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The year was 2020....there was some economic news and it actually influenced the PM markets

MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 25,258 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited August 17, 2020 5:06PM in Precious Metals

imagine the commodities reacting to current economic news.

now discuss that.

Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
«13

Comments

  • rte592rte592 Posts: 629 ✭✭✭✭

    Something set off the rocket this afternoon.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Metals jumped because those not paying attention thought Warren Buffet was betting on them. What Warren was actually betting on was other people betting on them. If he were actually betting on gold, he would have bought gold. He bought a large stake in a large mining company.

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,549 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 17, 2020 6:13PM

    Global central banks flooded their economies with trillions.

    Global interest rates flattened which has weakened the dollar.

    Substantial supply disruption due to global shutdown of manufacturing has elevated inflationary pressures.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 25,258 ✭✭✭✭✭

    check silver at 9pm eastern.

    @rte592 said:
    Something set off the rocket this afternoon.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 3,149 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:
    check silver at 9pm eastern.

    @rte592 said:
    Something set off the rocket this afternoon.

    Let's put some lipstick on this pig and pump her to $30, maybe even $40.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I want another dip.

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Global central banks flooded their economies with trillions.

    Global interest rates flattened which has weakened the dollar.

    Substantial supply disruption due to global shutdown of manufacturing has elevated inflationary pressures.

    The old supply and demand rules of law. . . for both the product and the currency that buys it. Nice to have them back even if only temporarily.

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • OPAOPA Posts: 16,369 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Good or Bad news associated with all aspects of Covid 19 is and will be the driving force behind PM's. Everything else is secondary.

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 17, 2020 8:03PM

    I would argue that PMs are responding to what existed before COVID. The pandemic only accelerated the downfall of an already broken economy and an already broken economic policy. COVID was merely the pin that popped the unicorn bubble. And in true fashion, the response is to provide more funding for equity purchases. Of note is the fact that FED had resumed massive QE in late 2019 before there was a COVID.

    A strong economy (i.e controlled debt, consumer savings, a manufacturing base vs. a service economy) would have been much more resilient. If nothing else COVID gave those that failed us the scapegoat they prayed for. Never let a good crisis go to waste.

    While COVID related news will have very short term and very temporary influence on PMs, the fact remains that their strength lies in policy and dollar weakness.

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,549 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    A strong economy (i.e controlled debt, consumer savings, a manufacturing base vs. a service economy) would have been much more resilient.

    No matter how strong, if ordered to shut down, as it was, there will be problems.

    You cant have a strong economy if everyone is told to stay home.

    With all this money in peoples hands, imagine what happens when everything opens back up.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • ShadyDaveShadyDave Posts: 2,041 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm waiting for the "Three Gorges Dam" to fail. That will make things interesting across the globe with a man-made disaster affection hundreds of millions and one of the largest manufacturing centers in the world.

    China has even conceded the fact that the dam is buckling...

    https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3989579

  • topstuftopstuf Posts: 14,804 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    A strong economy (i.e controlled debt, consumer savings, a manufacturing base vs. a service economy) would have been much more resilient.

    No matter how strong, if ordered to shut down, as it was, there will be problems.

    You cant have a strong economy if everyone is told to stay home.

    With all this money in peoples hands, imagine what happens when everything opens back up.

    The bill collectors show up. B)

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 20,737 ✭✭✭✭✭

    8/18/20 - gold ran up +$30 and got smashed back to even, now it's up $6 already again.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • ReadyFireAimReadyFireAim Posts: 1,420 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 18, 2020 8:01AM

    A meteorite composed of 100% pure gold & 60 feet in diameter detonates high in the atmosphere on the 31st of August 2020.

    It breaks up evenly into approximately 35.27 ounce pieces and is strewn in a large field over a remote part of the Appalachian mountains.

    No injuries reported, however, the light show was said to be fabulous.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 20,737 ✭✭✭✭✭

    8/18/20 - the smackdowns sure don't last long these days. gold is back up +$21.30 from this morning's smackdown.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 39,547 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    8/18/20 - the smackdowns sure don't last long these days. gold is back up +$21.30 from this morning's smackdown.

    Yup. The never ending roller coaster ride. :D

  • 3stars3stars Posts: 1,526 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    I want another dip.

    Wish granted...

    Previous transactions: Wondercoin, goldman86
  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @3stars said:

    @derryb said:
    I want another dip.

    Wish granted...

    25.00, somebody poured gas on the fiat

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 25,258 ✭✭✭✭✭

    silver sold off at 2pm

    it coincides with the fed minutes release.

    what was in the report to cause the sell off?

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 19, 2020 12:39PM

    @MsMorrisine said:
    silver sold off at 2pm

    it coincides with the fed minutes release.

    what was in the report to cause the sell off?

    Actually began with market open (there's always an advance copy for a few select parties).

    More likely what was not in the report. . . a promise of more QE.

    Punch bowl will return, take advantage of its absence.

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 25,258 ✭✭✭✭✭

    check out silver chart on kitco

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:
    check out silver chart on kitco

    I did. Selloff began in the morning with the New York open in anticipation (foreknowledge?) of FED report contents. Report release at 2 pm confirmed what was expected and selloff accelerated.

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 20, 2020 1:46PM

    America’s “Bridge Loan” Is Up

    Pretty smart fella.

    "The reality is, the economy’s in very bad shape. The idea that we’re going to bounce back out of this with all this pent up demand is nonsense. The data is already indicating we’re in a recovery, yes. But if you fall into a 50 foot hole and climb 10 feet up, you’re still 40 feet in the hole."

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 23, 2020 6:07AM

    Next public event to affect gold demand:

    FED chair's speech at Jackson Hole symposium Aug. 27 at 9:10 am EST. How well he hides FED's fears will determine short term dollar and gold price directions. Look for FED to attempt to jawbone the dollar upward.

    As always, the price of gold is a direct reflection of faith in a central bank's ability manage the economy and in the fiat currency it promotes/prints. Current high gold price tells us faith continues to wane.

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,549 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 23, 2020 7:07AM

    .

    @derryb said:
    How well he hides FED's fears will determine short term dollar and gold price directions.

    Current high gold price tells us faith continues to wane.

    Youve stated opinion here and any attempt to discuss may appear to discredit the messenger.

    You talk about fear and confidence which is unquantifiable and not substantive so further discourse would again only appear to discredit the messenger. Since there is no substance, nothing further can be discussed.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 23, 2020 8:34AM

    Learn what FED "jawboning" is all about. Really not much different than how you "discuss."

    Again, for the record:

    Everything I say is my opinion.

    Everything I quote is obviously someone else's opinion.

    More of my opinion:

    The central bank's fear and panic are quantifiable. The number of dollars it creates to prop up markets is the yard stick. Continued money printing tells us the FED remains fearful, regardless of what they say. Hiding that fear with what they say is a FED official's number one priority.

    Faith in a central bank's actions (or lack of) is quantifiable. It is measured by the price paid for gold. Record gold prices tell us and the FED that faith is reaching record lows. The more the FED sees this faith falter, the more it will panic.

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,201 ✭✭✭✭✭

    They scoffed at King Midas, and Rumplestiltskin too, but who had the last laugh? The Roadrunner did, and the Acme corp. mining, jet engine, and roller skate divisions!

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) just another form of fiat

    "CBDCs are another form of fiat, unless that is, a CBDC is gold-backed. But none of the literature emanating from the establishment suggests or even mentions a sound money objective. We should therefore assume CBDCs will be just another form of inflationary fiat."

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,549 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Learn what FED "jawboning" is all about. Really not much different than how you "discuss."

    Again, for the record:

    Everything I say is my opinion.

    Then dont be so easily offended if others disagree or take you to task to defend your opinion. An opinion supported by fact or documentation and free of hyperbole and emotion can be quite persuasive.

    Meanwhile asset price inflation looks quite evident this morning. Financial assets at or near highs, existing home prices at or near highs and gold near highs.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Why new highs are so important to the FED

    FED chairman is all in

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,549 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 24, 2020 6:13AM

    @derryb said:
    Why new highs are so important to the FED

    FED chairman is all in

    Looks like a diversified portfolio.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 26, 2020 6:37AM

    Preview of FED Powell's speech this week: "Buy gold in case we have been wrong."

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 25, 2020 12:34PM

    Schiff: Government Is Trying To Replace The Economy With A Printing Press

    "When you have a dollar crisis that doesn’t matter anymore. You can’t print dollars because nobody wants them.”

    "The entire American economy is built on the foundation of the dollar being the world’s reserve currency. That is the secret sauce that makes this economy work. Once the dollar is just another currency, then it’s all over, it’s the end of the game for America. Because now we can’t consume unless we produce. Now we can’t borrow unless we save. We’ve been getting a free ride on the global gravy train. Well, that train is coming to an end and America is going to have to deal with its greatly diminished standard of living."

    Of course once this occurs the FED will reset to a Central Bank Digital Currency. Just another form of fiat with the same results.

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 25,258 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 25, 2020 2:09PM

    Singapore!

    https://www.singaporebudget.gov.sg/budget_2020/revenue-expenditure

    revised FY2019 Budget Revenues:: S$74+ Bil.

    Stimulus? (so far) about S$100 Bil. (20% of GDP)
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/17/singapore-announces-another-5point8-billion-to-boost-its-coronavirus-hit-economy.html

    2019 Deficit despite having a sovereign wealth fund S$1.65 Bil



    Lots of countries are doing what we are doing. Even China has bailouts. (here is one from May https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3086569/china-pledges-largest-ever-economic-rescue-package-save-jobs)



    everyone is doing it. what black swan will displace the us$ as the world's reserve currency?

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:

    what black swan will displace the us$ as the world's reserve currency?

    Green ink

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 25,258 ✭✭✭✭✭

    but everyone is printing... that's the point above.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The fact that everyone is printing and that non US trading partners have been creating more and more ways to trade without US dollars means they will very soon no longer need any US dollars. The need for dollars to conduct business between two non US trading partners is quickly become a thing of the past. That is what made the dollar the world reserve currency. It was forced upon them via the Bretton Woods Agreement at the end of WWII when it replaced the gold standard with the U.S. dollar as the global currency.

    "Why dollars? The United States held three-fourths of the world's supply of gold. No other currency had enough gold to back it as a replacement. The dollar's value was 1/35 of an ounce of gold. Bretton Woods allowed the world to slowly transition from a gold standard to a U.S. dollar standard."

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 26, 2020 6:05AM

    Jim Rickards: Why the elites and their central banks disparage and marginalize gold.

    "The bottom line is that economists know that gold could be a perfectly usable form of money. The reason they don’t want it is because it dilutes their monopoly power over printed money and therefore reduces their political power over people and nations."

    "Investors like to say that the price of gold is going up. But what is really happening is that the value of the dollar is going down (it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of gold). This is the real inflation and the real dollar collapse most investors miss at the early stages. Eventually, confidence in the dollar will be lost completely, central bankers will need to restore confidence, and they’ll turn to some type of gold standard to do so."

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,549 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    _"Investors like to say that the price of gold is going up. But what is really happening is that the value of the dollar is going down (it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of gold). This is the real inflation and the real dollar collapse most investors miss at the early stages.

    Can the same be said about investors in equities or real estate, or early bust quarters?


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,201 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 26, 2020 1:55PM

    Apparently, fair questions, rational thoughts, common sense, and logical reasoning are "on ignore" by some here. One in particular has taken to specifically advertising his "ignore-ance" of such posters and their posts, and will not see them anymore, unless someone else quotes them in a reply.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 26, 2020 4:10PM

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 3,149 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Baley said:
    Apparently, fair questions, rational thoughts, common sense, and logical reasoning are "on ignore" by some here. One in particular has taken to specifically advertising his "ignore-ance" of such posters and their posts, and will not see them anymore, unless someone else quotes them in a reply.

    The doomsdayers don't appreciate facts. They contradict their conspiracy theories. Much more convenient to just make stuff up.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,549 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 27, 2020 5:19AM

    never discussing the actual substance of what was said

    The irony.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • taxmadtaxmad Posts: 700 ✭✭✭
    edited August 27, 2020 5:38AM

    Fed announcement - gold spikes. Nice when markets are rational

    and then tanks... I give up

  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 27, 2020 6:21AM

    Paper short slam. Was primed and ready to take action (FED knew how metals would react). However, rationality has become underrated. Paper no longer covers rock. Demand will win the day.

    New York Grand Slam in process. Recent history shows they don't hold. Buying opportunity dead ahead.

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 20,737 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 28, 2020 8:57AM

    what black swan will displace the us$ as the world's reserve currency?

    debt defaults

    at some point, the debt can't be serviced without problematic inflation - just imagine what happens when money velocity actually begins to move

    this business of picking winners & losers with free debt money isn't sustainable without a major upset, kinda like what we are seeing now in terms of delinquent rent payments and civil unrest

    "Investors like to say that the price of gold is going up. But what is really happening is that the value of the dollar is going down (it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of gold). This is the real inflation and the real dollar collapse most investors miss at the early stages."

    Can the same be said about investors in equities or real estate, or early bust quarters?

    With the Fed buying everything from junk bonds, to real estate ETFs and the bonds of the 7 largest S&P companies, I would say "no" in those cases since they have favored status in the current scheme of picking winners & losers to override the normal market forces.

    In the case of early bust quarters, I'd say that there is no comparison because the market for gold is vastly different than the market for bust quarters.

    The Fed market manipulations seemingly have no bounds. We live in interesting times.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,549 ✭✭✭✭✭

    With the Fed buying everything... real estate ETFs and the bonds of the 7 largest S&P companies

    I do not believe the FED is buying these. You should fact check.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 25,258 ✭✭✭✭✭

    the fed is definitely buying bonds of some large companies like apple.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • derrybderryb Posts: 30,702 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 28, 2020 7:35PM

    The FED is responsible for our economic woes and has been for decades, Why is it worse now? Chickens are coming home to roost, can kicking has reached a cul-de-sac. Pandemic, shamdemic. . . FED began a massive QE in late 2019, well before the first Chinese sneeze. FED cheerleaders are the ones pushing for the endgame, not those who call out the FED for what they are. The cheerleaders want the sheep to remain blindfolded from the truth.

    The FED's Circular Firing-Squad... Got Gold?

    If I keep shrinking the value of the dollar, it makes it look like your stock portfolio is growing. But if you then take your stock portfolio and measure it in gold. . . - Peter Schiff

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,549 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 29, 2020 3:20AM

    The market capitalization for Apple has increased by $700 billion in the last 3 months.
    Thats equal to the TARP bailout in 2008.
    Thats enough to buy 2.3 million existing single family homes at 300k each--current sales prices.
    Thats enough to buy 20 million new cars.
    Thats enough to buy 3 1/2 years of global gold production.

    Massive wealth creation. Increases the gap between the haves and have nots. Increases inflation potential if those gains are monetized.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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