This is the most interesting thread in a long time............sounds like somebody's not going to get paid. So what would "they" (as cohodk might say) do to fix the problem?
Last time, the scapegoat and sacrificial lamb was Lehman; the rest of the club all got bailed out by Congress, and why would anyone expect differently this time? Only this time it's hedge funds and the banks.
Last time, it was $800 billion for the banks and major changes in the accounting rules for bad loan tranches that stay on the books at full value in perpetuity and it's all good. Congress is already spewing out $trillions faster than you can keep up in a democrat spending orgy in an attempt to buy votes in 2022.
Now what? I guess that the legal staffs are part of the 3AM program. If I were one of the bank CEOs, what would I be doing, besides yelling at my staff? Probably wiring funds to somewhere in South America or Switzerland.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
"As the world has seen unfold with Archegos, the amounts of other types of stock market leverage aren’t known. Even Wall Street banks that deal with their clients don’t know about their clients’ total leverage at other banks. Each bank knew how much leverage Archegos had with it, but not how much it had with other banks, or that it had any leverage with other banks."
"And when banks issued their margin calls – said to have been the second largest margin call in US history, after Lehman – and liquidated the underlying shares, they were selling those shares against each other. The first-out-the-door, including Goldman Sachs, came away relatively unscathed. Late movers, such as Credit Suisse got mauled."
Margin debt. Just another caustic form of financial fractional magic. Funny how debt is always at the center of all financial problems. This episode is another classic case of banking greed. This could very well be the black swan we knew would arrive.
As the leverage cancer spreads it is threatening not only the banking system but the stock market as well. The weekend warriors were possibly scouring contracts to find ways to be the first to issue margin calls and take possession of leveraged shares in order to be at the front of the line selling them. As the threat to the banks and especially stock markets rapidly grows, look for the FED, regulators and Congress to roll out the firetrucks. At least they now have the Magic Money Tree at their disposal.
Seems there have been numerous warnings here over the years of being near a chair "when the music stops." Banks appear to now be racing for an empty chair.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
^ Retail investors may own about twice the $GME float.
$GME vs. the Russell 2000:
The MOASS that doesn't exist is sure being talked about a lot in media.
Do you guys have Twitter or visit reddit? Instagram, other hobby forums? Because it sounds like the people are ready for armed revolt or violence. (I do NOT advocate any violence bc that's not how we solve most problems).
The 4/22 SEC implementation not only requires shorts to prove they can cover every day. It also allows the DTC to seize assets from overleveraged short sellers (like all of the banks that are short on $SLV) and auction them off.
I don't follow $GLD and $SLV because market fundamentals mean nothing in a rigged market. But it seems a lot of people really believe in them, and people are going wild over something about gold.
Edit/Update: Someone who plays manipulated stocks for a living:
"I spend hours looking at charts every day. I am very familiar with the trend line for every single one of the stocks in my watchlist; if you were to print out a 1-year chart of every one of these stocks, without labeling them, I’m pretty confident that I could tell you the company associated with every chart. So I assure you, the trends are not normal.
"Here’s my theory: The mass sell-off is probably going towards covering the shorts they actually covered (if any at all), interest, and the capital needed to purchase the blocks of shares they’d sell off to drive down the price. They were able to get away with it because people don’t tend to follow a bunch of garbage stocks, and since penny stocks are known to be extremely volatile, it doesn't raise any eyebrows when one tanks 30-50% in a short timespan, or even in a single day. And media outlets don’t really look into penny stocks too much.
"Also, this is entirely speculation, but I’ve also noticed that when penny stocks cool down they will trade sideways for weeks. Understandable if there’s low volume, but sometimes there are days when the volume will randomly be extremely high, but the price remains stagnant and there’s no news whatsoever to explain the high volume. It seems like an algorithm keeps the price bouncing back and forth, propping it up. But they aren’t bouncing back and forth, they’re just bleeding. HFs may have run out of money to prop up the stocks, so that’s why they’re sinking. Again, this is speculation, I don’t know what really goes on behind the curtain."
Edit:
There's also a silver raid today so expect inventory to get wiped out. If you're selling, it's a great day to mark everything up.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Az, you really need to reduce the size of your phone screen shots. Better yet use your desktop.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
That's not very specific, and it's a bit too Ayn Randish. I care about other people's finances and well-being, not just my own.
So, to make it less personal and more specific, let me ask the following:
How long before a crisis (a) sends broad equity indices down more than 50 % without a significant recovery over the next five years, or (b) leads to sustained high inflation. (eg, average double digits for a decade or average >20 % for five years)
I dunno.....all I know I have stayed long stocks over the long term and made alot of money for myself and clients.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I dunno.....all I know I have stayed long stocks over the long term and made alot of money for myself and clients.
When the Fed is doubling down on money printing and most of it goes into the stock market, that would be a logical outcome.
What happens when a liquidity crisis hits at the same time that the currency has been devalued and everybody knows it? There will be very few places to hide, if any.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@cohodk said:
Stock market at all time high. Banks with record profits. Unemployment at 50 year lows. Inflation almost nonexistant. Yeah, financial system cant handle it. Lol.
And...while rates rose from the lows in 2016 the stock market rallied 50%.
Yeah..i was wrong. Lol
LOL. LOL. LOL. LOL
This is one of your "classic" posts from a year and a half ago (October 2019).
How have things worked out since then ?
Not so well ?
"Inflation almost nonexistent" ?
A lumber 2x4 that costs $2.50 last year is about $8 now ?
That should set off a lot of alarms.
Seriously dude. I know its 4/20 and youre in Colorado, but man, youre stretching.
Banks still reporting record profits. Stock markets at record highs. Sheesh, even fake money has made people rich.
If youve listened you would know ive been tooting the inflation horn since 4/20--as in April 2020-- when global CB flooded their economies with Trillions. In fact, about a week ago i posted a chart of $PPI that is about break out of a 12 year consolidation. I asked some to give their interpretation, and as usual got only the typical generic, vague and aloof responses.
So many folk on this forum like to be spoon fed fish rather than learn to fish. Its become a great little microcosm of society. Eventually, y'all might see how "they" feed upon you. Nah, probably not.
PS--y'all is not meant to be all inclusionary, some of you do get it.
It's 4/20 in The Commonwealth too! Everything's in full blossom and it's about to faackin freeze and snow. Lumber's outrageous but all the mills around here are packed full of wood like I've never seen before. Maybe JPM left silver and started manipulating the lumber market? Lulz!
"400+ branches. We were all abruptly rushed out at 2:00pm today, panic closed for an unspecified emergency and not told if we’ll be back tomorrow. Employee speculation was that it has something to do with the Derek Chauvin verdict, however, the news he was found guilty had already been released. I offer no other info or speculation, but it’s definitely incredibly weird. We didn’t even close when there were active protests / riots last summer.
I still have no word on if we’ll be back to business as usual tomorrow. Things are peaceful in my area in regards to the Chauvin verdict and I don’t know of any planned marches. I will reiterate that at the height of the protests last summer, even when our branches were directly in the path of civil unrest, we remained open yet alert, for the most part. This is an operational anomaly for us."
This might be why
"I work in the banking world but not for a bank that was seized, but from what people say, the feds come in and basically take over on the spot at all locations simultaneously. Most employees are sent home and not allowed to take any possessions (although that is arranged in a timely way for them to get that). A few employees tend to be "offered jobs" with the governing agency to wrap shit up and help participate in an orderly transfer of everything to another bank so consumers are impacted as minimally as possible.
Again, and I cannot stress this enough, this is what I have heard through the work grapevine and was around 2008 when it was being discussed. So take this with one of those obscenely large salt rocks they have at fancy spas."
And another:
"Okay so... 7 large banks just had to raise a ton of money selling bonds... banks around the world have been burning the midnight oil on weekends for some unknown reason... dtcc has been changing rules more than I change my underwear... at least 4-5 (I’ve lost count at this point) hedge funds have blown up... covid is still a problem and the economy is as weak as ever, but the markets are at all time highs... US treasury bonds and many ETFs are shorted to oblivion... GME shorts still haven’t covered (lol)"
Do people on this board believe that people chatting on reddit have knowledge of a banking failure of massive global proportions that has not yet been picked up by the mainstream media, eg, the WSJ or the Economist?
Do people on this board believe that people chatting on reddit have knowledge of a banking failure of massive global proportions that has not yet been picked up by the mainstream media, eg, the WSJ or the Economist?
Some may call it the twilight zone. Whatever you want to make of it, I guess welcome to the tinfoil hat club. For some, listening to it long enough they start to believe it. Fact or fiction doesn't matter in the world of conspiracy.
Do people on this board believe that people chatting on reddit have knowledge of a banking failure of massive global proportions that has not yet been picked up by the mainstream media, eg, the WSJ or the Economist?
You will find that all of the original posts in all of the reddit links in the OP do nothing more than point out the unusual heavy activity at numerous global-wide financial office buildings over the weekend. Subsequent posts here by forum members are questioning why. I have commented that I believe it to be fallout from massive leveraging by the banks with hedge funds and the risk it suddenly poses to participating banks. And yes, this fallout, because of the massive leveraging, could have drastic implications for the banking sector and ultimately financial stability. One of the many things learned from the "housing" crisis is that the banks are interlinked to the point that when one fails they all become threatened. They are dominoes looking for a push.
The Archegos failure has put the spotlight on the hedge fund/banker relationship and the suddenly realized risk placed on these banks by ungodly amounts of leverage. Any one of these banks could easily become the first domino. And as we have learned, a major bank at risk easily puts everything financial at risk.
If one could only rely on mainstream financial news to give them the truth there would be no need for tin hat speculation.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Do people on this board believe that people chatting on reddit have knowledge of a banking failure of massive global proportions that has not yet been picked up by the mainstream media, eg, the WSJ or the Economist?
Yes, unfortunately many do. Scary isnt it? And when things dont materialize as promised they cry victim and whine about how unfair, corrupt and manipulated everything is. They say the system is rigged.
What I find most fascinating, is that people hate being told HOW to think, but they have no qualms about being told WHAT to think.
In this instance the OP starts with "unusual activity". What is unusual about it? Lights on at 3am, like theyve never been on before? Then the story morphs into speculation about short selling, hedge funds and the comex imploding. Folk see manipulation all about, but never in themselves.
@cohodk said:
This "information" brings up lots of questions.
. I also do not have a need for or seek out constant and continual confirmation bias.
I may not be the sharpest tool in the shed but this one line sums up the thread.
Op already said he blocked several users on the forum because they post dissenting opinion so they must be bots trolls or paid shills.
Difference of opinion is what makes conversation happen
If the people posting different opinions were truly the enemy why would you not want to see what they are posting. Isn’t it better to know what the enemy is doing before they attack?
Difference of opinion is what makes conversation happen
Until the opinion focuses on the speaker and not the conversation. This is what separates the trolls from the legitimate conversationalists (Higash comes to mind) who have a different opinion.
If the people posting different opinions were truly the enemy why would you not want to see what they are posting. Isn’t it better to know what the enemy is doing before they attack?
Funny how you use the word "attack." Appears you agree that the differing opinion is often an attack on the speaker, something that should not occur when opinions differ.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Do people on this board believe that people chatting on reddit have knowledge of a banking failure of massive global proportions that has not yet been picked up by the mainstream media, eg, the WSJ or the Economist?
In this instance the OP starts with "unusual activity". What is unusual about it? Lights on at 3am, like theyve never been on before? Then the story morphs into speculation about short selling, hedge funds and the comex imploding. Folk see manipulation all about, but never in themselves.
More than likely just the cleaning crew rather than some global banksters all up at 3AM conspiring to short all our silver away.
Do people on this board believe that people chatting on reddit have knowledge of a banking failure of massive global proportions that has not yet been picked up by the mainstream media, eg, the WSJ or the Economist?
In this instance the OP starts with "unusual activity". What is unusual about it? Lights on at 3am, like theyve never been on before? Then the story morphs into speculation about short selling, hedge funds and the comex imploding. Folk see manipulation all about, but never in themselves.
More than likely just the cleaning crew rather than some global banksters all up at 3AM conspiring to short all our silver away.
Makes sense. The Cleaners of the World union likely had all the cleaners concentrate on the bank offices all at once. Explains why the lights are all off in the non-banking offices. You funny.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@jmski52 said:
It should be relatively simple to observe whether or not the lights are on every night, and whether or not the lights are on this coming weekend.
Apparently they are only busy shorting silver from the office at 3AM on Sunday mornings.
Bank CEO and risk officer not even aware of Archegos exposure.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Some inside the bank who were familiar with Archegos’s exposure had thought it was a fraction of the roughly $20 billion figure, one of the people familiar with the matter said.
:.
:.
Credit Suisse is scheduled to report its first-quarter results on Thursday, when it is expected to publish more details about the overall damage Archegos had on its finances.
Have to wonder how many of you really realize how bad the world will be if there is 500$ silver... inflation would destroy the US.
The fed has created an impossible situation.. raise rates and bankrupt the fed/nation... don't raise rates and bankrupt the citizens...
I understand many of us were holding the bag from the 08/09 manipulation but please do not wish a global financial depression on us just to increase the value of your stack..
The stack should be one asset class in your portfolio..
@Relaxn said: “ The fed has created an impossible situation.. raise rates and bankrupt the fed/nation... don't raise rates and bankrupt the citizens...”
It will likely be a mess for a bit, but I think it will mostly work out. My wild guess: we will finally start seeing upward pressure on interest rates, especially at the long end of the yield curve. The Fed will continue buying bonds to keep rates in check. Both interest rates and inflation will increase, with inflation exceeding interest rates fairly substantially—eg 10 - 15 % inflation and 6-7 % yield on long treasuries, due to Fed purchases. For five years or so, it will be very hard to get the political will to get back to “normal” positive real rates. After prices have doubled or tripled, a “Volker 2” will emerge, crushing inflation. A global monetary conference will be held. A stabilized dollar will be one part of a new global system. Real US GDP will do surprisingly well during this period, but of course there will be winners and losers.
The Fed will continue buying bonds to keep rates in check. Both interest rates and inflation will increase, with inflation exceeding interest rates fairly substantially—eg 10 - 15 % inflation and 6-7 % yield on long treasuries, due to Fed purchases.
The only way I can wrap my head around this statement is that the 10%-15% inflation that you cite would be considerably more aggressive without much higher interest rates. So, doesn't the Fed's purchase of more & more bonds imply even more and more money printing - simply adding to the inflationary fire? I understand how Fed purchases of bonds lowers rates, but how do Fed purchases of bonds lower inflation? I'm not sure that I understand.
Did Volker's Fed buy more bonds? I don't recall, but I do remember that Fed Funds went up to around 14% - which precipitated the 1981-2 Recession and stock market declines. Isn't that the point of tight money policy - to limit credit creation and by extension, to limit money creation, i.e. "taking away the punch bowl?"
Doesn't taking away the punch bowl put a damper on economic expansion, i.e. GDP output? The Fed's actions since 2008 have almost totally revolved around pumping the stock market in order to protect the large retirement funds (and hedge funds). Please explain how the Fed will get away with raising rates without causing major grief to the majority of working stiffs and retirees. I don't see it. Then again, working stiffs and retirees are not part of the Fed's clientele.
A global monetary conference will be held. A stabilized dollar will be one part of a new global system.
That seems to be the plan, brought to you by the same people who have run the current system into the ground while collecting their lucrative salaries. Is that not the case?
Real US GDP will do surprisingly well during this period, but of course there will be winners and losers.
The winners and losers are already apparent, and the winners won't be mom & pop enterprises (and other small businesses) in the centrally-planned economy that is controlled by the bankers, politicians and the large corporate interests. This is what really needs to be reformed, quickly - but I have my sincere doubts about that. There were good reasons for breaking up ATT way back then, and that analogy applies now even more so for organizations such as Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter and even Big Government.
On top of that, the social welfare problems that have been simmering for 50 years are also coming to a boil, and without a major change in direction & policy, these things are some of the mitigating factors that I see standing in the way of things working out in a good way economically for the foreseeable future. This is realism, not pessimism.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
Please explain how the Fed will get away with raising rates without causing major grief to the majority of working stiffs and retirees. I don't see it.
Retirees are begging for higher rates. And i have advocated for higher rates for years. Start paying people interest on their savings and the economy will boom. Interests rates rose from 2016 through 2018 and the economy was ripping--just as predicted.
Retirees will not spend the $300k they have in savings. Thats their nestegg. But give them $12,000 in interest (4%) on that money and they will spend it. Imagine, monetary stimulus without all the pork and congressional pet projects and governmental waste. That $12 grand goes right into the pockets of small businesses and restraurants, not pension plan bailouts and bombs. This helps the "working stiff".
And when the retirees die, that nestegg gets passed on to the next generation mitigates the inflation bite they will feel.
Difference of opinion is what makes conversation happen
Until the opinion focuses on the speaker and not the conversation. This is what separates the trolls from the legitimate conversationalists (Higash comes to mind) who have a different opinion.
If the people posting different opinions were truly the enemy why would you not want to see what they are posting. Isn’t it better to know what the enemy is doing before they attack?
Funny how you use the word "attack." Appears you agree that the differing opinion is often an attack on the speaker, something that should not occur when opinions differ.
I agree attacking the messenger is not ideal but the sword in this case has two edges.
Perception is everything. When people here oppose ones view some see it as attack. My choice of analogy could be changed.
Wouldn’t you want to know what pitch was coming when you are up to bat? Ask the Astros.
Difference of opinion is what makes conversation happen
Until the opinion focuses on the speaker and not the conversation. This is what separates the trolls from the legitimate conversationalists (Higash comes to mind) who have a different opinion.
If the people posting different opinions were truly the enemy why would you not want to see what they are posting. Isn’t it better to know what the enemy is doing before they attack?
Funny how you use the word "attack." Appears you agree that the differing opinion is often an attack on the speaker, something that should not occur when opinions differ.
I agree attacking the messenger is not ideal but the sword in this case has two edges.
Perception is everything. When people here oppose ones view some see it as attack. My choice of analogy could be changed.
Wouldn’t you want to know what pitch was coming when you are up to bat? Ask the Astros.
Is that analogy less hurtful?
hurtful? lol, I'm a big boy I can take it. The point is the rest of the forum should not have to be distracted by it. An open forum such as this should not have to tolerate a deviation from the discussion with the age old political trick of discrediting the speaker simply because you can't discredit the message. If you got a problem with the message I'm all ears. If you got a problem with me suck it up. It shouldn't be about me and you.
I don't see opposing views as the enemy. I see them as opposing views. Unfortunately we have a few here whose ego wants it to be a contest.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@jmski52 said:
Please explain how the Fed will get away with raising rates without causing major grief to the majority of working stiffs and retirees. I don't see it.
Retirees are begging for higher rates. And i have advocated for higher rates for years. Start paying people interest on their savings and the economy will boom. Interests rates rose from 2016 through 2018 and the economy was ripping--just as predicted.
Retirees will not spend the $300k they have in savings. Thats their nestegg. But give them $12,000 in interest (4%) on that money and they will spend it. Imagine, monetary stimulus without all the pork and congressional pet projects and governmental waste. That $12 grand goes right into the pockets of small businesses and restraurants, not pension plan bailouts and bombs. This helps the "working stiff".
And when the retirees die, that nestegg gets passed on to the next generation mitigates the inflation bite they will feel.
Great pre-2008 answer. However under the "new laws of economics" the majority of working stiffs and retirees make ends meet by paying interest on the debt required to accommodate their needs and very often their desired life style. These same retirees often have a nest egg but prefer to finance current expenses with debt rather than touch the "emergency" fund. Interest is just another monthly expense to most Americans. Increase that expense with higher rates will only reduce their ability to spend elsewhere. Higher rates clog the gears of money velocity.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
What happened in 2018 the last time that the Fed tried to raise rates? Aren't nest eggs heavily dependent upon stocks these days? Are retirees going to convert $300K into bonds if rates go higher? I don't think you understand the dynamics.
If pension plans are 60% bonds / 40% stocks (the classic strategy for various retirement scenarios depending on age), you ought to know that any stock market weakness will be exacerbated if rates rise, causing money to come out of the stock market, but why on earth would anyone buy into bonds when rates are rising and bond principal is being eroded? Duh.
give them $12,000 in interest (4%) on that money and they will spend it. Imagine, monetary stimulus without all the pork and congressional pet projects and governmental waste.
If you already owned bonds at higher yields when rates are declining, you win. If you buy bonds with rates are rising, you are not very smart. Further, Even if people were able to make 4% on $300K - what about the 50% who have less than $300 to their name? Imagining that pork and congressional pet projects and government waste will somehow disappear - is magical smoke. Explain how you think that would work.
The Fed has screwed up just about everyone's futures with their refusal to let the markets self-correct since 1987. Of course, the regulators aren't helping by looking the other way when HFT and derivatives are perpetually used to game the markets.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
History will blame the "family office" hedge funds but in reality it will be the fault of their sugar daddy bankers who made it all possible. Appears all those lights in the OP ended up revealing some very dark banking business. We're gonna need at least one more Magic Money Tree.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Just like the great silver squeeze. It was this week and all the sudden this week is last week and they really mean next week. I suspect there will be many lights on again this weekend and this time next week will be groundhog day. THKS!
Comments
This is the most interesting thread in a long time............sounds like somebody's not going to get paid. So what would "they" (as cohodk might say) do to fix the problem?
Last time, the scapegoat and sacrificial lamb was Lehman; the rest of the club all got bailed out by Congress, and why would anyone expect differently this time? Only this time it's hedge funds and the banks.
Last time, it was $800 billion for the banks and major changes in the accounting rules for bad loan tranches that stay on the books at full value in perpetuity and it's all good. Congress is already spewing out $trillions faster than you can keep up in a democrat spending orgy in an attempt to buy votes in 2022.
Now what? I guess that the legal staffs are part of the 3AM program. If I were one of the bank CEOs, what would I be doing, besides yelling at my staff? Probably wiring funds to somewhere in South America or Switzerland.
I knew it would happen.
I just wasted 10 minutes of my life that I cannot get back. Ugh!
Stock Market Leverage in La-La Land Rises to Historic High
"As the world has seen unfold with Archegos, the amounts of other types of stock market leverage aren’t known. Even Wall Street banks that deal with their clients don’t know about their clients’ total leverage at other banks. Each bank knew how much leverage Archegos had with it, but not how much it had with other banks, or that it had any leverage with other banks."
"And when banks issued their margin calls – said to have been the second largest margin call in US history, after Lehman – and liquidated the underlying shares, they were selling those shares against each other. The first-out-the-door, including Goldman Sachs, came away relatively unscathed. Late movers, such as Credit Suisse got mauled."
Margin debt. Just another caustic form of financial fractional magic. Funny how debt is always at the center of all financial problems. This episode is another classic case of banking greed. This could very well be the black swan we knew would arrive.
As the leverage cancer spreads it is threatening not only the banking system but the stock market as well. The weekend warriors were possibly scouring contracts to find ways to be the first to issue margin calls and take possession of leveraged shares in order to be at the front of the line selling them. As the threat to the banks and especially stock markets rapidly grows, look for the FED, regulators and Congress to roll out the firetrucks. At least they now have the Magic Money Tree at their disposal.
Seems there have been numerous warnings here over the years of being near a chair "when the music stops." Banks appear to now be racing for an empty chair.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mukhin/retail_owns_almost_twice_the_float/
^ Retail investors may own about twice the $GME float.
$GME vs. the Russell 2000:
The MOASS that doesn't exist is sure being talked about a lot in media.
Do you guys have Twitter or visit reddit? Instagram, other hobby forums? Because it sounds like the people are ready for armed revolt or violence. (I do NOT advocate any violence bc that's not how we solve most problems).
The 4/22 SEC implementation not only requires shorts to prove they can cover every day. It also allows the DTC to seize assets from overleveraged short sellers (like all of the banks that are short on $SLV) and auction them off.
I don't follow $GLD and $SLV because market fundamentals mean nothing in a rigged market. But it seems a lot of people really believe in them, and people are going wild over something about gold.
Edit/Update: Someone who plays manipulated stocks for a living:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/munkug/the_market_collapse_has_already_begun_and_has/
"I spend hours looking at charts every day. I am very familiar with the trend line for every single one of the stocks in my watchlist; if you were to print out a 1-year chart of every one of these stocks, without labeling them, I’m pretty confident that I could tell you the company associated with every chart. So I assure you, the trends are not normal.
"Here’s my theory: The mass sell-off is probably going towards covering the shorts they actually covered (if any at all), interest, and the capital needed to purchase the blocks of shares they’d sell off to drive down the price. They were able to get away with it because people don’t tend to follow a bunch of garbage stocks, and since penny stocks are known to be extremely volatile, it doesn't raise any eyebrows when one tanks 30-50% in a short timespan, or even in a single day. And media outlets don’t really look into penny stocks too much.
"Also, this is entirely speculation, but I’ve also noticed that when penny stocks cool down they will trade sideways for weeks. Understandable if there’s low volume, but sometimes there are days when the volume will randomly be extremely high, but the price remains stagnant and there’s no news whatsoever to explain the high volume. It seems like an algorithm keeps the price bouncing back and forth, propping it up. But they aren’t bouncing back and forth, they’re just bleeding. HFs may have run out of money to prop up the stocks, so that’s why they’re sinking. Again, this is speculation, I don’t know what really goes on behind the curtain."
Edit:
There's also a silver raid today so expect inventory to get wiped out. If you're selling, it's a great day to mark everything up.
Edit2:
LBMA says another silver raid will wipe them out.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TFMetals/status/1384341392638595073
Edit 3: I thought this painted a pretty clear picture.
How hedge funds and their sugar daddy banks conspire to avoid billions in taxes from sales of stocks.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Az, you really need to reduce the size of your phone screen shots. Better yet use your desktop.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I dunno.....all I know I have stayed long stocks over the long term and made alot of money for myself and clients.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I dunno.....all I know I have stayed long stocks over the long term and made alot of money for myself and clients.
When the Fed is doubling down on money printing and most of it goes into the stock market, that would be a logical outcome.
What happens when a liquidity crisis hits at the same time that the currency has been devalued and everybody knows it? There will be very few places to hide, if any.
I knew it would happen.
a tangential read, but a must read -
Key investor in $100 million NJ deli has a history of legal problems, ties to criminals
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/hometown-international-nj-deli-linked-legal-problems.html
A horrific group of psychopaths, no doubt. But why a "must read," MsMorrisine? Was there a point you were making in the context of the thread?
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
level of corruption that can exist in the financial system.
Seriously dude. I know its 4/20 and youre in Colorado, but man, youre stretching.
Banks still reporting record profits. Stock markets at record highs. Sheesh, even fake money has made people rich.
If youve listened you would know ive been tooting the inflation horn since 4/20--as in April 2020-- when global CB flooded their economies with Trillions. In fact, about a week ago i posted a chart of $PPI that is about break out of a 12 year consolidation. I asked some to give their interpretation, and as usual got only the typical generic, vague and aloof responses.
So many folk on this forum like to be spoon fed fish rather than learn to fish. Its become a great little microcosm of society. Eventually, y'all might see how "they" feed upon you. Nah, probably not.
PS--y'all is not meant to be all inclusionary, some of you do get it.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It's 4/20 in The Commonwealth too! Everything's in full blossom and it's about to faackin freeze and snow. Lumber's outrageous but all the mills around here are packed full of wood like I've never seen before. Maybe JPM left silver and started manipulating the lumber market? Lulz!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mv1ozd/i_work_for_one_of_the_largest_banks_in_the_world
@derryb dude
"400+ branches. We were all abruptly rushed out at 2:00pm today, panic closed for an unspecified emergency and not told if we’ll be back tomorrow. Employee speculation was that it has something to do with the Derek Chauvin verdict, however, the news he was found guilty had already been released. I offer no other info or speculation, but it’s definitely incredibly weird. We didn’t even close when there were active protests / riots last summer.
I still have no word on if we’ll be back to business as usual tomorrow. Things are peaceful in my area in regards to the Chauvin verdict and I don’t know of any planned marches. I will reiterate that at the height of the protests last summer, even when our branches were directly in the path of civil unrest, we remained open yet alert, for the most part. This is an operational anomaly for us."
This might be why
"I work in the banking world but not for a bank that was seized, but from what people say, the feds come in and basically take over on the spot at all locations simultaneously. Most employees are sent home and not allowed to take any possessions (although that is arranged in a timely way for them to get that). A few employees tend to be "offered jobs" with the governing agency to wrap shit up and help participate in an orderly transfer of everything to another bank so consumers are impacted as minimally as possible.
Again, and I cannot stress this enough, this is what I have heard through the work grapevine and was around 2008 when it was being discussed. So take this with one of those obscenely large salt rocks they have at fancy spas."
And another:
"Okay so... 7 large banks just had to raise a ton of money selling bonds... banks around the world have been burning the midnight oil on weekends for some unknown reason... dtcc has been changing rules more than I change my underwear... at least 4-5 (I’ve lost count at this point) hedge funds have blown up... covid is still a problem and the economy is as weak as ever, but the markets are at all time highs... US treasury bonds and many ETFs are shorted to oblivion... GME shorts still haven’t covered (lol)"
New SEC rules on 4/22 boys.
The mother of all margin calls is coming.
Some people don't see the train coming.
Once.
May I clarify:
Do people on this board believe that people chatting on reddit have knowledge of a banking failure of massive global proportions that has not yet been picked up by the mainstream media, eg, the WSJ or the Economist?
Some may call it the twilight zone. Whatever you want to make of it, I guess welcome to the tinfoil hat club. For some, listening to it long enough they start to believe it. Fact or fiction doesn't matter in the world of conspiracy.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
You will find that all of the original posts in all of the reddit links in the OP do nothing more than point out the unusual heavy activity at numerous global-wide financial office buildings over the weekend. Subsequent posts here by forum members are questioning why. I have commented that I believe it to be fallout from massive leveraging by the banks with hedge funds and the risk it suddenly poses to participating banks. And yes, this fallout, because of the massive leveraging, could have drastic implications for the banking sector and ultimately financial stability. One of the many things learned from the "housing" crisis is that the banks are interlinked to the point that when one fails they all become threatened. They are dominoes looking for a push.
The Archegos failure has put the spotlight on the hedge fund/banker relationship and the suddenly realized risk placed on these banks by ungodly amounts of leverage. Any one of these banks could easily become the first domino. And as we have learned, a major bank at risk easily puts everything financial at risk.
If one could only rely on mainstream financial news to give them the truth there would be no need for tin hat speculation.
Example? OK:
The Crime Culture at the Five Felony-Count Bank.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I just read this thread on the internet so I know everything in it must be true!!!!!!!!!
Yes, unfortunately many do. Scary isnt it? And when things dont materialize as promised they cry victim and whine about how unfair, corrupt and manipulated everything is. They say the system is rigged.
What I find most fascinating, is that people hate being told HOW to think, but they have no qualms about being told WHAT to think.
In this instance the OP starts with "unusual activity". What is unusual about it? Lights on at 3am, like theyve never been on before? Then the story morphs into speculation about short selling, hedge funds and the comex imploding. Folk see manipulation all about, but never in themselves.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I may not be the sharpest tool in the shed but this one line sums up the thread.
Op already said he blocked several users on the forum because they post dissenting opinion so they must be bots trolls or paid shills.
Difference of opinion is what makes conversation happen
If the people posting different opinions were truly the enemy why would you not want to see what they are posting. Isn’t it better to know what the enemy is doing before they attack?
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Until the opinion focuses on the speaker and not the conversation. This is what separates the trolls from the legitimate conversationalists (Higash comes to mind) who have a different opinion.
Funny how you use the word "attack." Appears you agree that the differing opinion is often an attack on the speaker, something that should not occur when opinions differ.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
More than likely just the cleaning crew rather than some global banksters all up at 3AM conspiring to short all our silver away.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Makes sense. The Cleaners of the World union likely had all the cleaners concentrate on the bank offices all at once. Explains why the lights are all off in the non-banking offices. You funny.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
who says they even turn out the lights?
they must have finished work over the weekend as I haven't heard another all nighter report.
It should be relatively simple to observe whether or not the lights are on every night, and whether or not the lights are on this coming weekend.
I knew it would happen.
I also do not have a need for or seek out constant and continual confirmation bias.
Nope, just normalcy bias. The WSJ used to be objective, but they haven't been that for years. I can't even say that much about CNBC.
I knew it would happen.
Apparently they are only busy shorting silver from the office at 3AM on Sunday mornings.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Oops, make that more than $20B.
Bank CEO and risk officer not even aware of Archegos exposure.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
gunna be hard to shake that stain
Some inside the bank who were familiar with Archegos’s exposure had thought it was a fraction of the roughly $20 billion figure, one of the people familiar with the matter said.
:.
:.
Credit Suisse is scheduled to report its first-quarter results on Thursday, when it is expected to publish more details about the overall damage Archegos had on its finances.
Apparently they are only busy shorting silver from the office at 3AM on Sunday mornings.
Aren't paper derivatives contracts wonderful? Don't try to sell me on the idea that the CEO and Chief Risk Officer weren't aware.
I knew it would happen.
Have to wonder how many of you really realize how bad the world will be if there is 500$ silver... inflation would destroy the US.
The fed has created an impossible situation.. raise rates and bankrupt the fed/nation... don't raise rates and bankrupt the citizens...
I understand many of us were holding the bag from the 08/09 manipulation but please do not wish a global financial depression on us just to increase the value of your stack..
The stack should be one asset class in your portfolio..
Trade wars/currency wars lead to hot wars....
Becareful what you hope for
please do not wish a global financial depression on us just to increase the value of your stack..
Gimme a break. Who's saying anything like that? This isn't Reddit.
I knew it would happen.
@Relaxn said: “ The fed has created an impossible situation.. raise rates and bankrupt the fed/nation... don't raise rates and bankrupt the citizens...”
It will likely be a mess for a bit, but I think it will mostly work out. My wild guess: we will finally start seeing upward pressure on interest rates, especially at the long end of the yield curve. The Fed will continue buying bonds to keep rates in check. Both interest rates and inflation will increase, with inflation exceeding interest rates fairly substantially—eg 10 - 15 % inflation and 6-7 % yield on long treasuries, due to Fed purchases. For five years or so, it will be very hard to get the political will to get back to “normal” positive real rates. After prices have doubled or tripled, a “Volker 2” will emerge, crushing inflation. A global monetary conference will be held. A stabilized dollar will be one part of a new global system. Real US GDP will do surprisingly well during this period, but of course there will be winners and losers.
The Fed will continue buying bonds to keep rates in check. Both interest rates and inflation will increase, with inflation exceeding interest rates fairly substantially—eg 10 - 15 % inflation and 6-7 % yield on long treasuries, due to Fed purchases.
The only way I can wrap my head around this statement is that the 10%-15% inflation that you cite would be considerably more aggressive without much higher interest rates. So, doesn't the Fed's purchase of more & more bonds imply even more and more money printing - simply adding to the inflationary fire? I understand how Fed purchases of bonds lowers rates, but how do Fed purchases of bonds lower inflation? I'm not sure that I understand.
Did Volker's Fed buy more bonds? I don't recall, but I do remember that Fed Funds went up to around 14% - which precipitated the 1981-2 Recession and stock market declines. Isn't that the point of tight money policy - to limit credit creation and by extension, to limit money creation, i.e. "taking away the punch bowl?"
Doesn't taking away the punch bowl put a damper on economic expansion, i.e. GDP output? The Fed's actions since 2008 have almost totally revolved around pumping the stock market in order to protect the large retirement funds (and hedge funds). Please explain how the Fed will get away with raising rates without causing major grief to the majority of working stiffs and retirees. I don't see it. Then again, working stiffs and retirees are not part of the Fed's clientele.
A global monetary conference will be held. A stabilized dollar will be one part of a new global system.
That seems to be the plan, brought to you by the same people who have run the current system into the ground while collecting their lucrative salaries. Is that not the case?
Real US GDP will do surprisingly well during this period, but of course there will be winners and losers.
The winners and losers are already apparent, and the winners won't be mom & pop enterprises (and other small businesses) in the centrally-planned economy that is controlled by the bankers, politicians and the large corporate interests. This is what really needs to be reformed, quickly - but I have my sincere doubts about that. There were good reasons for breaking up ATT way back then, and that analogy applies now even more so for organizations such as Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter and even Big Government.
On top of that, the social welfare problems that have been simmering for 50 years are also coming to a boil, and without a major change in direction & policy, these things are some of the mitigating factors that I see standing in the way of things working out in a good way economically for the foreseeable future. This is realism, not pessimism.
I knew it would happen.
Retirees are begging for higher rates. And i have advocated for higher rates for years. Start paying people interest on their savings and the economy will boom. Interests rates rose from 2016 through 2018 and the economy was ripping--just as predicted.
Retirees will not spend the $300k they have in savings. Thats their nestegg. But give them $12,000 in interest (4%) on that money and they will spend it. Imagine, monetary stimulus without all the pork and congressional pet projects and governmental waste. That $12 grand goes right into the pockets of small businesses and restraurants, not pension plan bailouts and bombs. This helps the "working stiff".
And when the retirees die, that nestegg gets passed on to the next generation mitigates the inflation bite they will feel.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I agree attacking the messenger is not ideal but the sword in this case has two edges.
Perception is everything. When people here oppose ones view some see it as attack. My choice of analogy could be changed.
Wouldn’t you want to know what pitch was coming when you are up to bat? Ask the Astros.
Is that analogy less hurtful?
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hurtful? lol, I'm a big boy I can take it. The point is the rest of the forum should not have to be distracted by it. An open forum such as this should not have to tolerate a deviation from the discussion with the age old political trick of discrediting the speaker simply because you can't discredit the message. If you got a problem with the message I'm all ears. If you got a problem with me suck it up. It shouldn't be about me and you.
I don't see opposing views as the enemy. I see them as opposing views. Unfortunately we have a few here whose ego wants it to be a contest.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Great pre-2008 answer. However under the "new laws of economics" the majority of working stiffs and retirees make ends meet by paying interest on the debt required to accommodate their needs and very often their desired life style. These same retirees often have a nest egg but prefer to finance current expenses with debt rather than touch the "emergency" fund. Interest is just another monthly expense to most Americans. Increase that expense with higher rates will only reduce their ability to spend elsewhere. Higher rates clog the gears of money velocity.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Retirees are begging for higher rates.
What happened in 2018 the last time that the Fed tried to raise rates? Aren't nest eggs heavily dependent upon stocks these days? Are retirees going to convert $300K into bonds if rates go higher? I don't think you understand the dynamics.
If pension plans are 60% bonds / 40% stocks (the classic strategy for various retirement scenarios depending on age), you ought to know that any stock market weakness will be exacerbated if rates rise, causing money to come out of the stock market, but why on earth would anyone buy into bonds when rates are rising and bond principal is being eroded? Duh.
give them $12,000 in interest (4%) on that money and they will spend it. Imagine, monetary stimulus without all the pork and congressional pet projects and governmental waste.
If you already owned bonds at higher yields when rates are declining, you win. If you buy bonds with rates are rising, you are not very smart. Further, Even if people were able to make 4% on $300K - what about the 50% who have less than $300 to their name? Imagining that pork and congressional pet projects and government waste will somehow disappear - is magical smoke. Explain how you think that would work.
The Fed has screwed up just about everyone's futures with their refusal to let the markets self-correct since 1987. Of course, the regulators aren't helping by looking the other way when HFT and derivatives are perpetually used to game the markets.
I knew it would happen.
If “it” means aderall, concerta and cocaine, I agree!
OK, I'll be the one. . . We are at a Wall Street top.
And here's why.
History will blame the "family office" hedge funds but in reality it will be the fault of their sugar daddy bankers who made it all possible. Appears all those lights in the OP ended up revealing some very dark banking business. We're gonna need at least one more Magic Money Tree.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
So, today is the mother of all margin calls? Wasn't it supposed to be Wednesday?
Or will it be on Monday?
Sell, Randolph and Mortimer! 😂
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Or did he mean April 2022? (4/22)
https://youtube.com/watch?v=-BkcictxDCA
Just like the great silver squeeze. It was this week and all the sudden this week is last week and they really mean next week. I suspect there will be many lights on again this weekend and this time next week will be groundhog day. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I must have been dozing when all those world wide entities did an all nighter....Is it over? And what, if any, was accomplished.