So, I dont know if that's COMPLETELY true. People are definitely slowing down. We thought we were recession proof... well, I knew the truth it just sucks its finally here.
Could be the realization the $600 UI kicker is ending tomorrow
could the next step be forced selling of the purchases?
I'm worried there are people who thought this was going to keep going uninterrupted.
March and April showed me people losing their houses and cars. May and June showed me people buying new cars, bbq's, junk for their kids. Some of my neighbors havent paid rent in months but were buying new stuff for their kids this whole time.
The type of stuff moving through Package facilities is all trampolines, pools, golf clubs, bikes, air conditioners and deep freezers. The employees who dont care if they're fired are complaining about it on social media. The amount of junk food and cakes and cookies and boxes of chips is outnumbering household goods or stuff like oatmeal, beans, rice products. Important medical supplies, medicine, etc is all being delayed.
I've thanked customers for their support and I have had a small number reply along the lines of "lol not like it's my money".
I mean... the people who overextended themselves are in for a rude awakening. Killing the UI benefit is gonna kill the economy.
@Azurescens said:
Yeppers.. I feared for awhile that benefit was the only reason why e-stores with do-at-home stuff have been going wild. Other resellers have mentioned a little slowdown. But during normal times we get them near the end of the month.
I fear not just for coin and metal sellers on Ebay, or Amazon, but for anyone anywhere. Its gonna be every platform and every item and digital good. Artists are about to get hit real hard.
Admittedly, we dont need my wife's unemployment and I've been loving my free government half ounce of gold a week for the past few months, plus what the state gives her that we dont need, so like 1.15 ozt. that I wont be buying every week now that the benefit is over.
Well then, enjoy the welfare check. Semper Fi!!
Yes, I'm very much enjoying being reimbursed for all my tax dollars bailing out faceless corporations and tax-free entities in 08 and again, um, now... and the airlines.. churches.. again soon.
Hopefully they will decide on floating us a $64K+ check so we can trade it for another kilo of gold. Man my grandparents got 5lb blocks of Velveeta, we get blocks of the metal of kings. These are great times we are living in my brothers and sisters. Welcome to the FSA!!!!
@derryb said:
PM spot prices are responding to dollar printing, not dollar spending.
We do 50-100 orders a day. Well, did, for the past 6 months. We are down to 3 to 10. Orders are from $10-50 not $50 to $500. It seems a very many number of people who are ordering are business addresses and we dont sell business items. We've been seeing a lot more credit cards.
Manual payments like cash and postal money order have dropped off the planet. We still get venmo, cashapp, bitcoin orders. But nothing like a month or three ago. Definitely slower than the end of 2019. This crunch has really only been the past 10-14 days. We almost went 12h without an order for the first time in 18 months.
The last ten days have dragged to a halt. Remember me in March complaining of 6 months straight of 18+ hour days? We did 4 more months of that. It's been black Friday every day since black Friday, until two weeks ago.
The dispensaries and liquor stores here just ground to a halt, too. They're stocked for the first time in months and I'm guessing it's not the supply chain being fixed.
So, I dont know if that's COMPLETELY true. People are definitely slowing down. We thought we were recession proof... well, I knew the truth it just sucks its finally here.
I'll clarify:
PM spot prices are responding to govt. dollar printing, not govt. dollar spending.
And yes, consumers are saving more and spending less. Good for reducing personal debt; not good for money velocity or sales tax revenues.
@Azurescens said:
Yeppers.. I feared for awhile that benefit was the only reason why e-stores with do-at-home stuff have been going wild. Other resellers have mentioned a little slowdown. But during normal times we get them near the end of the month.
I fear not just for coin and metal sellers on Ebay, or Amazon, but for anyone anywhere. Its gonna be every platform and every item and digital good. Artists are about to get hit real hard.
Admittedly, we dont need my wife's unemployment and I've been loving my free government half ounce of gold a week for the past few months, plus what the state gives her that we dont need, so like 1.15 ozt. that I wont be buying every week now that the benefit is over.
Well then, enjoy the welfare check. Semper Fi!!
Yes, I'm very much enjoying being reimbursed for all my tax dollars bailing out faceless corporations and tax-free entities in 08 and again, um, now... and the airlines.. churches.. again soon.
Hopefully they will decide on floating us a $64K+ check so we can trade it for another kilo of gold. Man my grandparents got 5lb blocks of Velveeta, we get the metal of kings. These are great times we are living in my brothers and sisters. Welcome to the FSA!!!!
The other day I was talking to someone who insulted preppers. He kept getting on my case. I've never been a doomer or some fanatic, just an eagle scout who likes to hike and be prepared. I dont know why so many suddenly have a problem with it, generally.
I also can't believe people have a problem with OTHER people stockpiling things to protect their families.
It made me think. Grandma died a few years ago with 6 months supplies and food in her cellar and a bunch of gold and silver. She would've been all set for this!
The trauma left behind with food items is some of the most deeply ingrained trauma people can have. People will be dealing with some very "unique" problems for a first world country in 2020.
She also kept a small dish for dimes and ferried silver dimes out of her job for 30 years. I guess because the mercury dimes used to be so worn you could get paid 10c but the thin wafer too thin to be accepted by the bus company and you're stuck with useless silver and walking home. I guess that stuck. And is also why I love dimes I guess, starting as a kid, from that dish.
There will be a lot of stuff that we will be dealing with for decades to come.
We've bought some time, but haven't taken advantage of it. it's hard to know if bullion, coins, cash or cans of beans is what you want to have, if this pandemic will not abate.
Tied to election. Biden wins gold and silver will continue to move up. Trump wins, metals will fall. If you think this virus will even be in the news mid-November, regardless of who wins, you’re very naive.
I thought the same to begin with, but then I remembered this little nugget called the "Patriot" Act. Never let a crisis go to waste. The virus will be hyped to drive various agendas as long as it is out there.
The situation in this country is nowhere as dire as the situation that faced Shackleton in 1917 but for many people in this country it will be the wake up call of a lifetime.
For many years, I kept a copy of Endurance(Shackleton) on my front seat & would read & reread a few pages. I probably read the book 10x.
Right now, I'm feeding neighbors-an older couple who didn't prepare properly & are afraid to leave the house because if they catch this thing-they're gone.
I don't see anything slowing down in SoCal but I do see tempers getting shorter.
The other day I was talking to someone who insulted preppers. He kept getting on my case. I've never been a doomer or some fanatic, just an eagle scout who likes to hike and be prepared. I dont know why so many suddenly have a problem with it, generally.
I also can't believe people have a problem with OTHER people stockpiling things to protect their families.
It made me think. Grandma died a few years ago with 6 months supplies and food in her cellar and a bunch of gold and silver. She would've been all set for this!
The trauma left behind with food items is some of the most deeply ingrained trauma people can have. People will be dealing with some very "unique" problems for a first world country in 2020.
She also kept a small dish for dimes and ferried silver dimes out of her job for 30 years. I guess because the mercury dimes used to be so worn you could get paid 10c but the thin wafer too thin to be accepted by the bus company and you're stuck with useless silver and walking home. I guess that stuck. And is also why I love dimes I guess, starting as a kid, from that dish.
There will be a lot of stuff that we will be dealing with for decades to come.
Rule #1 of prepping is to not tell everyone else you're prepping. Which door do you think they're going to be knocking on when they're hungry?
Agree, let all be all, that's what makes here interesting.
I'd rather hang out in a think tank than an echo chamber
Differing opinion, skills, knowledge, wit and wisdom is what makes the world go round. Otherwise we would just go in a straight line. Is it more fun to drive on a drag stip, or on a grand prix?
As far as the thread goes, do the charts show some, perhaps substantial, price resistance at the $25-26 level?
"Putting the pieces together and we have what looks likely to be a weaker greenback going forward, interest rates look likely to be suppressed near zero by central banks in the foreseeable future, and the global economic recovery from the coronavirus continues to look uncertain and unstable."
"Being assets that perform well when the dollar weakens and when interest rates remain subdued, combined with their safe haven status, precious metals like gold and silver look likely to trend higher from here."
Current premiums tell us hype is too high. There's as much physical silver for sale as there ever is (just look at eBay 1,000,000+ silver listings alone) and it's not exactly flying off the shelf. Once it does then you know we are in bubble territory.
I suppose it's a good thing to monitor the number of ebay listings as an indicator of activity level, but the premiums also provide a valuable insight as to the real market conditions and pricing.
_ Is it more fun to drive on a drag stip, or on a grand prix?_
Yes.
As far as the thread goes, do the charts show some, perhaps substantial, price resistance at the $25-26 level?
$26 silver is a pittance. A little bump on the chart.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
"The facility is no longer able to produce gold and silver coins at the same time, forcing it to choose one metal over the other, according to the document, which was presented to companies authorized to buy coins from the Mint last week."
We all know what higher demand and now a reduced supply should do to physical PM prices. What remains to be seen is "will market forces or external forces control the price of gold and silver?"
greed and fear are the two primary market forces. Which one prevails should depend on what the fundamentals reveal. However, if one is in a position to artificially control prices (futures?) HIS greed could easily erase the impact of fundamentals.
I mentioned here a couple months back when gold was still $1600/1700's and retracing the Sept 2011 monthly candlestick crash. Seemed like it was going to go all the way. That's called pay back. Didn't take long to put $1923 in the rear view mirror.
Silver has a Sept 2011 monthly range of $26-$43. You don't think it's going to follow gold and also retrace that entire candlestick with all the downside still left in GSR? The eventual target low for GSR is in the 40's. Even if gold went no higher from here.....the GSR normalizing to the 5 yr wedge lower projection takes silver to over $40. If gold continues well past $2100 expect silver to make a move to the upper $40's/oz.
The most massive GSR acceleration moves of the past 20 yrs have typically occurred in only 6-10 months. That's all it takes to whip back from an extreme. Current down move is only 4-1/2 months old. So 1-1/2 to 5 months left. Now that GSR (70.3) has moved below the Apex of the 5 yr sideways wedge (74.9), this brings the bottom half of the wedge into play (47-74). Wedge line primary target is 47 by March 2022. Current drop from 126 to 71 is approx 55 pts down. Whatever bounce occurs in the near future will probably be followed by another 55 point drop. A bounce to 83 support/resistance suggests GSR 28. Or a bounce to 96 support/resistance would be followed by a drop to GSR 41. Silver has lots left down the road. GSR had about a 9 year uptrend....when 5-6 yrs is normal. It's going take at least 30-34 months to find a lasting GSR bottom.
While I'm only looking at lower 40's for a final multi-year low, taking out the 2011 low of 31 is certainly within reason. And Cohodk's poo-pooing of the all time low GSR of 16 from 1980 just might get revisited or taken out down the current road. After all, the ratio of silver to gold in most of the world's financial trading, physical inventories, and even actual mining is all around 9-1.....not 16-1 to even 31-1....or the most ludicrous of all....the 126 peak from March. 9-1....been that way for a decade(s). That's the real "world" GSR.....9. Silver has a huge price x volume air gap in its trading from Sept 2011. Those crash drops retrace just as rapidly as they fell. Could take as little as one month to reach $43. For those fearful of silver's "fast" moves. Get ready to become more fearful.
The USDollar (USDX) has the same 5 yr wedge in play as GSR...they usually tend to mirror each other. That dollar wedge is pointing down to 80 by early 2021....and that would coincide with a typical 3 yr low in the USDX. It's due for one. USDX sitting right on the 9 yr up trend line. May find brief support here and bounce. Or just collapse and give GSR another boost. Either way USDX and GSR both in sync and look headed to the basement. Gold and silver like all of this.
Comments
I'm worried there are people who thought this was going to keep going uninterrupted.
March and April showed me people losing their houses and cars. May and June showed me people buying new cars, bbq's, junk for their kids. Some of my neighbors havent paid rent in months but were buying new stuff for their kids this whole time.
The type of stuff moving through Package facilities is all trampolines, pools, golf clubs, bikes, air conditioners and deep freezers. The employees who dont care if they're fired are complaining about it on social media. The amount of junk food and cakes and cookies and boxes of chips is outnumbering household goods or stuff like oatmeal, beans, rice products. Important medical supplies, medicine, etc is all being delayed.
I've thanked customers for their support and I have had a small number reply along the lines of "lol not like it's my money".
I mean... the people who overextended themselves are in for a rude awakening. Killing the UI benefit is gonna kill the economy.
wow
This is from the other day and these prices are already LONG gone.
This is wiiiiild.
Hopefully they will decide on floating us a $64K+ check so we can trade it for another kilo of gold. Man my grandparents got 5lb blocks of Velveeta, we get blocks of the metal of kings. These are great times we are living in my brothers and sisters. Welcome to the FSA!!!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I'll clarify:
PM spot prices are responding to govt. dollar printing, not govt. dollar spending.
And yes, consumers are saving more and spending less. Good for reducing personal debt; not good for money velocity or sales tax revenues.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
The other day I was talking to someone who insulted preppers. He kept getting on my case. I've never been a doomer or some fanatic, just an eagle scout who likes to hike and be prepared. I dont know why so many suddenly have a problem with it, generally.
I also can't believe people have a problem with OTHER people stockpiling things to protect their families.
It made me think. Grandma died a few years ago with 6 months supplies and food in her cellar and a bunch of gold and silver. She would've been all set for this!
The trauma left behind with food items is some of the most deeply ingrained trauma people can have. People will be dealing with some very "unique" problems for a first world country in 2020.
She also kept a small dish for dimes and ferried silver dimes out of her job for 30 years. I guess because the mercury dimes used to be so worn you could get paid 10c but the thin wafer too thin to be accepted by the bus company and you're stuck with useless silver and walking home. I guess that stuck. And is also why I love dimes I guess, starting as a kid, from that dish.
There will be a lot of stuff that we will be dealing with for decades to come.
A chilling harbinger for sure, Azurescens.
We've bought some time, but haven't taken advantage of it. it's hard to know if bullion, coins, cash or cans of beans is what you want to have, if this pandemic will not abate.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
I thought the same to begin with, but then I remembered this little nugget called the "Patriot" Act. Never let a crisis go to waste. The virus will be hyped to drive various agendas as long as it is out there.
It sounds like some are still working as well as collecting unemployment benefits they don't need, but that can't be right.
Admittedly, some of the recent posts are like some language I don't speak, so maybe i misunderstand.
Also, this thread will likely be locked soon and some might be banned.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The situation in this country is nowhere as dire as the situation that faced Shackleton in 1917 but for many people in this country it will be the wake up call of a lifetime.
For many years, I kept a copy of Endurance(Shackleton) on my front seat & would read & reread a few pages. I probably read the book 10x.
Right now, I'm feeding neighbors-an older couple who didn't prepare properly & are afraid to leave the house because if they catch this thing-they're gone.
I don't see anything slowing down in SoCal but I do see tempers getting shorter.
Rule #1 of prepping is to not tell everyone else you're prepping. Which door do you think they're going to be knocking on when they're hungry?
Rule #2, avoid doors where you know there are guns.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Rule number #3, pinch yourself and awaken from fantasy land. The world is not about to collapse. Rgds!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Rule #4, learn to realize when you are surrounded by a collapsing world. lol
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Time to layoff the zero hedge......and the sauce.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Rule # 5, let Derry be Derry.
Agree, let all be all, that's what makes here interesting.
I'd rather hang out in a think tank than an echo chamber
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Differing opinion, skills, knowledge, wit and wisdom is what makes the world go round. Otherwise we would just go in a straight line. Is it more fun to drive on a drag stip, or on a grand prix?
As far as the thread goes, do the charts show some, perhaps substantial, price resistance at the $25-26 level?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
there are those jet powered dragsters. that'd be fun.
charts? we will see if the resistance can influence massive money printing. (although I think others will print, too.)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fitch-cuts-us-credit-outlook-to-negative-on-covid-19-election-uncertainty-but-maintains-aaa-rating-2020-07-31
when it comes to charts...ask roadrunner....he's got cups & handles all over the place
he's head and shoulders above the rest?
"With all of our running and all of our cunning
If we couldn't laugh, we would all go insane" - Jimmy
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I don't see such resistance in the silver chart. Currently catching its breath.
From Seeking Alpha on July 28:
"Putting the pieces together and we have what looks likely to be a weaker greenback going forward, interest rates look likely to be suppressed near zero by central banks in the foreseeable future, and the global economic recovery from the coronavirus continues to look uncertain and unstable."
"Being assets that perform well when the dollar weakens and when interest rates remain subdued, combined with their safe haven status, precious metals like gold and silver look likely to trend higher from here."
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Current premiums tell us hype is too high. There's as much physical silver for sale as there ever is (just look at eBay 1,000,000+ silver listings alone) and it's not exactly flying off the shelf. Once it does then you know we are in bubble territory.
I suppose it's a good thing to monitor the number of ebay listings as an indicator of activity level, but the premiums also provide a valuable insight as to the real market conditions and pricing.
_ Is it more fun to drive on a drag stip, or on a grand prix?_
Yes.
As far as the thread goes, do the charts show some, perhaps substantial, price resistance at the $25-26 level?
$26 silver is a pittance. A little bump on the chart.
I knew it would happen.
and the latest curveball. . .
July 29, 2020: The US Mint has reduced it's bullion coin supply to Authroized Purchasers.
"The facility is no longer able to produce gold and silver coins at the same time, forcing it to choose one metal over the other, according to the document, which was presented to companies authorized to buy coins from the Mint last week."
We all know what higher demand and now a reduced supply should do to physical PM prices. What remains to be seen is "will market forces or external forces control the price of gold and silver?"
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
market forces and greed
greed and fear are the two primary market forces. Which one prevails should depend on what the fundamentals reveal. However, if one is in a position to artificially control prices (futures?) HIS greed could easily erase the impact of fundamentals.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
futures and what we pay on ebay are now two different things
another printing run at 11am ?
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Heads-up to derryb for forecasting $25 by e/o August.
At this rate, my recent BST purchase may be at spot by the time it arrives.
i'm just enjoying the best of both worlds right now, gold and silver both shooting up
Indeed. Diversity is good.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
I like both kinds of music; country and western
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Silver $25.07 up $1.64 right now.
$27 silver?
Over $28 today!
My YouTube Channel
Still over $28.00.
Due to arrive today and I've already made a profit. I sure didn't see it running up this fast.
Just picked my bar up from the mailbox and like you - I am up a couple bucks. The moves over the last three days are insane...
Oh ye of little faith. lol
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Wanna buy a few rolls of quarters but paranoid with these prices, yet also afraid I'll miss out and it goes to $40 or 50. LOL
Positive BST Transactions (buyers and sellers): wondercoin, blu62vette, BAJJERFAN, privatecoin, blu62vette, AlanLastufka, privatecoin
#1 1951 Bowman Los Angeles Rams Team Set
#2 1980 Topps Los Angeles Rams Team Set
#8 (and climbing) 1972 Topps Los Angeles Rams Team Set
I mentioned here a couple months back when gold was still $1600/1700's and retracing the Sept 2011 monthly candlestick crash. Seemed like it was going to go all the way. That's called pay back. Didn't take long to put $1923 in the rear view mirror.
Silver has a Sept 2011 monthly range of $26-$43. You don't think it's going to follow gold and also retrace that entire candlestick with all the downside still left in GSR? The eventual target low for GSR is in the 40's. Even if gold went no higher from here.....the GSR normalizing to the 5 yr wedge lower projection takes silver to over $40. If gold continues well past $2100 expect silver to make a move to the upper $40's/oz.
The most massive GSR acceleration moves of the past 20 yrs have typically occurred in only 6-10 months. That's all it takes to whip back from an extreme. Current down move is only 4-1/2 months old. So 1-1/2 to 5 months left. Now that GSR (70.3) has moved below the Apex of the 5 yr sideways wedge (74.9), this brings the bottom half of the wedge into play (47-74). Wedge line primary target is 47 by March 2022. Current drop from 126 to 71 is approx 55 pts down. Whatever bounce occurs in the near future will probably be followed by another 55 point drop. A bounce to 83 support/resistance suggests GSR 28. Or a bounce to 96 support/resistance would be followed by a drop to GSR 41. Silver has lots left down the road. GSR had about a 9 year uptrend....when 5-6 yrs is normal. It's going take at least 30-34 months to find a lasting GSR bottom.
While I'm only looking at lower 40's for a final multi-year low, taking out the 2011 low of 31 is certainly within reason. And Cohodk's poo-pooing of the all time low GSR of 16 from 1980 just might get revisited or taken out down the current road. After all, the ratio of silver to gold in most of the world's financial trading, physical inventories, and even actual mining is all around 9-1.....not 16-1 to even 31-1....or the most ludicrous of all....the 126 peak from March. 9-1....been that way for a decade(s). That's the real "world" GSR.....9. Silver has a huge price x volume air gap in its trading from Sept 2011. Those crash drops retrace just as rapidly as they fell. Could take as little as one month to reach $43. For those fearful of silver's "fast" moves. Get ready to become more fearful.
The USDollar (USDX) has the same 5 yr wedge in play as GSR...they usually tend to mirror each other. That dollar wedge is pointing down to 80 by early 2021....and that would coincide with a typical 3 yr low in the USDX. It's due for one. USDX sitting right on the 9 yr up trend line. May find brief support here and bounce. Or just collapse and give GSR another boost. Either way USDX and GSR both in sync and look headed to the basement. Gold and silver like all of this.
$29 ?
no, 35.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
The way it's been moving that looks totally possible by end of next week. I may hold off for another week to sell.
$29.50 silver?