You mean this one? 30 minutes you still got time. Seems a bit high since #14 only got less than 15K. But then again I wish that was mine I would of been happy with 14K.
@segoja said:
150 coins is exactly 1/2 of 1% chance of getting a signed COA 150/30000*100 = .5%
That isn’t actually the correct probability. Directly calculating the probability of getting at least one of something is fairly complicated, so it is easier to calculate the probability of not getting any of them. To do this, you’d have to multiply the chance of NOT getting one (99.6666%) by itself for the number of coins you have. In this case, the probability of not getting any is 0.996666^150 = 0.60602 = 60.602%. This would correspond to a 39.398% chance of getting at least one (100.000% - 60.602% = 39.398%).
You can actually calculate the number of coins you’d have to buy to have a 50/50 chance of getting a signed COA (let X be that number of coins and ln be the natural logarithm):
0.996666^X = 0.5
ln(0.996666)^X = ln(0.5)
X * ln(0.996666) = ln(0.5)
X = ln(0.5) / ln(0.996666)
X = 207.556 (rounded to 208 for obvious reasons).
So, if someone wanted to have a 50/50 chance of getting a signed COA, they’d have to buy at least 208 coins.
Edit: to be more clear, the 0.5 in my calculation is a 50% chance of NOT getting a signed COA (so the chance of getting a signed COA would be 100% - 50% = 50%). So a more general formula for how many coins you would need to buy to assure a certain probability of getting a signed COA would be X = ln(1-C) / ln(29900/30000), where C is your desired probability of getting at least one signed COA.
Wow! Congrats! Where did you buy all yours? Were you buying here? Or ebay?
Now John, is that polite to ask? Hmm, I know, your just wondering if one of them was one you resold. It does make one wonder.
How rude are the folks @jwitten on CT. Pathetic. And you only did 15.
A few minutes left more stupid money? $3,200.00 with 74 people watching.
Where do you value the PCGS proof 70's? the 69's are somewhere near 2k from what I've seen. I think the cheapest around $1600. I did see an Anacs 70 for about $2300 and an ICG in the same range. NGC's are even in the $2600 range and they're 70's standards aren't as strict as evidenced by the comp numbers in their pop report. I'm thinking around 3k is about right. PCGS is not cranking out an inordinate amount of 70's so they should carry a premium. Just my opinion of course.
Coin #16 went higher than I expected, mine fell in the range I thought for #16 so I am happy.
While I have bought a several of these off these boards, I know exactly where this one came from and it was not from any online forum in case any forum members get curious.
Before it ships off I will get some good pics of it.
@Onedollarnohollar said:
$10,100 final..congrats to the winner. seems like a bargain after the 14k #16 pulled in.
yeah, lots of zero feedbacks. I haven't heard any horror stories of someone not getting their order fulfilled by a zero feedback seller, but I would be a little apprehensive. I'm priced out and will just settle for the one I got from the mint. expecting grading results back sometime this week.
another day of no new COA reports. unless I missed something? My eagle hasn't landed yet from PCGS grading process...the imagination can run wild sometimes...
@Onedollarnohollar said:
another day of no new COA reports. unless I missed something? My eagle hasn't landed yet from PCGS grading process...the imagination can run wild sometimes...
I know the feeling 6 days now stuck in Quality Control phase. Should be this week when they post grades and ship out. Course I said that last week. Probably spitting out thousands of them this week!
I'm 99.9% sure nobody returned one of these to the mint. Even the doggiest of the dogs would fetch a pretty nice return on the $65 investment. Those COA's are just as yet undiscovered to date
the Baltimore mint director sig. is it as valuable as the numbered ones in the mint sealed boxes? I don't know. all one had to do was stand in a line for awhile to get it where it was limited and numbered 1-100 (tougher odds to get one) through the mail. I guess we'll see what the public thinks while we watch this on Ebay.
the Baltimore mint director sig. is it as valuable as the numbered ones in the mint sealed boxes? I don't know. all one had to do was stand in a line for awhile to get it where it was limited and numbered 1-100 (tougher odds to get one) through the mail. I guess we'll see what the public thinks while we watch this on Ebay.
Also conveniently no mention that the actual COA number is 07092, yes I know it's right there in the picture but it should certainly be stated in this instance. Calling it #92 and stating signed COA in the title is disingenuous.
twiddling my thumbs today hoping to get my grading results and coa # . I only had one (happy I got that considering) and it's my first ever submission for grading. I'd better preoccupy myself with a book. It's like sitting in the pediatric waiting room until the doctor comes in and says "congratulations" .
you would have never gotten past PCGS' scrutiny of whether the boxes had been tampered with or not. good luck on your psychic prediction of #1 . If you somehow are wrong and you don't have it, would it be ok if I got it?
maybe bots aren't so bad once you get to know them. it is the 21st century after all.
another day without a grade or coa # to talk about. I know , be patient. It's difficult standing on the sidelines watching the game out on the field. put me in coach!
Great seller, cancelled on a couple of dealers first time he sold his enhanced reverse. Now it is 90k.
@BigA said:
2 is available from a crap feedback seller with 3 cancellations out of his feeble feedback number....but it is a #2 signed and at a bargain price
$90,000 opening bid and even at that it would be 'Reserve Not Met' offer. Watch - someone will throw a bid on it and then the seller will end up watching their auction expire without a bid above his reserve...
My guess he is hoping for a deal off eBay to avoid the fees
At that level the Ebay fees are not a factor. Paypal yes...but I'm not sure if you can do a transaction that big with Paypal. I'm well established with good credit and anything over 10K has to be done in multiple transactions through Paypal(limit was 10K). It's been awhile so I guess things could have changed.
Edit to add...If he gets a bite at that level I'm sure he would be willing to fly anywhere in the World at his expense to finalize the transaction!
@taxmad said:
$90,000 opening bid and even at that it would be 'Reserve Not Met' offer. Watch - someone will throw a bid on it and then the seller will end up watching their auction expire without a bid above his reserve...
My guess he is hoping for a deal off eBay to avoid the fees
Comments
Wow! Congrats! Where did you buy all yours? Were you buying here? Or ebay?
We ponied up
Ike Specialist
Finest Toned Ike I've Ever Seen, been looking since 1986
Congrats! With at least 152 coins, that would give you about at least a 39.8% chance of getting at least one signed COA, so you were doubly lucky!
150 coins is exactly 1/2 of 1% chance of getting a signed COA 150/30000*100 = .5%
Ike Specialist
Finest Toned Ike I've Ever Seen, been looking since 1986
mgk Posts: 7 ✭ December 7, 2019 6:00PM
00075 PCGS 70
ending in less than an hour...holding at 10k...last minute bidding war????
You mean this one?
30 minutes you still got time. Seems a bit high since #14 only got less than 15K. But then again I wish that was mine I would of been happy with 14K. 
That isn’t actually the correct probability. Directly calculating the probability of getting at least one of something is fairly complicated, so it is easier to calculate the probability of not getting any of them. To do this, you’d have to multiply the chance of NOT getting one (99.6666%) by itself for the number of coins you have. In this case, the probability of not getting any is 0.996666^150 = 0.60602 = 60.602%. This would correspond to a 39.398% chance of getting at least one (100.000% - 60.602% = 39.398%).
You can actually calculate the number of coins you’d have to buy to have a 50/50 chance of getting a signed COA (let X be that number of coins and ln be the natural logarithm):
0.996666^X = 0.5
ln(0.996666)^X = ln(0.5)
X * ln(0.996666) = ln(0.5)
X = ln(0.5) / ln(0.996666)
X = 207.556 (rounded to 208 for obvious reasons).
So, if someone wanted to have a 50/50 chance of getting a signed COA, they’d have to buy at least 208 coins.
Edit: to be more clear, the 0.5 in my calculation is a 50% chance of NOT getting a signed COA (so the chance of getting a signed COA would be 100% - 50% = 50%). So a more general formula for how many coins you would need to buy to assure a certain probability of getting a signed COA would be X = ln(1-C) / ln(29900/30000), where C is your desired probability of getting at least one signed COA.
Now John, is that polite to ask? Hmm, I know, your just wondering if one of them was one you resold. It does make one wonder.
How rude are the folks @jwitten on CT. Pathetic. And you only did 15.
I wonder if 48,000 is going to win the bid tonight? Less than 5
$10,100 final..congrats to the winner. seems like a bargain after the 14k #16 pulled in.
A few minutes left more stupid money? $3,200.00 with 74 people watching.
A few minutes left more stupid money? $3,200.00 with 74 people watching.
Where do you value the PCGS proof 70's? the 69's are somewhere near 2k from what I've seen. I think the cheapest around $1600. I did see an Anacs 70 for about $2300 and an ICG in the same range. NGC's are even in the $2600 range and they're 70's standards aren't as strict as evidenced by the comp numbers in their pop report. I'm thinking around 3k is about right. PCGS is not cranking out an inordinate amount of 70's so they should carry a premium. Just my opinion of course.
This is also a first day of issue which will be more rare than the first day of issue.
Hey!! That was mine, don't say Bargain!!
Coin #16 went higher than I expected, mine fell in the range I thought for #16 so I am happy.
While I have bought a several of these off these boards, I know exactly where this one came from and it was not from any online forum in case any forum members get curious.
Before it ships off I will get some good pics of it.
I just noticed the connection, lol. So you are coinzip! I sold 8 to you... now I'm wondering if I sold a signed one
lol Congrats again!
About 10 minutes left looks like an open box since it shows the coin box bid at $1550.00
Another zero feedback seller...guess there will be a lot of "0nes" after this event
yeah, lots of zero feedbacks. I haven't heard any horror stories of someone not getting their order fulfilled by a zero feedback seller, but I would be a little apprehensive. I'm priced out and will just settle for the one I got from the mint. expecting grading results back sometime this week.
another day of no new COA reports. unless I missed something? My eagle hasn't landed yet from PCGS grading process...the imagination can run wild sometimes...
I know the feeling 6 days now stuck in Quality Control phase. Should be this week when they post grades and ship out. Course I said that last week. Probably spitting out thousands of them this week!
Did the mint ever say that all the signed COA’s have been released? What if it got returned (non-delivery)? Think it will ever surface again?
I'm 99.9% sure nobody returned one of these to the mint. Even the doggiest of the dogs would fetch a pretty nice return on the $65 investment. Those COA's are just as yet undiscovered to date
Search for the thread of the guy here that had his returned to the mint. I said non-delivery 😉
https://www.ebay.com/itm/2019-S-Silver-Eagle-Enhanced-Reverse-Proof-PCGS-PR70-LOW-CERT-11-SIGNED-COA/124005417571?ssPageName=STRK:MEBIDX:IT&_trksid=p2060353.m1438.l2649
So #11 has hit the market...
Segoja purchased and submitted. Info on page 6.
"Segoja purchased and submitted. Info on page 6."
oh, ok, I was just pointing out it had been listed on ebay today. just in case anyone wanted to follow it (or buy it)
That was coinzip, the one who started off buying at $500 here. I ended up selling 8 to him... wonder if that was one of mine?? Good sale!
I wonder If I get a Loan from a Bank could I buy it?
But I think he already sold it.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/2019-S-Silver-Eagle-Enhanced-Reverse-Proof-PCGS-PR70-Baltimore-92-Signed-COA/303398071150?hash=item46a3ef2b6e:g:y0wAAOSwR-9d76av&LH_BIN=1
the Baltimore mint director sig. is it as valuable as the numbered ones in the mint sealed boxes? I don't know. all one had to do was stand in a line for awhile to get it where it was limited and numbered 1-100 (tougher odds to get one) through the mail. I guess we'll see what the public thinks while we watch this on Ebay.
Also conveniently no mention that the actual COA number is 07092, yes I know it's right there in the picture but it should certainly be stated in this instance. Calling it #92 and stating signed COA in the title is disingenuous.
Collector, occasional seller
there are some interesting listings with similar tricks being used to boost prices.
twiddling my thumbs today hoping to get my grading results and coa # . I only had one (happy I got that considering) and it's my first ever submission for grading. I'd better preoccupy myself with a book. It's like sitting in the pediatric waiting room until the doctor comes in and says "congratulations" .
#2 is available from a crap feedback seller with 3 cancellations out of his feeble feedback number....but it is a #2 signed and at a bargain price
https://ebay.com/itm/-/392582322846?hash=item5b67bada9e:g:lr8aaoswactd8rw9/
Edit...no clue why the font went huge on me...sorry
Where is #000001?
The LOL is for a starting bid of 90K with reserve not met!
I just got a shipping notice for my group of three......not that I checked the cert or anything. I just know #1 is in the box and MINE
"not that I checked the cert or anything"
you would have never gotten past PCGS' scrutiny of whether the boxes had been tampered with or not. good luck on your psychic prediction of #1 . If you somehow are wrong and you don't have it, would it be ok if I got it?
YOU DA MAN BIGA!!!!
I guess so......
I for one, always thinks positive.> @BigA said:
it's the "#" in front of number that made the front bigger.
Anyhow. this ebay seller also looks like a bot user
Nike Air Jordan 11 Bred XI 2019 Size 7.5 Black/Red Retro CONFIRMED (#392536401698)
maybe bots aren't so bad once you get to know them. it is the 21st century after all.
another day without a grade or coa # to talk about. I know , be patient. It's difficult standing on the sidelines watching the game out on the field. put me in coach!
Hang in there onefdollarnoholler!
Great seller, cancelled on a couple of dealers first time he sold his enhanced reverse. Now it is 90k.
https://ebay.com/itm/-/392582322846?hash=item5b67bada9e:g:lr8aaoswactd8rw9/
interesting and perhaps overly optimistic on this one. It is #00003 so obviously will get a premium in the end., but 90k?
If all first 100 end up for sale the market is going to be flooded.
Collector, occasional seller
if i had 90k id buy it
#84, 57, 8, 68 up for sale on ebay today...they're starting to show up in bunches now. BUT #1 still remains!
GOT ANY LINKS AND HOW MUCH THEY ASKING? I GOT MY CHECK BOOK OUT!
$90,000 opening bid and even at that it would be 'Reserve Not Met' offer. Watch - someone will throw a bid on it and then the seller will end up watching their auction expire without a bid above his reserve...
My guess he is hoping for a deal off eBay to avoid the fees
At that level the Ebay fees are not a factor. Paypal yes...but I'm not sure if you can do a transaction that big with Paypal. I'm well established with good credit and anything over 10K has to be done in multiple transactions through Paypal(limit was 10K). It's been awhile so I guess things could have changed.
Edit to add...If he gets a bite at that level I'm sure he would be willing to fly anywhere in the World at his expense to finalize the transaction!