Typical Collector here, back with a question, how does a coin go down 50% in 2 years?
BAYOUBENGAL
Posts: 97 ✭✭✭
I always appreciate the help here. I am a collector for many years and love the hobby. I’m more than happy to buy coins and have dealers make their profit as long as it is “fair” admittedly a hard to define term. Last time here I asked for help to find some dealers to trust and I found some and am happy with them and hope they are with me. So new question looking at a coin in upcoming Legend auction. I’m looking at a 1936 Wisconsin commemorative in PCGS 67+CaC and the auction note Says:
PCGS 50, NGC 44, CAC 28. There are 11 in MS68+ and NONE FINER at PCGS. We sold a similar example in September 2018 for $15,275 and another in May 2018 for $16,450. The current Collectors Universe value is $12,000. With NONE finer at PCGS, this exceptional quality coin will fit nicely in ANY top ranking set. Good luck!
Yet the expected price is $7-8,000, what am I missing how did it go from $15K+ to half that??? It seems so cheap at $8k...I realize prices go up an down but is this a good buy at $8K?
As always I know I need more education and am ready to learn. Thanks in advance for your help.
CFA, LSU AND ANA
Comments
Legend lists hammer prices, so add 17.5% to that. That’s part of it. Also, they tend to be conservative in their estimates (so consignors feel better when it sells higher???).
But, estimates mean nothing. Go on actual prices realized.
Oh, and values jump all over the place in thin markets. Top-pop commems certainly qualify.
So if I buy below $10K I have done great?
CFA, LSU AND ANA
The auction has yet to take place. Who knows what it will bring.
LOL, that’s a huge over-simplification! It depends on the coin. Pricing a coin is a topic that could require hundreds of pages to discuss properly.
You haven’t won it yet, right??
Interest shift and coupled with the "wrong" collectors looking at an auction vs the "right" collectors could made a difference between closing price vs worth.
It doesn't simply depend on the coin. The prior prices were strong functions of who was bidding--if two or three whales exit a niche market and others don't step up to replace them, prices will tumble quickly.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Low estimates are also a factor so that if the auction house gives pre auction advances
they can recover the loan easier if higher bids do not get placed.
Not my pool, but I think it might be wise to read what @BryceM said again.
The part about thin markets and pop-top's is succinct.
Look at prices realized at grade, and maybe check the under-grade and see if they've shifted.
Also, remember Commemorative's, as a whole, have slid a long ways over the last couple years, so such an estimate to prices realized a couple years ago may not be that surprising, especially if, as Bryce said, Legend is listing the hammer, and under-estimating a touch (under promise and over deliver).
Is the slide finished and a rebound in order?
Is the bottom in?
Could it be the opportunity you've been waiting for to get a Superb Gem you've always wanted?
I can't answer those questions ... but you'll want to consider them when picking your price points.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
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You said you’re looking at a “67+“ but you mentioned the listed CU value for a 68+ (and I’m guessing the quoted auction results are also for 68+, not 67+ examples).
That aside, coins can sell for more or less than estimated and they might be inferior or superior to others that have sold for considerably less or more. So, while it can happen, it’s not necessarily the case that a coin has dropped 50% in two years. Based on the information provided, there’s no way to know if $8000 would be a good deal or a bad deal.
Based on your questions, I’d be very careful about spending money on coins, until you understand the market much better.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Meld sorry, I’m looking at 68+....
CFA, LSU AND ANA
The first thought that came into my mind when I read the title of your post was, "Silver Commemorative." My suggestion ; read the last sentence of MFeld's post. He nailed it.
There's no telling where that price will go. You just have to be prepared to bid your best and hold your breath.
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Probably the most common reason for a dramatic price drop is an increase in the population or the potential for same. PCGS has currently graded 39 Wisconsin commems as MS68, and many of those are candidates to become MS68+ at some point. There are also other MS68+ candidates in non-PCGS holders, or even raw. The population is certain to increase over time.
When I look at the two Wisconsin examples in this auction, the eye appeal of the non-CAC'd MS68 seems superior to the MS68+. The look of the 68+ is nice, but not especially so in my book. Here, there will be plenty of differences of opinion. Judging either of these coins from the available photos is almost certainly a mistake and you'll surely miss many of the finer details.
Coin Facts lists five MS68+ auction sales since April of 2017. There are 11 in this grade, so they trade around publicly with some frequency. The highest sale was for $16,450 and the low was $7,200 (both were CAC stickered). Prices have been all over the place, which is something that can land a novice in huge trouble. If you know the series and have experience with Wisconsin coins at that grade level, you'll be perfectly confident developing your own bid ceiling that makes sense for a particular coin. If not, you're really just guessing and remember, you're competing with many exerts who have carefully examined the coin in-hand. It is safer to make an aggressive bid for a coin/holder/grade/sticker combination with a consistent price history over long periods of time. The huge spread in prices here is modestly unusual, and it's obviously going to be difficult for anyone to estimate where this coin will sell. You don't want to be the guy who pays $15,000 and gets only $7,000 when you go to sell it in a few years. This happens ALL THE TIME.
If I was pursuing this coin (I am currently looking for a nice Wisconsin, BTW) I'd either want to see it in person, have a trusted expert take a look, or preferably both. Every once in a while I'll take a gamble on something without seeing it in-hand first, but almost never without a return privilege. It's a great way to get burned.
The OP's coin is already up to $7,900 (with juice) so it has already done better than the worst of the bunch, and has met the auction house's estimate. There is still a week to go and many coins jump several bid increments during live bidding.
Shipwrecks being discovered, people finding hoards with metal detectors...
Sometimes I think that animals are smarter than humans, animals would never allow the dumbest one to lead the pack
Not if you can only sell it for $7k five years from now.
Supply and demand drives prices...timing has a lot to do with it as well. It pays to know your audience.
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Actual prices sold for, minus hammer, give a good indication of value (at the time) to that bidding audience. They are not necessarily an indicator for current value, or even real value 'now' (now being some future time). It is good to study pricing history, but understand the nuances involved. Cheers, RickO
I’m looking at a 1936 Wisconsin commemorative in PCGS 67+CaC
PCGS price guide for a Wisconsin graded MS67+ is $650. if that little green sticker is that important to you, I say swing away. another approach might be to buy another MS67+ absent the sticker which will be essentially indistinguishable from the Legend coin, the you can pocket the $7-10k and use the money to soothe your ego.
remember, those $12-15k prices are for the MS68+ graded coin.
Coin market performance can vary (YMMV).
One needs to define their risk level (per item) and stick with / be aware of that. For instance if total inventory value is x and plan inventory quantity is y, average plan risk amount is x / y per item. The higher the item the higher it’s risk.
One needs good grading, pricing, and market assessment skills in RCI. Many items can have qualitative factors affecting marketability / what bring on bourse / auction. Buyers of big ticket material can be very picky / unpredictable also.
We have been in uncertain waters, rogue waves for some time - covid, economy, tens of millions jobless. Many will never totally recover.
Considering current market conditions I can’t even decide which way even bullion may go let alone some esoteric super expensive numismatic item (vs MS65 generic $, WLH, or gold slabbed material close to melt).
In terms of how can something go down 50 pct in 2 years I would suggest a review of the 89 market crash. Many lost money big time / went bankrupt. The bigger the jump in price to the next higher grade the larger the risk in my view. For me minimum investment grade is MS64 (as defined by David Hall - his book on RCI circa 1989). Increases in pop numbers are another factor too. Sadly if somebody paid too much they are the end user.
Bryce, great stuff. And this is where I need to do better. Are you a dealer?
CFA, LSU AND ANA
No he isn’t, but he’s a smart cookie!
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
I'd rather purchase a nice CAC MS-67+ for $500-600. It's still a nice coin. Unless your ready to play the top pop game in the commem market then there's no reason to go for the higher graded coin.
Why do you want a high grade Wisconsin?
Meaning, how does it fit in your collection?
The answer might inform your strategy.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I sold my OGH MS68 CAC Wisconsin from my registry set a few years ago in a better market and after a LOT of effort for $5800 and I was thrilled. Unless Registry is your master, I would hunt around for a nice 67-67+ and get it stickered
Commems and Early Type
Estimate price and the actual price are two different thing.
Also low estimate means auction house knows actual price will be much higher. High estimate price is to get the sucker to bid on the item, those item usually is hard to sell. Always do your home work, don't trust what auction house has to say.
The real question seems to relate more to auction estimates. And the question of how auction estimates are determined vary. I see it as a slippery slope and I am not going there.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
That’s not necessarily true. I’ve seen more than a few coins sell below the low estimate, and others sell at well above the high estimate.
Also, if, as you stated, the auction house “knows actual price will be much higher” than the low estimate, that would at least partially negate your claim that the high estimate is “to get sucker to bid on the item”.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
has it sold and is it the same coin?
estimate : 1000 - 2000. I don't mean that 2000 is high estimate. I meant when coin is hard to sell they put in a high estimate hoping to get someone to bid one or two bids. For those hot coin they put is a very low estimate. For example in recent HA auction, HA start bidding on a coin for $1. It sold for 660K. Another example: for a coin is hard to sell for 1000 they might put in a estimate 2000 - 2500 hopping some one will bid on 1000.
that's a might be a sucker bid because auction house did not mean to sell that coin even for low end of estimate for that coin. There is always a reason why coin sell below estimate in most cases.
Your above example shows that your theory is incorrect. As far as I know, for Heritage’s U.S. coin auctions, none of the lots even have published estimates and all of them start at $1. And if there are reserves, they’re posted.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Yep, if when you sell there are bidders and at least two with nuclear bids go for it!
bob
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How do you know I refereed to a US coin? You always making wrong assumption.
This is the U.S. coin forum and
the OP asked about U.S. coins. If I made a wrong assumption (like I “always” do, according to you) what was the non-U.S. coin in your example that opened at $1 and sold for $660,000? Thank you.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
https://coins.ha.com/itm/china/world-coins/china-yunnan-hsuan-t-ung-spring-dollar-cd-1910-au58-ngc-/a/3084-30141.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515
Thank you and if you won it, congratulations.😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I did not know HA US coin auction no estimate because I don't collect US coin. I did bid on some US coin auction once in a while just for the fun of it. I learned something new from you today.
A top pop coin may not remain a top pop coin for long. Years ago, someone purchased a 53 S FB Franklin in MS 66, which was a top pop coin at the time. A year and a half later, another one was made. The guy bailed; he lost a good $17K on his coin.
Rolls / half rolls of supergrade 1886 and 1912 S Nickels were found over the last several years.
Per the above, I stay out of the top pop pool.
Actually, nobody has revealed the true reason. The 50% reduction in two years usually is a result of me buying one.
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My mind reader refuses to charge me....
As a collector who has been at it 60 years, who has a type set of the 50 “old” commemorative silver coins, in grades ranging from MS-63 to 66, I have a hard time relating to these prices.
The Wisconsin commemorative half dollar is a common issue that is easy to obtain. It also features one of the more amateurish designs in the series. For me there is isn’t a Wisconsin commemorative half dollar on the planet that is worth $16,000 or even $8,000. I know that I am not alone with that opinion.
You are dealing with a very thin market. It is largely made up of registry collectors who are looking for the most points and highest standing. I wonder how many of them gaze at their Wisconsin coin in an MS-67 or 68 holder and wonder at its beauty the way I do with an 1800 half dime in MS-64?
If this is your thing with the high grade numbers and CAC approvals, then go for it. If you are concerned about getting your money out in the future, I would tell you to tread softly. As a whole the “old” commemorative coin market has been weak for years. That shows a lack of collector support. You could be getting into this just before things take off, but you could be reserving a deck chair on the financial Titanic.