is it a no-brainer that coin (prices) are destined to markedly decline over the next 20 years?
WingedLiberty1957
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Just curious what you all think.
Seems to me that the majority of coin collectors today are over 60 -- being drawn into this fun hobby in the golden age of coin collecting in the 1950's and 1960's. I agree that there are some younger collectors, under 40, under 30, and even under 20 -- but I am guessing they make up no more than 10% to maybe 20% max of the coin collecting base. Most kids today are just not drawn into coin collecting in the same way the boomers were. So given the demographics, it just seems to me in 20 to 30 years when most of the 60+ generation has kicked the bucket -- it would seem logical that demand will fall off a cliff -- and today's prices might seem astronomical by comparison. I suppose if prices fall far enough, there could be a renewed interest as coins could become a really cheap hobby at that point -- but Its hard to imagine things ever recovering fully (based on today's prices).
I suppose that most 60+ people might think, who cares, I'll be dead -- but doesn't it seem like prices will just continue to soften as we all continue to die off?
Not the most cheery of thoughts. Sorry!
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Prices are soft when I try to sell any and the prices are stiff and no lack of competition to get them.
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Back in the 1960's when I was a teen my father and I belonged to a fairly large coin club. Most of the members were in their 50's, 60's and older. That was over 50 years ago and nothing has really changed.
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Back in the 1960's when I was a teen my father and I belonged to a fairly large coin club. Most of the members were in their 50's, 60's and older. That was over 50 years ago and nothing has really changed.
+1 - I went to my first coin show in 1965 and was the only teenager on the bourse floor. Several of the dealers commented that it was nice to see a kid looking to buy. Everybody else looked to be as old as my grandfather (my age now).
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compared to a lot of other "pass time" activities our Hobby tends to be expensive, continuous and maturing at a later time than most others. it doesn't seem to be a casual undertaking. if you really enjoy Coin Collecting it develops into a lifelong avocation which is why the numbers are so small. I don't see it as unusual for someone in their late 30's or early 40's entering the Hobby at a time when many responsibilities are lessening and time/attention is increasing. that is also a time when more money is available for non-essential things.
if I'm remembering correctly, there have been other 10-15 year slowdowns in the past but things always rebounded stronger than before. I don't know what has you worried or wondering, my hunch is that prices have fallen a little since around 2012. here's my read on that --- the overall market was up so much from 1999-2012 that it was unsustainable any longer. everyone partied like rock-stars with no thought of the eventual hangover.
if things are cheap now, buy. if your collection is losing value keep what is the best and sell everything else.
Shorten that to "keep all the best." Collectors are getting more selective.
If this be true and where it was located were known. I think this is the most inspiring answer I have seen in a long time, as this question comes up often enough.
On the other hand there is a lot of nice coins around if we wait for them and all the guys I know over 50 or 60 don't plan on leaving the hobby or earth, ever for that matter.
On the other hand it's inevitable that the collectors and collections pass on. I showed my Son (32) an Isabella, he lives in Chicago and he thought it so cool, with the 1892 expo story.
On the other hand when he was 12 I showed him the difference between type 1 and type 2 Slq's and he ran out the door.
On the other hand no one can know the future of this "hobby"
What I need in a one handed numismatist.
You need only look at the NUMBER of members of the coin clubs, national and regional. It has always been a somewhat older person's hobby, but the sheer number of club members is significantly lower.
And, as always, I point you to the stamp market and stamp hobby.
A big destructive action for in the "Stamp Hobby" was Ronald Reagan and his Economic Bill of Rights which kicked/prohibited collectibles specifically "stamp hobbies" from having holdings in Keogh's and IRAs. Which if you ask me was a good idea.
The bigger issue is the drop in collectors. APS membership went from 100,000 to 30,000 post 1989. And with any collectible, a drop in the number of collectors is two problems: one less buyer and one more (estate) seller.
It is preposterous to try and predict the next twenty years in coins.
You might get an imperfect idea about the next five to eight years, if you are very very smart.
Remember what the late, great Yogi once said (and be humble).
The coin collectors of the future will be fewer in number but very dedicated to the hobby as a hobby ... not as an "investment". They will also be very selective in what they are interested in putting into their collections. Much of today's "collector" material will have little or no collector demand twenty years from now.
If your coins are common or "ordinary" this is probably the time to sell. You don't want to be one left holding this type of material in 2039.
I think the best coins will always fetch strong prices ($10,000+). I think coins that have prices tied to bullion prices will as well. Where I’d be concerned is paying a lot for everything else.
Its not the age, the numbers of coins or the number of collectors. Its the simple lack of disposable income and a loss of a large middle class. We are supposedly on one of the biggest economic booms right now, with prices soft - wheres the hot market ?? Just saying.
WS
One good promotion and price manipulation and we're off to the races. Hey maybe a new grading system
Ah the doom and gloom thread... Seems we get one or two a week...And yet, coins are being bought and sold, coin shows are, for the most part, busy...The internet has lots of coin sites and business seems brisk. Prices are not cheap by any means....I have not seen any bargains in a long time.... Cheers, RickO
Try selling and you will find out how "hot" the market really is. I have been in the market selling twice in the past year and I can say from experience that the market is not "hot". If you are trying to sell modern proof sets you will find the market colder than the outer reaches of the solar system.
Too many rare coins available for purchase certainly doesn't help with strong coin prices.
Whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted with important matters.
Saying that old saw 'I have never sold a coin' simply means that you still own every mistake you ever made. Leon Hendrickson told me that more than once, both individually and as part of a larger group.
I don’t think in-person coin clubs are a fully accurate measure in the Internet age. It’s important to look at Internet communities. For example, I think the Knights of the Coin Table are growing each year.
That being said overall membership in offline and online may also be decreasing.
For everything else, I can still have fun not paying a lot
I didn’t get to go to many coin shows when I was a teenager because I lived in a remote area where there was little cultural stimulation. I did go to a show in Salisbury, Maryland that had perhaps 10 to 20 tables. There were no other people as young as I was there.
I also went to a coin and stamp club meeting one time in the mid 1960s. As it turned out, they were all stamp collectors. They seemed to be more interested in the various forms of “Mr. Zip” (code) who appeared on the margins of sheets of stamps than anything else. As a coin collector, I was outlier. They were all retirement age or close to it.
I also recall that there were very few young people at Gimbels coin counter and at the varies stores I visits when I went to Philadelphia. So, yes, you do have a point when you say that this not been a young person’s hobby.
Last year, I placed an ad in the local newspaper to get feed back on starting a coin club for the area. I got zero replies. The closest club is a 4 hour drive. Also found out that I am the only ANA member in the surrounding four counties. Pretty lonely.
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My closest club is like 1 hour away and they have their meetings on week nights. I considered going after work but may not be able to schedule it in until I retire. This is why I like online clubs right now.
Of course if a lot of people wait till they retire to join an in-person club, it’s only natural that the membership will be older.
I am totally into coins and yet I have never been to a BM coin club meeting.
This right here is my coin club. I am meeting with you all right now.
The internet is extremely powerful.
Coin collecting will always be popular.
I think coins that are difficult to find and impossible to make more of will continue to appreciate in value.
Coins that are increasingly common and easy to manufacture, and suffers zero attrition, such as modern NCLT, custom "fantasy" items, and colorful common toned coins will decline under the sheer numbers of them versus collector demand.
Attempts to make coins "interesting " with fancy holders and labels will also eventually backfire.
If pre-1815 US type coins decline, though, i will not be alone backing up the truck and filling tough holes. Problem-free 1793 copper, 1796 silver and 1795 gold never seems to go "on sale"..
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Great comments. I guess it is hard to imagine what things will look like in the years from 2040 to 2050. I imagine circulating coins and paper currency will probably be a thing of the past. Everything will be digital.
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The citizens of the United States have the power to insist that we do not go cashless by voting for a representative government that has our best interests in mind.
The American Public will never allow a cashless society, IMO.
Economics 101.............Supply can create demand...........period.
This is somewhat off topic, but it does infuriate me when some here brag that they have never sold a coin.
If that is the case, then very simply your collection is not nearly as good as it could be. Take a roll of something or a few of something else. Buy one better coin. Boom! Your set is better.
Personally, I don't think the collector base perceived shrinkage will be that much of an issue. Coins are history and little pieces of art. They are collectable and just the sheer momentum of the industry will keep it going for decades into the future with no collapse.
What I think could hurt segments of the hobby or the overall market:
1) Internet transaction costs - The internet got me into the hobby because it made coins so accessible, but the transaction costs are rising and have risen a lot when one factors in the churn of buying and selling (not for profit, but just to move coins no longer wanted). Obviously coin shows do not have this dynamic as much. Ebay used to be perfect as it took out the middle-man like never before in the history of the hobby. This allowed collectors to buy and sell with almost no transaction costs. Ahhh, the good ol' days.
2) Sales tax. More and more states are looking to capture revenues from internet sales and business sales in general. Sales tax adds a huge burden. If you are a collector, like myself, you buy and then sell coins as tastes change, collection goals change etc. Too many transaction costs and this goes bye bye. Some states may never tax collectible coins, but many more probably will in the future.
3) Integrity in the marketplace. TPGS have added a lot of integrity to the markt place, but it has also some downsides. The very nature of the TPGs is that gradeflation must occur to stay in business. Sort of like the fed inflation target of 2%. Grade flation hurts the integrity of the market place. How much so remains to be seen.
This is what could kill the hobby: Buying 10K worth of coins and then going to sell them and getting 5K. This happens to newbies and uninformed beginners, but when it happens to seasoned collectors. Well then, you have problems.
Tyler
I don't think we'll see a cashless society in the next 2 or 3 decades, but the decline of physical money is irreversible. Younger people today are all about online commerce and, when visiting a B&M store, payment with their phones. The ongoing decline in the interest in and need for physical money can't but cause the base of likely new collectors to decline. Nothing precipitous, just steady erosion.
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It's not a "No Brainer" as a matter of fact it's quite complex and just another one of the things in this economy that is suffering from the 2008 "kick the can down the road" recession.
The US Mint did a great job in 1999 bringing us the "States Quarters" at 50 coin it should have stopped, perhaps went onto 50 half dollars with different themes. _a supply option _
Supply option; We the numismatic community have to market this "hobby" differently. More History, more Art, more Culture and more Education. How about one, just one sign or display at a National Historical site (all sites) showing a connection with coins and history?
The way it's sold now (the supply side) is "gee how much is that worth? ) That's what's killing it.
What hobby gives you some if not all of your money back one day? Experience America thorough coins, It's history, art, culture.
When was the last time the currency was changed and showed an historical scene? The two dollar bill? How about all of them and all the reverses on coins? ................Supply can create demand "Jean Baptiste Say"
I would say that the market is bi-furcated to rare pieces with demand and those with little or decreasing demand.
It's a no brainer that rare coins with demand will likely continue to go up!
Romans collected Greek coins. Forty years ago I was a teenager, buying and selling coins, and heard the same thoughts. Then every year after. Market has went up and down repeatedly since. I predict that wont stop. -)
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Perhaps when (if) physical money is replaced with electronic or digital currency and blockchain/cryptocurrencies are (better) regulated there will be a greater demand to hoard/collect coins.
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~Wayne
Powerful individuals and corporations stand to make very, very big money if we go cashless. Beware.
I think that one identifies with what they grew up with and what they had or wanted. Was a time when Model T's and Model A's brought good money. That generation has passed on and cars of the 50'and 60's are hot now. Dont know if there is any correlation.
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Gradeflation has taken a meat ax to coin prices of everything made from the mid 19th century forward that was perceived to be conditionally scarce.
The other thing that influences pricing is demand, and its twin, marketing. Typically, if something is hyped enough, enough people will buy, making it a nice payday for the marketers.
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Recreational collecting as a hobby is a lot less competitive than it used to be due to the increased alternatives, including those you listed.
Economics doesn't matter much to the price level in most countries but it does in the US where the collector base is much larger. To my knowledge, it is also overwhelmingly concentrated in one demographic group, Caucasian males. According to US Census, it is projected to shrink noticeably longer term. Participation rate by other groups is much lower but even where it is noticeable and if it increases materially, the cultural affinity for US coinage is almost certain to be much lower.
The internet has made most US coins a lot less competitive than it was a generation or two ago. The cheaper and lower quality stuff must have been substantially displaced by (world) NCLT and to a lesser extent by world and ancients. The more expensive better quality material is still mostly common and overpriced for it's relative merits.
There is no reason to believe most collectors really like what they buy enough to pay any meaningful price if it is losing value, especially if it's something they can buy on demand or short notice. Most would rather wait.
Most coins which most US collectors call rare are not. Most of this stuff isn't even scarce.
Gold and silver will presumably increase noticeably within 20 years benefitting NCLT and "investment" quality Morgan dollars, much or most US classic gold and maybe Peace dollars.
Other coins predominantly bought with a financial motive or whose price makes it evident financial considerations are important are likely to be impacted by substantially different financial conditions versus the last 35 years. We have lived through the loosest financial conditions in the history of civilization. I expect most coins to lose value adjusted for price changes from this reason alone.
Yes, but I'm talking about rare coins, not so-called rare coins
When I think rare, I think of years or decades before another example will become available, if there even is another example.
To say nothing about the government which will have far more data with which to play the role of “big brother.”
I'm not sure we can infer directly from declining club membership alone that there are fewer collectors. The Internet has made in-person club membership less relevant in lots of areas. For instance, I'm an avid hiker, and winter hiker in particular. Organized club trips had much better turnout in the 1980's than they do now, but I can tell you firsthand there are 10 or 20 times the number of people on the trails in the wintertime than there were back then. They tend also to be better equipped, more ambitious, and often better conditioned and more knowledgeable than the hikers I used to see 30 years ago, too. You don't need a club anymore to find people to go with, or what conditions are like this week on trail X, Y, or Z. Similarly, you can talk with coin collectors all day long right here without ever making it to a club meeting.
For the spirit of the hobby, I have gotten my wife, my 8 yr old son, and 3 yr old daughter into collecting. I teach them that it is not all about shiny and pretty, but that the older, more worn coins have a story to tell....the history of our country. It has taken them by storm, and I am very happy to say we are doing our part to keep it alive.
I was just in a B&M and a father came in to introduce his son to coins. It was nice to see.
@Zoins That is awesome, at my local shop I see a father and son every now and again, but it is usually people trying to sell off junk. There are very few serious collectors around my area, and that is a shame. I try to promote the hobby as much as possible.
I think most of you are looking at coins and the market though yesterday's dynamic. Most coin buyers never stop by a coin shop. They don't attend shows. They don't go to coin club meetings. They are on-line and buying on-line. I see it clearly and I see that there is a growing trend in the hobby on-line.
Prices may fall, but not because of lack of demand, More because of frictionless selling. Buyers want a great deal and they will hunt out that deal. They may learn that the best coins within a certain grade are usually the more expensive, but that comes only from experience. This is what makes a market and for prices to rise it takes more buyers becoming more quality-conscious, rather than price-conscious.
Rick, the problem with paying a strong premium for a nice for the grade coin is that a collector will not be able to upgrade the coin, nor will he be able to get said premium back when he sells it, unless the coin costs a fortune AND it is indeed a rare coin. Over 90% of what is available for sale is not truly rare, and what is genuinely rare is affordable to a select few.
If a five figure coin is readily available, like a 16 SLQ in virtually any grade, it is not a rare coin in my eyes.
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"Sou Mangueira......."
I thought things were slowing down in 1998, then Ebay hit and the state quarters program hit......Boom the hobby was energized.. I think this will happen again..I just done when..