For me... metals are just flat right now. I call it a correction from the gains of the last two or three weeks. Watching metals on a daily basis will drive you to the loony bin.
A surging U.S. dollar index that hit an 11-month high today is working against the precious metals markets, mainly because we slapped new import tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the U.S today
@coinpalice said:
A surging U.S. dollar index that hit an 11-month high today is working against the precious metals markets, mainly because we slapped new import tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the U.S today
not sure, but I think the ECB (Europe) announced they were going to keep rates at 0% til Summer of 2019 even tho European inflation is showing its head between 1.9 and 2.9 percent per year. Low rates in Europe and higher inflation caused the Euro to fall and the Dollar to rise because in the US we are raising rates. (our inflation is also rising).
It was a knee jerk reaction by the metals in dollar terms to drop (i personally think that it's part that and part manipulation tho). Silver has been in the $16 range for a long time. Not sure its going to crawl its way out until all the manipulation in the "paper markets" (metals futures contracts) ends.
Eventually I think both gold and silver will rise (silver potentially a lot), but I think it might take years instead of months. JMHO
@coinpalice said:
A surging U.S. dollar index that hit an 11-month high today is working against the precious metals markets, mainly because we slapped new import tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the U.S today
How would tariffs make the dollar stronger?
In the long run they don't. Protectionism (tariffs) historically weakens the currency because of the countermeasures (trade wars) imposed by the nations being attacked with tariffs. Trade wars are historically good for precious metal prices.
@coinpalice said:
A surging U.S. dollar index that hit an 11-month high today is working against the precious metals markets, mainly because we slapped new import tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the U.S today
I'm not sure about the tariffs
The ECB ending QE caused a big euro sell off. 1.17 and change to 1.15 and change, and now low 1.16.
I was surprised it did not sell off on Thursday. I did not sell some gold and now I'm out about 2.5%
Tariffs are fine if you happen to hold the currency of last resort. Trade wars are fine if you hold the currency of last resort. Maybe getting rid of your industries is bad if you have a trade war, thank god that never happened here
Oh great... the lobster will now be cheaper here....These tariff issues will continue for a while until our trading partners realize that zero tariffs for all will be the better way to go.... Cheers, RickO
@ricko said:
Oh great... the lobster will now be cheaper here....These tariff issues will continue for a while until our trading partners realize that zero tariffs for all will be the better way to go.... Cheers, RickO
To some degree, perhaps, but US made products cannot compete with cheap labor from 3d world countries. What is the solution for those products?
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
It would be enlightening to see lists of all the tariffs that all of our trading partners impose. Not knowing that makes it harder to form opinions. Does anyone have a good source? I suppose the Dept. of Commerce? I suspect that I would agree with Ricko.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@coinpalice said:
A surging U.S. dollar index that hit an 11-month high today is working against the precious metals markets, mainly because we slapped new import tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the U.S today
How would tariffs make the dollar stronger?
The fed moved last week and raised the fed funds rate .
They will continue to do so . That makes the dollar stronger when I rates go up .
But you knew that .
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Could be any one of a number of reasons that have been stating. Anyone claiming to know exactly why gold fell a whole $25 per ounce is giving you shit.
@CoinPhysicist said:
Could be any one of a number of reasons that have been stating. Anyone claiming to know exactly why gold fell a whole $25 per ounce is giving you shit.
@jmski52 said:
It would be enlightening to see lists of all the tariffs that all of our trading partners impose. Not knowing that makes it harder to form opinions. Does anyone have a good source? I suppose the Dept. of Commerce? I suspect that I would agree with Ricko.
I have a few international sales on ebay, and the duties can be very high, despite the item (US coins) having zero competitive impact. UK was nearly 40%, Canada was 25%, Belgium was nearly 40%, Hong Kong was 30% or so. Oddly, Russia is zero up to $700 in value (?), Australia is zero, and Indonesia ( I think it was) is zero. Curiosity piqued, I could not find a good summary, as it is VERY complex and full of caveats across the globe. On some items, Brazil , India and others impose a !00 % tariff.
When there are so many variables that are up in the air with no assurance of a positive outcome, I'd say that the general trend would point towards a liquidation phase for most assets. We haven't reached the panic stage, but recall that in 2008, everything dropped when the Lehman/Indybank/Fannie/Freddie/debt crisis erupted - real estate, gold, stocks, and corporate bonds all went south. Treasuries gained as rates dropped while investors sought "safety" even in the face of negative yields on some maturities.
As I understand things, there is a lot more leverage in the market now than then, and it was massive then. Furthermore, nothing from 2008 got fixed in terms of issuance of highly-leveraged derivative contracts with the passage of Dodd-Frank, and so the same situation exists now in an even bigger way. I'm speculating that a number of these contracts will blow up from non-performance as rates rise and liquidity is withdrawn from the markets while QE is being phased out. Libor will then jump due to lack of trust between the big banks - this, on top of the normal rise in rates due to withdrawal of QE.
So, everything will get tighter and the dollar will climb as a liquidity crunch develops, which will be reflected in the price of the metals going lower.
However, the next thing in 2008 that happened is the general realization that higher rates are a harbinger of rising inflation (in addition to gold being a hard asset) and that's when gold made it's recovery - long before the stock market even showed a heartbeat.
The devil of it is that we don't get to know what's going on behind the scenes. We never do. I'm waiting for Mnuchin to stand before the House with a one-pager document and ask the House for an easy $2 Trillion, just to get us over the hump, and to apply another bandaid - kinda like Paulson did in his nervous, stuttering way.
At that point, the only "fix" is to authorize more imaginary money with more keystrokes. Lots more. What we don't know is how fast the defaults will happen and whether or not the reaction to fix it will be fast enough. We don't know how big the bandaid will need to be or even whether the wound can be cauterized at all. HFT can be a beach, even in the fantasy money world.
If the "fix" does temporarily work (again), rates will go lower (again) and more debt will be swept under the rug in the banking system. Problem is, there's enough pushback internationally now against the dollar that the debt is becoming more and more obvious as the ponzi scheme that it's always been.
Got precious metals?
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For me... metals are just flat right now. I call it a correction from the gains of the last two or three weeks. Watching metals on a daily basis will drive you to the loony bin.
Yikes!!!
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Over reaction to a possible trade war with China & the E.U.
gravity...or what goes up must come back down... something like that
All this tariff talk? or the normal cycles we see every day, month, decade.
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A surging U.S. dollar index that hit an 11-month high today is working against the precious metals markets, mainly because we slapped new import tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the U.S today
I bought five double eagles this morning. Sorry.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Ouch!
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How would tariffs make the dollar stronger?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
not sure, but I think the ECB (Europe) announced they were going to keep rates at 0% til Summer of 2019 even tho European inflation is showing its head between 1.9 and 2.9 percent per year. Low rates in Europe and higher inflation caused the Euro to fall and the Dollar to rise because in the US we are raising rates. (our inflation is also rising).
It was a knee jerk reaction by the metals in dollar terms to drop (i personally think that it's part that and part manipulation tho). Silver has been in the $16 range for a long time. Not sure its going to crawl its way out until all the manipulation in the "paper markets" (metals futures contracts) ends.
Eventually I think both gold and silver will rise (silver potentially a lot), but I think it might take years instead of months. JMHO
Nobody actually knows.
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In the long run they don't. Protectionism (tariffs) historically weakens the currency because of the countermeasures (trade wars) imposed by the nations being attacked with tariffs. Trade wars are historically good for precious metal prices.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I'm not sure about the tariffs
The ECB ending QE caused a big euro sell off. 1.17 and change to 1.15 and change, and now low 1.16.
I was surprised it did not sell off on Thursday. I did not sell some gold and now I'm out about 2.5%
Tariffs are fine if you happen to hold the currency of last resort. Trade wars are fine if you hold the currency of last resort. Maybe getting rid of your industries is bad if you have a trade war, thank god that never happened here
China has threatened a 25% tariff on Maine lobster.....bad for the industry ..... good for the local lobster junkies
Oh great... the lobster will now be cheaper here....These tariff issues will continue for a while until our trading partners realize that zero tariffs for all will be the better way to go.... Cheers, RickO
To some degree, perhaps, but US made products cannot compete with cheap labor from 3d world countries. What is the solution for those products?
It would be enlightening to see lists of all the tariffs that all of our trading partners impose. Not knowing that makes it harder to form opinions. Does anyone have a good source? I suppose the Dept. of Commerce? I suspect that I would agree with Ricko.
I knew it would happen.
The fed moved last week and raised the fed funds rate .
They will continue to do so . That makes the dollar stronger when I rates go up .
But you knew that .
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
tariffs are no surprise, they were promised. An example of applying business models to government. Now. . . about that swamp. . .
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Could be any one of a number of reasons that have been stating. Anyone claiming to know exactly why gold fell a whole $25 per ounce is giving you shit.
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Word.
They can always eat toilet fish(tilapia)
Silver dropped almost 5% in 6 hours yesterday. Plop.
I have a few international sales on ebay, and the duties can be very high, despite the item (US coins) having zero competitive impact. UK was nearly 40%, Canada was 25%, Belgium was nearly 40%, Hong Kong was 30% or so. Oddly, Russia is zero up to $700 in value (?), Australia is zero, and Indonesia ( I think it was) is zero. Curiosity piqued, I could not find a good summary, as it is VERY complex and full of caveats across the globe. On some items, Brazil , India and others impose a !00 % tariff.
Interesting observation by Gary Wagner...It appears it was multiple reasons.
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-06-15/Is-There-a-Straw-That-Broke-the-Camel-s-Back.html
When there are so many variables that are up in the air with no assurance of a positive outcome, I'd say that the general trend would point towards a liquidation phase for most assets. We haven't reached the panic stage, but recall that in 2008, everything dropped when the Lehman/Indybank/Fannie/Freddie/debt crisis erupted - real estate, gold, stocks, and corporate bonds all went south. Treasuries gained as rates dropped while investors sought "safety" even in the face of negative yields on some maturities.
As I understand things, there is a lot more leverage in the market now than then, and it was massive then. Furthermore, nothing from 2008 got fixed in terms of issuance of highly-leveraged derivative contracts with the passage of Dodd-Frank, and so the same situation exists now in an even bigger way. I'm speculating that a number of these contracts will blow up from non-performance as rates rise and liquidity is withdrawn from the markets while QE is being phased out. Libor will then jump due to lack of trust between the big banks - this, on top of the normal rise in rates due to withdrawal of QE.
So, everything will get tighter and the dollar will climb as a liquidity crunch develops, which will be reflected in the price of the metals going lower.
However, the next thing in 2008 that happened is the general realization that higher rates are a harbinger of rising inflation (in addition to gold being a hard asset) and that's when gold made it's recovery - long before the stock market even showed a heartbeat.
The devil of it is that we don't get to know what's going on behind the scenes. We never do. I'm waiting for Mnuchin to stand before the House with a one-pager document and ask the House for an easy $2 Trillion, just to get us over the hump, and to apply another bandaid - kinda like Paulson did in his nervous, stuttering way.
At that point, the only "fix" is to authorize more imaginary money with more keystrokes. Lots more. What we don't know is how fast the defaults will happen and whether or not the reaction to fix it will be fast enough. We don't know how big the bandaid will need to be or even whether the wound can be cauterized at all. HFT can be a beach, even in the fantasy money world.
If the "fix" does temporarily work (again), rates will go lower (again) and more debt will be swept under the rug in the banking system. Problem is, there's enough pushback internationally now against the dollar that the debt is becoming more and more obvious as the ponzi scheme that it's always been.
Got precious metals?
I knew it would happen.
Discounts are trigger devices to let you know there are bigger discounts coming.