Did the system collapse? One more day to find out!

“This is sure to happen anytime between now and the end of 2018.”
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http://didthesystemcollapse.com


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Comments

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,145 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2018 6:03AM

    Sure makes the gold bugs sound sane and reasonable.

    Hmmmm...they gladly accept dollars for their "service" but not yuan.

    Master of Puppets----AKA The Boogeyman.
    "Troll"er of Mis-information and Lies
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • OPAOPA Posts: 15,217 ✭✭✭✭

    ????? WTF?

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • tneigtneig Posts: 1,451 ✭✭✭

    There was a time I would have looked at this stuff.

    COA
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭✭

    I love the "Mother of All Safe Havens" line!

  • FSFFSF Posts: 280 ✭✭✭

    The sad part is that there are obviously members on this forum who eat this stuff up and treat it like it's holy grail.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,068 ✭✭✭✭✭

    There is no holy grail, and the markets are manipulated. Carry on.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • FSFFSF Posts: 280 ✭✭✭

    Everything in the world is manipulated in some fashion, including every human relationship. If that's news to you, I hope you're very young.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,068 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2018 11:00AM

    Where's this sarcasm coming from? What do YOU think will be the fallout from $22 trillion in (official) debt and rising rates?

    Let us in on your insight. Add to the knowledge base here.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • FSFFSF Posts: 280 ✭✭✭

    You should ask yourself about the sarcasm. As for the fallout, I have my own opinions on that but I don't feel like writing an economic thesis to explain them and who can accurately predict the future, let alone the timing of it.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,068 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2018 11:05AM

    You should ask yourself about the sarcasm. As for the fallout, I have my own opinions on that but I don't feel like writing an economic thesis to explain them and who can accurately predict the future, let alone the timing of it.

    That being the case, you have no ground to stand on and no basis for your criticisms.

    Your reference to the holy grail and precious metals advocates was just cynical and provocative, for no reason.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭✭

    @FSF said:
    The sad part is that there are obviously members on this forum who eat this stuff up and treat it like it's holy grail.

    There are many sad things in the world. This is not one of them. Not even close.

  • FSFFSF Posts: 280 ✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    You should ask yourself about the sarcasm. As for the fallout, I have my own opinions on that but I don't feel like writing an economic thesis to explain them and who can accurately predict the future, let alone the timing of it.

    That being the case, you have no ground to stand on and no basis for your criticisms.

    What "criticisms" are you even referring to?

  • derrybderryb Posts: 26,096 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2018 11:10AM

    collapse is a process, not an event. The camel's back can take one more straw. . . until it can't. The 22 trillion straws are gaining weight.

    Gold is the money of kings. Silver is the money of gentlemen. Barter is the money of peasants. And debt is the money of slaves.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,068 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2018 11:08AM

    What "criticisms" are you even referring to?

    Your cynical remark is an attempt to marginalize the opinions that differ from yours, and you decided not to back it up with fact or reason. That's what I'm referring to.

    Oh, and I'm (probably) older than you. :)

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • FSFFSF Posts: 280 ✭✭✭

    @VanHalen said:

    @FSF said:
    The sad part is that there are obviously members on this forum who eat this stuff up and treat it like it's holy grail.

    There are many sad things in the world. This is not one of them. Not even close.

    You're taking the comment way more seriously than need be. Regardless, the sad part is not that people may believe in the sanctity of precious metals or whatever, it's that they would religiously read knuckle-headed viewpoints from people who have clear agendas, often times being the notion of trying to sell people something. For example, the link that the OP provided.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 26,096 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2018 11:13AM

    Everyone is selling something, from WMDs to PMs. LOL

    Gold is the money of kings. Silver is the money of gentlemen. Barter is the money of peasants. And debt is the money of slaves.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,068 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2018 11:15AM

    tut, tut - look who's making religiously-stated viewpoints (without backup) for what he's saying.

    What's YOUR agenda? Defending your own decisions to own stocks? You've been on this forum making these types of comments for awhile now. Let's hear your reasoning.

    Rising rates will compete with the ability of those companies to make a competitive IRR. Let's hear your reasoning...………..I'm interested in learning.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 20,605 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    collapse is a process, not an event. The camel's back can take one more straw. . . until it can't. The 22 trillion straws are gaining weight.

    That's what They said at 1, 5, 10, 15, 20 trillion, and every straw in between. And what they'll be saying at 25, 30, 50, 100... long after everyone reading this is gone.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • FSFFSF Posts: 280 ✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    What "criticisms" are you even referring to?

    Your cynical remark is an attempt to marginalize the opinions that differ from yours, and you decided not to back it up with fact or reason. That's what I'm referring to.

    Oh, and I'm (probably) older than you. :)

    So now it's a cynical remark and not a "criticism". I'll buy that as I'm not trying to get personal. But reading your posts on this forum, you seem to have a perpetual tendency to "marginalize" and make "cynical remarks" about viewpoints that aren't your's so who's really being cynical here?

  • derrybderryb Posts: 26,096 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Baley said:

    @derryb said:
    collapse is a process, not an event. The camel's back can take one more straw. . . until it can't. The 22 trillion straws are gaining weight.

    That's what They said at 1, 5, 10, 15, 20 trillion, and every straw in between. And what they'll be saying at 25, 30, 50, 100... long after everyone reading this is gone.

    Goody. Another fortune teller.

    Gold is the money of kings. Silver is the money of gentlemen. Barter is the money of peasants. And debt is the money of slaves.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,068 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2018 11:18AM

    I'll buy that as I'm not trying to get personal.

    But, you did. Let's hear your reasoning, if you are so sure of your opinions.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • FSFFSF Posts: 280 ✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:

    tut, tut - look who's making religiously-stated viewpoints (without backup) for what he's saying.

    What's YOUR agenda? Defending your own decisions to own stocks? You've been on this forum making these types of comments for awhile now. Let's hear your reasoning.

    Rising rates will compete with the ability of those companies to make a competitive IRR. Let's hear your reasoning...………..I'm interested in learning.

    I don't own stocks at the moment and haven't for a while. But the asset class would have my highest recommendation for anyone seriously looking to invest. As I stated in another thread, I believe all asset classes, including PMs, are overvalued. I have no agenda. This is a public forum. And I am posting whatever I feel like in the context of the rules of the forum. I have no idea why you are so defensive but that's your problem, not mine.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,068 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I understand Baley's approach, and I know where cohodk is coming from - so I welcome their comments. We each have something to learn. You haven't offered anything but criticisms and disparaging commentary since you've been here.

    So, let's hear your reasoning and a little backup.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • FSFFSF Posts: 280 ✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    I'll buy that as I'm not trying to get personal.

    But, you did. Let's hear your reasoning, if you are so sure of your opinions.

    No, I clearly didn't. You just took it that way.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,068 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "holy grail"

    "very young"

    "religiously-read"

    "knucklehead"

    = attempts to marginalize

    Now that we've cleared that up, why do you think all assets are overvalued at this time?

    You don't think that the dollar is overvalued?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,068 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I have to go now, but I'll look forward to reading your reasoning on the matter.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • FSFFSF Posts: 280 ✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    "holy grail"

    "very young"

    "religiously-read"

    "knucklehead"

    = attempts to marginalize

    Now that we've cleared that up, why do you think all assets are overvalued at this time?

    You don't think that the dollar is overvalued?

    So every time you state things like "manipulated", "saving dollars" and on and on, you're not doing the same?

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 20,605 ✭✭✭✭✭

    We're all just chitchating and bs-ing, it's much more fun when it's about concepts and the way the world works, than about each other.

    Criticizing us is what our families are for, and what we come here to get away from!

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭✭

    @Baley said:

    @derryb said:
    collapse is a process, not an event. The camel's back can take one more straw. . . until it can't. The 22 trillion straws are gaining weight.

    That's what They said at 1, 5, 10, 15, 20 trillion, and every straw in between. And what they'll be saying at 25, 30, 50, 100... long after everyone reading this is gone.

    $100 trillion yes, unless there's a 10 year-old reading. It will be interesting to see $50 trillion though and those of us alive 20 years from now will find out.

    I agree with cohodk's Japan analogy. That's where it's headed near term. Long term........?

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,068 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2018 2:28PM

    I'll look forward to reading your reasoning on the matter.

    Still waiting.

    So every time you state things like "manipulated", "saving dollars" and on and on, you're not doing the same?

    Nope, I'm not making those comments about other posters or to disparage them.

    Please advise why you believe that all assets are overvalued at this time. Does that mean you think dollars (and bonds, i.e. - debt instruments) are the best place to retain purchasing power?

    Why?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • FSFFSF Posts: 280 ✭✭✭

    To begin with, I mentioned no specific posters and didn't even have you in mind so once again, none of it was personal. When one has to defend a site called "didthesystemcollapse.com", yes I think it is ridiculous that people would pay much attention to these and other various conspiracy type websites when there are plenty of rational folks that speak on these issues in a more intelligible, and not looking to empty-your-pocket manner.

    I'm not sure why you think I owe you any sort of an explanation for anything but to tickle your curiosity bone this one time, I will give you my viewpoints on what you ask.

    Yes, I think cash is king for the foreseeable future, and the fact that you can earn close to 3% now will make it all the more enticing for more and more people in the short term. That will cause some strain on liquidity further adding to declines. Stocks will likely decline and a lot from this levels, though I expect plenty of short-term opportunities for hit-and-run gains. I've explained much of this in the "bear market" thread in the coin forum, though I could have gone on and on so I won't repeat it here.

    No I don't like bonds but that's not because I think interest rates will spike from here in the short-term. So I'm not necessarily inclined to believe that bonds are overvalued but the risk you take on if you go further out in duration is not worth the potential benefit. So on a risk adjusted basis, yes I think bonds are overvalued. I would just rather be in cash if one is going to be in bonds.

    As for PMs, there is not any quantifiable method that can be employed to justify its under or over valuation. I personally always compare the total value of gold above ground to what the value of the stock market and/or real estate is at. And I don't like it all at these levels. When the market goes down, and sometimes violently, as I expect it will, I do potentially see a short term PM increase, not that much and for not that long. But one way or another, I do expect to see triple digits on gold sometime in the future. In 2011, I believe the value of all gold was worth more than every U.S. business in existence. You can decide for yourself if that makes any good sense. Personally, I think that is completely ridiculous.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,068 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2018 4:33PM

    Nobody expressed a devotion to that website. What I find interesting is that it gives a fairly good picture of arbitrage between the dollar and the yuan - in terms of the precious metals. It's interesting to see it in realtime. That's all.

    I agree that it's good to have a cash reserve, I don't know that it's king so much as it is a reasonable hedge. I don't think interest rates will spike, but I do think that they will continue to rise until there's a problem with liquidity and a stock market decline. That's wherein the problem lies.

    If you are nimble with short term stock trades in a volatile market, more power to ya. I don't like bonds either, but it's not because of a poor risk/reward ratio - it's because there is simply nowhere to run between out-of-control debt and rising rates.

    Do you hold your stocks in certificate form and in your name? Is the stock listed in the clearing house name? Electronic trading is all so easy, until it stops. How many flash crashes have there been now?

    I don't see much value in comparing the total value of above ground gold to the values of the stock market or the real estate market because they simply aren't the same types of assets and they each have different characteristics and are traded differently.

    Which brings us to the case for precious metals. Given that all markets are manipulated and that the politicians & banking system don't function with our best interests in mind, in most cases I'll take the precious metals over paper "assets". Prices fluctuate - they always have - but I'll be surprised if gold makes it to 3 digit territory anytime soon, unless the stock market crashes by 60%. Then, it's possible I suppose.

    There's no holy grail and no conspiracy here. The issues are debt, derivatives, HFT and corruption in the system. Pick your poison. I know what I trust, and what I don't. Thanks for the response.

    In 2011, I believe the value of all gold was worth more than every U.S. business in existence.

    That's a new one on me. First time I've ever heard that. One of the big arguments against using gold as money is "there isn't enough gold" to support the economy. It's nonsense, but that's the argument.

    You do realize, I hope, that the bond market completely dwarfs the stock market in total value, and it's the bond market that's in trouble on multiple levels.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 15,217 ✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2018 4:33PM

    Bid/Ask 1089.80 / 1279.80
    Low/High 1089.80 / 1281.40
    Change -190.60 -14.89%

    per kitco. computer glitch or major hacking?

    Not so...per kitco:

    Did gold really go down 190.60?
    Yes. The stronger US Dollar was responsible for 19.20 of that drop.
    Gold price Decrease due to Strengthening of USD-19.20Gold price Change due to Predominant Sellers -171.40Gold Price: Total Change-190.60

    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • atomatom Posts: 134 ✭✭✭


    If the stock Markets tank why can’t gold?

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,068 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Ain't that peculiar?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 26,096 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2018 5:02PM

    shoulda bought the dip.

    Gold is the money of kings. Silver is the money of gentlemen. Barter is the money of peasants. And debt is the money of slaves.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 26,096 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Ain't that peculiar?

    Not a peculiar as the silver action.

    Gold is the money of kings. Silver is the money of gentlemen. Barter is the money of peasants. And debt is the money of slaves.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,068 ✭✭✭✭✭

    reminiscent of the Pink Floyd album cover......

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • FSFFSF Posts: 280 ✭✭✭

    jmski, I think you are conflating the notion of how shares are held and the notion of flash crashes. I don't think they are related but haven't given much thought to it. I see no good reason not to hold in the broker's name for various reasons and there hasn't been any issues as far as I'm aware. I'm quite aware that the bond market is much larger than the stock market. Not sure what specific point you want to make with that.

    Here is what I plan on personally doing with my money. This is going to be long. Since this is an anonymous forum and I don't plan on sharing my personal details with anyone, I will give you the gory details of numbers and timing and all of it because it's too difficult to talk in theory and philosophy and even harder to digest for the reader.

    As for cash, I'm not the kind of guy that thinks 3-6 months or even a year is a good policy. I'm the kind of guy that plans on never going below $500K. However, if an opportunity presents itself, like October 19, 1987, then I may utilize as much as half of that.

    Here is what I plan on doing with my money. This may not work so well if you are over 50 or 60 but there's a school of thought that regardless of age, you should have a good chunk in stocks, which I do mostly share. I am in my mid 40s and for the first time in my life, feel like I have an opportunity and the money to put in place a good long term equity holding strategy. I thought this in 2009 to some extent but could not have ever thought that tarp, endless employment benefits, Fed buying treasuries, etc. would interject to derail what I was getting ready to do.

    I need to keep it real simple so I will be compiling a core holding, to never sell, around just VT, which is Vanguard's World Stock Market ETF, with about 55% US, 35% Foreign advanced countries, and about 10% Emerging Markets. It rearranges so the percentage could be a couple points off either way. I don't personally feel comfortable putting everything in the U.S. basket. It's currently at about $65 with an all time high of just under $80 about a year ago.

    While I'm sure I will hold short and mid-term holdings of various other ETFs and individuals stocks, the "core" holding will be whatever amount of VT shares I have. My intention is to accumulate 30,000 shares over the next 12-24 months and I believe that I will have that opportunity to average cost at around mid $50s, which assumes a $1.7M investment. The dividends alone will provide about 20,000 extra shares by the time I retire. So I will have about 50,000 shares upon retirement, assuming I don't invest anymore in VT, which may or may not happen. However, I will have to pay 50% in taxes for the dividends so I have to pony up another $500K to get those shares through tax payments over the next 20+ years. I'm good with that and quite frankly like it a lot as it will be a forced dollar cost averaging into stocks. All of this assumes I can trade properly and the markets "cooperate" to a fair extent. I think by mid to late Spring, the market will be much lower than where it is today.

    Now ignoring everything else, let's look at just that holding, it will conservatively pay probably at least $250K per year in dividends by the time I retire. Could be as high as $300-400K. Very unlikely to think that it would be much lower than $250K. I'm very conservative in my outlook. So it will provide a wonderful annuity, even though the purchasing power is maybe $100-150K. Now I realize currencies can blow up and what not but I feel more confident in owning stocks than anything else in that scenario including PMs, except maybe during the short amount of time that the black swan event it is going on. And the shares themselves, even assuming a very conservative perspective should be worth $200. But at $200, the shares would be worth $10M plus it will churn out realistically $250K-$300K per year. I'm fine with $150 which would be $7.5M and not even represent a doubling from the prior peak over 22-23 years. The dividends won't really be subject to what the price is.

    Now let's contrast that with if I decided to buy 1300 ounces of gold or so. I would be sitting on them waiting and hoping for that astronomical pop and wishing I know the right time to exit. Because the only two times that it has gone on a real ride, it did not leave a lot of time to sell. This seems like a very bad risk/benefit scenario to me. While it's by no means impossible that gold would be the better avenue, I think the odds are substantially against it. Which is why every money manager will tell you to limit your exposure to no more than 10%. Now I plan on maybe having a couple/few hundred ounces regardless depending on price, but as an investment vehicle and a financial growth strategy, it does not make any sense to me.

    Bottom line is, unlike PMs, the compounding and DCA effect of stocks makes them a wonderful vehicle, assuming valuations aren't too far out of line, which unfortunately has not been the case most of my adult life. I'm hoping, and genuinely expecting, that the time has finally arrived. If it hasn't, I'm good with keeping mostly a cash portfolio for the next several years.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,068 ✭✭✭✭✭

    No conflating two independent variables here. Your plan involves wishing and hoping, along with good timing. Just to be clear, nobody's saying that stocks don't have growth potential. Past history says otherwise. But, past history says a lot of other things as well.

    I wish you well in your endeavors.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • FSFFSF Posts: 280 ✭✭✭

    While the future always contains some amount hoping and wishing for everyone in every context, where economies and business are concerned, I think it's a lot more than that and that "forecasting" is predominantly what's at play here. I want to emphasize that my expectations are well well below historical norms. I think there is a good reason to be conservative but I think I'm going even beyond that. I'm not so much concerned about the outcome, but rather my personal inability to buy in at the right price. The end should be there unless we want to assume apocalyptic scenarios in first world nations. Of course, with Putin, Un, Trump, etc. out there, I suppose that shouln't be totally discounted.

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 20,605 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Time for an updated asset allocation thread!

    28% real estate 37% stocks 14% coins 9% cash 12% other semi liquid tangible (vehicles, guns, gems, art, antiques, artifacts)

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • FSFFSF Posts: 280 ✭✭✭

    I realize you're just joking but why do coins have their own asset class and aren't thrown in with liquid tangibles?

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 20,605 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2018 6:23PM

    Because they're way, way more liquid, as well as worth more than all the other "stuff" put together. All of us on here love our gold and silver, while only some of us don't hate stocks and rental property.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • renman95renman95 Posts: 6,568 ✭✭✭✭

    @Baley said:
    Time for an updated asset allocation thread!

    28% real estate 37% stocks 14% coins 9% cash 12% other semi liquid tangible (vehicles, guns, gems, art, antiques, artifacts)

    I'd include 2% pineapples in that 12% mix.

    HE>i


    -, 29, 1, 50, 25, 23, 28
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 20,605 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2018 7:05PM

    If counting perishables, we're overweighted oranges at present.
    Huge citrus glut here. Juicing makes them more liquid.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 19,068 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Nice screen captures, derryb. The kitco charts have now been "massaged".

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,145 ✭✭✭✭

    Less than 24 hours to go....unless you're in China, where I suppose the system has collapsed. Can anyone confirm if China is still there? Is there murder in the streets? Who has the peach pit?

    PS....I love this place. Carry on. 😀🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

    Master of Puppets----AKA The Boogeyman.
    "Troll"er of Mis-information and Lies
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 15,145 ✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Nice screen captures, derryb. The kitco charts have now been "massaged".

    Massaged or messaged?

    Master of Puppets----AKA The Boogeyman.
    "Troll"er of Mis-information and Lies
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • bigjpstbigjpst Posts: 2,417 ✭✭✭✭

    Looks almost like an oscilloscope capture of an ignition system. Maybe someone was trying to diagnose a misfire in his old Chevy and posted the wrong capture. :p

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