"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
can someone explain to me the 3.49 per ounce over spot? is it any harder to make a 100 oz bar than a 10 oz bar? that number should decline as the size goes up. I can see a per ounce premium for rounds with designs and special planchets but a bar premium should be per bar not per ounce.
Thats theft. Its not like you are digging a 100 foot hole instead of a 10 foot hole.
Well, you can buy gutter junk are you can buy quality. Appears premiums for quality have justified buying quality over the years and are providing much better returns. (shout out to Coho for showing us.) I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
Well, you can buy gutter junk are you can buy quality. Appears premiums for quality have justified buying quality over the years and are providing much better returns. (shout out to Coho for showing us.) I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
i think ASE premiums are way out of line on the high end but 100 oz bar premiums are too.
broncos rules of silver
summation 1 oz silver must be round, 5 thru 10 must be bars , nothing over 10 in any form ever, no point in 100 oz bars that have the same per ounce premium as 10 oz bars. 1000 oz bars are and always have been stupid. kilos are a non starter this aint china or europe
@derryb said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
Well, actually no they (i) wouldn't. And we've done the math a hundred times already. The percentage returns have been the same.
90% junk has actually done better than both 100oz bars and ASE.
@derryb said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
Well, actually no they (i) wouldn't. And we've done the math a hundred times already. The percentage returns have been the same.
90% junk has actually done better than both 100oz bars and ASE.
Good rules Bronco.
so you're saying premiums on junk and bars have performed better than premiums on ASEs? LMFAS
Just makin' $hit up does not make the $hit true. But, I guess if you believe it then that's all that matters.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
Well, actually no they (i) wouldn't. And we've done the math a hundred times already. The percentage returns have been the same.
90% junk has actually done better than both 100oz bars and ASE.
Good rules Bronco.
and circ morgans bought carefully the runaway winner. Old , limited supply, well known , and grade doesn't matter
contrast it with ASE's which are not possible to buy cheap , have to be perfect , and are not rare or old.
The circ pre 21 morgan thing doesn't scale up well unfortunately. Thats life though sometimes you have money but theres nowhere to put it , other times you can get as much as you want but you dont like the price or don't have the money ready.
Real world problems dont always have tidy answers .
To use a sports analogy , thats why they play the games Computers can figure the odds of who will win the superbowl in July but by the time gameday rolls around everything is different.
@Wingsrule said:
So based on the dude’s screenshot, you should arb the silver in Australia and sell in Germany.
The expenses and any import tax would negate any gain.
That reminds me of a co-worker who considered himself a financial genius. He can up with a brilliant idea of buying stocks on the west coast, three hours ahead of the east coast, after he saw which stocks were going up that day, three hours ahead of the market. He was not a genius and retired on disability with mental issues.
@derryb said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
Well, actually no they (i) wouldn't. And we've done the math a hundred times already. The percentage returns have been the same.
90% junk has actually done better than both 100oz bars and ASE.
Good rules Bronco.
so you're saying premiums on junk and bars have performed better than premiums on ASEs? LMFAS
Just makin' $hit up does not make the $hit true. But, I guess if you believe it then that's all that matters.
premiums on ASE's are unreliable and most people didn't anticipate them going so high. To me that means people won't see it coming when and if they revert to where they were. Also no one knows what spot will be at that time.
If you recall when silver ran up to 45 premiums on ASE's evaporated as a percentage as spot increased.
Well if spot goes to 45 now what do we think will happen to ASE premiums ? Will they keep this dollar premium or this percentage premium or will premiums go away?
I would hate to be that bagholder that paid $60 for random date ASE's after the plunge . You will drown in that premium for decades that guy will be the 1983 guy with the 1000 oz silver bar doorstops
If I owned a store I'd be buying from the public and marking them up to sell back to the public but as a little guy I'm not buying any at all here.
A rise in physical premiums is a result of the reduction in spot prices as well as an increase in physical demand. As spot drops and physical price holds or drops only marginally the result is an increase in premium percentage. An unusually high premium for ASEs indicates a flight to what is perceived as quality. If spot goes to 45 we will likely see premiums reduced; for now buyers are willing to pay only so many dollars over spot. As we have witnessed, higher premiums indicate buyers are currently willing to pay more dollars over spot than they have in the past. On the other hand, $45 silver indicates a high demand for futures contracts/delivery and may well cause a run on silver resulting in even higher physical premiums.
What does this tell us? It tells me that the impact that spot prices have on the price of physical silver is slowly being reduced. If silver premiums continue to rise there may well be a complete divorce between futures spot prices and physical prices. If and when this occurs sky is the limit for physical price. The only thing holding it back is that its base price (before premium) is determined by bullion bankers buying and selling unlimited paper promises. The supply of the real stuff is not unlimited and therefore price equilibrium should be determined by supply and demand of the real stuff and not by unlimited paper contracts.
Speculation in any futures market distorts price equilibrium in the physical market. The precious metal futures markets, because of bullion bank induced volatility, is one of the most distorted markets trading on futures exchanges as demonstrated by current premiums. Speculation in commodities should be limited to only ETFs and ETNs.
The original purpose of futures trading was to provide price stability to buyers and sellers of commodities. Speculators should be removed from the exchanges with all futures trading conducted only by actual suppliers and consumers of the given commodity.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
@derryb said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
Well, actually no they (i) wouldn't. And we've done the math a hundred times already. The percentage returns have been the same.
90% junk has actually done better than both 100oz bars and ASE.
Good rules Bronco.
so you're saying premiums on junk and bars have performed better than premiums on ASEs? LMFAS
Just makin' $hit up does not make the $hit true. But, I guess if you believe it then that's all that matters.
Yes...apparently the truth is funny to you. Many dealers and collectors on this forum can attest to buying 90% at prices back of spot or right at spot. Today they are paying spot +$5. So yes, for the mathematically challenged, going from zero premium to $5 is a much greater percentage return than going from 5 to 12.
Oh.....i dont need to cuss to distract from the facts.
@derryb said: Silver premiums over spot as a percentage:
A rise in physical premiums is a result of the reduction in spot prices as well as an increase in physical demand. As spot drops and physical price holds or drops only marginally the result is an increase in premium percentage. An unusually high premium for ASEs indicates a flight to what is perceived as quality. If spot goes to 45 we will likely see premiums reduced;;
So if spot goes to 45, then ASEs would no longer be perceived at quality, or lesser so?
...the impact that spot prices have on price of physical silver is slowly being reduced. If silver premiums continue to rise there may well be a complete divorce between futures spot prices and physical prices.
So in this "divorce" what will price discovery look like. As shown earlier, the price for common physical is between 23 and 36. Thats not exactly precise discovery. So without a "basis price", what would the market for physical silver look like?
@cohodk said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
@derryb said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
Well, actually no they (i) wouldn't. And we've done the math a hundred times already. The percentage returns have been the same.
90% junk has actually done better than both 100oz bars and ASE.
so you're saying premiums on junk and bars have performed better than premiums on ASEs? LMFAS
Just makin' $hit up does not make the $hit true. But, I guess if you believe it then that's all that matters.
Yes...apparently the truth is funny to you. Many dealers and collectors on this forum can attest to buying 90% at prices back of spot or right at spot. Today they are paying spot +$5. So yes, for the mathematically challenged, going from zero premium to $5 is a much greater percentage return than going from 5 to 12.
Depends completely on the silver weight one is paying a $5 premium on. Percentage calculations require a quantity.
Paying a $5 premium on $10 face is a whole lot different than paying a $5 premium on $100 face. I doubt anyone is paying a $5 premium on a 64 Kennedy.
Oh.....i dont need to cuss to distract from the facts.
Choice of words best describes what you be talkin'.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
We know the last time silver was 45 ases were 2 or 3 bucks over. We know morgans were about the same 90% junk was spot and all lower grade stuff was back of spot.
Then it cratered . people held ases and morgans kinda held 90% and furiously dumped lower end stuff .
Ases went below 20 held morgans held about 20 90% got as low as 10x i think .
Most of us learned to avoid paying up for lower grade stuff.
This time if it goes higher i dont want anything but 90% and morgans in bulk . if i can get good deals on other stuff i will but it will be case by case.
Ill buy warnickles and 40% back of melt still but i wont stretch.
Actually 40% is doing really well now im in on that.
@cohodk said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
@derryb said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
Well, actually no they (i) wouldn't. And we've done the math a hundred times already. The percentage returns have been the same.
90% junk has actually done better than both 100oz bars and ASE.
so you're saying premiums on junk and bars have performed better than premiums on ASEs? LMFAS
Just makin' $hit up does not make the $hit true. But, I guess if you believe it then that's all that matters.
Yes...apparently the truth is funny to you. Many dealers and collectors on this forum can attest to buying 90% at prices back of spot or right at spot. Today they are paying spot +$5. So yes, for the mathematically challenged, going from zero premium to $5 is a much greater percentage return than going from 5 to 12.
Depends completely on the silver weight one is paying a $5 premium on. Percentage calculations require a quantity.
No. Dollar return requires a quantity, percentage return does not.
I know math is hard, but you can do it. I have faith in you.
the thing to remember is next cycle new leaders might be revealed and others fall by the wayside.
Morgans have the longest history , then 90%.
ASE's haven't participated in enough long cycles for me to know which way they will settle but my thinking is the US mint will be the enemy of that market.
The US mint is more likely to kill the golden goose than otherwise. They have a track record of killing geese. Modern commems , proof ASE's , state quarters etc etc. Just like the post office killed stamp collecting. Too many things kills the collector base which leaves you with bullion.
Minting a billion ASE's won't help up premiums it will tend to reduce them.
I forgot to mention up thread but last time we were at $45 generic 1 oz rounds were selling at spot when ASE's were a few bucks over. Which makes sense because spot compressed the premium. I assume that will happen again but the current high ASE premium muddies the water and makes it hard to plan . If you paid $10 over today and spot drops do you exit or ride it out? If I don't pay a premium I can be more flexible. If spot drops and premiums go away thats a double whammy ouch.
@cohodk said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
@derryb said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
Well, actually no they (i) wouldn't. And we've done the math a hundred times already. The percentage returns have been the same.
90% junk has actually done better than both 100oz bars and ASE.
so you're saying premiums on junk and bars have performed better than premiums on ASEs? LMFAS
Just makin' $hit up does not make the $hit true. But, I guess if you believe it then that's all that matters.
Yes...apparently the truth is funny to you. Many dealers and collectors on this forum can attest to buying 90% at prices back of spot or right at spot. Today they are paying spot +$5. So yes, for the mathematically challenged, going from zero premium to $5 is a much greater percentage return than going from 5 to 12.
Depends completely on the silver weight one is paying a $5 premium on. Percentage calculations require a quantity.
No. Dollar return requires a quantity, percentage return does not.
I know math is hard, but you can do it. I have faith in you.
.
An example, $100 invested in silver (using $25 spot):
90% "junk" bought at $0 premium and $25 spot = 4 troy oz net purchased.
The same silver amount, sold at $25 spot and $5 premium = ($30 * 4) = $120.
This results in a 20% gain in Dollars.
Silver Eagles bought at $5 premium and $25 per troy oz = $30 per coin (3-1/3 coins per $100).
The same coins, sold at $25 spot and $12 premium = ($37 * 3.333) = $123.33
This results in a 23.3% gain in Dollars.
.
Another example, $100 invested in silver (using $20 spot):
90% "junk" bought at $0 premium and $20 spot = 5 troy oz net purchased.
The same silver amount, sold at $20 spot and $5 premium = ($25 * 5) = $125.
This results in a 25% gain in Dollars.
Silver Eagles bought at $5 premium and $20 per troy oz = $25 per coin (4 coins per $100).
The same coins, sold at $20 spot and $12 premium = ($32 * 4) = $128.00
This results in a 28% gain in Dollars.
.
Either way, the actual "Dollar return" is about 3% higher for Silver Eagles than it is for "90% junk".
So, cohodk, your supposed "math" is wrong.
Back to grade-school for you (as a student, not a teacher).
.
PS
(in other words):
.
Silver bought at spot and sold for a $5 premium over the same spot.
vs.
Silver bought at $5 premium over spot and sold at $12 premium over the same spot.
Which is better ?
It depends on the spot price.
A percentage is meaningless without the context and the quantity that the percentage is based upon.
At some spot price, both investments are equal. What is that spot price ?:
Solving this equation for the value of spot yields: $12.50
So if spot is less than $12.50, then buying at that spot and selling for spot + $5 is better than buying at that spot + $5 and selling at that spot + $12.
Otherwise, if silver spot is greater than $12.50, then buying silver eagles at $5 over and selling for $12 over has a better percentage return in dollars than buying "junk" at $0 over and selling at $5 over.
.
A third example, $100 invested in silver (using $12.50 spot):
90% "junk" bought at $0 premium and $12.50 spot = 8 troy oz net purchased.
The same silver amount, sold at $12.50 spot and $5 premium = (17.50 * 8) = $140.
This results in a 40% gain in Dollars.
Silver Eagles bought at $5 premium and $12.50 per troy oz = $17.50 per coin (5.7143 coins per $100).
The same coins, sold at $12.50 spot and $12 premium = ($24.50 * 5.7143) = $140.00
This results in a 40% gain in Dollars.
the issue with that is inequality of trading partners. THe big guy sellers might be able to enforce a $12 premium on an ASE but joe blow doesn't get that advantage.
methinks if i had say 10 ase's to sell to a coin shop they would all be milk spotted scratched or otherwise impaired
@cohodk said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
@derryb said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
Well, actually no they (i) wouldn't. And we've done the math a hundred times already. The percentage returns have been the same.
90% junk has actually done better than both 100oz bars and ASE.
so you're saying premiums on junk and bars have performed better than premiums on ASEs? LMFAS
Just makin' $hit up does not make the $hit true. But, I guess if you believe it then that's all that matters.
Yes...apparently the truth is funny to you. Many dealers and collectors on this forum can attest to buying 90% at prices back of spot or right at spot. Today they are paying spot +$5. So yes, for the mathematically challenged, going from zero premium to $5 is a much greater percentage return than going from 5 to 12.
Depends completely on the silver weight one is paying a $5 premium on. Percentage calculations require a quantity.
No. Dollar return requires a quantity, percentage return does not.
I know math is hard, but you can do it. I have faith in you.
.
An example, $100 invested in silver (using $25 spot):
90% "junk" bought at $0 premium and $25 spot = 4 troy oz net purchased.
The same silver amount, sold at $25 spot and $5 premium = ($30 * 4) = $120.
This results in a 20% gain in Dollars.
Silver Eagles bought at $5 premium and $25 per troy oz = $30 per coin (3-1/3 coins per $100).
The same coins, sold at $25 spot and $12 premium = ($37 * 3.333) = $123.33
This results in a 23.3% gain in Dollars.
.
Another example, $100 invested in silver (using $20 spot):
90% "junk" bought at $0 premium and $20 spot = 5 troy oz net purchased.
The same silver amount, sold at $20 spot and $5 premium = ($25 * 5) = $125.
This results in a 25% gain in Dollars.
Silver Eagles bought at $5 premium and $20 per troy oz = $25 per coin (4 coins per $100).
The same coins, sold at $20 spot and $12 premium = ($32 * 4) = $128.00
This results in a 28% gain in Dollars.
.
Either way, the actual "Dollar return" is about 3% higher for Silver Eagles than it is for "90% junk".
So, cohodk, your supposed "math" is wrong.
Back to grade-school for you (as a student, not a teacher).
.
PS
(in other words):
.
Silver bought at spot and sold for a $5 premium over the same spot.
vs.
Silver bought at $5 premium over spot and sold at $12 premium over the same spot.
Which is better ?
It depends on the spot price.
A percentage is meaningless without the context and the quantity that the percentage is based upon.
At some spot price, both investments are equal. What is that spot price ?:
Solving this equation for the value of spot yields: $12.50
So if spot is less than $12.50, then buying at that spot and selling for spot + $5 is better than buying at that spot + $5 and selling at that spot + $12.
Otherwise, if silver spot is greater than $12.50, then buying silver eagles at $5 over and selling for $12 over has a better percentage return in dollars than buying "junk" at $0 over and selling at $5 over.
.
A third example, $100 invested in silver (using $12.50 spot):
90% "junk" bought at $0 premium and $12.50 spot = 8 troy oz net purchased.
The same silver amount, sold at $12.50 spot and $5 premium = (17.50 * 8) = $140.
This results in a 40% gain in Dollars.
Silver Eagles bought at $5 premium and $12.50 per troy oz = $17.50 per coin (5.7143 coins per $100).
The same coins, sold at $12.50 spot and $12 premium = ($24.50 * 5.7143) = $140.00
This results in a 40% gain in Dollars.
The problem with the ASE premium is its unprecedented and therefor how do I have faith that it will hold up in either direction. Common sense says premiums as a percentage of spot compress in a rising market on the way up if the rise is relatively quick , in a "tortoise" market they may not .
On the way down who knows. I tend to shed low premium stuff in a drop if I want to sell and hold the high premium to sell last, but would I do that with spot+12$ ASE's ? Do the buyers want to pay +12$ into a freefall? they most likely wait it out. I say tend to because do buyers really want my shitty warnickles the day after a plunge? no they do not. It only works in a stairsteppy downtrend with buyers trained to buy the dip. If I get steppy prices i can shed the crap and be left with the good stuff but in a fast straight drop the only sale you can make is the best stuff and that premium won't be there ....................oh well it might be , but the buyer will negotiate it away and you won't be able to stop that.
The problem is many people don't draw a distinction between dollar and percentage premiums on the way up but if the spot price craters suddenly percentage becomes much more important if you are holding . I don't feel safe holding lumps of silver whose value is half spot and half premium. At $12 spot I can try to sell ASE's for $24 each and no one is ever going to buy them . It will take a decade of inflation to get your $12 back
its not paper silver its real . Its a face to face market with human beings its not mouseclicks and you are out. its actual work to exit, aka time spent and deals that dont go thru and the other guy has all the advantages there is literally no reason for the buyer to buy it from you they can just wait it out.
If we cast our memory back to the last plunge" The night of the long knives" as I call it. It was a steep drop in Asia on a Sunday night when the US markets weren't open. I can say that after the initial plunge there were folks buying physical on the dip at every little bounce. I was able to unload a lot of crap at above the current spot. War nickles , canada junk , UK 50% junk etc. I was also able to scoop up a lot of morgans for less than $20 each when spot was above $30 even around 35 I think.
People anxious to get out were not being selective and buyers weren't either. The buyers were mostly wrong they could have waited years on the sideline
I saw the rules bronco posted, and agree to most. I am on the fence with regards to kilo bars. With silver trending lower, i am beginning to consider adding again ( sold almost everything when silver was around $28). Still, premium over spot is still too high. Decided to stop by the LCS today, and what did the have…kilo bars…spot +$3.5…still way too high of a premium, but figured I would let people know where things stand in my area.
The problem with the ASE premium is its unprecedented and therefor how do I have faith that it will hold up in either direction.
The longer the premiums stay up, it becomes "normal", and that could very well be the indication that the paper market isn't long for this world. I suspect that when the paper market does fail and Comex can't deliver, call it "force majeure" or whatever, the premiums will do more than just go up.
When that happens (not, if but when) the price for physical will be seeking a new level and premiums will just melt into the new price in the physical market.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@cohodk said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
@derryb said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
Well, actually no they (i) wouldn't. And we've done the math a hundred times already. The percentage returns have been the same.
90% junk has actually done better than both 100oz bars and ASE.
so you're saying premiums on junk and bars have performed better than premiums on ASEs? LMFAS
Just makin' $hit up does not make the $hit true. But, I guess if you believe it then that's all that matters.
Yes...apparently the truth is funny to you. Many dealers and collectors on this forum can attest to buying 90% at prices back of spot or right at spot. Today they are paying spot +$5. So yes, for the mathematically challenged, going from zero premium to $5 is a much greater percentage return than going from 5 to 12.
Depends completely on the silver weight one is paying a $5 premium on. Percentage calculations require a quantity.
No. Dollar return requires a quantity, percentage return does not.
I know math is hard, but you can do it. I have faith in you.
.
An example, $100 invested in silver (using $25 spot):
90% "junk" bought at $0 premium and $25 spot = 4 troy oz net purchased.
The same silver amount, sold at $25 spot and $5 premium = ($30 * 4) = $120.
This results in a 20% gain in Dollars.
Silver Eagles bought at $5 premium and $25 per troy oz = $30 per coin (3-1/3 coins per $100).
The same coins, sold at $25 spot and $12 premium = ($37 * 3.333) = $123.33
This results in a 23.3% gain in Dollars.
.
Another example, $100 invested in silver (using $20 spot):
90% "junk" bought at $0 premium and $20 spot = 5 troy oz net purchased.
The same silver amount, sold at $20 spot and $5 premium = ($25 * 5) = $125.
This results in a 25% gain in Dollars.
Silver Eagles bought at $5 premium and $20 per troy oz = $25 per coin (4 coins per $100).
The same coins, sold at $20 spot and $12 premium = ($32 * 4) = $128.00
This results in a 28% gain in Dollars.
.
Either way, the actual "Dollar return" is about 3% higher for Silver Eagles than it is for "90% junk".
One forum member contends folk should have bought ASEs for far superior gain. And you just proved him wrong.
Now lets start with a real life example of spot at $16 and give ASEs a $4 premium since these were actual buy prices for several years. Do the math. Holy schmoly....same return!!! Its like magic. And if we use Upstates bid sheet---another real life example--we see 90% outperformed handily.
Thanks for the help with explaining to the other forum member. Much appreciated. You are now assistant teacher.
@cohodk said:
One forum member contends folk should have bought ASEs for far superior gain. And you just proved him wrong.
Now lets start with a real life example of spot at $16 and give ASEs a $4 premium since these were actual buy prices for several years. Do the math. Holy schmoly....same return!!! Its like magic. And if we use Upstates bid sheet---another real life example--we see 90% outperformed handily.
Thanks for the help with explaining to the other forum member. Much appreciated. You are now assistant teacher.
@cohodk said:
So yes, for the mathematically challenged, going from zero premium to $5 is a much greater percentage return than going from 5 to 12.
.
Are you sticking to your claim that a premium gain of 0 to 5 is better than a gain of 5 to 12 ?
Your new partial scenario of $16 ASE plus $4 premium is the same return as what ?
.
@derryb said:
Depends completely on the silver weight one is paying a $5 premium on. Percentage calculations require a quantity.
@cohodk said:
No. Dollar return requires a quantity, percentage return does not.
I know math is hard, but you can do it. I have faith in you.
You wrote "percentage return".
Here is a question (should be easy, but maybe hard for you):
What is the percentage return if something goes from a premium of $0 to a premium of $5 ?
@cohodk said:
One forum member contends folk should have bought ASEs for far superior gain. And you just proved him wrong.
Now lets start with a real life example of spot at $16 and give ASEs a $4 premium since these were actual buy prices for several years. Do the math. Holy schmoly....same return!!! Its like magic. And if we use Upstates bid sheet---another real life example--we see 90% outperformed handily.
Thanks for the help with explaining to the other forum member. Much appreciated. You are now assistant teacher.
@cohodk said:
So yes, for the mathematically challenged, going from zero premium to $5 is a much greater percentage return than going from 5 to 12.
.
Are you sticking to your claim that a premium gain of 0 to 5 is better than a gain of 5 to 12 ?
Your new partial scenario of $16 ASE plus $4 premium is the same return as what ?
.
@derryb said:
Depends completely on the silver weight one is paying a $5 premium on. Percentage calculations require a quantity.
@cohodk said:
No. Dollar return requires a quantity, percentage return does not.
I know math is hard, but you can do it. I have faith in you.
You wrote "percentage return".
Here is a question (should be easy, but maybe hard for you):
What is the percentage return if something goes from a premium of $0 to a premium of $5 ?
the point is we don't know what the premium will be in dollars. If silver drops the seller will try to keep the current dollar premium because thats just good business sense. but if buyers dont want to pay they will have to dial it back or just stop selling.
stackers can stop selling but businesses just go out of business if they dont sell
@cohodk said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
@derryb said:
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
Well, actually no they (i) wouldn't. And we've done the math a hundred times already. The percentage returns have been the same.
90% junk has actually done better than both 100oz bars and ASE.
so you're saying premiums on junk and bars have performed better than premiums on ASEs? LMFAS
Just makin' $hit up does not make the $hit true. But, I guess if you believe it then that's all that matters.
Yes...apparently the truth is funny to you. Many dealers and collectors on this forum can attest to buying 90% at prices back of spot or right at spot. Today they are paying spot +$5. So yes, for the mathematically challenged, going from zero premium to $5 is a much greater percentage return than going from 5 to 12.
Depends completely on the silver weight one is paying a $5 premium on. Percentage calculations require a quantity.
No. Dollar return requires a quantity, percentage return does not.
I know math is hard, but you can do it. I have faith in you.
.
An example, $100 invested in silver (using $25 spot):
90% "junk" bought at $0 premium and $25 spot = 4 troy oz net purchased.
The same silver amount, sold at $25 spot and $5 premium = ($30 * 4) = $120.
This results in a 20% gain in Dollars.
Silver Eagles bought at $5 premium and $25 per troy oz = $30 per coin (3-1/3 coins per $100).
The same coins, sold at $25 spot and $12 premium = ($37 * 3.333) = $123.33
This results in a 23.3% gain in Dollars.
.
Another example, $100 invested in silver (using $20 spot):
90% "junk" bought at $0 premium and $20 spot = 5 troy oz net purchased.
The same silver amount, sold at $20 spot and $5 premium = ($25 * 5) = $125.
This results in a 25% gain in Dollars.
Silver Eagles bought at $5 premium and $20 per troy oz = $25 per coin (4 coins per $100).
The same coins, sold at $20 spot and $12 premium = ($32 * 4) = $128.00
This results in a 28% gain in Dollars.
.
Either way, the actual "Dollar return" is about 3% higher for Silver Eagles than it is for "90% junk".
One forum member contends folk should have bought ASEs for far superior gain. And you just proved him wrong.
Now lets start with a real life example of spot at $16 and give ASEs a $4 premium since these were actual buy prices for several years. Do the math. Holy schmoly....same return!!! Its like magic. And if we use Upstates bid sheet---another real life example--we see 90% outperformed handily.
Thanks for the help with explaining to the other forum member. Much appreciated. You are now assistant teacher.
Factor in a bit of inflation and for most it's decades of negative returns. They don't call it life in the gutter for nothing. THKS!
Another advantage of 90% if you pick your spots you can get it below or near spot. You can also get better 90% at the same time as junky stuff and selectively sell at a premium .
Ive done well with bu franklins bought at generic 90% price and then sold at large markups . buying halfs in general has been worth money over and above dimes and quarters.
Its been nearly impossible to get ase's at a discount unless they are colorized and you acetone them . thats a low volume prospect
Ordered .900 silver constitutional silver, recently. Spot + $8.50. Last year it was spot plus $3.50.
Of course , don't forget that that price is then multiplied by .715.
Translates to approx. 22x FV. 22-24x Face value is where we are, basically. If I can buy it cheaper on a walk-in customer, the price is still 20x+.
@bronco2078 said:
Another advantage of 90% if you pick your spots you can get it below or near spot. You can also get better 90% at the same time as junky stuff and selectively sell at a premium .
Ive done well with bu franklins bought at generic 90% price and then sold at large markups . buying halfs in general has been worth money over and above dimes and quarters.
Its been nearly impossible to get ase's at a discount unless they are colorized and you acetone them . thats a low volume prospect
I miss the days of my LCS guy letting me cherrypick all the BU halves from the 90% bins for spot. I didn't realize how much the paper and phyz market has decoupled until I looked at adding to the stack, and decided to sell 100face@22 to to mark the occasion.
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@cohodk said:
One forum member contends folk should have bought ASEs for far superior gain. And you just proved him wrong.
Now lets start with a real life example of spot at $16 and give ASEs a $4 premium since these were actual buy prices for several years. Do the math. Holy schmoly....same return!!! Its like magic. And if we use Upstates bid sheet---another real life example--we see 90% outperformed handily.
Thanks for the help with explaining to the other forum member. Much appreciated. You are now assistant teacher.
@cohodk said:
So yes, for the mathematically challenged, going from zero premium to $5 is a much greater percentage return than going from 5 to 12.
.
Are you sticking to your claim that a premium gain of 0 to 5 is better than a gain of 5 to 12 ?
Your new partial scenario of $16 ASE plus $4 premium is the same return as what ?
.
@derryb said:
Depends completely on the silver weight one is paying a $5 premium on. Percentage calculations require a quantity.
@cohodk said:
No. Dollar return requires a quantity, percentage return does not.
I know math is hard, but you can do it. I have faith in you.
You wrote "percentage return".
Here is a question (should be easy, but maybe hard for you):
What is the percentage return if something goes from a premium of $0 to a premium of $5 ?
in my little antique store booth i haven't lowered any prices since silver was 24 or 25 and havent had a sale of bullion since.
I dont have to sell so ill just wait , i'm curious because I have a few regulars that stop by once a week on Friday or Saturday.
With gas at 4.50 a gallon i personally would make a purchase just to justify the trip but there are other vendors so maybe they will buy some trash instead. by trash i mean sports cards or pokemon cards , if so then they are idiots. If they buy an HO scale locomotive from the booth across from me then thats fine obviously.
Basically anyone that comparison shops for PM's but pays up for little cardboard rectangles of picachu shouldnt be allowed to reproduce anyway right?
So, that single APMEX silver eagle that has been used as a constant measuring stick throughout this thread is now selling for a 73% premium, plus shipping. Those that predicted high premiums were temporary continue to be wrong and those that predicted a continuing separation between spot and physical prices continue to be correct.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
id just like to say that it may be listed at a 73% premium but we dont know if people are buying.
Common tactic if you are having supply issues is to over price things to sell less of them but its better than putting out of stock on the listing for a variety of reasons. Ebay sellers do this all the time
@derryb said:
So, that single APMEX silver eagle that has been used as a constant measuring stick throughout this thread is now selling for a 73% premium, plus shipping. Those that predicted high premiums were temporary continue to be wrong and those that predicted a continuing separation between spot and physical prices continue to be correct.
Some continue to buy gutter metal at the highest premium outlet on planet earth even as prices continue to plumet. As they say "A fool and his $$$ are soon parted." Remember butter and beans you can eat. Gutter metal not so much. RGDS!
Putting things into perspective, the Apmex premiums on a nominal small qty (10 oz or so) of 90% is 37.3%, on generic 1 oz. rounds is 24.2% and on ASEs is 69.8%. I don't believe that I've ever seen premiums this high.
No matter which way you slice it, silver premiums look to be at or near all-time highs. It looks to me as if people ARE buying silver, or else sellers wouldn't be getting away with these premiums.
Say what you will about silver, I'd certainly rather have some silver than not.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Comments
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Double post
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
can someone explain to me the 3.49 per ounce over spot? is it any harder to make a 100 oz bar than a 10 oz bar? that number should decline as the size goes up. I can see a per ounce premium for rounds with designs and special planchets but a bar premium should be per bar not per ounce.
Thats theft. Its not like you are digging a 100 foot hole instead of a 10 foot hole.
Hmmm...price discovery...
according to the Upstate sheet physical silver is worth between 23.30 (1000oz bar) to 36.60 (ATB).
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Well, you can buy gutter junk are you can buy quality. Appears premiums for quality have justified buying quality over the years and are providing much better returns. (shout out to Coho for showing us.) I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
i think ASE premiums are way out of line on the high end but 100 oz bar premiums are too.
broncos rules of silver
summation 1 oz silver must be round, 5 thru 10 must be bars , nothing over 10 in any form ever, no point in 100 oz bars that have the same per ounce premium as 10 oz bars. 1000 oz bars are and always have been stupid. kilos are a non starter this aint china or europe
Well, actually no they (i) wouldn't. And we've done the math a hundred times already. The percentage returns have been the same.
90% junk has actually done better than both 100oz bars and ASE.
Good rules Bronco.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
so you're saying premiums on junk and bars have performed better than premiums on ASEs? LMFAS
Just makin' $hit up does not make the $hit true. But, I guess if you believe it then that's all that matters.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
and circ morgans bought carefully the runaway winner. Old , limited supply, well known , and grade doesn't matter
contrast it with ASE's which are not possible to buy cheap , have to be perfect , and are not rare or old.
The circ pre 21 morgan thing doesn't scale up well unfortunately. Thats life though sometimes you have money but theres nowhere to put it , other times you can get as much as you want but you dont like the price or don't have the money ready.
Real world problems dont always have tidy answers .
To use a sports analogy , thats why they play the games Computers can figure the odds of who will win the superbowl in July but by the time gameday rolls around everything is different.
That reminds me of a co-worker who considered himself a financial genius. He can up with a brilliant idea of buying stocks on the west coast, three hours ahead of the east coast, after he saw which stocks were going up that day, three hours ahead of the market. He was not a genius and retired on disability with mental issues.
premiums on ASE's are unreliable and most people didn't anticipate them going so high. To me that means people won't see it coming when and if they revert to where they were. Also no one knows what spot will be at that time.
If you recall when silver ran up to 45 premiums on ASE's evaporated as a percentage as spot increased.
Well if spot goes to 45 now what do we think will happen to ASE premiums ? Will they keep this dollar premium or this percentage premium or will premiums go away?
I would hate to be that bagholder that paid $60 for random date ASE's after the plunge . You will drown in that premium for decades that guy will be the 1983 guy with the 1000 oz silver bar doorstops
If I owned a store I'd be buying from the public and marking them up to sell back to the public but as a little guy I'm not buying any at all here.
Silver premiums over spot as a percentage:
A rise in physical premiums is a result of the reduction in spot prices as well as an increase in physical demand. As spot drops and physical price holds or drops only marginally the result is an increase in premium percentage. An unusually high premium for ASEs indicates a flight to what is perceived as quality. If spot goes to 45 we will likely see premiums reduced; for now buyers are willing to pay only so many dollars over spot. As we have witnessed, higher premiums indicate buyers are currently willing to pay more dollars over spot than they have in the past. On the other hand, $45 silver indicates a high demand for futures contracts/delivery and may well cause a run on silver resulting in even higher physical premiums.
What does this tell us? It tells me that the impact that spot prices have on the price of physical silver is slowly being reduced. If silver premiums continue to rise there may well be a complete divorce between futures spot prices and physical prices. If and when this occurs sky is the limit for physical price. The only thing holding it back is that its base price (before premium) is determined by bullion bankers buying and selling unlimited paper promises. The supply of the real stuff is not unlimited and therefore price equilibrium should be determined by supply and demand of the real stuff and not by unlimited paper contracts.
Speculation in any futures market distorts price equilibrium in the physical market. The precious metal futures markets, because of bullion bank induced volatility, is one of the most distorted markets trading on futures exchanges as demonstrated by current premiums. Speculation in commodities should be limited to only ETFs and ETNs.
The original purpose of futures trading was to provide price stability to buyers and sellers of commodities. Speculators should be removed from the exchanges with all futures trading conducted only by actual suppliers and consumers of the given commodity.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I'll bet ya those holding a 100 oz bar wish they had bought 100 oz. of ASE quality when the premiums were much closer to those of the junk- they would have made more money. LOL
Yes...apparently the truth is funny to you. Many dealers and collectors on this forum can attest to buying 90% at prices back of spot or right at spot. Today they are paying spot +$5. So yes, for the mathematically challenged, going from zero premium to $5 is a much greater percentage return than going from 5 to 12.
Oh.....i dont need to cuss to distract from the facts.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So if spot goes to 45, then ASEs would no longer be perceived at quality, or lesser so?
...the impact that spot prices have on price of physical silver is slowly being reduced. If silver premiums continue to rise there may well be a complete divorce between futures spot prices and physical prices.
So in this "divorce" what will price discovery look like. As shown earlier, the price for common physical is between 23 and 36. Thats not exactly precise discovery. So without a "basis price", what would the market for physical silver look like?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Depends completely on the silver weight one is paying a $5 premium on. Percentage calculations require a quantity.
Paying a $5 premium on $10 face is a whole lot different than paying a $5 premium on $100 face. I doubt anyone is paying a $5 premium on a 64 Kennedy.
Choice of words best describes what you be talkin'.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
We know the last time silver was 45 ases were 2 or 3 bucks over. We know morgans were about the same 90% junk was spot and all lower grade stuff was back of spot.
Then it cratered . people held ases and morgans kinda held 90% and furiously dumped lower end stuff .
Ases went below 20 held morgans held about 20 90% got as low as 10x i think .
Most of us learned to avoid paying up for lower grade stuff.
This time if it goes higher i dont want anything but 90% and morgans in bulk . if i can get good deals on other stuff i will but it will be case by case.
Ill buy warnickles and 40% back of melt still but i wont stretch.
Actually 40% is doing really well now im in on that.
No. Dollar return requires a quantity, percentage return does not.
I know math is hard, but you can do it. I have faith in you.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
the thing to remember is next cycle new leaders might be revealed and others fall by the wayside.
Morgans have the longest history , then 90%.
ASE's haven't participated in enough long cycles for me to know which way they will settle but my thinking is the US mint will be the enemy of that market.
The US mint is more likely to kill the golden goose than otherwise. They have a track record of killing geese. Modern commems , proof ASE's , state quarters etc etc. Just like the post office killed stamp collecting. Too many things kills the collector base which leaves you with bullion.
Minting a billion ASE's won't help up premiums it will tend to reduce them.
I forgot to mention up thread but last time we were at $45 generic 1 oz rounds were selling at spot when ASE's were a few bucks over. Which makes sense because spot compressed the premium. I assume that will happen again but the current high ASE premium muddies the water and makes it hard to plan . If you paid $10 over today and spot drops do you exit or ride it out? If I don't pay a premium I can be more flexible. If spot drops and premiums go away thats a double whammy ouch.
.
An example, $100 invested in silver (using $25 spot):
90% "junk" bought at $0 premium and $25 spot = 4 troy oz net purchased.
The same silver amount, sold at $25 spot and $5 premium = ($30 * 4) = $120.
This results in a 20% gain in Dollars.
Silver Eagles bought at $5 premium and $25 per troy oz = $30 per coin (3-1/3 coins per $100).
The same coins, sold at $25 spot and $12 premium = ($37 * 3.333) = $123.33
This results in a 23.3% gain in Dollars.
.
Another example, $100 invested in silver (using $20 spot):
90% "junk" bought at $0 premium and $20 spot = 5 troy oz net purchased.
The same silver amount, sold at $20 spot and $5 premium = ($25 * 5) = $125.
This results in a 25% gain in Dollars.
Silver Eagles bought at $5 premium and $20 per troy oz = $25 per coin (4 coins per $100).
The same coins, sold at $20 spot and $12 premium = ($32 * 4) = $128.00
This results in a 28% gain in Dollars.
.
Either way, the actual "Dollar return" is about 3% higher for Silver Eagles than it is for "90% junk".
So, cohodk, your supposed "math" is wrong.
Back to grade-school for you (as a student, not a teacher).
.
PS
(in other words):
.
Silver bought at spot and sold for a $5 premium over the same spot.
vs.
Silver bought at $5 premium over spot and sold at $12 premium over the same spot.
Which is better ?
It depends on the spot price.
At some spot price, both investments are equal. What is that spot price ?:
(spot + 5.0) / (spot + 0.0) = (spot + 12.0) / (spot + 5.0)
Solving this equation for the value of spot yields: $12.50
So if spot is less than $12.50, then buying at that spot and selling for spot + $5 is better than buying at that spot + $5 and selling at that spot + $12.
Otherwise, if silver spot is greater than $12.50, then buying silver eagles at $5 over and selling for $12 over has a better percentage return in dollars than buying "junk" at $0 over and selling at $5 over.
.
A third example, $100 invested in silver (using $12.50 spot):
90% "junk" bought at $0 premium and $12.50 spot = 8 troy oz net purchased.
The same silver amount, sold at $12.50 spot and $5 premium = (17.50 * 8) = $140.
This results in a 40% gain in Dollars.
Silver Eagles bought at $5 premium and $12.50 per troy oz = $17.50 per coin (5.7143 coins per $100).
The same coins, sold at $12.50 spot and $12 premium = ($24.50 * 5.7143) = $140.00
This results in a 40% gain in Dollars.
the issue with that is inequality of trading partners. THe big guy sellers might be able to enforce a $12 premium on an ASE but joe blow doesn't get that advantage.
methinks if i had say 10 ase's to sell to a coin shop they would all be milk spotted scratched or otherwise impaired
The problem with the ASE premium is its unprecedented and therefor how do I have faith that it will hold up in either direction. Common sense says premiums as a percentage of spot compress in a rising market on the way up if the rise is relatively quick , in a "tortoise" market they may not .
On the way down who knows. I tend to shed low premium stuff in a drop if I want to sell and hold the high premium to sell last, but would I do that with spot+12$ ASE's ? Do the buyers want to pay +12$ into a freefall? they most likely wait it out. I say tend to because do buyers really want my shitty warnickles the day after a plunge? no they do not. It only works in a stairsteppy downtrend with buyers trained to buy the dip. If I get steppy prices i can shed the crap and be left with the good stuff but in a fast straight drop the only sale you can make is the best stuff and that premium won't be there ....................oh well it might be , but the buyer will negotiate it away and you won't be able to stop that.
The problem is many people don't draw a distinction between dollar and percentage premiums on the way up but if the spot price craters suddenly percentage becomes much more important if you are holding . I don't feel safe holding lumps of silver whose value is half spot and half premium. At $12 spot I can try to sell ASE's for $24 each and no one is ever going to buy them . It will take a decade of inflation to get your $12 back
its not paper silver its real . Its a face to face market with human beings its not mouseclicks and you are out. its actual work to exit, aka time spent and deals that dont go thru and the other guy has all the advantages there is literally no reason for the buyer to buy it from you they can just wait it out.
If we cast our memory back to the last plunge" The night of the long knives" as I call it. It was a steep drop in Asia on a Sunday night when the US markets weren't open. I can say that after the initial plunge there were folks buying physical on the dip at every little bounce. I was able to unload a lot of crap at above the current spot. War nickles , canada junk , UK 50% junk etc. I was also able to scoop up a lot of morgans for less than $20 each when spot was above $30 even around 35 I think.
People anxious to get out were not being selective and buyers weren't either. The buyers were mostly wrong they could have waited years on the sideline
I saw the rules bronco posted, and agree to most. I am on the fence with regards to kilo bars. With silver trending lower, i am beginning to consider adding again ( sold almost everything when silver was around $28). Still, premium over spot is still too high. Decided to stop by the LCS today, and what did the have…kilo bars…spot +$3.5…still way too high of a premium, but figured I would let people know where things stand in my area.
The problem with the ASE premium is its unprecedented and therefor how do I have faith that it will hold up in either direction.
The longer the premiums stay up, it becomes "normal", and that could very well be the indication that the paper market isn't long for this world. I suspect that when the paper market does fail and Comex can't deliver, call it "force majeure" or whatever, the premiums will do more than just go up.
When that happens (not, if but when) the price for physical will be seeking a new level and premiums will just melt into the new price in the physical market.
I knew it would happen.
One forum member contends folk should have bought ASEs for far superior gain. And you just proved him wrong.
Now lets start with a real life example of spot at $16 and give ASEs a $4 premium since these were actual buy prices for several years. Do the math. Holy schmoly....same return!!! Its like magic. And if we use Upstates bid sheet---another real life example--we see 90% outperformed handily.
Thanks for the help with explaining to the other forum member. Much appreciated. You are now assistant teacher.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
Are you sticking to your claim that a premium gain of 0 to 5 is better than a gain of 5 to 12 ?
Your new partial scenario of $16 ASE plus $4 premium is the same return as what ?
.
You wrote "percentage return".
Here is a question (should be easy, but maybe hard for you):
What is the percentage return if something goes from a premium of $0 to a premium of $5 ?
the point is we don't know what the premium will be in dollars. If silver drops the seller will try to keep the current dollar premium because thats just good business sense. but if buyers dont want to pay they will have to dial it back or just stop selling.
stackers can stop selling but businesses just go out of business if they dont sell
And as we debate the premiums... silver continues to drop another 1.5% on the charts today....
Garnets and gold.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Factor in a bit of inflation and for most it's decades of negative returns. They don't call it life in the gutter for nothing. THKS!
Another advantage of 90% if you pick your spots you can get it below or near spot. You can also get better 90% at the same time as junky stuff and selectively sell at a premium .
Ive done well with bu franklins bought at generic 90% price and then sold at large markups . buying halfs in general has been worth money over and above dimes and quarters.
Its been nearly impossible to get ase's at a discount unless they are colorized and you acetone them . thats a low volume prospect
Ordered .900 silver constitutional silver, recently. Spot + $8.50. Last year it was spot plus $3.50.
Of course , don't forget that that price is then multiplied by .715.
Translates to approx. 22x FV. 22-24x Face value is where we are, basically. If I can buy it cheaper on a walk-in customer, the price is still 20x+.
I miss the days of my LCS guy letting me cherrypick all the BU halves from the 90% bins for spot. I didn't realize how much the paper and phyz market has decoupled until I looked at adding to the stack, and decided to sell 100face@22 to to mark the occasion.
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Apparently, the math problem is too hard ?
Yeah....im having difficulty deciphering the difference between 0 and 0.0000000000000000000001.
Thanks for your help.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Not really making any progress here. Let's try again.
How does 0 vs 10 to the minus 23 power relate to:
"What is the percentage return if something goes from a premium of $0 to a premium of $5 ?"
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
You really counted all those zeros? Haha
Of course you cant have a multiple of zero. Is that what you are trying to get at? Dang, i do live rent free in your brain.
Is the % return from one cent to $5 greater than $5 to $12? Derry wants to know, and i think you do too.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
in my little antique store booth i haven't lowered any prices since silver was 24 or 25 and havent had a sale of bullion since.
I dont have to sell so ill just wait , i'm curious because I have a few regulars that stop by once a week on Friday or Saturday.
With gas at 4.50 a gallon i personally would make a purchase just to justify the trip but there are other vendors so maybe they will buy some trash instead. by trash i mean sports cards or pokemon cards , if so then they are idiots. If they buy an HO scale locomotive from the booth across from me then thats fine obviously.
Basically anyone that comparison shops for PM's but pays up for little cardboard rectangles of picachu shouldnt be allowed to reproduce anyway right?
Counting is easy (for most of us).
You almost got there. Maybe if you think about it just a little more you can see that a percentage return does require a base quantity.
We already know which dollar return is better (my posting of May 1 in this thread)
So, that single APMEX silver eagle that has been used as a constant measuring stick throughout this thread is now selling for a 73% premium, plus shipping. Those that predicted high premiums were temporary continue to be wrong and those that predicted a continuing separation between spot and physical prices continue to be correct.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
id just like to say that it may be listed at a 73% premium but we dont know if people are buying.
Common tactic if you are having supply issues is to over price things to sell less of them but its better than putting out of stock on the listing for a variety of reasons. Ebay sellers do this all the time
Common tactic if you are having supply issues is to over price things to sell less of them
Sounds like a normal market price discovery phenomenon to me.
I knew it would happen.
lets see if anyone is stupid enough to pay double melt for a new coin made in the tens of millions what the heck right
Some continue to buy gutter metal at the highest premium outlet on planet earth even as prices continue to plumet. As they say "A fool and his $$$ are soon parted." Remember butter and beans you can eat. Gutter metal not so much. RGDS!
if it achieves a 100% premium it will be almost as good an investment as a scratch off lottery ticket
Putting things into perspective, the Apmex premiums on a nominal small qty (10 oz or so) of 90% is 37.3%, on generic 1 oz. rounds is 24.2% and on ASEs is 69.8%. I don't believe that I've ever seen premiums this high.
No matter which way you slice it, silver premiums look to be at or near all-time highs. It looks to me as if people ARE buying silver, or else sellers wouldn't be getting away with these premiums.
Say what you will about silver, I'd certainly rather have some silver than not.
I knew it would happen.