I’m excited for things to get back to normal. I spend my day treating patients with COVID. After this spring, which feels like it’s going on the the last 5 years, I’m anxious to take some time off, go on vacation, spend time around my family without worrying that I’m carrying germs. I want normalcy. I want to go to a coin show. I just don’t think it’ll be there by this summer.
The situation remains touch and go. That’s going to continue for a few months. Future predictions are very difficult. People are still getting sick but the community spread is way down from where it was. But as things open on a limited basis we have to see if there are additional surges of cases. Or if there are new hotspots of activity.
Overall community immunity is in most places still very low. Large conventions to me still seem for the near future like a bad idea.
It’s rare that we actually mean this when we say this frequently overused statement, but this outbreak really is “unprecedented”.
@QCCoinGuy said:
I am not going to let the virus infringe on my civil liberties. We could all die at any point (heart attack, car accident, plane crash, etc). If I want to take the risk of getting COVID-19 and dying, that's my problem. The news is just a bunch of elites trying to prevent me from exercising my constitutional right to do and say whatever I want.
Of course, I am kidding. The carelessness and selfishness of attending a coin show in August is beyond comprehension. There are plenty of ways to transact safely online, whether it's through eBay, auction houses, or trusted dealers with proper 21st century infrastructure. Take advantage.
Undoubtedly, the ANA is waiting for the city or venue to cancel, which is inevitable.
I bit hard on that and was already formulating a rebuttal as I was reading. Well played sir
m
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
>
The carelessness and selfishness of attending a coin show in August is beyond comprehension.
>
3 months from now all states will have various degrees of ‘reopening’ well underway. Some states may have already reopened to a degree and then locked down again amid spikes in Corona. And of course there will inevitably be spikes as people emerge from their homes.
Per a number of medical articles on the subject: When trying to account for the huge number of current suspected asymptomatic cases, the fatality rate for Corona likely currently falls somewhere between .3-.8%......or, 3-8 times as deadly as the flu. Put another way, when accounting for asymptomatic cases, it’s estimated that 99.2 - 99.7% of those infected with Corona survive.
When a Corona vaccine is developed it will work for the majority but not everyone, just like the flu vaccine does not 100% protect.
Corona is here to stay, just like the flu is here to stay. For the rest of our lives.
So at some point everyone will decide whether they’re venturing out, or not....now, 3 months from now, 3 years from now......
If the ANA show proceeds, and it’s all done legally, more power to them!....and I hope those that attend have a great show. 😎
Many contracts have Force Majeure clauses which allow either party to dissolve the contract in the event of an unforeseen catastrophe; an epidemic would be one.
The Philadelphia Mint: making coins since 1792. We make money by making money. Now in our 225th year thanks to no competition.
And just as an FYI, Coronavirus has been around for a long time. This 19th version just so happens to be a more contagious, more severe and a more deadly version. Indeed, this fall or next spring may be covid20.
This may have been addressed in another post but the college (Colorado College) suspended all summer programs and camps. Since the ANA is on the campus and utilizes their buildings for the seminar, they had no choice.
@PhillyJoe said:
Many contracts have Force Majeure clauses which allow either party to dissolve the contract in the event of an unforeseen catastrophe; an epidemic would be one.
This isn't an "unforeseen catastrophe".
They have all the notice/ prior knowledge of this virus that one can imagine.
One of the most popular posts on this forum is "enjoy coins as a hobby---never as an investment." If someone believes that and wants to avoid losing money on coins, cant see how it makes sense to risk your life traveling, staying overnight away from your home and then congregating with hundreds or thousands of others who have all traveled from all parts of the world.
I was looking forward to the ANA this year but i wont be attending. Also, my view of the ANA has gone down based upon the wording of their announcement.
@Gazes said:
One of the most popular posts on this forum is "enjoy coins as a hobby---never as an investment." If someone believes that and wants to avoid losing money on coins, cant see how it makes sense to risk your life traveling, staying overnight away from your home and then congregating with hundreds or thousands of others who have all traveled from all parts of the world.
I was looking forward to the ANA this year but i wont be attending. Also, my view of the ANA has gone down based upon the wording of their announcement.
Just remember, the ANA didn't word that announcement... just a couple of temporary representatives of the ANA...
Was on the fence about going to Pittsburgh for the ANA even before this pandemic... zero chance I'll be going now.
This is one of the best threads I've read on this forum in a long time. Insightful and intelligent arguments on all sides. It will certainly help guide my decision on whether or not to attend the convention. A side story that I'm following closely, that hasn't been discussed, is the stock market. I'm perplexed that the market is holding up like it is. Future P/E ratios are surely going to be sky high, right?. The severe drop in imports and consumer spending due to lack of supply and demand, uncertainty, and unemployment, leading to falling corporate profits, combined with increasing government and corporate debt, has to result in a big drop in stock prices, doesn't it? Or are we experiencing a perfect example of irrational exuberance? This market makes me feel like my economics degree was a waste of time and money.
If you've been following what's going on in the meat packing industry where employees are packed in like sardines and infection rates are high why would a coin show or other large gathering be much different?
@PhillyJoe said:
Many contracts have Force Majeure clauses which allow either party to dissolve the contract in the event of an unforeseen catastrophe; an epidemic would be one.
This isn't an "unforeseen catastrophe".
They have all the notice/ prior knowledge of this virus that one can imagine.
Pretty sure when the contract for this convention was signed 3 or 4 years ago, none of us had any knowledge of coronavirus.
The Philadelphia Mint: making coins since 1792. We make money by making money. Now in our 225th year thanks to no competition.
@Tom147 said:
And just as an FYI, Coronavirus has been around for a long time. This 19th version just so happens to be a more contagious, more severe and a more deadly version. Indeed, this fall or next spring may be covid20.
The '19' in COVID-19 refers to 2019, not the 19th version, from COronaVIrus Disease 2019
Thank you for your service as a paramedic.
Numismatist Ordinaire See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
@PhillyJoe said:
Many contracts have Force Majeure clauses which allow either party to dissolve the contract in the event of an unforeseen catastrophe; an epidemic would be one.
This isn't an "unforeseen catastrophe".
They have all the notice/ prior knowledge of this virus that one can imagine.
Pretty sure when the contract for this convention was signed 3 or 4 years ago, none of us had any knowledge of coronavirus.
If signed years ago the promoter can get out of the contract
@Tom147 said:
Agreed, but some jurisdictions are attributing all " suspect " deaths to Covid19. The numbers are skewed. How much ? Impossible to know. Have a close friend who's mother passed while a resident of a nursing home. Death certificate states Covid19. No symptoms, no test. Has to do with reimbursement from the Feds. We're not testing deceased here. New York state doing the same thing. ( I'm in Ohio )
And in some jurisdictions suspect deaths are deliberately NOT being called COVID-related because officials are trying to lowball the numbers for political or other reasons. My sister recently posted a story on Facebook about a convent near where we grew up (she knew one of the Sisters from when she was in High School) that had ELEVEN of the Sisters die in April, but only five of them were officially COVID-related because only those five were ever tested.
Is it possible that one or two of the other six were not COVID-related? Of course. One of the Sisters was 99. Is it likely that NONE of the other six were COVID-related. It is most UNlikely.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
@shorecoll said:
The safest place you'd be is on that plane. The average plane is now flying with 10 people and the air is constantly sterilized.
You WOULD be safer at that show than at the average WalMart.
People with underlying health conditions may be facing a long hard several years. People in nursing homes could be facing 2 years with no visitors, that makes me sad. I think the rest of society could be tiered/segmented by health level and age...it ain't fair, but Covid-19 don't care.
"Constantly sterilized?" What do you mean? Have they added some sort of equipment to sterilize the cabin air since the last time I flew? I used to fly a lot on business, and used to come down with a cold or something else after every third flight, on average.
One of the major airlines announced the other day that if you waned to sit next to an empty middle seat, you had to pay extra for the privilege. Part of the problem is that, as a rule, you do not know until you get to your seat on the plane how crowded the plane is or whether or not there is somebody sitting next to you.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
@Tom147 said:
And just as an FYI, Coronavirus has been around for a long time. This 19th version just so happens to be a more contagious, more severe and a more deadly version. Indeed, this fall or next spring may be covid20.
The '19' in COVID-19 refers to 2019, not the 19th version, from COronaVIrus Disease 2019
Thank you for your service as a paramedic.
THIS!!!!!!!
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
@shorecoll said:
The safest place you'd be is on that plane. The average plane is now flying with 10 people and the air is constantly sterilized.
You WOULD be safer at that show than at the average WalMart.
People with underlying health conditions may be facing a long hard several years. People in nursing homes could be facing 2 years with no visitors, that makes me sad. I think the rest of society could be tiered/segmented by health level and age...it ain't fair, but Covid-19 don't care.
I am on a aa plane right now
Portland to Phoenix
90% full
Go figure
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I must post a correction. I had been told by a medical director that Covid19 was the 19th strain of the coronavirus. I have since been informed that it was named because of the year 2019. Can't wait until our next meeting. No names but thank you for the correction sir.
@dbldie55 said:
If they let me know in time I will be there. I have to fly to the show, even though the plane may crash. I may get killed in the cab going from the airport to the convention center. I may not even make it to my local airport or get hit in the parking lot.
What good is life if you are afraid to live.
Sure all that could happen every day of the week. Now factor in a pandemic with no cure that we are going through today.
I will counter what good is life if you are afraid to live with..... live to fight another day. I’ll wait a little before I rush out to do hobby related pursuits. I want to live the next 30 years or so. I have a lot of plans.
If you go may the force be with you
m
If I go so be it.
I'm not going to live in a bubble for the rest of my short life.
I think the mods should end this thread, maybe?
This thread is pretty tame actually compared to others but it’s probably heading towards lock down/ quarantine.
I’ve volunteered to go into burning buildings so I’m not afraid of much. Coin shows don’t seem worth the risk/ reward to me. But as I said earlier we are all in this storm together but we are all on different boats. So I respect your POV
mark
Burning buildings?
So now some of these medical people have a problem with dealing with sick people?
Shouldn't these soon to be medical students (professionals) know what they are in for?
Firemen go into burning buildings ( yes they do, it's their job!). Policeman can get shot, stabbed and whatever.
What next?
Sorry Mark, I'm just fed up with the whole Corona thingy.
Cheers,
Ray
Some of these medical people may have a problem with sick people as they are still poorly supplied to treat em. Some of these medical people have a problem with whack job protesters yelling and screaming “hoax” at them after a 14 hour shift. Heck they should let the crazy protesters work on COVID patients for 12 hours to get a taste. They wouldn't make it 10 minutes. After 9 weeks I can see why medical workers are starting to break. Hopefully they stay strong. We need them
Thanks for adding that perspective. I have two sons who are medical doctors working in hospitals as well as a nurse daughter-in-law. Comparing the current threat to those previously encountered, one of them made the comment that what is different is that doctors are now dying.
"They" (at least two academic research labs) were working on a SARS vaccine during and shortly after the outbreak. Then funding stopped because "others" thought there was no longer a need for a SARS vaccine. It's not that "they" could not make a vaccine, but the research was stopped short ... probably because the "others" were** philatalists **and not numismatists (to keep it coin kosher).
That's one of my favorite words.
I wish I collected stamps, just so I could introduce myself to the ladies as an experienced philatalist.
They do realize that these shows cater to a skewed population pool that is enriched for above average to very much above average risk folks and that these highly susceptible folks will be, by definition of a coin show, packed together far more tightly than any social distancing safety precaution might accommodate and face-to-face time will be quite high and that all these susceptible folks engaging in high risk activities will be in an enclosed area over the course of several days and will have to get to the meeting place largely by air travel and will need to stay in hotels and typically eat out in crowds.
They realize that run-on sentence, right?
Yes........a large crowd of probably the very highest risk individuals on the planet all in close proximity and handling small pieces of plastic that others have also recently handled. You know, if I were LOOKING for a way to try and spread the Covid-19 virus to the highest risk population in the most expedient way possible, I'd hold a large indoor coin show and have everyone pass around small plastic items.
Your hobby is supposed to be your therapy, not the reason you need it.
@QCCoinGuy said:
I am not going to let the virus infringe on my civil liberties. We could all die at any point (heart attack, car accident, plane crash, etc). If I want to take the risk of getting COVID-19 and dying, that's my problem. The news is just a bunch of elites trying to prevent me from exercising my constitutional right to do and say whatever I want.
Of course, I am kidding. The carelessness and selfishness of attending a coin show in August is beyond comprehension. There are plenty of ways to transact safely online, whether it's through eBay, auction houses, or trusted dealers with proper 21st century infrastructure. Take advantage.
Undoubtedly, the ANA is waiting for the city or venue to cancel, which is inevitable.
I bit hard on that and was already formulating a rebuttal as I was reading. Well played sir
m
Me too Mark. I was really seeing RED....until I got to the 2nd paragraph.
I'm a primary care doc whose office remains open during this, although at much reduced volume. We have had patients die from Covid19, and I have had colleagues sickened by it.
Mark, TomB and Luxor pretty much sum up my assessment of the situation. The virus has an incubation period of 2 to 14 days so spread from asymptomatic people can be extensive. Genotyping of the virus shows that many outbreaks around the US are the result of infected people travelling from NY. What about people travelling from many different localities to Pittsburgh? There are so many opportunities for transmission during events like the ANA. We just don't know what the status will be in August, but I doubt we will have enough widespread testing and contact tracing in place by then to assure the public that large scale gatherings like coin shows will contain risk to an acceptable level.
At some point, the situation will improve, but we have a long way to go. If a patient asked me about attending a convention in a distant city this summer, I would advise against it.
( OTOH, if I knew that a dealer there would have a perfect 39-O RE half, I might grab an N95 and a face shield and go for it.
Kidding, of course. I think.)
I have my doubts, as to whether or not the show will actually happen, as the Convention Center may cancel it.
BUT, if I have to go to work, every day, because my job is essential to my company's corporate success, and I must go shopping, in large crowds, with people everywhere, then WHY should I be prevented from doing something that I truly ENJOY?
Things may be better by August. Cities all across the country are slowly returning to normalcy and August is still 3 months away, so I don't think it is completely beyond the realm of possibility.
Please forgive me, if I'm way off base.....
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
@QCCoinGuy said:
I am not going to let the virus infringe on my civil liberties. We could all die at any point (heart attack, car accident, plane crash, etc). If I want to take the risk of getting COVID-19 and dying, that's my problem. The news is just a bunch of elites trying to prevent me from exercising my constitutional right to do and say whatever I want.
Of course, I am kidding. The carelessness and selfishness of attending a coin show in August is beyond comprehension. There are plenty of ways to transact safely online, whether it's through eBay, auction houses, or trusted dealers with proper 21st century infrastructure. Take advantage.
Undoubtedly, the ANA is waiting for the city or venue to cancel, which is inevitable.
I bit hard on that and was already formulating a rebuttal as I was reading. Well played sir
m
Me too Mark. I was really seeing RED....until I got to the 2nd paragraph.
I'll make my decision in a couple months, assuming it hasn't already been made for me. By then the murky stew of information, hysteria, and outrage we have now will be replaced with a different murky stew of information, hysteria, and outrage.
@ms70 said:
Personally I don't think we'll see normal again until there's a vaccine.
And if there's no vaccine? They weren't able to make one for SARS (of which Covid-19 is one, SARS Cov-2), or MERS, or HIV.
"They" (at least two academic research labs) were working on a SARS vaccine during and shortly after the outbreak. Then funding stopped because "others" thought there was no longer a need for a SARS vaccine. It's not that "they" could not make a vaccine, but the research was stopped short ... probably because the "others" were philatalists and not numismatists (to keep it coin kosher).
I had a talk with my doctor today, and guess what popped up?
He was involved in a seminar, and the question was asked as to how many lives would be saved with all of the actions that have been done. The answer was ZERO. The area under the curve would be the same, but there would be no spikes that would overwhelm the health system.
Most people will be infected by SARS Cov-2 (the actual name of this virus), but for very few will it be lethal.
I think the stress and other underlying health issues are what kills. Most are dying of pneumonia started by flu-like symptoms.
@messydesk said:
I'll make my decision in a couple months, assuming it hasn't already been made for me. By then the murky stew of information, hysteria, and outrage we have now will be replaced with a different murky stew of information, hysteria, and outrage.
Yup. A few more weeks at this point doesn't bring much additional clarity. We have to get past the second wave at least. If that one is a dud, then, maybe, we have some closure.
I'm in healthcare too. In a couple years, the thoughts of coin shows will be like the "good ol' days." This is going to be worse than the Great Depression.
@QCCoinGuy said:
I am not going to let the virus infringe on my civil liberties. We could all die at any point (heart attack, car accident, plane crash, etc). If I want to take the risk of getting COVID-19 and dying, that's my problem. The news is just a bunch of elites trying to prevent me from exercising my constitutional right to do and say whatever I want.
Of course, I am kidding. The carelessness and selfishness of attending a coin show in August is beyond comprehension. There are plenty of ways to transact safely online, whether it's through eBay, auction houses, or trusted dealers with proper 21st century infrastructure. Take advantage.
Undoubtedly, the ANA is waiting for the city or venue to cancel, which is inevitable.
I bit hard on that and was already formulating a rebuttal as I was reading. Well played sir
m
Me too Mark. I was really seeing RED....until I got to the 2nd paragraph.
How can you and I be on the same page?
Be safe out there
We are probably alike in more ways than you realize.
@QCCoinGuy said:
I am not going to let the virus infringe on my civil liberties. We could all die at any point (heart attack, car accident, plane crash, etc). If I want to take the risk of getting COVID-19 and dying, that's my problem. The news is just a bunch of elites trying to prevent me from exercising my constitutional right to do and say whatever I want.
Of course, I am kidding. The carelessness and selfishness of attending a coin show in August is beyond comprehension. There are plenty of ways to transact safely online, whether it's through eBay, auction houses, or trusted dealers with proper 21st century infrastructure. Take advantage.
Undoubtedly, the ANA is waiting for the city or venue to cancel, which is inevitable.
I bit hard on that and was already formulating a rebuttal as I was reading. Well played sir
m
Me too Mark. I was really seeing RED....until I got to the 2nd paragraph.
How can you and I be on the same page?
Be safe out there
We are probably alike in more ways than you realize.
@ms70 said:
Personally I don't think we'll see normal again until there's a vaccine.
And if there's no vaccine? They weren't able to make one for SARS (of which Covid-19 is one, SARS Cov-2), or MERS, or HIV.
"They" (at least two academic research labs) were working on a SARS vaccine during and shortly after the outbreak. Then funding stopped because "others" thought there was no longer a need for a SARS vaccine. It's not that "they" could not make a vaccine, but the research was stopped short ... probably because the "others" were philatalists and not numismatists (to keep it coin kosher).
I had a talk with my doctor today, and guess what popped up?
He was involved in a seminar, and the question was asked as to how many lives would be saved with all of the actions that have been done. The answer was ZERO. The area under the curve would be the same, but there would be no spikes that would overwhelm the health system.
Most people will be infected by SARS Cov-2 (the actual name of this virus), but for very few will it be lethal.
I think the stress and other underlying health issues are what kills. Most are dying of pneumonia started by flu-like symptoms.
Excellent post. Of course, the number of lives lost as a result of the actions will be much, much greater than zero.
Collector and Researcher of Liberty Head Nickels. ANA LM-6053
@btcollects said:
Doesn't it look like they're trying to minimize cancellation fees and avoid giving refunds to dealers? As unwise as it seems, maybe it's a necessary financial move.
Which begs the question:What value does one put on a human life? On with the show for financial reasons or cater to health safety.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
I miss the shows as much as anybody. My wife and myself are both 72. I have diabetes and her auto immune system is shot. So the risk is just too much. Her health is way more important than any coin show.
I don't consider the lockdown we are in as not living.......I consider it just being safe and thinking of others...not just yourselves.
@btcollects said:
Doesn't it look like they're trying to minimize cancellation fees and avoid giving refunds to dealers? As unwise as it seems, maybe it's a necessary financial move.
Which begs the question:What value does one put on a human life? On with the show for financial reasons or cater to health safety.
No one is forcing anyone to go. If you are at risk, stay home.
But you have a valid question about the value of human life. What about all of those that will die due to the forced shutdown? Nobody seems to care about them. Like agent orange, some of the negative effects will not be known for years.
Collector and Researcher of Liberty Head Nickels. ANA LM-6053
@shorecoll said:
The safest place you'd be is on that plane. The average plane is now flying with 10 people and the air is constantly sterilized.
You WOULD be safer at that show than at the average WalMart.
People with underlying health conditions may be facing a long hard several years. People in nursing homes could be facing 2 years with no visitors, that makes me sad. I think the rest of society could be tiered/segmented by health level and age...it ain't fair, but Covid-19 don't care.
You may have a misconception about “ air being constantly sterilized” on a plane. That’s not true. It’s really bad air.
@Tom147 said:
As chief of our F.D. all my guys have PPE on AT ALL TIMES. NO EXCEPTIONS. As for the naysayers who refuse to wear a mask in public, that's your decision but stay away from me or we'll have a problem. Please everyone stay safe.
Recently a I stopped for fuel at a station and decided to run inside and get a bottle of water. I had my mask on and my hand sanitizer in my pocket. Low and behold there are two fire department paramedics in uniform and ambulance outside, neither had a mask on. Great way to lead by example.
@shorecoll said:
The safest place you'd be is on that plane. The average plane is now flying with 10 people and the air is constantly sterilized.
You WOULD be safer at that show than at the average WalMart.
People with underlying health conditions may be facing a long hard several years. People in nursing homes could be facing 2 years with no visitors, that makes me sad. I think the rest of society could be tiered/segmented by health level and age...it ain't fair, but Covid-19 don't care.
I am on a aa plane right now
Portland to Phoenix
90% full
Go figure
Yes, that was the one PDX-PHX flight scheduled for this month.
"Inspiration exists, but it has to find you working" Pablo Picasso
@BryceM said:
I find this thread to be fascinating. I don’t discount anyone’s opinion, but the consensus sentiment here indicates a level of fear that I have a hard time understanding. I’m not advocating throwing caution to the wind, but my goodness, we aren’t going to be living like this forever. We went from normal to cave-dwelling in about 2 weeks. Going the other direction will take longer, but the show is quite a ways off.
I’d be happy to go, happy to take a flight, happy to stay in a hotel, happy to mingle and interact with others, and I’d be reasonably comfortable doing it without a mask. I’d then be pretty comfortable coming back home and visiting my oldest relatives. But, what do I know - I’m just an MD in a small town in a low-COVID area.
I used to be terrified of rattlesnakes, and it almost kept me from enjoying the outdoors. Literally, I’d avoid the mountains and places they live. They can kill you, obviously and it is possible to step on one without knowing. Then I started looking at actual data, and the chance of getting bitten wasn’t zero, but it was acceptable to my rational brain. My emotional brain was scarcely convinced. Then I saw a few, realized that they just need a little space and respect, and carried on. Once I saw the thing, and dealt with it, the fear was replaced by understanding and respect. My colleagues hang around COVID + patients daily. I still interact with them, carefully, and expect to be fine.
Those of you waiting for a vaccine - it might happen, and I hope it does, but there is a REAL possibility it doesn’t happen at all, or that it happens with only partial effectiveness. The common cold is caused by other coronaviruses (and others) and you all know how successful we’ve been at eliminating that one.
As for the show - it probably won’t happen, but it could, safely, if people would allow it to. Unhealthy older people probably need to be careful, and yes, sadly that demographic hits our hobby squarely. So, we’ll see, but we will get past this. Brave souls will lead the way, almost all of them will be OK, and the rest will follow, eventually.
While I don't disagree with this, we really need to wait through the summer just to make sure. Most universities are going to go online this Fall - they don't want to, but there is viable concern about a second wave, anything with congregating people this summer, is too soon and maybe even this fall. You know as an MD just how bad it is for a small portion of the people that get it, just look at the death count. ANA should think about this aspect and the financial aspect as well.
There is a difference between rattlesnakes and Covid-19. A rattlesnake gives you a warning if you get too close - as one did to my wife two days ago on a walk near our house (5-footer western diamondback). CV-19 does not have a warning system for humans.......
Comments
I’m excited for things to get back to normal. I spend my day treating patients with COVID. After this spring, which feels like it’s going on the the last 5 years, I’m anxious to take some time off, go on vacation, spend time around my family without worrying that I’m carrying germs. I want normalcy. I want to go to a coin show. I just don’t think it’ll be there by this summer.
The situation remains touch and go. That’s going to continue for a few months. Future predictions are very difficult. People are still getting sick but the community spread is way down from where it was. But as things open on a limited basis we have to see if there are additional surges of cases. Or if there are new hotspots of activity.
Overall community immunity is in most places still very low. Large conventions to me still seem for the near future like a bad idea.
It’s rare that we actually mean this when we say this frequently overused statement, but this outbreak really is “unprecedented”.
I bit hard on that and was already formulating a rebuttal as I was reading. Well played sir
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
>
The carelessness and selfishness of attending a coin show in August is beyond comprehension.
>
3 months from now all states will have various degrees of ‘reopening’ well underway. Some states may have already reopened to a degree and then locked down again amid spikes in Corona. And of course there will inevitably be spikes as people emerge from their homes.
Per a number of medical articles on the subject: When trying to account for the huge number of current suspected asymptomatic cases, the fatality rate for Corona likely currently falls somewhere between .3-.8%......or, 3-8 times as deadly as the flu. Put another way, when accounting for asymptomatic cases, it’s estimated that 99.2 - 99.7% of those infected with Corona survive.
When a Corona vaccine is developed it will work for the majority but not everyone, just like the flu vaccine does not 100% protect.
Corona is here to stay, just like the flu is here to stay. For the rest of our lives.
So at some point everyone will decide whether they’re venturing out, or not....now, 3 months from now, 3 years from now......
If the ANA show proceeds, and it’s all done legally, more power to them!....and I hope those that attend have a great show. 😎
Many contracts have Force Majeure clauses which allow either party to dissolve the contract in the event of an unforeseen catastrophe; an epidemic would be one.
And just as an FYI, Coronavirus has been around for a long time. This 19th version just so happens to be a more contagious, more severe and a more deadly version. Indeed, this fall or next spring may be covid20.
This may have been addressed in another post but the college (Colorado College) suspended all summer programs and camps. Since the ANA is on the campus and utilizes their buildings for the seminar, they had no choice.
Kenny
I invite you to visit my numismatic eBay store https://ebay.com/str/numismaticswithkenny
This isn't an "unforeseen catastrophe".
They have all the notice/ prior knowledge of this virus that one can imagine.
One of the most popular posts on this forum is "enjoy coins as a hobby---never as an investment." If someone believes that and wants to avoid losing money on coins, cant see how it makes sense to risk your life traveling, staying overnight away from your home and then congregating with hundreds or thousands of others who have all traveled from all parts of the world.
I was looking forward to the ANA this year but i wont be attending. Also, my view of the ANA has gone down based upon the wording of their announcement.
Just remember, the ANA didn't word that announcement... just a couple of temporary representatives of the ANA...
Was on the fence about going to Pittsburgh for the ANA even before this pandemic... zero chance I'll be going now.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
This is one of the best threads I've read on this forum in a long time. Insightful and intelligent arguments on all sides. It will certainly help guide my decision on whether or not to attend the convention. A side story that I'm following closely, that hasn't been discussed, is the stock market. I'm perplexed that the market is holding up like it is. Future P/E ratios are surely going to be sky high, right?. The severe drop in imports and consumer spending due to lack of supply and demand, uncertainty, and unemployment, leading to falling corporate profits, combined with increasing government and corporate debt, has to result in a big drop in stock prices, doesn't it? Or are we experiencing a perfect example of irrational exuberance? This market makes me feel like my economics degree was a waste of time and money.
If you've been following what's going on in the meat packing industry where employees are packed in like sardines and infection rates are high why would a coin show or other large gathering be much different?
Pretty sure when the contract for this convention was signed 3 or 4 years ago, none of us had any knowledge of coronavirus.
The '19' in COVID-19 refers to 2019, not the 19th version, from COronaVIrus Disease 2019
Thank you for your service as a paramedic.
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
In the history of the market, you’re the first to ever feel this way.
If signed years ago the promoter can get out of the contract
It is now an undisputed FORESEEN consequence.
And in some jurisdictions suspect deaths are deliberately NOT being called COVID-related because officials are trying to lowball the numbers for political or other reasons. My sister recently posted a story on Facebook about a convent near where we grew up (she knew one of the Sisters from when she was in High School) that had ELEVEN of the Sisters die in April, but only five of them were officially COVID-related because only those five were ever tested.
Is it possible that one or two of the other six were not COVID-related? Of course. One of the Sisters was 99. Is it likely that NONE of the other six were COVID-related. It is most UNlikely.
"Constantly sterilized?" What do you mean? Have they added some sort of equipment to sterilize the cabin air since the last time I flew? I used to fly a lot on business, and used to come down with a cold or something else after every third flight, on average.
One of the major airlines announced the other day that if you waned to sit next to an empty middle seat, you had to pay extra for the privilege. Part of the problem is that, as a rule, you do not know until you get to your seat on the plane how crowded the plane is or whether or not there is somebody sitting next to you.
THIS!!!!!!!
I am on a aa plane right now
Portland to Phoenix
90% full
Go figure
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I must post a correction. I had been told by a medical director that Covid19 was the 19th strain of the coronavirus. I have since been informed that it was named because of the year 2019. Can't wait until our next meeting. No names but thank you for the correction sir.
Capt. As for the numbers, I agree 100%. With limited testing, no way to tell who did or didn't pass on from Covid19. Something we'll never know.
I learn alot on this forum. Thank you gentleman.
Thanks for adding that perspective. I have two sons who are medical doctors working in hospitals as well as a nurse daughter-in-law. Comparing the current threat to those previously encountered, one of them made the comment that what is different is that doctors are now dying.
To put myself at risk for a coin show clear across the country is not an option.
For those who say the show must go on, enjoy yourself.
If it's held; I will be there.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
I've missed enough shows this year due to this damned virus.
I'm not missing the ANA, unless I have to..
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
That's one of my favorite words.
I wish I collected stamps, just so I could introduce myself to the ladies as an experienced philatalist.
Damn the torpedoes; FULL SPEED AHEAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(Admiral David Farragut)
Steve
Yes........a large crowd of probably the very highest risk individuals on the planet all in close proximity and handling small pieces of plastic that others have also recently handled. You know, if I were LOOKING for a way to try and spread the Covid-19 virus to the highest risk population in the most expedient way possible, I'd hold a large indoor coin show and have everyone pass around small plastic items.
Your hobby is supposed to be your therapy, not the reason you need it.
Me too Mark. I was really seeing RED....until I got to the 2nd paragraph.
I'm a primary care doc whose office remains open during this, although at much reduced volume. We have had patients die from Covid19, and I have had colleagues sickened by it.
Mark, TomB and Luxor pretty much sum up my assessment of the situation. The virus has an incubation period of 2 to 14 days so spread from asymptomatic people can be extensive. Genotyping of the virus shows that many outbreaks around the US are the result of infected people travelling from NY. What about people travelling from many different localities to Pittsburgh? There are so many opportunities for transmission during events like the ANA. We just don't know what the status will be in August, but I doubt we will have enough widespread testing and contact tracing in place by then to assure the public that large scale gatherings like coin shows will contain risk to an acceptable level.
At some point, the situation will improve, but we have a long way to go. If a patient asked me about attending a convention in a distant city this summer, I would advise against it.
( OTOH, if I knew that a dealer there would have a perfect 39-O RE half, I might grab an N95 and a face shield and go for it.
Kidding, of course. I think.)
I have my doubts, as to whether or not the show will actually happen, as the Convention Center may cancel it.
BUT, if I have to go to work, every day, because my job is essential to my company's corporate success, and I must go shopping, in large crowds, with people everywhere, then WHY should I be prevented from doing something that I truly ENJOY?
Things may be better by August. Cities all across the country are slowly returning to normalcy and August is still 3 months away, so I don't think it is completely beyond the realm of possibility.
Please forgive me, if I'm way off base.....
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
How can you and I be on the same page?
Be safe out there
The show could be very hazardous to older coin collectors.
Anyone over 80 shouldn't even be shopping for groceries, let alone go to a coin show.
I'll make my decision in a couple months, assuming it hasn't already been made for me. By then the murky stew of information, hysteria, and outrage we have now will be replaced with a different murky stew of information, hysteria, and outrage.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
I had a talk with my doctor today, and guess what popped up?
He was involved in a seminar, and the question was asked as to how many lives would be saved with all of the actions that have been done. The answer was ZERO. The area under the curve would be the same, but there would be no spikes that would overwhelm the health system.
Most people will be infected by SARS Cov-2 (the actual name of this virus), but for very few will it be lethal.
I think the stress and other underlying health issues are what kills. Most are dying of pneumonia started by flu-like symptoms.
Yup. A few more weeks at this point doesn't bring much additional clarity. We have to get past the second wave at least. If that one is a dud, then, maybe, we have some closure.
I'm in healthcare too. In a couple years, the thoughts of coin shows will be like the "good ol' days." This is going to be worse than the Great Depression.
We are probably alike in more ways than you realize.
I agree brother.
Excellent post. Of course, the number of lives lost as a result of the actions will be much, much greater than zero.
Which begs the question:What value does one put on a human life? On with the show for financial reasons or cater to health safety.
A microcosm for opening up the economy or staying shut down to protect those endangered?
Lance.
I miss the shows as much as anybody. My wife and myself are both 72. I have diabetes and her auto immune system is shot. So the risk is just too much. Her health is way more important than any coin show.
I don't consider the lockdown we are in as not living.......I consider it just being safe and thinking of others...not just yourselves.
Be safe everyone!
No one is forcing anyone to go. If you are at risk, stay home.
But you have a valid question about the value of human life. What about all of those that will die due to the forced shutdown? Nobody seems to care about them. Like agent orange, some of the negative effects will not be known for years.
You may have a misconception about “ air being constantly sterilized” on a plane. That’s not true. It’s really bad air.
Recently a I stopped for fuel at a station and decided to run inside and get a bottle of water. I had my mask on and my hand sanitizer in my pocket. Low and behold there are two fire department paramedics in uniform and ambulance outside, neither had a mask on. Great way to lead by example.
Yes, that was the one PDX-PHX flight scheduled for this month.
"Inspiration exists, but it has to find you working" Pablo Picasso
While I don't disagree with this, we really need to wait through the summer just to make sure. Most universities are going to go online this Fall - they don't want to, but there is viable concern about a second wave, anything with congregating people this summer, is too soon and maybe even this fall. You know as an MD just how bad it is for a small portion of the people that get it, just look at the death count. ANA should think about this aspect and the financial aspect as well.
There is a difference between rattlesnakes and Covid-19. A rattlesnake gives you a warning if you get too close - as one did to my wife two days ago on a walk near our house (5-footer western diamondback). CV-19 does not have a warning system for humans.......
Best, SH