few months ago as more coins come to market and sit in dealer inventories for longer. The market is doing what it’s supposed to do: higher prices bring out more coins from the woodwork and as supply exceeds demand prices taper and eventually fall.
That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a second surge when the 2021 issues finally come to market. If the coin looks nice, more people will want it, and that will create another demand bump for the original. I have a duplicate 1921 that I probably should have sold a few months ago, and am now thinking I’ll sell when the 2021s come out.
I hear the same discussion concerning the 1911-D Indian quarter eagle and the MCMVII High Relief Saint-Gaudens double eagle. Don't forget the demand side of the supply-demand side of the equation. These coins are fairly common and readily available but there is a very high demand for these coins which determines their price.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
The examples you gave are coins that aren’t especially rare, which typically enjoy strong demand. And among others, you could add 1909-S VDB cents. However, while also popular, 1921 Peace Dollars are far more common. And their current increased availability at much higher price levels, represents a different situation from the other coins.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
It will be interesting to revisit this discussion two years from now.... I believe high quality specimens will remain strong... but likely a significant drop in the lower MS grades.... Cheers, RickO
Agreed. I will wait to get a 1921 to pair with the 2021 for just this reason 👍🏼
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I recently bought a low-MS example for my Peace date set. I hate buying at the top of a market, but needed it for my set and couldn’t say for sure that prices would drop. I do like the coin and plan to hold it long-term (it’s already at PCGS for a reholder and glamour shot). I also have a 2021 coming soon.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
I don’t know did 1909s VDBs ever come down in price ? Popular can override supply
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
The poorly struck specimens are likely to take a big hit when the market for 1921 Peace Dollars cools. They are not attractive looking coins and at the moment seeing to be riding the wave of popularity. The smart collectors are putting their money into the well struck examples.
There are collectors that tend to hoard this coin, weakness in price will give more opportunity for these collectors to continue to add to their stash.
US Mint just sold 200,000 Peace tribute coins for 4X melt. They are preselling on ebay for $250.
Do not underestimate demand.
I wouldn't call really nice '21 Morgans widgets though.
I bought mine for 85 bucks but not sure I will ever get it
I’ll give you $90 right now. You guarantee my sale PM me
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A wise coin dealer once remarked: “there are no rare coins, only fewer bags.”
One dealer at the Baltimore show a number of years ago had 3,000+ 1921 Peace. (Yes, Peace, not Morgans).
Buying and Selling coins for 54 years, 700+ shows in last 20 years, and boy am I tired.
Purchased and Trademarked the Mohawk Valley Hoard
Originated the Rochester (NY) Area Coin Expo
Whoa whoa whoa.
Nobody said anything about this thread being hijacked into a 1921 Peace dollar appreciation thread.
--Severian the Lame
MS 64s and ESPECIALLY 65s are over priced, over sold and over plentiful.
Promoted markets ..............ie ...Ladies and Gentleman step right this way! Go away kid yah bother me.
FWIW: I think circulated 1921 peace dollars are easy to come by. I know a local dealer with a dozen.
Problem is, they're all beat to absolute hell. They must have been some of the most pocket-piece'd coins of the 20th century, and then the depression hit and all bets were off.
I also think it's hard for casual collectors to distinguish cleaned examples.
We've discussed surviving pops of early generation 1921 peace dollars in other threads. In my experience, there are very few. Is that a function of small numbers originally submitted or large numbers being cracked? The question takes on added significance when you examine the reported populations of uncirculated 1921 peace dollars vs. those that have received CAC stickers:
PCGS: 15,316
NGC: 12,575
Total: 27,891
CAC Green: 1185
CAC Gold: 3
Check my math, but that means just 4% of slabbed uncirculated 1921 peace dollars have received CAC stickers.
--Severian the Lame
100 year anniversary of the Peace dollar design. My guess is the market for them will cool as we head into 2022.
I would say yes.
Typically, I can follow your logic and posts and determine where you are going with something, but in this case I am not certain what point you are attempting to make. It's likely just me being dense, but is there a point for bringing in the percentage CAC stickered coins vs. PCGS/NGC pops?
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
We don’t know, and will never know, what PERCENTAGE of certified 1921 Peace Dollars (or any other coin) received CAC stickers, because we don’t know, and will never know, how many were submitted.
One exception: coins with a population under 10 or so.
Buying and Selling coins for 54 years, 700+ shows in last 20 years, and boy am I tired.
Purchased and Trademarked the Mohawk Valley Hoard
Originated the Rochester (NY) Area Coin Expo
Not to highjack but to point out demand can alter pricing.
Also to point out that there are potential future1921 Peace buyers.
How about a double coin holder host?
This is true. There are a lot of coins just not worth submitting to CAC because there is no economic advantage.
Market is not saturated with well struck gems, I can tell you that. I think in MS65 and above with CAC there will be strong demand. The AU to MS 62 I think stand the most to lose percentage wise.
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Which means I’ll find my examples in a year or so AU-MS no problem
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No.
--Severian the Lame
My love affair is mainly with the trade dollar and the interest in both Peace and Morgan dollars were extremely brief.
At the old LCS, have seen lot of aging collectors come in after finally calling it a day since the pandemic started and cashing it all in, so that would probably be one of reasons for the sudden increase in supply.
Have six 1921 peace dollars in the raw including one that has a hole in it along with a few of the morgans from 1921 which were probably whizzed before being put in their custom PCS slabs. Gave it to my kid who sold the morgans for 100% profit to buy his own set of wheels lending credence to the fact that someone is surely going to be left holding the bag when the buying frenzy dies down.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/quarters/PCGS-2020-quarter-quest/album/247091
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Latin American Collection
I think they over promoted / over priced and due for a fall aka 89.
Let's get specific. While there are a lot of Peace dollars out there, there are exactly 2900 1921 Peace dollars graded MS65 by PCGS and NGC. Only 253 or 8.7% have received a green CAC. None in gold. The question is, "How strong is the demand for eye appealing Peace dollars that have a CAC?"
Why is that the question, rather than “How strong is the demand for all of the other ones of that grade that aren’t stickered, as well as all of the others of different grades.”
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
The original poster said, "The smart collectors are putting their money into the well struck examples." Most likely a CAC coin reviewed by an expert would meet their needs and MS65s are incrementally priced just before the triple dollars for a MS66
Sorry, I don’t understand. MS65’s aren’t necessarily well struck, while lower grade examples can be well struck.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I'm also not sure why a well struck 63 is necessarily better than a less well struck 65. Strike is only part of the equation, and a smaller part in lower grades.
I can't know what the future of anything much less predicting the future value of a specific subset of this coin. If 21s pull back in price, I'm not sure why that pull back wouldn't be across the board.
Good point. So, if you find a well struck MS65 with a CAC, you have something special! : ) You are also making a great point that if an exceptional lower grade coin fits one's budget better, go for it! But I wouldn't trust myself to buy a coin without a CAC.
CAC has no impact on the 100th anniversary price jump...
I recently sold this never been to CAC MS64 OGH for nearly current MS65+ monies with two other potential buyers almost crying when they missed it.
...among others, you could add 1909-S VDB cents. However, while also popular, 1921 Peace Dollars are far more common. And their current increased availability at much higher price levels, represents a different situation from the other coins.
Mr Feld made me look: 1909-S VDB ~480 k mintage, 1921 Peace ~ 1M mintage. Learned something this morning!
My guess it's a FOMO phenomenon. I know quite a lot of young (teens/early twenties) people and not one of them collects coins. When that starts to change, I'll start to think this might be a real sea change instead of just a short-lived speculative bubble. As several have pointed out, all collectables seem to be on the rise these days--even fairly recent Pokemon cards! The 1921, though, is a nice coin for this to happen to!