What is going on with the market??
PTVETTER
Posts: 5,998 ✭✭✭✭✭
Both the medals and coin market seem to be loosing steam.
What are your thoughts on this issue???????
Pat Vetter,Mercury Dime registry set,1938 Proof set registry,Pat & BJ Coins:724-325-7211
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the low pm prices are not helping anything
We are at the end of a nice boom period. Next few years should make for some nice buying opportunities. I'm remaining on the optimistic side for prices after that. We've seen it before and they will go up again.
Well I jumped out of the daily stock trading to collecting coins. I buy high and sell low in the stocks. Now it looks like the same, sorry.
One thing I noticed is that as the world economy improves the metals drops in value.
I also believe that major banks may have something to due with setting metal values, but not collector coins.
I am seeing the nicer stuff just going up and up, but the coin market is changing and I do not think it will come back everything evolves and changes. People use to have money to do the extra but that is different now and going to get worse for the mid range coins and below it is a new world.
I'm guessing you meant to say "metals" & not medals, because there hasn't been a major market for medals in years. Metals & coins for that matter, have been in a downward spiral for several years, with occasional swings in the PM market anywhere from 5 - 25% was not uncommon. I suspect that trend will continue in the foreseeable future.
Slabbed coins have been in a prolonged skid. Having said that, I seem to be getting outbid more frequently which indicates some moves off the bottom.
I am busier than ever.
PM's have almost no effect on major error coins.
I suspect you are correct, but that is a minuscule portion of the coin market.
People die. Confused collectors quit, then die. Jaded new collectors, quit, forget, then die. Potential collectors see a beat-up common dime in a plastic slab priced at $15 and run away, forget, then die.
Much lower silver and gold prices would return common coins to more reasonable prices. Elimination of the TPG fad would reduce common coin prices to more realistic availability-based pricing.
I was just wondering the same thing. It seems like some sections of the coin market are doing alright though. Recent auctions are bringing in strong prices for some pieces.
Toned peace dollars in major dealer hands are seeing insane asks and auctions getting nice hammers. I tell myself to sell every day and just cant bring myself to do it.
You think the world economy is improving? Have you seen what is happening in the EU with the Italian banks?
You said it brother. Sad but true.
I cannot speak for the selling side of the market... but for coins I have been interested in, the prices are still high, with no signs of decreasing. I hear all the sad tales of woe here, but reviewing pricing, I do not see anyone trying to move inventory. Since I do not 'need' any coins, but 'want' a few, I will wait a bit.
Cheers, RickO
Pat, I have been answering these questions and stating this fact for years now but it is like "preaching to the choir" who all seem to be "whistling past the graveyard" going on five years now. people refuse to accept that we are now a World Economy and that other economy conglomerates like the EU are rivals, not political rivals but economic rivals. I think the days are gone where America can dictate economic policy on the World Stage.
as for coins, how long did you expect things to be up-up-up-up-up??? everybody rode the train for about 15 years so now we've pulled into the station. I can only hope that dealers, promoters and coin shows get off so the train can get going again, but it will take time. people hate to lose money and coin dealers are no exception. I know my boss right now is fit to be tied but everyone made a lot of money since 1999-2000 so there shouldn't be that much anxiety.
get rid of that stale material you have, especially key dates in collector grades. isn't it better to take a small loss now than a stubbornly bigger loss down the road?? get used to PM's falling even lower before they rise or else get out if you can't wait. buy nice, attractive coins that you KNOW you can resell. if you look at estates or entire collections, don't feel obligated to buy all the junk to get the good stuff --- let the dealer down the road tie up all his money if a seller won't cooperate and agree with that strategy.
Widespread counterfeiting of collector coins has increased the need for the TPG authentication service. The real turn-off these days is the need for another paid grade approval in the form of a sticker to realize what a coin is worth. I think this sticker factor is driving away more collectors than most realize.
Generally speaking, I think the market has been doing an incredibly good job of taking coins to appropriate levels. Unfortunately for most collectors, more prices needed to fall than needed to rise.
As for the future, I think that the economy will continue to expand and that the death of the middle class is greatly exaggerated.
My advice is to collect things that you like and that make sense to you at current levels, and hold for the long term.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
An yet I was bidding on an Andrew Johnson, mint made presidential medal, and the bids shot up to $750, $937.50 with the buyers' fee, which was at least three times what I thought the item was worth. Of course every time I bid on something, it often goes nuts. Still crazy strong prices do happen.
https://historical.ha.com/itm/political/andrew-johnson-handsome-us-mint-medal-by-barber/a/6183-43544.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515
It's been five bad years for the greater 'coin market', that's pretty certain. Of course, a nice, scarce coin is still a joy to own, if you have the numismatic fever.
Lots of people gone now too, 'though many of those folks would have departed in a certain time frame regardless.
I sometimes think what are organizations doing to promote the hobby?
I believe that putting out coin folders and free coin out is doing little if anything for the hobby.
In this time what is being spent on cell phones and games for preteens?
Let's look at things differently and try a new approach!
Been doing gold IRAs for clients. Must be bottoming out.
Right!
Yet, whenever new options and ideas are presented, most seem to become defensive or stick their heads in the sand. There have been a couple of younger coin business people who have posted here and elsewhere, and the reaction has largely been to close the mind and reject anything that they say.
The recent ANA convention is another example. One of the most positive comments was that they put down carpet in the "premium" section. Like almost all "coin shows" this one was aimed at the "Seven Dwarfs." nothing much was more than 3-feet off the floor and even aisle identification was on the floor, not up at eye-level....well, maybe the floor is "eye-level" now.
Is coin collecting a real hobby any more? Is amateur telescope making a current hobby? Is amateur radio building a hobby?
High quality is doing well, both US and foreign. I'm having to pay up to buy best of the foreign that I want. Most coins on the market now are crap, and the prices reflect that.
Sadly, it seems the days of any real growth in the number of participants in this hobby are long behind us. Young people aren't as interested in something as "static" as coin collecting. They are connected (literally) to the interactive pursuits offered by modern technology. Add in the diminishing use of coins/currency in their everyday lives and the outlook is bleak. The top tier of the market will do well. The vast majority of numismatic material, the stuff more available to the average collector, will see interest continue to decline. I can't envision anything that would reverse this trend.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me....
It’s oversupply due to decreasing collector population. The market wb on uptick when investors return.
Other factors are spending on cars, travel, girls.....
I finally have bid competition instead of easy wins / so improvemrnt in wind?
When I began collecting in the 1950's, the Mint absorbed a few million $ per year from collectors for proof sets and mint sets. Today that's a drop in the bucket compared to how many collector dollars are spent annually on a seemingly endless supply of Mint offerings. That doesn't leave much money for collectors to spend on "classic" coins.
Plus the number of serious collectors is shrinking, as people today have many more interesting alternative hobbies that compete for their attention and money.
What happened to stamps could happen to coins, although probably not to the same extent.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Every time this comes up, I say it. So, to be consistent, I'll say it again.
Look at the stamp market. It is instructive.
Look at ANA membership over the past 10 years. Look at APS membership in the late 1990s.
First off, I have my dads somewhat rare mint state stamp collection. Must be worth hundreds by now
That Said.
Stamps are paper. Coins are metal.
Coins are money.
edit
In my observations as a dealer, coins that are "special" move quick at fair money. Anything toned, very well struck, "better than average" for the issue, popular key dates etc.
Common widgets such as mid ms Morgan's, classic commems, white mid ms walkers, are tough sales.
About 19 and a half years ago about a quadrillion state quarter collectors were created who long ago left collecting. But some were influenced in the back of their brain. They will start collecting in about 17 minutes from now and will be a whole new mature but young generation of collectors.
easy answer: supply of collectible coins far exceeds the demand for them: go to collectors corner & see how many 78-cc morgans for sale
x 1,000?
add in ebay then it’s
Could it be that 78-CC’s are overpriced?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I doubt it. Look at the buying prices of a national dealer for 78-cc
morgans:
BU 1878 CC $ PAY GSA (BOX/COA) = $525 ~ (W/O BOX/COA) = $490 ~ RAW/BU = $325 ~ AU/UNC = $ 150
1878- CC G/VG $ 60 F/VF $85 XF $100
What and when was this "nice boom" period for coins? For 95% of coins out there, prices have dropped in the last decade. Even ultra rarities haven't been totally immune.
Most "collectible" U.S. coins aren't remotely rare. I'm not convinced that the market correction is done.
Actually, you just provedmy point. The king of hobbies was always stamps not coins
https://www.moneylife.in/article/philately-king-of-hobbies-and-hobby-of-kings/16006.html
You are correct and I was wrong. I remembered it incorrectly. Thank you. I love Facts. I stand corrected.
The "dreck" has come home to roost.
Current prices alone tell you nothing about whether a coin is overpriced or underpriced. To determine that, you need to compare the price of the coin to the price of other coins, and to other things in general. Not an easy thing to do, and never black and white. It's a judgment call. That said, a shortage or glut of coins being offered at or near "current levels" can be a very good clue as to what other people think about the current price levels.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I agree that many things still need to correct to the downside. However, common coins are still collected and they can go up or down in price just as easily as rarer coins do.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
the basic concept of economics rules in almost everything. in general, including the coin market & the stock mkt. if demand exceeds supply prices go up, & vice versa, ie price is set.
of course there are exceptions.
if I see a national dealer buying certain (widget coins), then I’m comfortable, confident the price of 78-cc Morgans is set.
I thought Philately had that distinction.
You are correct, please look 6 posts up
With regards to the coin market, my view is that availability of information, financial pressure on families, and increasing business aspect of coins is driving the average collector out of the market.
With information online, people at all price levels can research and search either the lowest price or best value, lowering prices of common material. They also can readily find out what resale would get them. In my view, this really impacts the entire mid level market...
Because, if you want to collect, your collection will eventually take up some portion of your net worth/assets. Albeit potentially smalll, many families can’t tie up between 1000-10000 dollars in a non performing asset. And if you can afford that or more, even middle class want to invest in items that will at least hold their value. I look at what happened to stamps and collections that were handed down to me, and worry that mid level coins will suffer the same fate. I don’t believe that the next generation is as interested in coins, so I struggle with investing in coins or investing in memories ( such as taking family on extra special trips) .
Lastly, with the businesses involved in the hobby, and the drive to increase profits, the auction companies fees, the tag grading fees, the dealer margin, all these add up to make it harder for a simple collector to break even or minimize losses.
I am likely a collector that in the past, would have been increasing my collection as my discretionary income goes up. Moving from the $100-700 coins to $1000-2500 coins, however , do to the reasons above, I find the amount of money I want to invest in coins remaining stagnant, I find the enjoyment in the research and hunt, so instead, sell stuff I would have normally held onto, and pursue different avenues such as civil war tokens and some world coins, where I get the same enjoyment, but don’t feel thAt I will lose as much money in resale or tie up as much of my net worth.
Just my 2 cents
What and when was this "nice boom" period for coins
it started around 1999-2000 and lasted till late 2011-2012.
I don't think we're talking the same language here. How would you define "overpriced"?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.