Impact of the Coronavirus from China on our hobby/

1northcoin

"Stocks slumped around the globe on fears over the virus, with the S&P 500 Index sliding the most in almost four months. Bonds and gold rallied.

Deaths in China climbed to at least 80, the National Health Commission said Monday."

As reported on the PCGS website gold price has been fairly stagnant for the last week or two. Not sure what the media report is referencing as to "gold rallied." Could see money potentially being pulled out of the stock market if stocks continue to drop and that would potentially free up funds to become available for commodities including gold and silver as well as collector coins seen as investments.

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-27/u-s-says-no-new-coronavirus-cases-with-110-under-monitoring

DFrohman

I certainly have the collecting bug!
.
.
Oh, never mind .....
.
.

291fifth

Don't hold your breath waiting for the collector coin rally.

sellitstore

I would think that shows and auctions in China scheduled over the next few months will be bad for consignors and good for collectors, if they aren't cancelled. Stack's has Hong Kong auctions scheduled for March and August.

privatecoin

80? How many were born in China in the same time frame? How many died yesterday in a car accident? This is just a soap opera story by the media to stir things up.

cagcrisp

@1northcoin said:
"Stocks slumped around the globe on fears over the virus, with the S&P 500 Index sliding the most in almost four months. Bonds and gold rallied.

Deaths in China climbed to at least 80, the National Health Commission said Monday."

As reported on the PCGS website gold price has been fairly stagnant for the last week or two. Not sure what the media report is referencing as to "gold rallied." Could see money potentially being pulled out of the stock market if stocks continue to drop and that would potentially free up funds to become available for commodities including gold and silver as well as collector coins seen as investments.

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-27/u-s-says-no-new-coronavirus-cases-with-110-under-monitoring

“Not sure what the media report referencing as to “gold rallied”

Gold had the Highest close in 6+ years...That’s what the media is referring...

3stars

Same effect as the flu

BillDugan1959

The numbers of people infected so far are insignificant. You are talking a few thousand persons in a world with over 7.7 billion people. You are more likely to find a "W" mintmarked clad quarter.

Watch yes, fear no.

Boosibri

Counterfeiting shops taking a break?

oldUScoins

SARs was really scary (2003) - it had about a 10% mortality rate (compared to flu 0.1% or even the Spanish flu of 1918/19 which was 2%). However - they were able to contain it and it infected 8000 people world wide.

The mortality rate seems a lot lower for this virus - similar to flu perhaps although the data isn't in. Hopefully they will contain it and it will fizzle out.

Affects on coin collecting should be minimal.

Commencents

I highly doubt it will affect the hobby here in the U.S unless there's a pandemic where mail, coin shops, ebay, shows
etc slow down due to many people being sick,

No way I'm going to China, even if "Shanghaied" at a take out joint!

1northcoin

@cagcrisp said:

@1northcoin said:
"Stocks slumped around the globe on fears over the virus, with the S&P 500 Index sliding the most in almost four months. Bonds and gold rallied.

Deaths in China climbed to at least 80, the National Health Commission said Monday."

As reported on the PCGS website gold price has been fairly stagnant for the last week or two. Not sure what the media report is referencing as to "gold rallied." Could see money potentially being pulled out of the stock market if stocks continue to drop and that would potentially free up funds to become available for commodities including gold and silver as well as collector coins seen as investments.

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-27/u-s-says-no-new-coronavirus-cases-with-110-under-monitoring

“Not sure what the media report referencing as to “gold rallied”

Gold had the Highest close in 6+ years...That’s what the media is referring...

GOLD $1,552.40 (+5.80)

Thanks for advising. Looks like PCGS is not getting the latest reporting. The current pricing at $1552 on this PCGS website is at or near the same number it has been at for the last week or two. What should the correct number be?

Dentuck

I misread that as "the Coinosaurus from China" and got confused for a moment.

ms70

Coronavirus! Sell! Sell! Sell! The sky is falling!

cagcrisp

@1northcoin said:

@cagcrisp said:

@1northcoin said:
"Stocks slumped around the globe on fears over the virus, with the S&P 500 Index sliding the most in almost four months. Bonds and gold rallied.

Deaths in China climbed to at least 80, the National Health Commission said Monday."

As reported on the PCGS website gold price has been fairly stagnant for the last week or two. Not sure what the media report is referencing as to "gold rallied." Could see money potentially being pulled out of the stock market if stocks continue to drop and that would potentially free up funds to become available for commodities including gold and silver as well as collector coins seen as investments.

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-27/u-s-says-no-new-coronavirus-cases-with-110-under-monitoring

“Not sure what the media report referencing as to “gold rallied”

Gold had the Highest close in 6+ years...That’s what the media is referring...

GOLD $1,552.40 (+5.80)

Thanks for advising. Looks like PCGS is not getting the latest reporting. The current pricing at $1552 on this PCGS website is at or near the same number it has been at for the last week or two. What should the correct number be?

The Ask close price was $1,581.30...

Smudge

Media hype I hope. If it bleeds it leads.

derryb

Hopefully it will keep a lot of counterfeiters from going to their post office.

AUandAG

The odds of dying from this virus are worse than the odds of winning the lottery. It might slow some fake imports is about all. It's a cold virus that mutated and will die out quickly with the Spring. At least I hope it does not continue through to next winter...

bob

dpoole

The energy in this reaction is the uncertainty.

2ndCharter

Just stop drinking Mexican beer. Problem solved!

davewesen

current price can be found at kitco.com

ScarsdaleCoin

The issue of a new strain of a virus is actually what should worry folks. It’s actually quite a bit worse than what info is being released from China
Hopefully it won’t jump or mutate.

ricko

Take the prescribed precautions, avoid crowds and airports if possible...This too shall pass....Cheers, RickO

FullStrike

My hoard of 1913 Liberty Nickels probably went up about $10 or more.

Commencents

@2ndCharter said:
Just stop drinking Mexican beer. Problem solved!

On a serious note, antiviral surgical masks are becoming unavailable. I can't find any today, should have bought
some disposable ones last night for $3.60 apiece. Effective masks will probably out of stock for months to come.

Tom147

I work EMS. My supplier called me today asking if my service needs N-95 masks. Seems he's getting alot of orders FROM CHINA

Commencents

@Tom147 said:
I work EMS. My supplier called me today asking if my service needs N-95 masks. Seems he's getting alot of orders FROM CHINA

I can't find any antiviral surgical masks online today. Should have placed an order on ebay last night for 20 at $68.
All have become sold out or "Unavailable".

Is your supplier able to get any? Things could get dicey in the next couple of months.

BLUEJAYWAY

Each counterfeit coin purchased will now include a mask and sanitizing spray.

PBRat

Same effect as the flu

That has not been established yet.

Most people seem to calculate the Mortality Rate as Dead / Infected, which now stands at ~2% (= 132 / 6057). Add in the asymptomatic people, and it doesn't seem like a big deal. But, this equation fails to consider that some of the infected will eventually die.

Another way to look at the Mortality Rate is Dead / (Dead + Recovered), which is a scary 55% (= 132 / (132 + 110). We don't know if the infected will die, or recover. See https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 for the recovered numbers, which I haven't found anywhere else.

The real Mortality Rate is somewhere in between these two percentages.

yspsales

My poker buddy noted that the CDC was driving around town.... hopefully flu related.

Also (rumor) one or more Chinese traveler in isolation in Charleston, SC or somewhere nearby.

Could be just paranoia.

I just got through watching a documentary on the WWI. It mentioned the flu outbreak that devestated the US.

Part of the cause were troops being sent from base (Kansas for example) to the east coast on their way to France. Then carried over to France. Same with the movements of opposing armies.

Could have been lessened, but Pres. Wilson's advisors urged him to send needed troops rather than wait a month to send those fortunate to have already recovered.

It was enlightening yet now strangely prophetic.

BryceM

As an MD, I'm interested and will continue to monitor this, but I'm far from worried. We've been down this road many times before and with bugs that were much worse than this one seems to be.

If you want to worry about something pick heart disease. 650,000 die a year from this in the US and most of the risk factors are things we can modify....... yet most choose not to. Obesity, diabetes, blood pressure, activity, smoking, diet.........

We humans are strongly emotional creatures. The sudden onset of a virus captures our attention the same way a single airplane or helicopter wreck does. These make for big headlines, but in reality it diverts attention away from where it should be.

ShadyDave

@BryceM said:
As an MD, I'm interested and will continue to monitor this, but I'm far from worried. We've been down this road many times before and with bugs that were much worse than this one seems to be.

If you want to worry about something pick heart disease. 650,000 die a year from this in the US and most of the risk factors are things we can modify....... yet most choose not to. Obesity, diabetes, blood pressure, activity, smoking, diet.........

We humans are strongly emotional creatures. The sudden onset of a virus captures our attention the same way a single airplane or helicopter wreck does. These make for big headlines, but in reality it diverts attention away from where it should be.

The "news" stations would lose all of their advertisers if they actually reported on the top causes of death. McDonalds, General Mills, Budweiser, pharma companies wouldn't be happy. "If it bleeds, it leads"...

mannie gray

@privatecoin said:
80? How many were born in China in the same time frame? How many died yesterday in a car accident? This is just a soap opera story by the media to stir things up.

Agree.....and to get eyeballs....hence more advertising revenue.

ReadyFireAim

@PBRat said:
The real Mortality Rate is somewhere in between these two percentages.

rut ro

This "Kung-Flu" could be a high power "granny whacker" & guess who the majority of coin collectors are?

Hey you young numismatists...
You could make a fortune cornering the market as we drop like iguanas in Florida.

Cameonut

@ShadyDave said:

@BryceM said:
As an MD, I'm interested and will continue to monitor this, but I'm far from worried. We've been down this road many times before and with bugs that were much worse than this one seems to be.

If you want to worry about something pick heart disease. 650,000 die a year from this in the US and most of the risk factors are things we can modify....... yet most choose not to. Obesity, diabetes, blood pressure, activity, smoking, diet.........

We humans are strongly emotional creatures. The sudden onset of a virus captures our attention the same way a single airplane or helicopter wreck does. These make for big headlines, but in reality it diverts attention away from where it should be.

The "news" stations would lose all of their advertisers if they actually reported on the top causes of death. McDonalds, General Mills, Budweiser, pharma companies wouldn't be happy. "If it bleeds, it leads"...

That chart is reflective of how truly screwed up the NYT is - in our house they have zero credibility and we wouldn't even wrap fish guts in it.

dpoole

There's a difference between afflictions that people perceive to be (somewhat) within their power to influence/control, and those that they perceive to be beyond their control, like rampaging Mongols at the border.

One can at least believe that they can forestall cardiac problems and diabetes with diet and exercise, cancer by avoiding smoking and exposure to certain chemicals, auto fatality by buying cars with safety devices and by driving carefully, etc., and so buffer worry about a health crisis by such means.

One can't come to such a belief without clear information about a new virus, however.

Comparisons with infection/death rates by other causes, therefore, don't yet count for much.

Namvet69

I'm not gonna stop eating my favorite Chinese food. I gotta draw the line somewhere. Peace Roy

Musky1011

Kung Flu

MilesWaits

The party-crashing act of bringing up obesity, smoking and heart disease on a coin forum is a bold move.

Commencents

@2ndCharter said:
Just stop drinking Mexican beer. Problem solved!

........

Well I'll be...

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/people-seem-think-coronavirus-related-192841920.html?ncid=facebook_yahoolifes_ixks0smm1bi&fbclid=IwAR3U5V74F_XQmtHEut9g2NXkXmFlZndwv9_kTvbl8wvUgVXnUev9CvaIE3I

Justacommeman

We just got word that our China Office will not re open until 2/10. It was supposed to re open on 2/3 after Chinese New Year. This was by request of the Local Government.

m

ernie11

Please - one virus at a time. I am doing my best to dodge people with the flu virus right now.

1northcoin

Relevant to this thread are these photos I took last year from Mikimoto Pearl Island in Japan of the Cruise Ship Diamond Princess at anchor.

This week it is at anchor in Yokohama Bay with over 3,000 passengers and crewmen quarantined on board after 10 were taken off infected with the Coronavirus after journeying to Hong Kong. The quarantine is for 10 to 14 days and two subsequent sailings of the ship have been already cancelled as the ship remains afloat in the harbor under quarantine.

Unfortunately the passengers are confined to their cabins and unable to enjoy some of the amenities I photographed while on board the ship:

1northcoin

Edited to add. Now a day later an additional 10 passengers have tested positive and are being taken to Japanese hospitals.

Here is a current view as seen from the live bridge cam of the Diamond Princess as it remains moored in Yokohama Bay. The ship is expected to dock to take on food and supplies but will be returning to anchor off shore shortly thereafter.

Moxie15

"The Freedom for Animals Association on Second Avenue is the secret headquarters of the Army of the Twelve Monkeys. They're the ones who are gonna do it. I can't do anything more now. I have to go.
Have a merry Christmas."

BStrauss3

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Stork

@BStrauss3 said:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

And it's mind boggling how many people purposefully avoid the flu shot. I get it if you CAN'T take it, but geez.

And already reports of day cares 'requiring' doctor's notes to clear returning children from 'having corona virus' (insert biggest eyeroll emoji ever....because the test is being done by the CDC and pretty sure they aren't running them to satisfy some idiot at a day care).

Maybe just re-label the flu shot as a corona virus shot and people would be taking it (another eyeroll) because yes, some people are asking for a shot for the corona virus, but won't take a flu shot.

1northcoin

It would be nice if we really could analogize this epidemic with the influenza viruses we are more familiar with in recent history. Unfortunately though an alarming pattern is emerging with regard to numbers afflicted and percentage of consequent deaths. Already there are four times the deaths and if current trends continue we may be seeing ten times the number of deaths since the likelihood of an effective vaccine is at least a year away.

Here are some excerpts from a discussion making the point:

About 25k cases reported and 560 deaths so far which is over 2%. Compare that with regular flu which is about 0.05%. We have had about 13 million cases of flu and that number tends to go as high as 60 million in some years. With a 2% death rate, that would potentially lead to 1 mill deaths per year or more (vs the 10-50k deaths with the flu)

wouldn't it be more accurate to base the death rate on the date the most recent percent to die was diagnosed?

So, if the most recent person to die was diagnosed a week ago at which point the total number of diagnosed was approx 8,000, the death rate would be closer to 7%.

---

It has been pretty consistent at a bit more than 2% of the total diagnosed from when it first came out. Since there were about 1700 cases. Hope it does not go where you suggest as that is truly scary. I thought it would come down as more was known but so far it has not. And that is what I am concerned about. Keep hoping that we will find a lot of cases were not diagnosed so that the real death rate is closer to the traditional flu.

Here is a current view from the ship's live bridge web cam on the quarantined Diamond Princess as it remains moored in Yokohama Harbor now that the number of identified infected persons has increased to 20 - with those persons having been taken off the ship to nearby hospitals in Japan.

oldUScoins

From what I’ve read one of the keys is that it remains contained in one area. If another epicenter forms in a different part of the world it’s an indication it will spread everywhere. 2% mortality rate is high but it may actually be lower as it isn’t clear all the actual cases (less severe) are being counted.

dbldie55

My wife has the flu shot every year. Gets the flu every year too. I have never had one and never will.

ms70

@dbldie55 said:
My wife has the flu shot every year. Gets the flu every year too. I have never had one and never will.

That's me as well. I had the shot and got the flu last month. I'm done with the shots. Waste of time.