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Silver's current true value.
DoubleEagle59
Posts: 8,198 ✭✭✭✭✭
As of today (April 20, 2020), , silver's price on Kitco is $15.22 USD an ounce.
I'm trying to get a grasp on this crazy silver market right now.
Based on dealer's websites and their bar charges, I would assume the 'true' current value for physical silver is somewhere between $18 and $19 USD an ounce.
What say you?
"Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
2
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true value (price) is what a buyer and a seller agree upon. Premiums over spot are much higher than they used to be. Spot has nothing to do with supply and demand of physical silver. It is determined by a bunch of players trading futures contracts. While current retail prices use spot as a starting point point for price (guess they gotta start somewhere), their premiums have everything to do with physical supply and demand which is obviously different than it was six months ago.
The amount of physical silver available for sale has decreased while the demand to buy that silver has increased. While laws of supply and demand are pretty much irrelevant in the fantasy futures (paper) market where there is unlimited supply, they continue to be at work in the real world.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I get that.
So if you were to sell me an ounce of silver, what price would you think is mutually fair.
That's basically the purpose of my question.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
The market determines what is "fair." Like other sellers, I would follow market pricing and depending on how bad I wanted to sell, my price would be adjusted above or below that.
It's about the same as how "fair price" is set with equities. There's the ask price by the seller, the "bid" price by the potential buyer and the "buy" price that was paid to indicate where the two parties met at that exact time. Note that bid, ask and buy prices are constantly changing.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Some weird chit going on out there, especially today with oil plummeting in price which affects almost everything else in some way, shape or form.
"Fair value" depends on the buyer and seller. Some think it is just right, some low. Circumstances make big sways.
Including "herd mentality" which is basically impossible to accurately predict.
However some dealers may offer lower or higher prices depending on which way they think the herd may go.
Just checking on other forums/sources and a lot of dealers just do not have an inventory of silver right now (non-numismatic).....even with buyers offering significant premiums....fun to watch. Cheers, RickO
Looks like you about hit the nail right on the head. $15.22 was fair value this morning, looks like it's ticked up a bit, $15.37 now.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
What does it take to get a dollar value from anyone?
You realize my question doesn't require an answer that is legally binding.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
Seems to me, silver roughly $3 over current spot price is fair and moves quick enough. It's selling on ebay as much as $5 over from the small sampling I've done over the past couple days. A guy at my local shop bought 2 rolls of generic buffalo's for $380 each last wednesday that I saw.
Click on this link to see my ebay listings.
I'll give you 15.38 for your silver, that's more than your fair value.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
If price discovery is difficult in the physical market look then look at the paper side.
SLV has traded 16 million shares at average weighted price of 14.28. Thats about a quarter billion dollars....how much you want?
BTW---Thats up 30% off its low and is super liquid. No need to store or transport it or ask questions about "what is true current value". Cant say that about physical.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Price discovery is not difficult in the physical market. It's a simple matter of real supply and real demand. The guy supplying and the guy demanding come to an agreement and determine the price.
Any counterparty risk with that SLV? lol
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
We’ve been selling generic rounds/bars at $19. It’s going fast at that. not for me though
My YouTube Channel
Looks like you just described counterparty risk. But you still cant give the OP a number hes looking for.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
But you still cant give the OP a number hes looking for.
sure i did. Current value is the amount agreed upon by both parties. It's constantly changing. It's not something you find on a kitco chart. You find it on the price list (absent of "make offer") of retailers, which is mostly being accepted by buyers or it would be lower. You can also find it on ebay's listing of completed sales.
In many cases it's negotiable.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Like I and other people here have repeatedly and correctly told you there is no counterparty risk unless a transaction is left to be fulfilled at a later time. A promise such as delivery or payment or at a later date leaves the transaction at risk as well as does "we'll hold your metal for you in our secure vault."
Master the concept of counterparty risk before attempting more complex discussion.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Mutually fair.
Is that a new word in the Webster dictionary?
WOW it's there....loosely translated from another language says a deal struck between parties.
Lots of variables come into play.
Rare
Vintage
Preceived Sentimental value
Willingness of both parties to come to an agreement.
Then buy paper stocks if you feel that is the fair value.
The current market is what it is. People are falling over themselves to pay $5 over spot right now for generic, close to $10 over for ASE's. Dealers are paying $2 plus over spot internally for generic, hard to get ASEs for under $22 internally.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Its the definition of couterparty risk that derryb and that dang Coloradan, and the bean counter cant grasp.
The OP wants to know if silver is $15, $18, $21, or $25, yet derryb keeps beating around the bush....probably because he sells it for $25 knowing its true value is $15.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I was able to answer his question. Unsurprisingly you were not. All you are capable of doing is question other people's answers. If it walks like a troll . . .
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
This is comparing apples to oranges, and the few members implying that the spot price is the "true value" of silver actually know it is not.
Go to your auto parts store and price out the 5,000 plus parts you need to build a car. I hate when someone shows up with a trade, with a huge dent they could not afford to repair, and get mad that the appraisal takes more than $50 off for the damage. Or a engine light on and mad that the appraisal has to build in risk for the potential repair cost.
I have yet to hear one person say they would be happy to sell their silver to anyone for current spot or a $1 over. Because they KNOW that "true value" is what buyers are willing to pay. Right now it is a true sellers market. Sometimes it is a buyers market.
Still beating that dead horse coho?
In all of your comments in this thread you list only one number....$15.38.
So there you have it OP. The emporor
has finally spoken with truth.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
So if you take your 10 oz bar to the derryb and he offers you $153.80, then thats the true value right?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
JM BULLION has 1 oz rounds at $19.50 1-20 ounces
https://www.jmbullion.com/1-oz-silvertowne-silver-round-varied-design-new/
AND
10-ounce bars at $192.10 for 1-9 bars
https://www.jmbullion.com/10-oz-silvertowne-silver-bar-varied-design-new/
you can buy them cheaper if you buy 500 T-OZ
MIKE B.
Sorry, not selling at the moment but when the time comes I will certainly let you know.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Plus state sales tax if applicable.
No, that would be its value to derryb. It may be more (or less) to Mike59 or blitzdude. derryb is not the market for silver, rather just one buyer in a market with an unknown number of buyers.
Its is funny to watch the hypocrites that sell ignore spot values now that they are low and will and have sold at that same spot price when its high. I have heard excuses like well I bought it for 18oz so loss if sale at low lower spot. Duh So its ok for someone else to take on that loss? Lol funny to watch. I collect only to give my kid a little nest egg and fun once I leave gods little waiting room. I not buying anything other then from mint now, or till its around spot price again. What most sellers don't understand is that if you sold that at spot/respectable premiums now you would be making a friend/ buyer for life in my opinion, that would be way better off then going out of business or known as a gouger. Just my 2 cents. To OP just buy when its at what your comfortable buying at and your need for it.
Once again for the slow guy who still does not understand "counterparty risk" and now does not understand my already stated pricing for silver:
"The market determines what is "fair." Like other sellers, I would follow market pricing and depending on how bad I wanted to sell, my price would be adjusted above or below that."
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
As I have said in other threads, it depends on how much you want to buy.
If you are looking for 5000 ounce bars, spot is a good indicator.
The only reason spot price has any influence on physical price is because of the promise to sell physical at a set price sometime in the future. Recent premiums are indicating both sellers and buyers of physical (it takes two to tango) are finally throwing the BS flag as they are realizing that one is rotten apples and the other is juicy oranges.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Here is a question disguised as an offer: I will sell you a 5000 ounce silver bar for spot (as of April 21, 2020 at noon EDT), plus $ 2.
We'll meet at an agreed upon public place. You'll give me cash, and I'll hand over the bar. Assume that counter party risk has been dealt with.
Anyone believing in a disconnect between "paper" and "physical" must think this is a great deal.
Not great, but a pretty good deal. Resell could be limited.
Oh, and a disconnect between paper and physical is not just a belief. Record premiums prove it is a fact.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
5000 oz bar??
I thought 1000 oz bars were the largest (they weigh about 65 lbs.).
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
@DoubleEagle59:
Sorry, yes, you’re right, I’ll deliver 5 bars, each roughly 1000 ounces.
Your payment will of course be based on actual weight!
Amazing some people want to live and die by the "paper contract" or futures pricing. Those people probably expected to get thousands of gallons of crude oil delivered today at -$40 per barrel since that was the price of May wtic futures later in the day. But, but, but....that's the listed price. You really want $20 per barrel. That's not fair.....lol. Yeah, you read that right....oil futures were net "negative" today....losing more than 100% of their value in less than a day. Guess, that's the new normal for "paper commodities." You have to love "efficient market pricing"....lol.
As far as reality for silver pricing? The most typical pricing of silver over the past century or more has been 1/45th to 1/65th of the price of gold. Considering that paper silver derivatives number about the same as 13 yrs of world annual silver production....that's not a very good method. A more reasonable range right here would be $26-$38/oz.
Sounds like risk in finding a counterparty? Hmmm.
Looks like Meltdown and Mike59 have offered the best answer to the OP for typical collector price points.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
My true value for silver would be around $15/oz if I were buying 1 oz rounds or ASEs, and around $25/oz if I were selling them. Any questions?
I knew it would happen.
Paper silver just keeps getting hammered...a few days up a few cents then it drops a dollar in an instant!
Dang.
We agree again. Thats three times today. What you put in your coffee this morning? 
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Dang.
We agree again. What you put in your coffee this morning? 
cream
I knew it would happen.
Repeat, again - there is no counterparty risk until there is a transaction AND the transaction involves promises to be fulfilled sometime in the future. Write it on the blackboard 100 times.
they gave an answer that is good only for the moment. I gave and answer that is good at any moment. If the OP actually wants to buy he can PM me for my "at the moment" price.
Stop stirring, start contributing.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I don't want to buy or sell.
I was only looking for confirmation that as of now, the Kitco price for silver is not an accurate value for a 'fair market' transaction of silver.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
The kitco spot price is not a reflection of the physical silver price. It is the price for silver futures contracts that don't normally involve physical silver. It is the price physical sellers start at before adding their premiums (markups).
the best way to get this moment's price is to look at recently completed ebay sales and compare that with a major dealer's website such as APMEX.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
There is a large bullion dealer (google search) offering to buy 10 oz bars for $151-$154. They will sell them to you for about $180-$185.
Dont forget to add in fees, postage and other counterparty risks when not dealing in person and in the moment as these can be considerable....especially on EBAY.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
That is a bad offer. There is a large bullion dealer (attached) paying $167.50 for a 10 oz bar. There's a much larger physical premium right now than $0.50/oz.
https://trading.upstatecoins.com/wp-content/uploads/dealer.pdf
Thanks everyone for your input.
Crazy times indeed with the PM markets.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)