Dustiinspeakes, I've been working on my hof collection since 2009. You'll have peaks and valleys. Stick with your genre. Long term you'll do great. The debate is what will the hobby look like in 10, 20 years if the next generation doesn't get involved
Edit: my humble opinion, the griffey will probably settle back down in a few months to a $800-$1000 baseline
I don’t think @dustinspeaks is completely wrong about what he is saying and neither are the guys on the other side. The variables are actual submission and attaining a grade of PSA 10.
With respect to the former, no one has mentioned that PSA isn’t the only game in town anymore. While we’re all here because we love cards (and for many, it’s PSA cards), there’s plenty of 10s in Beckett (Pristine) and SGC (100/10) holders already that may stay there forever. Not to mention those in PSA 9, SGC 98/9+ and 9, Beckett 9.5 and 9 that could be successfully reviewed to PSA 10. I don’t mean every card would bump or cross but obviously some could. While not super common, the success stories are out there. This is material already graded, remember, so a grader somewhere called it perfect or almost perfect. I know some modern collectors who prefer other companies and have all Beckett slabs for modern and will keep it that way as long as they have it. Those cards may never make it to Newport Beach.
As for attaining PSA 10, that conversation has a tendency to devolve quickly. Suffice it to say, it’s tough to get them. Period.
And I think that’s an important distinction, too. There are card collectors and then there are graded card collectors. It’s two different animals and that should really be acknowledged, also. I have heard many people opine that all the ‘good vintage material is already graded’ and yet “new” items come to light seemingly all the time from a century ago; new high grade T206 Ty Cobb back Cobb’s, new high grade 52 Mantle’s and most recently the ‘Uncle Jimmy’ find. Some dismiss these finds as the work of charlatans but I think those people underestimate the number of people out there who collect or collected baseball cards raw, basically unaware of the subculture of baseball card grading that has emerged over the last 30 years.
I think there's another aspect to this that we're not talking about. I've been waxing poetic about what would happen when the day came that the hobby boom kids returned to the hobby as adults with disposable income. After all, that was certainly the largest amount of childhood collectors the hobby has ever seen over one period of time.
I think COVID shot some adrenaline into the natural order of that process. An entire country of guys stuck at home with zero sports to watch and they're climbing up the walls. Childhood collections are being dug out, nostalgia is an excellent medication.
What I think we may all have to do -- and what I think is going to be the hardest circle to square for many older collectors -- is re-calibrate what we consider to be "low pop." Obviously, if a card only has four examples graded it's safe to say that it is low pop. But doesn't demand also determine whether a card is low pop or not, as well?
I don't think there's any kind of definition of low pop that states there is a firm number that the card must be under in order to be considered low pop. If there are 10 graded copies and no one wants one, what does the pop matter? If there are 1,500 copies and there are 10,000 motivated buyers, we may have a new definition of what "low pop" means.
I already know some of the responses I'm going to get -- "1,500 can never be considered "low pop." What's the number then? What determines what that number should be? If there's a tectonic shift in the amount of demand we have in the market, shouldn't that effect the way we view the supply?
As someone who has never sent in a graded card I can't speak to everything being discussed. I have read quite a few of the threads of guys trying to assemble PSA 10 grades of 80's sets and have used that information to assemble my own non-graded sets from packs.
What I've been working on since 2013 is 1990 Topps. I've opened around 65 boxes of 1990 Topps, mostly wax. That's more than 3 cases. 2340 packs, 37,000 cards, giving roughly 47 copies of each card. In each pack, almost universally the card next to the gum is ruined. Sometimes the second one in also has a slight stain. The card on the other side sometimes has a wax stain. Of all the other cards, I've pulled around 600 that I penny sleeved as potential 9s or 10s. Were I to submit I would be surprised to have more than 20% of them grade as 10s. I've also not found a single Frank Thomas or Ken Griffey Jr. from a pack that I would send in for grading. Not one. That should give you some idea of the quality of cards sitting in packs.
I also agree with Arthur on the quality of existing collections sitting out there. As a kid I started in with penny sleeves and top loaders around 1993-1994. Before that the only protection any of my cards got were binders. Of all the mid 90's cards that I can distinctly remember pulling and depositing in top loaders, there are less than 10 that I would even consider submitting.
@emar said:
Dustiinspeakes, I've been working on my hof collection since 2009. You'll have peaks and valleys. Stick with your genre. Long term you'll do great. The debate is what will the hobby look like in 10, 20 years if the next generation doesn't get involved
Edit: my humble opinion, the griffey will probably settle back down in a few months to a $800-$1000 baseline
Today, cards are treated like stocks. Many entering the hobby today never collected as a kid. That's the way I see the new blood continuing. Then you add in the gobs from the 80's and 90's coming back and you have one strong hobby. But this hasn't been a kids hobby in a long long time and it probably never will be again. It just won't. Those days are long gone. Evolution.
I think this is a great thread. I first bought baseball card packs in 1980. So this is my wheelhouse. I have always been a collector and have only left the hobby for brief sabbaticals (college and early married life). I grade a lot of modern and ultra modern stuff but my biggest thrill is finding something from my collecting wheelhouse to submit. Last November I was doing a show in DFW another dealer had an 84 Fleer Update set. I asked him if I could look at the cards before buying since they were not factory sealed. I did. He told me his price. I could not give him the cash fast enough. I submitted the 3 key rcs the next week. Then sat on pins and needles until March when I finally got grades back. I knew what I thought the cards should be but even though I have subbed 1000s and 1000s of cards my opinion would not be the final authority.
Here are the results.
My son who is 18 and I collect together, so I use him as a second set of eyes. He thought the Gooden was the weakest. I thought the Clemens at first. We both agreed the Puckett was perfect. All could have been 10s in our opinion.
All this to say 10s are never a done deal until the cards are back in hand. That is why there is a huge disparity in 9 and 10 pricing.
There is a guy on Twitter I comment with sometimes who bought a raw Jordan at the National in 2018 for a grand. Spent $900 to get it graded and nailed a 10.
I will never understand how people in the business of selling cards do not try and maximize their value and leave so much money on the table.
Great score I remember when you posted this. My prized card for years was the 84 Clemens. One of the coolest sets ever!
@Dpeck100 said:
There is a guy on Twitter I comment with sometimes who bought a raw Jordan at the National in 2018 for a grand. Spent $900 to get it graded and nailed a 10.
I will never understand how people in the business of selling cards do not try and maximize their value and leave so much money on the table.
Great score I remember when you posted this. My prized card for years was the 84 Clemens. One of the coolest sets ever!
Agree completely but I am glad they don’t. Seller had several 84 USFL sets as well but were all sealed. If I did not have the key cards out of those I would have jumped on them as well.
@Dpeck100 said:
There is a guy on Twitter I comment with sometimes who bought a raw Jordan at the National in 2018 for a grand. Spent $900 to get it graded and nailed a 10.
I will never understand how people in the business of selling cards do not try and maximize their value and leave so much money on the table.
Great score I remember when you posted this. My prized card for years was the 84 Clemens. One of the coolest sets ever!
Agree completely but I am glad they don’t. Seller had several 84 USFL sets as well but were all sealed. If I did not have the key cards out of those I would have jumped on them as well.
No doubt.
If a casual collector either doesn't want to be bothered going through the grading process or simply isn't informed I totally get it but man if you are making a living on the spread of your cards make the spread!
Card grading is literally the most explosive value creator I have ever encountered in my life. It obviously isn't exciting that rates to grade are going up but no one is stopping because the small investment can pay off dramatically. It honestly still boggles my mind but it is what it is.
@Dpeck100 said:
There is a guy on Twitter I comment with sometimes who bought a raw Jordan at the National in 2018 for a grand. Spent $900 to get it graded and nailed a 10.
I will never understand how people in the business of selling cards do not try and maximize their value and leave so much money on the table.
Great score I remember when you posted this. My prized card for years was the 84 Clemens. One of the coolest sets ever!
Agree completely but I am glad they don’t. Seller had several 84 USFL sets as well but were all sealed. If I did not have the key cards out of those I would have jumped on them as well.
No doubt.
If a casual collector either doesn't want to be bothered going through the grading process or simply isn't informed I totally get it but man if you are making a living on the spread of your cards make the spread!
Card grading is literally the most explosive value creator I have ever encountered in my life. It obviously isn't exciting that rates to grade are going up but no one is stopping because the small investment can pay off dramatically. It honestly still boggles my mind but it is what it is.
That’s exactly why I have over 7k in grading fees at PSA now or in transit to them. Most bought from dealers who are too lazy to maximize the money they can make. Simply said they are not excellent at what they do. There will be tons of misses in the swings I take but as a rule it always pays off. The other thing is I am not primarily grading these to sell I am grading them to keep and sell primarily to recoup fees and load up for the next round to submit.
@Dpeck100 said:
There is a guy on Twitter I comment with sometimes who bought a raw Jordan at the National in 2018 for a grand. Spent $900 to get it graded and nailed a 10.
I will never understand how people in the business of selling cards do not try and maximize their value and leave so much money on the table.
Great score I remember when you posted this. My prized card for years was the 84 Clemens. One of the coolest sets ever!
Agree completely but I am glad they don’t. Seller had several 84 USFL sets as well but were all sealed. If I did not have the key cards out of those I would have jumped on them as well.
No doubt.
If a casual collector either doesn't want to be bothered going through the grading process or simply isn't informed I totally get it but man if you are making a living on the spread of your cards make the spread!
Card grading is literally the most explosive value creator I have ever encountered in my life. It obviously isn't exciting that rates to grade are going up but no one is stopping because the small investment can pay off dramatically. It honestly still boggles my mind but it is what it is.
That’s exactly why I have over 7k in grading fees at PSA now or in transit to them. Most bought from dealers who are too lazy to maximize the money they can make. Simply said they are not excellent at what they do. There will be tons of misses in the swings I take but as a rule it always pays off. The other thing is I am not primarily grading these to sell I am grading them to keep and sell primarily to recoup fees and load up for the next round to submit.
Pretty sure I'm understanding today's market condition.
I'm sitting around, bored, thinking about cards, thinking about the 80s.
So I hop on the computer, after promising myself (about 5 purchases ago) to give it a rest awhile.
I wanna give a shout out to 4SC. Their inventory is always stellar, with a lot of turnover. Never had a bad experience. Always happy with card quality. Scans are very detailed.
Be patient, they're on about a 2 week backlog with deliveries due to current situation.
Wow. The boredom is worse than I suspected.
Watched a random auction close. 90 bowman not tiffany Bernie Williams.
20 watchers, was a $20 card 2 weeks ago:
$182.02
@emar said:
Wow. The boredom is worse than I suspected.
Watched a random auction close. 90 bowman not tiffany Bernie Williams.
20 watchers, was a $20 card 2 weeks ago:
$182.02
It's funny (and sweet for me) that you bring up that card, because just last week I looked up its completed sales since I have a PSA 10 copy, and I remember thinking to myself "oh well, no love for Bernie."
I recognize how hard it is to get 10's from 1980's products, but at the same time, there is evidence that it isn't extremely hard for some PSA submitters to get 10's. Take eBay seller MV1965. He's been selling Bonds 1987 Topps PSA 10's from two submissions this year. Not sure who submitted the cards, but that seller is selling them. Looking at those submissions, from Cert# 43594058 to #43594072 there are 15 straight 1987 Topps Bonds PSA 10's. Also, from cert's 42798363-42798396 there are 14 1987 Topps Bonds PSA 10's.
So no matter how hard it is to find gem mint 1980's cards, some people are finding them and submitting them successfully for 10's. Two subs, 48 total 1987 Topps Bonds graded in those two subs, 29 10's.
Based on the math that is kicking around here on these threads for odds on finding gem mint cards from 1980s unopened products, this speaks to a reality that in 2020, there are still other ways to find and grade 10s in bulk from the 80s.
This McGwire is getting some major action. I bought the off centered copy I posted above from what would turn out to be my first college economics professor and who got me hooked on it. He had an entire lecture about how he sold them all off as the chase for 70 was peaking and that is when we both realized I was one of his customers. Unfortunately I paid $160 as a 19 year old for that one and didn't realize how critical centering was.
Wow, $1775 with 2 days to go! I remember when I got back into collecting around '98-'99 thanks in large part to this card and all the Big Mac/Sammy Sosa hype. From what I recall, at it's peak this card sold for around $3500 in PSA 10. I've always thought this card was a modern classic and just had the "it" factor when it comes to baseball cards. Shoot, this card is already 35 years old so it's basically vintage.
And, not that it matters to me, but that PWCC PSA 10 has a fairly distracting fisheye in his jersey, yet it gets the PWCC high end sticker? Oh well. In reality, though, this is a pretty tough modern card, with centering, print imperfections, surface bubbles, and a host of other defects to knock the grade down.
Here's a PSA 10 I picked up back in 2001. Crazy to think I could actually sell it for a profit right now.
This McGwire is getting some major action. I bought the off centered copy I posted above from what would turn out to be my first college economics professor and who got me hooked on it. He had an entire lecture about how he sold them all off as the chase for 70 was peaking and that is when we both realized I was one of his customers. Unfortunately I paid $160 as a 19 year old for that one and didn't realize how critical centering was.
Wow, $1775 with 2 days to go! I remember when I got back into collecting around '98-'99 thanks in large part to this card and all the Big Mac/Sammy Sosa hype. From what I recall, at it's peak this card sold for around $3500 in PSA 10. I've always thought this card was a modern classic and just had the "it" factor when it comes to baseball cards. Shoot, this card is already 35 years old so it's basically vintage.
And, not that it matters to me, but that PWCC PSA 10 has a fairly distracting fisheye in his jersey, yet it gets the PWCC high end sticker? Oh well. In reality, though, this is a pretty tough modern card, with centering, print imperfections, surface bubbles, and a host of other defects to knock the grade down.
Here's a PSA 10 I picked up back in 2001. Crazy to think I could actually sell it for a profit right now.
I don't understand how people can look at this card and then say "I can't tell the difference between a PSA 9 and a PSA 10." Someone please find me a PSA 9 that looks like that -- no tilt, centered, with that print job. You won't find one with that print job.
@dustinspeaks said:
0.4%, you're totally fooling yourself. There are guys out there who have storage lockers full of 1987 Topps wax.
The stuff I've been collecting over the past few years, the productions numbers are like 200. Not 2 million. So maybe I'm looking at it the wrong way. I don't think so though.
Luis Sojo?
All of the cards in protectors were the dudes who were hot back then.
Need a gem of his 90 Leaf RC for my 1996 World Series Yankees set :-)
It certainly feels like the same phenomenon that was happening in 2015 to a bunch of 1950's and 1960's cards is happening to 1980's cards now. Canseco PSA 10 rookies at $650? Perhaps his Flavor Flav style hustle to stay relevant is paying off. Perhaps our unregulated and oftentimes shady hobby has some players that have turned their sights on 1980's stars. Hard to believe that all of a sudden there are enough new collectors to keep these prices afloat for long. What a strange five years it has been in this hobby.
@Frozencaribou said:
It certainly feels like the same phenomenon that was happening in 2015 to a bunch of 1950's and 1960's cards is happening to 1980's cards now. Canseco PSA 10 rookies at $650? Perhaps his Flavor Flav style hustle to stay relevant is paying off. Perhaps our unregulated and oftentimes shady hobby has some players that have turned their sights on 1980's stars. Hard to believe that all of a sudden there are enough new collectors to keep these prices afloat for long. What a strange five years it has been in this hobby.
I think the same thing as you.
I lack the balls to put my cards where my mouth is, sell them now and buy them cheaper later, though.
How about you?
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
I have 2 86 Donruss Cansecos in assembly right now. I sent them in the day after Thanksgiving. I thought at that moment they were perfect. Now I doubt they get 10s because the state of the market and the lack of my faith that I will get a fair shake on anything I send in that heats up. Oh well prove me wrong PSA.
@Frozencaribou said:
It certainly feels like the same phenomenon that was happening in 2015 to a bunch of 1950's and 1960's cards is happening to 1980's cards now. Canseco PSA 10 rookies at $650? Perhaps his Flavor Flav style hustle to stay relevant is paying off. Perhaps our unregulated and oftentimes shady hobby has some players that have turned their sights on 1980's stars. Hard to believe that all of a sudden there are enough new collectors to keep these prices afloat for long. What a strange five years it has been in this hobby.
I think the same thing as you.
I lack the balls to put my cards where my mouth is, sell them now and buy them cheaper later, though.
How about you?
I'm about to move my Jordans and Pippen rc. Maybe these prices will keep going up but I want 50's hockey cards instead. Roll the dice
@Frozencaribou said:
It certainly feels like the same phenomenon that was happening in 2015 to a bunch of 1950's and 1960's cards is happening to 1980's cards now. Canseco PSA 10 rookies at $650? Perhaps his Flavor Flav style hustle to stay relevant is paying off. Perhaps our unregulated and oftentimes shady hobby has some players that have turned their sights on 1980's stars. Hard to believe that all of a sudden there are enough new collectors to keep these prices afloat for long. What a strange five years it has been in this hobby.
I think the same thing as you.
I lack the balls to put my cards where my mouth is, sell them now and buy them cheaper later, though.
How about you?
I'm about to move my Jordans and Pippen rc. Maybe these prices will keep going up but I want 50's hockey cards instead. Roll the dice
Bold. If classic hockey’s where it’s at for you, that’s awesome - you should be able to go on a pretty good spree.
Good luck!
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
No live sports. Every sports channel showing classic games from the past. Guys stuck at home bored out of their mind, digging childhood collections out. I think there's a chance this is a legitimate rush of people back to the hobby they participated in as a youth, hoping the cards bring memories of better times.
I like the way Tim put it. I think some of this stuff has maxed out but I lack the balls to sell in the hopes of buying back cheaper later. I did that before in 2014 and it blew up in my face.
I feel like we're in one of those 1980s commercials where they would just jump cut from one shot of the wacky spokesperson posing with an item to another and the guy would just be shouting prices as though the absurdity of how low they are simply demanded you rush immediately to the store and buy something.
"Whirlpool dish washers for $399! Ginsu knife sets for nineteen bucks! His & her's matching recliners...$199! Six mops for six dollars! CRAZY LARRY'S PRICES ARE INSAAAANE!!!!"
I agree that 10s are rare - but 9s are not. I cannot tell the difference most of the time. As the cards get more expensive the population of 9s will explode. This will cause the differential on 9s and 10s to get to a super high multiple. If it gets to a point where a 9 of a card is $1 and a 10 is $1000 - I think the people who will pay that multiple will be a small niche.
@brad31 said:
I agree that 10s are rare - but 9s are not. I cannot tell the difference most of the time. As the cards get more expensive the population of 9s will explode. This will cause the differential on 9s and 10s to get to a super high multiple. If it gets to a point where a 9 of a card is $1 and a 10 is $1000 - I think the people who will pay that multiple will be a small niche.
Anybody that sells a 9 RC that was recently graded for $1 is a complete idiot. With the lowest grading cost is $9 (and you need to grade 100 to get that price) and a 4-8 month waiting time on top of that seller fees shipping costs to and from PSA and then again to sell. Baseline for the crappiest should start at $15-20, and that does not even include the price of the card. I will occasionally sell ultra modern to modern base cards in PSA 8-9 for $5 just to move them if unwanted but people that are buying graded cards should realize there is a cost in the matter and sellers should not give in.
If someone wants a graded card they should be willing to pay for it or go do it themselves.
I know you are talking in hyperbole but like I said $15-20 baseline should be held across the board on RCs
Unbelievable and very exiting times in the hobby!! Many of you have thoughts that I surely agree with. ReggieCleveland (Arthur) nails it...... no live sports, boredom, nostalgia, sentimental value and just the plain "cool factor" to say you own a Gem Mint 10 of (you fill in the blank). Coolness is priceless.
rexvos: Having 2 Cansecos in assembly must be nerve wracking and exiting but I couldn't agree with you more that they may now be over scrutinized based on value..... and you were already near 4 months waiting before Covid-19. Best of luck for dimes!
1951WheatiesPremium: I'm lacking a little in the nut sack as well!! But hey: Canseco, McGwire, Bonds, Bo Jackson, etc.. who cares.... not GOATS IMO and never will be. Gone, out the door at crazy profits.
I'm going out on a limb here and thinking that most seasoned collectors have thought that the '80's were undervalued but not as much as we're seeing today.
Can you seriously imagine the back log of submissions at PSA? Especially in value/bulk and all the Jordans, 80's and 90's that will flood the market in a year. Will the demand keep up with the supply?
@dustinspeaks said:
The idea that there's monster boxes out there full of gem mint Barry Bonds rookies is hilarious. It wasn't like modern is today; 90+% of the stuff that came out of packs back then had no chance to gem. It's the complete opposite now.
Arthur
I wouldn't say it's hilarious. People bought cards in bulk like they were stocks back in the 80s. Bricks of 50, 100, or even 1,000 of the same player were not uncommon in multiple ads in SCD. Bonds was not a blue chip prospect and very reasonable in price. It wouldn't shock me if a large amount surfaced from one source, though those odds seem low now.
I remember bricks. Hensley Mullins, the next Yankee Mickey Mantle. Chuck knobloch who couldn’t throw from 2nd to 1st was super hot. Kevin Maas the next Yankee Mickey Mantle. Sammy Sosa Leaf in common boxes. Ahhh the days of so much fire wood but it was so much fun. I don’t regret a penny of the millions I spent on that. But you couldn’t get me to spend a nickel on a 80’s or 90’s card again.
And yes I did hit on a few guys like KG jr and some Jordan dude in BB. Few and far between
W.C.Fields "I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Speaking of 1980's madness. I give you 1984 Donruss BBCE Wax! Before anybody says maybe the Best Offer was hit and they didn't sell this high, check the SOLD tab. At least one box Paid full price of $750 plus shipping. It won't be long before a FASC box pops up with a BIN for $1,000 at this rate lol
Not 80s but how much will the run up hit guys like Chipper Jones and Ivan Rodriguez? We have seen it in the 1990 Bowman Bernie Williams and the Pedro Martinez 1991 Upper Deck Final and 1992 have seen a little. Last few Pudge 1991 Bowman’s have hit around $100 in a 10. As great as Pudge was does he have the hobby support for much else?
@sayheywyo said:
Unbelievable and very exiting times in the hobby!! Many of you have thoughts that I surely agree with. ReggieCleveland (Arthur) nails it...... no live sports, boredom, nostalgia, sentimental value and just the plain "cool factor" to say you own a Gem Mint 10 of (you fill in the blank). Coolness is priceless.
rexvos: Having 2 Cansecos in assembly must be nerve wracking and exiting but I couldn't agree with you more that they may now be over scrutinized based on value..... and you were already near 4 months waiting before Covid-19. Best of luck for dimes!
1951WheatiesPremium: I'm lacking a little in the nut sack as well!! But hey: Canseco, McGwire, Bonds, Bo Jackson, etc.. who cares.... not GOATS IMO and never will be. Gone, out the door at crazy profits.
I'm going out on a limb here and thinking that most seasoned collectors have thought that the '80's were undervalued but not as much as we're seeing today.
Can you seriously imagine the back log of submissions at PSA? Especially in value/bulk and all the Jordans, 80's and 90's that will flood the market in a year. Will the demand keep up with the supply?
2 Cansecos
1 90 Leaf Thomas
2 MCGriff Donruss
1 Maddux Donruss
1 90 Leaf Larry Walker
1 1990 Score Sup Emmitt Smith
Plus a bunch of other cards that have caught fire recently on that sub.
On my one I sent in late December I have 5 86 Fleer Update Bonds
I was ahead of the curve but with everything that happened it nullified that.
I don't understand how people can look at this card and then say "I can't tell the difference between a PSA 9 and a PSA 10." Someone please find me a PSA 9 that looks like that -- no tilt, centered, with that print job. You won't find one with that print job.
Arthur
Thanks, Arthur. Yeah, it's pretty cool how some of these fairly common cards from the 80's can still have their little condition quirks and issues.
For example, from what I can tell, practically every single '85 Topps McGwire RC has that tiny yellow print dot on the left side of the red nameplate. Also, the richness of color can vary greatly on this card. One key thing to find, for anyone interested in picking this card up, is nice, deep colors. It can make even a PSA 8 stand out against a faded PSA 9.
I don't understand how people can look at this card and then say "I can't tell the difference between a PSA 9 and a PSA 10." Someone please find me a PSA 9 that looks like that -- no tilt, centered, with that print job. You won't find one with that print job.
Arthur
Thanks, Arthur. Yeah, it's pretty cool how some of these fairly common cards from the 80's can still have their little condition quirks and issues.
For example, from what I can tell, practically every single '85 Topps McGwire RC has that tiny yellow print dot on the left side of the red nameplate. Also, the richness of color can vary greatly on this card. One key thing to find, for anyone interested in picking this card up, is nice, deep colors. It can make even a PSA 8 stand out against a faded PSA 9.
Comments
I know, right!!
Look at it this way....
One share of Amazon is $2379 with a 423 MILLION float Fundamentally a growing company.
One share of a griffey is $1500 with a 3795 float. Fundamentally, HOF RC collector base is growing and hotter than ever.
Not quit apples to apples, but somewhat comparable.
The hostility here is guys worked their arses off to score a 10
Dustiinspeakes, I've been working on my hof collection since 2009. You'll have peaks and valleys. Stick with your genre. Long term you'll do great. The debate is what will the hobby look like in 10, 20 years if the next generation doesn't get involved
Edit: my humble opinion, the griffey will probably settle back down in a few months to a $800-$1000 baseline
A couple of thoughts:
I don’t think @dustinspeaks is completely wrong about what he is saying and neither are the guys on the other side. The variables are actual submission and attaining a grade of PSA 10.
With respect to the former, no one has mentioned that PSA isn’t the only game in town anymore. While we’re all here because we love cards (and for many, it’s PSA cards), there’s plenty of 10s in Beckett (Pristine) and SGC (100/10) holders already that may stay there forever. Not to mention those in PSA 9, SGC 98/9+ and 9, Beckett 9.5 and 9 that could be successfully reviewed to PSA 10. I don’t mean every card would bump or cross but obviously some could. While not super common, the success stories are out there. This is material already graded, remember, so a grader somewhere called it perfect or almost perfect. I know some modern collectors who prefer other companies and have all Beckett slabs for modern and will keep it that way as long as they have it. Those cards may never make it to Newport Beach.
As for attaining PSA 10, that conversation has a tendency to devolve quickly. Suffice it to say, it’s tough to get them. Period.
And I think that’s an important distinction, too. There are card collectors and then there are graded card collectors. It’s two different animals and that should really be acknowledged, also. I have heard many people opine that all the ‘good vintage material is already graded’ and yet “new” items come to light seemingly all the time from a century ago; new high grade T206 Ty Cobb back Cobb’s, new high grade 52 Mantle’s and most recently the ‘Uncle Jimmy’ find. Some dismiss these finds as the work of charlatans but I think those people underestimate the number of people out there who collect or collected baseball cards raw, basically unaware of the subculture of baseball card grading that has emerged over the last 30 years.
Post Script
@dad2cl3
Love Luis Sojo! Important part of the 1998 World Champion New York Yankees as he came up with big hits quite often that season...
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
I think there's another aspect to this that we're not talking about. I've been waxing poetic about what would happen when the day came that the hobby boom kids returned to the hobby as adults with disposable income. After all, that was certainly the largest amount of childhood collectors the hobby has ever seen over one period of time.
I think COVID shot some adrenaline into the natural order of that process. An entire country of guys stuck at home with zero sports to watch and they're climbing up the walls. Childhood collections are being dug out, nostalgia is an excellent medication.
What I think we may all have to do -- and what I think is going to be the hardest circle to square for many older collectors -- is re-calibrate what we consider to be "low pop." Obviously, if a card only has four examples graded it's safe to say that it is low pop. But doesn't demand also determine whether a card is low pop or not, as well?
I don't think there's any kind of definition of low pop that states there is a firm number that the card must be under in order to be considered low pop. If there are 10 graded copies and no one wants one, what does the pop matter? If there are 1,500 copies and there are 10,000 motivated buyers, we may have a new definition of what "low pop" means.
I already know some of the responses I'm going to get -- "1,500 can never be considered "low pop." What's the number then? What determines what that number should be? If there's a tectonic shift in the amount of demand we have in the market, shouldn't that effect the way we view the supply?
Just some thoughts.
Arthur
As someone who has never sent in a graded card I can't speak to everything being discussed. I have read quite a few of the threads of guys trying to assemble PSA 10 grades of 80's sets and have used that information to assemble my own non-graded sets from packs.
What I've been working on since 2013 is 1990 Topps. I've opened around 65 boxes of 1990 Topps, mostly wax. That's more than 3 cases. 2340 packs, 37,000 cards, giving roughly 47 copies of each card. In each pack, almost universally the card next to the gum is ruined. Sometimes the second one in also has a slight stain. The card on the other side sometimes has a wax stain. Of all the other cards, I've pulled around 600 that I penny sleeved as potential 9s or 10s. Were I to submit I would be surprised to have more than 20% of them grade as 10s. I've also not found a single Frank Thomas or Ken Griffey Jr. from a pack that I would send in for grading. Not one. That should give you some idea of the quality of cards sitting in packs.
I also agree with Arthur on the quality of existing collections sitting out there. As a kid I started in with penny sleeves and top loaders around 1993-1994. Before that the only protection any of my cards got were binders. Of all the mid 90's cards that I can distinctly remember pulling and depositing in top loaders, there are less than 10 that I would even consider submitting.
It should. I was just thinking about that in the shower this morning.
There are 6,886 in the pop reports in total that have graded Gem Mint and BGS pristine. This included PSA, legacy SGC, and BGS.
If there are 2 million copies out there that is 0.003443 or .34% of the total copies. Prime beef is the top 1.5% of all cuts for comparison.
Today, cards are treated like stocks. Many entering the hobby today never collected as a kid. That's the way I see the new blood continuing. Then you add in the gobs from the 80's and 90's coming back and you have one strong hobby. But this hasn't been a kids hobby in a long long time and it probably never will be again. It just won't. Those days are long gone. Evolution.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
I think this is a great thread. I first bought baseball card packs in 1980. So this is my wheelhouse. I have always been a collector and have only left the hobby for brief sabbaticals (college and early married life). I grade a lot of modern and ultra modern stuff but my biggest thrill is finding something from my collecting wheelhouse to submit. Last November I was doing a show in DFW another dealer had an 84 Fleer Update set. I asked him if I could look at the cards before buying since they were not factory sealed. I did. He told me his price. I could not give him the cash fast enough. I submitted the 3 key rcs the next week. Then sat on pins and needles until March when I finally got grades back. I knew what I thought the cards should be but even though I have subbed 1000s and 1000s of cards my opinion would not be the final authority.
Here are the results.
My son who is 18 and I collect together, so I use him as a second set of eyes. He thought the Gooden was the weakest. I thought the Clemens at first. We both agreed the Puckett was perfect. All could have been 10s in our opinion.
All this to say 10s are never a done deal until the cards are back in hand. That is why there is a huge disparity in 9 and 10 pricing.
There is a guy on Twitter I comment with sometimes who bought a raw Jordan at the National in 2018 for a grand. Spent $900 to get it graded and nailed a 10.
I will never understand how people in the business of selling cards do not try and maximize their value and leave so much money on the table.
Great score I remember when you posted this. My prized card for years was the 84 Clemens. One of the coolest sets ever!
Agree completely but I am glad they don’t. Seller had several 84 USFL sets as well but were all sealed. If I did not have the key cards out of those I would have jumped on them as well.
No doubt.
If a casual collector either doesn't want to be bothered going through the grading process or simply isn't informed I totally get it but man if you are making a living on the spread of your cards make the spread!
Card grading is literally the most explosive value creator I have ever encountered in my life. It obviously isn't exciting that rates to grade are going up but no one is stopping because the small investment can pay off dramatically. It honestly still boggles my mind but it is what it is.
That’s exactly why I have over 7k in grading fees at PSA now or in transit to them. Most bought from dealers who are too lazy to maximize the money they can make. Simply said they are not excellent at what they do. There will be tons of misses in the swings I take but as a rule it always pays off. The other thing is I am not primarily grading these to sell I am grading them to keep and sell primarily to recoup fees and load up for the next round to submit.
Very nice!
That means a lot of good cards are coming!
Pretty sure I'm understanding today's market condition.
I'm sitting around, bored, thinking about cards, thinking about the 80s.
So I hop on the computer, after promising myself (about 5 purchases ago) to give it a rest awhile.
I wanna give a shout out to 4SC. Their inventory is always stellar, with a lot of turnover. Never had a bad experience. Always happy with card quality. Scans are very detailed.
Be patient, they're on about a 2 week backlog with deliveries due to current situation.
Wow. The boredom is worse than I suspected.
Watched a random auction close. 90 bowman not tiffany Bernie Williams.
20 watchers, was a $20 card 2 weeks ago:
$182.02
https://www.ebay.com/itm/PSA-10-1990-Bowman-Bernie-Williams-439-Baseball-Card-RC-Rookie-New-York-Yank-/264720107792?_trksid=p2349526.m4383.l10137.c10&nordt=true&rt=nc&orig_cvip=true
It's funny (and sweet for me) that you bring up that card, because just last week I looked up its completed sales since I have a PSA 10 copy, and I remember thinking to myself "oh well, no love for Bernie."
I recognize how hard it is to get 10's from 1980's products, but at the same time, there is evidence that it isn't extremely hard for some PSA submitters to get 10's. Take eBay seller MV1965. He's been selling Bonds 1987 Topps PSA 10's from two submissions this year. Not sure who submitted the cards, but that seller is selling them. Looking at those submissions, from Cert# 43594058 to #43594072 there are 15 straight 1987 Topps Bonds PSA 10's. Also, from cert's 42798363-42798396 there are 14 1987 Topps Bonds PSA 10's.
So no matter how hard it is to find gem mint 1980's cards, some people are finding them and submitting them successfully for 10's. Two subs, 48 total 1987 Topps Bonds graded in those two subs, 29 10's.
Based on the math that is kicking around here on these threads for odds on finding gem mint cards from 1980s unopened products, this speaks to a reality that in 2020, there are still other ways to find and grade 10s in bulk from the 80s.
Wow, $1775 with 2 days to go! I remember when I got back into collecting around '98-'99 thanks in large part to this card and all the Big Mac/Sammy Sosa hype. From what I recall, at it's peak this card sold for around $3500 in PSA 10. I've always thought this card was a modern classic and just had the "it" factor when it comes to baseball cards. Shoot, this card is already 35 years old so it's basically vintage.
And, not that it matters to me, but that PWCC PSA 10 has a fairly distracting fisheye in his jersey, yet it gets the PWCC high end sticker? Oh well. In reality, though, this is a pretty tough modern card, with centering, print imperfections, surface bubbles, and a host of other defects to knock the grade down.
Here's a PSA 10 I picked up back in 2001. Crazy to think I could actually sell it for a profit right now.
I don't understand how people can look at this card and then say "I can't tell the difference between a PSA 9 and a PSA 10." Someone please find me a PSA 9 that looks like that -- no tilt, centered, with that print job. You won't find one with that print job.
Arthur
Need a gem of his 90 Leaf RC for my 1996 World Series Yankees set :-)
Jason
Personal Collection | Willie Woodburn | Legion of Doom
I had my eye on that card for months thinking it would drop in price :-)
Jason
Personal Collection | Willie Woodburn | Legion of Doom
Good call on the Canseco. Blew thru $300 no problem.
Where will it go from here?
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-Donruss-Jose-Canseco-ROOKIE-RC-39-PSA-10-GEM-MINT-PWCC/143596475446?hash=item216f045436:g:iAIAAOSwsChesIHf
Holy shartballs. Canseco fever is here!
Arthur
It certainly feels like the same phenomenon that was happening in 2015 to a bunch of 1950's and 1960's cards is happening to 1980's cards now. Canseco PSA 10 rookies at $650? Perhaps his Flavor Flav style hustle to stay relevant is paying off. Perhaps our unregulated and oftentimes shady hobby has some players that have turned their sights on 1980's stars. Hard to believe that all of a sudden there are enough new collectors to keep these prices afloat for long. What a strange five years it has been in this hobby.
I think the same thing as you.
I lack the balls to put my cards where my mouth is, sell them now and buy them cheaper later, though.
How about you?
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
I have 2 86 Donruss Cansecos in assembly right now. I sent them in the day after Thanksgiving. I thought at that moment they were perfect. Now I doubt they get 10s because the state of the market and the lack of my faith that I will get a fair shake on anything I send in that heats up. Oh well prove me wrong PSA.
.> @1951WheatiesPremium said:
I'm about to move my Jordans and Pippen rc. Maybe these prices will keep going up but I want 50's hockey cards instead. Roll the dice
Bold. If classic hockey’s where it’s at for you, that’s awesome - you should be able to go on a pretty good spree.
Good luck!
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
No live sports. Every sports channel showing classic games from the past. Guys stuck at home bored out of their mind, digging childhood collections out. I think there's a chance this is a legitimate rush of people back to the hobby they participated in as a youth, hoping the cards bring memories of better times.
I like the way Tim put it. I think some of this stuff has maxed out but I lack the balls to sell in the hopes of buying back cheaper later. I did that before in 2014 and it blew up in my face.
Arthur
I collect hockey not basketball, so hope you have a blast
Interesting watching market "readjustments"
Added to the list '83 Topps Gwynn:
$1919, $1725, $1326, $1330, and all the way back to 5/6 $1200
Current auctions are blowing up as well. The herd stampedes
I feel like we're in one of those 1980s commercials where they would just jump cut from one shot of the wacky spokesperson posing with an item to another and the guy would just be shouting prices as though the absurdity of how low they are simply demanded you rush immediately to the store and buy something.
"Whirlpool dish washers for $399! Ginsu knife sets for nineteen bucks! His & her's matching recliners...$199! Six mops for six dollars! CRAZY LARRY'S PRICES ARE INSAAAANE!!!!"
Arthur
LOL!. Except bizarro world Crazy Larry prices.
It's funny how the BIN'ers gotta adjust their already insane prices upward as auctions update
I agree that 10s are rare - but 9s are not. I cannot tell the difference most of the time. As the cards get more expensive the population of 9s will explode. This will cause the differential on 9s and 10s to get to a super high multiple. If it gets to a point where a 9 of a card is $1 and a 10 is $1000 - I think the people who will pay that multiple will be a small niche.
Anybody that sells a 9 RC that was recently graded for $1 is a complete idiot. With the lowest grading cost is $9 (and you need to grade 100 to get that price) and a 4-8 month waiting time on top of that seller fees shipping costs to and from PSA and then again to sell. Baseline for the crappiest should start at $15-20, and that does not even include the price of the card. I will occasionally sell ultra modern to modern base cards in PSA 8-9 for $5 just to move them if unwanted but people that are buying graded cards should realize there is a cost in the matter and sellers should not give in.
If someone wants a graded card they should be willing to pay for it or go do it themselves.
I know you are talking in hyperbole but like I said $15-20 baseline should be held across the board on RCs
Unbelievable and very exiting times in the hobby!! Many of you have thoughts that I surely agree with. ReggieCleveland (Arthur) nails it...... no live sports, boredom, nostalgia, sentimental value and just the plain "cool factor" to say you own a Gem Mint 10 of (you fill in the blank). Coolness is priceless.
rexvos: Having 2 Cansecos in assembly must be nerve wracking and exiting but I couldn't agree with you more that they may now be over scrutinized based on value..... and you were already near 4 months waiting before Covid-19. Best of luck for dimes!
1951WheatiesPremium: I'm lacking a little in the nut sack as well!! But hey: Canseco, McGwire, Bonds, Bo Jackson, etc.. who cares.... not GOATS IMO and never will be. Gone, out the door at crazy profits.
I'm going out on a limb here and thinking that most seasoned collectors have thought that the '80's were undervalued but not as much as we're seeing today.
Can you seriously imagine the back log of submissions at PSA? Especially in value/bulk and all the Jordans, 80's and 90's that will flood the market in a year. Will the demand keep up with the supply?
I remember bricks. Hensley Mullins, the next Yankee Mickey Mantle. Chuck knobloch who couldn’t throw from 2nd to 1st was super hot. Kevin Maas the next Yankee Mickey Mantle. Sammy Sosa Leaf in common boxes. Ahhh the days of so much fire wood but it was so much fun. I don’t regret a penny of the millions I spent on that. But you couldn’t get me to spend a nickel on a 80’s or 90’s card again.
And yes I did hit on a few guys like KG jr and some Jordan dude in BB. Few and far between
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/PSA-9-Mint-1987-A-Question-Of-Sport-MIKE-TYSON-Rookie-Boxing-Card-UK-The-Ring/313075717707?_trkparms=aid=111001&algo=REC.SEED&ao=1&asc=20160908131621&meid=a936290feb154ef08ba2baf30036d2ac&pid=100678&rk=1&rkt=15&mehot=pp&sd=313075717707&itm=313075717707&pmt=0&noa=1&pg=2380057&_trksid=p2380057.c100678.m3607&_trkparms=pageci:db74174f-97e3-11ea-9da9-92b47ec70f55|parentrq:20676be71720a9ca2dc5eadbffa24a97|iid:1
This is a fairly easy Mike Tyson card to locate. There are 78 watchers on it and growing.
A year ago this would be lucky to have had 20. There are a lot more people looking at cards daily.
Speaking of 1980's madness. I give you 1984 Donruss BBCE Wax! Before anybody says maybe the Best Offer was hit and they didn't sell this high, check the SOLD tab. At least one box Paid full price of $750 plus shipping. It won't be long before a FASC box pops up with a BIN for $1,000 at this rate lol
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Not 80s but how much will the run up hit guys like Chipper Jones and Ivan Rodriguez? We have seen it in the 1990 Bowman Bernie Williams and the Pedro Martinez 1991 Upper Deck Final and 1992 have seen a little. Last few Pudge 1991 Bowman’s have hit around $100 in a 10. As great as Pudge was does he have the hobby support for much else?
1994 SP & Leaf Limited Alex Rodriguez RCs are moving upward
2 Cansecos
1 90 Leaf Thomas
2 MCGriff Donruss
1 Maddux Donruss
1 90 Leaf Larry Walker
1 1990 Score Sup Emmitt Smith
Plus a bunch of other cards that have caught fire recently on that sub.
On my one I sent in late December I have 5 86 Fleer Update Bonds
I was ahead of the curve but with everything that happened it nullified that.
Just hope I will not get “over scrutinized”
I had a group sub pop. Talk about just in the nick of time. These are all for my PC.
Arthur
Very nice!
I've always favored his Leaf vs other versions. Much lower pop than the others.
Chip-less black borders are impressive!
Thanks! Pack-pulled by me and self-subbed. The best kind of PSA 10 there is.
Arthur
Awesome results Arthur! Congrats!
$337
OMG
Thanks, Arthur. Yeah, it's pretty cool how some of these fairly common cards from the 80's can still have their little condition quirks and issues.
For example, from what I can tell, practically every single '85 Topps McGwire RC has that tiny yellow print dot on the left side of the red nameplate. Also, the richness of color can vary greatly on this card. One key thing to find, for anyone interested in picking this card up, is nice, deep colors. It can make even a PSA 8 stand out against a faded PSA 9.
Here's a couple more from the collection..
Ha you've officially reached troll status. Congrats.
Arthur
that tiffany is amazing.