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If you KNEW the entire coin market would drop by 50% over the next 5 years, would you....?
jmlanzaf
Posts: 31,997 ✭✭✭✭✭
Hypothetically...no need to debate the premise, unless you must.
If you KNEW the entire coin market would drop by 50% over the next 5 years, would you....?
This is a public poll: others will see what you voted for.
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A couple I may keep.
selling everything means I get to retire sooner or later
Sell everything now and don’t buy back until see upward bid value movement. Guy in coin club (victim of Houston oil price crash and then subsequent age bias in job search) sold off most of his to pay off / settle cc debt. One of them he owed $21 k on settled for 40c on Dollar. He is out of numismatic stuff but has a lot of silver and gold slabbed material near BV. Go Silver! He says.
Would take money from sell - use elsewhere. Probably 50 / 50 investment in my currency and bullion material inventory assuming outlook for numismatic coins weak but confidence in other 2. If a back or WR not performing in my CFC game I bench them and go w somebody else.
Who’s to say it won’t go down some more? Look at market after 89 crash or compare current to 2015 parameters.
Sell everything now, earn interest on the money, and then assemble an even better collection in 5 years.
I would keep everything... since I never plan to sell... the market is meaningless except for how much a coin costs me...Cheers, RickO
I would do what I always do, collect what interests me except that I would also sell less interesting things to better position myself for the fire sale.
Public polls aren't all that good.
Well just cause the market drops doesn't mean you could buy any PQ coins at the lower levels.
Look at Early Commems as an example values are down the good stuff isn't coming to the market at these levels and a majority of what's seen is crap.
Well... I'm not certain given those choices. There are a number I'd keep because coming across the same coins with the same eye appeal is not a simple task... the early copper I got from Tom Reynolds springs to mind. But then, I have a few that could be easily replaced... I'd likely sell those.
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I would sell the widgets and probably not buy most or any of them back. I'd be getting to old to start over.
One thing about down markets, is that the pickings are really slim on the good stuff until things really shake out. Some of the lower prices for good stuff are illusionary because there is very little to buy, and what there is might well be graded on loser standards that leave you in the same place before the "crash."
Ugh, another collector that collects coins based on what they hope they are going to be worth to SOMEONE Else SOMEDAY! Sounds daunting at best.
Yes. Coins seem to be the opposite of the stock market in that sense. When things start dropping, people stop selling. This is just anecdotal from my personal view. Everyone sells eventually though. You just need to be patient.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
I collect at this point in my pursuits. I suppose if the bottom falls out; I'll be able to pick up some of those keys at half the cost...maybe a bit lower if I can portray, and foretell an even glummer picture of the hobby.
I have known a lot of things that never happened.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
If I sold 99.9% of my stuff, I probably would buy back 10%, focused collecting, no more junk.
Why not sell now?
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
I'd sell ALL my widgets, which are easily replaceable.
I'd keep all the nice original stuff, which has taken me many years to locate.
Dave
The coin market varies like the weather. Sell the bad ones that are no longer exciting, purchase and keep the quality ones you like, then repeat.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
I’m reluctant to sell things that can’t be replaced.
Be thankful I have only 5 coins and it doesn't matter what happens.
Are you an alt for 291fifth?
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
@jmlanzaf, your last couple threads have been quite gloomy numismatic wise. Hope all is ok.
I have very few coins that I would refuse to sell if someone offered me double current levels. Those few coins are the ones I’d keep in the OP scenario.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Just taking the temperature. They say that you can tell when the stock market is going to tank when investors reach a level of complacency. I was curious as to whether anyone but me was concerned about price weakness in the market.
Good enough. i would split that into two categories such as grade specific condition rarities and clunky old bellwethers like clunky midgrade 1885-CC Morgan Dollars.
Probably a third category is the top tier 6 and 7 figure coins which are the bailiwick of the wealthy.
Not to prolong the discussion, but I think that is correct. I was trying to simplify. If you look at the stamp market, the 6 or 7 figure stamps still set records. Mid range clunky bellweathers are off 75 or 80% and the bottom tier is off 90+%, if you can even move them. I know "it's different" with coins, but it looks a lot the same to me.
I came into the market a bit over 15 years ago when the new registries set higher pop coins on fire. i saw the 32-S quarter in PCGS MS64 quickly jump from $1000 to $2000 (seems they are in the $650 range now.
So my benchmark is $1000 I suppose but i suspect that that was a dramatic rise since the advent of 3rd party grading.
Guess I could look it up but the fettucine is boiling over...
There wasn't a choice that fit me. I would keep what I got now and look forward to the supposed low prices 5 years from now.
I would say must be groundhog day and it's 2014 all over again.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
The ...end.... of any market slump is usually signalled by the "wall of worry."
Actually, the market has dropped 50% for many things I collect in the grade I collect them in the last five years. As I've written earlier, most material which is not extremely rare (and most of us could not afford back in the day in any event) from the post Large Cent era has dropped in value quite a bit in the last five years.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Presuming you COULD buy it all back five years from now when it is cheaper, it is really a no brainer. However, the stuff I collect comes along very infrequently. It is very unlikely I could locate half of the pieces I have now.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
It looks the same to me too. Most of the stuff I buy is at the same price or lower what it was 10 years ago. My price guide values have been stable, but increasing more slowly than inflation over the last 8 years. The market I play in has been weak for a while, and I don't see that changing. The floor isn't going to drop out or anything, it's just going to continue to be whatever this is.
The good news is that I can keep my budget the same every year and still be able to purchase as much, if not more, as I did the year before whilst my income slowly grows.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
This is true, I think. Frankly, I think it's a great time to COLLECT stamps. You can own all kinds of interesting things for 10% of what they cost 20 years ago. You just have to consider they may be worth 10% of that 20 years from now. LOL.
Sell. Well, I am selling now anyway. I don't have a crystal ball but everything says down, nothing says up.
In a coins life, 5 years isn't that long..
I'd save up money for some hopefully good buys
Where is the sell everything and never buy it back option?
If the prices drop in the next five years as they have in the last ten, collectors will increasingly be sending their coins to the smelter. That's definitely true for generic gold, but a lot of silver could follow suit.
It seems at today's lowe prices more and more rattier coins are appearing at auctions further dragging down prices as few are interested unless they can obtain them really cheap. Nice pieces seem to be harder and harder ro find and prices for the nicer pieces seems to be holding up or even rising. Jmho!
I am hoping for some sort of run up in silver prices in the next couple of years, and get rid of my junk-all of it!
Off like a prom dress.
I am, just not selling all, and buying only in the focus areas.
With the drops in recent months in Walkers, Dollars, Commems (major areas) many are disgusted, selling out. A 50 pct drop in near future may not be that far off the mark. Ok now class is over go play your little sticker game.
The saving grace in down market what u sell today u may be able buy cheaper in near future. I recall after 89 crash I was elated as many things I could buy that before could not afford.
I would sell all but four.
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