The way too early “How much will the 1794 $1 SP66 realize Poll” from people with no skin in the game

Boosibri

Poll time from a bunch of folks with no skin in the game but lots of opinions to offer.

LoveTypeCoins

Greater than $10M

I believe that either there is a buyer lined up with a “promise” or the coin will not be sold if an acceptable price is not reached.

Boosibri

$8-$10M

@LoveTypeCoins said:
I believe that either there is a buyer lined up with a “promise” or the coin will not be sold if an acceptable price is not reached.

If there was a buyer lined up, why not a private treaty? TDN said in a previous thread that there were not large reserves but reasonable starting bids on three lots.

scubafuel

Agreed. The problem with selling a 10mm+ coin at auction is that you need two people to want to pay that. With a private treaty, you only need one.

Edited to add: unless it sells in the same style as last time!

ricko

Greater than $10M

I do not believe it will sell at a loss...not good business. Cheers, RickO

lkeigwin

Legend Auctions to sell most valuable U.S. coin in October

BryceM

I wouldn’t even begin to try to understand people’s thought processes or the market at this level. It would be pure speculation for me to try. I certainly hope there is no need to sell at a loss....... so I imagine it won’t, but true auctions can produce surprises.

That aside, at what dollar value does a private sale grow up and become a private treaty? Seems like a hundred dollar word for a five dollar concept...... flowery language that tends to show up in lot descriptions in auction catalogs.

messydesk

Greater than $10M

@BryceM said:
I wouldn’t even begin to try to understand people’s thought processes or the market at this level. It would be pure speculation for me to try. I certainly hope there is no need to sell at a loss....... so I imagine it won’t, but true auctions can produce surprises.

That aside, at what dollar value does a private sale grow up and become a private treaty? Seems like a hundred dollar word for a five dollar concept...... flowery language that tends to show up in lot descriptions in auction catalogs.

It's a similar threshold as "if you have to ask, you can't afford it." It's also when something becomes an Important Coin™. Of course, you can only know what that threshold is if you're in the correct Circle of Trust™.

I'll say this coin stays north of $10M. There's more to be lost than money by auctioning a high profile coin like this at a loss.

Broadstruck

Less than $8M

I feel the set would do better if sold in 2021...

As thinking that we will be able to attend shows again by October to do in hand lot viewing with the second wave of this virus upon us is overly optimistic.

asheland

$8-$10M

No way to really know, but that's quite a bit for a single coin. I hope it does well.

Coinosaurus

Shouldn't there be an option for "doesn't meet reserve?"

Weiss

I think it's important to note, despite the importance of this numismatic national treasure, its history, its provenance, and its unimaginable state of preservation, one attribute seems to be lost or overlooked by most collectors:

It's got a green bean.

1northcoin

$8-$10M

Assuming it sells at the auction, I am guessing the auction price will at least be ten million, but with the added buyer's premium I would not be surprised to see a new record. Have to believe there are at least a few with the means and desire to own such a prized possession with price being secondary.

WCC

$8-$10M

My recollection is that there was a large spread between the winning bid and the under bidder. In addition to my understanding of a generally weaker market since the last sale, this is a factor in my poll response. I presume the number of coin buyers who can "comfortably" afford this coin is more than I know, but still isn't many.

Also, at this price range, it will also potentially be competing against alternatives in other collectible and art segments. Not particularly relevant to only those who buy coins but it is for those who consider the possibility of a new "whale" buyer. Personally for this type of money, I'd try to buy a Russian Faberge Imperial Easter Egg, assuming there was even one available for sale. Some are possibly worth less than this coin..

cardinal

@scubafuel said:
Agreed. The problem with selling a 10mm+ coin at auction is that you need two people to want to pay that. With a private treaty, you only need one.

Edited to add: unless it sells in the same style as last time!

I know at least 2 die hard collectors out there with the means and interest in such a coin of the monumental prominence of this one!

cardinal

@WCC said:
My recollection is that there was a large spread between the winning bid and the under bidder. In addition to my understanding of a generally weaker market since the last sale, this is a factor in my poll response. I presume the number of coin buyers who can "comfortably" afford this coin is more than I know, but still isn't many.

In the January 2010 auction, the person that set the bidding limits for each of the bidders was very tight, and actually required bidders to not only show they had the finances to purchase the coin, they demanded an pre-auction down payment. The "house" was so cautionary on that coin, that even Dave Bowers was telling people he "hoped" the coin would sell at a new record for a silver dollar, beating the $4.14 million for the Childs' 1804 Dollar (graded PCGS PR68). The atmosphere at the auction was that each of the bidders recognized that the bidding limits would kick in, and that they would only get to bid one time that might be over their limit - but once that bid was said, it could not be taken back. I was at the auction and I could see the bidders and the look on there faces as they were testing who would jump in. Bruce timed it just right - submitting the winning bid just moments before the prior bid would have been hammered. The "large spread" confounded the opposing bidders, and they just couldn't get their heads around soon enough to enter a higher bid!

WCC

$8-$10M

@cardinal said:

@WCC said:
My recollection is that there was a large spread between the winning bid and the under bidder. In addition to my understanding of a generally weaker market since the last sale, this is a factor in my poll response. I presume the number of coin buyers who can "comfortably" afford this coin is more than I know, but still isn't many.

In the January 2010 auction, the person that set the bidding limits for each of the bidders was very tight, and actually required bidders to not only show they had the finances to purchase the coin, they demanded an pre-auction down payment. The "house" was so cautionary on that coin, that even Dave Bowers was telling people he "hoped" the coin would sell at a new record for a silver dollar, beating the $4.14 million for the Childs' 1804 Dollar (graded PCGS PR68). The atmosphere at the auction was that each of the bidders recognized that the bidding limits would kick in, and that they would only get to bid one time that might be over their limit - but once that bid was said, it could not be taken back. I was at the auction and I could see the bidders and the look on there faces as they were testing who would jump in. Bruce timed it just right - submitting the winning bid just moments before the prior bid would have been hammered. The "large spread" confounded the opposing bidders, and they just couldn't get their heads around soon enough to enter a higher bid!

Thanks, this was informative.

Baley

Less than $8M

The specimen 1794 dollar's die state is evidence that it is the earliest struck among the known surviving examples.

There is not any Proof that the coin was if fact the very 1st struck, as there could have been other earlier strike coins that did not survive.

As for value, the bidding was at under 6 million (about 7mm with juice) when the shock and awe jump bid of 8.525 million was executed, such that final sale would be at $10.016 million.

So my guess is it will realize about $7 million.

roadrunner

Greater than $10M

@1peter1223 said:

Wish nothing but the best .

The worldwide economies are likely to be sluggish for YEARS to come so if anyone had thoughts of selling a coin collection it probably matters little if done now or in 5 years .

Not really. And who can project out the world's financial, economic, and political climates 1 yr out....let alone 5 yrs out. That analogy certainly didn't work at the market peaks in 1990 or late 2008. Economies would be sluggish for 5 yrs after those dates. Your returns for top quality rare coins sold in 1990/2008 would have been usually been FAR ahead of what you got in the down years of 1995 or 2013. Coin prices dropped every year from 1990 to 1996. The earlier you sold in that window, the better you did.

messydesk

Greater than $10M

@Baley said:
The specimen 1794 dollar's die state is evidence that it is the earliest struck among the known surviving examples.

There is not any Proof that the coin was if fact the very 1st struck, as there could have been other earlier strike coins that did not survive.

As for value, the bidding was at under 6 million (about 7mm with juice) when the shock and awe jump bid of 8.525 million was executed, such that final sale would be at $10.016 million.

So my guess is it will realize about $7 million.

So will someone ready to write a check for $7 million give a jump bid of $8,526,000 so that the final sale price can be $10.018?

jonruns

$8-$10M

$8-$10M

The fortunes of the guys with deep pockets to afford a $10M coin weren't negatively impacted by this pandemic...in fact maybe their fortunes even grew (owners of Amazon, Wal-Mart etc.)

However I just don't think there is enough interest in $10M coins to spark a bidding war...

Boosibri

$8-$10M

@jonruns said:
$8-$10M

The fortunes of the guys with deep pockets to afford a $10M coin weren't negatively impacted by this pandemic...in fact maybe their fortunes even grew (owners of Amazon, Wal-Mart etc.)

However I just don't think there is enough interest in $10M coins to spark a bidding war...

While in general that may be true, if you were long oil or other sectors which were slammed or on steep margin where you were called and forced to sell. Lots of scenarios impacting individuals differently.

291fifth

Less than $8M

Buying a $10 million coin in this economic environment ...

Weiss

It's amazing that some people who literally collect money for a hobby have no concept of its worth, or the worth of the truly rich in this country.

The top 50 richest Americans have net worths measured in tens of billions of dollars. That's tens of thousands of millions. Dropping 10 of those tens of thousands doesn't even move the needle. We're talking .001 of net worth.

Real world: The equivalent for many of us would be buying a coin in the $500 to $1000 range. Except for them, their disposable income is orders of magnitude greater than ours, because their homes are paid for, their cars are paid for, every conceivable need is met. And their $500 or $1000 coin is arguably the single best coin in existence. The one. Would you hesitate for an instant if you could buy the very best coin in the world for $500 or $1000?

And that's just the richest Americans. This is the kind of item that would receive international interest.

So will it eclipse $10M? Without question. Eventually if not in October.

cardinal

@Baley said:
The specimen 1794 dollar's die state is evidence that it is the earliest struck among the known surviving examples.

There is not any Proof that the coin was if fact the very 1st struck, as there could have been other earlier strike coins that did not survive.

As for value, the bidding was at under 6 million (about 7mm with juice) when the shock and awe jump bid of 8.525 million was executed, such that final sale would be at $10.016 million.

So my guess is it will realize about $7 million.

Yes, the 1794 dollar's die state is evidence that it is the earliest struck among the known surviving examples, but it is the ONLY known specimen of the initial die state!!!

I am one of a small group of individual persons that have seen the coin out of its holder. About a dozen people were invited to see the coin raw at the World's Fair of Money in Pittsburgh 2004. The lighting in the room was not optimal, but good enough to see the sharpness of the strike. Then, at the ANA's World's Fair of Money in Los Angeles 2009, the coin was cracked out again for just a few parties - and I was there. The room where this happened was also being used by PCGS doing photography of submitted coins. Because of the photography work being done, the lighting was truly optimal! PCGS had set up a tent of black cloth, so that the surrounding lighting in the room would not interfere with the photography. Viewing the coin raw inside that tent, the fields of the coin beamed with DEEP cameo mirrors - on both sides. Undeniably, the coin was struck intentionally to be special! I have seen in person all of the known mint-state 1794 dollars, and no other of those possess cameo contrast. Yes, the 2 coins both graded PCGS 66+ are magnificent, but they have frosty cartwheel reflectivity, rather than mirror-like cameo contrast.

291fifth

Less than $8M

But those mega-billionaires have to be interested in tiny objects like coins. It seems to me that they would be more drawn to art by highly popular artists that are approved by the "eight New York critics"

Are there any coin critics out there?

Boosibri

$8-$10M

@Weiss said:
It's amazing that some people who literally collect money for a hobby have no concept of its worth, or the worth of the truly rich in this country.

The top 50 richest Americans have net worths measured in tens of billions of dollars. That's tens of thousands of millions. Dropping 10 of those tens of thousands doesn't even move the needle. We're talking .001 of net worth.

Real world: The equivalent for many of us would be buying a coin in the $500 to $1000 range. Except for them, their disposable income is orders of magnitude greater than ours, because their homes are paid for, their cars are paid for, every conceivable need is met. And their $500 or $1000 coin is arguably the single best coin in existence. The one. Would you hesitate for an instant if you could buy the very best coin in the world for $500 or $1000?

And that's just the richest Americans. This is the kind of item that would receive international interest.

So will it eclipse $10M? Without question. Eventually if not in October.

I think that would be true if Gates or Bezos or Ellison or Benioff or any other of those billionaire actually collected coins. If so, this phenomena would be already apparent in the market for world class rarities.

Weiss

@Boosibri said:

I think that would be true if Gates or Bezos or Ellison or Benioff or any other of those billionaire actually collected coins. If so, this phenomena would be already apparent in the market for world class rarities.

It's not just the Gateses, the Bezoses, or the Ellisons. You have to go at least 400 people out to even drop below $1B in net worth. And that's just Americans.

It's a phenomenon that has been discussed forever in our field. Why do many objects of modern art sell for 10 times what the greatest numismatic treasure sells for? I concede that argument. But a simple whim or fancy from a couple of these people in the world of the super rich will make it happen.

ernie11

Greater than $10M

Greater than $10M, but not by that much.

WCC

$8-$10M

Anything can happen. Somehow in this context, it just doesn't. These people have consistent interest in art yet almost never in coins.

I don't care for modern art but there is a qualitative difference between two segments where in one each is unique (art) and in another (coins), it's mass produced. Non-collectors don't care about the attributes that make practically any coin important to coin collectors. No reason to believe they care about date rarity, much less what goes into the quality considerations discussed on this forum or are so important to US collecting. To the non-collector, there is no substantive difference and it makes no sense to try to create equivalence when it should be apparent that's not how these people view it.

In the context of someone who isn't a coin collector, the example I gave of the Faberge eggs is a lot more interesting at a comparable or slightly higher cost.

yosclimber

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxkwRNIZgdY
The art world can be a funny place sometimes.

CoinJunkie

Greater than $10M

@291fifth said:
Are there any coin critics out there?

You mean other than the thousand or so on this forum...?

CoinJunkie

Greater than $10M

@WCC said:
Anything can happen. Somehow in this context, it just doesn't. These people have consistent interest in art yet almost never in coins.

I don't care for modern art but there is a qualitative difference between two segments where in one each is unique (art) and in another (coins), it's mass produced. Non-collectors don't care about the attributes that make practically any coin important to coin collectors. No reason to believe they care about date rarity, much less what goes into the quality considerations discussed on this forum or are so important to US collecting. To the non-collector, there is no substantive difference and it makes no sense to try to create equivalence when it should be apparent that's not how these people view it.

In the context of someone who isn't a coin collector, the example I gave of the Faberge eggs is a lot more interesting at a comparable or slightly higher cost.

While perhaps generally true, it isn't in the context of this coin.

Baley

Less than $8M

@291fifth said:
Buying a $10 million coin in this economic environment ...

Depends almost entirely, as others have eloquently stated, what fraction of the potential buyers' net worth $10m represents.... and how much they love coins relative to that number...

Many on here, myself included, have 5-10% of our liquid and semi liquid assets "invested" ("quotes" and small i are intentional 😉) in rare coins and common PM bullion .

WCC

$8-$10M

@CoinJunkie said:

@WCC said:
Anything can happen. Somehow in this context, it just doesn't. These people have consistent interest in art yet almost never in coins.

I don't care for modern art but there is a qualitative difference between two segments where in one each is unique (art) and in another (coins), it's mass produced. Non-collectors don't care about the attributes that make practically any coin important to coin collectors. No reason to believe they care about date rarity, much less what goes into the quality considerations discussed on this forum or are so important to US collecting. To the non-collector, there is no substantive difference and it makes no sense to try to create equivalence when it should be apparent that's not how these people view it.

In the context of someone who isn't a coin collector, the example I gave of the Faberge eggs is a lot more interesting at a comparable or slightly higher cost.

While perhaps generally true, it isn't in the context of this coin.

I'm not knocking this coin. I'm also not debating that a US collector won't pay a record price for it. Maybe or maybe not. I answered "no" but could be wrong.

I provided a brief explanation why it won't happen. What evidence is there that any non-collector will think of it in the same context as a US coin collector? There is no basis to use any supposed interest by non-collectors to answer the question asked by this poll. There isn't even any reason to believe that a non- US based collector will do so, not when their own coins are so much cheaper.

Coin collectors overwhelmingly have a higher preference and perception toward their own coinage versus all others. It is usually due to culture. The non-collector has even less interest.

CoinJunkie

Greater than $10M

@WCC said:

@CoinJunkie said:

@WCC said:
Anything can happen. Somehow in this context, it just doesn't. These people have consistent interest in art yet almost never in coins.

I don't care for modern art but there is a qualitative difference between two segments where in one each is unique (art) and in another (coins), it's mass produced. Non-collectors don't care about the attributes that make practically any coin important to coin collectors. No reason to believe they care about date rarity, much less what goes into the quality considerations discussed on this forum or are so important to US collecting. To the non-collector, there is no substantive difference and it makes no sense to try to create equivalence when it should be apparent that's not how these people view it.

In the context of someone who isn't a coin collector, the example I gave of the Faberge eggs is a lot more interesting at a comparable or slightly higher cost.

While perhaps generally true, it isn't in the context of this coin.

I'm not knocking this coin. I'm also not debating that a US collector won't pay a record price for it. Maybe or maybe not. I answered "no" but could be wrong.

I provided a brief explanation why it won't happen. What evidence is there that any non-collector will think of it in the same context as a US coin collector? There is no basis to use any supposed interest by non-collectors to answer the question asked by this poll. There isn't even any reason to believe that a non- US based collector will do so, not when their own coins are so much cheaper.

Coin collectors overwhelmingly have a higher preference and perception toward their own coinage versus all others. It is usually due to culture. The non-collector has even less interest.

You seem to be going off on tangents. I merely pointed out that one of your arguments wasn't really relevant when discussing this particular coin. Nothing more, nothing less. I have no idea who will be bidding or what the final price will likely be, although I voted higher than $10M on intuition. Cheers.

WCC

$8-$10M

@CoinJunkie said:

@WCC said:

@CoinJunkie said:

@WCC said:
Anything can happen. Somehow in this context, it just doesn't. These people have consistent interest in art yet almost never in coins.

I don't care for modern art but there is a qualitative difference between two segments where in one each is unique (art) and in another (coins), it's mass produced. Non-collectors don't care about the attributes that make practically any coin important to coin collectors. No reason to believe they care about date rarity, much less what goes into the quality considerations discussed on this forum or are so important to US collecting. To the non-collector, there is no substantive difference and it makes no sense to try to create equivalence when it should be apparent that's not how these people view it.

In the context of someone who isn't a coin collector, the example I gave of the Faberge eggs is a lot more interesting at a comparable or slightly higher cost.

While perhaps generally true, it isn't in the context of this coin.

I'm not knocking this coin. I'm also not debating that a US collector won't pay a record price for it. Maybe or maybe not. I answered "no" but could be wrong.

I provided a brief explanation why it won't happen. What evidence is there that any non-collector will think of it in the same context as a US coin collector? There is no basis to use any supposed interest by non-collectors to answer the question asked by this poll. There isn't even any reason to believe that a non- US based collector will do so, not when their own coins are so much cheaper.

Coin collectors overwhelmingly have a higher preference and perception toward their own coinage versus all others. It is usually due to culture. The non-collector has even less interest.

You seem to be going off on tangents. I merely pointed out that one of your arguments wasn't really relevant when discussing this particular coin. Nothing more, nothing less. I have no idea who will be bidding or what the final price will likely be, although I voted higher than $10M on intuition. Cheers.

Not going on a tangent, only explaining my contrary position. My argument is relevant for any "high priced" coin because no one except US collectors views US coinage like US collectors do.

MFeld

@WCC said:

@CoinJunkie said:

@WCC said:

@CoinJunkie said:

@WCC said:
Anything can happen. Somehow in this context, it just doesn't. These people have consistent interest in art yet almost never in coins.

I don't care for modern art but there is a qualitative difference between two segments where in one each is unique (art) and in another (coins), it's mass produced. Non-collectors don't care about the attributes that make practically any coin important to coin collectors. No reason to believe they care about date rarity, much less what goes into the quality considerations discussed on this forum or are so important to US collecting. To the non-collector, there is no substantive difference and it makes no sense to try to create equivalence when it should be apparent that's not how these people view it.

In the context of someone who isn't a coin collector, the example I gave of the Faberge eggs is a lot more interesting at a comparable or slightly higher cost.

While perhaps generally true, it isn't in the context of this coin.

I'm not knocking this coin. I'm also not debating that a US collector won't pay a record price for it. Maybe or maybe not. I answered "no" but could be wrong.

I provided a brief explanation why it won't happen. What evidence is there that any non-collector will think of it in the same context as a US coin collector? There is no basis to use any supposed interest by non-collectors to answer the question asked by this poll. There isn't even any reason to believe that a non- US based collector will do so, not when their own coins are so much cheaper.

Coin collectors overwhelmingly have a higher preference and perception toward their own coinage versus all others. It is usually due to culture. The non-collector has even less interest.

You seem to be going off on tangents. I merely pointed out that one of your arguments wasn't really relevant when discussing this particular coin. Nothing more, nothing less. I have no idea who will be bidding or what the final price will likely be, although I voted higher than $10M on intuition. Cheers.

Not going on a tangent, only explaining my contrary position. My argument is relevant for any "high priced" coin because no one except US collectors views US coinage like US collectors do.

There are a good number of foreign buyers of rare U.S. coins, such as Proof gold coins and Pan Pac $50’s.

Walkerfan

$8-$10M

@WCC said:

@cardinal said:

@WCC said:
My recollection is that there was a large spread between the winning bid and the under bidder. In addition to my understanding of a generally weaker market since the last sale, this is a factor in my poll response. I presume the number of coin buyers who can "comfortably" afford this coin is more than I know, but still isn't many.

In the January 2010 auction, the person that set the bidding limits for each of the bidders was very tight, and actually required bidders to not only show they had the finances to purchase the coin, they demanded an pre-auction down payment. The "house" was so cautionary on that coin, that even Dave Bowers was telling people he "hoped" the coin would sell at a new record for a silver dollar, beating the $4.14 million for the Childs' 1804 Dollar (graded PCGS PR68). The atmosphere at the auction was that each of the bidders recognized that the bidding limits would kick in, and that they would only get to bid one time that might be over their limit - but once that bid was said, it could not be taken back. I was at the auction and I could see the bidders and the look on there faces as they were testing who would jump in. Bruce timed it just right - submitting the winning bid just moments before the prior bid would have been hammered. The "large spread" confounded the opposing bidders, and they just couldn't get their heads around soon enough to enter a higher bid!

Thanks, this was informative.

Yes, it's VERY interesting to hear the thoughts of a previous owner and someone who was present at BOTH auctions. I just think that the market is too volatile, right now, though I have seen several strong prices hammered, in other areas. I certainly think that the coin has potential and wish to see it do well.

Boosibri

$8-$10M

Has there ever been another auction with a 1804 $1 where it is not the most talked about coin in the sale?

JBN

Greater than $10M

Quality.

Hydrant

Don't shoot me.......I'm only the piano player......and.....I could care less.

PerryHall

@Hydrant said:
Don't shoot me.......I'm only the piano player......and.....I could care less.

I think you meant "couldn't care less".

messydesk

Greater than $10M

@MFeld said:

There are a good number of foreign buyers of rare U.S. coins, such as Proof gold coins and Pan Pac $50’s.

Good number of foreign manufacturers, too.

roadrunner

Greater than $10M

@291fifth said:
Buying a $10 million coin in this economic environment ...

Even worse....how about buying or holding stocks in this current economic environment? Stocks are possibly into the 100 yr washout phase now. It may not be a pretty 10-13 years . These longer corrections are required every so often to reset things (1930's to early 40's, 1966-1982, 2000-2009, and maybe 2020-2033???). Coins from 1966-1989 were just what the doctor ordered....stocks were not. Who wants to be in stocks for a 10+ yr dead period? That's usually when "selected" rare coins and PMs seem to be better alternatives.

Of any $10 MILL US Coin the 1794 SP66 is what I'd want to own. It's special and unique. No amount of money can duplicate it. It was made at the founding of the nation....not in the 1800's or as a Fantasy coin. It's bigger than a $20 Double Eagle...which they didn't even start coining until 1849. I'll pass on 1804 $'s (except possibly the Child's Type 1), 1913 Lib nickels, 1885 Trade Dollars, etc. Make mine this 1794 SP66. It's sort of incredible it took so long for the hobby to understand what it really was....only in the past 20 yrs. When in the 1984 Amon Carter collection it was still overlooked by the majority of knowledgeable numismatists and dealers. Unlike so many other US rarities, this coin really does have some serious upside potential. If/when stocks have some serious faltering, watch for coins like this one to be the go-to alternative. Easy to store, easy to insure, easy to transport, easy to handle and show. Paintings and other larger art objects are much more subjective to value and quite difficult to "maintain." They don't have slabs or "certify" the condition/grade for the entire market. It's the epitome of buyer beware....and far more "potted plants" than in the upper stratosphere of the US Coin Market. $10-$12 MILL for the 1794 SP66.

Hydrant

@PerryHall said:

@Hydrant said:
Don't shoot me.......I'm only the piano player......and.....I could care less.

I think you meant "couldn't care less".

I like you Perry.....But as they say around these parts......." I didn't do nothing wrong." HILLBILLY HEAVEN!

msch1man

Greater than $10M

For many that have accumulated the means to be a serious player for this coin, it's likely this could be a "once in a lifetime" opportunity to own it. Given my interests (that seem to gravitate more and more to early coinage), if I were a whale that played in that end of the pool, I'd be e-mailing a banker's letter to Legend (or whatever you have to do to qualify for bidding) and would have the date circled on my calendar.

Wahoo554

Less than $8M

@cardinal said:

@WCC said:

In the January 2010 auction, the person that set the bidding limits for each of the bidders was very tight, and actually required bidders to not only show they had the finances to purchase the coin, they demanded an pre-auction down payment. The "house" was so cautionary on that coin, that even Dave Bowers was telling people he "hoped" the coin would sell at a new record for a silver dollar, beating the $4.14 million for the Childs' 1804 Dollar (graded PCGS PR68). The atmosphere at the auction was that each of the bidders recognized that the bidding limits would kick in, and that they would only get to bid one time that might be over their limit - but once that bid was said, it could not be taken back. I was at the auction and I could see the bidders and the look on there faces as they were testing who would jump in. Bruce timed it just right - submitting the winning bid just moments before the prior bid would have been hammered. The "large spread" confounded the opposing bidders, and they just couldn't get their heads around soon enough to enter a higher bid!

Very interesting account of the auction. That’s quite an aggressive bidding strategy. As far as I understand from the way the bidding transpired, it’s tough to know whether the gamble paid off. Perhaps the coin was purchased at a lower price than it would have fetched if other bidders were eased upwards? Perhaps it went for millions more than it would have otherwise closed at if the bidding continues at normal increments? I’m sure there are some in this forum that have deeper insight into what price some of the competing bidders would have been willing to go up to. I just watched a YouTube video of the auction for those who are interested: https://youtu.be/loypv9U0ZDc

pursuitofliberty

Greater than $10M

I voted earlier but didn't clarify. I think it hammers, with the juice, for over 10.M again.

I'm not sure it realizes over 10.M, but it I feel like it might.

It's a different pool than I swim in, but the reality to me is the historical significance, provenience and preservation of this piece makes it quite possibly the MOST important US coin in existence. At least within the Top 5. All my opinion of course.

It was off the market for 7 years. Before that, many years IIRC. Whoever buys it probably keeps it at least 7 to 10 years again, maybe longer. How many shots are you going to get if you have the desire to own it, and the means to back up that desire?

I would be surprised if it didn't pick up a winning bid of at least $9.m before the auction was done, and I am nearly certain that won't be from a jump bid.

BAJJERFAN

@Weiss said:

@Boosibri said:

I think that would be true if Gates or Bezos or Ellison or Benioff or any other of those billionaire actually collected coins. If so, this phenomena would be already apparent in the market for world class rarities.

It's not just the Gateses, the Bezoses, or the Ellisons. You have to go at least 400 people out to even drop below $1B in net worth. And that's just Americans.

It's a phenomenon that has been discussed forever in our field. Why do many objects of modern art sell for 10 times what the greatest numismatic treasure sells for? I concede that argument. But a simple whim or fancy from a couple of these people in the world of the super rich will make it happen.

Trash art is being kind for some of that stuff that some will pay $50 million+ for.