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2018-W ASE ...New key to the Burnished W's
BigA
Posts: 2,715 ✭✭✭✭
The 2018-W burnished went dark today at around 137,750 +/- which would make it the lowest mintage W of the ASE series and beating the previous low by around 40,000
I know there will be "lack of interest" comments but the facts are that a key is a key until it isn't... and I really don't think that another W will have numbers lower than this one....I guess we'll see.
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Nobody noticed that the 34-S Peace dollar was anything special until there weren't any, or at least very few in uncirculated condition. Future collectors will undoubtedly have interest in what we call moderns, and it's likely that certain issues will be both popular and scarce. However, it's tough to predict which ones will acquire numismatic interest, especially in coins that don't circulate.
The '95W Ase is still the major key to the series.... at 30,125 the lowest mintage....Cheers, RickO
It wasn't in 1995
@djm... I have no idea what you mean....The 1995W ASE is the key to the series....and it was in '95. Cheers, RickO
Really, In 1995 nobody wanted that coin that's why they only sold 30K+ no where near the maximum allowed mintage. The silver coin was sold for next nothing, the only interest was in the 4 gold coins. In 1995 collectors only wanted / needed 1 proof coin. That was the 1995-P. If I had thought that coin would be worth anything I would have bought sets in 1995. None of the dealers I frequented in 1995 bought any of the Anniversary Sets.
Both are saying the same thing from different view points.
Summerized:
“It is a key because nobody wanted it back in 1995.”
@ricko @djm
You both are saying the same thing from different view points.
“It is a key because nobody wanted it in 1995.”
Had a chance to purchase a couple of proof sets in 1995, passed on it !!!
In 1995, Philip Diehl decided to fleece as many ASE Proof collectors as possible by inducing them to shell out $1000 for the 5-coin set, instead of allowing them to buy the Proof 95-W ASE for the going rate, which had only been $23 for the Mint-issued Proof ASEs at the time.
That's a lot different than collectors having "no interest" in the coin. The gold coins were only of interest to those who could afford them, and in 1995 there weren't as many ASE collectors who wanted to part with $1000, just to turn around and sell the gold coins in order to obtain the proof ASE. I was one of them.
I wrote a couple of editorials that were published in Coin World to protest Diehl's heavy-handed treatment of ASE collectors. It didn't matter to the big boys at the Mint. That's when I stopped buying 15 proof ASEs every year as a potential investment for retirement.
I knew it would happen.
@jmski52 That is good information to know. Thanks for the information!
The 95-W is the key of the proofs...and I totally agree that "no interest" is TOTALLY different than no interest in forking over a grand for a set
As mentioned above, the 2018 W is now the key of the burnished W series....by a lot
Edit: I did change the title of the thread to be more appropriate
At the time, it was pretty obvious that the coin would become a key. I was so disgusted with the Mint back then. The coin went to about $1000 within a couple years, and then it hovered there for maybe 10 years before taking off and going to $3000. In the past 10 years, I believe that it's backed off a bit.
When Eric J published his book around 2006-7 touting the acquisition of modern keys, my attitude had already changed such that when the Mint decided to produce another "instant rarity", I would try to capitalize on it, unlike what I did in 1995. Since 2006, that strategy has produced mixed results for me, with some successes and a few duds, just like many other investment strategies do.
I still believe in low mintage Moderns as an approach with reasonable potential. As far as the 1995-W Proof ASE, I do think that 30,125 is a pretty high number for a modern key - but the strength of its pricing over time simply reveals the size of the collector base for ASEs - which is most likely one of the largest coin collecting segments right now.
I knew it would happen.
I was looking through Eric's book just last night. Some of his predictions have languished, but let me tell you - his methodology and analysis work is very good stuff. Still work the read, and it would be a real benefit to see an update someday. Just sayin'.
I knew it would happen.
@BigA, can you please post the mintages of the prior burnished W eagles?
silver eagle mintages
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I saw it it a previous ASE post....I will look for it
Edit: this was posted by another person last year....burnished numbers only
2012 - 226,120
2013 - 221,981
2014 - 253,169
2015 - 223,879
2016 - 216,501
2017 - 176,565
Likely making 2019 the key to the series... at least until 2020.
Not if they follow the pattern of the bullion eagles (45% year over year in Jan/Feb).
With the profusion of Mint issues in recent years, we have some remarkably low mintages. The First Spouse and the Platinum proof series, for example, had abundant dates with mintages under 2,000, and we have seen a drop-off in production for recent commemoratives as well.
In 1995, a singularly low modern mintage (relatively speaking) was an anomaly, and the ASE was a popular, well-known item. My sense is that such excitement about low mintages is not nearly so wide-spread now.
Once upon a time, I did chase low-mintage modern items thinking that they'd be safe for eventual re-sell, if it came to that. My experience is that such items have lost considerable appeal, and have suffered commensurate price drops. Consequently, I no longer concern myself very much with them.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
I'm not sure I could extrapolate bullion purchases to anything with a numismatic premium. But time will tell...
the profusion of Mint issues in recent years
And there you have it. Once, 30,125 was a small number. Now, not so much - especially in light of the demographics.
I do believe that coinage and coin collecting will eventually experience a resurgence - in the area of precious metal bullion coins that are produced as an alternative for wealth preservation - the question is "when?"
I knew it would happen.
Bullion is not coin collecting. It's bullion. Huge amounts are traded daily. That doesn't correspond to an increase in numismatic material
I wish there was more interest in the burnished ASE's. I bought a bunch of the 06's from the USMint, still have too many.
For reference: the 2006 W has a mintage of 466,573 vs the 2018-W at less than 138,000
Bullion is not coin collecting. It's bullion. Huge amounts are traded daily. That doesn't correspond to an increase in numismatic material
Uh, this thread is about ASEs, which are precious metal bullion coins some of which (the burnished and proofs) are also considered "collector bullion" by the mint that issues them.
I'm sure you'll want to argue the point.
I knew it would happen.
The burnished ASEs sell for a large premium over melt. They are not traded as bullion. If by "precious metal bullion" you meant to say "ASE", I'll accept the correction. But proof or burnished ASEs are NOT bullion. Now, if the numismatic premium disappears they could become bullion (like 63 Saints), but as long as they are "collected" and sell for a premium...sorry, NOT bullion.
In my ever humble opinion.
Personally, the premium on regular ASEs is so steep, I wouldn't even buy those as bullion. A $2 to $3 per ounce premium on a $15-$16 chunk of silver is too steep to make it tradeable as bullion. But those are technically "bullion", just an expensive way to buy it.
Those who collect bullion coins would rightfully disagree with you.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Isn't the 95w mintage low because to get one you had to buy the entire gold set? Edit to say @ jmiski52 already said it.
Depends on what you mean by "bullion coins". If you are talking about coins made of bullion, sure. If you are talking about bullion in coin shape, it is arguable.
If someone buys 500 ounces of silver in 1 oz Canadian maple leafs because he wants a position in bullion, is that different than someone buying 500 1 oz Johnson-Matthey bars? Is the first one a "coin collector" and the second one a "bullion investor?
But I don't want to debate the semantics. My point was that increased "bullion" sales does not automatically translate into a "coin" market recovery. Look at 63 Saints, for example. They had a $50 premium when gold was $500 per ounce. They have a $25 premium when gold is $1300 per ounce.
Bullion does not equate to collector coins of the same purity...collector coins are just that...collector coins of a MUCH lower mintage,,,hundreds of thousands vs. 10's of millions.
Precious metal collectors buy bullion coins as a pure metal play....mintage is totally irrelevant.
There certainly has been a decreased demand for the burnished ASEs. 2017 was very low mintage as well and prices have not reflected that. In fact, Patriotic Mint is still selling them below Mint price. They also have plenty of 2018w's just below Mint price as well for anyone wanting some.
Some of the early 1/2 AGEs have substantial premiums, as do many of the early Unc Plats in MS-70. Substantial premiums. They may be bullion coins, but they are highly sought after as evidenced by the premiums. Mintages for bullion coins do matter, as does distribution, as does the grade.
I knew it would happen.
@jmski52
The mention of AGE reminded me of the $5 1999-W struck on the unfinshed PF dies. A bit of premium for 1/10 oz of gold.
I believe many of the older ms 1/2 AGE and platinum issues are priced high is that imo, many did not survive the big run-up in bullion prices as many later ones minted since have lower mintages. Along comes slabbing these and combined with registry mania and few coins available, prices on some of these earlier ms pieces took off and still remain high.
The MS70 bullion premiums would be a little bit lower, if you would please try not to bid so much to acquire them.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
Precious Metal Products
18EG
2018 AM EAGLE SILVER UNC 1 OZ
138964
03/10/2019
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1016494/multiple-posts-on-march-18-2019-2-39pm
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And the 2018W is now the key "burnish" ...well, because the US Mint overpriced it...so no one wanted it...
Precious Metal Products
18EG
2018 AM EAGLE SILVER UNC 1 OZ
138966
03/17/2019
But now back in stock! - 1,076 left.
Precious Metal Products
18EG
2018 AM EAGLE SILVER UNC 1 OZ
137998
03/24/2019
Still in stock! - 943 left.
Quoth the riddler "when is a key not a key????"
tune in next week , same bat time , same bat channel!!!!
I think the answer was never if its a modern , not a riddle so much as a warning
How 'bout the 2008 with the 2007 Reverse Burnished eagle?
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.That would be a die variant of the 2008 W. That one was a great find and fun accumulating...
Precious Metal Products
18EG
2018 AM EAGLE SILVER UNC 1 OZ
138127
03/31/2019
Still in stock! - 793 left.
Now:
Just curious...how can the total 2 weeks ago be 138,966 + 1076 (140,042) and this week be 138127 + 793 (138,920)
So the final number is right around where we thought it would be and the 1000 extra was a figment of Mint imagination. Only thing I can think of tis that there was a big order cancellation that didn't show in the original number reported (139k-) ) and then was adjusted back
Still the key and by almost the exact same difference....
Perfect example of Mint math
Yup too expensive and no appeal. If there is any value to it , its that it might put a few flippers out of business.
Precious Metal Products
18EG
2018 AM EAGLE SILVER UNC 1 OZ
138217
04/07/2019
Still in stock! - 630 left.